Trends in transport injuries burden and risk factors among children under 14 years old in China: 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Transport injuries (TI) remains one of leading causes of death in children in China. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden and associated risk factors of TI among children aged 0-14 years in China, utilizing data from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We retrieved data of disease burden and risk factors of TI among children aged 0-14 year in China from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset. We estimated incidence rate, death rate, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate with a 95% uncertainty interval (95% UI), stratified by age, sex, and all type-road users. Trends in disease burden with annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were performed by Joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: The incidence rate (AAPC = 1.18%, P < 0.001) of TI among children aged 0-14 years showed an increasing trend, whereas mortality rate (AAPC = -3.87%, P < 0.001) and DALYs rate (AAPC = -3.83%, P < 0.001) decreased annually. Notably, boys experienced a higher increase in incidence (1.30%) compared to girls (1.06%), but a faster decrease in mortality and DALYs rate (-3.90% vs. -3.82%, -3.88% vs. -3.79%, respectively) (Pall < 0.001). Declines in death rates and DALYs rates were observed across all age groups (Pall < 0.001), while remained the highest among children aged 0-4 in 2019. Among different road-type users, cyclist road injuries were identified as the primary cause of TI (182.3 cases per 100,000) while pedestrians were the group with the highest mortality (2.9 cases per 100,000) and DALYs rate (243 cases per 100,000) in 2019. Besides, alcohol use was a significant risk factors for TI, while low temperature appeared to be a protective factor. CONCLUSION: Future efforts must prioritize raising awareness among children and their guardians to mitigate the disease burden of TI in children. It's critical to enhance preventive interventions for boys, children aged 0-4 and vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and cyclists in future.

Global burden, risk factor analysis, and prediction study of leukaemia from 1990 to 2030.

Background: Leukaemia is a devastating disease with an incidence that progressively increases with advancing age. The World Health Organization has designated 2021-30 as the decade of healthy ageing, highlighting the need to address age-related diseases. We estimated the disease burden of leukaemia and forecasted it by 2030. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database, we systematically analysed the geographical distribution of leukaemia and its subtypes. We used Joinpoint regression and Bayesian age-period-cohort models to evaluate incidence and mortality trends from 1990 to 2019 and projections through 2030. We analysed five leukaemia subtypes and the impact of age, gender, and social development. Decomposition analysis revealed the effects of disease burden on ageing and population growth. We used frontier analysis to illustrate the potential of each country to reduce its burden based on its development levels. Results: Globally, the absolute numbers of leukaemia incidence and mortality have increased, while the age-standardised rates (ASRs) have shown a decreasing trend. The disease burden was more pronounced in men, the elderly, and regions with a high socio-demographic index (SDI), where ageing and population growth played varying roles across subtypes. From 2000 to 2006, disease burdens were most effectively controlled. Global ASRs of incidence might stabilise, while ASRs of death are expected to decrease until 2030. Frontier analysis showed that middle and high-middle SDI countries have the most improvement potential. Smoking and high body mass index were the main risk factors for leukaemia-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years. Conclusions: The absolute number of leukaemia cases has increased worldwide, but there has been a sharp decline in ASRs over the past decade, primarily driven by population growth and ageing. Countries with middle and high-middle SDI urgently need to take action to address this challenge.

Epidemiological features and temporal trends of the co-infection between HIV and tuberculosis, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: The co-infection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant clinical challenge and is a major global public health issue. This study aims to elucidate the disease burden of HIV-TB co-infection in global, regions and countries, providing critical information for policy decisions to curb the HIV-TB epidemic. METHODS: The ecological time-series study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. The data encompass the numbers of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY), as well as age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), and DALY rate for HIV-infected drug-susceptible tuberculosis (HIV-DS-TB), HIV-infected multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (HIV-MDR-TB), and HIV-infected extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (HIV-XDR-TB) from 1990 to 2021. from 1990 to 2021. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of rates, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), was calculated. RESULTS: In 2021, the global ASIR for HIV-DS-TB was 11.59 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.37-13.05 per 100,000 population), 0.55 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.38-0.81 per 100,000 population), for HIV-MDR-TB, and 0.02 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.01-0.03 per 100,000 population) for HIV-XDR-TB. The EAPC for the ASIR of HIV-MDR-TB and HIV-XDR-TB from 1990 to 2021 were 4.71 (95% CI: 1.92-7.59) and 13.63 (95% CI: 9.44-18.01), respectively. The global ASMR for HIV-DS-TB was 2.22 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 1.73-2.74 per 100,000 population), 0.21 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.09-0.39 per 100,000 population) for HIV-MDR-TB, and 0.01 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.00-0.03 per 100,000 population) for HIV-XDR-TB in 2021. The EAPC for the ASMR of HIV-MDR-TB and HIV-XDR-TB from 1990 to 2021 were 4.78 (95% CI: 1.32-8.32) and 10.00 (95% CI: 6.09-14.05), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that enhancing diagnostic and treatment strategies, strengthening healthcare infrastructure, increasing access to quality medical care, and improving public health education are essential to combat HIV-TB co-infection.

