Environmental sympatry through time: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of two sympatric anuran species (Leptodactylidae) in South America / Simpatría ambiental a través del tiempo: distribución espacio-temporal y estado de conservación de dos especies de anuros simpátricos (Leptodactylidae) en América del Sur

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Insights into Population Status and Habitat Patches of Conservation Concern for the Endangered Indian Pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) in Nowshera District, Northwestern Pakistan.

The Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) stands out among the four surviving species of Asian pangolins, being the sole species present in Pakistan and listed as endangered owing to trafficking and illicit commerce. In the present study, we explored the population status of the Indian pangolin and the existing suitable habitats in Nowshera district, Pakistan. We employed the line transect method to confirm the species presence and subsequent population estimation. In a survey effort of 156 km2, a total of 56 signs of Indian pangolin were recorded within the research area. Amongst the 56 signs, 46 were burrows (living burrows (53.57%) and feeding burrows (28.57%)). Digging was observed nine (16.07%) times, along with one direct sighting (1.7%). Our results revealed a population estimate of only 29 pangolins in the Nowshera district, with a population density of 0.013 individuals/km2. Later, MaxEnt was applied to the species' presence points, along with climatic and topographical variables. The MaxEnt model accuracy was good (AUC = 0.811). Of the total area studied, 210 km2 (12.01%) were highly suitable and 238 km2 (13.61%) were moderately suitable habitat for the Indian pangolin. To safeguard the fragile population and habitat of the Indian pangolin, we highly suggest strengthening watch and ward and law enforcement in the study area. By adopting a comprehensive approach that addresses both the direct threats to Indian pangolins and the underlying factors driving their decline, we can effectively protect this endangered species and ensure the preservation of its essential habitats for robust conservation.

MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Hydrocera triflora since the Last Interglacial and under Future Climate Scenarios.

Hydrocera triflora is a perennial herb found in southeastern and southern Asia. In China, it is only found in Hainan Province. With global climate change, studying the impact of climate change on the distribution of H. triflora can provide a theoretical basis for the scientific protection of this species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution area of H. triflora in China under historical, current, and future periods based on 66 distribution points and 12 environmental variables. The results were as follows: (i) The main environmental variables affecting the distribution of H. triflora were precipitation in the coldest month and in the wettest quarter, with elevation also being a significant factor. (ii) Over the past three periods, the last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and mid-Holocene, the suitable area for H. triflora initially decreased and then increased. The suitable area reached the lowest value in the last glacial maximum period, at only 27.03 × 104 km2. (iii) The current potential distribution area is 67.81 × 104 km2, and the optimal area is mainly distributed in the Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces. (iv) Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of H. triflora is projected to increase by 11.27~90.83 × 104 km2. It is expected to reach a maximum value (158.64 × 104 km2) in 2081~2100 under the SSP-585 climate scenario, with the distribution centroid shifting to higher latitudes. The newly gained optimal habitats will provide potential areas for introduction and ex situ conservation of this species.

Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of the Plum Fruit Moth Grapholita funebrana Treitscheke Using Ensemble Models.

The plum fruit moth, Grapholita funebrana Treitschke, is one of the most significant borer pests, often causing huge economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest is still poorly understood. For this study, we simulated an ensemble species distribution model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of G. funebrana at a global scale. The results show that the suitable habitats for this moth, under current environmental conditions, are mainly distributed in Europe; East Asia, including China and Japan; Central Asia; and some parts of America. In future projections, the suitable habitats are predicted to generally expand northward, while the suitable area will remain unchanged overall. However, the area of highly suitable habitat will decrease to only 17.49% of that found under current conditions. None of the nine factors used were revealed to be predominant predictors in terms of contributing to the model, suggesting that the integrated effects of these variables shape G. funebrana's distribution. In this study, the distribution range that has been predicted, especially for the regions with a highly suitable habitat, poses a high risk of G. funebrana outbreaks, highlighting the urgency of pest management. Moreover, in the United States of America (USA) and Japan (for which G. funebrana distributions were not previously recorded), especially in areas highly suitable for this moth, monitoring and quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent the colonization and further dispersal of this pest, as seen with its close relative G. molesta, which has become a cosmopolitan pest species, migrating from its native region (East Asia) to other continents, including the Americas.

Predicting the Drivers of Bothrops Snakebite Incidence Across Brazil: A Spatial Analysis.

