The current and future costs of colorectal cancer attributable to red and processed meat consumption in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Compelling evidence supports the association between red and processed meat consumption and increased risk of colorectal cancer. Herein, we estimated the current (2018) and future (2030) federal direct healthcare costs of colorectal cancer in the Brazilian Unified Health System attributable to red and processed meat consumption. Considering reduced red and processed meat consumption, we also projected attributable costs of colorectal cancer in 2040. METHODS: We retrieved information on red and processed meat consumption from two nationally representative dietary surveys, the Household Budget Survey 2008-2009 and 2017-2018; relative risks for colorectal cancer from a meta-analysis; direct healthcare costs of inpatient and outpatient procedures in adults ≥ 30 years with colorectal cancer (C18-C20) from 2008-2019 by sex. RESULTS: Attributable costs of colorectal cancer were calculated via comparative risk assessment, assuming a 10-year lag. In 2018, US$ 20.6 million (8.4%) of direct healthcare costs of colorectal cancer were attributable to red and processed meat consumption. In 2030, attributable costs will increase to US$ 86.6 million (19.3%). Counterfactual scenarios of reducing red and processed meat consumption in 2030 suggested that US$ 2.2 to 11.9 million and US$ 13 to 74 million could be saved in 2040, respectively. CONCLUSION: Red and processed meat consumption has an escalating economic impact on the Brazilian Unified Health System. Our findings support interventions and policies focused on primary prevention and cancer.

Correction: Current and future costs of cancer attributable to insufficient leisure-time physical activity in Brazil.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287224.].

Current and future costs of cancer attributable to insufficient leisure-time physical activity in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: Cancer is an increasing cause of death and disability in Brazil and a pivotal vector for growing health expenditures. Lower levels of leisure-time physical activity are associated with a higher risk of some cancers. We quantified the current and future cancer direct healthcare costs attributable to insufficient leisure-time physical activity in Brazil. METHODS: We performed a macrosimulation model using: (i) relative risks from meta-analyses; (ii) prevalence data of insufficient leisure-time physical activity in adults ≥ 20 years; (iii) national registries of healthcare costs of adults ≥ 30 years with cancer. We used simple linear regression to predict cancer costs as a function of time. We calculated the potential impact fraction (PIF) considering the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure and other counterfactual scenarios of physical activity prevalence. RESULTS: We projected that the costs of breast, endometrial, and colorectal cancers may increase from US$ 630 million in 2018 to US$ 1.1 billion in 2030 and US$ 1.5 billion in 2040. The costs of cancer attributable to insufficient leisure-time physical activity may increase from US$ 43 million in 2018 to US$ 64 million in 2030. Increasing leisure-time physical activity could potentially save US$ 3 million to US$ 8.9 million in 2040 by reducing the prevalence of insufficient leisure-time physical activity in 2030. CONCLUSION: Our results may be helpful to guide cancer prevention policies and programs in Brazil.

The future costs of cancer attributable to excess body weight in Brazil, 2030-2040.

BACKGROUND: Excess body weight (EBW), herein defined as body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2, is a well-known modifiable risk factor for cancer and a pivotal vector for growing healthcare costs. We estimated the future (2030) federal direct healthcare costs of cancer in the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) attributable to EBW. We also projected direct healthcare costs of cancer that could be potentially saved in 2040, considering counterfactual (alternative) scenarios of population-wide reductions in the BMI to be achievedin 2030. METHODS: We developed a macrosimulation model by sex using self-reported BMI data in adults ≥ 20 years who relied exclusively on the public health system from the Brazilian National Health Survey (PNS) 2019; relative risks for 12 types of cancer from the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) meta-analysis; and nationwide registries of federal direct healthcare costs of inpatient and outpatient procedures in adults ≥30 years with cancer from 2008-2019. We calculated the attributable costs of cancer via comparative risk assessment, assuming a 10-year lag between exposure and outcome. We used the potential impact fraction (PIF) equation and the Monte Carlo simulation method to estimate the attributable costs and 95% uncertainty intervals, considering the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure and other counterfactual (alternative) scenarios of the EBW prevalence. We assessed the cancer costs attributable to EBW, multiplying PIF by the direct healthcare costs of cancer. RESULTS: In 2030, 2.4% or US$ 62.8 million in direct healthcare costs of cancer may be attributable to EBW. We projected potential savings of approximately US$ 10.3 to 26.6 million in 2040 by reducing the prevalence of EBW in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated high future costs of cancer attributable to EBW in Brazil. Our findings may support interventions and policies focused on the primary prevention of EBW and cancer.