Basic Reproduction Number (R0), Doubling Time, and Daily Growth Rate of the COVID-19 Epidemic: An Echological Study.

Introduction: In infectious diseases, there are essential indices used to describe the disease state. In this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number, R0, peak level, doubling time, and daily growth rate of COVID-19. Methods: This ecological study was conducted in 5 provinces of Iran. The daily numbers of new COVID-19 cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 were used to determine the basic reproduction number (R0), peak date, doubling time, and daily growth rates in all five provinces. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to estimate epidemiological parameters. Result: The highest and lowest number of deaths were observed in Hamedan (657 deaths) and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari (54 deaths) provinces, respectively. The doubling time of confirmed cases in Kermanshah and Hamedan ranged widely from 18.59 days (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.38, 20) to 76.66 days (95% CI: 56.36, 119.78). In addition, the highest daily growth rates of confirmed cases were observed in Kermanshah (0.037, 95% CI: 0.034, 0.039) and Sistan and Baluchestan (0.032, 95% CI: 0.030, 0.034) provinces. Conclusion: In light of our findings, it is imperative to tailor containment strategies to the unique epidemiological profiles of each region in order to effectively mitigate the spread and impact of COVID-19. The wide variation in doubling times underscores the importance of flexibility in public health responses. By adapting measures to local conditions, we can better address the evolving dynamics of the pandemic and safeguard the well-being of communities.

From Fax to Secure File Transfer Protocol: The 25-Year Evolution of Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance in England.

The purpose of syndromic surveillance is to provide early warning of public health incidents, real-time situational awareness during incidents and emergencies, and reassurance of the lack of impact on the population, particularly during mass gatherings. The United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) currently coordinates a real-time syndromic surveillance service that encompasses 6 national syndromic surveillance systems reporting on daily health care usage across England. Each working day, UKHSA analyzes syndromic data from over 200,000 daily patient encounters with the National Health Service, monitoring over 140 unique syndromic indicators, risk assessing over 50 daily statistical exceedances, and taking and recommending public health action on these daily. This English syndromic surveillance service had its origins as a small exploratory pilot in a single region of England in 1999 involving a new pilot telehealth service, initially reporting only on "cold or flu" calls. This pilot showed the value of syndromic surveillance in England, providing advanced warning of the start of seasonal influenza activity over existing laboratory-based surveillance systems. Since this initial pilot, a program of real-time syndromic surveillance has evolved from the single-system, -region, -indicator pilot (using manual data transfer methods) to an all-hazard, multisystem, automated national service. The suite of systems now monitors a wide range of syndromes, from acute respiratory illness to diarrhea to cardiac conditions, and is widely used in routine public health surveillance and for monitoring seasonal respiratory disease and incidents such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we describe the 25-year evolution of the English syndromic surveillance system, focusing on the expansion and improvements in data sources and data management, the technological and digital enablers, and novel methods of data analytics and visualization.

Activity pattern of Tityus serrulatus (Scorpiones: Buthidae) in an urban area in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

Tityus serrulatus Lutz & Mello (Scorpiones: Buthidae) is a scorpion endemic to Brazil adapted to synanthropic life, colonising and proliferating in the most populous urban areas in the country. Here, we evaluated its activity pattern in an urban cemetery in the municipality of Americana, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Additionally, we tested the effects of species reproduction and climatic seasons on the activity pattern. The Saudade Municipal Cemetery was sampled between 17:00 and 22:00 h during 455 nights from April 2006 to December 2013. The circular mean and the peak of activity were quantified for the total number of specimens, and for specimens with and without broods. Activity patterns were inferred using a rosette diagram. Circular analysis of variance was used to investigate if activity patterns changed across climatic seasons (wet and dry seasons). A total of 25,969 records (467 specimens with broods) were obtained in the field. The circular mean varied between 19:44 and 19:48 h, and the peak of activity occurred between 18:00 and 20:00 h for all groups. Peaks of activity differed from that recorded under laboratory conditions (between 21:00 and 23:00 h). Activity patterns did not differ for specimens with broods, suggesting that the reproductive condition does not alter the species activity pattern. The activity pattern differed between wet and dry seasons for all specimens and specimens without broods, but differences were small and probably biologically irrelevant, probably because the species tolerates a wide variation in abiotic conditions. Deepening the knowledge of the behaviour activity of T. serrulatus can have practical applications for health surveillance agencies, aiming to increase the effectiveness of scorpion control in urban areas.

