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1.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 10(2): e018393, 2021 Jan 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33401953

RESUMO

Background Statins are hypothesized to reduce the risk of cardiotoxicity associated with anthracyclines and trastuzumab. Our aim was to study the association of statin exposure with hospitalization or emergency department visits (hospital presentations) for heart failure (HF) after anthracycline- and/or trastuzumab-containing chemotherapy for early breast cancer. Methods and Results Using linked administrative databases, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of women aged ≥66 years without prior HF who received anthracyclines or trastuzumab for newly diagnosed early breast cancer in Ontario between 2007 to 2017. Statin-exposed and unexposed women were matched 1:1 using propensity scores. Trastuzumab-treated women were also matched on anthracycline exposure. We matched 666 statin-discordant pairs of anthracycline-treated women and 390 pairs of trastuzumab-treated women (median age, 69 and 71 years, respectively). The 5-year cumulative incidence of HF hospital presentations after anthracyclines was 1.2% (95% CI, 0.5%-2.6%) in statin-exposed women and 2.9% (95% CI, 1.7%-4.6%) in unexposed women (P value, 0.01). The cause-specific hazard ratio associated with statins in the anthracycline cohort was 0.45 (95% CI, 0.24-0.85; P value, 0.01). After trastuzumab, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HF hospital presentations was 2.7% (95% CI, 1.2%-5.2%) in statin-exposed women and 3.7% (95% CI, 2.0%-6.2%) in unexposed women (P value 0.09). The cause-specific hazard ratio associated with statins in the trastuzumab cohort was 0.46 (95% CI, 0.20-1.07; P value, 0.07). Conclusions Statin-exposed women had a lower risk of HF hospital presentations after early breast cancer chemotherapy involving anthracyclines, with non-significant trends towards lower risk following trastuzumab. These findings support the development of randomized controlled trials of statins for prevention of cardiotoxicity.

2.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 69(1): 58-67, 2021 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33025584

RESUMO

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Cognitive changes are commonly observed in older adults following surgical procedures. There are concerns that exposure to general anesthesia (GA) may contribute to an increased risk of Alzheimer's disease. Our study examined the associations between exposure to GA compared with regional anesthesia (RA) administered for elective surgical procedures and the development of dementia. DESIGN: Population-based propensity matched retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Linked administrative databases were accessed from ICES (formerly called the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Services) in Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: We included all community-dwelling individuals aged 66 and older who underwent one of five elective surgical procedures in Ontario, Canada, between April 1, 2007, and March 31, 2011. Individuals with evidence of dementia preceding cohort entry were excluded. Individuals who received GA were matched within surgical procedures to those who received RA on age, sex, cohort entry year, and a propensity score to control for potential confounders. MEASUREMENTS: The baseline characteristics of the study sample were compared before and after matching. Individuals were followed for up to 5 years following cohort entry for the occurrence of dementia using a validated algorithm. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to determine the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association between anesthetic type and dementia. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: A total of 7,499 matched pairs were included in the final analysis. Overall, no difference was observed in the risk of being diagnosed with dementia for individuals who received GA when compared with RA (HR = 1.0; 95% CI = .8-1.2). There was also no association between anesthesia and dementia in most subgroup and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Elective surgery using GA was not associated with an overall elevated risk of dementia when compared with RA. Future studies are required to determine whether surgery is a risk factor for dementia irrespective of anesthetic technique.

