Interlaboratory comparison of a multiplex immunoassay that measures human serum IgG antibodies against six-group B streptococcus polysaccharides.

Measurement of IgG antibodies against group B streptococcus (GBS) capsular polysaccharide (CPS) by use of a standardized and internationally accepted multiplex immunoassay is important for the evaluation of candidate maternal GBS vaccines in order to compare results across studies. A standardized assay is also required if serocorrelates of protection against invasive GBS disease are to be established in infant sera for the six predominant GBS serotypes since it would permit the comparison of results across the six serotypes. We undertook an interlaboratory study across five laboratories that used standardized assay reagents and protocols with a panel of 44 human sera to measure IgG antibodies against GBS CPS serotypes Ia, Ib, II, III, IV, and V. The within-laboratory intermediate precision, which included factors like the lot of coated beads, laboratory analyst, and day, was generally below 20% relative standard deviation (RSD) for all six serotypes, across all five laboratories. The cross-laboratory reproducibility was < 25% RSD for all six serotypes, which demonstrated the consistency of results across the different laboratories. Additionally, anti-CPS IgG concentrations for the 44-member human serum panel were established. The results of this study showed assay robustness and that the resultant anti-CPS IgG concentrations were reproducible across laboratories for the six GBS CPS serotypes when the standardized assay was used.

Effectiveness of the Sanofi/GSK (VidPrevtyn Beta) and Pfizer-BioNTech (Comirnaty Original/Omicron BA.4-5) bivalent vaccines against hospitalisation in England.

Background: The Sanofi/GSK AS03-adjuvanted (VidPrevtyn Beta) vaccine and the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA (Comirnaty Original/Omicron BA.4-5) bivalent vaccine were offered to adults aged 75 years and over in England from 3rd April 2023. This is the first time an adjuvanted COVID-19 vaccine has been administered as part of a UK COVID-19 vaccination programme. In clinical trials, antibody levels generated were comparable with mRNA vaccines but there are no real-world data on the effectiveness or duration of protection. Methods: We used a test-negative case-control study design to estimate the incremental vaccine effectiveness of the Sanofi/GSK and Pfizer bivalent BA.4-5 boosters against hospitalisation amongst those aged 75 years and older in England. Cases (those testing positive) and controls (those testing negative) were identified from the national COVID-19 PCR testing data undertaken in hospital settings. The study period included tests from 3rd April 2023 to 27th August 2023. Tests were linked to the COVID-19 vaccination register and to the national hospital admission database, restricting to those with an acute respiratory infection coded in the primary diagnosis field. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated using multivariable logistic regression amongst those who had last received an autumn 2022 booster given at least 3 months prior. The test result was the outcome and vaccination status the exposure. Analyses were adjusted for week of test, gender, age, clinical risk group status, care home resident status, region, index of multiple deprivation, ethnicity, influenza vaccination status and recent COVID-19 positivity. Findings: There were 14,169 eligible tests from hospitalised individuals aged 75 years and older; 3005 cases (positive tests) and 11,164 controls (negative tests). Effectiveness was highest in the period 9-13 days post vaccination for both manufacturers at about 50%; 43.7% (95% CI, 20.1-60.3%) and 56.1% (95% CI, 25.2-74.2%) for Sanofi/GSK and Pfizer BA.4-5, respectively. There was evidence of waning with a reduction to about 30% for both manufacturers after 5-9 weeks. The longest time interval post vaccination for which we were able to estimate effectiveness was 10+ weeks post vaccination, at which point vaccine effectiveness was 17.6% (95% CI, -3.6 to 34.5%) and 37.9% (95% CI, 13.2-55.5%) for the Sanofi/GSK and Pfizer BA.4-5 boosters, respectively. Interpretation: Both boosters provided good protection against hospitalisation amongst older adults. The finding that the adjuvanted vaccine targeting the distant Beta strain had similar effectiveness to the bivalent mRNA vaccine targeting more closely matched Omicron sub-lineages is notable and highlights the need for further real-world studies into the effectiveness of vaccines from different vaccine platforms and formulations in the presence of matched and unmatched strains. Funding: No external funding.

Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024.