Tityus serrulatus Lutz & Mello (Scorpiones: Buthidae) é um escorpião endêmico do Brasil adaptado à vida sinantrópica, colonizando e proliferando nas áreas urbanas mais populosas do país. Aqui avaliamos seu padrão de atividade em um cemitério urbano no município de Americana, estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Adicionalmente, testamos os efeitos da reprodução da espécie e das estações climáticas sobre o padrão de atividade. O Cemitério Municipal da Saudade foi amostrado entre 17:00 h e 22:00 h durante 455 noites, de abril de 2006 a dezembro de 2013. A média circular e o pico de atividade foram quantificados para o número total de espécimes, espécimes com e sem ninhadas. Os padrões de atividade foram inferidos usando um diagrama de roseta. Análises de variância circular foram utilizadas para investigar se os padrões de atividade mudavam com as estações climáticas (estações chuvosa e seca). Um total de 25.969 registros (467 espécimes com ninhadas) foram obtidos em campo. A média circular variou entre 19:44 h e 19:48 h e o pico de atividade ocorreu entre 18:00 h e 20:00 h para todos os grupos. Os picos de atividade diferiram dos registados em condições de laboratório (entre 21:00 h e 23:00 h). Os padrões de atividade não diferiram para os espécimes com ninhadas, sugerindo que a condição reprodutiva não altera o padrão de atividade da espécie. O padrão de atividade diferiu entre as estações chuvosa e seca para todos os espécimes e os espécimes sem ninhadas, mas as diferenças foram pequenas e provavelmente biologicamente irrelevantes, provavelmente porque a espécie tolera uma grande variação nas condições abióticas. Preencher lacunas sobre o comportamento de T. serrulatus pode ter aplicações práticas para órgãos de vigilância sanitária, visando aumentar a eficácia do controle de escorpiões em áreas urbanas.

Monitoring the sleep health of adults: a scoping review of routine national surveillance systems.

Study Objectives: The aims of this review were to identify existing national surveillance systems monitoring one or more domains of sleep health in adults, and to describe the specific sleep health indicators used. Methods: We systematically searched the gray and peer-reviewed literature for routinely conducted cross-sectional and longitudinal nationally representative health surveys that included the assessment of at least one domain of sleep health. The methodology involved: (1) targeted searches of the websites of national and international health agencies and statistics departments for 199 countries, (2) country-specific customized internet searches, and (3) country-specific electronic database searches of PubMed. Results: A total of 19 762 records were identified from both the gray and peer-reviewed literature. Sleep health surveillance at the national level was conducted by 51 countries (25.6%) across 69 national health surveys. Sleep quality (96.1% of countries that surveilled sleep) was the most frequently assessed followed by sleep duration (27.5%), sleep medication use (25.5%), sleep disorders (17.6%), daytime alertness (15.7%), sleep satisfaction (15.7%), and sleep timing (7.8%). Additionally, 34.8% of the surveys utilized multiple sleep health indicators. Conclusions: This study identified three significant gaps in the coverage of sleep health within national surveillance systems. Limited population sleep data in low- and middle-income countries, inconsistent use of sleep-related items in surveys and questionnaires, and substantial variability in the definitions of sleep health indicators. Advocacy for the inclusion of sleep health within national surveillance systems may be warranted given the important role sleep plays in public health.

Respiratory virus detection and sequencing from negative SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen tests.

Genomic epidemiology offers important insight into the transmission and evolution of respiratory viruses. We used metagenomic sequencing from negative SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests to identify a wide range of respiratory viruses and generate full genome sequences, offering a streamlined mechanism for broad respiratory virus genomic surveillance.

Epidemiology of sporadic and outbreak-associated hepatitis A infections in Ontario, Canada: A descriptive summary, 2015-2022.