Snakebite envenoming poses a significant public health challenge on a global basis, affecting millions of people annually and leading to complications that may result in fatalities. Brazil stands as one of the countries most impacted by snakebite envenoming, with snakes of the Bothrops genus being responsible for most bites. The current study aimed to identify the determinants of Bothrops snakebite incidence across different regions of Brazil. An ecological study was conducted using municipality-aggregated data, with snakebite incidence as the dependent variable. The study period comprised the years 2015 to 2021. We constructed Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for Bothrops species, and information was collected on precipitation, runoff, maximum and minimum temperatures, native forest, historical forest loss, agriculture, and pasture in each Brazilian municipality. These data were employed to assess the association between snakebite incidence and biotic, climatic, and landscape factors. The data were analyzed using Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression. The SDMs demonstrated good performance. The average annual snakebite incidence during the study period ranged from zero to 428.89 per 100,000 inhabitants, depending on the municipality. Higher incidence rates were concentrated primarily in municipalities in the northern region of the country. In this study, we found that nationwide, areas with extensive native forests and those that have historically experienced significant loss of forest cover exhibited higher snakebite incidence rates. Additionally, areas with higher temperatures and precipitation levels, as well as greater climatic suitability for the species B. jararaca, showed significantly higher snakebite incidence rates in the South and Southeast of Brazil, respectively. These associations may be linked to increased snake abundance and active behavior, as well as to engagement in activities favoring human-snake contact in these areas. The findings of this study can contribute to the improvement of prevention and control strategies for this public health issue in Brazil.

Introduced Herbivores Threaten the Conservation Genetics of Two Critically Endangered Single-Island Endemics, Crambe sventenii and Pleudia herbanica.

Crambe sventenii Pett. ex Bramwell & Sunding and Pleudia herbanica (A.Santos & M.Fernández) M.Will, N.Schmalz & Class.-Bockh. are two single-island endemic species from Fuerteventura (Canary Islands), inhabiting the same areas and similar habitats. They are under the "Critically Endangered" category due to historical herbivore pressure, mainly goats, leading to habitat fragmentation and poor population recruitment. The main aim of our study was to provide insights into the conservation genetics and habitat suitability of these two species. For this purpose, we sampled all known populations on the island and developed two new sets of microsatellite markers. Moreover, to assist restoration plans, we performed species distribution models to determine the most suitable areas for reintroduction. While Crambe sventenii is highly fragmented, with low genetic diversity indices in some populations, Pleudia herbanica's genetic structure is quite homogeneous, grouped in three main regions, with signs of inbreeding and an overall low genetic diversity. Both species could present moderate to high levels of autogamy. Our findings can provide guidance to local governments regarding conservation actions to be implemented in the field, like the identification of propagule sources and new suitable areas for restoration.

Impacts of Distribution Data on Accurate Species Modeling: A Case Study of Litsea auriculata (Lauraceae).

Global warming has caused many species to become endangered or even extinct. Describing and predicting how species will respond to global warming is one of the hotspots of biodiversity research. Species distribution models predict the potential distribution of species based on species occurrence data. However, the impact of the accuracy of the distribution data on the prediction results is poorly studied. In this study, we used the endemic plant Litsea auriculata (Lauraceae) as a case study. By collecting and assembling six different datasets of this species, we used MaxEnt to perform species distribution modeling and then conducted comparative analyses. The results show that, based on our updated complete correct dataset (dataset 1), the suitable distribution of this species is mainly located in the Ta-pieh Mountain, southwestern Hubei and northern Zhejiang, and that mean diurnal temperature range (MDTR) and temperature annual range (TAR) play important roles in shaping the distribution of Litsea auriculata. Compared with the correct data, the wrong data leads to a larger and expanded range in the predicted distribution area, whereas the species modeling based on the correct but incomplete data predicts a small and contracted range. We found that only about 23.38% of Litsea auriculata is located within nature reserves, so there is a huge conservation gap. Our study emphasized the importance of correct and complete distribution data for accurate prediction of species distribution regions; both incomplete and incorrect data can give misleading prediction results. In addition, our study also revealed the distribution characteristics and conservation gap of Litsea auriculata, laying the foundation for the development of reasonable conservation strategies for this species.

Deep learning models map rapid plant species changes from citizen science and remote sensing data.