Changes in the epidemiological trends of primary liver cancer in the Asia-Pacific region.

Primary liver cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality. The increasing prevalence of metabolic syndrome and alcohol consumption, along with the existing burden of viral hepatitis, could significantly heighten the impact of primary liver cancer. However, the specific effects of these factors in the Asia-Pacific region, which comprises more than half of the global population, remain largely unexplored. This study aims to analyze the epidemiology of primary liver cancer in the Asia-Pacific region. We evaluated regional and national data from the Global Burden of Disease study spanning 2010 to 2019 to assess the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years associated with primary liver cancer in the Asia-Pacific region. During the study period, there were an estimated 364,700 new cases of primary liver cancer and 324,100 deaths, accounting for 68 and 67% of the global totals, respectively. Upward trends were observed in the age-standardized incidence rates of primary liver cancer due to metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MASLD) and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as an increase in primary liver cancer from Hepatitis B virus infection in the Western Pacific region. Notably, approximately 17% of new cases occurred in individuals aged 15-49 years. Despite an overall decline in the burden of primary liver cancer in the Asia-Pacific region over the past decade, increases in incidence were noted for several etiologies, including MASLD and ALD. However, viral hepatitis remains the leading cause, responsible for over 60% of the total burden. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address the rising burden of primary liver cancer in the Asia-Pacific region.

Temporal trends of ischemic stroke attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in China from the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: Currently ischemic stroke poses a serious disease burden globally, and high fasting plasma glucose is one of the important risk factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the disease burden of ischemic stroke due to fasting glucose during 1990-2019 in China, to estimate the effect of age, period, and cohort on the trend of ischemic stroke disease burden, and to predict the disease burden of ischemic stroke in 2020-2030. Methods: Ischemic stroke burden data were obtained by screening from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) database for high-risk populations in China. Annual average percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using the Joinpoint regression model to assess the trend of ischemic stroke burden between 1990 and 2019. Age-period-cohort models were introduced to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on ischemic stroke burden, and to predict the ischemic stroke burden in 2020-2030 based on Bayesian age-period-cohort models. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the number of ischemic stroke deaths due to high fasting plasma glucose in China continued to increase with an AAPC of 3.61. Trends in age-standardized incidence rates did not show statistical significance. In the age-period-cohort analysis, the age effect of ischemic stroke burden showed a continuously increasing trend over the study period. The period effect showed an overall favorable trend over the study period. The overall and cohort effects for males showed an overall increasing trend, whereas the cohort effect for females showed a decreasing trend after a decreasing trend for the 1945 birth cohort. Conclusions: This study found that ischemic stroke due to high fasting plasma glucose in China has generally fluctuated between 1990 and 2019, with a decreasing trend in recent years, and projections also suggest that it will continue to show a decreasing trend in the future. Age and period of birth were the main elements influencing the burden of disease, especially among the elderly and men. Policies should be used to promote the prevention of known risk factors and to strengthen health management for key populations.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends of migraine among youths and young adults aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Migraine, a widespread neurological condition, substantially affects the quality of life, particularly for adolescents and young adults. While its impact is significant, there remains a paucity of comprehensive global research on the burden of migraine in younger demographics. Our study sought to elucidate the global prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with migraine in the 15-39 age group from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. METHODS: Our comprehensive study analyzed migraine data from the GBD 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs across 204 countries and territories over a 32-year span. We stratified the information by age, sex, year, geographical region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). To evaluate temporal trends in these metrics, we employed the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2021, the worldwide prevalence of migraine among 15-39 year-olds increased substantially. By 2021, an estimated 593.8 million cases were reported, representing a 39.52% rise from 425.6 million cases in 1990. Global trends showed increases in age-standardized prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALY rate for migraine during this period. The EAPC were positive for all three metrics: 0.09 for ASPR, 0.03 for ASIR, and 0.09 for DALY rate. Regions with medium SDI reported the highest absolute numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs in 2021. However, high SDI regions demonstrated the most elevated rates overall. Across the globe, migraine prevalence peaked in the 35-39 age group. Notably, female rates consistently exceeded male rates across all age categories. CONCLUSION: The global impact of migraine on youths and young adults has grown considerably from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. This escalating burden necessitates targeted interventions and public health initiatives, especially in areas and populations disproportionately affected by migraine.

