A TLR4 ligand-based adjuvant for promoting the immunogenicity of typhoid subunit vaccines.

None of the typhoid Vi Polysaccharide (ViPS) subunit vaccines incorporate adjuvants, and the immunogenicity of ViPS vaccines (e.g. Typbar TCV® and Typhim Vi®) is in part due to associated TLR4 ligands such as endotoxin present in these vaccines. Since endotoxin content in vaccines is variable and kept very low due to inherent toxicity, it was hypothesized that incorporating a defined amount of a non-toxic TLR4-ligand such as monophosphoryl lipid A in ViPS vaccines would improve their immunogenicity. To test this hypothesis, a monophosphoryl lipid A-based adjuvant formulation named Turbo was developed. Admixing Turbo with Typbar TCV® (ViPS-conjugated to tetanus toxoid) increased the levels of anti-ViPS IgM, IgG1, IgG2b, IgG2a/c, and IgG3 in inbred and outbred mice. In infant mice, a single immunization with Turbo adjuvanted Typbar TCV® resulted in a significantly increased and durable IgG response and improved the control of bacterial burden compared to mice immunized without Turbo. Similarly, when adjuvanted with Turbo, the antibody response and control of bacteremia were also improved in mice immunized with Typhim Vi®, an unconjugated vaccine. The immunogenicity of unconjugated ViPS is inefficient in young mice and is lost in adult mice when immunostimulatory ligands in ViPS are removed. Nevertheless, when adjuvanted with Turbo, poorly immunogenic ViPS induced a robust IgG response in young and adult mice, and this was observed even under antigen-limiting conditions. These data suggest that incorporation of Turbo as an adjuvant will make typhoid vaccines more immunogenic regardless of their intrinsic immunogenicity or conjugation status and maximize the efficacy across all ages.

TLR4 Ligands in Typhoid Vi Polysaccharide Subunit Vaccines Contribute to Immunogenicity.

Activation of B cells and T cells requires the engagement of costimulatory signaling pathways in addition to Ag receptor signaling for efficient immune responses. None of the typhoid Vi polysaccharide (ViPS) subunit vaccines contains adjuvants that could activate costimulatory signaling pathways, yet these vaccines are very immunogenic. I hypothesized that residual TLR ligands present in the ViPS preparation used for making typhoid subunit vaccines account for the robust immune response generated by these vaccines. I show the presence of endotoxin, a potent agonist of TLR4, in ViPS preparations and ViPS vaccines. Furthermore, I found that ViPS obtained from various sources induces the production of proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-6 from mouse peritoneal exudate cells. Unconjugated and tetanus toxoid-conjugated ViPS vaccines activate human and mouse TLR4. Mice deficient in TLR4 or the signaling adaptors MyD88 and Trif (Toll/IL-1R domain-containing adapter inducing IFN-ß) are severely impaired in generating anti-ViPS responses to these vaccines. Elimination of the TLR4 agonist in ViPS preparation resulted in the loss of immunogenicity, and addition of lipid A, a known TLR4 agonist, restored the immunogenicity. These data highlight the importance of associated TLR ligands in the immunogenicity of ViPS subunit vaccines.

Efficacy of typhoid conjugate vaccine in Nepal: final results of a phase 3, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever is a major public health problem in low-resource settings. Vaccination can help curb the disease and might reduce transmission. We have previously reported an interim analysis of the efficacy of typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) in Nepali children. Here we report the final results after 2 years of follow-up. METHODS: We did a participant-masked and observer-masked individually randomised trial in Lalitpur, Nepal, in which 20 019 children aged 9 months to younger than 16 years were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive a single dose of TCV (Typbar TCV, Bharat Biotech International, India) or capsular group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenA). Participants were followed up until April 9, 2020. The primary outcome was blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever. Cases were captured via passive surveillance and active telephone surveillance followed by medical record review. The trial is registered at ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN43385161 and is ongoing. FINDINGS: From Nov 20, 2017, to April 9, 2018, of 20 119 children screened, 20 019 participants were randomly assigned to receive TCV or MenA vaccine. There were 75 cases of blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever included in the analysis (13 in the TCV group and 62 in the MenA group) over the 2-year period. The protective efficacy of TCV against blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever at 2 years was 79·0% (95% CI 61·9-88·5; p<0·0001). The incidence of typhoid fever was 72 (95% CI 38-123) cases per 100 000 person-years in the TCV group and 342 (95% CI 262-438) cases per 100 000 person-years in the MenA group. Adverse events occurring within the first 7 days post-vaccination were reported previously. INTERPRETATION: The final results of this randomised, controlled trial are in keeping with the results of our published interim analysis. There is no evidence of waning protection over a 2-year period. These findings add further support for the WHO recommendations on control of enteric fever. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Immunity and Protection Provided by Live Modified Vaccines Against Paratyphoid Salmonella in Poultry-An Applied Perspective.

