Public Mass Shootings: Counterfactual Trend Analysis of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban.

Background: Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects. Objective: This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022. Methods: We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place. Results: The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB. Conclusions: The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings.

A machine-learning prediction model to identify risk of firearm injury using electronic health records data.

IMPORTANCE: Firearm injuries constitute a public health crisis. At the healthcare encounter level, they are, however, rare events. OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model to identify healthcare encounters of adult patients at increased risk of firearm injury to target screening and prevention efforts. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Electronic health records data from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) were used to identify healthcare encounters of patients with fatal and non-fatal firearm injuries, as well as healthcare visits of a sample of matched controls during 2010-2018. More than 170 predictors, including diagnoses, healthcare utilization, and neighborhood characteristics were identified. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a split sample design were used to train and test a model that predicted risk of firearm injury within the next 3 years at the encounter level. RESULTS: A total of 3879 firearm injuries were identified among 5 288 529 KPSC adult members. Prevalence at the healthcare encounter level was 0.01%. The 15 most important predictors included demographics, healthcare utilization, and neighborhood-level socio-economic factors. The sensitivity and specificity of the final model were 0.83 and 0.56, respectively. A very high-risk group (top 1% of predicted risk) yielded a positive predictive value of 0.14% and sensitivity of 13%. This high-risk group potentially reduces screening burden by a factor of 11.7, compared to universal screening. Results for alternative probability cutoffs are presented. DISCUSSION: Our model can support more targeted screening in healthcare settings, resulting in improved efficiency of firearm injury risk assessment and prevention efforts.

Linking Data on Nonfatal Firearm Injuries in Youths to Assess Disease Burden.

This cross-sectional study estimates the incidence of nonfatal firearm injuries among children and young adults after linking patient-level police and trauma registry data.

Fallacy of attributing the U.S. firearm mortality epidemic to mental health.

BACKGROUND: Annual global data on mental disorders prevalence and firearm death rates for 2000-2019, enables the U.S. to be compared with comparable counties for these metrics. METHODS: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Burden data were used to compare the prevalence of mental disorders with overall, homicide and suicide firearm death rates including homicides and suicides, in high sociodemographic (SDI) countries. RESULTS: Overall and in none of the nine major categories of mental disorders did the U.S. have a statistically-significant higher rate than any of 40 other high SDI countries during 2019, the last year of available data. During the same year, the U.S. had a statistically-significant higher rate of all deaths, homicides, and suicides by firearm (all p<<0.001) than all other 40 high SDI countries. Suicides accounted for most of the firearm death rate differences between the U.S. and other high SDI countries, and yet the prevalence of mental health disorders associated with suicide were not significantly difference between the U.S. and other high SDI countries. CONCLUSION: Mental disorder prevalence in the U.S. is similar in all major categories to its 40 comparable sociodemographic countries, including mental health disorders primarily associated with suicide. It cannot therefore explain the country's strikingly higher firearm death rate, including suicide. Reducing firearm prevalence, which is correlated with the country's firearm death rate, is a logical solution that has been applied by other countries.

Universal Background Checks, Permit Requirements, and Firearm Homicide Rates.

Importance: A loophole in US gun policy is that people can purchase guns from private sellers without going through any background check. Some states have addressed this loophole by requiring universal background checks for all gun sales, either at the point of sale or through a permit system; however, most studies on the effectiveness of universal background checks have not analyzed these 2 policy mechanisms separately. Objective: To assess the association of point-of-sale background check law and gun permit law, separately, with firearm homicide rates from 1976 through 2022 using the same methods and model specification. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used a difference-in-differences, fixed-effects regression model to evaluate firearm laws and firearm homicide rates in 48 states from 1976 through 2022. Data were obtained for 48 states except New Hampshire and Vermont and were analyzed in January 2024. Exposures: Implementation of either the law requiring a universal background check at point of sale for all firearms without a permit or the laws combining universal background checks and a state permit requirement for all gun purchasers. Main Outcomes and Measures: Annual, state-specific rates of firearm homicide per 100 000 people. Results: From 1976 through 2022, 12 states adopted the universal background check laws without permitting requirements and 7 states implemented gun permit laws covering all firearms. The mean (SD) firearm homicide rate was 4.3 (0.1) per 100 000 people. Universal background checks for all firearms alone (without a state permitting system) were not associated with overall homicide rates (percentage change, 1.3%; 95% CI, -6.9% to 10.4%) or firearm homicide rates (percentage change, 3.7%; 95% CI, -5.3% to 13.6%). A law requiring a permit for the purchase of all firearms was associated with significantly lower overall homicide rates (percentage change, -15.4%; 95% CI, -28.5% to -0.01%) and firearm homicide rates (percentage change, -18.3%; 95% CI, -32.0% to -1.9%). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that universal background checks alone were not associated with firearm homicide rates, but a permit requirement for the purchase and possession of firearms was associated with substantially reduced rates of firearm homicide. The findings suggest that combining universal background checks and permit-to-purchase requirements is an effective strategy for firearm-related fatality reduction.