3.
Thorax ; 76(1): 29-36, 2021 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32999059

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Respiratory-related morbidity and mortality were evaluated in relation to incident prescription oral synthetic cannabinoid (nabilone, dronabinol) use among older adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: This was a retrospective, population-based, data-linkage cohort study, analysing health administrative data from Ontario, Canada, from 2006 to 2016. We identified individuals aged 66 years and older with COPD, using a highly specific, validated algorithm, excluding individuals with malignancy and those receiving palliative care (n=185 876 after exclusions). An equivalent number (2106 in each group) of new cannabinoid users (defined as individuals dispensed either nabilone or dronabinol, with no dispensing for either drug in the year previous) and controls (defined as new users of a non-cannabinoid drug) were matched on 36 relevant covariates, using propensity scoring methods. Cox proportional hazard regression was used. RESULTS: Rate of hospitalisation for COPD or pneumonia was not significantly different between new cannabinoid users and controls (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.61-1.24). However, significantly higher rates of all-cause mortality occurred among new cannabinoid users compared with controls (HR 1.64; 95% CI 1.14-2.39). Individuals receiving higher-dose cannabinoids relative to controls were observed to experience both increased rates of hospitalisation for COPD and pneumonia (HR 2.78; 95% CI 1.17-7.09) and all-cause mortality (HR 3.31; 95% CI 1.30-9.51). CONCLUSIONS: New cannabinoid use was associated with elevated rates of adverse outcomes among older adults with COPD. Although further research is needed to confirm these observations, our findings should be considered in decisions to use cannabinoids among older adults with COPD.

4.
Stat Med ; 40(1): 101-118, 2021 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33027845

RESUMO

Many observational studies estimate causal effects using methods based on matching on the propensity score. Full matching on the propensity score is an effective and flexible method for utilizing all available data and for creating well-balanced treatment and control groups. An important component of the full matching algorithm is the decision about whether to impose a restriction on the maximum ratio of controls matched to each treated subject. Despite the possible effect of this restriction on subsequent inferences, this issue has not been examined. We used a series of Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the effect of imposing a restriction on the maximum ratio of controls matched to each treated subject when estimating risk differences. We considered full matching both with and without a caliper restriction. When using full matching with a caliper restriction, the imposition of a subsequent constraint on the maximum ratio of the number of controls matched to each treated subject had no effect on the quality of inferences. However, when using full matching without a caliper restriction, the imposition of a constraint on the maximum ratio of the number of controls matched to each treated subject tended to result in an increase in bias in the estimated risk difference. However, this increase in bias tended to be accompanied by a corresponding decrease in the sampling variability of the estimated risk difference. We illustrate the consequences of these restrictions using observational data to estimate the effect of medication prescribing on survival following hospitalization for a heart attack.

5.
Liver Int ; 41(1): 33-47, 2021 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32956567

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a common and treatable cause of cirrhosis and its complications, yet many chronically infected individuals remain undiagnosed until a late stage. We sought to identify the frequency of and risk factors for HCV diagnosis peri-complication, that is within six months of an advanced liver disease complication. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of Ontario residents diagnosed with chronic HCV infection between 2003 and 2014. HCV diagnosis peri-complication was defined as the occurrence of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma or liver transplant within ±6 months of HCV diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for peri-complication diagnosis among all those diagnosed with HCV infection. RESULTS: Our cohort included 39,515 patients with chronic HCV infection, of whom 4.2% (n = 1645) were diagnosed peri-complication; these represented 31.6% of the 5,202 patients who developed complications in the follow-up period. Peri-complication diagnosis became more common over the study period and was associated with increasing age among baby boomers, alcohol use, diabetes mellitus, chronic HBV co-infection and moderate to high levels of morbidity. Female sex, immigrant status, having more previous outpatient physician visits, a previous emergency department visit, a history of drug use or mental health visits were associated with reduced risk of peri-complication diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Over a quarter of HCV-infected patients with complications were diagnosed peri-complication. This problem increased over time, suggesting a need to further expand HCV screening.