Global burden of gynaecological cancers in 2022 and projections to 2050.

Background: The incidence and mortality of gynaecological cancers can significantly impact women's quality of life and increase the health care burden for organisations globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate global inequalities in the incidence and mortality of gynaecological cancers in 2022, based on The Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022 estimates. The future burden of gynaecological cancers (GCs) in 2050 was also projected. Methods: Data regarding to the total cases and deaths related to gynaecological cancer, as well as cases and deaths pertaining to different subtypes of GCs, gathered from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2022. Predictions for the number of cases and deaths in the year 2050 were derived from global demographic projections, categorised by world region and Human Development Index (HDI). Results: In 2022, there were 1 473 427 new cases of GCs and 680 372 deaths. The incidence of gynecological cancer reached 30.3 per 100 000, and the mortality rate hit 13.2 per 100 000. The age-standardised incidence of GCs in Eastern Africa is higher than 50 per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised incidence in Northern Africa is 17.1 per 100 000. The highest mortality rates were found in East Africa (ASMR (age-standardised mortality rates) of 35.3 per 100 000) and the lowest in Australia and New Zealand (ASMR of 8.1 per 100 000). These are related to the endemic areas of HIV and HPV. Very High HDI countries had the highest incidence of GCs, with ASIR (age-standardised incidence rates) of 34.8 per 100 000, and low HDI countries had the second highest incidence rate, with an ASIR of 33.0 per 100 000. Eswatini had the highest incidence and mortality (105.4 per 100 000; 71.1 per 100 000) and Yemen the lowest (5.8 per 100 000; 4.4 per 100 000). If the current trends in morbidity and mortality are maintained, number of new cases and deaths from female reproductive tract tumours is projected to increase over the next two decades. Conclusions: In 2022, gynaecological cancers accounted for 1 473 427 new cases and 680 372 deaths globally, with significant regional disparities in incidence and mortality rates. The highest rates were observed in Eastern Africa and countries with very high and low HDI, with Eswatini recording the most severe statistics. If current trends continue, the number of new cases and deaths from gynaecological cancers is expected to rise over the next two decades, highlighting the urgent need for effective interventions.

Global burden of osteoarthritis: Prevalence and temporal trends from 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and temporal trends for hip, knee, hand, and other osteoarthritis (OA) at a global, continental, and national level. DESIGN: The estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for case number and ASPR of OA were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019. The joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to examine the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, the global ASPR of hip, knee, hand, and other OA was 400.95 (95% UI: 312.77-499.41), 4375.95 (95% UI: 3793.04-5004.9), 1726.38 (95% UI: 1319.91-2254.85), and 745.62 (95% UI: 570.16-939.8). As for the ASPR of hip OA, hand OA, and other OA, Europe and America had higher rates than Asia and Africa, and Asia was second only to America in knee OA ASPRs. The period 1990-2019, the ASPR at global level dropped significantly for hand OA (AAPC = -0.4%, 95% CI: -0.47 to -0.34) and increased significantly for hip OA (AAPC = 0.43%, 95% CI: 0.39-0.46), knee OA (AAPC = 0.17%, 95% CI: 0.09-0.24) and other OA (AAPC = 0.16%, 95% CI: 0.15-0.17). Different continents, countries, and periods demonstrated significant changes. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, America has the highest OA burden and Asia has a higher knee OA burden. Appropriate prevention and control measures to reduce modifiable risk factors are needed to reduce the burden of OA.

