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1.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 4803, 2019 Oct 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31641117

RESUMO

Features of the QRS complex of the electrocardiogram, reflecting ventricular depolarisation, associate with various physiologic functions and several pathologic conditions. We test 32.5 million variants for association with ten measures of the QRS complex in 12 leads, using 405,732 electrocardiograms from 81,192 Icelanders. We identify 190 associations at 130 loci, the majority of which have not been reported before, including associations with 21 rare or low-frequency coding variants. Assessment of genes expressed in the heart yields an additional 13 rare QRS coding variants at 12 loci. We find 51 unreported associations between the QRS variants and echocardiographic traits and cardiovascular diseases, including atrial fibrillation, complete AV block, heart failure and supraventricular tachycardia. We demonstrate the advantage of in-depth analysis of the QRS complex in conjunction with other cardiovascular phenotypes to enhance our understanding of the genetic basis of myocardial mass, cardiac conduction and disease.

2.
Eur J Prev Cardiol ; : 2047487319877078, 2019 Oct 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31619084

RESUMO

AIMS: Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration (n = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events. CONCLUSION: Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints.

4.
Eur Heart J ; 2019 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31504409

RESUMO

AIMS: Low-grade inflammation, measured by elevated plasma concentrations of high-sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP), is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is evidence that low-grade inflammation is also related to a higher risk of cancer. The present prospective cohort study evaluates the relation between low-grade systemic inflammation and risk of cancer in patients with stable CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: In total, 7178 patients with stable CVD and plasma CRP levels ≤10 mg/L were included. Data were linked to the Dutch national cancer registry. Cox regression models were fitted to study the relation between CRP and incident CVD and cancer. After a median follow-up time of 8.3 years (interquartile range 4.6-12.3) 1072 incident cancer diagnoses were observed. C-reactive protein concentration was related to total cancer [hazard ratio (HR) 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.65] comparing last quintile to first quintile of CRP. Especially lung cancer, independent of histopathological subtype, was related to CRP (HR 3.39; 95% CI 2.02-5.69 comparing last to first quintile of CRP). Incidence of epithelial neoplasms and especially squamous cell neoplasms were related to CRP concentration, irrespective of anatomical location. Sensitivity analyses after excluding patients with a cancer diagnosis within 1, 2, and 5 years of follow-up showed similar results. No effect modification was observed by smoking status or time since smoking cessation (P-values for interaction > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Chronic systemic low-grade inflammation, measured by CRP levels ≤10 mg/L, is a risk factor for incident cancer, markedly lung cancer, in patients with stable CVD. The relation between inflammation and incident cancer is seen in former and current smokers and is uncertain in never smokers.

5.
N Engl J Med ; 381(17): 1621-1631, 2019 10 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31479209

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) benefit from genotype-guided selection of oral P2Y12 inhibitors. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, open-label, assessor-blinded trial in which patients undergoing primary PCI with stent implantation were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either a P2Y12 inhibitor on the basis of early CYP2C19 genetic testing (genotype-guided group) or standard treatment with either ticagrelor or prasugrel (standard-treatment group) for 12 months. In the genotype-guided group, carriers of CYP2C19*2 or CYP2C19*3 loss-of-function alleles received ticagrelor or prasugrel, and noncarriers received clopidogrel. The two primary outcomes were net adverse clinical events - defined as death from any cause, myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, stroke, or major bleeding defined according to Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO) criteria - at 12 months (primary combined outcome; tested for noninferiority, with a noninferiority margin of 2 percentage points for the absolute difference) and PLATO major or minor bleeding at 12 months (primary bleeding outcome). RESULTS: For the primary analysis, 2488 patients were included: 1242 in the genotype-guided group and 1246 in the standard-treatment group. The primary combined outcome occurred in 63 patients (5.1%) in the genotype-guided group and in 73 patients (5.9%) in the standard-treatment group (absolute difference, -0.7 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.0 to 0.7; P<0.001 for noninferiority). The primary bleeding outcome occurred in 122 patients (9.8%) in the genotype-guided group and in 156 patients (12.5%) in the standard-treatment group (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.98; P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing primary PCI, a CYP2C19 genotype-guided strategy for selection of oral P2Y12 inhibitor therapy was noninferior to standard treatment with ticagrelor or prasugrel at 12 months with respect to thrombotic events and resulted in a lower incidence of bleeding. (Funded by the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development; POPular Genetics ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01761786; Netherlands Trial Register number, NL2872.).