Deer Hunting Season and Firearm Violence in US Rural Counties.

Importance: Firearm violence is a major public health problem in the US. However, relatively little research has focused particular attention on firearm violence in rural areas, and few studies have used research designs that draw on exogenous variation in the prevalence of firearms to estimate the association between firearm presence and shootings. Objective: To investigate the association between the start of deer hunting season and shootings in rural counties in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, data from all rural US counties in states with available data on the timing of deer hunting season were matched with data on shootings from the Gun Violence Archive from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2021. Exposure: Shootings in the first 3 weeks of deer hunting season were compared with the week prior to the start of deer hunting season. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was daily total shootings. The association between the start of deer hunting season and shootings was estimated using Poisson regression models to analyze change within counties while controlling for relevant calendar year, month of year, and seasonal effects. Results: The sample included 854 rural counties with a mean (SD) population of 16 416 (18 329) per county and 5.4 (13.3) annual shootings per 100 000 people. The county fixed-effects specification analyzing the association between deer hunting season and shootings showed that relative to the week prior to deer hunting season, the incidence rate ratio for total shootings was 1.49 (95% CI, 1.13-1.95) for the first week of deer hunting season and 1.41 (95% CI, 1.02-1.94) for the second week of deer hunting season. Estimates remained consistent when excluding hunting accidents and were most pronounced in states with more hunting licenses per capita. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of the association between the start of deer hunting season and firearm violence, results showed that the start of deer hunting season was associated with a substantial increase in shootings. The findings highlight the role of firearm prevalence in gun violence and suggest the need for focused policies designed to reduce firearm violence in areas with substantial hunting activity during the first weeks of deer hunting season.

Epidemiology of civilian's gunshot wound injuries admitted to intensive care unit: A retrospective, multi-center study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies investigated the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) for gunshot wounds (GSW). The purpose of this study was to determine the 28-day mortality, and to analyze the impact of variables on the mortality of patients admitted to ICU with GSW in four French University Hospitals level-1 regional trauma centers. METHOD: All medical files of adult patients (above fifteen years old) admitted to four French University Hospitals level-1 regional trauma centers for GSW were retrospectively analyzed from January 1st 2015 to June 30th 2021. The primary aim was to determine 28-day death rate of patients admitted in ICU for GSW. The secondary aim was to describe biological parameters, injuries and management of patients admitted to our ICUs, and to identify the variables associated with the 28-day mortality rate. A multivariate analysis allowed determining independent mortality factors. A Kaplan-Meier analysis compared mortality according to head injury. RESULTS: Among 17,262 patients screened, 173 (1 %) were admitted for GSW and 162 were analyzed. The 28-day mortality rate was 24.7 %. 77.5 % of deaths occurred within the first 48 h after ICU admission, and 87.5 % of deaths within three days of ICU admission. The 28-day death rate of patients with head injury was significantly higher as compared to patients without head injury (p < 0.001). Out of forty deaths, twenty-three (57.5 %) were due to head injury, and nine (22.5 %) were due to bleeding. The mechanisms were assault (45.1 %), suicide (34.6 %), accident (4.9 %) and unidentified (15.4 %). In a multivariate analysis, variables associated with the 28-day death rate were age, pre-hospital Glasgow coma score, and Injury Severity Score. CONCLUSION: GSW represented 1 % of ICU admission. The 28-day mortality rate was 24.7 %. 77.5 % of deaths occurred within the first 48 h due to head injuries and bleeding. Head injuries were associated with significantly higher mortality rate.

Temporal trends in female firearm homicides across states in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 2000-2019. / Tendência temporal da mortalidade por homicídios femininos por arma de fogo nos estados da região Nordeste do Brasil no período 2000-2019.