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

Antibody kinetics between birth and three months of life in healthy infants with natural exposure to Group B streptococcus: A UK cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Capsular polysaccharide (CPS) serotype-specific Immunoglobulin G (IgG) in cord blood has been proposed as a correlate of protection against invasive Group B Streptococcus (iGBS) disease. Although protective levels are required in infants throughout the window of vulnerability up to 3 months of age, little is known regarding the kinetics of GBS-specific IgG over this period. METHODS: We enrolled 33 healthy infants born to mothers colonized with GBS. We collected cord blood and infant blood samples either at one (21-35 days), two (49-63 days), or three months of age (77-91 days). We measured GBS serotype-specific CPS IgG concentrations and calculated the decay rate using a mixed-effects model. We further explored whether the antibody kinetics were affected by common maternal and infant factors and estimated the correlation between IgG concentration at birth and one, two, and three months of age. RESULTS: The half-life estimate of IgG concentration for homologous and non-homologous GBS serotypes in paired samples with detectable IgG levels at both time points was 27.4 (95 % CI: 23.5-32.9) days. The decay rate did not vary by maternal age (p = 0.7), ethnicity (p = 0.1), gravida (p = 0.1), gestation (p = 0.7), and infant sex (p = 0.1). Predicted IgG titres above the assay lower limit of quantification on day 30 strongly correlated with titres at birth (Spearman correlation coefficient 0.71 [95 % CI: 0.60-0.80]). CONCLUSION: Our results provide a basis for future investigations into the use of antibody kinetics in defining a serocorrelate of protection against late-onset iGBS disease.

Postpandemic Sentinel Surveillance of Respiratory Diseases in the Context of the World Health Organization Mosaic Framework: Protocol for a Development and Evaluation Study Involving the English Primary Care Network 2023-2024.

BACKGROUND: Prepandemic sentinel surveillance focused on improved management of winter pressures, with influenza-like illness (ILI) being the key clinical indicator. The World Health Organization (WHO) global standards for influenza surveillance include monitoring acute respiratory infection (ARI) and ILI. The WHO's mosaic framework recommends that the surveillance strategies of countries include the virological monitoring of respiratory viruses with pandemic potential such as influenza. The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioner Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) in collaboration with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has provided sentinel surveillance since 1967, including virology since 1993. OBJECTIVE: We aim to describe the RSC's plans for sentinel surveillance in the 2023-2024 season and evaluate these plans against the WHO mosaic framework. METHODS: Our approach, which includes patient and public involvement, contributes to surveillance objectives across all 3 domains of the mosaic framework. We will generate an ARI phenotype to enable reporting of this indicator in addition to ILI. These data will support UKHSA's sentinel surveillance, including vaccine effectiveness and burden of disease studies. The panel of virology tests analyzed in UKHSA's reference laboratory will remain unchanged, with additional plans for point-of-care testing, pneumococcus testing, and asymptomatic screening. Our sampling framework for serological surveillance will provide greater representativeness and more samples from younger people. We will create a biomedical resource that enables linkage between clinical data held in the RSC and virology data, including sequencing data, held by the UKHSA. We describe the governance framework for the RSC. RESULTS: We are co-designing our communication about data sharing and sampling, contextualized by the mosaic framework, with national and general practice patient and public involvement groups. We present our ARI digital phenotype and the key data RSC network members are requested to include in computerized medical records. We will share data with the UKHSA to report vaccine effectiveness for COVID-19 and influenza, assess the disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus, and perform syndromic surveillance. Virological surveillance will include COVID-19, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and other common respiratory viruses. We plan to pilot point-of-care testing for group A streptococcus, urine tests for pneumococcus, and asymptomatic testing. We will integrate test requests and results with the laboratory-computerized medical record system. A biomedical resource will enable research linking clinical data to virology data. The legal basis for the RSC's pseudonymized data extract is The Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2002, and all nonsurveillance uses require research ethics approval. CONCLUSIONS: The RSC extended its surveillance activities to meet more but not all of the mosaic framework's objectives. We have introduced an ARI indicator. We seek to expand our surveillance scope and could do more around transmissibility and the benefits and risks of nonvaccine therapies.

Use of a meningococcal group B vaccine (4CMenB) in populations at high risk of gonorrhoea in the UK.