Several serotypes of non-host-specific or paratyphoid Salmonella have been linked with contamination of poultry meat, and eggs, resulting in foodborne outbreaks in humans. Vaccination of poultry against paratyphoid Salmonella is a frequent strategy used to reduce the levels of infection and transmission, which ultimately can lead to lower rates of human infections. Live vaccines have been developed and used in poultry immediately after hatching as a result of their ability to colonize the gut, stimulate a mucosal immune response, induce a competitive inhibitory effect against homologous wild strains, and reduce colonization and excretion of Salmonella. Furthermore, vaccines can competitively exclude some heterologous strains of Salmonella from colonizing the gastrointestinal tract when young poultry are immunologically immature. In addition, various studies have suggested that booster vaccination with live vaccines a few weeks after initial vaccination is essential to increase the level of protection and achieve better cross-protective immunity. Vaccination of breeders, broilers, layers, and turkeys with modified live Salmonella vaccines is a common intervention that has become an important component in poultry companies' multistep prevention programs to meet increasingly demanding customer and regulatory food safety requirements. Both live and inactivated vaccines play a critical role in a comprehensive control program for chicken and turkey breeders and commercial layers. This review examines the response and protection conferred by live modified vaccines against non-host-specific Salmonella that can be considered for the design and implementation of vaccination strategies in poultry.

Artículo regular­Inmunidad y protección que brindan las vacunas vivas modificadas contra salmonelas paratíficas en la avicultura­Una perspectiva aplicada. Varios serotipos de Salmonella paratífica no específica de huésped se han relacionado con la contaminación de la carne de pollo y huevos lo que ha provocado brotes de origen alimentario en los seres humanos. La vacunación de aves comerciales contra Salmonella paratífica es una estrategia que se utiliza con frecuencia para reducir los niveles de infección y transmisión, que en última instancia puede conducir a tasas más bajas de infecciones en humanos. Se han desarrollado y utilizado vacunas vivas en aves comerciales inmediatamente después de la eclosión como resultado de su capacidad para colonizar el intestino, estimular una respuesta inmunitaria de la mucosa, inducir un efecto inhibidor competitivo contra cepas silvestres homólogas y reducir la colonización y excreción de Salmonella. Además, las vacunas pueden excluir competitivamente algunas cepas heterólogas de Salmonella de colonizar el tracto gastrointestinal cuando las aves jóvenes son inmunológicamente inmaduras. Además, varios estudios han sugerido que la vacunación de refuerzo con vacunas vivas unas semanas después de la vacunación inicial es esencial para aumentar el nivel de protección y lograr una mejor inmunidad de protección cruzada. La vacunación de reproductoras, pollos de engorde, aves de postura y pavos con vacunas vivas modificadas contra Salmonella es una intervención común que se ha convertido en un componente importante en los programas de prevención de múltiples pasos de las empresas avícolas para cumplir con los requisitos de los clientes y regulatorios de seguridad alimentaria. Tanto las vacunas vivas como las inactivadas desempeñan un papel fundamental en un programa de control integral para productores de pollos, pavos y aves ponedoras comerciales. Esta revisión examina la respuesta y la protección conferidas por las vacunas vivas modificadas contra Salmonella no específica del huésped que pueden ser consideradas para el diseño e implementación de estrategias de vacunación en la avicultura.

