Study on spatial distribution, regional differences and dynamic evolution of rural financial risk in China.

Based on panel data from 2009 to 2021, covering 30 provinces in China, we have been constructed the Rural Financial Risk Index using the objective entropy weighting method to study rural financial risk in China systematically from the perspective of spatial distribution. Specifically, we discuss the spatial distribution, regional differences and dynamic evolution of rural financial risk across Chinese four different regions divided into the Northeast, East, Central and West. It's found that Local government debt and Land transfer income are the two primary determinants influencing the level of rural financial risk in China. Furthermore, we conclude the ranking value of rural financial risk across four regions that the central exhibits the highest level, followed by the West, the East, and finally the Northeast, where the reasons for such ranking results as follows. Firstly, although the highest level of risk among provinces in the West is equivalent to that in the Central, there exists a smaller minimum rural financial risk in the former compared to the latter. Then, it should be noted that there's a low-low agglomeration of rural financial risk in the Northeast, while it demonstrates a high-high agglomeration in the Central according to the Moran Index test analysis. Again, there's a declining trend in rural financial risk disparity within the region and an upward trend is observed when comparing different regions (except the East vs West), especially increase largely between the Northeast and Central in past two years after analyzing the decomposition of Dagum Gini coefficient. Moreover, we study the absolute differences and dynamic evolution in different four regions through three-dimensional diagram of kernel density estimation, and it's found that the change of rural financial risk in four regions moved to the right as a whole, while the tail distribution remains inconspicuous. The absolute difference is diminishing in the Northeast, and the two-level differentiation characteristics tend to weaken as a whole in the Central, with a disordered wave peak height observed in both the East and West. Finally, the article presents pertinent policy implications but limitations according to the research findings.

Direct and indirect treatment effects in the presence of semicompeting risks.

Semicompeting risks refer to the phenomenon that the terminal event (such as death) can censor the nonterminal event (such as disease progression) but not vice versa. The treatment effect on the terminal event can be delivered either directly following the treatment or indirectly through the nonterminal event. We consider 2 strategies to decompose the total effect into a direct effect and an indirect effect under the framework of mediation analysis in completely randomized experiments by adjusting the prevalence and hazard of nonterminal events, respectively. They require slightly different assumptions on cross-world quantities to achieve identifiability. We establish asymptotic properties for the estimated counterfactual cumulative incidences and decomposed treatment effects. We illustrate the subtle difference between these 2 decompositions through simulation studies and two real-data applications in the Supplementary Materials.

[Association, differences, and applications of three commonly used statistical indicators: risk ratio, hazard ratio, and odds ratio].

Relative Risk (RR), Hazard Ratio (HR), and Odds Ratio (OR) are commonly used statistical measures in the field of public health to assess the magnitude of the effect of exposure factors on outcomes. These indicators have different calculation principles and implications in public health. However, a few researchers misused or misinterpreted RR, HR, and OR values when interpreting study results. Therefore, this article explores the relationships and differences among these measures, as well as the correct selection and application of RR, HR, and OR in both cohort study and case-control study.

Committing to the wrong artificial delegate in a collective-risk dilemma is better than directly committing mistakes.

While autonomous artificial agents are assumed to perfectly execute the strategies they are programmed with, humans who design them may make mistakes. These mistakes may lead to a misalignment between the humans' intended goals and their agents' observed behavior, a problem of value alignment. Such an alignment problem may have particularly strong consequences when these autonomous systems are used in social contexts that involve some form of collective risk. By means of an evolutionary game theoretical model, we investigate whether errors in the configuration of artificial agents change the outcome of a collective-risk dilemma, in comparison to a scenario with no delegation. Delegation is here distinguished from no-delegation simply by the moment at which a mistake occurs: either when programming/choosing the agent (in case of delegation) or when executing the actions at each round of the game (in case of no-delegation). We find that, while errors decrease success rate, it is better to delegate and commit to a somewhat flawed strategy, perfectly executed by an autonomous agent, than to commit execution errors directly. Our model also shows that in the long-term, delegation strategies should be favored over no-delegation, if given the choice.

A nonparametric proportional risk model to assess a treatment effect in time-to-event data.

