Coastal evolution and future projections in Conde County, Brazil: A multi-decadal assessment via remote sensing and sea-level rise scenarios.

Global sea levels, having risen by approximately 20 cm since the mid-19th century, necessitate a critical examination of their impacts on shoreline dynamics. This research evaluates the historical (1985-2022) and future shoreline changes in Conde County, Paraíba State, Brazil, an area of significant touristic interest. Employing Landsat satellite imagery, the study utilized the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and a Kalman filter algorithm for cloud removal, while also assessing land use and land cover changes using data from the MapBiomas Project for 2000, 2010, and 2020. These analyses informed projections of potential inundation under various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios: 1, 2, 5, and 10 m. Key findings revealed a negative average coastline change rate of -0.27 m/year from 1985 to 2022, indicative of erosive trends likely accelerated by human activities. Long-term projections for 2032 and 2042 anticipate continued erosion in areas identified as highly vulnerable. The SLR scenario analysis underscores the urgent need for adaptive climate measures; while a 1- or 2-meter SLR presents limited immediate effects, a 5-meter rise could lead to significant inundation across key sectors, including urban and agricultural landscapes. The projected severity of a 10-meter SLR necessitates immediate, comprehensive interventions to safeguard both natural and human systems.

The expected impacts of sea level on the Mexican Atlantic coast.

The Mexican Atlantic coast is vulnerable to sea level rise due to its low, sandy shorelines with extensive adjacent wetlands. The increasing trends at the regional level are similar to global trends (~3 ± 0.04 mm/year): between 1.8 mm/year in Alvarado, Veracruz, to 3.6 mm/year in Isla Mujeres, Quintana Roo. A synthetic model was applied to Mexican Atlantic coast under two sea level rise scenarios for the year 2100. Our objectives were: 1) to identify potentially floodable zones in the face of a sea level rise of one and two meters on the Mexican Atlantic coast with a synthetic model using SRTM and LiDAR topographic data; 2) to determine vegetation and land use affected in the potentially floodable zones; and 3) quantify the vulnerable human population. With topographic data we identified low areas (one and two meters) to assess potentially floodable zones; these were intersected with data layers of vegetation, land use, and human population. Deltaic zones, coastal lagoons and low-lying areas of the Yucatan Peninsula were regions with the largest potentially floodable surface. In the one-meter sea rise scenario, 581,674 ha were identified as potentially floodable, and 896,151 in the two-meter scenario. The most vulnerable vegetation and land use types were wetlands, such as cattail marshes (tulares; ~29 %) and mangroves (~27 %), as well as cultivated grasslands (~6 %). The indirectly affected coastal population could be approximately 5.5 million in these scenarios (~33 %), and the directly affected population could range between 124,000 and 440,000 (~0.72 and 2.55 %, respectively). These results indicate that there will be strong effects in economic, social, and environmental impacts on the Atlantic coast of Mexico in the event of a one- and two-meters sea level rise. This type of work will enable proposal conservation and adaptation strategies for human populations and coastal cities.

Beach morphodynamics modulate the effects of multidirectional habitat loss on population density and size structure of the Atlantic ghost crab Ocypode quadrata.

Sandy beaches are land-sea transitional habitats experiencing 'multidirectional' habitat loss due to coastal developments (e.g. armoring and/or conversion of natural vegetation into manmade structures) and beach erosion. This 'coastal squeeze' is a chronic and progressive process; however, its impacts on beach biodiversity across morphodynamic gradients are still to be unveiled. We hypothesized that the effects of multidirectional habitat loss would be more severe on dissipative than on reflective beaches, due to the higher elevation, amount of built up sediment, and width of the backshore compartment of the latter. We, thus, examined the effects of coastal developments and erosion on density and size structure of the Atlantic ghost crab, Ocypode quadrata, on beaches with different morphodynamics. Given that the living area of ghost crabs spans all cross-shore compartments and the whole dissipative-to-reflective morphodynamic gradient, they are appropriate organisms to access the synergic effects of coastal developments and beach erosion under different morphodynamic regimes. On dissipative beaches, density and mean crab size increased with moderate erosion, attributed to the effects of space loss, which might increase territorial competition, favoring the remaining larger individuals. However, mean size and density decreased with high erosion given the more intense reduction in the abundance of large-sized crabs living in up-shore habitats. Mean crab size also decreased in the presence of coastal development while crab density did not vary with loss of backshore habitats occupied by larger individuals. On reflective beaches, both density and crab size decreased with coastal development; the crab size decrease recorded under moderate erosion was more evident in the presence of coastal development. Under high erosion, mean crab sizes declined, reflecting those under low erosion conditions. Overall, populations on reflective beaches appeared more resilient to extreme erosion. Notwithstanding, coastal developments affected population structure across all beach types, and especially in areas subjected to high erosion, exhibiting a synergic effect. We predict that, in combination, these stressors may lead to functionally extinct populations where conditions necessary for individuals to reach sexual maturity (i.e. occurrence of only small-sized and immature individuals) are not met. Thus, the connectivity between water, beach compartments and dunes/coastal plain, on both local and regional scales, may be essential to maintain viable and connected populations of ghost crabs. Further, our results strongly suggest that both size and density (complemented with crab abundance) must be considered equally important and in combination in future efforts to assess anthropogenic stressors on ghost crab populations and when guiding conservation strategies and policies to prevent their local and regional extinctions.