This article aims to analyze temporal trends in female firearm homicides in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 2000-2019. We conducted an ecological study using data on firearm homicides of women aged 10 years and over obtained from the Mortality Information System. The population data were taken from the 2010 Census. Homicide rates were calculated after correcting the data to account for differences in the quality and coverage of death records. Trends were assessed using negative binomial regression and described using relative risk and p values. Average annual percentage changes in homicide rates were also calculated. The regional firearm homicide rate during the study period was 4.40 per 100,000 women. Rates were highest in the state of Alagoas (5.40), the 15-19 age group (5.84) and in public thoroughfares (1.58). Trends were upward across all states except Pernambuco, where they were downward, and Alagoas, where rates were stationary. The place of occurrence with the highest percentage increase in firearm homicides over the study period was public thoroughfares. Female firearm homicides showed an upward trend across most northeastern states.

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a tendência temporal dos homicídios femininos perpetrados por arma de fogo nos estados nordestinos, no período de 2000 a 2019. Estudo ecológico, com dados de homicídios por arma de fogo em mulheres com 10 ou mais anos, registrados no Sistema de Informação Sobre Mortalidade. Os dados de mortalidade e os dados populacionais foram obtidos junto ao Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Após a correção dos registros de óbito para qualidade e cobertura dos óbitos, as taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas Tendências foram avaliadas por regressão binomial negativa, classificadas de acordo com o valor do risco relativo e valor de p. Calculou-se a variação percentual anual média das taxas de mortalidade. A região apresentou 4,40 homicídios por arma de fogo por 100 mil mulheres no período do estudo, maiores coeficientes em Alagoas (5,40), na faixa etária de 15-19 anos (5,84), e via pública (1,58). As tendências foram ascendentes, com exceção de Pernambuco em que foi descendente, e estacionárias em Alagoas. Os homicídios por arma de fogo em via pública apresentaram maior percentual de aumento no período estudado. Observou-se tendência ascendente nos homicídios femininos perpetrados por arma de fogo na maioria dos estados nordestinos.

Preinjury and Event-Related Characteristics of Pediatric Firearm Injuries: The American College of Surgeons Firearm Study, United States, March 2021‒February 2022.

Objectives. To assess differences in contextual factors by intent among pediatric firearm injury patients and determine factors associated with data missingness. Methods. We retrospectively queried the American College of Surgeons Firearm Study database (March 1, 2021-February 28, 2022) for patients aged 18 years or younger. We stratified preinjury, firearm-related, and event-related factors by intent and compared them by using Fisher exact, χ2, or 1-way analysis of variance testing. Secondary analysis estimated the adjusted odds of missingness by using generalized linear modeling with binominal logit link. Results. Among 17 395 patients, 2974 (17.1%) were aged 18 years or younger; 1966 (66.1%) were injured by assault, 579 (19.5%) unintentionally, and 76 (2.6%) by self-inflicted means. Most contextual factors differed by intent, including proportion of youths with previous adverse childhood experiences, mental illness, and violent assaults or injury, firearm type and access, perpetrator relationship, and injury location. In adjusted analyses, age, trauma center designation, intent, and admission status were associated with missingness. Conclusions. Contextual factors related to pediatric firearm injury vary by intent. Specific predictors associated with missingness may inform improved future data collection. Public Health Implications. Contextual factors related to pediatric firearm injury can be obtained in a systematic manner nationally to inform targeted interventions. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(10):1097-1109. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307754).

Gunshot injuries in Central Europe - Epidemiology and outcome in Germany, Switzerland and Austria - an analysis based on the TraumaRegister DGU®.

