Resolution of infertility and number of children: 1386 couples followed for a median of 13 years.

STUDY QUESTION: How common were children among infertile couples? SUMMARY ANSWER: A total of 61.7% of infertile couples presenting for care subsequently had live born children 13.1 years after first being clinically assessed, with a mean of 1.7 children among those who had at least one. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: While the prognoses for infertile couples undertaking specific treatments have been well described, less is known about those not undergoing these treatments or the total number of children. This information is necessary for decision-making in many individual cases; not knowing this has been cited by patients and clinicians as impeding implementation of care. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: The sole provider of specialist fertility care for the two southern-most regions in New Zealand enroled 1386 infertile couples from 1998 to 2005 in a longitudinal study with follow-up on all births until the end of 2014. Couples were followed in care for a median of 1.1 years and median follow-up for births was 13.1 years. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Clinic-collected data were linked to national maternity data to extend follow-up past the end of clinical contact. The primary outcome was the total number of live born children. Hurdle regression was used to investigate factors associated with resolving infertility and the total number of children. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Infertility was resolved with a live birth by 61.7% (95% CI 59.1-64.2%) of couples; just over half of all first births were treatment-dependent. Among couples who resolved their infertility, 55.6% (52.2-58.9%) had at least one additional child and the mean number of children was 1.7. While female age strongly influenced outcomes, one-third of women aged 40-41 years had a child, not significantly less than those in their late 30s. The lowest levels of resolution occurred in women aged ≥42 years, couples who were infertile for >4 years and women with a BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2. Moderate obesity did not affect outcomes. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The main limitation of this study was insufficient data to investigate male factor infertility outcomes. It is also possible that treatment-dependent resolution could be higher in more recent cohorts with the increased use of ART. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Outcomes in these couples are comparable to those seen in other studies in high-income countries despite the relatively low contribution of ART. The prognosis for most infertile couples is positive and suggests many will not require treatment. Further research is needed to inform best practice for women in their early forties or with moderate obesity, and to develop prediction models that are more relevant for the initial management of infertility. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was co-funded by a University of Otago PhD Scholarship and the Department of Women's and Children's Health, University of Otago. There were no competing interests to declare.

Habitual condom use across partner type and sexual position among younger gay and bisexual men: findings from New Zealand HIV behavioural surveillance 2006-2011.

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to investigate demographic and behavioural factors associated with condom use and to examine how habitual condom use was across partner types and sexual positions among younger men who have sex with men (YMSM), aged 16-29, surveyed in New Zealand. METHODS: We analysed the 2006-2011 national HIV behavioural surveillance data from YMSM who reported anal intercourse in four scenarios of partner type and sexual position: casual insertive, casual receptive, regular insertive and regular receptive. For each, respondents' condom use was classified as frequent (always/almost always) or otherwise, with associated factors identified with multivariate mixed-effect logistic regression. Habitual condom use across scenarios was examined using a latent variable technique that estimated the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). RESULTS: Frequent condom use was reported for 63.6% of 5153 scenarios reported from 2412 YMSM. Frequent use increased from boyfriend to fuckbuddy to casual partners. Infrequent use was associated with online recruitment, Pacific ethnicity, less education, HIV positivity, sex with women, having ≥20 sexual partners versus 1 and reporting insertive and receptive sexual positions. Frequent condom use was associated with having two to five sexual partners versus one and shorter regular partnerships. The ICC=0.865 indicated highly habitual patterns of use; habitual infrequent condom use was most prevalent with regular partners (53.3%) and habitual frequent condom use was most prevalent with casual partners (70.2%) and for either sexual position (50.5% and 49.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Habitual condom use among YMSM highlights the value of early, engaging and sustained condom promotion. Public health should provide better and more compelling condom education, training and promotion for YMSM.

HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men in New Zealand 1985-2009: 25 years of public health monitoring.

Annual population-based estimates of the number of men who have sex with men (MSM) with diagnosed HIV infection (HIV prevalence pool), and the proportion of all MSM this represents (HIV prevalence), have been insufficiently described over the long term. We investigated the dynamic effects of ongoing HIV diagnoses, lower mortality due to treatment and growth in the MSM population over time on these two epidemic indicators using national HIV/AIDS surveillance data in New Zealand, 1985-2009. The diagnosed HIV prevalence pool rose 79% between 1989 and 1999, and 137% between 1999 and 2009. Estimates of diagnosed HIV prevalence as a proportion of MSM were 0.2% of MSM in 1985, and were between 1.5% and 5.0% of MSM by 2009. New Zealand continues to have a relatively low-prevalence HIV epidemic among MSM; however, the number of MSM living with diagnosed infection is growing rapidly 25 years after HIV testing was introduced.