The meningococcal group B vaccine, 4CMenB, is a broad-spectrum, recombinant protein vaccine that is licensed for protection against meningococcal group B disease in children and adults. Over the past decade, several observational studies supported by laboratory studies have reported protection by 4CMenB against gonorrhoea, a sexually transmitted infection caused by Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Gonorrhoea is a major global public health problem, with rising numbers of diagnoses and increasing resistance to multiple antibiotics. In England, more than 82 000 cases of gonorrhoea were diagnosed in 2022, with nearly half of the cases diagnosed among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men. There are currently no licensed vaccines against gonorrhoea but 4CMenB is estimated to provide 33-47% protection against gonorrhoea. On Nov 10, 2023, the UK Joint Scientific Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation agreed that a targeted programme should be initiated using 4CMenB to prevent gonorrhoea among individuals at higher risk of infection attending sexual health services in the UK. This decision was made after reviewing evidence from retrospective and prospective observational studies, laboratory and clinical data, national surveillance reports, and health economic analyses. In this Review, we summarise the epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease and gonorrhoea in England, the evidence supporting the use of 4CMenB for protection against gonorrhoea, and the data needed to inform long-term programme planning and extension to the wider population.

Quantification of stimulus-evoked tactile allodynia in free moving mice by the chainmail sensitivity test.

Chronic pain occurs at epidemic levels throughout the population. Hypersensitivity to touch, is a cardinal symptom of chronic pain. Despite dedicated research for over a century, quantifying this hypersensitivity has remained impossible at scale. To address these issues, we developed the Chainmail Sensitivity Test (CST). Our results show that control mice spend significantly more time on the chainmail portion of the device than mice subject to neuropathy. Treatment with gabapentin abolishes this difference. CST-derived data correlate well with von Frey measurements and quantify hypersensitivity due to inflammation. Our study demonstrates the potential of the CST as a standardized tool for assessing mechanical hypersensitivity in mice with minimal operator input.

Erratum to "Risk of cardiac arrhythmia and cardiac arrest after primary and booster COVID-19 vaccination in England: A self-controlled case series analysis" [Vaccine: X 15 (2023) 100418].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.jvacx.2023.100418.].

The risk of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) following covid-19 vaccination in England: A self-controlled case-series analysis.

Acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) has been identified as an Adverse Event of Special Interest in the COVID-19 vaccine programme due to its long-standing temporal association with a wide range of other vaccines. Case reports of ADEM shortly following COVID-19 vaccination have now been documented. There were 217 ADEM admissions in 215 individuals in the period 8th December 2020 to 31st March 2023. An increased risk of ADEM following the first dose of ChAdOx1 vaccine was observed (relative incidence (RI) = 3.13, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) [1.56-6.25]) with a vaccine attributable risk of 0.39 per million doses. When doses 1 and 2 were combined this increased risk remained just significant (1.96 [95%CI 1.01-3.82]). No significant increased risk was observed with any other vaccine or dose. This small, elevated risk after the first dose of ChAdOx1-S vaccine demonstrates how large national electronic datasets can be used to identify very rare risks and provides reassurance that any risk of ADEM following the ChAdOx1-S COVID-19 vaccination is extremely small. Given the rarity of this risk, further studies in settings with access to data on large populations should be carried out to verify these findings.

Influenza vaccination during the 2021/22 season: A data-linkage test-negative case-control study of effectiveness against influenza requiring emergency care in England and serological analysis of primary care patients.

We present England 2021/22 end-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against laboratory confirmed influenza related emergency care use in children aged 1-17 and in adults aged 50+, and serological findings in vaccinated vs unvaccinated adults by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Influenza vaccination has been routinely offered to all children aged 2-10 years and adults aged 65 years + in England. In 2021/22, the offer was extended to children to age 15 years, and adults aged 50-64 years. Influenza activity rose during the latter half of the 2021/22 season, while remaining comparatively low due to COVID-19 pandemic control measures. Influenza A(H3N2) strains predominated. A test negative design was used to estimate aVE by vaccine type. Cases and controls were identified within a sentinel laboratory surveillance system. Vaccine histories were obtained from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS), an influenza and COVID-19 vaccine registry. These were linked to emergency department presentations (excluding accidents) with respiratory swabbing ≤ 14 days before or ≤ 7 days after presentation. Amongst adults, 423 positive and 32,917 negative samples were eligible for inclusion, and 145 positive and 6,438 negative samples among children. Those admitted to hospital were further identified. In serology against the circulating A(H3N2) A/Bangladesh/4005/2020-like strain, 61 % of current season adult vaccinees had titres ≥ 1:40 compared to 17 % of those unvaccinated in 2020/21 or 2021/22 (p < 0.001). We found good protection from influenza vaccination against influenza requiring emergency care in children (72.7 % [95 % CI 52.7, 84.3 %]) and modest effectiveness in adults (26.1 % [95 % CI 4.5, 42.8 %]). Adult VE was higher for A(H1N1) (81 % [95 % CI 50, 93 %]) than A(H3N2) (33 % [95 % CI 6, 53 %]). Consistent protection was observable across preschool, primary and secondary school aged children. Imperfect test specificity combined with very low prevalence may have biased estimates towards null. With limited influenza circulation, the study could not determine differences by vaccine types.

