Informing evidence-based policy during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery period: learning from a national evidence centre.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the vital need for research to inform policy decision-making and save lives. The Wales COVID-19 Evidence Centre (WCEC) was established in March 2021 and funded for two years, to make evidence about the impact of the pandemic and ongoing research priorities for Wales available and actionable to policy decision-makers, service leads and the public. OBJECTIVES: We describe the approaches we developed and our experiences, challenges and future vision. PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION: The centre operated with a core team, including a public partnership group, and six experienced research groups as collaborating partners. Our rapid evidence delivery process had five stages: 1. Stakeholder engagement (continued throughout all stages); 2. Research question prioritisation; 3. Bespoke rapid evidence review methodology in a phased approach; 4. Rapid primary research; and 5. Knowledge Mobilisation to ensure the evidence was available for decision-makers. MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS: Between March 2021-23 we engaged with 44 stakeholder groups, completed 35 Rapid Evidence Reviews, six Rapid Evidence Maps and 10 Rapid Evidence Summaries. We completed four primary research studies, with three published in peer reviewed journals, and seven ongoing. Our evidence informed policy decision-making and was cited in 19 Welsh Government papers. These included pandemic infection control measures, the Action Plan to tackle gender inequalities, and Education Renew and Reform policy. We conducted 24 Welsh Government evidence briefings and three public facing symposia. POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Strong engagement with stakeholder groups, a phased rapid evidence review approach, and primary research to address key gaps in current knowledge enabled high-quality efficient, evidence outputs to be delivered to help inform Welsh policy decision-making during the pandemic. We learn from these processes to continue to deliver evidence from March 2023 as the Health and Care Research Wales Evidence Centre, with a broader remit of health and social care, to help inform policy and practice decisions during the recovery phase and beyond.

Prevalence and predictors of self-medication to prevent or treat COVID-19 among undergraduate students in Southern Brazil.

Self-medication (SM) is the practice of consuming medicines without a prescription. Despite being a potentially dangerous action, SM is practiced globally and has been highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to evaluate SM for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 and the factors associated with this practice among undergraduate students in Southern Brazil. A cross-sectional study was conducted between July and November 2020 using an electronic questionnaire to collect information about the practice of SM and the associated sociodemographic characteristics, health perception, and lifestyle. We collected 1,553 responses and identified a prevalence of 14.9% for SM. The risk factors for SM were earning between BRL 2,101 and BRL 5,250, studying at a public university, and studying a distance undergraduate course. The protective factors were age above 30 years, female sex, working or participating in internships, occasionally recommending their own medications to other people, and worsening health during the pandemic. The main drugs or products used were ivermectin, vitamins C and D, tea, azithromycin, zinc, and propolis. Our data could help in the development of health education measures to reduce SM among undergraduate students and guide the population regarding the risks of this practice.

Utilizing disease transmission and response capacities to optimize covid-19 control in Malaysia.

OBJECTIVES: Public Health Social Measures (PHSM) such as movement restriction movement needed to be adjusted accordingly during the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure low disease transmission alongside adequate health system capacities based on the COVID-19 situational matrix proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO). This paper aims to develop a mechanism to determine the COVID-19 situational matrix to adjust movement restriction intensity for the control of COVID-19 in Malaysia. METHODS: Several epidemiological indicators were selected based on the WHO PHSM interim guidance report and validated individually and in several combinations to estimate the community transmission level (CT) and health system response capacity (RC) variables. Correlation analysis between CT and RC with COVID-19 cases was performed to determine the most appropriate CT and RC variables. Subsequently, the CT and RC variables were combined to form a composite COVID-19 situational matrix (SL). The SL matrix was validated using correlation analysis with COVID-19 case trends. Subsequently, an automated web-based system that generated daily CT, RC, and SL was developed. RESULTS: CT and RC variables were estimated using case incidence and hospitalization rate; Hospital bed capacity and COVID-19 ICU occupancy respectively. The estimated CT and RC were strongly correlated [ρ = 0.806 (95% CI 0.752, 0.848); and ρ = 0.814 (95% CI 0.778, 0.839), p < 0.001] with the COVID-19 cases. The estimated SL was strongly correlated with COVID-19 cases (ρ = 0.845, p < 0.001) and responded well to the various COVID-19 case trends during the pandemic. SL changes occurred earlier during the increase of cases but slower during the decrease, indicating a conservative response. The automated web-based system developed produced daily real-time CT, RC, and SL for the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The indicators selected and combinations formed were able to generate validated daily CT and RC levels for Malaysia. Subsequently, the CT and RC levels were able to provide accurate and sensitive information for the estimation of SL which provided valuable evidence on the progression of the pandemic and movement restriction adjustment for the control of Malaysia.

