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Environ Monit Assess ; 193(10): 649, 2021 Sep 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34523031


The present study aims to assess the recent changes and trends in the extreme climate indices in the Kashmir basin using the observational records from 1980 to 2016. The extreme climate indices were computed using the ClimPACT2 software and a total of 39 indices were selected for the analysis having particular utility to various sectors like agriculture, water resources, energy consumption, and human health. Besides adopting the station scale analysis, regional averages were computed for each index. In terms of the mean climatology, an increase has been observed in the annual mean temperature with a magnitude of 0.024 °C/year. Further, differential warming patterns have been observed in the mean maximum and minimum temperatures with mean maximum temperature revealing higher increases than mean minimum temperature. On the other hand, the annual precipitation shows a decrease over most of the region, and the decreases are more pronouncing in the higher altitudes. The trend analysis of the extreme indices reveals that in consonance with the rising temperature there has been an increase in the warm temperatures and decrease in the cold temperatures across the Kashmir basin. Furthermore, our analysis suggests a decrease in the extreme precipitation events. The drought indices viz., Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) manifest decreasing trends with the tendency towards drier regimes implying the need for better water resource management in the region under changing climate.

Mudança Climática , Monitoramento Ambiental , Secas , Humanos , Meteorologia , Temperatura
Sci Total Environ ; 722: 137875, 2020 Jun 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32199381


In September 2014, the Kashmir valley (north-west India) experienced a massive flood causing significant economic losses and fatalities. This disaster underlined the high vulnerability of the local population and raised questions regarding the resilience of Kashmiris to future floods. Although the magnitude of the 2014 flood has been considered unprecedented within the context of existing measurements, we argue that the short flow series may lead to spurious misinterpretation of the probability of such extreme events. Here we use a millennium-long record of past floods in Kashmir based on historical and tree-ring records to assess the probability of 2014-like flood events in the region. Our flood chronology (635 CE-nowadays) provides key insights into the recurrence of flood disasters and propels understanding of flood variability in this region over the last millennium, showing enhanced activity during the Little Ice Age. We find that high-impact floods have frequently disrupted the Kashmir valley in the past. Thus, the inclusion of historical records reveals large flood hazard levels in the region. The newly gained information also underlines the critical need to take immediate action in the region, so as to reduce the exposure of local populations and to increase their resilience, despite existing constraints in watershed management related to the Indus Water Treaty.

Desastres , Inundações , Previsões , Probabilidade
Disasters ; 44(1): 232, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31231839


The above article from Disasters, published online on 24 June 2019 in Wiley Online Library ( has been withdrawn by agreement between the authors, the Journal Editors, Sara Pantuliano, John Twigg, Helen Young and Matthew Foley, and John Wiley & Sons Ltd., on behalf of Overseas Development Institute. Reference Ahmad, B., Alam, A., Bhat, M. S. and Bhat, K. A. (2019), Reconstructing disasters and adaptation scenario of nineteenth-century Kashmir. Disasters. Accepted Author Manuscript. doi:10.1111/disa.12364.

Environ Manage ; 54(6): 1267-87, 2014 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25267521


The Himalayan watersheds are susceptible to various forms of degradation due to their sensitive and fragile ecological disposition coupled with increasing anthropogenic disturbances. Owing to the paucity of appropriate technology and financial resources, the prioritization of watersheds has become an inevitable process for effective planning and management of natural resources. Lidder catchment constitutes a segment of the western Himalayas with an area of 1,159.38 km(2). The study is based on integrated analysis of remote sensing, geographic information system, field study, and socioeconomic data. Multicriteria evaluation of geophysical, land-use and land-cover (LULC) change, and socioeconomic indicators is carried out to prioritize watersheds for natural resource conservation and management. Knowledge-based weights and ranks are normalized, and weighted linear combination technique is adopted to determine final priority value. The watersheds are classified into four priority zones (very high priority, high priority, medium priority, and low priority) on the basis of quartiles of the priority value, thus indicating their ecological status in terms of degradation caused by anthropogenic disturbances. The correlation between priority ranks of individual indicators and integrated indicators is drawn. The results reveal that socioeconomic indicators are the most important drivers of LULC change and environmental degradation in the catchment. Moreover, the magnitude and intensity of anthropogenic impact is not uniform in different watersheds of Lidder catchment. Therefore, any conservation and management strategy must be formulated on the basis of watershed prioritization.

Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Abastecimento de Água , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Humanos , Índia , Densidade Demográfica , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Gerenciamento de Resíduos