6.
Can J Cardiol ; 2020 Dec 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33276049

RESUMO

Missing data is a common occurrence in clinical research. Missing data occurs when the value of the variables of interest are not measured or recorded for all subjects in the sample. Common approaches to addressing the presence of missing data include complete-case analyses, in which subjects with missing data are excluded, or mean-value imputation, where missing values are replaced with the mean value of that variable in those subjects for whom it is not missing. However, in many settings, these approaches can lead to biased estimates of statistics (e.g., of regression coefficients) and/or to confidence intervals that are artificially narrow. Multiple imputation (MI) is a popular approach for addressing the presence of missing data. With MI, multiple plausible values of a given variable are imputed or filled-in for each subject who has missing data for that variable. This results in the creation of multiple completed datasets. Identical statistical analyses are conducted in each of these complete datasets and the results are pooled across complete datasets. We provide an introduction to MI and discuss issues in its implementation, including developing the imputation model, how many imputed datasets to create, and addressing derived variables. We illustrate the application of MI through an analysis of data on patients hospitalized with heart failure. We focus on developing a model to estimate the probability of one-year mortality in the presence of missing data. Statistical software code for conducting multiple imputation in R, SAS, and Stata are provided.

7.
Aging Ment Health ; : 1-8, 2020 Dec 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33317328

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Health policy in many countries is underpinned by a commitment to support dependent older people to remain in their own home for as long as possible and practicable. This study explores factors affecting both admission to long-stay residential care (LSRC) and mortality among people with and without dementia who are currently living at home with intensive formal care support. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study based on administrative data collected on 429 dependent older people in Ireland, 269 of whom were people with dementia. A cause-specific hazard model was used to investigate the hazard of admission to LSRC, while accounting for mortality as a competing risk and vice versa. RESULTS: Admission to LSRC was higher for people with dementia relative to people without and for those receiving lower amounts of informal care. The hazard of mortality was significantly higher for older people aged 85+, whereas it was lower for individuals with a medium level of dependency relative to those with high levels of dependency. The hazard of mortality was also influenced by the amount of informal care provision. CONCLUSION: People with dementia are more likely to be admitted to LSRC than people without. Care for people with dementia needs to be more specialised and personal, and intensity of provision should not be equated to the number of care hours on offer. Informal care provision may help to prevent admission to LSRC. Advanced age, physical dependency and informal care provision affect mortality, raising interesting issues in relation to resource allocation.

8.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33351143

RESUMO

AIMS: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) as an alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) has transformed severe aortic stenosis (AS) management. Our aim was understand AS cost drivers from referral to 1-year post procedure. METHODS: We identified patients referred for either TAVR/SAVR between April 1st, 2015 to March 31st, 2018, with follow-up until March 31st, 2019 in Ontario, Canada. We stratified costs into: 1) a referral phase 2) a procedural phase from the procedure date to 60 days post-procedure 3) post-procedure phase from 61 days to 1 year. Multivariable regression modeling using generalized linear models with a log link gamma distribution was used to identify cost drivers in each phase. RESULTS: The study cohort included 12,086 AS patients; 4,832 were referred for TAVR and 7,254 were referred for SAVR. The median cost for TAVR was higher than SAVR in the referral ($3,593 vs $2,944) and post-procedural ($5,938 vs $3,257) phases. In contrast, for the procedural phase, SAVR had a median cost of $29,756 vs. $27,907 for TAVR. Predictors of high cost in the referral phase were longer wait-time, and an urgent in-hospital procedure. In the procedural phase, procedural complications were the major drivers of higher cost. In the post-procedural phase, patient comorbidities were the major drivers, specifically dialysis, liver disease, cancer, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: We identified distinct patterns of cost accumulation and modifiable drivers for SAVR compared to TAVR; these drivers may guide clinical and health policy decisions to make AS care more efficient.