Association between COVID-19 Vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 Infection among Household Contacts of Infected Individuals: A Prospective Household Study in England.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether COVID-19 vaccination reduced SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among adult household contacts of COVID-19 index cases during the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron waves in England. METHODS: Between February 2021 and February 2022, SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR nasal swabs were collected from COVID-19-confirmed index cases aged ≥20 years and their household contacts at enrolment and three and seven days thereafter. Generalized Estimating Equations models were fitted with SARS-CoV-2 positivity as the outcome and household contacts' vaccination status as the main exposure while adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed in 238/472 household contacts (50.4%) aged ≥20 years. The adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval) of infection in vaccinated versus unvaccinated household contacts was 0.50 (0.35-0.72) and 0.69 (0.53-0.90) for receipt of two doses 8-90 and >90 days ago, respectively, and 0.34 (0.23-0.50) for vaccination with three doses 8-151 days ago. Primary vaccination protected household contacts against infection during the Alpha and Delta waves, but only three doses protected during the Omicron wave. Vaccination with three doses in the index case independently reduced contacts' infection risk: 0.45 (0.23-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination of household contacts reduces their risk of infection under conditions of household exposure though, for Omicron, only after a booster dose.

The role of real-world evidence for regulatory and public health decision-making for Accelerated Vaccine Deployment- a meeting report.

The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the need for rapid evidence generation to inform public health decisions beyond the limitations of conventional clinical trials. This report summarises presentations and discussions from a conference on the role of Real-World Evidence (RWE) in expediting vaccine deployment. Attended by regulatory bodies, public health entities, and industry experts, the gathering was a collaborative exchange of experiences and recommendations for leveraging RWE for vaccine deployment. RWE proved instrumental in refining decision-making processes to optimise dosing regimens, enhance guidance on target populations, and steer vaccination strategies against emerging variants. Participants felt that RWE was successfully integrated into lifecycle management, encompassing boosters and safety considerations. However, challenges emerged, prompting a call for improvements in data quality, standardisation, and availability, acknowledging the variability and potential inaccuracies in data across diverse healthcare systems. Regulatory transparency should also be prioritised to foster public trust, and improved collaborations with governments are needed to streamline data collection and navigate data privacy regulations. Moreover, building and sustaining resources, expertise, and infrastructure in LMICs emerged as imperative for RWE-generating capabilities. Continued stakeholder collaboration and securing adequate funding emerged as vital pillars for advancing the use of RWE in shaping responsive and effective public health strategies.