Background: Hepatitis A is a disease of public health significance that typically causes acute, self-limiting infection. Understanding the risk factors and demographics associated with individual infections and outbreaks can guide public health communication and interventions. Objective: To assess the number of hepatitis A cases and outbreaks in Ontario from January 1, 2015, to November 22, 2022, and to identify common risk factors associated with sporadic and outbreak-associated infections in Ontario. Methods: Confirmed and probable hepatitis A cases reported between January 1, 2015, and November 22, 2022, were extracted from the Ontario electronic reporting system. Descriptive analyses were used to summarize and compare risk factors reported by sporadic and outbreak-associated hepatitis A cases. Annual rates of infection for individual public health units were calculated using annual population estimates for Ontario health regions. Results: During the study period, 938 cases of hepatitis A were reported in Ontario (an average annual rate of 0.9 cases per 100,000 population), with 31.3% (n=294) of cases linked to one of 18 unique outbreaks of hepatitis A. Four of 13 local outbreaks were associated with elementary school settings. Reported risk factors differed between sporadic cases (predominantly travel-related) and cases linked to known outbreaks (anal-oral contact, illicit drug use, diapering/assisting in toileting, close contact with a case). Rates of sporadic infection differed across public health units in Ontario over the study period. Conclusion: Public health interventions that aim to increase awareness of hepatitis A risk factors and increase vaccine uptake among those at increased risk of exposure could help to reduce the incidence of both locally acquired and travel-related sporadic infections and outbreaks.

Longitudinal screening adherence in the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program from 2006 to 2022.

OBJECTIVE: Australia's National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) offers two-yearly screening to 50-74-year-olds for the prevention and early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC). Internationally, detailed reporting of participation across multiple screening rounds - also known as longitudinal adherence - is becoming more common, but remains limited in Australia. We described the longitudinal screening adherence of individuals by age and sex invited to the NBCSP at least once, and quantified longitudinal adherence among individuals who received four NBCSP invitations. METHODS: We obtained aggregate national data for individuals who received at least one NBCSP invitation between 1 August 2006 and 31 March 2022. We described screening adherence patterns including longitudinal adherence among individuals who received four invitations, and evaluated prior longitudinal adherence and adherence at most recent invitation as predictors of future participation. RESULTS: Over the study period, 8.5 million individuals were invited to screen in the NBCSP; 51.9% of these individuals screened at least once. Of the >2.5 million individuals who received four invitations, 23.3% consistently screened, 38.3% never screened, and 38.3% inconsistently screened. The longitudinal adherence at the fourth invitation round for individuals who previously returned none, one, two, or three of their previous three invitations was 9.5%, 37.4%, 70.1% and 88.8%, respectively. Both longitudinal adherence and adherence at the most recent invitation were significant predictors of future participation. CONCLUSION: Our study is the first detailed report of longitudinal adherence to the NBCSP in >2 screening rounds. These insights into long-term behaviours can inform planning for interventions to improve screening participation.

Opportunities for Enhanced Public Health Surveillance via Molecular Detection and Sequencing of Diverse Respiratory Viruses From Self-collected SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Test Swabs.

We sequenced and genotyped severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), influenza, adenovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus, among other pathogens, from residual anterior nasal swabs self-collected for rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing at the US Naval Academy. This is a key proof-of-concept for an acute respiratory infection surveillance approach, which could leverage prevalent SARS-CoV-2 antigen self-testing.

Administratively reported fetal alcohol spectrum disorders in commercially- and Medicaid-insured samples of children in the United States, 2015 - 2021.

BACKGROUND: Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs) are lifelong conditions that can occur in a person with prenatal alcohol exposure. Although studies using intensive, in-person assessments of children in selected communities have found higher estimates of children with FASDs than studies of healthcare claims data, claims-based studies provide more current information about individuals with recognized FASDs from diverse populations. We estimated the proportion of children with administratively reported FASDs in two large healthcare claims databases. METHODS: We analyzed Merative™ MarketScan® commercial and Medicaid claims databases, that include nationwide data from employer-sponsored health plans and from Medicaid programs in 8-10 states, respectively. For each database, we estimated the proportion of children aged 0-17 years with administratively reported FASDs, identified by one inpatient or two outpatient codes for prenatal alcohol exposure or fetal alcohol syndrome during the entire seven-year period from 2015 to 2021 and during each year. RESULTS: During 2015-2021, 1.2 per 10,000 commercially-insured and 6.1 per 10,000 Medicaid-insured children had an administratively reported FASD; estimates varied by sex, geography, and other available demographics. Among commercially-insured children, 0.5 per 10,000 in 2015 and 0.6 per 10,000 children in 2021 had an administratively reported FASD; among Medicaid-insured, 1.2 per 10,000 in 2015 and 2.1 per 10,000 children in 2021 had an administratively reported FASD. CONCLUSIONS: Although an underestimate of the true population of children with FASDs, patterns in administratively reported FASDs by demographics were consistent with previous studies. Healthcare claims studies can provide timely, ongoing information about children with recognized FASDs to complement in-persons studies.