9.
Am Heart J ; 233: 20-38, 2020 Nov 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33166518

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Although greater than 20% of patients hospitalized with heart failure (HF) are admitted to a critical care unit, associated outcomes, and costs have not been delineated. We determined 30-day mortality, 30-day readmissions, and hospital costs associated with direct or delayed critical care unit admission. METHODS: In a population-based analysis, we compared HF patients who were admitted to critical care directly from the emergency department (direct), after initial ward admission (delayed), or never admitted to critical care during their hospital stay (ward-only). RESULTS: Among 178,997 HF patients (median age 80 [IQR 71-86] years, 49.6% men) 36,175 (20.2%) were admitted to critical care during their hospitalization (April 2003 to March 2018). Critical care patients were admitted directly from the emergency department (direct, 81.9%) or after initial ward admission (delayed, 18.1%). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause 30-day mortality were: 1.69 for direct (95% confidence interval [CI]; 1.55, 1.84) and 4.92 for delayed (95% CI; 4.26, 5.68) critical care-admitted compared to ward-only patients. Multivariable-adjusted repeated events analysis demonstrated increased risk for all-cause 30-day readmission with both direct (HR 1.04, 95% CI; 1.01, 1.08, P = .013) and delayed critical care unit admissions (HR 1.20, 95% CI; 1.13, 1.28, P < .001). Median 30-day costs were $12,163 for direct admissions, $20,173 for delayed admissions, and $9,575 for ward-only patients (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: While critical care unit admission indicates increased risk of mortality and readmission at 30 days, those who experienced delayed critical care unit admission exhibited the highest risk of death and highest costs of care.

10.
BMJ Open ; 10(11): e044126, 2020 11 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33243819

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To examine the temporal trends in mortality and heart failure (HF) hospitalisation in ambulatory patients following a new diagnosis of HF. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Outpatient PARTICIPANTS: Ontario residents who were diagnosed with HF in an outpatient setting between 1994 and 2013. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 1 year of diagnosis and the secondary outcome was HF hospitalisation within 1 year. Risks of mortality and hospitalisation were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the relative hazard of death was assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: A total of 352 329 patients were studied (50% female). During the study period, there was a greater decline in age standardised 1-year mortality rates (AMR) in men (33%) than in women (19%). Specifically, female AMR at 1 year was 10.4% (95% CI 9.1% to 12.0%) in 1994 and 8.5% (95% CI 7.5% to 9.5%) in 2013, and male AMR at 1 year was 12.3% (95% CI 11.1% to 13.7%) in 1994 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.5% to 9.1%) in 2013. Conversely, age standardised HF hospitalisation rates declined in men (11.4% (95% CI 10.1% to 12.9%) in 1994 and 9.1% (95% CI 8.2% to 10.1%) in 2013) but remained unchanged in women (9.7% (95% CI 8.3% to 11.3%) in 1994 and 9.8% (95% CI 8.6% to 11.0%) in 2013). CONCLUSION: Among patients with HF over a 20-year period, there was a greater improvement in the prognosis of men compared with women. Further research should focus on the determinants of this disparity and ways to reduce this gap in outcomes.

11.
Circ Cardiovasc Interv ; 13(11): e009297, 2020 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33167700

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has emerged as a reasonable alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) for patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS). There is limited data on temporal trends in wait-times and access to care for patients with AS, irrespective of treatment modality. We sought to investigate the trends in wait-times for the treatment (either SAVR or TAVR) of AS in Ontario, Canada, and to understand the drivers of wait-list mortality and hospitalization due to heart failure. METHODS: In this population-level retrospective cohort study, we identified patients from April 1, 2012, to March 31, 2018, who were referred for treatment of symptomatic severe AS awaiting either SAVR or TAVR. The primary outcome was the median total wait-time from referral date to either SAVR or TAVR procedure. Primary clinical outcomes were all-cause mortality and heart failure-related hospitalizations while on the wait-list. RESULTS: The referral cohort consisted of a total of 22 876 referrals for aortic valve replacement, with (N=8098) TAVR and (N=14 778) SAVR referrals. The mean and median wait times for the overall AVR cohort were 87 and 59 days, respectively. The TAVR subcohort had longer wait-times (median 84 days) compared with the SAVR subcohort (median 50 days). Year over year, there was a statistically significant an increase in wait-times (P<0.001) for the overall AS cohort as well as each of the TAVR (P<0.0001) and SAVR (P<0.0001) subgroups. Wait-time mortality was 2.5% (TAVR 5.2% and SAVR 1.05%), while the cumulative probability of heart failure hospitalization was 3.6% (TAVR 7.7% and SAVR 1.3%). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with severe symptomatic AS awaiting aortic valve replacement, there has been a trend of increasing wait times for both SAVR and TAVR. This was associated with increasing mortality and hospitalizations related to heart failure while on the wait-list.