Invasive pneumococcal disease 3 years after introduction of a reduced 1 + 1 infant 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine immunisation schedule in England: a prospective national observational surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: The UK transition from a 2 + 1 to a 1 + 1 infant immunisation schedule with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) on Jan 1, 2020, coincided with the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe the epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in England over 6 financial years (April 1 to March 31) between 2017-18 and 2022-23. METHODS: We used prospective national surveillance data, including serotyping and whole-genome sequencing of invasive isolates, to analyse IPD trends in England by age and financial year. We compared breakthrough infections and vaccine failure rates in 2022-23 among children eligible for the 1 + 1 schedule with rates in cohorts of children eligible for the 2 + 1 schedule between 2017-18 and 2019-20. We assessed genomic changes over time by comparing Global Pneumococcal Sequencing Clusters and multilocus sequence types among PCV13 serotypes causing IPD. FINDINGS: There were 4598 laboratory-confirmed IPD cases in 2022-23, 3025 in 2021-22, 1240 in 2020-21, and 5316 in 2019-20. IPD incidence in 2022-23 was 14% lower than in 2019-20 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·86, 95% CI 0·81-0·91; p<0·001). IPD incidence in 2022-23 compared with 2019-20 was 34% higher in children (aged <15 years) (378 cases vs 292 cases; IRR 1·34, 95% CI 1·08-1·68; p=0·009) and 17% lower in adults (aged 15 years and older; 4220 vs 5024; 0·83, 0·78-0·88; p<0·001). The proportion of PCV13-type IPD increased from 19·4% (95% CI 18·2-20·4; 957 of 4947) in 2019-20 to 29·7% (28·3-31·0; 1283 of 4326) in 2022-23, mainly due to serotype 3, but also serotypes 19F, 19A, and 4, alongside a decrease in non-PCV13 serotypes 8, 12F, and 9N. The increase in IPD incidence due to serotypes 3, 19A, and 19F was driven by clonal expansion of previously circulating strains, whereas serotype 4 expansion was driven by newer strains (ie, sequence types 801 and 15603). Breakthrough infections and vaccine failure rates were similar in children eligible for the 1 + 1 (1·07 per 100 000 person-years) and 2 + 1 (0·76 per 100 000 person-years; IRR 1·42, 95% CI 0·78-2·49; p=0·20) PCV13 schedules. INTERPRETATION: Overall, IPD incidence in England was lower in 2022-23, 2 years after removal of pandemic restrictions, than in 2019-20. Breakthrough and vaccine failure rates were not significantly different between children who received the 1 + 1 compared with the 2 + 1 PCV13 immunisation schedule. The post-pandemic increase in childhood IPD incidence and especially PCV13-type IPD will require close monitoring. FUNDING: None.

The impact of vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 variants on the virological response to SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron waves in England.

Vaccination status and the SARS-CoV-2 variant individuals are infected with are known to independently impact viral dynamics; however, little is known about the interaction of these two factors and how this impacts viral dynamics. Here we investigated how monovalent vaccination modified the time course and viral load of infections from different variants. Regression analyses were used to investigate the impact of vaccination on cycle threshold values and disease severity, and interval-censored survival analyses were used to investigate the impact of vaccination on duration of positivity. A range of covariates were adjusted for as potential confounders and investigated for their own effects in exploratory analyses. All analyses were done combining all variants and stratified by variant. For those infected with Alpha or Delta, vaccinated individuals were more likely to report mild disease than moderate/severe disease and had significantly shorter duration of positivity and lower viral loads compared to unvaccinated individuals. Vaccination had no impact on self-reported disease severity, viral load, or duration if positivity for those infected with Omicron. Overall, individuals who were immunosuppressed and clinically extremely vulnerable had longer duration of positivity and higher viral loads. This study adds to the evidence base on disease dynamics following COVID-19, demonstrating that vaccination mitigates severity of disease, the amount of detectable virus within infected individuals and reduces the time individuals are positive for. However, these effects have been significantly attenuated since the emergence of Omicron. Therefore, our findings strengthen the argument for using modified or multivalent vaccines that target emerging variants.

Effects of BNT162b2 Messenger RNA Vaccine and ChAdOx1 Adenovirus Vector Vaccine on Deaths From COVID-19 in Adults Aged ≥70 Years.

We estimated the risk of death from coronavirus disease 2019 in vaccinated compared with unvaccinated patients. The risk of death was reduced 44% after 1 dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 vaccine, 55% after 1 dose of the Oxford-Astrazeneca ChAdOx1 vaccine, and 69% after 2 doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine. This is above the protection provided against infection.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against SARS-CoV-2 household transmission: a prospective cohort study in England.