Confirmation of significant sea turtle nesting activity on a remote island chain in the Gulf of Mexico.

Globally, six of the seven sea turtle species are threatened or endangered and as such, monitoring reproductive activity for these species is necessary for effective population recovery. Remote beaches provide a challenge to conducting these surveys, which often results in data gaps that can hamper management planning. Throughout the summer of 2022, aerial surveys were conducted over the Chandeleur Islands in the Gulf of Mexico. Turtle crawls were photographed for subsequent review by 10 expert observers. Whenever possible, ground surveys were conducted, and samples of unhatched eggs or dead hatchlings were collected. A summary of historic reports of sea turtle nesting activity at this site was also compiled. On 11 days between May 4, 2022, and July 30, 2022, photographs of 55 potential sea turtle crawls were taken. Observers identified 54 of those as being made by a sea turtle. There was high-to-moderate certainty that 16 of those crawls were nests, that 14 were made by loggerheads, and that two were made by Kemp's ridleys. Observers were least certain of species identification when surveys were conducted during rainy weather. Genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA were conducted on samples from five nests and those analyses confirmed that three nests were laid by Kemp's ridleys and two were laid by loggerheads. Historic records from the Chandeleur Islands substantiate claims that the Chandeleurs have supported sea turtle nesting activity for decades; however, the consistency of this activity remains unknown. Our aerial surveys, particularly when coupled with imaging, were a useful tool for documenting nesting activity on these remote islands. Future monitoring programs at this site could benefit from a standardized aerial survey program with a seaplane so trends in nesting activity could be determined particularly as the beach undergoes restoration.

Long-term water quality analysis reveals correlation between bacterial pollution and sea level rise in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Long-term assessments are needed to identify water quality trends and their socio-environmental drivers for coastal management and watershed restoration. This study provides the first long-term assessment of fecal bacterial pollution in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico using enterococci data spanning the Texas coast from 2009 to 2020. The data were representative of 66 beaches, 169 stations, and over 75,000 samples. Findings demonstrate that 22 beaches are 'hotspots' of pollution and experienced enterococci levels that frequently exceeded the USEPA beach action value. Further, enterococci were correlated with time, population size, and sea level. Weak correlations detected in some counties highlight the multifactorial nature of water quality; additional factors are likely influencing enterococci levels. The correlation with sea level is concerning, as counties vulnerable to sea level rise frequently reported enterococci concentrations exceeding the beach action value. In consideration of sea level rise predictions, targeted studies are needed to pinpoint drivers of fecal pollution.

Impacts of climate change on the tourism sector of a Small Island Developing State: A case study for the Bahamas.

