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1.
Sleep ; 2020 Mar 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32133531

RESUMO

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Intrusive memories of psychological trauma are a core clinical feature of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and in the early period post-trauma may be a potential target for early intervention. Disrupted sleep in the weeks post-trauma is associated with later PTSD. The impact of sleep and intrusive memories immediately post-trauma, and their relation to later PTSD, is unknown. This study assessed the relationship between sleep duration on the first night following a real-life traumatic event and intrusive memories in the subsequent week, and how these might relate to PTSD symptoms at two months. METHODS: Patients (n=87) recruited in the emergency department completed a sleep and intrusive memory diary from the day of their trauma and for the subsequent week, with optional actigraphy. PTSD, anxiety and depression symptoms were assessed at one week and two months. RESULTS: A U-shaped relationship was observed between sleep duration on the first night and intrusive memories over the subsequent week: sleeping "too little" or "too much" was associated with more intrusive memories. Individuals who met CAPS PTSD criteria at two months had three times more intrusive memories in the first week immediately post-trauma than those who did not (M=28.20 vs. 9.96). Post-hoc analysis showed the absence of intrusive memories in the first week post-trauma was only observed in those who did not meet CAPS criteria for PTSD at two months. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring intrusive memories and sleep in the first week post-trauma, using a simple diary, may help identify individuals more vulnerable to later psychopathology.

2.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 1117, 2020 Jan 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31980648

RESUMO

Many biological, psychological and economic experiments have been designed where an organism or individual must choose between two options that have the same expected reward but differ in the variance of reward received. In this way, designed empirical approaches have been developed for evaluating risk preferences. Here, however, we show that if the experimental subject is inferring the reward distribution (to optimize some process), they will rarely agree in finite time that the expected rewards are equal. In turn, we argue that this makes discussions of risk preferences, and indeed the motivations of behaviour, not so simple or straightforward to interpret. We use this particular experiment to highlight the serious need to consider the frame of reference of the experimental subject in studies of behaviour.

3.
Biol Lett ; 16(1): 20190441, 2020 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31964260

RESUMO

Ecosystem dynamics are driven by both biotic and abiotic processes, and perturbations can push ecosystems into novel dynamical regimes. Plant-plant, plant-soil and mycorrhizal associations all affect plant ecosystem dynamics; however, the direction and magnitude of these effects vary by context and their contribution to ecosystem resilience over long time periods remains unknown. Here, using a mathematical framework, we investigate the effects of plant feedbacks and mycorrhiza on plant-nutrient interactions. We show evidence for strong nutrient controlled feedbacks, moderation by mycorrhiza and influence on ecological resilience. We use this model to investigate the resilience of a longitudinal palaeoecological birch-δ15N interaction to plant-soil feedbacks and mycorrhizal associations. The birch-δ15N system demonstrated high levels of resilience. Mycorrhiza were predicted to increase resilience by supporting plant-nitrogen uptake and immobilizing excess nitrogen; in contrast, long-term enrichment in available nitrogen by plant-soil feedbacks is expected to decrease ecological resilience.


Assuntos
Micorrizas , Ecossistema , Nitrogênio , Nutrientes , Plantas , Solo
4.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 19222, 2019 Dec 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31822773

RESUMO

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

5.
Front Microbiol ; 10: 1940, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31497006

RESUMO

Globally, the bacterial genus Campylobacter is one of the leading causes of human gastroenteritis, with its primary route of infection being through poultry meat. The application of biosecurity measures is currently limited by a lack of understanding of the transmission dynamics within a flock. Our work is the first to undertake a mathematical modeling approach to Campylobacter population dynamics within a flock of broilers (chickens bred specifically for meat). A system of stochastic differential equations is used to model the routes of infection between co-housed birds. The presented model displays the strong correlation between housing density and Campylobacter prevalence, and shows how stochastic variation is the driving factor determining which strains of Campylobacter will emerge first within a flock. The model also shows how the system will rapidly select for phenotypic advantages, to quickly eliminate demographically-weaker strains. A global sensitivity analysis is performed, highlighting that the growth and death rate of other native bacterial species likely contributes the greatest to preventing flock outbreaks, presenting a promising approach to hypothesizing new methods of combatting disease transmission.