12.
JACC Heart Fail ; 8(12): 1024-1034, 2020 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33189631

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to describe the pattern of health care contacts in patients ultimately presenting with incident hospitalization for acute heart failure (HF) compared with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation or stable HF. BACKGROUND: Little is known about how effectively HF is detected before the first acute hospitalization. METHODS: We compared 79,389 patients divided into 3 matched population cohorts in Ontario, Canada (2006-2013) with incident acute HF hospitalization, incident COPD hospitalization, or stable HF. The outcome of interest was the aggregate number of health care contacts occurring in each of the thirteen 28-day periods in the year preceding the index hospitalization. Health care contacts were defined as the total number of outpatient physician visits, hospitalizations for unrelated conditions, or emergency department visits. RESULTS: Acutely hospitalized patients with HF had a significant increase in health care contacts as time approached the index hospitalization. Patients with acute HF had a 28% increase in health care contacts in the last time period before the index hospitalization (adjusted rate ratio [RR]: 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25 to 1.31; p < 0.001) compared with matched COPD controls. Compared with stable HF, acutely hospitalized patients had a 75% increase in health care contacts during the same time period (RR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.71 to 1.79; p < 0.001). HF patients 20 to 40 years of age had an accelerated increase in the rate of health care contacts compared with those ≥65 years of age before index HF hospitalization (RR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.28; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients consulted physicians multiple times before their incident acute HF hospitalization. These health care contacts could represent missed opportunities to prevent hospitalizations for HF.

13.
JAMA ; 2020 Nov 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33185655

RESUMO

Importance: Fractional flow reserve (FFR) is an invasive measurement used to assess the potential of a coronary stenosis to induce myocardial ischemia and guide decisions for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). It is not known whether established FFR thresholds for PCI are adhered to in routine interventional practice and whether adherence to these thresholds is associated with better clinical outcomes. Objective: To assess the adherence to evidence-based FFR thresholds for PCI and its association with clinical outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective, multicenter, population-based cohort study of adults with coronary artery disease undergoing single-vessel FFR assessment (excluding ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction) from April 1, 2013, to March 31, 2018, in Ontario, Canada, and followed up until March 31, 2019, was conducted. Two separate cohorts were created based on FFR thresholds (≤0.80 as ischemic and >0.80 as nonischemic). Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to account for treatment selection bias. Exposures: PCI vs no PCI. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was major adverse cardiac events (MACE) defined by death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, or urgent coronary revascularization. Results: There were 9106 patients (mean [SD] age, 65 [10.6] years; 35.3% female) who underwent single-vessel FFR measurement. Among 2693 patients with an ischemic FFR, 75.3% received PCI and 24.7% were treated only with medical therapy. In the ischemic FFR cohort, PCI was associated with a significantly lower rate and hazard of MACE at 5 years compared with no PCI (31.5% vs 39.1%; hazard ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]). Among 6413 patients with a nonischemic FFR, 12.6% received PCI and 87.4% were treated with medical therapy only. PCI was associated with a significantly higher rate and hazard of MACE at 5 years compared with no PCI (33.3% vs 24.4%; HR, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.14-1.65]) in this cohort. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with coronary artery disease who underwent single-vessel FFR measurement in routine clinical practice, performing PCI, compared with not performing PCI, was significantly associated with a lower rate of MACE for ischemic lesions and a higher rate of MACE for nonischemic lesions. These findings support the performance of PCI procedures according to evidence-based FFR thresholds.

