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1.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 376, 2021 Feb 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33602174

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The co-occurrence of mental and physical chronic conditions (mental-physical multimorbidity) is a growing and largely unaddressed challenge for health systems and wider economies in low-and middle-income countries. This study investigated the independent and combined (additive or synergistic) effects of mental and physical chronic conditions on disability, work productivity, and social participation in China. METHODS: Panel data study design utilised two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011, 2015), including 5616 participants aged ≥45 years, 12 physical chronic conditions and depression. We used a panel data approach of random-effects regression models to assess the relationships between mental-physical multimorbidity and outcomes. RESULTS: After adjusting for socio-economic and demographic factors, an increased number of physical chronic conditions was independently associated with a higher likelihood of disability (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.33, 1.45), early retirement (AOR = 1.37 [1.26, 1.49]) and increased sick leave days (1.25 days [1.16, 1.35]). Depression was independently associated with disability (AOR = 3.78 [3.30, 4.34]), increased sick leave days (2.18 days [1.72, 2.77]) and a lower likelihood of social participation (AOR = 0.57 [0.47, 0.70]), but not with early retirement (AOR = 1.24 [0.97, 1.58]). There were small and statistically insignificant interactions between physical chronic conditions and mental health on disability, work productivity and social participation, suggesting an additive effect of mental-physical multimorbidity on productivity loss. CONCLUSION: Mental-physical multimorbidity poses substantial negative health and economic effects on individuals, health systems, and societies. More research that addresses the challenges of mental-physical multimorbidity is needed to inform the development of interventions that can be applied to the workplace and the wider community in China.

2.
Circulation ; 2021 Feb 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33554610

RESUMO

Background: Current hypertension guidelines vary substantially in their definition of who should be offered blood-pressure-lowering medications. Understanding the impact of guideline choice on the proportion of adults who require treatment will be crucial for planning and scaling up hypertension care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: We extracted cross-sectional data on age, sex, blood pressure, hypertension treatment and diagnosis status, smoking, and body mass index for adults ages 30-70 from nationally representative surveys in 50 LMICs (N = 1,037,215). Our main objective was to determine the impact of hypertension guideline choice on the proportion of adults in need of blood-pressure-lowering medications. We considered four hypertension guidelines: the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline, the commonly used 140/90 mmHg threshold, the 2016 World Health Organization HEARTS guideline (WHO), and the 2019 United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline. Results: The proportion of adults in need of blood-pressure-lowering medications was highest under the ACC/AHA followed by the 140/90, NICE, and WHO guidelines (ACC/AHA: women, 27.7% [95% CI: 27.2%, 28.2%], men, 35.0% [34.4%, 35.7%]; 140/90: women: 26.1% [25.5%, 26.6%], men, 31.2% [30.6%, 31.9%]; NICE: women, 11.8% [11.4%, 12.1%]; men, 15.7% [15.3%, 16.2%]; WHO: women, 9.2% [8.9%, 9.5%], men, 11.0% [10.6%,11.4%]). Individuals who were unaware that they have hypertension were the primary contributor to differences in the proportion needing treatment under different guideline criteria. Differences in the proportion needing blood-pressure-lowering medications were largest in the oldest, 65-69, age group (ACC/AHA: women, 60.2% [58.8%, 61.6%], men, 70.1% [68.8%, 71.3%]; WHO: women, 20.1% [18.8%, 21.3%], men, 24.1.0% [22.3%, 25.9%]). For both women and men and across all guidelines, countries in the European and Eastern Mediterranean regions had the highest proportion of adults in need of blood-pressure-lowering medicines while the South and Central Americas had the lowest. Conclusions: There was substantial variation in the proportion of adults in need of blood-pressure-lowering medications depending on which hypertension guideline was used. Given the great implications of this choice for health system capacity, policymakers will need to carefully consider which guideline they should adopt when scaling up hypertension care in their country.

