How the risk principle reduces recidivism: The impact of legislative revisions on the release and reoffense rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses.

OBJECTIVE: The present study examined the relationship between legislative revisions regarding sexual offenses and the release decisions and recidivism rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses. In 2008, the Austrian government passed a package of revised criminal laws aiming to decrease incarceration rates. At the same time, connecting recidivism risk to professional risk management efforts was expected to increase public safety. HYPOTHESES: Given the strong empirical background of the implemented risk assessment and management efforts, we expected both an increase in the percentage of conditional release decisions and a decrease in recidivism rates. METHOD: We analyzed the data of 2,610 male individuals convicted of sexual offenses who were released from the Austrian Prison System between 2001 and 2016 within a natural experiment using a prospective-longitudinal quasi-experimental study design. RESULTS: The results indicated that the percentage of conditional releases of individuals convicted of sexual offenses increased substantially since 2008. Additionally, within the same period, the recidivism rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses decreased further. CONCLUSION: Even if both developmental processes are only correlational and a causal relationship cannot be examined, the present results supported the empirical evidence of the risk principle-at least if it is based on scientifically sound risk assessment and management methods. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

The impact of testosterone-lowering medication on recidivism in individuals convicted of sexual offenses.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of individuals who have committed sexual offences with Testosterone-Lowering Medication (TLM) is a comparatively intrusive kind of intervention, which regularly takes place in coercive contexts. Thus, the question of efficacy, but also the question of who should be treated, when and for how long, are of great importance. METHODS: Recidivism rates of TLM-treated high-risk individuals (+TLM; n = 54) were compared with high-risk individuals treated with psychotherapy only in the same forensic outpatient clinic (-TLM; n = 79). RESULTS: Group differences suggested a higher initial risk of + TLM (e.g. higher ris-assessment, previous convictions). Despite the increased risk, after an average time at risk of six years, +TLM recidivated significantly less often and significantly later than - TLM (27.8% vs. 51.9%). Such an effect was also found for violent (1.9% vs. 15.2%), but not for sexual (5.6% vs. 10.1%) and serious recidivism (5.6% vs. 10.1%), which could be explained partly by the small number of cases. In the course of treatment, TLM proved to be a significant variable for a positive process, whereas a high risk-assessment score indicated a rather negative course. In total, n = 19 individuals had stopped their TLM treatment, of these 31.6% recidivated. CONCLUSION: The results support the efficacy of TLM, particularly in the group of high-risk offenders.

Association between socioeconomic and motherhood characteristics with receiving community-based treatment services among justice-involved young female drug users: a retrospective cohort study in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Drug-involved individuals who contact treatment services in Taiwan are mostly driven by criminal justice systems either as an alternative or adjunct to criminal sanctions for a drug offence. With a focus on justice-involved young female drug users, the present study examines the extent to which socioeconomic and motherhood characteristics are associated with receiving deferred prosecution, a scheme diverting drug offenders to community-based addiction treatment. METHODS: We identified a cohort of 5869 women under the age of 30 arrested for using Schedule II drugs (primarily amphetamine-like stimulants) from the 2011-2017 National Police Criminal Records in Taiwan. Information concerning socioeconomic characteristics, pregnancy and live birth history, and deferred prosecution was obtained through linkage with the 2006-2019 National Health Insurance, birth registration, and deferred prosecution datasets. Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate the association with stratification by recidivism status. RESULTS: Within six months of arrest, 21% of first-time offenders (n = 2645) received deferred prosecution and 23% received correction-based rehabilitation; the corresponding estimates for recidivists (n = 3224) were 6% and 15%, respectively. Among first-time offenders, low/unstable income was associated with lower odds of deferred prosecution (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.71; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.88). For recidivists, those with low/unstable income (aOR = 1.58) or unemployment (aOR = 1.58) had higher odds of correction-based rehabilitation; being pregnant at arrest was linked with reduced odds of deferred prosecution (aOR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.13, 0.71) and correction-based rehabilitation (aOR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: For the young women arrested for drug offences, disadvantaged socioeconomic conditions were generally unfavored by the diversion to treatment in the community. Childbearing upon arrest may lower not only the odds of receiving medical treatment but also correctional intervention. The criminal prosecution policy and process should be informed by female drug offenders' need for treatment and recovery.