Effectiveness of typhoid conjugate vaccine against culture-confirmed Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi in an extensively drug-resistant outbreak setting of Hyderabad, Pakistan: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) is a major public health problem in low-income and middle-income countries. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness and impact of the typhoid conjugate vaccine Typbar-TCV against S Typhi among children in an outbreak setting of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) S Typhi in Pakistan. METHODS: This cohort study was done from Feb 21, 2018, to Dec 31, 2019. A census survey of all households located in the Qasimabad and Latifabad subdistricts of Hyderabad, Pakistan, was done at baseline, and 174 005 households were registered in the census. The Typbar-TCV immunisation campaign was initiated at temporary vaccination centres and 207 000 children aged 6 months to 10 years were vaccinated from Feb 21, 2018, to Dec 31, 2018. Social mobilisers informed parents about the vaccination process. Vaccination records were maintained electronically and linked with the household census surveys. Active surveillance for suspected and blood-culture-confirmed S Typhi was established in hospitals, clinics, and laboratories to assess the following outcomes: cases of suspected typhoid fever, culture-confirmed S Typhi, and antimicrobial resistance. An age-stratified cohort of 1100 vaccinated children was randomly selected from the vaccination registry, tested for Vi-IgG antibodies (data not reported), and followed up fortnightly (via telephone calls or household visits) until Dec 31, 2019, for ascertainment of outcomes during the study period. 20 847 vaccinated and unvaccinated children were randomly selected from the census registry as a quality control cohort and followed up from Oct 1 to Dec 31, 2019, for ascertainment of outcomes. Vaccine effectiveness against suspected, culture-confirmed, and XDR S Typhi was calculated. FINDINGS: 23 407 children from the census registry and surveillance system were included in the vaccine effectiveness analysis. 13 436 (57·4%) children were vaccinated, 12 214 (52·2%) were male, and 10 168 (43·4%) were aged 6-59 months. 5378 (23·0%) of 23 407 children had suspected S Typhi, among whom 775 (14·4%) had culture-confirmed S Typhi and 361 (68·6%) of 526 had XDR S Typhi. Vaccine effectiveness was 55% (95% CI 52-57) against suspected S Typhi (regardless of culture confirmation), 95% (93-96) against culture-confirmed S Typhi, and 97% (95-98) against XDR S Typhi. INTERPRETATION: Typbar-TCV is effective in protecting children against S Typhi infection in an outbreak setting, and was able, with moderate deployment, to curtail a major XDR S Typhi outbreak in a densely populated setting. The vaccine shows efficacy against S Typhi irrespective of antimicrobial resistance. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Safety and immunogenicity of Vi-typhoid conjugate vaccine co-administration with routine 9-month vaccination in Burkina Faso: A randomized controlled phase 2 trial.

OBJECTIVES: In 2017, the World Health Organisation (WHO) pre-qualified a single-dose typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) and identified TCV co-administration studies as a research priority. Accordingly, we tested co-administration of Typbar TCV® (Bharat Biotech International) with measles-rubella (MR) and yellow fever (YF) vaccines. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, and controlled, phase 2 trial in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Healthy children aged 9-11 months were randomized 1:1 to receive TCV (Group 1) or control vaccine (inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), Group 2). Vaccines were administered intramuscularly with routine MR and YF vaccines. Safety was assessed by (1) local and systemic reactions on days 0, 3, and 7; (2) unsolicited adverse events within 28 days; and (3) serious adverse events (SAEs) within six months after immunization. RESULTS: We enrolled, randomized, and vaccinated 100 eligible children (49 Group 1 and 51 Group 2). Safety outcomes occurred with similar frequency in both groups: local/solicited reactions (Group 1: 1/49, Group 2: 3/50), systemic/solicited reactions (Group 1: 4/49, Group 2: 9/50), unsolicited adverse events (Group 1: 26/49, Group 2: 33/51), and SAEs (Group 1: 2/49, Group 2: 3/51). TCV conferred robust immunogenicity without interference with MR or YF vaccines. CONCLUSION: TCV can be safely co-administered with MR and YF vaccines to children at the 9-month vaccination visit.

