The effectiveness of intervention measures on MERS-CoV transmission by using the contact networks reconstructed from link prediction data.

Introduction: Mitigating the spread of infectious diseases is of paramount concern for societal safety, necessitating the development of effective intervention measures. Epidemic simulation is widely used to evaluate the efficacy of such measures, but realistic simulation environments are crucial for meaningful insights. Despite the common use of contact-tracing data to construct realistic networks, they have inherent limitations. This study explores reconstructing simulation networks using link prediction methods as an alternative approach. Methods: The primary objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of intervention measures on the reconstructed network, focusing on the 2015 MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea. Contact-tracing data were acquired, and simulation networks were reconstructed using the graph autoencoder (GAE)-based link prediction method. A scale-free (SF) network was employed for comparison purposes. Epidemic simulations were conducted to evaluate three intervention strategies: Mass Quarantine (MQ), Isolation, and Isolation combined with Acquaintance Quarantine (AQ + Isolation). Results: Simulation results showed that AQ + Isolation was the most effective intervention on the GAE network, resulting in consistent epidemic curves due to high clustering coefficients. Conversely, MQ and AQ + Isolation were highly effective on the SF network, attributed to its low clustering coefficient and intervention sensitivity. Isolation alone exhibited reduced effectiveness. These findings emphasize the significant impact of network structure on intervention outcomes and suggest a potential overestimation of effectiveness in SF networks. Additionally, they highlight the complementary use of link prediction methods. Discussion: This innovative methodology provides inspiration for enhancing simulation environments in future endeavors. It also offers valuable insights for informing public health decision-making processes, emphasizing the importance of realistic simulation environments and the potential of link prediction methods.

The impact of COVID-19 lockdown on physical activity and sedentary behaviour in secondary school teachers: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mid-March 2020, Belgium went in lockdown to combat the COVID-19-pandemic. Having to provide school-based day care and adapt to online teaching, while all social, cultural and sports events and activities were cancelled, secondary school teachers' physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) may have been affected considerably. This study investigates the impact of the first Belgian lockdown on PA and SB in Flemish secondary school teachers. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted throughout the 2019-2020 school year. PA and SB measured in March/April 2020 were compared with a pre-lockdown measurement in January/February 2020. Other pre-lockdown measurements (September/October 2019 and November/December 2019) and one other during-lockdown measurement (May/June 2020) allowed us to control for confounding. Validated questionnaires were used to assess participants' PA and SB. Generalized linear mixed models were applied in R. RESULTS: Among 624 participants (77·2% females, 43·3 ± 10·3 years), increases were observed for total PA (+ 108 min/week; p = 0·047), moderate PA (+ 217 min/week; p = 0·001), domestic and garden PA (+ 308 min/week; p < 0·0001) and leisure-time PA (+ 131 min/week; p < 0·0001), whereas work-related PA (-289 min/week; p < 0·0001) and active transportation (-38 min/week; p =0·005) decreased. No differences were observed for walking (p = 1·0) and vigorous PA (p = 0·570). Increases were found for total SB (+ 972 min/week; p < 0·0001), work-related SB (+ 662 min/week; p < 0·0001) and leisure-time SB (+ 592 min/week; p = 0·0004), whereas transport-related SB (-290 min/week; p < 0·0001) decreased. CONCLUSION: During the lockdown, we found in our sample that Flemish secondary school teachers showed an increase in SB that was 9 times as high as their PA increase. As a government, education network or school, it is crucial to sensitize, promote, and facilitate sufficient MVPA and/or walking, but likewise to discourage SB during pandemic-induced lockdowns.