Impact of opioid maintenance therapy in the community on re-incarceration in individuals with opioid use disorder-A linked cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Studies have found associations between Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment during incarceration and reduced recidivism among recently released formerly incarcerated persons. However, the role of community-based Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment in reducing recidivism post-release remains less explored. This study examines whether pre-release arranged, prison-to-rehabilitation Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment in the community following release is associated with reduced rates and lengths of re-incarceration among justice-involved individuals with Opioid Use Disorder. METHODS: A retrospective matched cohort study was conducted using linked records of 208 individuals with a history of Opioid Use Disorder and treatment during their incarceration. The primary predictor variable was the duration of Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment, with re-incarceration rates and lengths of stay after re-incarceration being the primary outcomes examined. RESULTS: Analysis showed a significant decrease in re-incarcerations and or lengths of stay in prison among those who have been re-incarcerated and have undergone Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment in the community for >24 months. CONCLUSIONS: Maintaining Opioid Agonist Maintenance Treatment over 24 months may reduce re-incarcerations, and may be significantly associated with a reduction in the length of prison stay for re-incarcerated individuals. The effects were consistent across the overall population and the individuals receiving the treatment. Various other unmeasured factors, including judicial discretion, individual motivation, type of offense, and employment status, could influence this association.

The effectiveness of interventions for offending behaviours in adults with autism spectrum disorders (ASD): a systematic PRISMA review.

Previous research has suggested that the core features of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) may contribute to offending behaviours and increased vulnerability within the Criminal Justice System. To date, there is a paucity of evidence assessing the effectiveness of interventions for offending behaviour in adults with ASD but without co-occurring intellectual disability (ID) across a broad range of forensic settings. The lack of robust evidence is concerning, as limited effectiveness may contribute to an increased likelihood of prolonged incarceration, particularly in the most restrictive settings. A PRISMA systematic review was conducted with a narrative synthesis to: (a) evaluate the evidence of the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing recidivism, (b) assess whether the core features of ASD impact the effectiveness of these interventions, and (c) identify additional factors that may affect the effectiveness of interventions within this population. Seven studies involving ten male participants were identified. The findings suggest that interventions for offending behaviours in adults with ASD without intellectual disability (ID) are largely inadequate, and that core ASD features need to be considered. Additionally, a complex interplay of risk factors potentially impacting intervention effectiveness was suggested. Limitations include heterogeneity across intervention types, measures of effectiveness, and what constitutes effectiveness. Despite the limited number of studies and data quality, the review aligns with a growing body of literature highlighting vulnerability and a need for evidence-based interventions for people with ASD. The review also discusses the broader implications of ineffective interventions.

Examining the effectiveness of the Gateway conditional caution on health and well-being of young adults committing low-level offences: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Young adults who commit low-level offences commonly have a range of health and social needs and are significantly over-represented in the criminal justice system. These young adults may need to attend court and potentially receive penalties including imprisonment. Alternative routes exist, which can help address the underlying causes of offending. Some feel more should be done to help young adults entering the criminal justice system. The Gateway programme was a type of out-of-court disposal developed by Hampshire Constabulary, which aimed to address the complex needs of young adults who commit low-level crimes. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Gateway programme, issued as a conditional caution, compared with usual process. METHODS: The Gateway study was a pragmatic, parallel-group, superiority randomised controlled trial that recruited young adults who had committed a low-level offence from four sites covering Hampshire and Isle of Wight. The primary outcome was mental health and well-being measured using the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale. Secondary outcomes were quality of life, alcohol and drug use, and recidivism. Outcomes were measured at 4, 16 and 52 weeks postrandomisation. RESULTS: Due to issues with retention of participants and low data collection rates, recruitment ended early, with 191 eligible participants randomised (Gateway 109; usual process 82). The primary outcome was obtained for 93 (48.7%) participants at 4 weeks, 93 (48.7%) at 16 weeks and 43 (22.5%) at 1 year. The high attrition rates meant that effectiveness could not be assessed as planned. CONCLUSIONS: Gateway is the first trial in a UK police setting to have a health-related primary outcome requiring individual data collection, rather than focusing solely on recidivism. We demonstrated that it is possible to recruit and randomise from the study population, however follow-up rates were low. Further work is needed to identify ways to facilitate engagement between researchers and vulnerable populations to collect data. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11888938.