A study on the "Porter Hypothesis" effect of the regulatory measures of the environmental protection tax law in the post-pandemic era.

The implementation of the Environmental Protection Tax Law was a significant milestone in China's environmental tax reform. The implementation of this law was influenced throughout the three-year period of epidemic prevention and control (from early 2020 to the end of 2022). Heavily polluting enterprises are the primary focus of regulations under the Environmental Protection Tax Law. This study conducts an empirical analysis using a structural equation model, leveraging sample data obtained from heavily polluting enterprises in China. The findings indicate that during the three-year period of epidemic prevention and control, the Porter Hypothesis effect was realized in terms of tax fairness but not in terms of tax rationality. Therefore, environmental tax law reforms should be pursued and tax authorities in China should make vigorous efforts to enhance the rationality of environmental taxation. This would improve the comprehensiveness of the "Porter Hypothesis" effect, fully harnessing the dual functions of environmental protection and the economic driving force embodied by the Environmental Protection Tax Law.

Trade shocks and trade diversion due to epidemic diseases: Evidence from 110 countries.

COVID-19 has been a massive trade shock that has disrupted global trade, making the last few years a special phase. Even during normal times, epidemic diseases have acted as trade shocks in specific countries, albeit not to the same extent as COVID-19. For some trade shocks, the situation normalizes after the disease transmission is over; for some, it does not. Thus, specific countries can sometimes lose their original trade ratio due to trade diversion; that is, an epidemic disease could lead to unexpected industry restructuring. To examine this, based on data on 110 WHO members from 1996 to 2018, we use a fixed-effect panel model supported by the Hausman Test to empirically identify whether epidemic diseases can cause trade shocks and trade diversion. We find: First, epidemic disease can lead to negative shocks to a country's trade growth and its ratio of worldwide trade. Second, with a longer epidemic, the probability of the trade diversion effect increases. Our results hold even after considering country heterogeneity. This presents a considerable concern about the shock of COVID-19 lasting further. Many countries are not just facing the problem of temporary trade shocks, but also the challenge of trade diversions. In particular, the probability of trade diversions is increasing rapidly, especially for late-developed countries due to their lack of epidemic containment and vaccine-producing capabilities. Even middle and high income countries cannot ignore global industry chain restructuring. Forward-looking policies should be implemented in advance; it may be too late when long-term trade damage is shown.

Development and testing of a questionnaire on the expectations and experiences with wearing face masks in inpatient and day hospitals.

BACKGROUND: The Covid-19 pandemic made wearing of face masks mandatory in the psychotherapeutic context. Against this background, the present study aimed to compare the expectations of patients undergoing day-hospital or inpatient treatment regarding wearing a mask in psychotherapy before the start of therapy with the final experience after the end of therapy. The study also investigated the extent to which expectations and experiences were influenced by other factors such as socio-demographic characteristics, patients' general attitudes towards wearing a mask, duration of treatment, or mental health diagnoses. METHODS: Patients' expectations and experiences were recorded using two versions of a self-developed questionnaire: the pre-version, which was administered before the start of therapy and recorded expectations, and the post-version, which was administered after the end of therapy and recorded the final experiences. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted for the questionnaire's pre- and post-version. T-tests for paired samples were calculated to compare the patients' expectations regarding the extracted factors with the final experiences. Bivariate correlations were calculated to explore the association of other potential factors with expectations and experiences. RESULTS: The exploratory factor analysis revealed a three-factor structure: communication barriers, self-confidence, and infection protection. The communication barriers expected by the patients before the start of the therapy turned out to be significantly higher than ultimately experienced after the therapy. Higher age correlated significantly negatively with expectations and experiences, with less self-confidence expected and experienced in therapy with a mask by older patients. There was a significant positive correlation between the expectations and the duration of treatment. Patients' general attitudes correlated significantly with their expectations and experiences. CONCLUSION: Based on the results, wearing a mask does not appear to negatively impact the success of psychotherapy from the patient's perspective. However, patient-specific characteristics also appear to play a role in this context.