Unlinked anonymous HIV prevalence among New Zealand sexual health clinic attenders: 2005-2006.

This unlinked anonymous study aimed at determining the prevalence of HIV among sexual health clinic attenders having blood samples taken for syphilis and/or hepatitis B serology in six major New Zealand cities over a 12-month period in 2005-2006. Overall, seroprevalence was five per 1000 (47/9439). Among men who have sex with men (MSM), the overall prevalence and that of previously undiagnosed HIV were 44.1 and 20.1 per 1000, respectively. In heterosexual men, the overall prevalence was 1.2 per 1000 and in women 1.4 per 1000. HIV remains to be concentrated among homosexual and bisexual men. Comparison with a previous survey in 1996-1997 suggests an increase in the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV among MSM and also an increase in the number of MSM attending sexual health clinics. The low prevalence of HIV among heterosexuals suggests no extensive spread into the groups identified at risk of other sexually transmitted infections.

Beyond counting cases: public health impacts of national Paediatric Surveillance Units.

Paediatric Surveillance Units (PSUs) have been established in 14 countries and facilitate national, prospective, active surveillance for a range of conditions, with monthly reporting by child health specialists. The International Network of Paediatric Surveillance Units (INoPSU) was established in 1998 and facilitates international collaboration among member PSUs and allows for sharing of resources, simultaneous data collection and hence comparison of data from different geographical regions. The impact of data collected by PSUs, both individually and collectively as members of INoPSU, on public health outcomes, clinical care and research is described.

Rising incidence and prevalence of herpes simplex type 2 infection in a cohort of 26 year old New Zealanders.

OBJECTIVES: To examine changes in the incidence and prevalence of herpes simplex type 2 (HSV-2) infection in a birth cohort of 26 year old New Zealanders in whom seroprevalence had been measured at 3.4% at age 21. METHODS: Sera from 869 cohort members were tested using an indirect IgG enzyme linked immunoassay specific to the HSV-2 glycoprotein G. Serological results were compared with detailed sexual histories. RESULTS: In all, 96 participants (11%) were seropositive for HSV-2, including at least 56 who seroconverted after their 21st birthday. Among those known to be seronegative at age 21, the annual seroconversion rate was 13.5 cases per 1000 per year, compared with 8.1 cases per 1000 per sexually active year before age 21. New infections were associated with female sex and an early age of first intercourse. The average rate of partner change was lower in the cohort after age 21, and was only modestly increased among those who acquired new HSV-2 infections between ages 21 and 26. CONCLUSIONS: HSV-2 seroprevalence has risen sharply in this sexually active cohort, despite a reduction in the overall level of partner change. Increased rates of HSV-2 acquisition after age 21 may be due to a higher prevalence of infection in the pool of potential partners encountered during the third decade of life. Factors related to partner choice may have more influence on the risk of HSV-2 infection than the number of sexual partners alone.

Herpes simplex type 2 infection in a cohort aged 21 years.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the prevalence of HSV-2 antibodies in a birth cohort of 21 year old New Zealanders from whom detailed sexual histories had been obtained, and to assess the potential for HSV-2 serology in characterising a young adult population's risk for sexually transmitted diseases (STD). METHODS: Sera from 784 cohort members were tested using an indirect IgG enzyme linked immunoassay specific to the HSV-2 glycoprotein G. Positive results were confirmed by western blot. RESULTS: In all, 27 subjects were seropositive for HSV-2 (3.4%), only seven of whom gave a history of genital herpes (26%). Risk among females increased with lifetime number of partners, while risk for males increased with having a first partner who was aged 16 years or under. CONCLUSIONS: The seroprevalence of HSV-2 infection in this cohort was low, but similar to that seen in several other populations in this age group. HSV-2 seropositivity did not appear to be a sensitive marker for high risk sexual activity in this young population. This may be because a critical mass of HSV-2 carriers has not accumulated among potential partners by age 21 years.

HIV/AIDS in New Zealand: an epidemic in decline?

OBJECTIVE: To describe the AIDS epidemic in New Zealand, and to discuss the reasons for an apparent decline in incidence. METHODS: The AIDS Epidemiology Group collects information on persons diagnosed with AIDS through a compulsory notification system. Data were presented on people diagnosed to the end of 1994, and reported by the end of September 1995. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of AIDS in New Zealand was similar to that in some other Western countries, such as the United Kingdom, Germany and Sweden, before 1989, but has been declining since 1989. The epidemic is concentrated among men who have sex with men (89%). The median survival after diagnosis with AIDS is 13 months. CONCLUSIONS: The observed decline is not likely to be due to reporting delays or changes in reporting or diagnostic practices. The major factor was probably a rapid decline in HIV incidence among homosexual men a decade ago, and the effective prevention of epidemics in other subgroups. The epidemic in New Zealand started later than in other countries, enabling an earlier response, and there is evidence of behaviour change in high risk groups. Preventive efforts and monitoring must be maintained in order to ensure there is no reversal of this decline.