Multi-epitope DnaK peptide vaccine accords protection against lethal S. typhimurium challenge: Elicits both cell mediated immunity and long-lasting serum-neutralizing antibody titers.

Typhoid vaccine development has been impeded by inability of currently available vaccines to induce cellular immunity along with neutralizing antibodies against all serovars of S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi. Unfortunately, antibiotic treatment has shown to be an ineffective therapy due to development of resistance against multiple antibiotics. In the present study, we have explored the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of in-silico designed multi-epitope DnaK peptides as candidate vaccine molecules against Salmonella. Immunization studies in mouse typhoid model revealed three of these peptides (DP1, DP5 and DP7) are highly efficacious, stimulating both humoral and cell mediated immunity along with long lasting antibody memory response. There was significant increase in antibody titers (IgG, IgG1, IgG2a, IgA and IgM), lymphocyte proliferative responses and cytokine levels. Immunized groups showed marked reduction in organ bacterial load, fecal shedding and pronounced protection (upto 80%) as compared to unimmunized controls after challenge with S. typhimurium. Our results demonstrate the huge potential of DnaK peptide vaccine candidates (DP1, DP5 and DP7) to accord protective immunity with significant increase in survivability against Salmonella infection in mice, thus commending these molecules as promising agents to tackle typhoid.

Vaccine development for emerging infectious diseases.

Examination of the vaccine strategies and technical platforms used for the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of those used for previous emerging and reemerging infectious diseases and pandemics may offer some mutually beneficial lessons. The unprecedented scale and rapidity of dissemination of recent emerging infectious diseases pose new challenges for vaccine developers, regulators, health authorities and political constituencies. Vaccine manufacturing and distribution are complex and challenging. While speed is essential, clinical development to emergency use authorization and licensure, pharmacovigilance of vaccine safety and surveillance of virus variants are also critical. Access to vaccines and vaccination needs to be prioritized in low- and middle-income countries. The combination of these factors will weigh heavily on the ultimate success of efforts to bring the current and any future emerging infectious disease pandemics to a close.

Typhoid in India: An Age-old Problem With an Existing Solution.

Enteric fever continues to impact millions of people who lack adequate access to clean water and sanitation. The typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden in South Asia is broadly acknowledged, but current estimates of incidence, severity, and cost of illness from India are lacking. This supplement addresses this gap in our knowledge, presenting findings from two years of surveillance, conducted at multiple sites between October 2017 and February 2020, in the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in India (SEFI) network. Results provide contemporaneous evidence of high disease burden and cost of illness-the latter borne largely by patients in the absence of universal healthcare coverage in India. Against a backdrop of immediate priorities in the COVID-19 pandemic, these data are a reminder that typhoid, though often forgotten, remains a public health problem in India. Typhoid conjugate vaccines, produced by multiple Indian manufacturers, and recommended for use in high burden settings, ensure that the tools to tackle typhoid are an immediately available solution to this public health problem.

Vi-specific serological correlates of protection for typhoid fever.

Typhoid Vi vaccines have been shown to be efficacious in children living in endemic regions; however, a widely accepted correlate of protection remains to be established. We applied a systems serology approach to identify Vi-specific serological correlates of protection using samples obtained from participants enrolled in an experimental controlled human infection study. Participants were vaccinated with Vi-tetanus toxoid conjugate (Vi-TT) or unconjugated Vi-polysaccharide (Vi-PS) vaccines and were subsequently challenged with Salmonella Typhi bacteria. Multivariate analyses identified distinct protective signatures for Vi-TT and Vi-PS vaccines in addition to shared features that predicted protection across both groups. Vi IgA quantity and avidity correlated with protection from S. Typhi infection, whereas higher fold increases in Vi IgG responses were associated with reduced disease severity. Targeted antibody-mediated functional responses, particularly neutrophil phagocytosis, were also identified as important components of the protective signature. These humoral markers could be used to evaluate and develop efficacious Vi-conjugate vaccines and assist with accelerating vaccine availability to typhoid-endemic regions.