Validation of an acute respiratory infection phenotyping algorithm to support robust computerised medical record-based respiratory sentinel surveillance, England, 2023.

IntroductionRespiratory sentinel surveillance systems leveraging computerised medical records (CMR) use phenotyping algorithms to identify cases of interest, such as acute respiratory infection (ARI). The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) is the English primary care-based sentinel surveillance network.AimThis study describes and validates the RSC's new ARI phenotyping algorithm.MethodsWe developed the phenotyping algorithm using a framework aligned with international interoperability standards. We validated our algorithm by comparing ARI events identified during the 2022/23 influenza season in England through use of both old and new algorithms. We compared clinical codes commonly used for recording ARI.ResultsThe new algorithm identified an additional 860,039 cases and excluded 52,258, resulting in a net increase of 807,781 cases (33.84%) of ARI compared to the old algorithm, with totals of 3,194,224 cases versus 2,386,443 cases. Of the 860,039 newly identified cases, the majority (63.7%) were due to identification of symptom codes suggestive of an ARI diagnosis not detected by the old algorithm. The 52,258 cases incorrectly identified by the old algorithm were due to inadvertent identification of chronic, recurrent, non-infectious and other non-ARI disease.ConclusionWe developed a new ARI phenotyping algorithm that more accurately identifies cases of ARI from the CMR. This will benefit public health by providing more accurate surveillance reports to public health authorities. This new algorithm can serve as a blueprint for other CMR-based surveillance systems wishing to develop similar phenotyping algorithms.

Perfil epidemiológico da hanseníase em Bacabal - MA, Brasil, 2008-2017 / Epidemiological profile of leprosy in Bacabal -Ma, Brazil, 2008-2017 / Perfil epidemiológico de la lepra en Bacabal -Ma, Brasil, 2008-2017

Introdução:A hanseníase é uma enfermidade infectocontagiosa que pode gerar desde a incapacidade as sequelas físicas quando não tratada precocemente. Objetivo:Descrever o perfil epidemiológico da Hanseníase em Bacabal no estado do Maranhão. Metodologia:Trata-se de um estudo transversal, retrospectiva com abordagem quantitativa, sobre casos de hanseníase registrados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação no período de 2008 a 2017 sendo analisados por estatística descritiva. Resultados:Foram diagnosticados 1.309 casos, na faixa etária de 20 a 34 anos (25,7%), sexo masculino (60,2%), raça/pretos (39,8%), com ensino fundamental (63,5%), ocupação de agropecuários (32,3%), atenção básica notificou a maioria dos casos (49,9%) e residiam na zona urbana (78,7%). Verificou-se que a classificação operacional predominante foi em casos Multibacilar (76%), na forma clínica dimorfa (60,9%), múltiplas lesões de 2 a 5 (33%), sem nervos afetados (60,6%) e os pacientes não tiveram nenhuma incapacidade física (45,5%). Apenas 43% dos casos realizaram a baciloscopia e a poliquimioterapia Multibacilar com 12 doses predominou com 75,8% nos casos diagnosticados. A maioria dos casos eram classificados como novos (77,8%), foram detectados por demanda espontânea (38,5%) e mais da metade foram curados (80,3%). Conclusões:A hanseníase é uma doença endêmica na região se configurando um problema saúde pública devido a elevada magnitude dos casos. Ressalta-se a importância da realização de atividades educativas com enfoque na prevenção através da busca ativa para o diagnóstico precoce; no intuito de rastrear casos e contatos na comunidade a fim de reduzir as sequelas físicas sendo um fator determinante para o enfrentamento da doença (AU).

Introduction:Leprosy is an infectious disease that can cause disability and physical sequelae when not treated early.Objective:To describe the epidemiological profile of leprosy in Bacabal, state of Maranhão. Methodology:This was a cross-sectional, retrospective, quantitative study on leprosy cases reported to the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 2008 to 2017. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results:A total of 1,309 cases were diagnosed, in the age group of 20 to 34 years (25.7%), male (60.2%), black race (39.8%), with elementary education (63.5%), and working in agriculture (32.3%). Primary care reported most cases (49.9%), and the majority of cases were from urban areas (78.7%). The predominant operational classification was multibacillary cases (76%), in the dimorphic clinical form (60.9%), from 2 to 5 multiple lesions (33%), without affected nerves (60.6%), and no physical disability (45.5%). Only 43% of cases underwent bacilloscopy, and multibacillary polychemotherapy with 12 doses was the most common treatment, accounting for 75.8% of diagnosed cases. Most cases were classified as new (77.8%) and were detected by spontaneous demand (38.5%), and more than Half were cured (80.3%).Conclusions: Leprosy is a disease endemic to the region and represents a public health challenge due to the high magnitude of cases. The importance of educational activities focusing on prevention through an active search for early diagnosis is highlighted to track cases and contacts in the community toreduce physical sequelae, which are crucial in combating the disease (AU).