Characterizing the antigenic evolution of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 from 2009 to 2023.

The H1N1pdm09 virus has been a persistent threat to public health since the 2009 pandemic. Particularly, since the relaxation of COVID-19 pandemic mitigation measures, the influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 have been concurrently prevalent worldwide. To determine the antigenic evolution pattern of H1N1pdm09 and develop preventive countermeasures, we collected influenza sequence data and immunological data to establish a new antigenic evolution analysis framework. A machine learning model (XGBoost, accuracy = 0.86, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.89) was constructed using epitopes, physicochemical properties, receptor binding sites, and glycosylation sites as features to predict the antigenic similarity relationships between influenza strains. An antigenic correlation network was constructed, and the Markov clustering algorithm was used to identify antigenic clusters. Subsequently, the antigenic evolution pattern of H1N1pdm09 was analyzed at the global and regional scales across three continents. We found that H1N1pdm09 evolved into around five antigenic clusters between 2009 and 2023 and that their antigenic evolution trajectories were characterized by cocirculation of multiple clusters, low-level persistence of former dominant clusters, and local heterogeneity of cluster circulations. Furthermore, compared with the seasonal H1N1 virus, the potential cluster-transition determining sites of H1N1pdm09 were restricted to epitopes Sa and Sb. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of machine learning methods for characterizing antigenic evolution of viruses, developed a specific model to rapidly identify H1N1pdm09 antigenic variants, and elucidated their evolutionary patterns. Our findings may provide valuable support for the implementation of effective surveillance strategies and targeted prevention efforts to mitigate the impact of H1N1pdm09.

Chapitre 2. Le télétravail et la prévention des risques professionnels.

The Covid-19 pandemic has spurred the development of telecommuting in many companies, which are now tending to make it a permanent fixture for activities that lend themselves to it. Despite its advantages, however, telecommuting does not exclude all occupational risks when carried out from the employee’s home. Under these conditions, the employer must guarantee the protection of teleworkers’ health by virtue of his safety obligation. But the implementation of a preventive approach is severely challenged by a private space that is beyond the employer’s control. What are these difficulties? How can we proceed? The ANI of November 26, which clarifies the legal framework for telecommuting, offers a few clues, and suggests a form of empowerment for employees and their managers.

"That was one of my most difficult and biggest challenges": experiences, preconditions and preventive measures of health-oriented leadership in virtual teams - A qualitative study with virtual leaders.

BACKGROUND: Health-oriented leadership (HoL) has a positive impact on health- and work-related outcomes of employees in face-to-face settings. Increased digitization during the COVID-19 pandemic has led to many changes and increased job demands. According to current state of research, HoL in virtual teamwork is insufficiently researched. The aim of the study is to examine the experiences of virtual leaders during the COVID-19 pandemic and to identify preconditions and preventive measures for promoting HoL. METHOD: Using a qualitative study design, semi-structured, guide-based telephone interviews were conducted with 16 German virtual leaders between May and July 2021. The collected data were inductively analyzed and interpreted using qualitative content analysis according to Mayring. Explorative analyses of differences between leaders with and without pre-pandemic experiences with virtual leadership were made. RESULTS: Results indicated that leaders, regardless of pre-pandemic experiences with virtual leadership, faced diverse challenges in implementing HoL in virtual teamwork during the COVID-19 pandemic. Virtual leaders perceived personal preconditions (e.g., leaders' characteristics or behaviors), organizational preconditions (support by management or open-minded corporate culture), social preconditions (e.g., social support by team) and technical preconditions (e.g., sufficient technical equipment) as conducive to implementation of HoL. Almost all leaders with pre-pandemic experience identified a need for structural preventive measures, whereas almost all leaders without pre-pandemic experience reported a need for behavioral preventive measures in order to promote HoL in virtual teams. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that implementing HoL in virtual teamwork is challenging, complex and requires adjustments in leadership behavior. Thereby, the study provides initial empirical findings for a holistic approach to HoL implementation in virtual teams, considering beneficial multilevel preconditions. Due to a limited generalization of present results, longitudinal and interventional studies will be necessary for the analysis of causal relationships in future research. In particular, a holistic research perspective in order to understand the complex, contextual interdependencies of leadership is recommended. In practice, based on a differentiated needs analysis, structural preventive measures for a holistic organizational development as well as behavioral preventive measures for ongoing personnel development are recommended.