Safety and immunogenicity of co-administration of meningococcal type A and measles-rubella vaccines with typhoid conjugate vaccine in children aged 15-23 months in Burkina Faso.

OBJECTIVES: The World Health Organization pre-qualified single-dose typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) and requested data on co-administration with routine vaccines. The co-administration of Typbar TCV (Bharat Biotech International) with routine group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV-A) and measles-rubella (MR) vaccine was tested. METHODS: This was a double-blind, randomized controlled trial performed in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Children were recruited at the 15-month vaccination visit and were assigned randomly (1:1:1) to three groups. Group 1 children received TCV plus control vaccine (inactivated polio vaccine) and MCV-A 28 days later; group 2 children received TCV and MCV-A; group 3 children received MCV-A and control vaccine. Routine MR vaccine was administered to all participants. Safety was assessed at 0, 3, and 7 days after immunization, and unsolicited adverse events and serious adverse events were assessed for 28 days and 6 months after immunization, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 150 children were recruited and vaccinated. Solicited symptoms were infrequent and similar for TCV and control recipients, as were adverse events (group 1, 61.2%; group 2, 64.0%; group 3, 68.6%) and serious adverse events (group 1, 2.0%; group 2, 8.0%; group 3, 5.9%). TCV generated robust immunity without interference with MCV-A vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: TCV can be safely co-administered at 15 months with MCV-A without interference. This novel study on the co-administration of TCV with MCV-A provides data to support large-scale uptake in sub-Saharan Africa.

Immunogenicity and Safety of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine in Healthy Indian Subjects: A Randomized, Active-controlled, Comparative Clinical Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the immunogenicity and safety of an investigational typhoid Vi conjugate vaccine (Test TCV) with a marketed typhoid Vi conjugate vaccine (Comparator TCV). DESIGN: Randomized, controlled trial. SETTING: Tertiary care and multispecialty hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: 240 healthy subjects of 6 months to 45 years. Pediatric (<18 years) subjects were enrolled after day 21 safety assessment of adult subjects. INTERVENTION: Participants received a single-dose of test TCV or comparator TCV at baseline and were followed up for 6 weeks post-vaccination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Primary variable was to demonstrate non-inferiority of the test TCV with the comparator TCV for seroconversion post-vaccination (³4-fold rise in antibody titre). Secondary variables were seroconversion in the adult and pediatric cohorts, and geometric mean titre of antibodies while the safety was based on reported adverse events. RESULTS: A total of 117 subjects (Adult-58, Pediatric-59) and 119 subjects (Adult-60, Pediatric-59) in test and comparator group, respectively completed the study. The seroconversion rate with test TCV (overall-94.8%, adult-96.6% and pediatric-93.1%) was non-inferior to comparator TCV (overall-91.6%, adult-91.7% and pediatric-91.5%). The geometric mean titres of antibodies (EU/mL) at baseline (test TCV: overall-7.6, adult-10.0, and pediatric-5.7; and comparator TCV: overall-8.0, adult-12.0, and pediatric-5.3) and at end of study (test TCV: overall-1121.0, adult-1411.0 and pediatric-891.1; and comparator TCV: overall-1104.0, adult-1199.0 and pediatric-1014.0) were also comparable between the groups (P>0.05 for all). The most common adverse event was injection-site pain followed by fever in both the groups. CONCLUSIONS: The immunogenicity and safety of test TCV is comparable to already marketed comparator TCV.

Evaluation of a standardised Vi poly-l-lysine ELISA for serology of Vi capsular polysaccharide antibodies.