3.
BMJ Open ; 11(2): e041870, 2021 Feb 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33597135

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To examine non-communicable diseases (NCDs) multimorbidity level and its relation to households' socioeconomic characteristics, health service use, catastrophic health expenditures and productivity loss. DESIGN: This study used panel data of the Indonesian Family Life Survey conducted in 2007 (Wave 4) and 2014 (Wave 5). SETTING: The original sampling frame was based on 13 out of 27 provinces in 1993, representing 83% of the Indonesian population. PARTICIPANTS: We included respondents aged 50 years and above in 2007, excluding those who did not participate in both Waves 4 and 5. The total number of participants in this study are 3678 respondents. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We examined three main outcomes; health service use (outpatient and inpatient care), financial burden (catastrophic health expenditure) and productivity loss (labour participation, days primary activity missed, days confined in bed). We applied multilevel mixed-effects regression models to assess the associations between NCD multimorbidity and outcome variables, RESULTS: Women were more likely to have NCD multimorbidity than men and the prevalence of NCD multimorbidity increased with higher socioeconomic status. NCD multimorbidity was associated with a higher number of outpatient visits (compared with those without NCD, incidence rate ratio (IRR) 4.25, 95% CI 3.33 to 5.42 for individuals with >3 NCDs) and inpatient visits (IRR 3.68, 95% CI 2.21 to 6.12 for individuals with >3 NCDs). NCD multimorbidity was also associated with a greater likelihood of experiencing catastrophic health expenditure (for >3 NCDs, adjusted OR (aOR) 1.69, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.81) and lower participation in the labour force (aOR 0.23, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.33) compared with no NCD. CONCLUSIONS: NCD multimorbidity is associated with substantial direct and indirect costs to individuals, households and the wider society. Our study highlights the importance of preparing health systems for addressing the burden of multimorbidity in low-income and middle-income countries.

4.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(2)2021 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33632770

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Multimorbidity is a growing challenge in low-income and middle-income countries. This study investigates the effects of multimorbidity on annual medical costs and the out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPEs) along the cost distribution. METHODS: Data from the nationally representative China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS 2015), including 10 592 participants aged ≥45 years and 15 physical and mental chronic diseases, were used for this nationally representative cross-sectional study. Quantile multivariable regressions were employed to understand variations in the association of chronic disease multimorbidity with medical cost and OOPE. RESULTS: Overall, 69.5% of middle-aged and elderly Chinese had multimorbidity in 2015. Increased number of chronic diseases was significantly associated with greater health expenditures across every cost quantile groups. The effect of chronic diseases on total medical cost was found to be larger among the upper tail than those in the lower tail of the cost distributions (coefficients 12, 95% CI 6 to 17 for 10th percentile; coefficients 296, 95% CI 71 to 522 for 90th percentile). Annual OOPE also increased with chronic diseases from the 10th percentile to the 90th percentile. Multimorbidity had larger effects on OOPE and was more pronounced at the upper tail of the health expenditure distribution (regression coefficients of 8 and 84 at the 10th percentile and 75th percentile, respectively). CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity is associated with escalating healthcare costs in China. Further research is required to understand the impact of multimorbidity across different population groups.

5.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33590532

RESUMO

Demand for neonatal care in the United Kingdom (UK) has increased in recent years. This care is provided by neonatal services, which are chronically saturated due to years of budget austerity in the UK. The aim of this paper is to investigate the possible impact of increasing resources to these services to improve their operational performance and alleviate the pressure they are facing. To achieve this aim, a system dynamics (SD) simulation model was built and validated in a UK neonatal unit. The SD model was used initially to evaluate the impact of increasing resources on the unit performance and the results showed that this policy will have a limited effect on performance. The model was then extended to predict the effect of reducing the length of stay (LoS) in conjunction with increasing resources. These joint interventions will have a positive impact on the unit performance if LoS is reduced for all care categories and resources are slightly increased. Results' implications and SD's modelling usefulness to guide decision making in complex health settings are discussed.