Effectiveness of substance use disorder treatment as an alternative to imprisonment.

INTRODUCTION: Drug courts are criminal justice programs to divert people with substance use disorders from incarceration into treatment. Drug courts have become increasingly popular in the US and other countries. However, their effectiveness in reducing important public health outcomes such as recidivism and substance-related health harms remains ambiguous and contested. We used nationwide register data from Sweden to evaluate the effectiveness of contract treatment sanction, the Swedish version of drug court, in reducing substance misuse, adverse somatic and mental health outcomes, and recidivism. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, two quasi-experimental designs were used: difference-in-differences and the within-individual design. In the latter, we compared the risk of outcomes during time on contract treatment to, 1) parole after imprisonment and, 2) probation. RESULTS: The cohort included 11,893 individuals (13% women) who underwent contract treatment. Contract treatment was associated with a reduction of 7 percentage points (95% CI: -.088, -.055) in substance misuse, 5 percentage points (-.064, -.034) in adverse mental health events, 9 percentage points (-.113, -.076) in adverse somatic health events, and 3 fewer charges (-3.16, -2.85) for crime in difference-in-differences analyses. Within-individual associations suggested that the same individual had longer times-to-event for all outcomes during contract treatment than on parole or on probation. CONCLUSIONS: Contract treatment is an effective intervention from both public health and criminal justice perspective. Our findings suggest that it is a superior alternative to incarceration in its target group. Further, we find that an implementation approach that is less punitive and more inclusive than what is typical in the US can be successful.

Reoffending after convictions related to child sexual exploitation material: Data from the German Federal Central Criminal Register.

BACKGROUND: As digitalization has made it easier to produce, copy, and distribute child sexual exploitation material (CSEM), the possession and distribution of child sexual abuse images has become more widespread. Thus, the need to assess the risk of subsequent sex offenses - above all, sexual abuse of children by individuals who have been convicted of CSEM offenses - becomes more and more important. OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the respective size of two groups of offenders: first, offenders who commit CSEM offenses without ever crossing the line to sexual abuse of children, and second, so-called crossover offenders, that is, individuals who commit CSEM offenses and engage in child sexual abuse. Identification of differences between these two groups facilitates analyzing the risk that someone convicted of a CSEM offense might in the future sexually assault children. METHOD: We used data from the German Federal Central Criminal Register (Bundeszentralregister), a data set that includes information about all persons convicted of any criminal offense, including "child pornography" offenses, by a court in Germany. RESULTS: For persons convicted of CSEM offenses only, with no additional concurring sex offenses, the rate of subsequent convictions for child sexual abuse is very low (1.1 % after a six-year follow-up period, adult offenders). This risk is even lower if offenders are older than 30 years of age, and it is slightly higher for offenders with previous offense-specific convictions (i.e., previous sex offenses). CONCLUSIONS: The mere existence of a conviction for a CSEM offense is not an indication that the convicted person poses a significant risk of committing child sexual abuse. To pinpoint such a risk more accurately, the following factors should be examined: the existence of offense-specific prior records, the presence of crossover-offending in the form of concurring offenses, and the age of the offender.

Validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in a community sexual offense outpatient setting.

The present study examined the convergent, structural, and predictive properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) scores in a sample of 200 men on community supervision for sexual offenses, attending forensic community outpatient services and followed up an average 8.6 years. The VRS-SO and two additional dynamic sexual recidivism risk measures-STABLE 2007 and Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS)-were coded archivally from clinic files; Static-99R ratings were extracted. Recidivism data were captured from Royal Canadian Mounted Police records. VRS-SO static, dynamic, and total scores demonstrated expected patterns of convergence with total and subscale scores of the risk measures. Moreover, a confirmatory factor analysis of the VRS-SO dynamic item scores demonstrated acceptable model fit for a correlated three-factor solution consistent with prior confirmatory factor analyses. Discrimination analyses demonstrated that VRS-SO dynamic and total scores and STABLE 2007 scores had large prediction effects for 5-year sexual recidivism (area under the curves [AUCs] = .71-.72) while SOTIPS had a medium effect for this outcome (AUC = .67); the measures yielded medium to large effects for nonsexual recidivism. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated that VRS-SO dynamic, Sexual Deviance factor, and SOTIPS scores each incrementally predicted sexual recidivism controlling for Static-99R or VRS-SO static factor scores. VRS-SO calibration analyses demonstrated that expected or predicted 5-year sexual recidivism rates showed generally close correspondence to the rates predicted or observed in the present community sample. Results support the psychometric properties of the VRS-SO, a sexual violence risk assessment and treatment planning measure, to a community outpatient sample. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

The burden for clinical services of persons with an intellectual disability or mental disorder convicted of criminal offences: A birth cohort study of 14,605 persons followed to age 64.