6.
J R Soc Interface ; 16(156): 20190270, 2019 Jul 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31362626

RESUMO

Vector ecology is integral to understanding the transmission of vector-borne diseases, with processes such as reproduction and competition pivotal in determining vector presence and abundance. The arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus compete as larvae, but this mechanism is insufficient to explain patterns of coexistence and exclusion. Inviable interspecies matings-known as reproductive interference-is another candidate mechanism. Here, we analyse mathematical models of mosquito population dynamics and epidemiology which include two Aedes-specific features of reproductive interference. First, as these mosquitoes use hosts to find mates, reproductive interference will only occur if the same host is visited. Host choice will, in turn, be determined by behavioural responses to host availability. Second, females can become sterilized after mis-mating with heterospecifics. We find that a species with an affinity for a shared host will suffer more from reproductive interference than a less selective competitor. Costs from reproductive interference can be 'traded-off' against costs from larval competition, leading to competitive outcomes that are difficult to predict from empirical evidence. Sterilizations of a self-limiting species can counterintuitively lead to higher densities than a competitor suffering less sterilization. We identify that behavioural responses and reproductive interference mediate a concomitant relationship between vector ecological dynamics and epidemiology. Competitors with opposite behavioural responses can maintain disease where human hosts are rare, due to vector coexistence facilitated by a reduced cost from reproductive interference. Our work elucidates the relative roles of the competitive mechanisms governing Aedes populations and the associated epidemiological consequences.

7.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 11054, 2019 Jul 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31363134

RESUMO

We evaluate the total probability of human extinction from naturally occurring processes. Such processes include risks that are well characterized such as asteroid impacts and supervolcanic eruptions, as well as risks that remain unknown. Using only the information that Homo sapiens has existed at least 200,000 years, we conclude that the probability that humanity goes extinct from natural causes in any given year is almost guaranteed to be less than one in 14,000, and likely to be less than one in 87,000. Using the longer track record of survival for our entire genus Homo produces even tighter bounds, with an annual probability of natural extinction likely below one in 870,000. These bounds are unlikely to be affected by possible survivorship bias in the data, and are consistent with mammalian extinction rates, typical hominin species lifespans, the frequency of well-characterized risks, and the frequency of mass extinctions. No similar guarantee can be made for risks that our ancestors did not face, such as anthropogenic climate change or nuclear/biological warfare.

8.
Cancer Res ; 79(20): 5302-5315, 2019 Oct 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31387920

RESUMO

The immune system is a robust and often untapped accomplice of many standard cancer therapies. A majority of tumors exist in a state of immune tolerance where the patient's immune system has become insensitive to the cancer cells. Because of its lymphodepleting effects, chemotherapy has the potential to break this tolerance. To investigate this, we created a mathematical modeling framework of tumor-immune dynamics. Our results suggest that optimal chemotherapy scheduling must balance two opposing objectives: maximizing tumor reduction while preserving patient immune function. Successful treatment requires therapy to operate in a "Goldilocks Window" where patient immune health is not overly compromised. By keeping therapy "just right," we show that the synergistic effects of immune activation and chemotherapy can maximize tumor reduction and control. SIGNIFICANCE: To maximize the synergy between chemotherapy and antitumor immune response, lymphodepleting therapy must be balanced in a "Goldilocks Window" of optimal dosing.Graphical Abstract: http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/79/20/5302/F1.large.jpg.

9.
Proc Biol Sci ; 286(1909): 20191419, 2019 08 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31431165

RESUMO

Understanding evolutionary patterns of parental investment and care has been a long-standing focus in studies of evolutionary and behavioural ecology. Indeed, patterns of investment and care are highly diverse, and fully understanding such diversity has been challenging. Recently, several studies have highlighted the need to consider coevolutionary dynamics in studies of parental care, as parental care is likely to co-occur and co-originate with a range of other traits. Two traits that commonly co-occur with parental care are offspring abandonment (the termination of parental investment prior to full independence in offspring) and filial cannibalism (the consumption of one's offspring). Here, we use a mathematical framework to explore how co-occurrence and coevolution among care, abandonment and cannibalism can influence the life-history conditions under which care is expected to evolve. Our results suggest that in some cases, the evolution of parental care can be inhibited by offspring abandonment and filial cannibalism. In other cases, abandonment and filial cannibalism that benefits parents can promote the evolution of parental care. It is particularly interesting that behaviours that seem so contrary to care-that is, eating or abandoning one's young-can in some cases broaden the conditions under which care can evolve. In general, our findings highlight that considering co-occurrence and coevolutionary dynamics between two or more traits is essential to understanding the evolution of trait diversity.