Assuntos
Clopidogrel/uso terapêutico , Trombose Coronária/prevenção & controle , Citocromo P-450 CYP2C19/genética , Genótipo , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea , Antagonistas do Receptor Purinérgico P2Y/uso terapêutico , Infarto do Miocárdio com Supradesnível do Segmento ST/terapia , Administração Oral , Idoso , Clopidogrel/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Hemorragia/induzido quimicamente , Humanos , Análise de Intenção de Tratamento , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Cloridrato de Prasugrel/efeitos adversos , Cloridrato de Prasugrel/uso terapêutico , Medicina de Precisão , Antagonistas do Receptor Purinérgico P2Y/efeitos adversos , Infarto do Miocárdio com Supradesnível do Segmento ST/tratamento farmacológico , Infarto do Miocárdio com Supradesnível do Segmento ST/genética , Método Simples-Cego , Stents , Ticagrelor/efeitos adversos , Ticagrelor/uso terapêutico
6.
Eur J Heart Fail ; 2019 Sep 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31478583

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Beta-blockers reduce mortality and morbidity in heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, patients older than 80 years are poorly represented in randomized controlled trials. We assessed the association between beta-blocker use and outcomes in HFrEF patients aged ≥80 years. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included patients with an ejection fraction <40% and aged ≥80 years from the Swedish HF Registry. The association between beta-blocker use, all-cause mortality and cardiovascular (CV) mortality/HF hospitalization was assessed by Cox proportional hazard models in a 1:1 propensity score-matched cohort. To assess consistency, the same analyses were performed in a positive control cohort with age <80 years. A negative control outcome analysis was run using hospitalization for cancer as endpoint. Of 6562 patients aged ≥80 years, 5640 (86%) received beta-blockers. In the matched cohort including 1732 patients, beta-blocker use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.99]. Reduction in CV mortality/HF hospitalization was not significant (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.85-1.05) due to the lack of association with HF hospitalization, whereas CV death was significantly reduced. After adjustment rather than matching for the propensity score in the overall cohort, beta-blocker use was associated with reduced risk of all outcomes. In patients aged <80 years, use of beta-blockers was associated with reduced risk of all-cause death (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.68-0.92) and of the composite outcome (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.77-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: In HFrEF patients ≥80 years of age, use of beta-blockers was high and was associated with improved all-cause and CV survival.

7.
Toxins (Basel) ; 11(8)2019 Aug 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31382511

RESUMO

Indoxyl sulfate (IS) is an accumulative protein-bound uremic toxin found in patients with kidney disease. It is reported that IS impairs the vascular endothelium, but a comprehensive overview of all mechanisms active in IS-injury currently remains lacking. Here we performed RNA sequencing in human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) after IS or control medium treatment and identified 1293 genes that were affected in a IS-induced response. Gene enrichment analysis highlighted pathways involved in altered vascular formation and cell metabolism. We confirmed these transcriptome profiles at the functional level by demonstrating decreased viability and increased cell senescence in response to IS treatment. In line with the additional pathways highlighted by the transcriptome analysis, we further could demonstrate that IS exposure of HUVECs promoted tubule formation as shown by the increase in total tubule length in a 3D HUVECs/pericytes co-culture assay. Notably, the pro-angiogenic response of IS and increased ROS production were abolished when CYP1B1, one of the main target genes that was highly upregulated by IS, was silenced. This observation indicates IS-induced ROS in endothelial cells is CYP1B1-dependent. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that IS promotes angiogenesis and CYP1B1 is an important factor in IS-activated angiogenic response.