BACKGROUND: Intellectual disability (ID), schizophrenia spectrum disorder (SSD), bipolar disorder (BD), substance use disorder (SUD), and other mental disorders (OMDs) are associated with increased risks of criminality relative to sex-matched individuals without these conditions (NOIDMD). To resource psychiatric, addiction, and social services so as to provide effective treatments, further information is needed about the size of sub-groups convicted of crimes, recidivism, timing of offending, antecedents, and correlates. Stigma of persons with mental disorders could potentially be dramatically reduced if violence was prevented. METHODS: A birth cohort of 14,605 persons was followed to age 64 using data from Swedish national health, criminal, and social registers. RESULTS: Percentages of group members convicted of violence differed significantly: males NOIDMD, 7.3%, ID 29.2%, SSD 38.6%, BD 30.7%; SUD 44.0%, and OMD 19.3%; females NOIDMD 0.8%, ID 7.7%, SSD 11.2%, BD 2.4%, SD 17.0%, and OMD 2.1%. Violent recidivism was high. Most violent offenders in the diagnostic groups were also convicted of non-violent crimes. Prior to first diagnosis, convictions (violent or non-violent) had been acquired by over 90% of the male offenders and two-thirds of the female offenders. Physical victimization, adult comorbid SUD, childhood conduct problems, and adolescent substance misuse were each associated with increased risks of offending. CONCLUSION: Sub-groups of cohort members with ID or mental disorders were convicted of violent and non-violent crimes to age 64 suggesting the need for treatment of primary disorders and for antisocial/aggressive behavior. Many patients engaging in violence could be identified at first contact with clinical services.

A pilot study regarding the feasibility and efficacy of an outpatient treatment program for young adult high-risk offenders (YAHOP).

This pilot study examines whether the Young Adult Habitual Offender Program (YAHOP), an intensive and outpatient program, is related to a reduction in the general risk of recidivism, common forensic symptomology as well as cognitive distortions. The program integrity (PI) was assessed, with the intent to explore the relationship between the level of PI and any changes in several outcome variables. Additionally, the study examines whether participants with a migration background benefitted equally from YAHOP compared to participants with a native Dutch background. The sample comprised n = 90 high-risk young adult offenders. Results show a decrease in general risk of recidivism. The dynamic risk factors delinquent social network, insufficient impulse control, and dysfunctional problem-solving skills also show a decrease, as well as the forensic symptoms of aggression and anger. Effect sizes are small, except for anger, which has a medium effect size. We found no change in cognitive distortions and problematic substance use. YAHOP shows to be responsive and culturally sensitive, as the participants with a migration background show a significant decrease in general risk of recidivism. No moderator analysis was conducted due to an overall low level of program integrity. After improving program integrity, full-scale quantitative research is needed as YAHOP has the potential as a promising desistance program for high-risk offenders, as in this study the 56 non-completers were also included.

Immigrant background, incarceration history and recidivism among adults assessed for illicit substance use severity: Findings from a Swedish registry study.

BACKGROUND: In Sweden, as in other countries, individuals with immigrant backgrounds are disproportionately represented within the incarcerated population. This study examined the association between immigrant background and future incarceration for individuals assessed for illicit substance use severity, while considering their prior incarceration history. METHODS: Using data from Swedish Addiction Severity Index (ASI) assessments linked to register data from Statistics Sweden, we employed Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression models to analyse differences in incarceration histories within five years before and after ASI assessments based on immigrant backgrounds. Additionally, Cox proportional-hazard models were used to assess the likelihood of post-assessment incarceration among these groups. RESULTS: Immigrant background was positively associated with pre- and post-assessment incarceration. First- and second-generation immigrants from the Global South had longer periods of incarceration in the five years before assessments compared to native Swedes. Post-assessment, first-generation immigrants showed longer periods of incarceration. Survival analyses supported these findings, indicating a higher risk of prolonged post-assessment incarceration among all immigrant groups, particularly first-generation immigrants from the Global South. CONCLUSION: Among individuals assessed for illicit drug use within Swedish municipalities, those with immigrant backgrounds faced higher incarceration risks, even after controlling for substance use severity and prior incarceration. Tailored interventions and support systems are vital to prevent re-entry into the criminal justice system. Timely actions can break re-offending cycles, redirecting paths away from reoffending and towards legal reintegration, thereby reducing incarceration and recidivism rates.