Vaccine Development.

This article considers ethical considerations surrounding pediatric vaccine development for pandemic preparedness, examines some historical cases of pediatric vaccines developed during past smallpox, influenza, and 2019 coronavirus disease pandemics, and discusses the current state of vaccine development for pandemic preparedness, including vaccines against smallpox/mpox, influenza, anthrax, and Ebola that are included in the US Strategic National Stockpile and vaccines being developed against priority pathogens identified by the World Health Organization.

Strengthening Pediatric and Public Health Collaboration to Protect Children's Health During a Pandemic.

This article examines lessons learned from previous pandemics, including the 2009 H1N1 influenza and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Pediatric providers have a unique and important role and strategies to improve collaboration and communication between public health and pediatric providers are essential during public health emergencies. A robust network of communication channels, effective public health messaging, and pediatric-focused disease related, and program outcome data are key to supporting a coordinated response to future pandemics. Critical issues include real-time communication with and engagement of pediatric providers as well as optimizing best evidence approaches for pediatric care while considering the distinct challenges facing children and their families.

Vaccine Confidence as Critical to Pandemic Preparedness and Response.

Vaccine confidence is a belief that vaccines work, are safe, and are part of a trustworthy medical system. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of the public's confidence in vaccines and the vaccine enterprise, limiting the public health impact of vaccination. In this review, we examine the critical nature of vaccine confidence to pandemic preparedness and response.

Transmission dynamics, complications and mitigation strategies of the current mpox outbreak: A comprehensive review with bibliometric study.

As the mankind counters the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), it simultaneously witnesses the emergence of mpox virus (MPXV) that signals at global spread and could potentially lead to another pandemic. Although MPXV has existed for more than 50 years now with most of the human cases being reported from the endemic West and Central African regions, the disease is recently being reported in non-endemic regions too that affect more than 50 countries. Controlling the spread of MPXV is important due to its potential danger of a global spread, causing severe morbidity and mortality. The article highlights the transmission dynamics, zoonosis potential, complication and mitigation strategies for MPXV infection, and concludes with suggested 'one health' approach for better management, control and prevention. Bibliometric analyses of the data extend the understanding and provide leads on the research trends, the global spread, and the need to revamp the critical research and healthcare interventions. Globally published mpox-related literature does not align well with endemic areas/regions of occurrence which should ideally have been the scenario. Such demographic and geographic gaps between the location of the research work and the endemic epicentres of the disease need to be bridged for greater and effective translation of the research outputs to pubic healthcare systems, it is suggested.