8.
JACC Heart Fail ; 7(8): 637-647, 2019 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31302040

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to determine whether combinations of specific Life's Simple 7 (LS7) components are associated with reduced risk for heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association recommends the concept of LS7: healthy behaviors that have been shown to reduce cardiovascular disease. METHODS: A total of 37,803 participants from the EPIC-NL (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands) cohort were included (mean age: 49.4 ± 11.9 years, 74.7% women). The LS7 score ranged from 0 to 14 and was calculated by assigning 0, 1, or 2 points for smoking, physical activity, body mass index, diet, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and blood glucose. An overall ideal score (11 to 14 points) was present in 23.2% of participants, an intermediate score (9 or 10 points) in 35.3%, and an inadequate score (0 to 8 points) in 41.5%. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 15.2 years (interquartile range: 14.1 to 16.5 years), 690 participants (1.8%) developed HF. In Cox proportional hazards models, ideal and intermediate LS7 scores were associated with reduced risk for HF compared with the inadequate category (hazard ratio: 0.45 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.34 to 0.60] and hazard ratio: 0.53 [95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64], respectively). Our analyses show that combinations with specific LS7 components, notably glucose, body mass index, smoking, and blood pressure, are associated with a lower incidence of HF. CONCLUSIONS: A healthy lifestyle, as reflected in an ideal LS7 score, was associated with a 55% lower risk for HF compared with an inadequate LS7 score. Preventive strategies that target combinations of specific LS7 components could have a significant impact on decreasing incident HF in the population at large.

9.
Int J Cardiol ; 2019 Jul 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31353156

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Impaired renal function predicts mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but its evolution immediately following index ACS and preceding next ACS has not been described in detail. We aimed to describe this evolution using serial measurements of creatinine, glomerular filtration rate [eGFRCr] and cystatin C [CysC]. METHODS: From 844 ACS patients included in the BIOMArCS study, we analysed patient-specific longitudinal marker trajectories from the case-cohort of 187 patients to determine the risk of the endpoint (cardiovascular death or hospitalization for recurrent non-fatal ACS) during 1-year follow-up. Study included only patients with eGFRCr ≥ 30 ml/min/1.73 m2. Survival analyses were adjusted for GRACE risk score and based on data >30 days after the index ACS (mean of 8 sample per patient). RESULTS: Mean age was 63 years, 79% were men, 43% had STEMI, and 67% were in eGFR stages 2-3. During hospitalization for index ACS (median [IQR] duration: 5 (3-7) days), CysC levels indicated deterioration of renal function earlier than creatinine did (CysC peaked on day 3, versus day 6 for creatinine), and both stabilized after two weeks. Higher CysC levels, but not creatinine, predicted the endpoint independently of the GRACE score within the first year after index ACS (adjusted HR [95% CI] per 1SD increase: 1.68 [1.03-2.74]). CONCLUSION: Immediately following index ACS, plasma CysC levels deteriorate earlier than creatinine-based indices do, but neither marker stabilizes during hospitalization but on average two weeks after ACS. Serially measured CysC levels predict mortality or recurrence of ACS during 1-year follow-up independently of patients' GRACE risk score.

10.
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak ; 19(1): 108, 2019 06 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31182084

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular risk management (CVRM) is notoriously difficult because of multi-morbidity and the different phenotypes and severities of cardiovascular disease. Computerized decision support systems (CDSS) enable the clinician to integrate the latest scientific evidence and patient information into tailored strategies. The effect on cardiovascular risk factor management is yet to be confirmed. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating the effects of CDSS on CVRM, defined as the change in absolute values and attainment of treatment goals of systolic blood pressure (SBP), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and HbA1c. Also, CDSS characteristics related to more effective CVRM were identified. Eligible articles were methodologically appraised using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. We calculated mean differences, relative risks, and if appropriate (I2 < 70%), pooled the results using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Of the 14,335 studies identified, 22 were included. Four studies reported on SBP, 3 on LDL-c, 10 on CVRM in patients with type II diabetes and 5 on guideline adherence. The CDSSs varied considerably in technical performance and content. Heterogeneity of results was such that quantitative pooling was often not appropriate. Among CVRM patients, the results tended towards a beneficial effect of CDSS, but only LDL-c target attainment in diabetes patients reached statistical significance. Prompting, integration into the electronical health record, patient empowerment, and medication support were related to more effective CVRM. CONCLUSION: We did not find a clear clinical benefit from CDSS in cardiovascular risk factor levels and target attainment. Some features of CDSS seem more promising than others. However, the variability in CDSS characteristics and heterogeneity of the results - emphasizing the immaturity of this research area - limit stronger conclusions. Clinical relevance of CDSS in CVRM might additionally be sought in the improvement of shared decision making and patient empowerment.

