Progress of South East Asian Region countries towards achieving interim End TB strategy targets for TB incidence and mortality: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: In 2018, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported that almost 10 million people worldwide had tuberculosis (TB). The majority of the TB cases were concentrated in South East Asian Region (SEAR) countries. To curb this burden, the WHO has set interim targets to reduce TB incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025 (interim targets of the 'End TB' strategy). Hence, this study was conducted to determine the progress of SEAR countries towards reaching these interim targets for TB incidence and mortality. METHODS: Secondary data analysis was performed using information from the WHO Global Health Observatory and Global Health Estimates for all SEAR countries. ARIMA modelling was used to forecast TB incidence and TB mortality from 2000 to 2025. Joinpoint regression was performed to determine the average annual percent change. RESULTS: Based on the current trend, we estimated that the incidence and mortality of TB in SEAR countries will decline to 3.7 million (4.37 million in 2018) and 495,280 (650,979 in 2016) by 2025, respectively. Projected age-standardised TB incidence showed a significant decline in only four SEAR countries, with the maximal decline in Myanmar (47.3%) followed by India (23.4%) compared with 2015 estimates. Age-standardised TB mortality showed a declining trend in six SEAR countries, with the maximum decline found in Myanmar (60.3%) followed by Thailand (39.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Current study findings show that it is highly unlikely for most SEAR countries to achieve the WHO recommended interim End TB targets of 50% reduction in incidence and 75% reduction in mortality by 2025.

Motivating High School Students From Rural Areas to Attend College and Pursue Careers as Osteopathic Physicians.

CONTEXT: One potential way to address critical current and future projected health care workforce shortages is through comprehensive programs that could potentially inspire high school students to pursue osteopathic medical careers in underserved areas. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a comprehensive, 5-week enrichment program could promote interest among rural high-school students in careers osteopathic medicine. METHODS: In May 2018, 116 high school students with a grade point average of 2.8 or higher from rural areas, including New Mexico and its surrounding rural areas in the US-Mexico border region, enrolled in а 5-week program offering American College Testing (ACT) preparation and biomedical sciences enrichment at Burrell College of Osteopathic Medicine (BCOM). During the program, students were offered more than 150 hours of interactive in-class lectures and hands-on activities with laboratories focusing on college preparedness, health sciences, and motivating students to pursue osteopathic medical career and practice medicine in rural areas. Clinically-oriented sessions covering osteopathic philosophy and osteopathic manipulative medicine were included. After completion, a voluntary and anonymous survey was sent to students who completed the program students through QualtricsXM©. Blinded ACT scores were collected from participants' schools, along with college enrollment status information. RESULTS: Of 116 enrolled students, 106 (91.4%) completed the program successfully. In their postcompletion survey responses, students reported that they had gained a realistic perception of the field of medicine and were motivated to attend college (mean [standard error, SE] score on 5-point Likert scale over 2 questions, 4.8 [0.06]) and osteopathic medical school (mean [SE], 4.7 [0.1]). Participants also felt more informed about physician shortage in rural areas (mean [SE], 4.7 [0.07]) and appeared to be inspired to practice medicine in rural areas (mean [SE], 4.6 [0.09]). Students also reported feeling better prepared to take the ACT after finishing this program (mean [SE], 4.9 [0.04]). Finally, we were able to collect the ACT scores of 51 participants (48.1%) who completed the program; the mean ACT score was 24.3, compared with a reported national mean of 20.7 on a scoring scale of 1-36. We also performed a follow-up inquiry showing that 78 of the 81 participating students (96%) who had graduated from high school were enrolled in college or university and 59 (73%) had elected in science, technology, engineering, mathematics, or health majors. CONCLUSION: Rural high school pipeline programs could be a tool to motivate high school students to attend college and ultimately to develop physicians who are interested to practice in medically underserved areas.