Introducción: La lepra es una enfermedad infectocontagiosa que puede generar desde la discapacidad a consecuencias físicas si no se trata precozmente. Objetivo:Describir el perfil epidemiológico de la Lepra en Bacabal, estado de Maranhão. Metodología:Se trata de un estudio transversal, retrospectiva con abordaje cuantitativo, sobre casos de lepra registrados en el Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación Obligatoria en el período de 2008 a 2017 analizados por estadística descriptiva. Resultados:Se diagnosticaron 1.309 casos, con edad entre 20 a 34 años (el 25,7%), varones (el 60,2%), raza/negros (el 39,8%), con enseñanza básica (el 63,5%), ocupación de agropecuarios (el 32,3%), la atención primaria reportó la mayor parte de los casos (el 49,9%) y vivían en zonas urbanas (el 78,7%). Se verificó que la clasificaciónoperacional predominante fue en casos Multibacilar (el 76%), en la forma clínica dimorfa (el 60,9%), múltiples lesiones de 2 a 5 (el 33%), sin niervos afectados (el 60,6%) y los pacientes no tuvieron ninguna incapacidad física (el 45,5%). Solo el 43% de los casos se realizaron la baciloscopia y la poliquimioterapia Multibacilar con 12 dosis predominó con el 75,8% en los casos diagnosticados. La mayoría de los casos eran clasificados como nuevos (el 77,8%), se detectó por demanda espontánea (el 38,5%) y másde la mitad se curaron (el 80,3%). Conclusiones: La lepra es una enfermedad endémica en la región se configurando un problema salud pública debido a la elevada magnitud de los casos. Se subraya la importancia de la realización de actividades educativas con hincapié en la prevención por intermedio de la búsqueda activa para el diagnóstico temprano; en el intuito de rastrear casos y contactos en la comunidad con la finalidad de reducir las discapacidades físicas que son un factor determinante para afrontar enfrentar la enfermedad (AU).

[Continuous SARS-CoV-2 monitoring in day care centers: A qualitative interview study on the experiences of childcare workers and parents with different self-sampling methods in the home environment]. / Kontinuierliche Überwachung von SARS-CoV-2 Infektionen in Kindertagesstätten: eine qualitative Interviewstudie über die Erfahrungen von Betreuer*innen und Eltern mit verschiedenen Testverfahren im häuslichen Umfeld.

BACKGROUND: Since the beginning of the corona pandemic in Germany in January 2020, day care centres (DCC) have faced the challenge of reliably detecting cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection as early and reliably as possible in order to avoid major outbreaks and closures. Conducting regular virological screening tests for asymptomatic DCC children and childcare workers requires a high level of acceptance among participants and should be as easy as possible to implement. The present study aimed to evaluate childcare workers' and parents' attitudes and experiences regarding the acceptance and feasibility of various screening methods. This assessment was conducted using additional qualitative interviews designed for home-based screening in the context of a screening study in DCCs. METHOD: From May to July 2021, childcare workers and parents of children in nine DCCs in Wuerzburg independently carried out screening tests for SARS-CoV-2 at home twice a week as part of the "Würzburg Child Care Study in the COVID-19 Pandemic 2.0". The participants were offered two self-sampling methods (mouth-rinsing fluid for pooled PCR tests and/or nasal rapid antigen self-tests). Before and after the 12-week test phase, telephone interviews were conducted with a selected sample of childcare workers and parents in order to ascertain initial attitudes and further experiences with the two self-sampling methods and their implementation. The interviews were fully transcribed for analysis and subjected to a qualitative content analysis according to Kuckartz. RESULTS: Of the 1,026 eligible participants, 591 individuals, including 139 childcare workers and the parents of 452 children, agreed to take part in the screening tests. A total of 49 interviews were conducted with a specifically selected sample (20 before the start of the test, 29 after the end of the test). In the qualitative content analysis, three overarching topics emerged: 'aspects of the test performance', 'aspects of the perception of safety' and 'aspects of the testing in children'. Regardless of the fact that the various test methods and test features were perceived very differently, conducting the tests at home was found to be feasible. DISCUSSION: The differentiated insights into the participants' perspectives provide valuable information about factors that influence the acceptance of self-testing. These should be taken into account before such a measure is introduced in DCCs if necessary. CONCLUSION: The assessment of test procedures is strongly influenced by individual preferences. Test concepts should be implemented with as little time and organisational effort as possible in order to promote willingness to participate. Clear study information and quick feedback on test results can enhance the sense of security among parents and childcare workers.