14.
Am J Med ; 2020 Nov 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33181105

RESUMO

AIMS: The impact of guideline-directed medical therapy for coronary heart disease in those with hospitalized acute heart failure is unknown. METHODS: We studied guideline-directed medical therapies for coronary disease: ACE inhibitors or ARBs, beta-adrenoreceptor antagonists, antiplatelet agents and/or anticoagulants, and statins. Using inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, we examined associations of guideline-directed medical therapy intensity (categorized as low [0-1], high [2-3], or very high [4] number of drugs) with mortality in 1873 patients with angina, troponin elevation or prior myocardial infarction. RESULTS: At discharge, 0-1, 2-3, and 4 medications were prescribed in 467 (25%), 705 (38%), and 701 (37%), respectively. Relative to those prescribed 0-1 drugs (reference), all-cause mortality was lower with 2-3 (hazards ratio [HR] 0.48; 95%CI; 0.28-0.84, p=0.009) or all 4 drug classes (HR 0.56; 95%CI; 0.33-0.96, p=0.034) over 181-365 days, with similar reductions present from 0-180 days. In those with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, mortality trended lower with 2-3 drug classes (HR 0.43; 95%CI; 0.18-1.02, p=0.054) and was significantly reduced with 4 drugs (HR 0.32; 95%CI; 0.12-0.84, p=0.021) during 0-180 day follow-up. In heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, all-cause mortality was reduced during both 0-180 and 181-365 day periods when discharged on 2-3 (HR 0.30 for 181-365 days; 95%CI; 0.14-0.64, p=0.002) or all 4 drug classes (HR 0.43; 95%CI; 0.19-0.95, p=0.038). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing guideline-directed medical therapy intensity for coronary heart disease resulted in lower mortality in patients with acute ischemic heart failure with both preserved and reduced ejection fractions.

15.
CMAJ ; 192(46): E1440-E1452, 2020 Nov 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33199451

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Addressing nonmedical reasons for delays in hospital discharge is important for improving the flow of patients through acute care hospital beds. Because this problem is understudied among adult surgical patients, we examined the incidence of and identified factors associated with delayed hospital discharge after major elective and emergency surgical procedures in acute care institutions. METHODS: Using health administrative data, we retrospectively compared adults with and without delayed discharge after 18 major elective and emergency surgical procedures between 2006 and 2016 in Ontario hospitals. We identified delayed discharge using the alternate level of care code, applied to patients who are medically fit for discharge but remain in an acute care hospital bed. We used hierarchical logistic regression modelling to determine factors associated with delayed discharge. RESULTS: Our cohort included 595 782 patients who underwent elective procedures and 180 478 who underwent emergency procedures. Delayed discharge accounted for 635 607 hospital days, of which 81.7% were related to admissions for emergency surgery. Delayed discharge affected 3.1% of patients who underwent elective surgery and 19.6% of those who underwent emergency procedures. Days attributed to delayed discharge formed about one-third of patients' total hospital stay for both surgical groups. The rate of delayed discharge across surgical specialties showed high variability (from 0.9% for lung resection or nephrectomy to 9.3% for peripheral arterial disease procedures in the elective surgery group, and from 3.8% for cardiac procedures to 33.8% for peripheral arterial disease procedures in the emergency surgery group). Risk factors for delayed discharge were older age, female sex, chronic disease burden and increasing hospital size. INTERPRETATION: Delayed discharge for nonmedical reasons was more common after emergency surgery than after elective surgery, and rates varied across surgery type. Optimizing early discharge planning, evaluating the variation in delayed discharge at the hospital level and improving local access to community care services could be next steps to addressing this problem.

