Assessing the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity, with an application to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile.

This paper develops a methodology for the assessment of the short-run effects of lockdown policies on economic activity. The methodology combines labor market data with simulation of an agent-based model. We apply our methodology to the Santiago Metropolitan Region, Chile. We recover the model parameters from observed data, taking into account the recurring policy adjustments that characterized the study window. The model is used to build counterfactual scenarios. We estimate an 8 percent output loss in the first 5 months of the pandemic from the policy that was put in place, achieving a 56 percent reduction in the total number of infections. During this period, with an output loss to 10.5 percent of GDP, the infection rate would have decreased 92 percent, significantly delaying the spread of COVID and spike in infections. Our methodology applied to real data provided results that could be valuable in guiding policies in other lockdown situations in times of disaster, pandemics or social upheaval.

The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: Evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns.

BACKGROUND: Governments worldwide have implemented large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing or school closures, to prevent and control the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic. These strategies, implemented with varying stringency, have imposed substantial social and economic costs to society. As some countries begin to reopen and ease mobility restrictions, lockdowns in smaller geographic areas are increasingly considered an attractive policy intervention to mitigate societal costs while controlling epidemic growth. Nevertheless, there is a lack of empirical evidence to support these decisions. METHODS: Drawing from a rich data set of localized lockdowns in Chile, we used econometric methods to measure the reduction in local economic activity from lockdowns when applied to smaller or larger geographical areas. We measured economic activity by tax collection at the municipality-level. RESULTS: Our results show that lockdowns were associated with a 10%-15% drop in local economic activity, which is twice the reduction in local economic activity suffered by municipalities that were not under lockdown. A three-to-four-month lockdown had a similar effect on economic activity than a year of the 2009 great recession. We found costs are proportional to the population under lockdown, without differences when lockdowns were measured at the municipality or city-wide levels. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that localized lockdowns have a large effect on local economic activity, but these effects are proportional to the population under lockdown. Our results suggest that epidemiological criteria should guide decisions about the optimal size of lockdown areas since the proportional impact of lockdowns on the economy seems to be unchanged by scale.

The short-term impacts of coronavirus quarantine in São Paulo: The health-economy trade-offs.

We analyze the trade-offs between health and the economy during the period of social distancing in São Paulo, the state hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We use longitudinal data with municipal-level information and check the robustness of our estimates to several sources of bias, including spatial dependence, reverse causality, and time-variant omitted variables. We use exogenous climate shocks as instruments for social distancing since people are more likely to stay home in wetter and colder periods. Our findings suggest that the health benefits of social distancing differ by levels of municipal development and may have vanished if the COVID-19 spread was not controlled in neighboring municipalities. In turn, we did not find evidence that municipalities with tougher social distancing performed worse economically. Our results also highlight that estimates that do not account for endogeneity may largely underestimate the benefits of social distancing on reducing the spread of COVID-19.

[Essay on Pandementia: when the characters and microbes of science fiction jump off the screen and invade the planet]. / Ensayo sobre la pandemencia: cuando los personajes y microbios de la ciencia ficción salen de la película.

This essay intends to carry out an ethical and philosophical reflection on the effects of the emergency contingencies of the COVID-19 pandemic. With a focus on Brazil, it seeks to understand, critique, and attribute meaning to references to the pandemic, in particularly dramatic moments brought about by the synergy produced between the serious disease affecting the country and the world and a government that stands out for its remarkable unwillingness and inability to deal with this calamity. This text was written during the Brazilian "quarantine," which lasted from mid-March to late April, 2020. During this period, we were bombarded by facts that never ceased to haunt us, and lived each day under the terrible dominion of the pandemic. Therefore, this text was written in the midst of a social context marked by control efforts, with great attention directed at the health of those affected, despite the complex political framework and serious economic difficulties facing the country.