A GIS software-based method to identify public health data belonging to address-defined communities.

OBJECTIVE: This communication presents the results of defining a tribal health jurisdiction by a combination of tribal affiliation and case address. METHODS: Through a county-tribal partnership, GIS software and custom code were used to extract tribal data from county data by identifying reservation addresses in county extracts of COVID-19 case records from December 30, 2019, to December 31, 2022 (n = 374,653) and COVID-19 vaccination records from December 1, 2020, to April 18, 2023 (n = 2,355,058). RESULTS: The tool identified 1.91 times as many case records and 3.76 times as many vaccination records as filtering by tribal affiliation alone. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This method of identifying communities by patient address, in combination with tribal affiliation and enrollment, can help tribal health jurisdictions attain equitable access to public health data, when done in partnership with a data sharing agreement. This methodology has potential applications for other populations underrepresented in public health and clinical research.

Linking Maternal and Child Health Data to Enhance Public Health Surveillance and Implement Sustainable Interventions.

Our initiative aims to enhance the public health informatics infrastructure for surveillance of maternal and child health (MCH) using data captured from electronic health records (EHRs), public health information systems, and administrative health data. Our work includes development, validation, and application of linkage algorithms across records for mothers and children; integration of data across myriad sources; design of routine surveillance reports; and design of longitudinal studies to examine determinants and outcomes in MCH populations. Our work is conducted in partnership with governmental public health agencies, health care providers, academic institutions, and community-based organizations. Future work will build on the enhanced informatics infrastructure to draw from additional public health data sources and/or expand surveillance efforts to include prioritized MCH outcomes. We will further translate knowledge gained from surveillance into action, working with our partners to improve and sustain better MCH equitably in our population.

Surveillance of Disease Outbreaks Using Unsupervised Uni-Multivariate Anomaly Detection of Time-Series Symptoms.

Effectively identifying deviations in real-world medical time-series data is a critical endeavor, essential for early surveillance of disease outbreaks. This paper demonstrates the integration of time-series anomaly detection techniques to develop surveillance systems for disease outbreaks. Utilizing data from Sweden's telephone counseling service (1177), we first illustrate the trends in physical and mental symptoms recorded as contact reasons, offering valuable insights for outbreak detection. Subsequently, an advanced anomaly detection technique is applied incrementally to these time-series symptoms as univariate and multivariate approaches to assess the effectiveness of a machine learning-based method on early detection of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Piloting wastewater-based surveillance of norovirus in England.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) gained widespread use as a tool for supporting clinical disease surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic. There is now significant interest in the continued development of WBE for other pathogens of clinical significance. In this study, approximately 3,200 samples of wastewater from across England, previously collected for quantification of SARS-CoV-2, were re-analysed for the quantification of norovirus genogroup I (GI) and II (GII). Overall, GI and GII were detected in 93% and 98% of samples respectively, and at least one of the genogroups was detected in 99% of samples. GI was found at significantly lower concentrations than GII, but the proportion of each genogroup varied over time, with GI becoming more prevalent than GII in some areas towards the end of the study period (May 2021 - March 2022). Using relative strength indices (RSI), it was possible to study the trends of each genogroup, and total norovirus over time. Increases in norovirus levels appeared to coincide with the removal of COVID-19 related lockdown restrictions within England. Local Moran's I analyses indicated several localised outbreaks of both GI and GII across England, notably the possible GI outbreak in the north of England in early 2022. Comparisons of national average norovirus concentrations in wastewater against concomitant norovirus reported case numbers showed a significant linear relationship. This highlights the potential for wastewater-based monitoring of norovirus as a valuable approach to support surveillance of norovirus in communities.