Exploring factors affecting the unsafe behavior of health care workers' in using respiratory masks during COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The use of respiratory masks has been one of the most important measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 among health care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, correct and safe use of breathing masks is vital. The purpose of this study was to exploring factors affecting the unsafe behavior of health care workers' in using respiratory masks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. METHODS: This study was carried out using the conventional qualitative content analysis. Participants were the number of 26 health care workers selected by purposive sampling method. Data collection was conducted through in-depth semi-structured interviews. Data analysis was done using the content analysis approach of Graneheim and Lundman. This study aligns with the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research (COREQ) checklist and was conducted between December 2021 and April 2022. RESULTS: The factors affecting the unsafe behavior of health care workers while using respiratory masks were divided into 3 main categories and 8 sub-categories. Categories included discomfort and pain (four sub-categories of headache and dizziness, skin discomfort, respiratory discomfort, feeling hot and thirsty), negative effect on performance (four sub-categories of effect on physical function, effect on cognitive function, system function vision, and hearing), and a negative effect on the mental state (two subcategories of anxiety and depression). CONCLUSION: The findings can help identify and analyze possible scenarios to reduce unsafe behaviors at the time of using breathing masks. The necessary therapeutic and preventive interventions regarding the complications of using masks, as well as planning to train personnel for the correct use of masks with minimal health effects are suggested.

"We might not have been in hospital, but we were frontline workers in the community": a qualitative study exploring unmet need and local community-based responses for marginalised groups in Greater Manchester during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The response to the COVID-19 pandemic saw a significant increase in demand for the voluntary, community, faith and social enterprise (VCFSE) sector to provide support to local communities. In Greater Manchester (GM), the VCFSE sector and informal networks provided health and wellbeing support in multiple ways, culminating in its crucial supportive role in the provision of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout across the GM city region. However, the support provided by the VCFSE sector during the pandemic remains under-recognised. The aims of the study were to: understand the views and experiences of marginalised communities in GM during the COVID-19 pandemic; explore how community engagement initiatives played a role during the pandemic and vaccine rollout; assess what can be learnt from the work of key stakeholders (community members, VCFSEs, health-system stakeholders) for future health research and service delivery. METHODS: The co-designed study utilised a participatory approach throughout and was co-produced with a Community Research Advisory Group (CRAG). Focus groups and semi-structured interviews were conducted remotely between September-November 2021, with 35 participants from local marginalised communities, health and care system stakeholders and VCFSE representatives. Thematic framework analysis was used to analyse the data. RESULTS: Local communities in GM were not supported sufficiently by mainstream services during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in increased pressure onto the VCFSE sector to respond to local communities' need. Community-based approaches were deemed crucial to the success of the vaccination drive and in providing support to local communities more generally during the pandemic, whereby such approaches were in a unique position to reach members of diverse communities to boost uptake of the vaccine. Despite this, the support delivered by the VCFSE sector remains under-recognised and under-valued by the health system and decision-makers. CONCLUSIONS: A number of challenges associated with collaborative working were experienced by the VSCE sector and health system in delivering the vaccination programme in partnership with the VCFSE sector. There is a need to create a broader, more inclusive health system which allows and promotes inter-sectoral working. Flexibility and adaptability in ongoing and future service delivery should be championed for greater cross-sector working.

Protocol implementation during the COVID-19 pandemic: experiences from a randomized trial of stress ulcer prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many intensive care units (ICUs) halted research to focus on COVID-19-specific studies. OBJECTIVE: To describe the conduct of an international randomized trial of stress ulcer prophylaxis (Re-Evaluating the Inhibition of Stress Erosions in the ICU [REVISE]) during the pandemic, addressing enrolment patterns, center engagement, informed consent processes, data collection, a COVID-specific substudy, patient transfers, and data monitoring. METHODS: REVISE is a randomized trial among mechanically ventilated patients, comparing pantoprazole 40 mg IV to placebo on the primary efficacy outcome of clinically important upper gastrointestinal bleeding and the primary safety outcome of 90-day mortality. We documented protocol implementation status from March 11th 2020-August 30th 2022. RESULTS: The Steering Committee did not change the scientific protocol. From the first enrolment on July 9th 2019 to March 10th 2020 (8 months preceding the pandemic), 267 patients were enrolled in 18 centers. From March 11th 2020-August 30th 2022 (30 months thereafter), 41 new centers joined; 59 were participating by August 30th 2022 which enrolled 2961 patients. During a total of 1235 enrolment-months in the pandemic phase, enrolment paused for 106 (8.6%) months in aggregate (median 3 months, interquartile range 2;6). Protocol implementation involved a shift from the a priori consent model pre-pandemic (188, 58.8%) to the consent to continue model (1615, 54.1%, p < 0.01). In one new center, an opt-out model was approved. The informed consent rate increased slightly (80.7% to 85.0%, p = 0.05). Telephone consent encounters increased (16.6% to 68.2%, p < 0.001). Surge capacity necessitated intra-institutional transfers; receiving centers continued protocol implementation whenever possible. We developed a nested COVID-19 substudy. The Methods Centers continued central statistical monitoring of trial metrics. Site monitoring was initially remote, then in-person when restrictions lifted. CONCLUSION: Protocol implementation adaptations during the pandemic included a shift in the consent model, a sustained high consent rate, and launch of a COVID-19 substudy. Recruitment increased as new centers joined, patient transfers were optimized, and monitoring methods were adapted.