6.
J Glob Health ; 10(2): 020426, 2020 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33274065

RESUMO

Background: Multimorbidity is a global challenge. It is more common in the elderly and deprived populations. Health systems are not providing appropriate care for people with multimorbidity as they are focused on managing single diseases and are not oriented to effectively manage complexity of care-coordination for multimorbidity. This study aims to examine trends, disparities and consequences of multimorbidity over a 10-year period. It also aims to analyze different multimorbidity clusters and their association with quality of life. Methods: This study analyzes Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey - a cross-sectional survey repeated each year of 100 000 individuals aged one or more in 192 regions of South Korea - for the 10-year period 2007-2016. This is a population-based study based on nationally representative survey data for 10 years in Korea. Our study included 68 590 adults aged 19 or more who answered questions on presence of diseases. 39 chronic conditions were included. Disease clustering by frequency, composition and number of diseases from the top 10 most common chronic conditions were used to establish patterns of multimorbidity clusters. We performed regression analyses to analyze annual trend and the prevalence of multimorbidity across socioeconomic strata. Regressions were performed to measure association between multimorbidity and unmet need, health care service utilization, sickness days, perceived health status, and EQ-5D. Results: Multimorbidity increased in the study period and was more prevalent in the elderly, females, and people with lower household income and education level. Multimorbidity was associated with increased unmet need, health care utilization and sickness days and reduced perceived health status and quality of life. Hypertension was the most common condition in individuals with multimorbidity. Reduced quality of life was associated with increasing number of chronic diseases and multimorbidity clusters which included stroke and arthritis. Conclusions: The prevalence of multimorbidity varied across socioeconomic strata, with higher levels and health consequences observed in individuals in lower socio-economic income groups. Different multimorbidity clusters had differential effect on the quality of life. Health system designs incorporating integrated care strategies for complex conditions are required to effectively manage multimorbidity and different multimorbidity clusters.

7.
Prev Chronic Dis ; 17: E157, 2020 Dec 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33301391

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of chronic physical and mental health conditions is rising globally. Little evidence exists on the joint effect of physical and mental health conditions on health care use, work productivity, and health-related quality of life in Australia. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, waves 9 (2009), 13 (2013), and 17 (2017). Economic effects associated with multimorbidity were measured through health service use, work productivity loss, and health-related quality of life. We used generalized estimating equations to assess the effect of the association between physical multimorbidity and mental health conditions and economic outcomes. RESULTS: From 2009 through 2017 the prevalence of physical multimorbidity increased from 15.1% to 16.2%, and the prevalence of mental health conditions increased from 11.2% to 17.3%. The number of physical health conditions was associated with the number of health services used (general practitioner visits, incidence rate ratio = 1.41), work productivity loss (labor force participation, adjusted odds ratio = 0.71), and reduced health-related quality of life (SF-6D score: Coefficient = -0.03). These effects were exacerbated by the presence of mental health conditions and low socioeconomic status. CONCLUSION: Having multiple physical health conditions (physical multimorbidity) creates substantial health and financial burdens on individuals, the health system, and society, including increased use of health services, loss of work productivity, and decreased health-related quality of life. The adverse effects of multimorbidity on health, quality of life, and economic well-being are exacerbated by the co-occurrence of mental health conditions and low socioeconomic status.

8.
Health Syst Reform ; 6(1): e1833639, 2020 Dec 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33314988

RESUMO

Health system reforms across high- and middle-income countries often involve changes to public hospital governance. Corporatization is one such reform, in which public sector hospitals are granted greater functional independence while remaining publicly owned. In theory, this can improve public hospital efficiency, while retaining a public service ethos. However, the extent to which efficiency gains are realized and public purpose is maintained depends on policy choices about governance and payment systems. We present a case study of Malaysia's National Heart Institute (IJN), which was created in 1992 by corporatization of one department in a large public hospital. The aim of the paper is to examine whether IJN has achieved the goals for which it was created, and if so, whether it provides a potential model for further reforms in Malaysia and other similar health systems. Using a combination of document analysis and key informant interviews, we examine key governance, health financing and payment, and equity issues. For governance, we highlight the choice to have IJN owned by and answerable to a Ministry of Finance (MOF) holding company and MOF-appointed board, rather than the Ministry of Health (MOH). On financing and payment, we analyze the implications of IJN's combined role as fee-for-service provider to MOH as well as provider of care to private patients. For equity, we analyze the targeting of IJN care across publicly-referred and private patients. These issues demonstrate unresolved tensions between IJN's objectives and public service goals. As an institutional innovation that has endured for 28 years and grown dramatically in size and revenue, IJN's trajectory offers critical insights on the relevance of the hybrid public-private models for hospitals in Malaysia as well as in other middle-income countries. While IJN appears to have achieved its goal of establishing itself as a commercially viable, publicly owned center of clinical excellence in Malaysia, the value for money and equity of the services it provides to the Ministry of Health remain unclear. IJN is accountable to a small Ministry of Finance holding company, which means that detailed information required to evaluate these critical questions is not published. The case of IJN highlights that corporatization cannot achieve its stated goals of efficiency, innovation, and equity in isolation; rather it must be supported by broader reforms, including of health financing, payment, governance, and transparency, in order to ensure that autonomous hospitals improve quality and provide efficient care in an equitable way.