Investigating racial disparities in violence risk assessment using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide-Version 3 (SARA-V3): Structured professional judgment ratings and recidivism among Indigenous and non-Indigenous individuals.

Racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes are widely observed. In Canada, such disparities are particularly evident between Indigenous and non-Indigenous persons. The role of formal risk assessment in contributing to such disparities remains a topic of interest to many, but critical analysis has almost exclusively focused on actuarial or statistical risk measures. Recent research suggests that ratings from other common tools, based on the structured professional judgment model, can also demonstrate racial disparities. This study examined risk assessments produced using a widely used structured professional judgment tool, the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide-Version 3, among a sample of 190 individuals with histories of intimate partner violence. We examined the relationships among race, risk factors, summary risk ratings, and recidivism while also investigating whether participants' racial identity influenced the likelihood of incurring formal sanctions for reported violence. Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide-Version 3 risk factor totals and summary risk ratings were associated with new violent charges. Indigenous individuals were assessed as demonstrating more risk factors and were more likely to be rated as high risk, even after controlling for summed risk factor totals and prior convictions. They were also more likely to recidivate and to have a history of at least one reported act of violence that did not result in formal sanctions. The results suggest that structured professional judgment guidelines can produce disparate results across racial groups. The disparities observed may reflect genuine differences in the likelihood of recidivism, driven by psychologically meaningful risk factors which have origins in deep-rooted systemic and contextual factors. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Executive functioning in antisocial behavior: A multi-level systematic meta-analysis.

Neurobiological information - including executive functioning - is increasingly relevant for forensic clinical practice, as well as for the criminal justice system. Previous meta-analyses report that antisocial populations show impaired performance on executive functioning tasks, but these meta-analyses are outdated, have limitations in their methodological approach, and are therefore in need of an update. The current multi-level meta-analysis including 133 studies (2008-2023) confirms impaired performance in executive functioning (d=.42), but studies are heterogeneous. Several moderator analyses showed that neuropsychological test used, type of executive function component, and control group characteristics moderated the overall effect. Specifically, matching psychiatric problems in the non-antisocial control group eliminated any differences in executive functioning between groups. No moderation effects were found for assessment quality, hot or cold executive functions, and various population characteristics. These results could indicate that the assessment of executive functioning in antisocial populations may be less relevant for recidivism risk assessment than thought, although this should first be assessed in prospective longitudinal studies. Executive functioning could potentially be used to identify or screen for individuals with certain treatment needs or be used as a responsivity factor, especially in disorders which are often underdiagnosed in criminal justice settings.

Therapeutic and risk relevance of psychopathy and general criminal attitude change in an institutional sexual offense treatment program.

We examined the interrelationships between psychopathy, changes in general criminal attitudes, and community recidivism in a sample of 212 men who attended an institutional sexual offense treatment program (SOTP) and were followed for an average of 12.73 years post-release. The men completed a self-report measure of general criminal attitudes, the Criminal Sentiments Scale, as part of routine SOTP service delivery, Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) ratings were completed via file review, and recidivism data were obtained from official criminal records. Criminal attitude endorsement and criminal attitude change had clinically meaningful, but differential, associations with the antisocial and interpersonal features of psychopathy. Further, positive changes in criminal attitudes-particularly tolerance of law violations (i.e., rationalizations for criminal behavior)-were significantly predictive of reductions in community violent and general recidivism after controlling for PCL-R score. Results demonstrate that general criminal attitude change has risk relevance in the treatment of high psychopathy persons with sexual offense histories.

Mixed methods evaluation of a jail diversion program: Impact on arrests and functioning.