Vaccination against COVID-19: the view of Brazilian federal judges.

The aim was to analyze the perception of Brazilian federal judges on the implications of COVID-19 vaccination. A study was carried out with Brazilian federal judges, who received a survey designed with multiple-choice questions on COVID-19 vaccination, covering topics such as its mandatory aspect, the application of coercive measures, hesitation to vaccinate, priority groups, the duties of Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (Anvisa, acronym in Portuguese), the role of the Judiciary branch, and immunity passports. A total of 254 out of 1,300 federal judges from all states responded to the survey. Most respondents have a Bachelor's degree or a specialization (59.1%) and have been judges for more than 10 years (63.8%). A great majority of the judges (87.7%) agree with vaccine mandates for adults and for children and adolescents (66.1%). Over 75% of judges believe that all levels of government can impose sanctions on those who refuse to get vaccinated. The judges trust vaccination 93% of the time, 56.1% reject anti-vaccination movements, and 75.2% believe that Anvisa duties should be respected. The Judiciary branch actions concerning the COVID-19 pandemic are approved by 62.6% of judges, and 88.2% support immunity passports. There is a direct connection among mandatory vaccination, trust in the vaccine, and the adoption of immunity passports. Most federal judges agree with vaccine mandates for children and adults, support the application of sanctions for vaccination refusal, disapprove of anti-vaccination movements, agree with Anvisa's duties, and support judicial intervention in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Asymmetries between national articulation and the autonomy of state governments in implementing health technologies to fight COVID-19 in Argentina]. / Asimetrías entre la coordinación nacional y la autonomía de los gobiernos estatales en la adopción de tecnologías sanitarias frente a la COVID-19 en Argentina.

Argentina, as other countries, showed several public policies related to the health technologies implemented to fight and treat the COVID-19 pandemic. This study sought to analyze how articulation vs. cooperation and autonomy vs. division of powers between entities occurred in Argentina, exploring asymmetries between several entities in implementing public policies related to health technologies during the pandemic and the influences of other actors. For this, a documentary research was carried out related to 2020-2021 (technical reports published by the World Health Organization, national agencies and scientific societies, laws, court decisions, press, and research and in-depth interviews with members of the Argentine Ministries of Health). The processes and results of decision-making in the Ministries of Health were analyzed, outlining the coverage and orientations of each technology and the political party in power in the province. This study found heterogeneous results and processes between Ministries and disputes within them. It also observed the poor adherence to official guidelines due to technical-political criteria (power relations, social, media, academic, judiciary, and legislative pressure). Some cases showed a strong tension between the government and its opposition over the discussion of technologies. Each province in Argentina has autonomously defined its policies on health technologies for COVID-19, and decision-making in public administration was disorderly, complex, and non-linear during the pandemic.

