Genetic background, and not ontogenetic effects, affects avian seasonal timing of reproduction.

Avian seasonal timing is a life-history trait with important fitness consequences and which is currently under directional selection due to climate change. To predict micro-evolution in this trait, it is crucial to properly estimate its heritability. Heritabilities are often estimated from pedigreed wild populations. As these are observational data, it leaves the possibility that the resemblance between related individuals is not due to shared genes but to ontogenetic effects; when the environment for the offspring provided by early laying pairs differs from that by late pairs and the laying dates of these offspring when they reproduce themselves is affected by this environment, this may lead to inflated heritability estimates. Using simulation studies, we first tested whether and how much such an early environmental effect can inflate heritability estimates from animal models, and we showed that pedigree structure determines by how much early environmental effects inflate heritability estimates. We then used data from a wild population of great tits (Parus major) to compare laying dates of females born early in the season in first broods and from sisters born much later, in second broods. These birds are raised under very different environmental conditions but have the same genetic background. The laying dates of first and second brood offspring do not differ when they reproduce themselves, clearly showing that ontogenetic effects are very small and hence, family resemblance in timing is due to genes. This finding is essential for the interpretation of the heritabilities reported from wild populations and for predicting micro-evolution in response to climate change.

Strong artificial selection in the wild results in predicted small evolutionary change.

Estimates of genetic variation and selection allow for quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, at least in controlled laboratory experiments. Natural populations are, however, different in many ways, and natural selection on heritable traits does not always result in phenotypic change. To test whether we were able to predict the evolutionary dynamics of a complex trait measured in a natural, heterogeneous environment, we performed, over an 8-year period, a two-way selection experiment on clutch size in a subdivided island population of great tits (Parus major). Despite strong artificial selection, there was no clear evidence for evolutionary change at the phenotypic level. Environmentally induced differences in clutch size among years are, however, large and can mask evolutionary changes. Indeed, genetic changes in clutch size, inferred from a statistical model, did not deviate systematically from those predicted. Although this shows that estimates of genetic variation and selection can indeed provide quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, also in the wild, it also emphasizes that demonstrating evolution in wild populations is difficult, and that the interpretation of phenotypic trends requires great care.

Additive and nonadditive genetic variation in avian personality traits.

Individuals of all vertebrate species differ consistently in their reactions to mildly stressful challenges. These typical reactions, described as personalities or coping strategies, have a clear genetic basis, but the structure of their inheritance in natural populations is almost unknown. We carried out a quantitative genetic analysis of two personality traits (exploration and boldness) and the combination of these two traits (early exploratory behaviour). This study was carried out on the lines resulting from a two-directional artificial selection experiment on early exploratory behaviour (EEB) of great tits (Parus major) originating from a wild population. In analyses using the original lines, reciprocal F(1) and reciprocal first backcross generations, additive, dominance, maternal effects ands sex-dependent expression of exploration, boldness and EEB were estimated. Both additive and dominant genetic effects were important determinants of phenotypic variation in exploratory behaviour and boldness. However, no sex-dependent expression was observed in either of these personality traits. These results are discussed with respect to the maintenance of genetic variation in personality traits, and the expected genetic structure of other behavioural and life history traits in general.

Frequency of migrants and migratory activity are genetically correlated in a bird population: evolutionary implications.

Most migratory bird populations are composed of individuals that migrate and individuals that remain resident. While the role of ecological factors in maintaining this behavioral dimorphism has received much attention, the importance of genetic constraints on the evolution of avian migration has not yet been considered. Drawing on the recorded migratory activities of 775 blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) from a partially migratory population in southern France, we tested two alternative genetic models about the relationship between incidence and amount of migratory activity. The amount of migratory activity could be the continuous variable "underlying" the phenotypic expression of migratory urge, or, alternatively, the expression of both traits could be controlled by two separate genetic systems. The distributions of migratory activities in five different cohorts and the inheritance pattern derived from selective breeding experiments both indicate that incidence and amount of migratory activity are two aspects of one trait. Thus, all birds without measurable activity have activity levels at the low end of a continuous distribution, below the limit of expression or detection. The phenotypic dichotomy "migrant-nonmigrant" is caused by a threshold which may not be fixed but influenced both genetically and environmentally. This finding has profound implications for the evolution of migration: the transition from migratoriness to residency should not only be driven by selection favoring resident birds but also by selection for lower migratory activity. This potential for selection on two aspects, residency and migration distance, of the same trait may enable extremely rapid evolutionary changes to occur in migratory behavior.

The interaction of inbreeding depression and environmental stochasticity in the risk of extinction of small populations.

Current population genetic and population dynamic models are inappropriate to judge the risk of extinction of small populations due to the combined effects of inbreeding, genetic drift, demographic stochasticity, and environmental stochasticity. Instead, a model based on the aggregated fates of individuals is advocated. The unequal distribution of resources over individuals is an essential part of this model. The model allows the incorporation of the mutation-selection dynamics of alleles leading to inbreeding effects and to fixation of slightly deleterious mutations as a result of genetic drift. The slightly deleterious mutations lower the conversion of resources into offspring. Whereas lethal alleles are rapidly eliminated by selection in small populations, the selection against mild deleterious effects depends strongly on effective population size and on the social system, that is, on the division of resources among individuals. The model allows for the study of rates at which processes occur while far away from equilibrium, which is crucial in understanding the extinction risks of threatened populations. One example of the latter is illustrated in simulations in which small populations become extinct between approximately 100 and 200 generations after they became small populations, due to a gradual accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations.

An accurate method for estimating an approximate lethal dose with few animals, tested with a Monte Carlo procedure.

A reliable but not necessarily precise indication of the toxicity of a chemical product is frequently needed for the determination of its class of toxicity. Estimations of the LD50 carried out for this purpose often have a precision which is higher than necessary and so is the number of laboratory animals used. Alternative methods estimating an approximate lethal dose (ALD) have been proposed, but too little is known about their accuracy and precision. The method of Deichmann and LeBlanc (1943) for estimating an ALD has a systematic error, dependent upon the magnitude of the unknown variance of the log tolerance. A new method was developed in which this systematic error was removed. Its performance was tested in a model with Monte Carlo techniques. The model is based on the log-normal distribution of individual tolerance, i.e. the lowest dose that is lethal for an individual of the species under study. A hypothetical substance was created with a mean tolerance between 1 and 5,000 mg per kg and a standard deviation of log tolerance between 0.1 and 1.5 (in natural logarithms). This substance was then subjected to a sequential test, by repeatedly drawing a random element from the population of normally distributed log tolerance values and testing whether this element is smaller or greater than the dose administered according to the method's protocol. The method of Lorke (1983) was tested with a similar simulation model. In series of 100 simulations no systematic error was found. For a standard deviation of log tolerance exceeding 0.85 the new method was less precise than that of Lorke, but for smaller values the new method was more precise; it required on average less than ten animals, against 13 required in Lorke's method.

Genetic variation in the timing of reproduction in the Great Tit.

About 40% of the population variation in the initiation dates of first clutches within years is genetically determined. The onset of laying, which is determined by the female, is not detectably influenced by spatial heterogeneity of the study area.There is a variable selection favoring early, middle, or late laying in some years. Over the study period as a whole there is a slight net selection for laying relatively late.The implications for a potential rapid evolutionary change are discussed. The conclusion is reached that the population mean might change with rates of up to one week per five generations, which is approximately a decade.