Time-to-event analysis often relies on prior parametric assumptions, or, if a semiparametric approach is chosen, Cox's model. This is inherently tied to the assumption of proportional hazards, with the analysis potentially invalidated if this assumption is not fulfilled. In addition, most interpretations focus on the hazard ratio, that is often misinterpreted as the relative risk (RR), the ratio of the cumulative distribution functions. In this paper, we introduce an alternative to current methodology for assessing a treatment effect in a two-group situation, not relying on the proportional hazards assumption but assuming proportional risks. Precisely, we propose a new nonparametric model to directly estimate the RR of two groups to experience an event under the assumption that the risk ratio is constant over time. In addition to this relative measure, our model allows for calculating the number needed to treat as an absolute measure, providing the possibility of an easy and holistic interpretation of the data. We demonstrate the validity of the approach by means of a simulation study and present an application to data from a large randomized controlled trial investigating the effect of dapagliflozin on all-cause mortality.

Risk of meningomyelocele mediated by the common 22q11.2 deletion.

Meningomyelocele is one of the most severe forms of neural tube defects (NTDs) and the most frequent structural birth defect of the central nervous system. We assembled the Spina Bifida Sequencing Consortium to identify causes. Exome and genome sequencing of 715 parent-offspring trios identified six patients with chromosomal 22q11.2 deletions, suggesting a 23-fold increased risk compared with the general population. Furthermore, analysis of a separate 22q11.2 deletion cohort suggested a 12- to 15-fold increased NTD risk of meningomyelocele. The loss of Crkl, one of several neural tube-expressed genes within the minimal deletion interval, was sufficient to replicate NTDs in mice, where both penetrance and expressivity were exacerbated by maternal folate deficiency. Thus, the common 22q11.2 deletion confers substantial meningomyelocele risk, which is partially alleviated by folate supplementation.

An integrative framework for mapping the psychological landscape of risk perception.

We vary greatly in our perception of risk, not just because of differences between risks themselves, but also because of individual, contextual and cultural differences too. To better understand and predict responses to risk, we need to (a) integrate these components, combining approaches from different psychological disciplines and (b) also consider risk tolerance - how individuals trade-off between risks and benefits. We therefore developed an ICONS (individual, contextual, cognitive, social) framework; using it across two empirical studies (n = 4228) to examine how individuals perceive and respond to the quotidian risks associated with consumer products. Three dimensions underlined risk perceptions: benefits, dread and individual responsibility. Risk tolerance was typically predicted by interactions between individual (demographic, cultural worldview, personality) and contextual (product type/category, harm information) factors. In turn, perceived dread, benefits and individual differences shaped how likely participants were to communicate risk information. Our results demonstrate for the first time how the interaction between individual, cognitive (risk tolerance, intensity), contextual, and social (risk communication) factors is key to understanding and predicting risk perceptions. Together, our findings help explain why societal responses to risks are often difficult to predict and have implications for the spread, and amplification, of risk information.

WE economy: Potential of mutual aid distribution based on moral responsibility and risk vulnerability.

Reducing wealth inequality is a global challenge that requires the transformation of the economic systems that produce inequality. The economic system comprises: (1) gifts and reciprocity, (2) power and redistribution, (3) market exchange, and (4) mutual aid without reciprocal obligations. Current inequality stems from a capitalist economy consisting of (2) and (3). To sublimate (1), the human economy, to (4), the concept of a "mixbiotic society" has been proposed in the philosophical realm. In this society, free and diverse individuals mix, recognize their respective "fundamental incapability," and sublimate them into "WE" solidarity. Moreover, the economy must have a moral responsibility as a co-adventurer and consider its vulnerability to risk. This study focuses on two factors of mind perception-moral responsibility and risk vulnerability-and proposes a novel wealth distribution model between the two agents following an econophysical approach, whereas the conventional model dealt with redistribution through taxes and institutions. Three models are developed: a joint-venture model in which profit/losses are distributed based on their factors, a redistribution model in which wealth stocks are redistributed periodically based on their factors in the joint-venture model, and a "WE economy" model in which profit/losses are distributed based on the ratio of each other's factors. A simulation comparison reveals that WE economies are effective in reducing inequality, resilient in normalizing wealth distribution as advantages, and susceptible to free riders as disadvantages. However, this disadvantage can be compensated for by fostering fellowship and using joint ventures. This study presents the effectiveness of moral responsibility and risk vulnerability, complementarity between the WE economy and joint economy, and the direction of the economy in reducing inequality. Future challenges include developing an advanced model based on real economic analysis and economic psychology and promoting its fieldwork for worker coops and platform cooperatives to realize a desirable mixbiotic society.

Consumers' risk perception, market demand, and firm innovation: Evidence from China.