A Metric of Societal Burden Based on Virus Succession to Determine Economic Losses and Health Benefits of China's Lockdown Policies: Model Development and Validation.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the global health system and economic structure. Although the implementation of lockdown measures achieved notable success in curbing the spread of the pandemic, it concurrently incurred substantial socioeconomic costs. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to delineate an equilibrium between the economic losses and health benefits of lockdown measures, with the aim of identifying the optimal boundary conditions for implementing these measures at various pandemic phases. METHODS: This study used a model to estimate the half-lives of the observed case fatality rates of different strains. It was based on global infection and death data collected by the World Health Organization and strain sequence time series data provided by Nextstrain. The connection between the health benefits and economic losses brought by lockdown measures was established through the calculation of disability-adjusted life years. Taking China's city lockdowns as an example, this study determined the cost-benefit boundary of various lockdown measures during the evolution of COVID-19. RESULTS: The study reveals a direct proportionality between economic losses due to lockdowns and the observed case fatality rates of virus strains, a relationship that holds true irrespective of population size or per capita economic output. As SARS-CoV-2 strains evolve and population immunity shifts, there has been a notable decrease in the observed case fatality rate over time, exhibiting a half-life of roughly 8 months. This decline in fatality rates may offset the health benefits of maintaining unchanged lockdown measures, given that the resultant economic losses might exceed the health benefits. CONCLUSIONS: The initial enforcement of lockdown in Wuhan led to significant health benefits. However, with the decline in the observed case fatality rate of the virus strains, the economic losses increasingly outweighed the health benefits. Consequently, it is essential to consistently refine and enhance lockdown strategies in accordance with the evolving fatality and infection rates of different virus strains, thereby optimizing outcomes in anticipation of future pandemics.

The "supercompensation" effect of children's lockdown during COVID-19: based on the analysis of changes in physical activity, sleep, and psychology.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the "supercompensation" effect of preschoolers during the coronavirus disease 2019 lockdown by comparing the changes in physical activity (PA), psychological, and sleep indicators before and after the lockdown. METHODS: A total of 127 children (aged 3-6 years) were recruited. Before and after the lockdown, the children's PA levels were measured using the ActiGraph GT3X+, and their psychological and sleep indicators were measured using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and Child Sleep Habit Questionnaire (CSHQ), respectively. RESULTS: Regarding PA, the children's total physical activity, low-intensity physical activity, and medium-intensity physical activity (MVPA) were higher after the lockdown than before the lockdown, with significant differences in MVPA (p < 0.05). Regarding psychology, the children's SDQ and multidimensional scores were better after the lockdown than before the lockdown, with a significant difference in SDQ scores (p < 0.05). Regarding sleep, the children's CSHQ scores were better after the lockdown than before the lockdown, with a highly significant difference in CSHQ scores (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: After lockdown, children's PA, psychological, and sleep effects were "supercompensated." In particular, the PA of preschoolers before, during, and after the lockdown may show a "baseline-inhibition-supercompensation" process.

Factors predicting self-care behavior of cardiovascular patients during the COVID-19 epidemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 virus has had wide-ranging effects on all healthcare systems and a direct impact on all areas of human life in all countries around the world. Therefore, it is necessary to take preventive actions to reduce the prevalence and severity of the complications associated with this disease. The purpose of this study was to explain the dimensions of adopting general self-care behaviors (mask-wearing, social distancing, hand hygiene, and home quarantine) for preventing COVID-19 based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) in cardiovascular patients. METHODS: This was a descriptive-analytical study conducted with the participation of 420 patients referring to health and treatment centers of Ahvaz, southwest of Iran, in 2022. Sampling was done using a non-random (convenience) method. The data collection tool was a questionnaire containing items addressing demographic characteristics, questions related to the TPB, and questions dealing with the adoption of everyday self-care behaviors against contracting COVID-19. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical methods (prevalence, mean, standard deviation, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and linear regression) in SPSS version 25. RESULTS: The results of this study showed that the rate of adoption of self-care behaviors against COVID-19 among cardiovascular patients was moderate. The results also showed that among the constructs of the TPB, Perceived behavioral control, Subjective norms, and Perceived behavioral intention were the most important predictors of adopting self-care behaviors among cardiovascular patients with a change variance of 46%. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study have implications for health and treatment policy makers as well as planners of educational and behavioral interventions aimed at promoting the adoption of self-care behaviors against COVID-19. In this respect, managing and institutionalizing desirable behaviors among cardiovascular patients could be beneficial from economic, social, and health-related aspects.

New framework to assess tracing and testing based on South Korea's response to COVID-19.