Global, regional, national epidemiology and trends of neglected tropical diseases in youths and young adults aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2019: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, the escalating concern for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has been recognized as a pressing global health issue. This concern is acutely manifested in low- and middle-income countries, where there is an escalating prevalence among adolescents and young adults. The burgeoning of these conditions threatens to impair patients' occupational capabilities and overall life quality. Despite the considerable global impact of NTDs, comprehensive studies focusing on their impact in younger populations remain scarce. Our study aims to describe the global prevalence of neglected tropical diseases among people aged 15 to 39 years over the 30-year period from 1990 to 2019, and to project the disease burden of the disease up to 2040. METHODS: Annual data on incident cases, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for NTDs were procured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). These data were stratified by global and regional distribution, country, social development index (SDI), age, and sex. We computed age-standardized rates (ASRs) and the numbers of incident cases, mortalities, and DALYs from 1990 to 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the ASRs was calculated to evaluate evolving trends. RESULTS: In 2019, it was estimated that there were approximately 552 million NTD cases globally (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 519.9 million to 586.3 million), a 29% decrease since 1990. South Asia reported the highest NTD prevalence, with an estimated 171.7 million cases (95% UI: 150.4 million to 198.6 million). Among the five SDI categories, the prevalence of NTDs was highest in the moderate and low SDI regions in 1990 (approximately 270.5 million cases) and 2019 (approximately 176.5 million cases). Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the most significant decline in NTD cases over the past three decades. Overall, there was a significant inverse correlation between the disease burden of NTDs and SDI. CONCLUSION: NTDs imposed over half a billion incident cases and 10.8 million DALYs lost globally in 2019-exerting an immense toll rivaling major infectious and non-communicable diseases. Encouraging declines in prevalence and disability burdens over the past three decades spotlight the potential to accelerate progress through evidence-based allocation of resources. Such strategic integration could substantially enhance public awareness about risk factors and available treatment options.

Trend and projection of the prevalence and burden of near vision loss in China and globally from 1990 to 2030: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.

Background: Few studies have investigated near vision loss (NVL) in China. To address this gap, we aimed to explore trends in the prevalence and disease burden of NVL from 1990 to 2019 and to predict trends over the next decade. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we calculated the age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), age-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and annual percentage change (EAPC) in China and different regions. We then used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) predictive model to predict the prevalence trends from 2020 to 2030 in both contexts. Results: At the global level, ASPRs increased from 5613.27 in 1990 to 5937.81 per 100 000 population in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.06. The ASPR in China specifically decreased from 7538.14 in 1990 to 7392.86 per 100 000 population in 2019 (EAPC = -0.02). The age-standardised DALY rate was higher in women than in men, both globally and in China. The NVL burden was relatively higher in low-income regions, low sociodemographic index regions, and the South-East Asia Region compared to other regions. The predictive model indicated that the ASR trend for NVL slowly increased at a global level after 2020, yet decreased in China. Conclusions: Despite a decline in the age-standardised prevalence of NVL in China over the next decade, the current burden remains substantial. To alleviate this burden, decision-makers should adopt inclusive approaches by involving all stakeholders.

Global, regional, and national burdens of atopic dermatitis under 14: a trend analysis and future prediction based on the global burden of disease study 2019.

OBJECTIVE: The aim is to evaluate the global, regional, and national trends in the burden of children and adolescents under 14 from 1990 to 2019, as well as future trend predictions. METHODS: In Global Burden of Disease (GBD), we reported the incidence, prevalence rate and the years lived with disability (YLDs), the incidence per 100,000 people, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC). We further analyzed these global trends by age, gender, and social development index (SDI). We use joinpoint regression analysis to determine the year with the largest global trend change. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) was used for predictions. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate, prevalence and YLDs of AD under 14 years old showed a downward trend. The incidence rate of AD among people under 5 years old has the largest decline [AAPC: -0.13 (95% CI: -0.15 to -0.11), P < 0.001]. The incidence rate, prevalence and YLDs of AD in women were higher than those in men regardless of age group. Regional, Asia has the highest AD incidence rate in 2019. National, Mongolia has the highest AD incidence rate in 2019. The largest drop in AD incidence rate, prevalence and YLDs between 1990 and 2019 was in the United States. CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence rate of children and adolescents under 14 declined. With the emergence of therapeutic drugs, the prevalence and YLDs rate declined significantly. From 2020 to 2030, there is still a downward trend.

The burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the Middle East and North Africa region and its associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation and flutter (AFF) are the most common cardiac arrhythmias globally, contributing to substantial morbidity and mortality. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region face unique challenges in managing cardiovascular diseases, including AFF, due to diverse sociodemographic factors and healthcare infrastructure variability. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the burden of AFF in MENA from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, a comprehensive source incorporating diverse data inputs. The study collected global, regional, and national Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR), and Age-Standardized Disability-Adjusted Rate (ASDR), Mortality across sex, age groups, and years. LOESS regression was employed to determine the relationship between age-standardized rates attributed to AFF and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). RESULTS: The study found minimal change in ASIR of AFF in MENA from 1990 to 2019, with a slight increase observed in ASMR and ASDR during the same period. Notably, AFF burden was consistently higher in females compared to males, with age showing a direct positive relationship with AFF burden. Iraq, Iran, and Turkey exhibited the highest ASIR, while Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman had the highest ASMR and ASDR in 2019. Conversely, Kuwait, Libya, and Turkey displayed the lowest ASMR and ASDR rates. CONCLUSION: This study underscores the persistent burden of AFF in MENA and identifies significant disparities across countries. High systolic blood pressure emerged as a prominent risk factor for mortality in AFF patients. Findings provide crucial insights for policy-making efforts, resource allocation, and intervention strategies aimed at reducing the burden of cardiovascular diseases in the MENA region.

Global burden and attributable risk factors of breast cancer in young women: historical trends from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts to 2030 by sociodemographic index regions and countries.

Background: Breast cancer in young women (BCY) is much less common but has significant health sequelae and societal costs. We aimed to evaluate the global and regional burden of breast cancer in women aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected detailed data on breast cancer from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Data Resources. The age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardised disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to assess the disease burden of BCY. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to forecast disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Results: From 1990 to 2019, significant increases in ASIR were found for BCY (EAPC = 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.5 to 0.68), whereas decreases in ASMR (EAPC = -0.41, 95% CI = -0.53 to -0.3) and ASDR (EAPC = -0.35, 95% CI = -0.46 to -0.24). Across countries with varying sociodemographic indexes (SDI), all regions showed an upward trend in BCY morbidity, except for countries with a high SDI. While mortality and DALYs rates have decreased in countries with high, high-middle, and middle SDI, they have increased in countries with low-middle and low SDI. Countries with lower SDIs are projected to bear the greatest burden of BCY over the next decade, including both low and low-middle categories. Alcohol use was the main risk factor attributed to BCY deaths in most countries, while exposure to second hand smoke was the predominant risk factor for BCY deaths in middle and low-middle SDI countries. Conclusions: The burden of breast cancer in young women is on the rise worldwide, and there are significant regional differences. Countries with a low-middle or low SDI face even more challenges, as they experienced a more significant and increasing BCY burden than countries with higher SDIs.

The trend analysis of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections among the elderly aged 50 to 69 years from 1990 to 2030.

Background: The HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) excluding HIV among the elderly population urgently require more attention and in-depth study. We aimed to present and predict the worldwide of its burden from 1990 to 2030 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Methods: Leveraging the 2019 GBD study, we investigated the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of HIV and other STI in incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality rates for individuals aged 50-69 across different age groups, genders, sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, and nations. The incidence of STI in the population from 2020 to 2030 was explored by Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model. Results: The HIV incidence rate experienced its fastest growth 1990-1992, peaked in 1996, and gradually declined thereafter, with the 2019 rate being lower than that of 1990. The prevalence rate didn't present a sharp turning point. After 2006, its growth rate accelerated. Both DALYs and mortality rates plateaued high between 2002 and 2005, followed by a decline. The decline was steepest from 2005-2012, yet the rate of decrease slowed noticeably from 2012-2019.When segmented by age, HIV was more prevalent among those aged 55-59 and 50-54, with the 50-54 age group witnessing the fastest decline in incidence rates. However, the fastest growth in prevalence rates was seen among the 60-64 and 65-69 age groups. The other STI incidence rate declined from 1990-1996, increased up to 2006, declined until 2015, and then saw a resurgence with accelerated growth thereafter. The prevalence rate showcased varied trends, with a notable increase in the past five years. The highest growth in incidence rate was among the 65-69 age group. We predict that the incidence rate of STI will increase in the future. Conclusions: Overall, despite the evident decline in incidence, mortality rates, and DALYs, the prevalence of HIV and other STI among the elderly is rising, and both demonstrated significant trend variations across different ages, genders, SDI regions, and nations. Comprehensive sexual health education, clinical care and adjustments in health service strategies based on the evolving trends of HIV and other STI among the elderly are paramount.

Global incidence trends of early-onset colorectal cancer and related exposures in early-life: an ecological analysis based on the GBD 2019.

