Prognostic model for overall survival of head and neck cancer patients in the palliative phase.

BACKGROUND: Patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) enter the palliative phase when cure is no longer possible or when they refuse curative treatment. The mean survival is five months, with a range of days until years. Realistic prognostic counseling enables patients to make well-considered end-of-life choices. However, physicians tend to overestimate survival. The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model that calculates the overall survival (OS) probability of palliative HNSCC patients. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with incurable HNSCC or patients who refused curative treatment for HNSCC between January 1st 2006 and June 3rd 2019 were included (n = 659). Three patients were lost to follow-up. Patients were considered to have incurable HNSCC due to tumor factors (e.g. inoperability with no other curative treatment options, distant metastasis) or patient factors (e.g. the presence of severe comorbidity and/or poor performance status).Tumor and patients factors accounted for 574 patients. An additional 82 patients refused curative treatment and were also considered palliative. The effect of 17 candidate predictors was estimated in the univariable cox proportional hazard regression model. Using backwards selection with a cut-off P-value < 0.10 resulted in a final multivariable prediction model. The C-statistic was calculated to determine the discriminative performance of the model. The final model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. RESULTS: A total of 647 patients (98.6%) died during follow-up. Median OS time was 15.0 weeks (95% CI: 13.5;16.6). Of the 17 candidate predictors, seven were included in the final model: the reason for entering the palliative phase, the number of previous HNSCC, cT, cN, cM, weight loss in the 6 months before diagnosis, and the WHO performance status. The internally validated C-statistic was 0.66 indicating moderate discriminative ability. The model showed some optimism, with a shrinkage factor of 0.89. CONCLUSION: This study enabled the development and internal validation of a prognostic model that predicts the OS probability in HNSCC patients in the palliative phase. This model facilitates personalized prognostic counseling in the palliative phase. External validation and qualitative research are necessary before widespread use in patient counseling and end-of-life care.

Causes and Ways of Death in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer.

Importance: There is limited literature on the exact causes and ways of death in patients with head and neck cancer. To provide optimal care, especially in the palliative phase, more information on this is needed. Objective: To provide insights into the causes and ways of death among patients with head and neck cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included a consecutive population of patients who received a diagnosis of primary squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck between January 2006 and December 2013 who were treated in the Erasmus MC. Patient data were merged with nonpublic microdata from Statistics Netherlands. Follow-up time was specified as the date of diagnosis until death or December 3, 2019, whichever came first. The data were checked and reanalyzed in November 2023. Main outcomes and Measures: Causes (eg, head and neck cancer, other cancer) and ways (eg, natural death, suicide) of death. Results: A total of 1291 patients (59.2%; 342 women [26.5%]) died during follow-up (median [IQR] follow-up, 2.7 [1.2-5.6] years). The main cause of death was head and neck cancer (557 [43.1%]), followed by the competing cause of other cancers (344 [26.6%]). In total, 240 patients (18.6%) received palliative sedation and 70 patients (5.4%) euthanasia. Compared with patients with head and neck cancer as the underlying cause of death, lower odds ratios (ORs) were observed for receiving palliative sedation (OR, 0.32 vs 0.07; 95% CI, 0.22-0.46 vs 0.03-0.12) and euthanasia (OR, 0.22 vs 0.01; 95% CI, 0.11-0.41 vs 0-0.107) in patients with other causes of death. Patients with a middle and high income had higher ORs for receiving palliative sedation (OR, 1.46 vs 1.86; 95% CI, 1.05-2.04 vs 1.22-2.85) or euthanasia (OR, 2.25 vs 3.37; 95% CI, 1.18-4.3, 1.6-7.12) compared with low-income patients. Retired patients had lower ORs for receiving palliative sedation or euthanasia compared with employed patients (OR, 0.56 vs 0.44; 95% CI, 0.39-0.8 vs 0.24-0.82). Conclusion and Relevance: The results of this cohort study suggest that more than half of the patients died of competing causes and palliative sedation and euthanasia were more common in patients with head and neck cancer as the underlying cause of death. Patients with a higher socioeconomic status had higher odds of receiving palliative sedation and euthanasia. These insights may support health care professionals in providing patient-centered care, especially for patients in the palliative phase.