Clinical effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 on other nationally notifiable infectious diseases in South Korea.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: This study aimed to assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic on nationally notifiable infectious diseases (NNIDs) in South Korea. METHODS: Long-term data on seven NNIDs from 2018 to 2021 were analyzed to identify trends and change points using a change point detection technique. The timings of the NPI implementations were compared to the identified change points to determine their association. RESULTS: Varicella, mumps, and scarlet fever showed a significant decrease in incidence following the implementation of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic. These diseases, which are primarily transmitted through respiratory droplets, demonstrated a clear response to NPIs. However, carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) showed an increasing trend unrelated to the timing of NPI implementation, suggesting the complex nature of controlling healthcare-associated infections. Hepatitis A, hepatitis C, and scrub typhus did not show significant changes associated with NPIs, likely due to their non-respiratory route of transmission. CONCLUSION: NPIs effectively controlled NNIDs, particularly those transmitted through respiratory infections. However, the impact varied depending on the disease. Understanding the effectiveness and limitations of NPIs is crucial for developing comprehensive public health strategies during infectious disease outbreaks.

Assessing real world vaccine effectiveness: A review of Scotland's approach to monitoring human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine impact on HPV infection and cervical disease.

High-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections can progress to cervical cancer which is the fourth most common cancer in women globally. In Scotland, the incidence of cervical cancer has a strong socioeconomic deprivation gradient disproportionately affecting women from more deprived areas. An HPV vaccination programme was initiated in Scotland in 2008 targeting girls aged 12-13 years with a catch-up campaign running for the first three years for girls aged up to 18 years. The programme has evolved over the last 16 years with changes in the type of vaccine, dosing schedules and the extension of the programme to boys and gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men. Vaccine uptake in Scotland has historically been high but has gradually decreased over time and disparities exist in women from more deprived areas of Scotland. The ability to link national immunisation and screening databases in Scotland has allowed direct monitoring of the impact of the HPV vaccine on virological and histological outcomes. Analyses of this linked data have demonstrated real-world evidence of high vaccine effectiveness against HPV infection, cervical disease, and cervical cancer with evidence of herd immunity in unvaccinated women. Continued monitoring is crucial to assess the duration of protection, the impact of vaccine and dosing schedules changes and the emergence of potential type replacement. With the World Health Organisation's aim to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem by the next century addressing the inequalities in cervical cancer incidence will be crucial. This will require targeted interventions for women most at risk of cervical cancer to ensure elimination is achieved timely for all women in Scotland.

Public Health Surveillance of Pediatric Polio in Pakistan: A Cohort Study.

Background and objective Polio continues to be endemic in Pakistan despite substantial international efforts to combat it, which presents a serious public health concern. Strategies for eradicating polio depend on understanding the dynamics of pediatric polio transmission and the efficacy of surveillance. This research study aimed to critically evaluate the public health surveillance system for pediatric polio in Pakistan and propose recommendations for improvement. Methodology This study was conducted from June 2020 to July 2023 in three well-known hospitals in different areas of Pakistan and involved 26 patients. Reviews of medical records, interviews, and surveillance report analysis were all part of the data collection process. Descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and logistic regression analysis were performed using SPSS Statistics version 27.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY) with the statistical significance set at p<0.05. Results The highest incidence of polio was observed in children aged 13-24 months (nine patients, 34.62%), with males accounting for 14 cases (53.85%) and urban residents 16 cases (61.54%). Vaccination status significantly influences disease incidence (p<0.001), with two patients (7.69%) unvaccinated, 10 patients (38.46%) partially vaccinated, and 14 patients (53.85%) fully vaccinated. Paralysis was the predominant symptom in 16 patients (61.54%). Recovery outcomes varied, with eight patients (31%) fully recovering, 12 patients (46%) showing partial improvement, and six patients (23%) experiencing chronic motor impairments. Effective surveillance depends on timely reporting [odds ratio (OR): 2.15, p<0.001] and healthcare worker training (OR: 1.67, p<0.001), highlighting crucial aspects of polio management strategies. Conclusions Based on our findings, vaccination status significantly impacts polio occurrence, with a notable proportion found in partially vaccinated or unvaccinated children. Paralysis remains the primary symptom, with varied recovery outcomes, including chronic motor impairments in some cases. This study underscores Pakistan's ongoing challenges with pediatric polio, highlighting the crucial need for improved vaccination, surveillance, and rehabilitation efforts.