South Korea's remarkable success in controlling the spread of COVID-19 during the pre-Omicron period was based on extensive contact tracing and large-scale testing. Here we suggest a general criterion for tracing and testing based on South Korea's experience, and propose a new framework to assess tracing and testing. We reviewed papers on South Korea's response to COVID-19 to capture its concept of tracing and testing. South Korea expanded its testing capabilities to enable group tracing combined with preemptive testing, and to conduct open testing. According to our proposed model, COVID-19 cases are classified into 4 types: confirmed in quarantine, source known, source unknown, and unidentified. The proportion of the first two case types among confirmed cases is defined as "traced proportion", and used as the indicator of tracing and testing effectiveness. In conclusion, South Korea successfully suppressed COVID-19 transmission by maintaining a high traced proportion (> 60%) using group tracing in conjunction with preemptive testing as a complementary strategy to traditional contact tracing.

Controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in the correctional setting: A mathematical modelling study.

Correctional centres (termed here 'prisons') are at high risk of COVID-19 and have featured major outbreaks worldwide. Inevitable close contacts, frequent inmate movements, and a disproportionate burden of co-morbidities mean these environments need to be prioritised in any public health response to respiratory pathogens such as COVID-19. We developed an individual-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model for the prison system in New South Wales, Australia - incorporating all 33 correctional centres, 13,458 inmates, 578 healthcare and 6,909 custodial staff. Potential COVID-19 disease outbreaks were assessed under various mitigation strategies, including quarantine on entry, isolation of cases, rapid antigen testing of staff, as well as immunisation.Without control measures, the model projected a peak of 472 new infections daily by day 35 across the prison system, with all inmates infected by day 120. The most effective individual mitigation strategies were high immunisation coverage and prompt lockdown of centres with infected inmates which reduced outbreak size by 62-73%. Other than immunisation, the combination of quarantine of inmates at entry, isolation of proven or suspected cases, and widespread use of personal protective equipment by staff and inmates was the most effective strategy. High immunisation coverage mitigates the spread of COVID-19 within and between correctional settings but is insufficient alone. Maintaining quarantine and isolation, along with high immunisation levels, will allow correctional systems to function with a low risk of outbreaks. These results have informed public health policy for respiratory pathogens in Australian correctional systems.

Provision of Telepsychological Care Via Email during COVID-19 Confinement: An Exploratory Study.

Within teletherapy, email interventions have been studied scarcely. For this reason, this exploratory study aims to characterize the assistance provided by email in a university telepsychology service and to compare the data with the assistance provided by telephone in the same service and period. For this purpose, the records of 81 users assisted via email during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in Spain were analyzed. The data were compared with those of the 338 users assisted by telephone in the same period. Despite its many limitations, results indicate high satisfaction with the email modality. Users express that they prefer a preference for using email when they do not feel safe in other ways. We found a lot of variation between the number of emails exchanged and the days that each case was active. Additionally, differences were found with telephone users in aspects such as age (email users being younger) and in a depression screening (email users scoring more positively). This study concludes on the high potential of this channel for the application of certain techniques (e.g., psychoeducation) or for people with certain characteristics.

Large environmental changes reduce valence-dependent belief updating.

When updating beliefs, humans tend to integrate more desirable information than undesirable information. In stable environments (low uncertainty and high predictability), this asymmetry favors motivation towards action and perceived self-efficacy. However, in changing environments (high uncertainty and low predictability), this process can lead to risk underestimation and increase unwanted costs. Here, we examine how people (n = 388) integrate threatening information during an abrupt environmental change (mandatory quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic). Given that anxiety levels are associated with the magnitude of the updating belief asymmetry; we explore its relationship during this particular context. We report a significant reduction in asymmetrical belief updating during a large environmental change as individuals integrated desirable and undesirable information to the same extent. Moreover, this result was supported by computational modeling of the belief update task. However, we found that the reduction in asymmetrical belief updating was not homogeneous among people with different levels of Trait-anxiety. Individuals with higher levels of Trait-anxiety maintained a valence-dependent updating, as it occurs in stable environments. On the other hand, updating behavior was not associated with acute anxiety (State-Anxiety), health concerns (Health-Anxiety), or having positive expectations (Trait-Optimism). These results suggest that highly uncertain environments can generate adaptive changes in information integration. At the same time, it reveals the vulnerabilities of individuals with higher levels of anxiety to adapt the way they learn.