En pandemia, en Argentina y en otros países se observó variabilidad en las políticas públicas implementadas sobre tecnologías sanitarias para prevención y tratamiento de la COVID-19. El objetivo fue analizar cómo se procesaron en Argentina los movimientos de coordinación vs. cooperación, y de autonomía vs. reparto de autoridad entre entidades, explorando asimetrías entre diferentes entidades en la implementación de políticas públicas sobre tecnologías sanitarias en pandemia y las influencias de otros actores. Se realizó una revisión documental del período 2020-2021 (informes técnicos publicados por la Organización Mundial de la Salud, organismos nacionales y sociedades científicas, leyes, fallos judiciales, prensa, encuestas y entrevistas en profundidad a miembros de los Ministerios de Salud de Argentina). Se indagó sobre procesos y resultados de la toma de decisiones en los Ministerios de Salud, mapeando la cobertura y recomendación de cada tecnología y el partido político provincial gobernante. Hubo heterogeneidad en resultados y procesos entre los Ministerios, y disputas en el interior de los mismos. La adherencia a recomendaciones oficiales fue baja, influyendo distintos criterios técnico-políticos (relaciones de poder, presión social, de los medios, académicos, poder Judicial y Legislativo). En algunos casos se observó una fuerte tensión entre oficialismo y oposición al partido gobernante a partir de la discusión sobre tecnologías. Cada provincia argentina definió sus políticas sobre tecnologías sanitarias para COVID-19 con autonomía, y la toma de decisiones en la administración pública en pandemia fue desordenada, compleja y no lineal.

Na Argentina, assim como em outros países, houve uma variabilidade de políticas públicas relacionadas às tecnologias de saúde implementadas no combate e tratamento da COVID-19 durante a pandemia. Este estudo buscou analisar como ocorreram a articulação vs. cooperação, e a autonomia vs. divisão de poderes entre as entidades na Argentina, explorando assimetrias entre diferentes entidades na implementação de políticas públicas relacionadas a tecnologias de saúde na pandemia, bem como as influências de outros atores. Para tanto, realizou-se uma pesquisa documental para o período de 2020-2021 (relatórios técnicos publicados pela Organização Mundial da Saúde, agências nacionais e sociedades científicas, leis, decisões judiciais, imprensa, pesquisas e entrevistas em profundidade com membros dos Ministérios da Saúde da Argentina). Os processos e os resultados da tomada de decisão nos Ministérios da Saúde foram analisados, traçando a cobertura e orientações de cada tecnologia e o partido político no poder na província. Observou-se uma heterogeneidade nos resultados e processos entre os Ministérios, e disputas em seu interior. Houve uma baixa adesão às orientações oficiais, influenciada por diferentes critérios técnico-políticos (relações de poder, pressão social, midiática, acadêmica, do poder Judiciário e do Legislativo). Em alguns casos, observou-se uma forte tensão entre governo e oposição a partir da discussão das tecnologias. Cada província da Argentina definiu suas políticas sobre tecnologias de saúde para a COVID-19 de forma autônoma, e a tomada de decisões na administração pública foi desordenada, complexa e não linear durante a pandemia.

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 based on policy, vaccination, and Omicron data.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel SARS-COV-2 virus poses a great risk to the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, observing and forecasting several important indicators of the epidemic (like new confirmed cases, new cases in intensive care unit, and new deaths for each day) helped prepare the appropriate response (e.g., creating additional intensive care unit beds, and implementing strict interventions). Various predictive models and predictor variables have been used to forecast these indicators. However, the impact of prediction models and predictor variables on forecasting performance has not been systematically well analyzed. Here, we compared the forecasting performance using a linear mixed model in terms of prediction models (mathematical, statistical, and AI/machine learning models) and predictor variables (vaccination rate, stringency index, and Omicron variant rate) for seven selected countries with the highest vaccination rates. We decided on our best models based on the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and analyzed the significance of each predictor. Simple models were preferred. The selection of the best prediction models and the use of Omicron variant rate were considered essential in improving prediction accuracies. For the test data period before Omicron variant emergence, the selection of the best models was the most significant factor in improving prediction accuracy. For the test period after Omicron emergence, Omicron variant rate use was considered essential in deciding forecasting accuracy. For prediction models, ARIMA, lightGBM, and TSGLM generally performed well in both test periods. Linear mixed models with country as a random effect has proven that the choice of prediction models and the use of Omicron data was significant in determining forecasting accuracies for the highly vaccinated countries. Relatively simple models, fit with either prediction model or Omicron data, produced best results in enhancing forecasting accuracies with test data.