[Development of a predictive model of death or urgent hospitalization to identify frail elderly]. / Sviluppo di un modello predittivo di decesso o ricovero d'urgenza per l'individuazione degli anziani fragili.

OBJECTIVES: to develop and validate a predictive model of mortality or emergency hospitalization in all subjects aged 65 years and over. DESIGN: cohort study based on 9 different databases linked with each other. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the model was developed on the population aged 65 years and over resident at 01.01.2011 for at least two years in the city of Bologna (Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy); 96,000 persons were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the outcome was defined in case of emergency hospitalization or death during the one-year follow-up and studied with a logistic regression model. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated by using the area under the Roc curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the Brier score in the derivation sample (2/3 of the population). These tests were repeated in the validation sample (1/3 of the population) and in the population of Bologna aged 65 years and over on 01.01.2012, after applying the coefficients of the variables obtained in the derivation model. By using the regression coefficients, a frailty index (risk score) was calculated for each subject later categorized in risk classes. RESULTS: the model is composed of 28 variables and has good predictive abilities. The area under the Roc curve of the derivation sample is 0.77, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test is not significant, and the Brier score is 0.11. Similar performances are obtained in the other two samples. With increasing risk class, the mean age, number of hospitalizations, emergency room service consultations, and multiple drug prescriptions increase, while the average income decreases. CONCLUSION: the model has good predictive ability. The frailty index can be used to support a proactive medicine and stratify the population, plan clinical and preventive activities or identify the potential beneficiaries of specific health promotion projects.

A Randomized Controlled Trial of Tong Len Meditation Practice in Cancer Patients: Evaluation of a Distant Psychological Healing Effect.

CONTEXT: Tong Len meditation is an important therapeutic tool in the Tibetan medicine, and it can be used for self-healing and/or to heal others. Currently, in the West, there is no scientific study concerning the efficacy of a Tong Len distant healing effect on psychological disorders in cancer patients. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate a distant healing effect of Tong Len meditation on stress, anxiety, depression, fatigue, and self-perceived quality of life in cancer patients. These psychological objectives were chosen as a consequence of the limited scientific literature of present day. DESIGN: We performed a double-blind randomized controlled trial on 103 cancer patients with tumors. Overall, 12 meditators used Tong Len in aid of 52 patients randomly selected as experimental group, while the remaining 51 patients constituted the control group. Patients and meditators did not know each other. All patients completed profile of mood states (POMS) and European Quality of Life-5 dimensions (EQ-5D) questionnaires before treatment (T0), after two (T1) and three months of treatment (T2), and one month after treatment cessation (T3). RESULTS: With regard to the parameters related to depression, a statistically significant improvement (P = .003) was observed in the treatment group compared to controls. On the other hand, the vigor/activity parameter saw significant improvements in the control group (P = .009). Both groups exhibited significant improvements in the other factors assessed in the POMS and EQ-5D questionnaires. CONCLUSIONS: This study did not provide sufficient evidence supporting an efficacy of Tong Len meditation in distant psychological healing as compared to a control condition. The research highlighted some psychological improvements through Tong Len distant meditation in a group of patients unknown to meditators. Therefore, the enhancement detected in most parameters in both treatment and control groups raises interest on in-depth analysis and evaluation of distant meditation on cancer patients to mitigate psychological problems caused by the disease.

Vulnerability to heat-related mortality: a multicity, population-based, case-crossover analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although studies have documented increased mortality during heat waves, little information is available on the subgroups most susceptible to these effects. We evaluated the effects of summertime high temperature on daily mortality among population subgroups defined by demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and episodes of hospitalization for various conditions during the preceding 2 years. METHODS: We studied a total of 205,019 residents of 4 Italian cities (Bologna, Milan, Rome, and Turin) age 35 or older who died during 1997-2003. The case-crossover design was applied to evaluate the association between mean apparent temperature (same and previous day) and all-cause mortality. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of dying at 30 degrees C (apparent temperature) relative to 20 degrees C were estimated accounting for time, population changes, and air pollution. RESULTS: We found an overall OR of 1.34 (CI = 1.27-1.42) at 30 degrees C relative to 20 degrees C. The odds ratio increased with age and was higher among women (OR = 1.45; 1.37-1.52) and among widows and widowers (1.50; 1.33-1.69). Low area-based income modestly increased the effect. Among the preexisting medical conditions investigated, effect modification was detected for previous psychiatric disorders (1.69; 1.39-2.07), depression (1.72; 1.24-2.39), heart conduction disorders (1.77; 1.38-2.27), and circulatory disorders of the brain (1.47; 1.34-1.62). Temperature-related mortality was higher among people residing in nursing homes, and a large effect was also detected for hospitalized subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Subsets of the population that are particularly vulnerable to high summer temperatures include the elderly, women, widows and widowers, those with selected medical conditions, and those staying in nursing homes and healthcare facilities.