Age at death during the Covid-19 lockdown in French metropolitan regions: a non parametric quantile regression approach.

BACKGROUND: Lockdowns have been implemented to limit the number of hospitalisations and deaths during the first wave of 2019 coronavirus disease. These measures may have affected differently death characteristics, such age and sex. France was one of the hardest hit countries in Europe with a decreasing east-west gradient in excess mortality. This study aimed at describing the evolution of age at death quantiles during the lockdown in spring 2020 (17 March-11 May 2020) in the French metropolitan regions focusing on 3 representatives of the epidemic variations in the country: Bretagne, Ile-de-France (IDF) and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (BFC). METHODS: Data were extracted from the French public mortality database from 1 January 2011 to 31 August 2020. The age distribution of mortality observed during the lockdown period (based on each decile, plus quantiles 1, 5, 95 and 99) was compared with the expected one using Bayesian non-parametric quantile regression. RESULTS: During the lockdown, 5457, 5917 and 22 346 deaths were reported in Bretagne, BFC and IDF, respectively. An excess mortality from + 3% in Bretagne to + 102% in IDF was observed during lockdown compared to the 3 previous years. Lockdown led to an important increase in the first quantiles of age at death, irrespective of the region, while the increase was more gradual for older age groups. It corresponded to fewer young people, mainly males, dying during the lockdown, with an increase in the age at death in the first quantile of about 7 years across regions. In females, a less significant shift in the first quantiles and a greater heterogeneity between regions were shown. A greater shift was observed in eastern region and IDF, which may also represent excess mortality among the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: This study focused on the innovative outcome of the age distribution at death. It shows the first quantiles of age at death increased differentially according to sex during the lockdown period, overall shift seems to depend on prior epidemic intensity before lockdown and complements studies on excess mortality during lockdowns.

Association between stringency of lockdown measures and emergency department visits during the COVID-19 pandemic: A Dutch multicentre study.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 outbreak disrupted regular health care, including the Emergency Department (ED), and resulted in insufficient ICU capacity. Lockdown measures were taken to prevent disease spread and hospital overcrowding. Little is known about the relationship of stringency of lockdown measures on ED utilization. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the frequency and characteristics of ED visits during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 to 2019, and their relation to stringency of lockdown measures. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective multicentre study among five Dutch hospitals was performed. The primary outcome was the absolute number of ED visits (year 2018 and 2019 compared to 2020). Secondary outcomes were age, sex, triage category, way of transportation, referral, disposition, and treating medical specialty. The relation between stringency of lockdown measures, measured with the Oxford Stringency Index (OSI) and number and characteristics of ED visits was analysed. RESULTS: The total number of ED visits in the five hospitals in 2019 was 165,894, whereas the total number of visits in 2020 was 135,762, which was a decrease of 18.2% (range per hospital: 10.5%-30.7%). The reduction in ED visits was greater during periods of high stringency lockdown measures, as indicated by OSI. CONCLUSION: The number of ED visits in the Netherlands has significantly dropped during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a clear association between decreasing ED visits and increasing lockdown measures. The OSI could be used as an indicator in the management of ED visits during a future pandemic.

Changes in admission rates to an Aotearoa New Zealand hospital general medical service during COVID-19 lockdowns.

AIM: To better understand the reasons for reduced hospital admissions to a hospital general medicine service during COVID-19 lockdowns. METHODS: A statistical model for admission rates to the General Medicine Service at Wellington Hospital, Aotearoa New Zealand, since 2015 was constructed. This model was used to estimate changes in admission rates for transmissible and non-transmissible diagnoses during and following COVID-19 lockdowns for total admissions and various sub-groups. RESULTS: For the 2020 lockdown (n=734 admissions), the overall rate ratio of admissions was 0.71 compared to the pre-lockdown rate. Non-transmissible diagnoses, which constitute 87% of admissions, had an admission rate ratio of 0.77. Transmissible diagnoses, constituting 13% of admissions, had an admission rate ratio of 0.44. Reductions in admissions did not exacerbate existing ethnic disparities in access to health services. The lag in recovery of admission rates was more pronounced for transmissible than non-transmissible diagnoses. The 2021 lockdown (n=105 admissions) followed this pattern, but was of shorter duration with small numbers, and therefore measures were frequently not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The biggest relative reduction in hospital admission was due to a reduction in transmissible illness admissions, likely due to COVID-related public health measures. However, the biggest reduction in absolute terms was in non-transmissible illnesses, where hospital avoidance may be associated with increased morbidity or mortality.