9.
PLoS Med ; 17(11): e1003268, 2020 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33170842

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases are leading causes of death, globally, and health systems that deliver quality clinical care are needed to manage an increasing number of people with risk factors for these diseases. Indicators of preparedness of countries to manage cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVDRFs) are regularly collected by ministries of health and global health agencies. We aimed to assess whether these indicators are associated with patient receipt of quality clinical care. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We did a secondary analysis of cross-sectional, nationally representative, individual-patient data from 187,552 people with hypertension (mean age 48.1 years, 53.5% female) living in 43 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and 40,795 people with diabetes (mean age 52.2 years, 57.7% female) living in 28 LMICs on progress through cascades of care (condition diagnosed, treated, or controlled) for diabetes or hypertension, to indicate outcomes of provision of quality clinical care. Data were extracted from national-level World Health Organization (WHO) Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS), or other similar household surveys, conducted between July 2005 and November 2016. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to estimate associations between each quality clinical care outcome and indicators of country development (gross domestic product [GDP] per capita or Human Development Index [HDI]); national capacity for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases ('NCD readiness indicators' from surveys done by WHO); health system finance (domestic government expenditure on health [as percentage of GDP], private, and out-of-pocket expenditure on health [both as percentage of current]); and health service readiness (number of physicians, nurses, or hospital beds per 1,000 people) and performance (neonatal mortality rate). All models were adjusted for individual-level predictors including age, sex, and education. In an exploratory analysis, we tested whether national-level data on facility preparedness for diabetes were positively associated with outcomes. Associations were inconsistent between indicators and quality clinical care outcomes. For hypertension, GDP and HDI were both positively associated with each outcome. Of the 33 relationships tested between NCD readiness indicators and outcomes, only two showed a significant positive association: presence of guidelines with being diagnosed (odds ratio [OR], 1.86 [95% CI 1.08-3.21], p = 0.03) and availability of funding with being controlled (OR, 2.26 [95% CI 1.09-4.69], p = 0.03). Hospital beds (OR, 1.14 [95% CI 1.02-1.27], p = 0.02), nurses/midwives (OR, 1.24 [95% CI 1.06-1.44], p = 0.006), and physicians (OR, 1.21 [95% CI 1.11-1.32], p < 0.001) per 1,000 people were positively associated with being diagnosed and, similarly, with being treated; and the number of physicians was additionally associated with being controlled (OR, 1.12 [95% CI 1.01-1.23], p = 0.03). For diabetes, no positive associations were seen between NCD readiness indicators and outcomes. There was no association between country development, health service finance, or health service performance and readiness indicators and any outcome, apart from GDP (OR, 1.70 [95% CI 1.12-2.59], p = 0.01), HDI (OR, 1.21 [95% CI 1.01-1.44], p = 0.04), and number of physicians per 1,000 people (OR, 1.28 [95% CI 1.09-1.51], p = 0.003), which were associated with being diagnosed. Six countries had data on cascades of care and nationwide-level data on facility preparedness. Of the 27 associations tested between facility preparedness indicators and outcomes, the only association that was significant was having metformin available, which was positively associated with treatment (OR, 1.35 [95% CI 1.01-1.81], p = 0.04). The main limitation was use of blood pressure measurement on a single occasion to diagnose hypertension and a single blood glucose measurement to diagnose diabetes. CONCLUSION: In this study, we observed that indicators of country preparedness to deal with CVDRFs are poor proxies for quality clinical care received by patients for hypertension and diabetes. The major implication is that assessments of countries' preparedness to manage CVDRFs should not rely on proxies; rather, it should involve direct assessment of quality clinical care.

