The roles of liquidity and delay in financial markets based on an optimal forecasting model.

We investigate the roles of liquidity and delay in financial markets through our proposed optimal forecasting model. The efficiency and liquidity of the financial market are examined using stochastic models that incorporate information delay. Based on machine learning, we estimate the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting price performances of the six proposed methods using the likelihood function and Bayesian methods, and the out-of-sample prediction performance is compared with the benchmark model ARIMA-GARCH. We discover that the forecasting price performance of the proposed simplified delay stochastic model is superior to that of the benchmark methods by the test methods of a variety of loss function, superior predictive ability test (SPA), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Using data from the Chinese stock market, the best forecasting model assesses the efficiency and liquidity of the financial market while accounting for information delay and trade probability. The rise in trade probability and delay time affects the stability of the return distribution and raises the risk, according to stochastic simulation. The empirical findings show that empirical and best forecasting approaches are compatible, that company size and liquidity (delay time) have an inverse relationship, and that delay time and liquidity have a nonlinear relationship. The most efficient have optimal liquidity.

Epidemiological survey of adult female stress urinary incontinence.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of stress urinary incontinence (SUI) in adult female in Taiyuan and what are the related risk factors are not clear. The aim of this study was to provide a basis for exploring the prevention and treatment of SUI in adult female in Taiyuan. METHODS: A voluntary online questionnaire was used to investigate adult female in the community and surrounding townships of Taiyuan. Most of the questionnaires refer to the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Female Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms, and adapt to the specific circumstances of the region. Data were analyzed using SPSS software (version 22.0). RESULTS: A total of 4004 eligible questionnaires were obtained. The prevalence of SUI in adult female in Taiyuan was 33.5%. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that place of residence, smoking, body mass index, diet, number of deliveries, mode of delivery, dystocia, menopause, oral contraceptives, urinary tract infection, making the bladder empty faster by pushing down and holding urine were risk factors for adult female stress urinary incontinence in Taiyuan. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of SUI in adult female in Taiyuan was high, and based on risk factors identified in this survey, population-level intervention strategies should be developed for the prevention and treatment of adult female SUI in Taiyuan.

Evidence for Cross-Species Transmission of Covert Mortality Nodavirus to New Host of Mugilogobius abei.

Viral covert mortality disease (VCMD), caused by covert mortality nodavirus (CMNV), is a newly emerging disease affecting most cultured shrimp and other crustaceans, but not fish. However, we discovered for the first time that Mugilogobius abei, a common marine fish collecting from shrimp farming ponds and surrounding coastal waters in China, was tested to be CMNV positive based on reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay. Further investigation based on the quantitative RT-LAMP assay indicated that 39% individuals of sampled M. abei were CMNV positive. Sequencing and alignment of sequences revealed that the partial RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene of CMNV isolated from M. abei shared 98% homology with that from the original CMNV isolates. Histopathological analysis showed that CMNV infection in M. abei could induce extensive skeletal muscle necrosis, nervous tissue vacuolation in retina of eye and cerebellum of brain. Positive signals were verified in skeletal muscle, eye, brain and intestine by in situ hybridization (ISH) with CMNV probes. Under transmission electron microscope (TEM), CMNV particles were further visualized in the cytoplasm of neurogliocytes, granulocytes and myocytes in the CMNV positive samples diagnosed by ISH. All findings suggested that CMNV, a typical alphanodavirus originated from shrimp, could switch their hosts to fish by cross-species transmission. Meanwhile, the results reminded us to pay close attention to the high risk of CMNV to use fish as intermediate or new host as well as potentially spread or cause epidemic among cultured marine fish.

[Habitat suitability index of larval Japanese Halfbeak (Hyporhamphus sajori) in Bohai Sea based on geographically weighted regression.] / åŸºäºŽåœ°ç†åŠ æƒå›žå½’çš„æ¸¤æµ·æ²™æ°ä¸‹é±µé±¼ä»”ç¨šé±¼æ –æ¯åœ°æŒ‡æ•°.

To investigate the early supplementary processes of fishre sources in the Bohai Sea, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) was introduced to the habitat suitability index (HSI) model. The Bohai Sea larval Japanese Halfbeak HSIGWR model was established with four environmental variables, including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), water depth (DEP), and chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a). Results of the simulation showed that the four variables had different performances in August 2015. SST and Chl a were global variables, and had little impacts on HSI, with the regression coefficients of -0.027 and 0.006, respectively. SSS and DEP were local variables, and had larger impacts on HSI, while the average values of absolute values of their regression coefficients were 0.075 and 0.129, respectively. In the central Bohai Sea, SSS showed a negative correlation with HSI, and the most negative correlation coefficient was -0.3. In contrast, SSS was correlated positively but weakly with HSI in the three bays of Bohai Sea, and the largest correlation coefficient was 0.1. In particular, DEP and HSI were negatively correlated in the entire Bohai Sea, while they were more negatively correlated in the three bays of Bohai than in the central Bohai Sea, and the most negative correlation coefficient was -0.16 in the three bays. The Poisson regression coefficient of the HSIGWR model was 0.705, consistent with field measurements. Therefore, it could provide a new method for the research on fish habitats in the future.