The risk and protective factors on the mental health of healthcare workers during the lockdown period due to covid-19 pandemic.

This study aimed to analyze the impact of the lockdown period due to COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health status of healthcare workers and identify the related risk factors of psychosomatic distress. We conducted an online questionnaire survey to investigate the general demographic characteristics, perceived stress level, adult attachment style (AAS), family cohesion and adaptability, social support, sleep state, emotional state, and physical health of healthcare workers during the lockdown period due to the pandemic in 2022. We compared the mental health status between doctors and nurses, and further analyzed the factors influencing sleep, emotions, physical symptoms, and severe psychosomatic distress separately. For factors that showed statistical significance in the univariate analysis, forward stepwise regression was used for logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for the corresponding issues. A total of 622 healthcare workers participated in the survey. Among the participants, 121 (19.5%) reported sleep problems, 209 (33.6%) had negative emotional states, and 147 (23.6%) reported physical health problems. There were 48 (7.7%) healthcare workers with severe psychosomatic distress. Compared to the group of nurses, the group of doctors exhibit a higher prevalence of emotional issues, physical health problems and psychosomatic distress. Perceived stress was identified as a risk factor for sleep disturbance, while living with others during quarantine and family adaptability were identified as protective factors. Higher educational background and perceived stress were identified as risk factors for negative emotion, while subjective support was identified as a protective factor. Perceived stress and coming from a rural area were also identified as risk factors for physical health. Overall, for the comparison between the no psychosomatic distress and severe psychosomatic distress groups, perceived stress was identified as a risk factor for severe psychosomatic distress, while subjective support was identified as a protective factor. Healthcare workers' potential mental and physical health problems are related to their educational background, family cohesion and adaptability, perceived stress and social support. This makes it clearer on how to deal with and prevent adverse consequences when facing stressful situations.

Caregiver and Child Mental Health During 3 Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns (stay-at-home orders) had significant mental health consequences in 2020 to 2021 for caregivers and children. Little is known about "postlockdown" periods in 2022 to 2023. We investigated the mental health experiences of Australian families throughout the 3 years of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2023), by demographic characteristics and lockdown length. METHODS: A total N = 12 408 caregivers (N = 20 339 children, aged 0-17 years) completed Australia's only representative, repeated, cross-sectional, National Child Health Poll across 6 waves (June 2020-April 2023). Caregivers reported mental health for themselves (Kessler-6, poor versus not) and each child (self-rated mental health, poor/fair versus good/very good/excellent), and perceived impacts of the pandemic on own/child mental health (negative versus none/positive). Binary logistic models were fitted to predict marginal probabilities of each mental health measure by state/territory group (proxy for lockdown length), over time, adjusted for potential demographic confounders. RESULTS: Poor caregiver Kessler-6 was similar between genders but more common for sole caregivers, and those with a home language other than English and lower education. Poor/fair child self-rated mental health was similar between genders and increased with child age. Perceived negative impacts were more common for females and socially advantaged caregivers. Overall, negative mental health experiences increased with lockdown length, peaking with the height of lockdown in July 2021, before declining. CONCLUSIONS: Negative mental health experiences of Australian caregivers and children decreased during postlockdown periods of 2022-2023; however, social gradients persisted. These data can inform more precise mental health policies that enable better use of limited mental health infrastructure.

The delivery of creative socially prescribed activities for people with serious mental health needs during lockdown: Learning about remote, digital and hybrid delivery.