10.
Prim Health Care Res Dev ; 21: e51, 2020 11 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33213564

RESUMO

AIM: The purpose of this paper is to describe the recruitment strategies, the response rates and the reasons for non-response of Malaysian public and private primary care doctors in an international survey on the quality, cost and equity in primary care. BACKGROUND: Low research participation by primary care doctors, especially those working in the private sector, is a challenge to quality benchmarking. METHODS: Primary care doctors were sampled through multi-stage sampling. The first stage-sampling unit was the primary care clinics, which were randomly sampled from five states in Malaysia to reflect their proportions in two strata - sector (public/private) and location (urban/rural). Strategies through endorsement, personalised invitation, face-to-face interview and non-monetary incentives were used to recruit public and private doctors. Data collection was carried out by fieldworkers through structured questionnaires. FINDINGS: A total of 221 public and 239 private doctors participated in the study. Among the public doctors, 99.5% response rates were obtained. Among the private doctors, a 32.8% response rate was obtained. Totally, 30% of private clinics were uncontactable by telephone, and when these were excluded, the overall response rate is 46.8%. The response rate of the private clinics across the states ranges from 31.5% to 34.0%. A total of 167 answered the non-respondent questionnaire. Among the non-respondents, 77.4 % were male and 22.6% female (P = 0.011). There were 33.6% of doctors older than 65 years (P = 0.003) and 15.9% were from the state of Sarawak (P = 0.016) when compared to non-respondents. Reason for non-participation included being too busy (51.8%), not interested (32.9%), not having enough patients (9.1%) and did not find it beneficial (7.9%). Our study demonstrated the feasibility of obtaining favourable response rate in a survey involving doctors from public and private primary care settings.

11.
JAMA ; 324(15): 1532-1542, 2020 10 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33079153

RESUMO

Importance: The World Health Organization is developing a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer, with goals for screening prevalence among women aged 30 through 49 years. However, evidence on prevalence levels of cervical cancer screening in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is sparse. Objective: To determine lifetime cervical cancer screening prevalence in LMICs and its variation across and within world regions and countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: Analysis of cross-sectional nationally representative household surveys carried out in 55 LMICs from 2005 through 2018. The median response rate across surveys was 93.8% (range, 64.0%-99.3%). The population-based sample consisted of 1 136 289 women aged 15 years or older, of whom 6885 (0.6%) had missing information for the survey question on cervical cancer screening. Exposures: World region, country; countries' economic, social, and health system characteristics; and individuals' sociodemographic characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-report of having ever had a screening test for cervical cancer. Results: Of the 1 129 404 women included in the analysis, 542 475 were aged 30 through 49 years. A country-level median of 43.6% (interquartile range [IQR], 13.9%-77.3%; range, 0.3%-97.4%) of women aged 30 through 49 years self-reported to have ever been screened, with countries in Latin America and the Caribbean having the highest prevalence (country-level median, 84.6%; IQR, 65.7%-91.1%; range, 11.7%-97.4%) and those in sub-Saharan Africa the lowest prevalence (country-level median, 16.9%; IQR, 3.7%-31.0%; range, 0.9%-50.8%). There was large variation in the self-reported lifetime prevalence of cervical cancer screening among countries within regions and among countries with similar levels of per capita gross domestic product and total health expenditure. Within countries, women who lived in rural areas, had low educational attainment, or had low household wealth were generally least likely to self-report ever having been screened. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of data collected in 55 low- and middle-income countries from 2005 through 2018, there was wide variation between countries in the self-reported lifetime prevalence of cervical cancer screening. However, the median prevalence was only 44%, supporting the need to increase the rate of screening.


Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Adulto , Estudos Transversais , Países em Desenvolvimento , Feminino , Saúde Global , Pesquisas sobre Serviços de Saúde , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Autorrelato
13.
Lancet Glob Health ; 8(10): e1295-e1304, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32971052

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Each year, billions of US$ are spent globally on infectious disease research and development. However, there is little systematic tracking of global research and development. We present research on investments into infectious diseases research from funders in the G20 countries across an 18-year time period spanning 2000-17, comparing amounts invested for different conditions and considering the global burden of disease to identify potential areas of relative underfunding. METHODS: The study examined research awards made between 2000 and 2017 for infectious disease research from G20-based public and philanthropic funders. We searched research databases using a range of keywords, and open access data were extracted from funder websites. Awards were categorised by type of science, specialty, and disease or pathogen. Data collected included study title, abstract, award amount, funder, and year. We used descriptive statistics and Spearman's correlation coefficient to investigate the association between research investment and disease burden, using Global Burden of Disease 2017 study data. FINDINGS: The final 2000-17 dataset included 94 074 awards for infectious disease research, with a sum investment of $104·9 billion (annual range 4·1 billion to 8·4 billion) and a median award size of $257 176 (IQR 62 562-770 661). Pre-clinical research received $61·1 billion (58·2%) across 70 337 (74·8%) awards and public health research received $29·5 billion (28·1%) from 19 197 (20·4%) awards. HIV/AIDS received $42·1 billion (40·1%), tuberculosis received $7·0 billion (6·7%), malaria received $5·6 billion (5·3%), and pneumonia received $3·5 billion (3·3%). Funding for Ebola virus ($1·2 billion), Zika virus ($0·3 billion), influenza ($4·4 billion), and coronavirus ($0·5 billion) was typically highest soon after a high-profile outbreak. There was a general increase in year-on-year investment in infectious disease research between 2000 and 2006, with a decline between 2007 and 2017. Funders based in the USA provided $81·6 billion (77·8%). Based on funding per 2017 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV/AIDS received the greatest relative investment ($772 per DALY), compared with tuberculosis ($156 per DALY), malaria ($125 per DALY), and pneumonia ($33 per DALY). Syphilis and scabies received the least relative investment (both $9 per DALY). We observed weak positive correlation (r=0·30) between investment and 2017 disease burden. INTERPRETATION: HIV research received the highest amount of investment relative to DALY burden. Scabies and syphilis received the lowest relative funding. Investments for high-threat pathogens (eg, Ebola virus and coronavirus) were often reactive and followed outbreaks. We found little evidence that funding is proactively guided by global burden or pandemic risk. Our findings show how research investments are allocated and how this relates to disease burden and diseases with pandemic potential. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Pesquisa Biomédica/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Saúde Global/economia , Apoio à Pesquisa como Assunto/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Cooperação Internacional
14.
J Hepatol ; 2020 Sep 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32971137

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: More than 292 million people are living with hepatitis B worldwide and are at risk of death from liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set global targets for the elimination of viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. However, current levels of global investment in viral hepatitis elimination programmes are insufficient to achieve these goals. METHODS: To catalyse political commitment and to encourage domestic- and international-financing, we used published modelling data and key stakeholder interviews to develop an investment framework to demonstrate the return on investment for viral hepatitis elimination. RESULTS: The framework utilizes a public health approach to identify evidence-based national activities that reduce viral hepatitis-related morbidity and mortality, as well as international activities and critical enablers that allow countries to achieve maximum impact on health outcomes from investment to achieve WHO 2030 elimination targets. CONCLUSION: Focusing on hepatitis B, this health policy paper employs the investment framework to estimate the substantial economic benefits of investing in the elimination of hepatitis B and demonstrates how such investments could be cost-saving by 2030.

15.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 103(5): 1765-1772, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32940204

RESUMO

Effective management of a pandemic due to a respiratory virus requires public health capacity for a coordinated response for mandatory restrictions, large-scale testing to identify infected individuals, capacity to isolate infected cases and track and test contacts, and health services for those infected who require hospitalization. Because of contextual and socioeconomic factors, it has been hard for Latin America to confront this epidemic. In this article, we discuss the context and the initial responses of eight selected Latin American countries, including similarities and differences in public health, economic, and fiscal measures, and provide reflections on what worked and what did not work and what to expect moving forward.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Saúde Pública/métodos , Betacoronavirus , Busca de Comunicante , Humanos , América Latina/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Fatores Socioeconômicos
17.
Lancet Oncol ; 21(8): 1077-1088, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32758462