This study examines the direct and indirect impacts of climate change to the tourism sector on the islands of New Providence and adjacent Paradise Island in the Bahamas. The assessment was carried out by conducting a geospatial analysis of tourism establishments at risk using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). We combined the geospatial analysis with publicly available databases to assess the integrated climate-related impacts pertaining to a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) economy. Our study estimated that many tourism properties currently lie in a storm surge zone and the extent of properties at risk increases with a future scenario of a 1 m rise in sea level. While sea level rise (SLR) by itself only threatens a small number of properties, when combined with weak (Category 1), moderate (Category 3) and strong (Category 5) storms the resulting coastal flooding impacts 34%, 69%, and 83% of the tourism infrastructure (hotels and resorts), respectively. In addition to flooding, properties are also susceptible to coastal erosion with 28% of the total hotels and resorts on the two islands being situated within 0-50 m and 60% of the tourism infrastructure within 0-100 m of the coastline. Considering the economic importance of the sector, the potential impacts on the tourism infrastructure will cause significant losses in revenue and employment for the two islands. Furthermore, the majority of the tourism on these islands is beach-based and visitor expenditures will decline due to their vulnerability. These losses will have far-reaching social-economic consequences for the Bahamas. Our findings reveal a need for integrated coastal zone management that incorporates tourism management strategies with adaptation measures to deal with climate change.

Coastal Stakeholders' Perceptions of Sea Level Rise Adaptation Planning in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

Planning for sea level rise (SLR) is a complex process that involves scientific uncertainty and local and regional political tradeoffs. As part of a 6-year transdisciplinary research project in the northern Gulf of Mexico, we conducted focus groups with coastal stakeholders (natural resource managers, community planners, and environmental communicators) to gain a better understanding of their planning and adaptation activities for SLR. This paper reports on participants' perceptions about adaptation and their current adaptation activities and strategies. While stakeholders were concerned about SLR and thought adaptation had challenges, they still shared optimism and a commitment to planning. The findings identify different types of SLR adaptation initiatives in which participants were involved as well as types of perceived barriers to adaptation planning, and major recommended strategies to address them. The paper concludes with a discussion of findings, connections to related SLR adaptation literature, practical implications for coastal resiliency, and directions for future research.

The ecosystem service of property protection and exposure to environmental stressors in the Gulf of Mexico.

Environmental stressors such as sea-level rise, erosion, and increased storm frequency and intensity are exposing coastal properties to greater amounts of damage. Coastal habitats like beaches, dunes, seagrasses, and wetlands can help reduce exposure and property damage. Using InVEST's Coastal Vulnerability Model, an exposure index value was calculated for every 250 m2 segment along the coastline in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties in Florida, USA. Nineteen sea level-by-habitat management scenarios were evaluated for a suite of shoreline segments across multiple exposures that can be used to inform local decision making as part of larger strategies for coastal management. Overall, a rise in sea level and degradation of coastal habitats could decrease the number of lower exposed shoreline segments and increase the number of higher exposed shoreline segments. These results were used to identify changes in the amount of potential residential property damage among different scenarios. Under high sea levels, additional protection to coastal habitats could reduce the amount of residential property damage resulting from one tropical cyclone event by $50.4 million (2018 US dollars (USD)) (by the year 2050) and by $71.8 million (2018 USD) (by the year 2100) in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. This research demonstrates the effects that habitat type/abundance and sea-level rise could have on vulnerable coastlines. The results of the modeled scenarios can be incorporated into several recent community resiliency planning initiatives in the region to develop more robust management plans and preparations for a changing environment.

La dinámica oceanográfica frente al Humedal Nacional Térraba-Sierpe y su relación con la muerte del manglar / The oceanographic dynamic in front of Térraba-Sierpe National Wetland (HNTS) and its relation with the mangrove's death

Resumen Se estudió la dinámica de las mareas y el oleaje frente al Humedal Nacional Térraba-Sierpe (HNTS) y su relación con los procesos de erosión y la muerte del manglar en esta región. Se encuentra que un aumento relativo del nivel del mar, ya sea generado por el basculamiento de las costas, o por calentamiento global, es el responsable de crear una nueva plataforma para el oleaje y está modificando el perfil de la costa y cambiando el tipo de sedimento sobre el cual crece el manglar. Una mayor deposición de sedimentos sobre la región norte de este delta, mantiene el equilibrio de este sistema en esta zona, donde más bien hay una ganancia de sedimentos en la isla al frente de la desembocadura del Río Grande de Térraba. Un menor aporte de sedimentos del Rio Sierpe está generando una migración tierra adentro de este sistema estuarino frente a esta región, lo cual es un síntoma de un aumento relativo del nivel del mar. Los escenarios futuros sobre una mayor energía del oleaje, y de un continuo aumento del nivel del mar, no permitirán un equilibrio en la dinámica de los sedimentos, especialmente sobre la parte sur de este delta, por lo que continuará perdiendo la cobertura del manglar en este sistema estuarino.

