Machine Learning Prediction Model to Predict Length of Stay of Patients Undergoing Hip or Knee Arthroplasties: Results from a High-Volume Single-Center Multivariate Analysis.

Background: The growth of arthroplasty procedures requires innovative strategies to reduce inpatients' hospital length of stay (LOS). This study aims to develop a machine learning prediction model that may aid in predicting LOS after hip or knee arthroplasties. Methods: A collection of all the clinical notes of patients who underwent elective primary or revision arthroplasty from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019 was performed. The hospitalization was classified as "short LOS" if it was less than or equal to 6 days and "long LOS" if it was greater than 7 days. Clinical data from pre-operative laboratory analysis, vital parameters, and demographic characteristics of patients were screened. Final data were used to train a logistic regression model with the aim of predicting short or long LOS. Results: The final dataset was composed of 1517 patients (795 "long LOS", 722 "short LOS", p = 0.3196) with a total of 1541 hospital admissions (729 "long LOS", 812 "short LOS", p < 0.001). The complete model had a prediction efficacy of 78.99% (AUC 0.7899). Conclusions: Machine learning may facilitate day-by-day clinical practice determination of which patients are suitable for a shorter LOS and which for a longer LOS, in which a cautious approach could be recommended.

Artificial intelligence processing electronic health records to identify commonalities and comorbidities cluster at Immuno Center Humanitas.

Background: Comorbidities are common in chronic inflammatory conditions, requiring multidisciplinary treatment approach. Understanding the link between a single disease and its comorbidities is important for appropriate treatment and management. We evaluate the ability of an NLP-based process for knowledge discovery to detect information about pathologies, patients' phenotype, doctors' prescriptions and commonalities in electronic medical records, by extracting information from free narrative text written by clinicians during medical visits, resulting in the extraction of valuable information and enriching real world evidence data from a multidisciplinary setting. Methods: We collected clinical notes from the Allergy Department of Humanitas Research Hospital written in the last 3 years and used it to look for diseases that cluster together as comorbidities associated to the main pathology of our patients, and for the extent of prescription of systemic corticosteroids, thus evaluating the ability of NLP-based tools for knowledge discovery to extract structured information from free text. Results: We found that the 3 most frequent comorbidities to appear in our clusters were asthma, rhinitis, and urticaria, and that 991 (of 2057) patients suffered from at least one of these comorbidities. The clusters which co-occur particularly often are oral allergy syndrome and urticaria (131 patients), angioedema and urticaria (105 patients), rhinitis and asthma (227 patients). With regards to systemic corticosteroid prescription volume by our clinicians, we found it was lower when compared to the therapy the patients followed before coming to our attention, with the exception of two diseases: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and Angioedema. Conclusions: This analysis seems to be valid and is confirmed by the data from the literature. This means that NLP tools could have significant role in many other research fields of medicine, as it may help identify other important, and possibly previously neglected clusters of patients with comorbidities and commonalities. Another potential benefit of this approach lies in its potential ability to foster a multidisciplinary approach, using the same drugs to treat pathologies normally treated by physicians in different branches of medicine, thus saving resources and improving the pharmacological management of patients.

An individualized algorithm to predict mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia: a machine learning based study.

Introduction: Identifying SARS-CoV-2 patients at higher risk of mortality is crucial in the management of a pandemic. Artificial intelligence techniques allow one to analyze large amounts of data to find hidden patterns. We aimed to develop and validate a mortality score at admission for COVID-19 based on high-level machine learning. Material and methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study on hospitalized adult COVID-19 patients between March and December 2020. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. A machine learning approach based on vital parameters, laboratory values and demographic features was applied to develop different models. Then, a feature importance analysis was performed to reduce the number of variables included in the model, to develop a risk score with good overall performance, that was finally evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration capabilities. All results underwent cross-validation. Results: 1,135 consecutive patients (median age 70 years, 64% male) were enrolled, 48 patients were excluded, and the cohort was randomly divided into training (760) and test (327) groups. During hospitalization, 251 (22%) patients died. After feature selection, the best performing classifier was random forest (AUC 0.88 ±0.03). Based on the relative importance of each variable, a pragmatic score was developed, showing good performances (AUC 0.85 ±0.025), and three levels were defined that correlated well with in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: Machine learning techniques were applied in order to develop an accurate in-hospital mortality risk score for COVID-19 based on ten variables. The application of the proposed score has utility in clinical settings to guide the management and prognostication of COVID-19 patients.

The role of anti-hypertensive treatment, comorbidities and early introduction of LMWH in the setting of COVID-19: A retrospective, observational study in Northern Italy.

BACKGROUND: There is a great deal of debate about the role of cardiovascular comorbidities and the chronic use of antihypertensive agents (such as ACE-I and ARBs) on mortality on COVID-19 patients. Of note, ACE2 is responsible for the host cell entry of the virus. METHODS: We extracted data on 575 consecutive patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of Humanitas Center, between February 21 and April 14, 2020. The aim of the study was to evaluate the role of chronic treatment with ACE-I or ARBs and other clinical predictors on in-hospital mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that a chronic intake of ACE-I was associated with a trend in reduction of mortality (OR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.27-1.03; p = 0.06), differently from a chronic intake of ARB (OR: 1.1; 95% CI: 0.5-2.8; p=0.8). Increased age (ORs ranging from 3.4 to 25.2 and to 39.5 for 60-70, 70-80 and >80 years vs <60) and cardiovascular comorbidities (OR: 1.90; 95% CI: 1.1-3.3; p = 0.02) were confirmed as important risk factors for COVID-19 mortality. Timely treatment with low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) in ED was found to be protective (OR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.21-0.62; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study can contribute to understand the reasons behind the high mortality rate of patients in Lombardy, a region which accounts for >50% of total Italian deaths. Based on our findings, we support that daily intake of antihypertensive medications in the setting of COVID-19 should not be discontinued and that a timely LMWH administration in ED has shown to decrease in-hospital mortality.