16.
ESC Heart Fail ; 2020 Nov 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33205591

RESUMO

AIMS: This study aimed to review the performance of machine learning (ML) methods compared with conventional statistical models (CSMs) for predicting readmission and mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) and to present an approach to formally evaluate the quality of studies using ML algorithms for prediction modelling. METHODS AND RESULTS: Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, we performed a systematic literature search using MEDLINE, EPUB, Cochrane CENTRAL, EMBASE, INSPEC, ACM Library, and Web of Science. Eligible studies included primary research articles published between January 2000 and July 2020 comparing ML and CSMs in mortality and readmission prognosis of initially hospitalized HF patients. Data were extracted and analysed by two independent reviewers. A modified CHARMS checklist was developed in consultation with ML and biostatistics experts for quality assessment and was utilized to evaluate studies for risk of bias. Of 4322 articles identified and screened by two independent reviewers, 172 were deemed eligible for a full-text review. The final set comprised 20 articles and 686 842 patients. ML methods included random forests (n = 11), decision trees (n = 5), regression trees (n = 3), support vector machines (n = 9), neural networks (n = 12), and Bayesian techniques (n = 3). CSMs included logistic regression (n = 16), Cox regression (n = 3), or Poisson regression (n = 3). In 15 studies, readmission was examined at multiple time points ranging from 30 to 180 day readmission, with the majority of studies (n = 12) presenting prediction models for 30 day readmission outcomes. Of a total of 21 time-point comparisons, ML-derived c-indices were higher than CSM-derived c-indices in 16 of the 21 comparisons. In seven studies, mortality was examined at 9 time points ranging from in-hospital mortality to 1 year survival; of these nine, seven reported higher c-indices using ML. Two of these seven studies reported survival analyses utilizing random survival forests in their ML prediction models. Both reported higher c-indices when using ML compared with CSMs. A limitation of studies using ML techniques was that the majority were not externally validated, and calibration was rarely assessed. In the only study that was externally validated in a separate dataset, ML was superior to CSMs (c-indices 0.913 vs. 0.835). CONCLUSIONS: ML algorithms had better discrimination than CSMs in most studies aiming to predict risk of readmission and mortality in HF patients. Based on our review, there is a need for external validation of ML-based studies of prediction modelling. We suggest that ML-based studies should also be evaluated using clinical quality standards for prognosis research. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42020134867.

17.
Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes ; 13(12): e006968, 2020 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33238729

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Provider profiling involves comparing the performance of hospitals on indicators of quality of care. Typically, provider profiling examines the performance of hospitals on each quality indicator in isolation. Consequently, one cannot formally examine whether hospitals that have poor performance on one indicator also have poor performance on a second indicator. METHODS: We used Bayesian multivariate response random effects logistic regression model to simultaneously examine variation and covariation in multiple binary indicators across hospitals. We considered 7 binary patient-level indicators of quality of care for patients presenting to hospital with a diagnosis of acute stroke. We examined between-hospital variation in these 7 indicators across 86 hospitals in Ontario, Canada. RESULTS: The number of patients eligible for each indicator ranged from 1321 to 14 079. There were 7 pairs of indicators for which there was a strong correlation between a hospital's performance on each of the 2 indicators. Twenty-nine of the 86 hospitals had a probability higher than 0.90 of having worse performance than average on at least 4 of the 7 indicators. Seven of the 86 of hospitals had a probability higher than 0.90 of having worse performance than average on at least 5 indicators. Fourteen of the 86 of hospitals had a probability higher than 0.50 of having worse performance than average on at least 6 indicators. No hospitals had a probability higher than 0.50 of having worse performance than average on all 7 indicators. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that there are a small number of hospitals that perform poorly on at least half of the quality indicators, and that certain indicators tend to cluster together. The described methods allow for targeting quality improvement initiatives at these hospitals.

18.
CMAJ Open ; 8(4): E659-E666, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33109531

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The care necessary to prevent amputation from diabetes and peripheral artery disease (PAD) remains disjointed in many jurisdictions. To help inform integrated regional care, this study explores the correlation between regional health care services and rates of lower extremity amputation. METHODS: This ecological study included 14 administrative health regions in Ontario, Canada. All diabetes- or PAD-related major (above ankle) amputations (Apr. 1, 2007, to Mar. 31, 2017) were identified among residents 40 years of age and older. For each region, age-and sex-adjusted amputation rates were calculated as well as per capita counts of key health providers (podiatrists and chiropodists, as well as surgeons) and health care utilization among study patients in the year before the first major amputation (physician visits, publicly funded podiatry visits, emergency department visits, hospital admissions, home care nursing, minor amputation, limb revascularization). RESULTS: A total of 11 658 patients with major amputation were identified (of whom 79.2% had diabetes and 96.5% had PAD). There was wide regional variation in amputation rates: 2.53 to 11.77 per 100 000 person-quarters. At a regional level, the proportion of study patients who received revascularization showed the strongest negative correlation with amputation rates. The regional proportion of study patients who saw a vascular surgeon showed the strongest negative correlation with amputation rates, relative to other health provider visits. Other measures of health care utilization among patients correlated poorly with regional amputation rates, as did the regional provider counts. The results were similar when we restricted the analysis to diabetes-related amputations. INTERPRETATION: Amputation rates related to diabetes and PAD vary widely across Ontario. Access to vascular assessment and revascularization must be integrated into regional amputation prevention efforts.