BACKGROUND: Firearms are of special interest in trauma research due to high lethality and criminal value. Strong correlation between guns per capita and fire-arm related deaths has been shown. Most of existing literature regarding gun-shot fatalities are from the U.S. and data for Central Europe is lacking. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the legal frameworks regarding gun-ownership in Germany (DE), Austria (A) and Switzerland (CH), and to retrospectively analyze data from the TraumaRegister DGU® regarding the epidemiology, injury severity, intention and outcome of gunshot-related deaths in these countries. METHODS: All patients from TR-DGU who sustained a gunshot injury in the time period from 1st January 2009 to 31st December 2019 were considered for analysis. Only cases admitted to level 1 or 2 trauma center in Germany, Switzerland, or Austria were included. Predicted mortality was calculated using the RISC-II. Further, the legal framework for firearm posession were explored. RESULTS: The legal frameworks do not differ significantly between the countries. However, only ex-military men from Switzerland are allowed to keep their automatic (military) weapon at home. We assessed 1312 gunshot fatalities (DE 1,099, A 111, CH 102) of which most were due to suspected suicide (A 72.1 %, CH 64.7 %, and DE 56.6 %, p = 0.003). Act of suspected violent crime or accidental gunshots were rare in all three countries. Amongst all gunshot fatalities, Austria showed the highest mean age (57.6 years), followed by DE (53.4 years) and CH (49.4 years; p < 0.01). Gunshot fatalities amongst all assessed countries due to suspected suicide showed a peak at the age of 60 years and above, whereas suspected violent crime delicts with gunshots were mainly seen in younger age groups. The highest mortality was found in suspected suicide cases, showing a mortality of 82.1 % (predicted 65.2 %) in Switzerland, 75.3 % (predicted 65.8 %) in Austria and 63.7 % (predicted 56.2 %) in Germany. CONCLUSION: Gunshot wounds are still rare in central Europe, but gunshot-related suicide rates are high. Gun ownership laws may have an impact on gunshot wounds due to suspected suicide. Injury patterns differ compared to countries where a high incidence of gun ownership is seen.

A Decade of Firearm Injuries: Children Caught in the Crossfire.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm injuries (FIs) are the leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in pediatric patients. In this study, we aim to define evolving trends and avenues for prevention. METHODS: Following institutional review board approval, medical records of patients presenting to our two State-Designated Level 1 Pediatric Trauma Centers for treatment of FIs from 2010 to 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Data was analyzed with Chi-Squared and Student's t-test; P-value <0.05 was significant. RESULTS: 1037 FI encounters from 1005 unique patients aged 0-21 y were included. 70.4% (n = 730) were determined to be assaults, 26.1% (n = 271) unintentional, and 1.7% (n = 18) self-inflicted injuries. Overall mortality was 4.5% (n = 45). FI victims were most commonly African American (n = 836, 80.6%), male (n = 869, 83.8%), aged 13-17 (n = 753, 72.6%), and from single-parent families (n = 647, 62.4%). The incidence of FIs increased significantly over the last 5 y of the study (2010-2014, 6.8 FIs/month), compared to 2015-2019 (averaging 10.6 FIs/month, P < 0.0001). Concurrently, FI related fatality increased from an average of 2.6 deaths/year (2010-2014) to 6.4 deaths/year (2015-2019, P = 0.064). Results were subanalyzed for pediatric patients aged 0-14 y. For the entire cohort, 12.1% (n = 116) recidivists were identified. Geographic patterns of injury were identified, with 75% of all FIs clustered in a single urban region. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of pediatric FIs is increasing in recent years, with high mortality rates. Violence and recidivism are geographically concentrated, offering an opportunity for targeted interventions.

Community-Level Disadvantage of Adults With Firearm- vs Motor Vehicle-Related Injuries.

Importance: Motor vehicle crash (MVC) and firearm injuries are 2 of the top 3 mechanisms of adult injury-related deaths in the US. Objective: To understand the differing associations between community-level disadvantage and firearm vs MVC injuries to inform mechanism-specific prevention strategies and appropriate postdischarge resource allocation. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter cross-sectional study analyzed prospectively collected data from the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Firearm Study. Included patients were treated either for firearm injury between March 1, 2021, and February 28, 2022, or for MVC-related injuries between January 1 and December 31, 2021, at 1 of 128 participating ACS trauma centers. Exposures: Community distress. Main outcome and Measure: Odds of presenting with a firearm as compared with MVC injury based on levels of community distress, as measured by the Distressed Communities Index (DCI) and categorized in quintiles. Results: A total of 62 981 patients were included (mean [SD] age, 42.9 [17.7] years; 42 388 male [67.3%]; 17 737 Black [28.2%], 9052 Hispanic [14.4%], 36 425 White [57.8%]) from 104 trauma centers. By type, there were 53 474 patients treated for MVC injuries and 9507 treated for firearm injuries. Patients with firearm injuries were younger (median [IQR] age, 31.0 [24.0-40.0] years vs 41.0 [29.0-58.0] years); more likely to be male (7892 of 9507 [83.0%] vs 34 496 of 53 474 [64.5%]), identified as Black (5486 of 9507 [57.7%] vs 12 251 of 53 474 [22.9%]), and Medicaid insured or uninsured (6819 of 9507 [71.7%] vs 21 310 of 53 474 [39.9%]); and had a higher DCI score (median [IQR] score, 74.0 [53.2-94.8] vs 58.0 [33.0-83.0]) than MVC injured patients. Among admitted patients, the odds of presenting with a firearm injury compared with MVC injury were 1.50 (95% CI, 1.35-1.66) times higher for patients living in the most distressed vs least distressed ZIP codes. After controlling for age, sex, race, ethnicity, and payer type, the DCI components associated with the highest adjusted odds of presenting with a firearm injury were a high housing vacancy rate (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04-1.19) and high poverty rate (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.10-1.24). Among patients sustaining firearm injuries patients, 4333 (54.3%) received no referrals for postdischarge rehabilitation, home health, or psychosocial services. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of adults with firearm- and motor vehicle-related injuries, we found that patients from highly distressed communities had higher odds of presenting to a trauma center with a firearm injury as opposed to an MVC injury. With two-thirds of firearm injury survivors treated at trauma centers being discharged without psychosocial services, community-level measures of disadvantage may be useful for allocating postdischarge care resources to patients with the greatest need.