BACKGROUND: Social prescribing interventions connect mental health service users to community resources, to support physical and mental wellbeing and promote recovery. COVID-19 restrictions impacted the delivery of socially prescribed activities, preventing face to face contact for long periods. AIMS: The aim of this study was to understand how Voluntary Community and Social Enterprise (VCSE) organisations working with a local NHS mental health Trust responded to the challenges of social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic. This understanding will be used to make recommendations for future practice, post-lockdown. METHODS: Using a convergent mixed methods design, we surveyed VCSE providers of socially prescribed activities intended to be accessible and appropriate for people with severe mental health needs. Follow-up interviews explored further how they adapted during the first year of the pandemic, the challenges they faced, and how they sought to overcome them. The survey and interview data were analysed separately and then compared to identify convergent and divergent findings. RESULTS: Twenty VCSE representatives completed the survey which provided a snapshot of changes in levels of connection and numbers reached during lockdown. Of 20 survey respondents, 11 participated in follow-up interviews. Interviews revealed that lockdown necessitated rapid change and responsive adaptation; activities were limited by resource, funding, safeguarding and government restrictions; no single format suited all group members; connection was key; and impact was difficult to gauge. CONCLUSIONS: VCSE organisations commissioned to deliver creative socially prescribed activities during the pandemic rapidly adapted their offer to comply with government restrictions. Responsive changes were made, and new knowledge and skills were gained. Drawing on experiences during lockdown, VCSE organisations should develop bespoke knowledge, skills and practices to engage service users in future hybrid delivery of arts, sports, cultural and creative community activities, and to ensure that digital activities offer an equivalent degree of connection to face-to-face ones. Additionally, more effective methods of gaining feedback about patient experience of hybrid delivery is needed.

Knowledge and attitude towards home quarantine instructions and associations with history of Covid-19 infection in Malaysia.

INTRODUCTION: Although COVID-19 has entered the endemic phase, individuals infected with COVID-19 are required to adhere to home quarantine measures. By exploring the public's knowledge and attitude towards recommended home quarantine measures, their readiness in containing potential COVID-19 outbreak can be determined. This study aimed to assess the public knowledge and attitude towards home quarantine instructions and their association with history of COVID-19 infections. METHODS: This was a web-based cross-sectional study conducted among the public in Malaysia between August to October 2022. All Malaysian adults over 18 years of age were included. Knowledge on home quarantine instructions and COVID-19 warning signs were measured using "True," "False," or "I'm not sure", while attitude towards home quarantine instructions was measured using a five-point Likert Scale. The questionnaire was initially constructed in English and then translated into the national language, Bahasa Malaysia. Face and content validation were performed. The internal consistency of the questionnaire was found to be satisfactory. RESULTS: 1,036 respondents were analyzed, comprised mostly of females (743, 71.6%) with a history of COVID-19 (673, 64.9%). In the knowledge domain, more than 80% of the respondents answered 9 out of 11 home quarantine instructions statements correctly. 457 (44.1%) were unaware or unsure about the minimum distance of the infected individual's bed from the rest of the occupants in a shared bedroom. The respondents reported relatively weaker knowledge in identifying uncommon warning signs of COVID-19 deterioration, including anuria (162, 44.5%), ingestion problems (191, 52.5%), and immobility (195, 53.6%). In the attitude domain, more than 90% of respondents answered correctly in 8 out of 9 questions. Respondents with a previous history of COVID-19 infections had better knowledge than COVID-19 infection-naïve individuals towards both home quarantine instructions and COVID-19 warning signs. CONCLUSION: Most respondents had good knowledge and attitude towards home quarantine instructions, with those previously infected with COVID-19 showing greater awareness of uncommon warning signs. However, there was a notable lack of awareness regarding physical distancing within shared rooms, appropriate disinfectant use and mobility limitation within the household. This study highlights the knowledge gaps to be improved in future educational campaigns.

Perceptions and compliance with COVID-19 preventive measures in Southern and Central regions of Mozambique: A quantitative in-person household survey in the districts of Manhiça and Quelimane.