19.
Heart ; 2020 Oct 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33082174

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Multiple arterial grafting (MAG) in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is associated with higher survival and freedom from major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) in observational studies of mostly men. It is not known whether MAG is beneficial in women. Our objectives were to compare the long-term clinical outcomes of MAG versus single arterial grafting (SAG) in women undergoing CABG for multivessel disease. METHODS: Clinical and administrative databases for Ontario, Canada, were linked to obtain all women with angiographic evidence of left main, triple or double vessel disease undergoing isolated non-emergent primary CABG from 2008 to 2019. 1:1 propensity score matching was performed. Late mortality and MACCE (composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, repeat revascularisation and death) were compared between the matched groups with a stratified log-rank test and Cox proportional-hazards model. RESULTS: 2961 and 7954 women underwent CABG with MAG and SAG, respectively, for multivessel disease. Prior to propensity-score matching, compared with SAG, those who underwent MAG were younger (66.0 vs 68.9 years) and had less comorbidities. After propensity-score matching, in 2446 well-matched pairs, there was no significant difference in 30-day mortality (1.6% vs 1.8%, p=0.43) between MAG and SAG. Over a median and maximum follow-up of 5.0 and 11.0 years, respectively, MAG was associated with greater survival (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.98) and freedom from MACCE (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: MAG was associated with greater survival and freedom from MACCE and should be considered for women with good life expectancy requiring CABG.

20.
Am Heart J ; 232: 47-56, 2020 Oct 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33022231

RESUMO

Contemporary data on the effect of levothyroxine dose on the occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) are lacking, particularly in the older population. Our objective was to determine the effect of cumulative levothyroxine exposure on risk of AF and ischemic stroke in older adults. METHODS: We conducted a population-based observational study using health care databases from Ontario, Canada. We identified adults aged ≥66 years without a history of AF who filled at least 1 levothyroxine prescription between April 1, 2007, and March 31, 2016. Cases were defined as cohort members who had incident AF (emergency room visit or hospitalization) between the date of first levothyroxine prescription and December 31, 2017. Index date was date of AF. Cases were matched with up to 5 controls without AF on the same index date. Secondary outcome was ischemic stroke. Cumulative levothyroxine exposure was estimated based on total milligrams of levothyroxine dispensed in the year prior to index date. Using nested case-control approach, we compared outcomes between older adults who received high (≥0.125 mg/d), medium (0.075-0.125 mg/d), or low (0-0.075 mg/d) cumulative levothyroxine dose. We compared outcomes between current, recent past, and remote past levothyroxine use. RESULTS: Of 183,360 older adults treated with levothyroxine (mean age 82 years; 72% women), 30,560 (16.1%) had an episode of AF. Compared to low levothyroxine exposure, high and medium exposure was associated with significantly increased risk of AF after adjustment for covariates (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.29, 95% CI 1.23-1.35; aOR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04-1.11; respectively). No association was observed between levothyroxine exposure and ischemic stroke. Compared with current levothyroxine use, older adults with remote levothyroxine use had lower risks of AF (aOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.52-0.59) and ischemic stroke (aOR 0.61, 95% CI 0.56-0.67). CONCLUSIONS: Among older persons treated with levothyroxine, levothyroxine at doses >0.075 mg/d is associated with an increased risk of AF compared to lower exposure.

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