RESUMO
Epidemiological studies have reported that the frequency of nuclear cataracts (NUCs) is high among the elderly and in tropical countries. Ultraviolet (UV) irradiation and lens temperature are considered as key physical contributors, although their precise quantification is difficult. The aim of this study is to investigate the association of NUC prevalence with UV irradiation and heat load. First, we assessed the lens temperature using thermodynamic modeling considering the thermophysiological response. We then conducted a multivariate linear regression analysis for the epidemiological analysis of NUC prevalence across five cities. A strong correlation was observed between NUC prevalence and the combined effects of UV irradiation and cumulative equivalent minutes at 43 °C (CEM43°C) derived from the computed lens temperature (adjusted R2 = 0.933, p < 0.0001). Heat load significantly contributed to the prevalence at 52%, surpassing the contributions of UV irradiation (31%) and the decline in DNA repair capacity in the lens (17%). These results suggested that both UV radiation and heat load are associated with NUC, with heat load contributing more. Our findings provided important implications for future interventions, particularly in the context of global warming.