Anthropogenic habitat destruction and climate change are reshaping the geographic distribution of plants worldwide. However, we are still unable to map species shifts at high spatial, temporal, and taxonomic resolution. Here, we develop a deep learning model trained using remote sensing images from California paired with half a million citizen science observations that can map the distribution of over 2,000 plant species. Our model-Deepbiosphere-not only outperforms many common species distribution modeling approaches (AUC 0.95 vs. 0.88) but can map species at up to a few meters resolution and finely delineate plant communities with high accuracy, including the pristine and clear-cut forests of Redwood National Park. These fine-scale predictions can further be used to map the intensity of habitat fragmentation and sharp ecosystem transitions across human-altered landscapes. In addition, from frequent collections of remote sensing data, Deepbiosphere can detect the rapid effects of severe wildfire on plant community composition across a 2-y time period. These findings demonstrate that integrating public earth observations and citizen science with deep learning can pave the way toward automated systems for monitoring biodiversity change in real-time worldwide.

"Two zones and three centers" distribution and suitable areas shift of an evergreen oak in subtropical China under climate scenarios.

Understanding the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of species is a fundamental requirement for biodiversity conservation and resource management. Quercus oxyphylla, an evergreen oak endemic to China, plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological stability in subtropical regions and high economic value attributed to its dark and high-density heartwood, but the existing resources are close to endangered. Currently, limited knowledge exists regarding its distribution and potential influences of climate change on suitable areas. This study utilized 63 occurrence records and Biomod2 platform, to predict changes in suitable areas for Q. oxyphylla under future climate change. The results revealed that (1) Q. oxyphylla showed a pattern of three disjunctive geographical centers in the eastern subregion of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest region (IVA): Qinling-Daba Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains center. Currently, the highly suitable areas concentrated in two zones divided by the Yangtze River, that is, the northern subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forest zone (IVAii) and the mid-subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest zone (IVAi). (2) The temperature-related variables, such as annual temperature range (Bio7), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual mean temperature (Bio1), were identified as the key determinants of the distribution pattern. Because of its considerable climatic variations in temperature and water conditions, Q. oxyphylla's habitat displayed a wider climate niche and strong physiological tolerance to climate change. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of the species was expected to overall expand with significant regional differences. The suitable area in IVAi was expected to expand significantly northward while that in IVAii was expected to gradually shrink. To address the impact of climate change, it is necessary to develop conservation plans focused around the three distribution centers, implement localized and regional conservation policies, and conduct educational outreach among local people.

Potential impacts of climate change on cephalopods in a highly productive region (Northwest Pacific): Habitat suitability and management.

Cephalopods occupy a mid-trophic level in marine ecosystems and are vital both ecologically and as fishery resources. However, under the pressure of climate change and fishing, the sustainability of cephalopod resources requires reasonable management. This study aims to study climate change and fishing impacts on the common economic cephalopod species habitats using species distribution models. We take the northwest Pacific Ocean region as an example, which stands out as a significant region for cephalopod production around the world. Results found that the habitats of cephalopods are moving to higher latitudes or deeper waters (Bohai Sea, mid-bottom Yellow Sea, and the Okinawa Trough waters) under climate change. Additionally, these regions are currently under lower fishing pressure, which suggests that species migration might mitigate the effects of warming and fishing. This study provides the large-scale assessment of the distribution range of cephalopods affected by climate change coping with fishing pressure in the northwest Pacific Ocean. By identifying climate refuges and key fishing grounds, we underscore the importance of this information for managing cephalopod resources in the context of climate adaptation and sustainable fishing practices.

Estimating genus-specific effects of non-native honey bees and urbanization on wild bee communities: A case study in Maryland, United States.

Non-native species have the potential to detrimentally affect native species through resource competition, disease transmission, and other forms of antagonism. The western honey bee (Apis mellifera) is one such species that has been widely introduced beyond its native range for hundreds of years. There are strong concerns in the United States, and other countries, about the strain that high-density, managed honey bee populations could pose to already imperiled wild bee communities. While there is some experimental evidence of honey bees competing with wild bees for resources, few studies have connected landscape-scale honey bee apiary density with down-stream consequences for wild bee communities. Here, using a dataset from Maryland, US and joint species distribution models, we provide the largest scale, most phylogenetically resolved assessment of non-native honey bee density effects on wild bee abundance to date. As beekeeping in Maryland primarily consists of urban beekeeping, we also assessed the relative impact of developed land on wild bee communities. Six of the 33 wild bee genera we assessed showed a high probability (> 90 %) of a negative association with apiary density and/or developed land. These bees were primarily late-season, specialist genera (several long-horned genera represented) or small, ground nesting, season-long foragers (including several sweat bee genera). Conversely, developed land was associated with an increase in relative abundance for some genera including invasive Anthidium and other urban garden-associated genera. We discuss several avenues to ameliorate potentially detrimental effects of beekeeping and urbanization on the most imperiled wild bee groups. We additionally offer methodological insights based on sampling efficiency of different methods (hand netting, pan trapping, vane trapping), highlighting large variation in effect sizes across genera. The magnitude of sampling effect was very high, relative to the observed ecological effects, demonstrating the importance of integrated sampling, particularly for multi-species or community level assessments.