Major product safety incidents often cause widespread concern among consumers, and these product safety incidents will stimulate consumers' psychology, change their risk perception, and affect the demand for products and services of risk consumers. The change in consumer demand will eventually lead to a change in firm innovation decisions. Using Chinese firm-level data, this paper employs the news reporting of the Bawang event as a quasi-natural experiment to study the impact of risk perception changes on innovation. The empirical results of this study show that increasing consumers' risk perception caused by the negative news coverage of defective products motivates firms to increase their innovation. The effects are heterogeneous, where firms with private ownership and in developed regions are more likely to increase innovation activities. This study suggests that the relationship between consumers' risk perception and firm innovation is primarily driven by market demand. Moreover, the positive effects of risk perception on innovation are more prominent for downstream firms and those having a smaller technological distance.

Prostate Cancer Screening With PSA, Kallikrein Panel, and MRI: The ProScreen Randomized Trial.

Importance: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening has potential to reduce prostate cancer mortality but frequently detects prostate cancer that is not clinically important. Objective: To describe rates of low-grade (grade group 1) and high-grade (grade groups 2-5) prostate cancer identified among men invited to participate in a prostate cancer screening protocol consisting of a PSA test, a 4-kallikrein panel, and a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan. Design, Setting, and Participants: The ProScreen trial is a clinical trial conducted in Helsinki and Tampere, Finland, that randomized 61 193 men aged 50 through 63 years who were free of prostate cancer in a 1:3 ratio to either be invited or not be invited to undergo screening for prostate cancer between February 2018 and July 2020. Interventions: Participating men randomized to the intervention underwent PSA testing. Those with a PSA level of 3.0 ng/mL or higher underwent additional testing for high-grade prostate cancer with a 4-kallikrein panel risk score. Those with a kallikrein panel score of 7.5% or higher underwent an MRI of the prostate gland, followed by targeted biopsies for those with abnormal prostate gland MRI findings. Final data collection occurred through June 31, 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: In descriptive exploratory analyses, the cumulative incidence of low-grade and high-grade prostate cancer after the first screening round were compared between the group invited to undergo prostate cancer screening and the control group. Results: Of 60 745 eligible men (mean [SD] age, 57.2 [4.0] years), 15 201 were randomized to be invited and 45 544 were randomized not to be invited to undergo prostate cancer screening. Of 15 201 eligible males invited to undergo screening, 7744 (51%) participated. Among them, 32 low-grade prostate cancers (cumulative incidence, 0.41%) and 128 high-grade prostate cancers (cumulative incidence, 1.65%) were detected, with 1 cancer grade group result missing. Among the 7457 invited men (49%) who refused participation, 7 low-grade prostate cancers (cumulative incidence, 0.1%) and 44 high-grade prostate cancers (cumulative incidence, 0.6%) were detected, with 7 cancer grade groups missing. For the entire invited screening group, 39 low-grade prostate cancers (cumulative incidence, 0.26%) and 172 high-grade prostate cancers (cumulative incidence, 1.13%) were detected. During a median follow-up of 3.2 years, in the group not invited to undergo screening, 65 low-grade prostate cancers (cumulative incidence, 0.14%) and 282 high-grade prostate cancers (cumulative incidence, 0.62%) were detected. The risk difference for the entire group randomized to the screening invitation vs the control group was 0.11% (95% CI, 0.03%-0.20%) for low-grade and 0.51% (95% CI, 0.33%-0.70%) for high-grade cancer. Conclusions and Relevance: In this preliminary descriptive report from an ongoing randomized clinical trial, 1 additional high-grade cancer per 196 men and 1 low-grade cancer per 909 men were detected among those randomized to be invited to undergo a single prostate cancer screening intervention compared with those not invited to undergo screening. These preliminary findings from a single round of screening should be interpreted cautiously, pending results of the study's primary mortality outcome. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03423303.

Preoperative GLP-1 Receptor Agonist Use and Risk of Postoperative Respiratory Complications.

This cohort study evaluates the risk of postoperative respiratory complications among patients with diabetes undergoing surgery who had vs those who had not a prescription fill for glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists.

Risk of road traffic injury in Norway 1970-2022.