11.
Cell ; 178(1): 242-260.e29, 2019 Jun 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31155234

RESUMO

Gene expression in human tissue has primarily been studied on the transcriptional level, largely neglecting translational regulation. Here, we analyze the translatomes of 80 human hearts to identify new translation events and quantify the effect of translational regulation. We show extensive translational control of cardiac gene expression, which is orchestrated in a process-specific manner. Translation downstream of predicted disease-causing protein-truncating variants appears to be frequent, suggesting inefficient translation termination. We identify hundreds of previously undetected microproteins, expressed from lncRNAs and circRNAs, for which we validate the protein products in vivo. The translation of microproteins is not restricted to the heart and prominent in the translatomes of human kidney and liver. We associate these microproteins with diverse cellular processes and compartments and find that many locate to the mitochondria. Importantly, dozens of microproteins are translated from lncRNAs with well-characterized noncoding functions, indicating previously unrecognized biology.

12.
BMJ Open ; 9(6): e028408, 2019 Jun 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31171553

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) is a common condition in both sexes that may deteriorate into heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (pEF), although this seems to happen more often in women than in men. Both LVDD and HFpEF often go unrecognised, necessitating the discovery of biomarkers that aid both the identification of individuals with LVDD at risk of developing HF and identification of individuals most likely to benefit from treatment. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: HELPFul is an ongoing case-cohort study at a Dutch cardiology outpatient clinic enrolling patients aged 45 years and older without history of cardiovascular disease, who were referred by the general practitioner for cardiac evaluation. We included a random sample of patients and enriched the cohort with cases (defined as an E/e' ≥8 measured with echocardiography). Information about medical history, cardiovascular risk factors, electrocardiography, echocardiography, exercise test performance, common carotid intima-media thickness measurement and standard cardiovascular biomarkers was obtained from the routine care data collected by the cardiology outpatient clinic. Study procedure consists of extensive venous blood collection for biobanking and additional standardised questionnaires. Follow-up will consist of standardised questionnaires by mail and linkage to regional and national registries. We will perform cardiac magnetic resonance imaging and coronary CT angiography in a subgroup of patients to investigate the extent of macrovascular and microvascular coronary disease. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the University Medical Center Utrecht. Results will be disseminated through national and international conferences and in peer-reviewed journals in cardiovascular disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NTR6016;Pre-results.

14.
Am J Cardiol ; 124(1): 8-13, 2019 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31047655

RESUMO

Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) has appeared as a promising biomarker with strong predictive abilities in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, studies are solely based on single measurements in the acute phase of an ACS event. The way GDF-15 patterns in post-ACS patients behave on the long term is largely unknown. We conducted a nested case-control study within our multicenter, prospective, observational biomarker study (BIOMArCS) of 844 ACS patients. Following an index ACS event, high-frequency blood sampling was performed during 1-year of follow-up. GDF-15 was determined batchwise by electrochemiluminescence immunoassays in 37 cases with a recurrent event during 1-year follow-up, and in 74 event-free controls. Cases and controls had a mean ± standard deviation age of 66.9 ± 11.3 years and 81% were men. From 30 days onwards, patients showed stable levels, which were on average 333 (95% confidence interval 68 to 647) pg/mL higher in cases than controls (1704 vs 1371 pg/mL; p value 0.013). Additionally, in the post 30-day period, GDF-15 showed low within-individual variability in both cases and controls. In conclusion, post-ACS patients experiencing a recurrent event had stable and systematically higher GDF-15 levels during 30-day to 1-year follow-up than their event-free counterparts with otherwise similar clinical characteristics. Thus, postdischarge blood sampling might be used throughout the course of 1 year to improve prognostication, whereas, in view of the low within-individual variation, the number of repeated sampling moments might be limited.

15.
Am Heart J ; 216: 143-146, 2019 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31053235

RESUMO

Prior studies reported that Myeloperoxidase and Galectin-3, which are biomarkers of coronary plaque vulnerability, are elevated in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. We studied the temporal evolution of these biomarkers early after ACS admission and prior to a recurrent ACS event during 1 year follow-up.