Redistribution of vocal snapping shrimps under climate change.

A variety of marine organisms can produce sounds that are important components of the marine soundscape and play a critical role in maintaining marine biodiversity. Climate change has greatly altered the geographical ranges of many marine species, including sound-producing organisms. However, the direction and the magnitude of the potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of sound-producing marine organisms in future remain largely unknown. To address this knowledge gap, we selected snapping shrimp, one of the most well-known marine sound-producing organisms, as a model species and explored their redistribution under climate change via species distribution models. We aimed to predict the redistribution of snapping shrimps under climate change and identify the influencing factors, which have important implications for marine conservation. Our models exhibited good discrimination abilities and identified maximum temperature as the most influential predictor of snapping shrimp distribution. Model predictions suggested that species richness is higher in tropical and temperate coastal waters and peaks in the Indo-Pacific region. The majority of snapping shrimp species are expected to respond to the changing climate by shifting their geographical ranges to deeper waters and higher latitudes. Our results showed that, in the future, high-latitude species were more likely to experience range expansion, whereas low-latitude species might experience range contraction. Moreover, the Central Indo-Pacific are predicted to suffer the biggest decline in species richness, whereas areas such as the coastal waters of southern Australia and northern China might serve as climate refuges for snapping shrimps in the future. In summary, this study highlights the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of sound-producing snapping shrimps, which may result in cascading effects on marine ecosystems.

Mapping threatened Thai bovids provides opportunities for improved conservation outcomes in Asia.

Wild bovids provide important ecosystem functions as seed dispersers and vegetation modifiers. Five wild bovids remain in Thailand: gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), wild water buffalo (Bubalus arnee), mainland serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) and Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus). Their populations and habitats have declined substantially and become fragmented by land-use change. We use ecological niche models to quantify how much potential suitable habitat for these species remains within protected areas in Asia and then specifically Thailand. We combined species occurrence data from several sources (e.g. mainly camera traps and direct observation) with environmental variables and species-specific and single, large accessible areas in ensemble models to generate suitability maps, using out-of-sample predictions to validate model performance against new independent data. Gaur, banteng and buffalo models showed reasonable model accuracy throughout the entire distribution (greater than or equal to 62%) and in Thailand (greater than or equal to 80%), whereas serow and goral models performed poorly for the entire distribution and in Thailand, though 5 km movement buffers markedly improved the performance for serow. Large suitable areas were identified in Thailand and India for gaur, Cambodia and Thailand for banteng and India for buffalo. Over 50% of suitable habitat is located outside protected areas, highlighting the need for habitat management and conflict mitigation outside protected areas.

Active remote sensing data and dispersal processes improve predictions for an invasive aquatic plant during a climatic extreme in Great Lakes coastal wetlands.

Invasive aquatic plants pose a significant threat to coastal wetlands. Predicting suitable habitat for invasive aquatic plants in uninvaded yet vulnerable wetlands remains a critical task to prevent further harm to these ecosystems. The integration of remote sensing and geospatial data into species distribution models (SDMs) can help predict where new invasions are likely to occur by generating spatial outputs of habitat suitability. The objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of utilizing active remote sensing datasets (synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) with multispectral imagery and other geospatial data in predicting the potential distribution of an invasive aquatic plant based on its biophysical habitat requirements and dispersal dynamics. We also considered a climatic extreme (lake water levels) during the study period to investigate how these predictions may change between years. We compiled a time series of 1628 field records on the occurrence of Hydrocharis morsus-ranae (European frogbit; EFB) with nine remote sensing and geospatial layers as predictors to train and assess the predictive capacity of random forest models to generate habitat suitability in Great Lakes coastal wetlands in northern Michigan, USA. We found that SAR and LiDAR data were useful as proxies for key biophysical characteristics of EFB habitat (emergent vegetation and water depth), and that a vegetation index calculated from spectral imagery was one of the most important predictors of EFB occurrence. Our SDM using all predictors yielded the highest mean overall accuracy of 88.3% and a true skill statistic of 75.7%. Two of the most important predictors of EFB occurrence were dispersal-related: 1) distance to the nearest known EFB population (m), and 2) distance to nearest public boat launch (m). The area of highly suitable habitat (pixels assigned ≥0.8 probability) was 74% larger during a climatically extreme high water-level year compared to an average year. Our findings demonstrate that active remote sensing can be integrated into SDM workflows as proxies for important drivers of invasive species expansion that are difficult to measure in other ways. Moreover, the importance of a proxy variable for endogenous dispersal (distance to nearest known population) in these SDMs indicates that EFB is currently spreading, and thereby less influenced by within-site dynamics such as interspecific competition. Lastly, we found that extreme climatic conditions can dramatically change this species' niche, and therefore we recommend that future studies include dynamic climate conditions in SDMs to more accurately forecast the spread during early invasion stages.