HIV surveillance by testing saliva from injecting drug users: a national study in New Zealand.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the prevalence of HIV infection among injecting drug users in New Zealand has remained low since the introduction of a needle and syringe exchange scheme in May 1988. DESIGN: Anonymous survey of intravenous drug users attending outlets of the exchange scheme, based on questionnaires and saliva testing. SETTING: Twelve pharmacies and community outreach organisation in six cities. SUBJECTS: Altogether 620 people provided saliva specimens and completed questionnaires. These represented 73% of those who visited exchange scheme outlets during a three month period in 1992. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Saliva was tested for antibodies to HIV-1 and HIV-2 using an IgG-capture enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (GACELISA). RESULTS: Of 591 specimens eligible for inclusion, only three (0.5%) were repeatedly reactive in the GACELISA test, while two of these were also positive in a Western blot test. CONCLUSIONS: Although surveys show that sharing of needles and syringes was common in New Zealand until recently, the prevalence of HIV infection in intravenous drug users has remained low. This can probably be attributed to the success of educational campaigns and legislative action to allow a needle and syringe exchange scheme to be set up.

Unlinked anonymous monitoring of HIV prevalence at sexually transmitted disease clinics.

AIM: To determine the prevalence of HIV infection among patients attending the four sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics in two metropolitan areas of New Zealand. METHODS: The population studied comprised everyone who attended between August 1991 and August 1992 because of concern about a possible new episode of an STD and who had a blood specimen taken for hepatitis B (or syphilis) serology. The study involved unlinked anonymous testing of left-over blood specimens, following ethical guidelines that have been proposed internationally. RESULTS: Among 8478 specimens tested, 23 (2.7 per 1000) were found to be HIV positive. The seroprevalence rates per 1000 among women, heterosexual men, and homosexual or bisexual men were 1.1, 1.3, and 44, respectively. All but five of the infected people were either known to be HIV positive or had an identifiable test during their clinic attendance. CONCLUSIONS: The seroprevalence rates are similar to those reported from STD clinics in England, and suggest that heterosexual transmission of HIV infection has not yet been extensive in New Zealand.

Outcome of adults with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in Auckland 1983-9.

AIMS: To assess the survival of Auckland residents diagnosed with AIDS between 1983 and 1989. METHODS: Retrospective case review RESULTS: Sixty nine Auckland residents were diagnosed with AIDS between 1983 and the end of 1989, and were cared for by the infectious disease unit, Auckland Hospital. The overall median survival was 289 days with 48% and 20% surviving at one and two years respectively. Survival was longer among those who were infected through homosexual contact, were younger, and not known to the infectious disease unit prior to the diagnosis of AIDS. Although survival was longer for those diagnosed in 1988 compared to earlier years, it was shorter again for those diagnosed in 1989. Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, the AIDS defining condition in 63.8% of people, was found less frequently in 1989, and overall was associated with a longer survival than most of the other AIDS-defining diagnoses. A quarter of the people were not known to be infected with HIV prior to the AIDS-defining condition. CONCLUSION: In New Zealand, as in other countries, changes in treatment strategies of people with HIV infection may impinge on the survival of people with AIDS.

A longitudinal study of Lancefield group A streptococcus acquisitions by a group of young Dunedin schoolchildren.

Paired saliva and pharyngeal cultures obtained on nine occasions over a 27-month period from a group of 103 young Dunedin schoolchildren were tested for beta haemolytic Lancefield group A streptococci. Approximately 20% of the 858 pharyngeal cultures and 5% of the saliva cultures were positive. Although group A streptococci were isolated at least once from 59 (57.3%) of the subjects, only seven cases of clinically apparent group A streptococcus pharyngitis were detected at the time of specimen taking. The study has shown that pharyngeal acquisitions of group A streptococci occur frequently in some young schoolchildren. Carriage of small numbers of group A streptococci in the absence of clinical symptoms of infection was common and in ten children the same type of group A streptococcus was consistently recovered from pharyngeal cultures over periods of more than 12 months. It remains unclear why some children do not seem to so readily acquire group A streptococci, while others develop serious delayed sequelae to these infections.