US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy: Firearm Violence Is a Public Health Crisis.

This Medical News article is an interview with US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, MD, MBA, and JAMA Editor in Chief Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, PhD, MD, MAS, about a new advisory that declares gun violence a public health crisis.

Impact of injury mechanism on early wound closure in patients with acute conflict-related extremity wounds: A prospective cohort analysis from two civilian hospitals in Iraq and Jordan.

BACKGROUND: Gunshots and bomb blasts are important causes of extremity injuries in conflict zones, yet little research exists on the characteristics and outcomes of these injuries in civilian populations. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort analysis utilizing data from a randomized trial conducted at two civilian hospitals in Jordan and Iraq in 2015-2019. Adults who presented ≤72 h of sustaining an extremity injury were included. We used mechanism of injury (gunshot/bomb blast) as the exposure and wound closure by day 5 as the primary outcome measure. RESULTS: The population predominantly comprised young men (n = 163, 94% male, and median age 29 years) injured by gunshots (61%) or bomb blasts (39%). Compared with the gunshot group, more participants in the bomb blast group had concomitant injuries (32/63 [51%] vs. 11/100 [11%], p < 0.001) and vascular injuries (9/63 [14%] vs. 4/100 [4%], p = 0.02). The wounds were larger in the bomb blast group compared with the gunshot group (median area 86 cm2 [IQR 24-161] vs. 21 cm2 [IQR 7-57], p < 0.001). Compared with the bomb blast group, significantly more participants in the gunshot group achieved wound closure by day 5 (74/100 [74%] vs. 16/63 [25%], p < 0.001). This difference remained after controlling for confounding factors (odds ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval 1.6-13.7). CONCLUSIONS: In civilians with conflict-related extremity injuries, bomb blast wounds had a lower likelihood of achieving closure within 5 days than gunshot wounds, independent of other factors, such as wound size and vascular injuries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02444598. Registered 14-05-2015, https://classic. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/ct2/show/NCT02444598.

Epidemiology of Pediatric Firearm Injuries in the United States: The Progression of Gunshot Injury Rates Through the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: Ballistic injuries among pediatric populations have become a public health crisis in the United States. The surge in firearm injuries among children has outpaced other causes of death. This study aims to assess the trend in pediatric gunshot injuries (GSIs) over the last decade and investigate the impact, if any, of the pandemic on GSIs statistics. METHODS: A comprehensive retrospective analysis was conducted using a federated, real-time national database. A total of 15,267,921 children without GSIs and 6261 children with GSIs between 2017 and 2023 were identified. The study evaluated the incidence and annual proportions of GSIs among different demographics. In addition, the incidence proportions per 100,000 for accidental, nonaccidental, fracture-related, and fatal GSIs were analyzed. RESULTS: The incidence proportions per 100,000 for GSIs, accidental GSIs, nonaccidental GSIs, fatal GSIs, wheelchair-bound cases, and fracture-related GSIs increased significantly from 2017 to 2023, going from 9.7 to 22.8 (Relative Risk: 2.342, 95% CI: 2.041, 2.687 , P < 0.001). The overall increase was mostly a result of accidental GSI when compared with nonaccidental (incidence proportion 25.8 vs 2.1; P < 0.001) in 2021 at the height of the pandemic. In patients with an accidental GSI, the incidence proportion per 100k between 2017 and 2023 increased from 8.81 to 21.11 (Relative Risk: 2.397, 95% CI: 2.076, 2.768, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The study supports the shift in the leading cause of death among children from motor vehicle accidents to GSIs, with the continued rise in rates despite the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Accidental injuries constituted the majority of GSIs, indicating the need for enhanced gun safety measures, including requirements for gun storage, keeping firearms locked and unloaded, requiring child supervision in homes with guns, and enforcing stricter punishments as penalties. Comprehensive efforts are required to address this public health crisis. Pediatricians play a vital role in counseling and educating families on firearm safety. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.