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Accurate survival estimates are important for cancer control planning. Although observed survival estimates are unavailable for many countries, where they are available, wide variations are reported. Understanding the impact of specific treatment and imaging modalities can help decision makers to effectively allocate resources to improve cancer survival in their local context. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of stage-specific cancer survival in 200 countries and territories for 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate) comprising 60% of global diagnosed cancer cases. The model accounts for country-specific availability of treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted therapy) and imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, single-photon emission CT), as well as quality of care. We calibrated the model to reported survival estimates from CONCORD-3 (which reports global trends in cancer survival in 2000-14). We estimated 5-year net survival for diagnosed cancers in each country or territory and estimated potential survival gains from increasing the availability of individual treatment and imaging modalities, and more comprehensive packages of scale-up of these interventions. We report the mean and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all outcomes, calculated as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the simulation results. FINDINGS: The estimated global 5-year net survival for all 11 cancers combined is 42·6% (95% uncertainty interval 40·3-44·3), with survival in high-income countries being an average of 12 times (range 4-17) higher than that in low-income countries. Expanding availability of surgery or radiotherapy or improving quality of care would yield the largest survival gains in low-income (2·5-3·4 percentage point increase in survival) and lower-middle-income countries (2·4-6·1 percentage point increase), whereas upper-middle-income and high-income countries are more likely to benefit from improved availability of targeted therapy (0·7 percentage point increase for upper-middle income and 0·4 percentage point increase for high income). Investing in medical imaging will also be necessary to achieve substantial survival gains, with traditional modalities estimated to provide the largest gains in low-income settings, while MRI and PET would yield the largest gains in higher-income countries. Simultaneous expansion of treatment, imaging, and quality of care could improve 5-year net survival by more than ten times in low-income countries (3·8% [95% UI 0·5-9·2] to 45·2% [40·2-52·1]) and could more than double 5-year net survival in lower-middle-income countries (20·1% [7·2-31·7] to 47·1% [42·8-50·8]). INTERPRETATION: Scaling up both treatment and imaging availability could yield synergistic survival gains for patients with cancer. Expanding traditional modalities in lower-income settings might be a feasible pathway to improve survival before scaling up more modern technologies. FUNDING: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health.


Assuntos
Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias/diagnóstico por imagem , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Neoplasias/terapia , Análise de Sobrevida , Países Desenvolvidos/estatística & dados numéricos , Países em Desenvolvimento/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos
18.
Lancet Oncol ; 21(8): 1089-1098, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32758463

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer among women worldwide, causing more than 300 000 deaths globally each year. In addition to screening and prevention, effective cancer treatment is needed to reduce cervical cancer mortality. We discuss the role of imaging in cervical cancer management and estimate the potential survival effect of scaling up imaging in several different contexts. METHODS: Using a previously developed microsimulation model of global cancer survival, we estimated stage-specific cervical cancer 5-year net survival in 200 countries and territories. We evaluated the potential survival effect of scaling up treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted therapy), and imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single photon emission CT [SPECT]) to the mean level of high-income countries, both individually and in combination. FINDINGS: We estimate global cervical cancer 5-year net survival as 42·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·8-48·5). Among individual imaging modalities, expanding MRI would yield the largest 5-year survival gains globally (data are absolute percentage point increase in survival 0·6, 95% UI 0·1-2·1), scaling up ultrasound would yield the largest gains in low-income countries (0·5, 0·0-3·7), expanding CT and x-ray would have the greatest effect in Latin America (0·8, 0·0-3·4) and Oceania (0·4, 0·0-3·2), and expanding PET would yield the largest gains in high-income countries (0·2, 0·0-0·8). Scaling up SPECT did not show major changes in any region. Among individual treatment modalities, scaling up radiotherapy would yield the largest absolute percentage point gains in low-income countries (5·2, 0·3-13·5), and expanding surgery would have the largest effect in lower-middle-income countries (7·4, 0·3-21·1) and upper-middle-income countries (0·8, 0·0-2·9). Estimated survival gains in high-income countries were very modest. However, the gains from expanding any single treatment or imaging modality individually were small across all income levels and geographical settings. Scaling up all treatment modalities could improve global 5-year net survival to 52·4% (95% UI 44·6-62·0). In addition to expanding treatment, improving quality of care could raise survival to 57·5% (51·2-63·5), and the cumulative effect of scaling up all imaging modalities together with expanded treatment and quality of care could improve 5-year net survival for cervical cancer to 62·5% (57·7-67·8). INTERPRETATION: Comprehensive scale-up of treatment, imaging, and quality of care could substantially improve global cervical cancer 5-year net survival, with quality of care and imaging improvements each contributing about 25% of the total potential gains. These findings suggest that a narrow focus on the availability of treatment modalities could forgo substantial survival gains. Investments in imaging equipment, personnel, and quality of care efforts will also be needed to successfully scale up cervical cancer treatment worldwide. FUNDING: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health and National Cancer Institute.