This mixed methods study had two aims: (1) to examine the effectiveness of a jail diversion program in reducing recidivism and promoting educational and employment outcomes; and (2) to qualitatively explore mechanisms through which the program was effective. Participants were 17 individuals arrested for drug offenses who participated in an intensive, law enforcement-based jail diversion program, and 17 individuals in a comparison group. Arrests were extracted from police records, and education and employment were extracted from program data. Four intervention participants completed qualitative interviews. Arrest rates in the intervention group decreased significantly postintervention, and arrest rates in the intervention group were numerically lower than those in the comparison group. Participants experienced significant increases in employment and driver's license status. Participants also identified mechanisms through which the program was effective. This jail diversion program shows promise in reducing recidivism and promoting adaptive functioning. Jail diversion programs that include mentorship, peer support, and removal of barriers to success may be particularly effective.

Personality assessment inventory (PAI) in forensic and correctional settings: A comprehensive review.

As Forensic Psychology continues to expand as an independent field, professionals regularly resort to psychological assessment tools to assess people involved within the justice system. The Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI) is a 344-item, self-report inventory that aims to provide meaningful information for diagnosis and clinical decision-making, specifically relating to psychopathology, personality, and psychosocial environment. Its applicability in forensic settings has been increasingly recognized on account of its benefits in comparison to other self-report inventories (e.g., MMPI-2, MCMI-III), since it includes scales that are relevant to forensic settings (e.g., violence risk levels, psychopathy, substance abuse), and the existence of profile distortion indicators is useful when dealing with highly defensive and/or malingering populations. The goal of this paper is to conduct a thorough review of the PAI's utility in forensic settings, by focusing on the relevant forensic constructs assessed by the PAI (e.g., personality disorders, psychosis, substance abuse, aggression, recidivism risk, and response distortion), as well as its application to offender and inmate populations, intimate partner violence contexts, family law cases, and forensic professionals. Overall, the PAI continues to gather international recognition and its relevance and usefulness in forensic settings is generally accepted and acknowledged.

Clarifying the relationship between mental illness and recidivism using machine learning: A retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: There is currently inconclusive evidence regarding the relationship between recidivism and mental illness. This retrospective study aimed to use rigorous machine learning methods to understand the unique predictive utility of mental illness for recidivism in a general population (i.e.; not only those with mental illness) prison sample in the United States. METHOD: Participants were adult men (n = 322) and women (n = 72) who were recruited from three prisons in the Midwest region of the United States. Three model comparisons using Bayesian correlated t-tests were conducted to understand the incremental predictive utility of mental illness, substance use, and crime and demographic variables for recidivism prediction. Three classification statistical algorithms were considered while evaluating model configurations for the t-tests: elastic net logistic regression (GLMnet), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and random forests (RF). RESULTS: Rates of substance use disorders were particularly high in our sample (86.29%). Mental illness variables and substance use variables did not add predictive utility for recidivism prediction over and above crime and demographic variables. Exploratory analyses comparing the crime and demographic, substance use, and mental illness feature sets to null models found that only the crime and demographics model had an increased likelihood of improving recidivism prediction accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Despite not finding a direct relationship between mental illness and recidivism, treatment of mental illness in incarcerated populations is still essential due to the high rates of mental illnesses, the legal imperative, the possibility of decreasing institutional disciplinary burden, the opportunity to increase the effectiveness of rehabilitation programs in prison, and the potential to improve meaningful outcomes beyond recidivism following release.

Psychopathy Scores Predict Recidivism in High-risk Youth: A Five-year Follow-up Study.

Psychopathic traits have been associated with rearrest in adolescents involved in the criminal legal system. Much of the prior work has focused on White samples, short follow-up windows, and relatively low-risk youth. The current study aimed to evaluate the utility of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) for predicting general and violent felony recidivism in a large sample of high-risk, predominantly Hispanic/Latino, male adolescents (n = 254) with a five-year follow-up period. Results indicated higher PCL:YV scores and lower full-scale estimated IQ scores were significantly associated with a shorter time to felony and violent felony rearrest. These effects generalized to Hispanic/Latino adolescents (n = 193)-a group that faces disproportionate risk of being detained or committed to juvenile correctional facilities in the U.S. These results suggest that expert-rated measures of psychopathic traits and IQ are reliable predictors of subsequent felony and violent felony rearrest among high-risk male adolescents.