Firearm Ownership: A Key Factor to Consider in Firearm Suicide Deaths in Children, Despite State Gun Laws.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm-related suicides among children present a significant public health concern and a tragic loss of young lives. This study explores the relationship between firearm-related suicides, gun ownership, and state-specific gun laws. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study collected data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research on children under 18 who died by firearm-related suicides between 2009 and 2016 in all 50 states and D.C. It also utilized data from the RAND State-Level Estimates of Household Firearm Ownership. The study focused on the rate of child firearm suicide deaths per 100,000 individuals. The key variable of interest was the percentage of guns owned per household in each state. Univariable analysis was conducted to examine the association between individual gun laws and child firearm suicide mortalities, while multivariable regression, adjusting for household gun ownership and significant firearm legislation, was employed to assess connection to child firearm suicide mortality. RESULTS: From 2009 to 2016, 3903 children died from firearm-related suicides in the United States. In our analysis, 15 out of 44 firearm laws were found to be associated with reducing the rates of firearm suicides among children (P < 0.05). However, multivariable regression showed that higher state gun ownership rates were the primary predictor of increased child fatalities from firearms, with children in such states being 325% more likely to die when analyzing handgun laws and 337% more likely when analyzing long gun laws, as indicated by coefficients of 4.25 and 4.37, respectively. No state laws alone notably improved death rates. CONCLUSIONS: Gun ownership has a stronger association with child suicide rates than state-specific gun laws. Given the weight of gun ownership, future research should prioritize comprehensive public health initiatives to prevent child firearm-related suicides.

A Statistical Analysis of the Impact of Gun Ownership on Mass Shootings in the USA Between 2013 and 2022.

Mass shootings (incidents with four or more people shot in a single event, not including the shooter) are becoming more frequent in the United States, posing a significant threat to public health and safety in the country. In the current study, we intended to analyze the impact of state-level prevalence of gun ownership on mass shootings-both the frequency and severity of these events. We applied the negative binomial generalized linear mixed model to investigate the association between gun ownership rate, as measured by a proxy (i.e., the proportion of suicides committed with firearms to total suicides), and population-adjusted rates of mass shooting incidents and fatalities at the state level from 2013 to 2022. Gun ownership was found to be significantly associated with the rate of mass shooting fatalities. Specifically, our model indicated that for every 1-SD increase-that is, for every 12.5% increase-in gun ownership, the rate of mass shooting fatalities increased by 34% (p value < 0.001). However, no significant association was found between gun ownership and rate of mass shooting incidents. These findings suggest that restricting gun ownership (and therefore reducing availability to guns) may not decrease the number of mass shooting events, but it may save lives when these events occur.

U.S. Army mortality surveillance in active duty soldiers, 2014-2019.

Mortality surveillance is an important activity for capturing information on a population's health. This retrospective surveillance analysis utilizes administrative data sources to describe active duty U.S. Army soldiers who died from 2014 to 2019, and calculate mortality rates, assess trends by category of death, and identify leading causes of death within subpopulations. During the surveillance period, 2,530 soldier deaths were reported. The highest crude mortality rates observed during the 6-year surveillance period were for deaths by suicide, followed by accidental (i.e., unintentional injury) deaths. The crude mortality rates for natural deaths decreased significantly over the 6-year period, by an average of 6% annually. The leading causes of death were suicide by gunshot wound, motor vehicle accidents, suicide by hanging, neoplasms, and cardiovascular events. Significant differences were observed in the leading causes of death in relation to demographic characteristics, which has important implications for the development of focused educational campaigns to improve health behaviors and safe driving habits. Current public health programs to prevent suicide should be evaluated, with new approaches for firearm safety considered.