Assuntos
Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise de Sobrevida , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico por imagem , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/mortalidade , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/terapia , Países Desenvolvidos/estatística & dados numéricos , Países em Desenvolvimento/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos
19.
J Med Internet Res ; 22(8): e17158, 2020 08 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32763886

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Conversational agents, also known as chatbots, are computer programs designed to simulate human text or verbal conversations. They are increasingly used in a range of fields, including health care. By enabling better accessibility, personalization, and efficiency, conversational agents have the potential to improve patient care. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to review the current applications, gaps, and challenges in the literature on conversational agents in health care and provide recommendations for their future research, design, and application. METHODS: We performed a scoping review. A broad literature search was performed in MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online; Ovid), EMBASE (Excerpta Medica database; Ovid), PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Central with the search terms "conversational agents," "conversational AI," "chatbots," and associated synonyms. We also searched the gray literature using sources such as the OCLC (Online Computer Library Center) WorldCat database and ResearchGate in April 2019. Reference lists of relevant articles were checked for further articles. Screening and data extraction were performed in parallel by 2 reviewers. The included evidence was analyzed narratively by employing the principles of thematic analysis. RESULTS: The literature search yielded 47 study reports (45 articles and 2 ongoing clinical trials) that matched the inclusion criteria. The identified conversational agents were largely delivered via smartphone apps (n=23) and used free text only as the main input (n=19) and output (n=30) modality. Case studies describing chatbot development (n=18) were the most prevalent, and only 11 randomized controlled trials were identified. The 3 most commonly reported conversational agent applications in the literature were treatment and monitoring, health care service support, and patient education. CONCLUSIONS: The literature on conversational agents in health care is largely descriptive and aimed at treatment and monitoring and health service support. It mostly reports on text-based, artificial intelligence-driven, and smartphone app-delivered conversational agents. There is an urgent need for a robust evaluation of diverse health care conversational agents' formats, focusing on their acceptability, safety, and effectiveness.

20.
Diabetes Care ; 43(10): 2403-2410, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32764150

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is rising rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), but the factors driving this rapid increase are not well understood. Adult height, in particular shorter height, has been suggested to contribute to the pathophysiology and epidemiology of diabetes and may inform how adverse environmental conditions in early life affect diabetes risk. We therefore systematically analyzed the association of adult height and diabetes across LMICs, where such conditions are prominent. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from nationally representative surveys in LMICs that included anthropometric measurements and diabetes biomarkers. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for the relationship between attained adult height and diabetes using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models. We estimated ORs for the pooled sample, major world regions, and individual countries, in addition to stratifying all analyses by sex. We examined heterogeneity by individual-level characteristics. RESULTS: Our sample included 554,122 individuals across 25 population-based surveys. Average height was 161.7 cm (95% CI 161.2-162.3), and the crude prevalence of diabetes was 7.5% (95% CI 6.9-8.2). We found no relationship between adult height and diabetes across LMICs globally or in most world regions. When stratifying our sample by country and sex, we found an inverse association between adult height and diabetes in 5% of analyses (2 out of 50). Results were robust to alternative model specifications. CONCLUSIONS: Adult height is not associated with diabetes across LMICs. Environmental factors in early life reflected in attained adult height likely differ from those predisposing individuals for diabetes.

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