Increased human risk caused by cascading hazards - A framework.

Cascading hazards occur frequently. Unexpected casualties and losses of properties, or even impacts on the society and the environment may ensue from failure to anticipate the amplified risks induced by cascading hazards. Current risk assessment methods pay relatively less attention to quantifying the increased human risk related to "cascading" events. An improved framework for quantifying the human risk caused by cascading hazards is proposed in this paper. The framework considers the interactions among the cascading hazards and among the vulnerabilities of elements to these hazards. Its kernel is to scientifically anticipate and gear up for any new intensified hazards, which may otherwise lead to serious social aftermath. The framework is illustrated with a multi-hazard example close to the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake, which involved a chain of hazards including slope failures, a large debris flow, river damming, and flooding.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC.

Evolution of Mass Movements near Epicentre of Wenchuan Earthquake, the First Eight Years.

It is increasingly clear that landslides represent a major cause of economic costs and deaths in earthquakes in mountains. In the Wenchuan earthquake case, post-seismic cascading landslides continue to represent a major problem eight years on. Failure to anticipate the impact of cascading landslides could lead to unexpected losses of human lives and properties. Previous studies tended to focus on separate landslide processes, with little attention paid to the quantification of long-term evolution of multiple processes or the evolution of mass movements. The very active mass movements near the epicentre of the Wenchuan earthquake provided us a unique opportunity to understand the complex processes of the evolving cascading landslides after a strong earthquake. This study budgets the mass movements on the hillslopes and in the channels in the first eight years since the Wenchuan earthquake and verify a conservation in mass movements. A system illustrating the evolution and interactions of mass movement after a strong earthquake is proposed.

Sensitivity analysis of pesticides contaminating groundwater by applying probability and transport methods.

The use of pesticides is a potential threat to local groundwater. Once groundwater is contaminated, it is very difficult to clean. Thus, it is of importance to assess the risk of contaminating local groundwater at an early stage when pesticides are found in soils. This knowledge will also help in remediation strategies. Traditional methods of deterministic analysis cannot explicitly account for the sometimes large uncertainties that exist at this stage in the work, whereas probabilistic analyses are better suited for dealing with these problems. In this paper, we have combined contaminant transport with a 1st-order reliability approach. Pesticide concentrations in soil have been studied to estimate the probability of failure--that is, of pesticides exceeding established critical levels in groundwater. Results indict that failure probability increases rapidly within a certain range of pesticide concentrations in soil for different critical levels. In given aquifer conditions and contaminants, probabilities of contaminants exceeding particular critical levels can easily be obtained according to various water usage scenarios. The distribution of importance factors among variables indicates the contribution their relative weights make to the failure probability. Hence, authorities can easily form sensitivity factors to take action and reduce the risk of contaminating the groundwater.