Abstract The Térraba-Sierpe Reserve has the largest mangrove in Costa Rica but has suffered from changes in sea level. I used published data to analyze the area and found that sea level rise, generated by coast subsidence or global warming, created a new platform for waves and changed the beach profile and sediment type. Increased sediment deposition on the north maintains the balance of this system, with a sediment gain on the island in front of the Térraba river mouth. A lower sediment output from the Sierpe river is generating a landward delta migration, especially in the southern part, a symptom of local sea level rise. Future scenarios of greater wave energy and additional sea level rise will not allow a dynamic sediment balance, especially on the southern part of the delta, and will generate a loss mangrove cover. Rev. Biol. Trop. 63 (Suppl. 1): 29-46. Epub 2015 April 01.

Climate change and dead zones.

Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones.

Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios.

Measuring Capacity for Resilience among Coastal Counties of the US Northern Gulf of Mexico Region.

Many have voiced concern about the long-term survival of coastal communities in the face of increasingly intense storms and sea level rise. In this study we select indicators of key theoretical concepts from the social-ecological resilience literature, aggregate those indicators into a resilience-capacity index, and calculate an index score for each of the 52 coastal counties of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Building upon Cutter's Social Vulnerability Index work [1], we use Factor Analysis to combine 43 variables measuring demographics, social capital, economic resources, local government actions, and environmental conditions within the counties. Then, we map the counties' scores to show the spatial distribution of resilience capacities. The counties identified as having the highest resilience capacities include the suburban areas near New Orleans, Louisiana and Tampa, Florida, and the growing beach-tourist communities of Alabama and central Florida. Also, we examine whether those counties more active in oil and gas development and production, part of the region's "energy coast", have greater capacity for resilience than other counties in the region. Correlation analyses between the resilience-capacity index scores and two measures of oil and gas industry activity (total employment and number of business establishments within five industry categories) yielded no statistically significant associations. By aggregating a range of important contextual variables into a single index, the study demonstrates a useful approach for the more systematic examination and comparison of exposure, vulnerability and capacity for resilience among coastal communities.

Sea-land limits: a case study

The limits between sea and land were estimated at "Pulso" beach located in the Southeastern Brazilian shelf (φ = 23°33/17.4886"S; Λ = 045° 13'13.0504"W - WGS84), between the island of São Sebastião and the city of Ubatuba, SP, Brazil. The relative sea level of the year 1831 at "Pulso" beach, as per Brazilian law Number 9760 dated from 1946, was estimated and materialized. The retro-estimation allowed the demarcation of the Legal Sea-Land Limits at "Pulso" beach as per the terms of the law. The accuracy of the procedure for the transference of the long-term sea level from the research station of Ubatuba to "Pulso" beach was assessed by parallel work of geometrical leveling referred to the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) geodetic network. The motivation, the hypotheses (Brest, Cananeia and IPCC) and the methods here used are described, together with a short history of the Legal Sea-Land Limits. The results indicated that the legal Sea-Land Limits at "Pulso" beach are well within the beach area. They were determined as per law 9760, and there is the need to reactivate the national network of sea level gauge.

Os limites entre mar e terra foram estimados na praia chamada Pulso, localizada na costa sudeste do Brasil (φ = 23°33'17, 4886"S; Λ = 045°13'13, 0504"W) entre a Ilha de São Sebastião e a cidade de Ubatuba, no Estado de São Paulo, SP, Brasil. O nível relativo do mar do ano de 1831 na praia do Pulso, ou "Praia do Pulso" (PP), foi estimado e materializado, de acordo com a Lei brasileira Número 9760 de 1946. A acurácia do procedimento foi acompanhada por trabalho paralelo de nivelamento geométrico referido ao sistema nacional de geodésia do IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). A motivação, as hipóteses (Brest, Cananeia e IPCC) e os métodos utilizados são descritos, acompanhados por um breve histórico dos "Terrenos de Marinha". Os resultados indicaram que os limites em (PP) estão bem dentro da área da praia. Eles fora deterinados de acordo co a Lei No. 9760 e há a necessidade de reativar a rede nacional de medidores do nível do mar.