This paper describes changes in the risk of road traffic injury in Norway during the period from 1970 to 2022. During this period, the risk of fatal and personal injury declined by more than 70 % for most groups of road users. There are five main potential explanations of a decline in the risk of injury: (1) a reduced probability of accidents that have the potential for causing injury; (2) an improved protection against injury given that an accident has occurred; (3) improved medical care increasing the survival rate, given an injury (this would reduce the number of fatalities, but not the number of injuries); (4) a tendency for the reporting of injuries in official accident statistics to decline over time; (5) uncertain or erroneous estimates of the exposure to the risk of injury. The decline in the risk of road traffic injuries in Norway after 1970 can probably be attributed to a combination of reduced reporting of injuries in official statistics, improved protection against injury in accidents, and (for fatal injuries) improved medical care. Insurance data, available from 1992, do not indicate a reduction in the risk of accidents leading to insurance claims. Incomplete and possibly erroneous data for mopeds and motorcycles make it impossible to identify sources of changes in injury risk over time for these modes of transport.

Factors impacting intent to seek treatment within youth at clinical high risk for psychosis.

Existing work indicates that there is unmet need for care in those at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. However, research on the factors that drive treatment seeking behaviors in this population is limited. Further, it is unknown how help-seeking behavior in CHR individuals compares to those seen in mood disorders, who have a higher rate of treatment seeking behavior. Participants (n = 559) completed an assessment of their intent to seek mental health treatment, attenuated psychosis-risk symptoms, and psychiatric symptoms and diagnoses. Participants were divided into CHR (n = 91), Mood Disorders (MD) (n = 72), or Community Controls (CC) groups (n = 396), whose intent to seek treatment was compared. Associations between intent to seek treatment with past treatment, depression, anxiety, positive and negative symptoms, distress from symptoms, intelligence quotient (IQ) estimates, and insight were assessed in CHR individuals. Further, it was assessed how this differs for the MD group. The MD group reported higher intent to seek treatment than CHR individuals, which reported higher intent to seek treatment than the CC group. In those at CHR, previous treatment, greater depression and anxiety severity, and higher distress all independently predicted higher intent to seek treatment. Depression predicted intent to seek treatment in both MD and CHR individuals. Previous treatment predicted intent to seek treatment in those at CHR. Our findings suggest that depression and past treatment utilization are critical factors in increasing intent to seek treatment in those at CHR, potentially serving as important targets for engaging this population in treatment.

Older adults with reduced cerebrovascular reactivity exhibit high white matter hyperintensity burden.

Cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR) deficits may contribute to small vessel disease, such as white matter hyperintensities (WMH). Moreover, apolipoprotein-e4 (APOE4) carriers at genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease exhibit cerebrovascular dysfunction relative to non-carriers. We examined whether older adults, and APOE4 carriers specifically, with diminished CVR would exhibit higher WMH burden. Independently living older adults (N = 125, mean age = 69.2 years; SD = 7.6; 31.2% male) free of dementia or clinical stroke underwent brain MRI to quantify cerebral perfusion during CVR to hypercapnia and hypocapnia and determine WMH volume. Adjusting for age, sex and intracranial volume, hierarchical regression analysis revealed a significant association between whole brain CVR to hypercapnia and WMH overall [B = -.02, 95% CI (-.04, -.008), p =.003] and in APOE4 carriers [B = -.03, 95% CI (-.06, -.009), p =.009]. Findings suggest deficits in cerebral vasodilatory capacity are associated with WMH burden in older adults and future studies are warranted to further delineate the effect of APOE4 on precipitating WMH.

Trajectories of amyloid beta accumulation - Unveiling the relationship with APOE genotype and cognitive decline.

Amyloid beta (Aß) follows a sigmoidal time function with varying accumulation rates. We studied how the position on this function, reflected by different Aß accumulation phases, influences APOE ɛ4's association with Aß and cognitive decline in 503 participants without dementia using Aß-PET imaging over 5.3-years. First, Aß load and accumulation were analyzed irrespective of phases using linear mixed regression. Generally, ɛ4 carriers displayed a higher Aß load. Moreover, Aß normal (Aß-) ɛ4 carriers demonstrated higher accumulation. Next, we categorized accumulation phases as "decrease", "stable", or "increase" based on trajectory shapes. After excluding the Aß-/decrease participants from the initial regression, the difference in accumulation attributable to genotype among Aß- individuals was no longer significant. Further analysis revealed that in increase phases, Aß accumulation was higher among noncarriers, indicating a genotype-related timeline shift. Finally, cognitive decline was analyzed across phases and was already evident in the Aß-/increase phase. Our results encourage early interventions for ɛ4 carriers and imply that monitoring accumulating Aß- individuals might help identify those at risk for cognitive decline.