Potential negative impacts of climate change outweigh opportunities for the Colombian Pacific Ocean Shrimp Fishery.

Climate change brings a range of challenges and opportunities to shrimp fisheries globally. The case of the Colombian Pacific Ocean (CPO) is notable due the crucial role of shrimps in the economy, supporting livelihoods for numerous families. However, the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of shrimps loom large, making it urgent to scrutinize the prospective alterations that might unfurl across the CPO. Employing the Species Distribution Modeling approach under Global Circulation Model scenarios, we predicted the current and future potential distributions of five commercially important shrimps (Litopenaeus occidentalis, Xiphopenaeus riveti, Solenocera agassizii, Penaeus brevirostris, and Penaeus californiensis) based on an annual cycle, and considering the decades 2030 and 2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP 2.6, SSP 4.5, SSP 7.0, and SSP 8.5. The Bathymetric Projection Method was utilized to obtain spatiotemporal ocean bottom predictors, giving the models more realism for reliable habitat predictions. Six spatiotemporal attributes were computed to gauge the changes in these distributions: area, depth range, spatial aggregation, percentage suitability change, gain or loss of areas, and seasonality. L. occidentalis and X. riveti exhibited favorable shifts during the initial semester for both decades and all scenarios, but unfavorable changes during the latter half of the year, primarily influenced by projected modifications in bottom salinity and bottom temperature. Conversely, for S. agassizii, P. brevirostris, and P. californiensis, predominantly negative changes surfaced across all months, decades, and scenarios, primarily driven by precipitation. These changes pose both threats and opportunities to shrimp fisheries in the CPO. However, their effects are not uniform across space and time. Instead, they form a mosaic of complex interactions that merit careful consideration when seeking practical solutions. These findings hold potential utility for informed decision-making, climate change mitigation, and adaptive strategies within the context of shrimp fisheries management in the CPO.

Predicting habitat suitability for alien macroalgae in relation to thermal niche occupancy.

Invasive species are a major threat to global diversity and can interact synergistically or antagonistically with various components of climate change. Using species distribution models (SDMs) at different spatial scales and resolutions, we determined the main variables affecting the distribution of six invasive macroalgae present on European coasts. We also studied occupation of the thermal realized niche and predicted areas potentially at risk of invasion. The climatic variables related to warming had a greater influence on distribution at large scales, while non-climatic variables related to river influence and maritime transport at regional scale. Invaders often seemed to occupy colder areas than in their native area. The combination of SDMs with thermal niche of species is a useful way of clarifying the invasion process. This approach will help in the development of preventive strategies whereby the responsible authorities can implement early detection systems and respond swiftly to the appearance of biopollutants.

Climate-driven shifts in freshwater biodiversity will impact mitigation costs for hydropower.

Climate change is forecasted to drastically alter freshwater fish and mussel species distribution. Hydropower dam reservoirs, which modify downstream thermal regimes, may interact with climate change's impact on species distribution. This distribution shift may feedback, affecting hydropower operation costs through environmental compliance. We investigated how freshwater species distribution will shift due to climate change and hydropower reservoirs in the conterminous United States (CONUS), and how this will affect biodiversity mitigation costs for privately-owned hydropower plants. In general, using environmental niche modeling, we found that climate change increased the range of both freshwater fish and mussel species on average. For fish, this was mainly due to the expanded habitat for warm-water and cool-water fish species despite the diminish in habitat for cold-water species. Compared to climate change, thermal stratification of hydropower reservoirs had a small impact on the future range changes of these species in the tailwaters but showed an interaction with the effect of climate change on species range. Geographically, we projected an increase of species richness in the west and a decrease in the central and east of CONUS for fish, while projecting uniform increase for mussels. With this shift in species distribution, we estimated that the Northwest region will face the largest increase in mitigation cost, while the majority of plants in the Southeast will experience a decrease in cost.

