Socio-cognitive constraints and opportunities for sustainable intensification in South Asia: insights from fuzzy cognitive mapping in coastal Bangladesh.

Appreciating and dealing with the plurality of farmers' perceptions and their contextual knowledge and perspectives of the functioning and performance of their agroecosystems-in other words, their 'mental models'-is central for appropriate and sustainable agricultural development. In this respect, the sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to eradicate poverty and food insecurity by 2030 by envisioning social inclusivity that incorporates the preferences and knowledge of key stakeholders, including farmers. Agricultural development interventions and policies directed at sustainable intensification (SI), however, do not sufficiently account for farmers' perceptions, beliefs, priorities, or interests. Considering two contrasting agroecological systems in coastal Bangladesh, we used a fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM)-based simulation and sensitivity analysis of mental models of respondents of different farm types from 240 farm households. The employed FCM mental models were able to (1) capture farmers' perception of farming system concepts and relationships for each farm type and (2) assess the impact of external interventions (drivers) on cropping intensification and food security. We decomposed the FCM models' variance into the first-order sensitivity index (SVI) and total sensitivity index (TSI) using a winding stairs algorithm. Both within and outside polder areas, the highest TSIs (35-68%) were observed for effects of agricultural extension on changes in other concepts in the map, particularly food security and income (SI indicators), indicating the importance of extension programs for SI. Outside polders, drainage and micro-credit were also influential; within polders, the availability of micro-credit appears to affect farmer perceptions of SI indicators more than drainage. This study demonstrated the importance of reflection on the differing perspectives of farmers both within and outside polders to identify entry points for development interventions. In addition, the study underscores the need for micro-farming systems-level research to assess the context-based feasibility of introduced interventions as perceived by farmers of different farm types. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-021-01342-y.

Spatially explicit database on crop-livestock management, soil, climate, greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential for all of Bangladesh.

This data article provides spatially explicit data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential at various administrative levels for the whole of Bangladesh. The results arising from analysis of this database are presented in research article "Quantifying opportunities for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation using big data from smallholder crop and livestock farmers across Bangladesh" [1]. We collected crop and livestock management data and associated soil and climatic data from variety of primary and secondary sources outlined below in our methodology. The datafiles on crops and livestock contain model outputs for three greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) and their global warming potential, which are linked, to the information on crop/livestock management, soil and climatic conditions presented in the supplementary data of the associated manuscript. The datafiles on mitigation potential contain district-level annual GHG mitigation potential by 2030 and 2050 segregated by different crops/livestock types and mitigation options. This dataset is useful for Bangladesh's GHG accounting from the agricultural sector, and can be used to update its nationally determined contributions. Administrative level emissions and mitigation potential estimates segregated by crop-livestock types and mitigation options are useful to prioritize agricultural research and development interventions consistent with food security and environmental goals and to organize agricultural extension and support services to better inform farmers on food production and move towards GHG mitigation goals.

Quantifying opportunities for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation using big data from smallholder crop and livestock farmers across Bangladesh.

Climate change is and will continue to have significant implications for agricultural systems. While adaptation to climate change should be the priority for smallholder production systems, adoption of cost-effective mitigation options in agriculture not only contributes to food security but also reduces the extent of climate change and future adaptation needs. Utilizing management data from 16,413 and 12,548 crop and livestock farmers and associated soil and climatic data, we estimated GHG emissions generated from crop and livestock production using crop and livestock models, respectively. Mitigation measures in crop and livestock production, their mitigation potential and cost/benefit of adoption were then obtained from literature review, stakeholder consultations and expert opinion. We applied the identified mitigation measures to a realistic scale of adoption scenario in the short- (2030) and long-term (2050). Our results were then validated through stakeholders consultations. Here, we present identified mitigation options, their mitigation potentials and cost or benefit of adoption in the form of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). Based on our analysis, total GHG emissions from agricultural sector in Bangladesh for the year 2014-15 is 76.79 million tonne (Mt) carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Business-as-usual GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in Bangladesh are approximately 86.87 and 100.44 Mt CO2e year-1 by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Adoption of climate-smart crop and livestock management options to reduce emissions considering a realistic adoption scenario would offer GHG mitigation opportunities of 9.51 and 14.21 Mt CO2e year-1 by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Of this mitigation potential, 70-75% can be achieved through cost-saving options that could benefit smallholder farmers. Realization of this potential mitigation benefit, however, largely depends on the degree to which supportive policies and measures can encourage farmers' adoption of the identified climate smart agricultural techniques. Therefore, government should focus on facilitating uptake of these options through appropriate policy interventions, incentive mechanisms and strengthening agricultural extension programs.

Major Climate risks and Adaptation Strategies of Smallholder Farmers in Coastal Bangladesh.

Rural households in South Asia's coastal deltas face numerous livelihood challenges, including risks posed by climatic variability and extreme weather events. This study examines major climate risks, farmers' adaptation strategies, and the factors affecting the choice of those strategies using data collected from 630 households in southwestern coastal Bangladesh. Farmers identified cyclones, excessive rain and flooding, and salinity as direct climate risks. Increased crop diseases/pests and livestock diseases were perceived as indirect risks resulting from climatic variability. Farmers used multiple adaptation strategies against those risks such as modifications in farm management, use of savings and borrowing funds from family and neighbors, and periodically reducing household food consumption. Off-farm employment and seeking assistance from governmental as well as non-governmental organizations (NGOs) were also common adaptation strategies. The results show that male-headed households are more likely to change farming practices and reduce consumption compared with female-headed households that conversely tended to take assistance from NGOs as an adaptation strategy. Ownership of land and livestock, as well as farmers' prior exposure to climate change and educational training, also had a significant effect on the choice of adaptation strategy. Therefore, development interventions and policies that aimed at improving resource endowment and training to farmers on climatic risks and their adaptation strategies can help minimize the impact of climatic risks.