Background: The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) is increasing globally. This study aims to describe the temporal trends of incidence and explore related risk exposures in early-life at the country level based on the GBD 2019. Methods: Data on the incidence and attributable risk factors of EOCRC were obtained from the GBD 2019. Temporal trends of age-standardized incidence were evaluated by average annual percentage change (AAPC). Early-life exposures were indicated as summary exposure values (SEV) of selected factors, SDI and GDP per capita in previous decades and at ages 0-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years. Weighted linear or non-linear regressions were applied to evaluate the ecological aggregate associations of the exposures with incidences of EOCRC. Results: The global age-standardized incidence of EOCRC increased from 3.05 (3.03, 3.07) to 3.85 (3.83, 3.86) per 100,000 during 1990 and 2019. The incidence was higher in countries with high socioeconomic levels, and increased drastically in countries in East Asia and Caribbean, particularly Jamaica, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam. The GDP per capita, SDI, and SEVs of iron deficiency, alcohol use, high body-mass index, and child growth failure in earlier years were more closely related with the incidences of EOCRC in 2019. Exposures at ages 0-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years were also associated with the incidences, particularly for the exposures at ages 15-19 years. Conclusion: The global incidence of EOCRC increased during past three decades. The large variations at regional and national level may be related with the distribution of risk exposures in early life.

Analyzing the infertility burden of polycystic ovarian syndrome in China: A comprehensive age-period-cohort analysis with future burden prediction (1990-2030).

OBJECTIVE: Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) is a common but complex endocrine disorder widely linked to infertility and miscarriage. This study assessed the correlation between PCOS and infertility. METHODS: Using the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database, we conducted an in-depth assessment of the disease burden attributed to PCOS in China. This analysis was performed using the joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. RESULTS: Between 1990-2019, an upward trend was observed in the age-standardized prevalence of PCOS-related female infertility in China. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed an increasing trend in the age-standardized prevalence of PCOS-related female infertility burden indicators as well as the average annual percentage change and annual percentage change across all age groups in China. In terms of the cohort effect, the period rate ratios associated with the age-standardized prevalence of PCOS-related infertility increased steadily over time. The ARIMA model predicted a relatively swift upward trend in the age-standardized prevalence of PCOS-related infertility in China from 2020-2030. CONCLUSION: The age-standardized prevalence of PCOS-related female infertility in China has increased between 1990-2019. The ARIMA model predicted that the age-standardized prevalence of this disease may continue to increase over the next decade. This study can increase the public's attention, improve women's health awareness, and have a certain significance for reducing female infertility related to PCOS.

Burden of gastrointestinal cancers among people younger than 50 years in China, 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the burden of early-onset gastrointestinal (GI) cancers in China over three decades. STUDY DESIGN: A comprehensive analysis was performed using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS: Data on early-onset GI cancers in 2020 and from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2020 database and GBD 2019, respectively. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated to analyze the temporal trends using the Joinpoint Regression Program. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends up to 2030. RESULTS: In China, there were 185,980 incident cases and 119,116 deaths of early-onset GI cancer in 2020, with the highest incidence and mortality observed in liver cancer (new cases: 71,662; deaths: 62,412). The spectrum of early-onset GI cancers in China has transitioned over the last 30 years. The age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years for colorectal and pancreatic cancers exhibited rapid increases (AAPC >0, P ≤ 0.001). The fastest-growing incidence rate was found in colorectal cancer (AAPC: 3.06, P < 0.001). Despite the decreases in liver, gastric, and esophageal cancers, these trends have been reversed or flattened in recent years. High body mass index was found to be the fastest-growing risk factor for early-onset GI cancers (estimated annual percentage change: 2.75-4.19, P < 0.05). Projection analyses showed an increasing trend in age-standardized incidence rates for almost all early-onset GI cancers during 2020-2030. CONCLUSIONS: The transitioning pattern of early-onset GI cancers in China emphasizes the urgency of addressing this public health challenge.