Typhoid vaccines based on protein-conjugated capsular Vi polysaccharide (TCVs) prevent typhoid in infants and young children. Analysis of the serum anti-Vi IgG response following immunisation against typhoid confirms the immunogenicity of TCVs and forms an important part of the pathway to licensing. Comparative studies could expedite the licencing process, and the availability of a standardised ELISA method alongside the 1st International Standard (IS) 16/138 for anti-typhoid capsular Vi polysaccharide IgG (human) will facilitate this process. To this end, a non-commercial ELISA based on a coat of Vi and poly-l-lysine (Vi-PLL ELISA) was evaluated by 10 laboratories. Eight serum samples, including IS 16/138, were tested in the standardised Vi-PLL ELISA (n = 10), a commercial Vi ELISA (n = 3) and a biotinylated Vi ELISA (n = 1). Valid estimates of potencies relative to IS 16/138 were obtained for all samples in the Vi-PLL ELISA and the commercial ELISA, with good repeatability and reproducibility evident from the study results and concordant estimates obtained by the two ELISA methods. The study demonstrates that the Vi-PLL ELISA can be used in clinical trial studies to determine the immunogenicity of TCVs.

Modulation of immune response and enhanced clearance of Salmonella typhi by delivery of Vi polysaccharide conjugate using PLA nanoparticles.

Polysaccharide antigens do not promote antibody class switching and memory antibody response, thus require conjugation with a T cell dependent carrier protein to generate protective immune response. The intensity of immune responses varies with the carrier proteins for the same carbohydrate antigen and most of the carrier proteins do not generate strong immune responses. Vi polysaccharide and r-flagellin of Salmonella typhi were conjugated and formulated in PLA particles as nanoglycoconjugate which not only generated strong immune response but also promoted antibody class switching and elicited memory antibody response from single point immunization. Nanoglycoconjugate immunization also modulate anti-inflammatory property of Vi polysaccharide with an enhance secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokine TNF-α and IL-6. This was with concomitant decrease of IFN-γ production, antibody class switching from IgG3 to IgG2 with memory antibody generation against Vi polysaccharide. Antibody elicited by nanoglycoconjugate showed better opsonization and clearance of Salmonella typhi in THP-1 macrophages as compared to Vi-flagellin glycoconjugate and Vi TT (Typhbar®). Delivery of glycoconjugate through nanoparticles provides a platform technology for improving the immunogenicity of polysaccharide based vaccines.

Salmonella Typhoid Toxin PltB Subunit and Its Non-typhoidal Salmonella Ortholog Confer Differential Host Adaptation and Virulence.

Typhoidal and non-typhoidal Salmonelleae (NTS) cause typhoid fever and gastroenteritis, respectively, in humans. Salmonella typhoid toxin contributes to typhoid disease progression and chronic infection, but little is known about the role of its NTS ortholog. We found that typhoid toxin and its NTS ortholog induce different clinical presentations. The PltB subunit of each toxin exhibits different glycan-binding preferences that correlate with glycan expression profiles of host cells targeted by each bacterium at the primary infection or intoxication sites. Through co-crystal structures of PltB subunits bound to specific glycan receptor moieties, we show that they induce markedly different glycan-binding preferences and virulence outcomes. Furthermore, immunization with the NTS S. Javiana or its toxin offers cross-reactive protection against lethal-dose typhoid toxin challenge. Cumulatively, these results offer insights into the evolution of host adaptations in Salmonella AB toxins, their cell and tissue tropisms, and the design for improved typhoid vaccines and therapeutics.

Progress in the overall understanding of typhoid fever: implications for vaccine development.

INTRODUCTION: Typhoid fever continues to have a substantial impact on human health, especially in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Access to safe water, and adequate sanitation and hygiene remain the cornerstone of prevention, but these are not widely available in many impoverished settings. The emergence of antibiotic resistance affects typhoid treatment and adds urgency to typhoid control efforts. Vaccines provide opportunities to prevent and control typhoid fever in endemic settings. AREAS COVERED: Literature search was performed looking for evidence concerning the global burden of typhoid and strategies for the prevention and treatment of typhoid fever. Cost of illness, available typhoid and paratyphoid vaccines and cost-effectiveness were also reviewed. The objective was to provide a critical overview of typhoid fever, in order to assess the current understanding and potential future directions for typhoid treatment and control. EXPERT COMMENTARY: Our understanding of typhoid burden and methods of prevention has grown over recent years. However, typhoid fever still has a significant impact on health in low and middle-income countries. Introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines to the immunization schedule is expected to make a major contribution to control of typhoid fever in endemic countries, although vaccination alone is unlikely to eliminate the disease.