Expanding the boundaries in the face of global warming: A lesson from genetic and ecological niche studies of Centaurium erythraea in Europe.

Climate change affects plant species, especially those with restricted ecology and distribution. Centaurium erythraea is a flowering plant species in the Gentianaceae family, native to Europe, with its centre of diversity in the Mediterranean and western Asia. Of the 11 infraspecific taxa distinct from C. erythraea, only two are common in Europe: C. erythraea subsp. erythraea (widespread nominal subspecies) and C. erythraea subsp. majus (mainly distributed in the western Mediterranean region). Freshly collected samples of 36 plants from 11 localities across Lower Silesia (Central Europe) were utilised for taxonomic and genetic analysis. The barcode sequences of chloroplast DNA region matK were used for molecular analysis. Data deposited in GenBank was also used. Five haplotypes were identified among the analysed specimens. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques were applied to predict the current and future (short- and long-term projections) potential distribution of C. erythraea subsp. majus and to identify the most influential climatic factors. Despite the typical Mediterranean distribution, the presence of C. erythraea subsp. majus outside its natural range in SW Poland has been confirmed by morphological and genetic studies. The mean monthly precipitation of the wettest quarter and the mean daily temperatures of the warmest quarter were identified as the key climatic factors. Short-term scenarios suggest that C. erythraea subsp. majus will maintain most of its current suitable habitats and potentially expand into the lowlands of Central Europe. However, long-term projections indicate a potential reduction in its currently suitable areas, especially in the southern parts of its range, with a possible expansion into north-western Europe. The results of these studies provide clear evidence of the impact of ongoing climate change on species range changes. These findings suggest that climate change may create new opportunities for Mediterranean species to spread to new regions, using C. erythraea subsp. majus as an example.

Global distribution, diversity, and ecological niche of Picozoa, a widespread and enigmatic marine protist lineage.

BACKGROUND: The backbone of the eukaryotic tree of life contains taxa only found in molecular surveys, of which we still have a limited understanding. Such is the case of Picozoa, an enigmatic lineage of heterotrophic picoeukaryotes within the supergroup Archaeplastida, which has emerged as a significant component of marine microbial planktonic communities. To enhance our understanding of the diversity, distribution, and ecology of Picozoa, we conduct a comprehensive assessment at different levels, from assemblages to taxa, employing phylogenetic analysis, species distribution modeling, and ecological niche characterization. RESULTS: Picozoa was among the ten most abundant eukaryotic groups, found almost exclusively in marine environments. The phylum was represented by 179 Picozoa's OTU (pOTUs) placed in five phylogenetic clades. Picozoa community structure had a clear latitudinal pattern, with polar assemblages tending to cluster separately from non-polar ones. Based on the abundance and occupancy pattern, the pOTUs were classified into four categories: Low-abundant, Widespread, Polar, and Non-polar. We calculated the ecological niche of each of these categories. Notably, pOTUs sharing similar ecological niches were not closely related species, indicating a phylogenetic overdispersion in Picozoa communities. This could be attributed to competitive exclusion and the strong influence of the seasonal amplitude of variations in environmental factors, such as temperature, shaping physiological and ecological traits. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this work advances our understanding of uncharted protists' evolutionary dynamics and ecological strategies. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the species-level ecology of marine heteroflagellates like Picozoa. The observed phylogenetic overdispersion challenges the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism in protist communities, suggesting that closely related species do not necessarily share similar ecological niches. Video Abstract.

Maritime traffic alters distribution of the harbour porpoise in the North Sea.

The North Sea is one of the most industrialised marine regions globally. We integrated cetacean-dedicated aerial surveys (2015-2022) with environmental covariates and ship positions from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) to investigate the disturbance radius and duration on harbour porpoise distribution. This study is based on 81,511 km of line-transect survey effort, during which 6511 harbour porpoise groups (8597 individuals) were sighted. Several proxies for ship disturbance were compared, identifying those best explaining the observed distribution. Better model performance was achieved by integrating maritime traffic, with frequent traffic representing the most significant disturbance to harbour porpoise distribution. Porpoises avoided areas frequented by numerous vessels up to distances of 9 km. The number of ships and average approach distance over time improved model performance, while reasons for the lower performance of predicted ship sound levels remain unclear. This study demonstrates the short-term effects of maritime traffic on harbour porpoise distribution.