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted countries to swiftly implement rigorous preventive measures on a population-wide scale worldwide. However, in low-income countries like Mozambique this was difficult, coupled with a generalised lack of knowledge on how the population understood and complied with these measures. This study assessed community perceptions and implementation of anti-COVID-19 measures recommended by Mozambican authorities in Manhiça and Quelimane districts, including confinement, social distancing, frequent handwashing, mask wearing, and quarantine as the key practices to evaluate. We conducted a cross-sectional quantitative survey in October 2020 and February 2021, interviewing heads of households, face-to-face. The data collected included self-evaluation of compliance and existence of handwashing facilities and face-masks in the households, aided by observations. We present descriptive statistics on perceptions and compliance at individual and household levels. Out of the 770 participants, nearly all (98.7%) were aware of Coronavirus disease, including the term COVID-19 (89.2%). Knowledge varied between districts, with Manhiça participants showing higher levels of sufficient ability to define the disease. The symptoms most mentioned were dry cough (17.8%), fever (15.7%), flu-like symptoms (14.2%), breathing difficulties (13.6%), and headache (13.1%). Participants recognized various transmission modes, including touching infected objects and inhaling infected air. Preventive measures like handwashing with soap or sanitizing hands with alcohol, wearing masks, and social distancing were acknowledged, but the understanding varied. Compliance with these measures was generally low, with fewer than half of respondents reporting adherence to them. Only 30.4% of households had handwashing facilities (of which only 41.0% had water), and masks were often limited to one per person aged 6 years or more. Community members in Manhica and Quelimane were aware of COVID-19 but had limited understanding of what the preventive measures meant, and had lower levels of compliance. Understanding and addressing the factors affecting the proper implementation of these measures is crucial for improving community adherence in preventing infectious diseases with epidemic potential.

Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis.

Background: The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), such as lockdowns, social distancing and school closures, against the COVID-19 epidemic is debated, particularly for the possible negative effects on vulnerable populations, including children and adolescents. This study therefore aimed to quantify the impact of NPIs on the trend of pediatric hospitalizations during 2 years of pandemic compared to the previous 3 years, also considering two pandemic phases according to the type of adopted NPIs. Methods: This is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study conducted in 12 hospitals of the Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding the beginning of NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (up to September 2020) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase with less stringent restrictions. School closure was chosen as delimitation as it particularly concerns young people. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was applied to calculate Hospitalization Rate Ratios (HRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest variation. ITS allows the estimation of changes attributable to an intervention, both in terms of immediate (level change) and sustained (slope change) effects, while accounting for pre-intervention secular trends. Results: Overall, in the 60 months of the study there were 84,368 cases. Compared to the pre-pandemic years, statistically significant 35 and 19% decreases in hospitalizations were observed during school closure and in the following mitigation measures phase, respectively. The greatest reduction was recorded for "Respiratory Diseases," whereas the "Mental Disorders" category exhibited a significant increase during mitigation measures. ITS analysis confirms a high reduction of level change during school closure for Respiratory Diseases (HRR 0.19, 95%CI 0.08-0.47) and a similar but smaller significant reduction when mitigation measures were enacted. Level change for Mental Disorders significantly decreased during school closure (HRR 0.50, 95%CI 0.30-0.82) but increased during mitigation measures by 28% (HRR 1.28, 95%CI 0.98-1.69). Conclusion: Our findings provide information on the impact of COVID-19 NPIs which may inform public health policies in future health crises, plan effective control and preventative interventions and target resources where needed.

Analysis of a fractional-order model for dengue transmission dynamics with quarantine and vaccination measures.

A comprehensive mathematical model is proposed to study two strains of dengue virus with saturated incidence rates and quarantine measures. Imperfect dengue vaccination is also assumed in the model. Existence, uniqueness and stability of the proposed model are proved using the results from fixed point and degree theory. Additionally, well constructed Lyapunov function candidates are also applied to prove the global stability of infection-free equilibria. It is also demonstrated that the model is generalized Ulam-Hyers stable under some appropriate conditions. The model is fitted to the real data of dengue epidemic taken from the city of Espirito Santo in Brazil. For the approximate solution of the model, a non-standard finite difference(NSFD) approach is applied. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out to show the influence of different parameters involved in the model. The behaviour of the NSFD is also assessed under different denominator functions and it is observed that the choice of the denominator function could influence the solution trajectories. Different scenario analysis are also assessed when the reproduction number is below or above one. Furthermore, simulations are also presented to assess the epidemiological impact of dengue vaccination and quarantine measures for infected individuals.