Temporal Trends and Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease in South Asia: A Comprehensive Analysis of Three Decades from Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: The objective of this study is to conduct a temporal analysis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) disease burden trends over a 30-year period (1991 to 2021), focusing on prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the South Asia (SA). Methods: In this ecological study, we analyzed data regarding burden of RHD from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study spanning the years 1991 to 2021 for the SA Region. Estimates of the number RHD-related prevalence, deaths, and DALYs along with age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were evaluated. Results: The overall prevalent cases of RHD in the 2021 were 54785.1 × 103 (43328.4 × 103 to 67605.5 × 103), out of which 14378.8 × 103 (11206.9 × 103 to 18056.9 × 103) were from SA. The ASR of point prevalence showed upward trend between 1991 and 2021, at global level and for SA with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.40 (0.39 to 0.40) and 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13), respectively. The overall number of RHD-related deaths in the 2021 were 373.3 × 103 (324.1 × 103 to 444.8 × 103), out of which 215 × 103 (176.9 × 103 to 287.8 × 103) were from SA, representing 57.6% of the global deaths. The ASR of deaths also showed downward trend between 1991 and 2021, at global level and for SA with an AAPC of -2.66 (-2.70 to -2.63) and -2.07 (-2.14 to -2.00), respectively. The ASR of DALYs showed downward trend between 1990 and 2019, at global level and for South Asian region with an AAPC of -2.47 (-2.49 to -2.44) and -2.22 (-2.27 to -2.17), respectively. Conclusion: The rising age-standardized prevalence of RHD remains a global concern, especially in South Asia which contribute to over 50% of global RHD-related deaths. Encouragingly, declining trends in RHD-related deaths and DALYs hint at progress in RHD management and treatment on both a global and regional scale.

Global burden of myocarditis in youth and middle age (1990-2019): A systematic analysis of the disease burden and thirty-year forecast.

BACKGROUND: Myocarditis is increasingly recognized as a critical health issue, particularly among youth and middle-aged populations. This study aims to analyze the global burden and trends of myocarditis in these age groups to emphasize the need for region-specific prevention and treatment strategies. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study (1990-2019), we evaluated the age-standardized rates (ASR) of myocarditis in individuals aged 10 to 54 years. We calculated average annual percentage changes (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Additionally, we examined the correlation between myocarditis incidence and the Human Development Index (HDI) and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Age and sex trends in myocarditis were analyzed, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were used to forecast prevalence trends up to 2050. RESULTS: The High-income Asia Pacific region had the highest ASR of myocarditis, while North Africa and the Middle East had the lowest. North Africa and the Middle East also experienced the fastest average annual growth in ASR, whereas High-income North America saw the most significant decline. Correlational analysis showed that countries with a high SDI exhibited higher myocarditis ASR. The burden of myocarditis was greater among males than females, with this disparity increasing with age. Projections indicate a stable trend in the incidence of myocarditis among the youth and middle-aged population up to 2050, although the total number of cases is expected to rise. CONCLUSION: Our study reveals a significant upward trend in myocarditis among youth and middle-aged populations, highlighting the urgency for early monitoring and preventative strategies.

Pancreatic cancer mortality trends attributable to high fasting blood sugar over the period 1990-2019 and projections up to 2040.

Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a prevalent malignancy within the digestive system, with diabetes recognized as one of its well-established risk factors. Methods: Data on PC mortality attributed to high fasting blood sugar were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 online database. To assess the temporal trends of PC burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) between 1990 and 2019 were determined using a generalized linear model. Furthermore, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model using the integrated nested Laplacian approximation algorithm was employed to project the disease burden over the next 20 years. Results: Globally, the crude death number of PC attributable to HFPG almost tripled (from 13,065.7 in 1990 to 48,358.5 in 2019) from 1990 to 2019, and the ASDR increased from 0.36/100,000 to 0.61/100,000 with an EAPC of 2.04 (95% CI 1.91-2.16). The population aged ≥70 years accounted for nearly 60% of total deaths in 2019 and experienced a more significant increase, with the death number increasing approximately fourfold and the ASDR increasing annually by 2.65%. In regions with different sociodemographic indexes (SDIs), the highest disease burden was observed in the high-SDI region, whereas more pronounced increasing trends in ASDR were observed in the low to middle-SDI, low-SDI, and middle-SDI regions. Additionally, a significantly negative association was found between EAPCs and ASDRs of PC attributable to HFPG from 1990 to 2019. Moreover, the BAPC model predicts that ASDR and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate for PC attributed to HFPG was projected to increase obviously for men and women from 2019 to 2040. Conclusions: The burden of PC attributed to HFPG has increased globally over the past three decades, with the elderly population and high-SDI regions carrying a relatively greater disease burden, but more adverse trends observed in low-SDI areas. Furthermore, the burden is projected to continue increasing over the next 20 years. Hence, more tailored prevention methodologies should be established to mitigate this increasing trend.