Background: The ability of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to protect against infection and onward transmission determines whether immunisation can control global circulation. We estimated the effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2) and Oxford AstraZeneca adenovirus vector vaccine (ChAdOx1) vaccines against acquisition and transmission of the Alpha and Delta variants in a prospective household study in England. Methods: Households were recruited based on adult purported index cases testing positive after reverse transcription-quantitative (RT-q)PCR testing of oral-nasal swabs. Purported index cases and their household contacts took oral-nasal swabs on days 1, 3 and 7 after enrolment and a subset of the PCR-positive swabs underwent genomic sequencing conducted on a subset. We used Bayesian logistic regression to infer vaccine effectiveness against acquisition and transmission, adjusted for age, vaccination history and variant. Results: Between 2 February 2021 and 10 September 2021, 213 index cases and 312 contacts were followed up. After excluding households lacking genomic proximity (N=2) or with unlikely serial intervals (N=16), 195 households with 278 contacts remained, of whom 113 (41%) became PCR positive. Delta lineages had 1.53 times the risk (95% Credible Interval: 1.04 - 2.20) of transmission than Alpha; contacts older than 18 years old were 1.48 (1.20 - 1.91) and 1.02 (0.93 - 1.16) times more likely to acquire an Alpha or Delta infection than children. Effectiveness of two doses of BNT162b2 against transmission of Delta was 36% (-1%, 66%) and 49% (18%, 73%) for ChAdOx1, similar to their effectiveness for Alpha. Protection against infection with Alpha was higher than for Delta, 69% (9%, 95%) vs. 18% (-11%, 59%), respectively, for BNT162b2 and 24% (-41%, 72%) vs. 9% (-15%, 42%), respectively, for ChAdOx1. Conclusions: BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 reduce transmission of the Delta variant from breakthrough infections in the household setting, although their protection against infection within this setting is low.

Mixture modelling of Bordetella pertussis serology samples to evaluate anti-pertussis toxin immunoglobulin G titre thresholds for positivity: England 2008-2022.

Introduction. Antibody testing for evidence of a recent Bordetella pertussis infection by estimating anti-pertussis toxin immunoglobulin G (anti-PT-IgG) titres by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays is often recommended for those with a cough lasting more than 14 days. Interpreting results varies, with studies recommending different anti-PT-IgG titre thresholds for assigning positivity. In England, early work looking at antibody titre distributions for samples submitted from April 2010 to July 2012 found an optimal threshold of greater than 70 IU ml-1 for good sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value.Aim. The aim of this study is to use the same mixture modelling technique to determine if the 70 IU ml-1 threshold remains appropriate when assessing data before, during and after the outbreak of pertussis in 2011-2012.Methods. We reviewed titres for all serology-tested samples in England between 1 July 2008 to 30 June 2022. IgG titres were used to calculate the positivity based on the current threshold of 70 IU ml-1, the median duration of cough for individuals who tested positive and, through mixture modelling, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) of assay thresholds.Results. Positivity rates increased from 21.7 % prior to the outbreak to 30.3 % during the outbreak and dropped to 25.1 % post-outbreak; similar to estimates from the mixture model of 20.5, 33.3 and 28.7 %, respectively. Although the estimated sensitivity dropped during and after the outbreak when applying the 70 IU ml-1 threshold, the PPV remained high and therefore no change to this threshold is warranted.Conclusion. Mixture modelling is a useful tool to establish thresholds, but reassessment should also be done when there have been changes to prevalence and/or testing regimes to determine whether there have been any changes in sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV and whether the threshold should be revised.

Risk of cardiac arrhythmia and cardiac arrest after primary and booster COVID-19 vaccination in England: A self-controlled case series analysis.

Background: Various cardiac arrhythmias have been reported after COVID-19 infection and vaccination. We assessed the risk after primary immunisation with the ChAdOx1 adenovirus vectored vaccine, and primary and booster immunisation with an mRNA vaccine in 40 million vaccinated adults with 121 million doses (33.9% ChAdOx1 and 66.1% mRNA) in England. Methods: Hospital admissions for a cardiac arrhythmia and emergency care attendance for a cardiac arrest in individuals aged 18 years and older on the 31st March 2021 were linked to the national COVID-19 immunisation register. The incidence of events 1-14 and 15-28 days after vaccination relative to a post-vaccination control period was estimated using the self-controlled case series method modified for fatal events. Outcomes were stratified by arrhythmia type, vaccine type, age group and dose number (up to five). Elevated relative incidence (RI) estimates with p < 0.001 were considered strong evidence of an association. Findings: There was an increased risk of admission for arrhythmia events that were largely palpitations without myocarditis within 14 days of a second priming dose of an mRNA vaccine in 18-49 year olds with an RI of 1.66 (95 % confidence interval 1.47,1.86) for BNT162b2 and 3.75 (2.52,5.57) for mRNA-1273 (p < 0.001) and also after a first booster dose, 1.34 (1.17,1.53) and 1.75 (1.43,2.15) respectively (p < 0.001). No other cardiac arrhythmia, including cardiac arrest, showed an elevated incidence within 28 days of vaccination for any dose, age group or vaccine type. In contrast the risk of a cardiac arrhythmia of all types, including a cardiac arrest, was consistently elevated in those testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Interpretation: Our study provides reassuring evidence of the safety of the ChAdOx1 and mRNA COVID-19 vaccines with respect to serious cardiac arrhythmias and of the favourable risk benefit of mRNA booster vaccination.

Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation estimated using a test-negative case-control study design, and comparative odds of hospital admission and severe outcomes with COVID-19 sub-lineages BQ.1, CH.1.1. and XBB.1.5 in England.

Background: Since the first emergence of Omicron BA.1 in England in November 2021, numerous sub-lineages have evolved. In September 2022, BA.5 dominated. The prevalence of BQ.1 increased from October, while the prevalence of CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 increased from December 2022 and January 2023, respectively. Little is known about the effectiveness of the vaccines against hospitalisation with these sub-lineages, nor the relative severity, so we here used national-level electronic health records from England to estimate vaccine effectiveness and variant severity. Methods: The study period for tests contributing to all analyses was from 5th December 2022 to 2nd April 2023, when the variants of interest were co-circulating. A test-negative case-control study was used to estimate the incremental effectiveness of the bivalent BA.1 booster vaccines against hospitalisation, relative to those with waned immunity where the last dose was at least 6 months prior. The odds of hospital admission for those testing PCR positive on the day of an attendance to accident and emergency departments and the odds of intensive care unit admission or death amongst COVID-19 admissions were compared between variants. Additionally, a Cox proportional hazards survival regression was used to investigate length of stay amongst hospitalised cases by variant. Findings: Our vaccine effectiveness study included 191,229 eligible tests with 1647 BQ.1 cases, 877 CH.1.1 cases, 1357 XBB.1.5 cases and 187,348 test negative controls. There was no difference in incremental vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation with BQ.1, CH.1.1 or XBB.1.5, nor was there a difference in the severity of these variants. Effectiveness against hospitalisation was 48.0% (95% C.I.; 38.5-56.0%), 29.7% (95% C.I.; 7.5-46.6%) and 52.7% (95% C.I.; 24.6-70.4%) against BQ.1, CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5, respectively, at 5-9 weeks post booster vaccination. Compared to BQ.1, the odds of hospital admission were 0.87 (95% C.I.; 0.77-0.99) and 0.88 (95% C.I.; 0.75-1.02) for CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 cases attending accident and emergency departments, respectively. There was no significant difference in the odds of admission to intensive care units or death for those with CH.1.1 (OR 0.96, 95% C.I.; 0.71-1.30) or XBB.1.5 (OR 0.67, 95% C.I.; 0.44-1.02) compared to BQ.1. There was also no significant difference in the length of hospital stay by variant. Interpretation: Together, these results provide reassuring evidence that the bivalent BA.1 booster vaccines provide similar protection against hospitalisation with BQ.1, CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5, and that the emergent CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 sub-lineages do not cause more severe disease than BQ.1. Funding: None.

Protection from infection and reinfection due to the Omicron BA.1 variant in care homes.

Introduction: Following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, care homes were disproportionately impacted by high mortality and morbidity of vulnerable elderly residents. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and improved infection control measures together with vaccination campaigns have since improved outcomes of infection. We studied the utility of past infection status, recent vaccination and anti-S antibody titres as possible correlates of protection against a newly emergent Omicron variant infection. Methods: Prospective longitudinal surveillance of nine sentinel London care homes from April 2020 onwards found that all experienced COVID-19 outbreaks due to Omicron (BA.1) during December 2021 and January 2022, despite extensive prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure and high COVID-19 vaccination rates, including booster vaccines (>70% residents, >40% staff). Results: Detailed investigation showed that 46% (133/288) of Omicron BA.1 infections were SARS-CoV-2 reinfections. Two and three COVID-19 vaccine doses were protective against Omicron infection within 2-9 weeks of vaccination, though protection waned from 10 weeks post-vaccination. Prior infection provided additional protection in vaccinated individuals, approximately halving the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Discussion: Anti-S antibody titre showed a dose-dependent protective effect but did not fully account for the protection provided by vaccination or past infection, indicating that other mechanisms of protection are also involved.