Este ensayo crítico acerca de las declaraciones sobre la técnica y la vida en el planeta COVID-19 propone una reflexión ético-filosófica de los efectos de la pandemia. Trata de entender, atribuir significados y criticar las referencias a la pandemia, especialmente en Brasil, en momentos especialmente dramáticos, debido a la sinergia entre la grave enfermedad que afecta al país y al planeta, y un gobierno que se destaca por su gigantesca incapacidad para hacer frente a la calamidad. Este texto fue escrito en el periodo de "cuarentena" brasileña, desde mediados de marzo hasta fines de abril de 2020. Es un momento en el que los hechos nos golpean y no dejan de atormentarnos, y se vive a diario bajo el terrible dominio de esta pandemia. Así, este texto se caracteriza por estar elaborado en medio de un contexto social marcado por los esfuerzos de control y atención de la salud de los afectados, a pesar del complejo marco político actual y de las profundas dificultades económicas del país.

COVID-19 induced economic loss and ensuring food security for vulnerable groups: Policy implications from Bangladesh.

At present nearly half of the world's population is under some form of government restriction to curb the spread of COVID-19, an extremely contagious disease. In Bangladesh, in the wake of five deaths and 48 infections from COVID-19, between March 24 and May 30, 2020, the government imposed a nationwide lockdown. While this lockdown restricted the spread of COVID-19, in the absence of effective support, it can generate severe food and nutrition insecurity for daily wage-based workers. Of the 61 million employed labor force in Bangladesh, nearly 35% of them are paid on a daily basis. This study examines the food security and welfare impacts of the COVID-19 induced lockdown on daily wage workers both in the farm and nonfarm sectors in Bangladesh. Using information from more than 50,000 respondents complied with the 2016-17 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) in Bangladesh, this study estimates daily wage rates as Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 272.2 in the farm sector and BDT 361.5 in the nonfarm sector. Using the estimated daily wage earnings, this study estimates that a one-day complete lockdown generates a US$64.2 million equivalent economic loss only considering the wage loss of the daily wage workers. After estimating the daily per capita food expenditure separately for farm and nonfarm households, this study estimates a minimum compensation package for the daily wage-based farm and nonfarm households around the US $ 1 per day per household to ensure minimum food security for the daily wage-based worker households.

Ensayo sobre la pandemencia: cuando los personajes y microbios de la ciencia ficción salen de la película / Essay on Pandementia: when the characters and microbes of science fiction jump off the screen and invade the planet

RESUMEN Este ensayo crítico acerca de las declaraciones sobre la técnica y la vida en el planeta COVID-19 propone una reflexión ético-filosófica de los efectos de la pandemia. Trata de entender, atribuir significados y criticar las referencias a la pandemia, especialmente en Brasil, en momentos especialmente dramáticos, debido a la sinergia entre la grave enfermedad que afecta al país y al planeta, y un gobierno que se destaca por su gigantesca incapacidad para hacer frente a la calamidad. Este texto fue escrito en el periodo de "cuarentena" brasileña, desde mediados de marzo hasta fines de abril de 2020. Es un momento en el que los hechos nos golpean y no dejan de atormentarnos, y se vive a diario bajo el terrible dominio de esta pandemia. Así, este texto se caracteriza por estar elaborado en medio de un contexto social marcado por los esfuerzos de control y atención de la salud de los afectados, a pesar del complejo marco político actual y de las profundas dificultades económicas del país.

ABSTRACT This essay intends to carry out an ethical and philosophical reflection on the effects of the emergency contingencies of the COVID-19 pandemic. With a focus on Brazil, it seeks to understand, critique, and attribute meaning to references to the pandemic, in particularly dramatic moments brought about by the synergy produced between the serious disease affecting the country and the world and a government that stands out for its remarkable unwillingness and inability to deal with this calamity. This text was written during the Brazilian "quarantine," which lasted from mid-March to late April, 2020. During this period, we were bombarded by facts that never ceased to haunt us, and lived each day under the terrible dominion of the pandemic. Therefore, this text was written in the midst of a social context marked by control efforts, with great attention directed at the health of those affected, despite the complex political framework and serious economic difficulties facing the country.