16.
Genet Epidemiol ; 43(6): 717-726, 2019 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31145509

RESUMO

A typical task arising from main effect analyses in a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) is to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), in linkage disequilibrium with the observed signals, that are likely causal variants and the affected genes. The affected genes may not be those closest to associating SNPs. Functional genomics data from relevant tissues are believed to be helpful in selecting likely causal SNPs and interpreting implicated biological mechanisms, ultimately facilitating prevention and treatment in the case of a disease trait. These data are typically used post GWAS analyses to fine-map the statistically significant signals identified agnostically by testing all SNPs and applying a multiple testing correction. The number of tested SNPs is typically in the millions, so the multiple testing burden is high. Motivated by this, in this study we investigated an alternative workflow, which consists in utilizing the available functional genomics data as a first step to reduce the number of SNPs tested for association. We analyzed GWAS on electrocardiographic QRS duration using these two workflows. The alternative workflow identified more SNPs, including some residing in loci not discovered with the typical workflow. Moreover, the latter are corroborated by other reports on QRS duration. This indicates the potential value of incorporating functional genomics information at the onset in GWAS analyses.


Assuntos
Cardiomiopatias/genética , Regulação da Expressão Gênica , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Transcriptoma , Humanos , Desequilíbrio de Ligação , Fenótipo , Regiões Promotoras Genéticas , Fluxo de Trabalho
17.
Circ Genom Precis Med ; 12(5): e002436, 2019 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31112426

RESUMO

Background Truncating titin variants (TTNtv) are the most prevalent genetic cause of dilated cardiomyopathy, found in ≤25% of familial cases. Moreover, TTNtv associated with dilated cardiomyopathy are estimated to be present in 0.5% of the general population. The prognosis of asymptomatic carriers of TTNtv is poorly understood because TTNtv are associated with a highly variable phenotype. We aim to assess the natural history and clinical relevance of TTNtv by analyzing standardized mortality ratios (SMR) in multigenerational pedigrees and in close relatives of present-day patients. Methods Haplotype and genealogical analyses were performed on 3 recurrent TTNtv. Subsequently, the family tree mortality ratio method was used to compare all-cause mortality of subjects at an a priori 50% risk of carrying TTNtv to the general Dutch population. SMRs were stratified for sex, age, and calendar period. Subgroups were compared with Poisson regression. Similarly, SMRs were calculated in parents of 128 present-day dilated cardiomyopathy probands with TTNtv using the reverse parent-offspring method. Results The TTNtv were established as founder mutations and traced to 18th century ancestors. In 20 522 person-years, overall mortality was not significantly increased (SMR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.95-1.18; P=0.162). However, mortality was significantly increased in subjects living after 1965 (SMR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.04-1.53; P=0.009) and aged ≥60 years (SMR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.01-1.35; P=0.02). The reverse parent-offspring analysis showed overall excess mortality (SMR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.07-1.48; P=0.003), driven by subjects aged ≥60 years. Conclusions The natural history of the analyzed TTNtv shows a relatively mild disease course with significant excess mortality in elderly patients. With increasing life expectancy, TTNtv-associated morbidity and mortality will likely become more prevalent.

18.
Eur Heart J ; 40(23): 1850-1858, 2019 Jun 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30915475

RESUMO

AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is characterized by ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). We aimed to develop a model for individualized prediction of incident VA/SCD in ARVC patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five hundred and twenty-eight patients with a definite diagnosis and no history of sustained VAs/SCD at baseline, aged 38.2 ± 15.5 years, 44.7% male, were enrolled from five registries in North America and Europe. Over 4.83 (interquartile range 2.44-9.33) years of follow-up, 146 (27.7%) experienced sustained VA, defined as SCD, aborted SCD, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. A prediction model estimating annual VA risk was developed using Cox regression with internal validation. Eight potential predictors were pre-specified: age, sex, cardiac syncope in the prior 6 months, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, number of premature ventricular complexes in 24 h, number of leads with T-wave inversion, and right and left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). All except LVEF were retained in the final model. The model accurately distinguished patients with and without events, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.81] and minimal over-optimism [calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.95)]. By decision curve analysis, the clinical benefit of the model was superior to a current consensus-based ICD placement algorithm with a 20.6% reduction of ICD placements with the same proportion of protected patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Using the largest cohort of patients with ARVC and no prior VA, a prediction model using readily available clinical parameters was devised to estimate VA risk and guide decisions regarding primary prevention ICDs (www.arvcrisk.com).

20.
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