10.
Ecol Evol ; 9(16): 9312-9323, 2019 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31463023

RESUMO

Allocation of resources to competing processes of growth, maintenance, or reproduction is arguably a key process driving the physiology of life history trade-offs and has been shown to affect immune defenses, the evolution of aging, and the evolutionary ecology of offspring quality. Here, we develop a framework to investigate the evolutionary consequences of physiological dynamics by developing theory linking reproductive cell dynamics and components of fitness associated with costly resource allocation decisions to broader life history consequences. We scale these reproductive cell allocation decisions to population-level survival and fecundity using a life history approach and explore the effects of investment in reproduction or tissue-specific repair (somatic or reproductive) on the force of selection, reproductive effort, and resource allocation decisions. At the cellular level, we show that investment in protecting reproductive cells increases fitness when reproductive cell maturation rate is high or reproductive cell death is high. At the population level, life history fitness measures show that cellular protection increases reproductive value by differential investment in somatic or reproductive cells and the optimal allocation of resources to reproduction is moulded by this level of investment. Our model provides a framework to understand the evolutionary consequences of physiological processes underlying trade-offs and highlights the insights to be gained from considering fitness at multiple levels, from cell dynamics through to population growth.

11.
J Anim Ecol ; 88(11): 1732-1742, 2019 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31287921

RESUMO

Considerable emphasis has been placed recently on the importance of incorporating non-trophic effects into our understanding of ecological networks. Interaction modifications are well-established as generating strong non-trophic impacts by modulating the strength of interspecific interactions. For simplicity and comparison with direct interactions within a network context, the consequences of interaction modifications have often been described as direct pairwise interactions. The consequences of this assumption have not been examined in non-equilibrium settings where unexpected consequences of interaction modifications are most likely. To test the distinct dynamic nature of these "higher-order" effects, we directly compare, using dynamic simulations, the robustness to extinctions under perturbation of systems where interaction modifications are either explicitly modelled or represented by corresponding equivalent pairwise non-trophic interactions. Full, multi-species representations of interaction modifications resulted in a greater robustness to extinctions compared to equivalent pairwise effects. Explanations for this increased stability despite apparent greater dynamic complexity can be found in additional routes for dynamic feedbacks. Furthermore, interaction modifications changed the relative vulnerability of species to extinction from those trophically connected close to the perturbed species towards those receiving a large number of modifications. Future empirical and theoretical research into non-trophic effects should distinguish interaction modifications from direct pairwise effects in order to maximize information about the system dynamics. Interaction modifications have the potential to shift expectations of species vulnerability based exclusively on trophic networks.


Assuntos
Ecologia , Cadeia Alimentar , Animais , Ecossistema , Estado Nutricional
12.
J Appl Ecol ; 56(3): 688-698, 2019 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30983625

RESUMO

The mass release of transgenic insects carrying female lethal self-limiting genes can reduce pest insect populations. Substantial releases are also a novel resistance management tool, since wild type alleles conferring susceptibility to pesticides can dilute resistance alleles in target populations. However, a potential barrier is the need for large-scale area-wide releases. Here, we address whether localized releases of transgenic insects could provide an alternative means of population suppression and resistance management, without serious loss of efficacy.We used experimental mesocosms constituting insect metapopulations to explore the evolution of resistance to the Bacillus thuringiensis toxin Cry1Ac in a high-dose/refugia landscape in the insect Plutella xylostella. We ran two selection experiments, the first compared the efficacy of "everywhere" releases and negative controls to a spatially density-dependent or "whack-a-mole" strategy that concentrated release of transgenic insects in subpopulations with elevated resistance. The second experiment tested the relative efficacy of whack-a-mole and everywhere releases under spatially homogenous and heterogeneous selection pressure.The whack-a-mole releases were less effective than everywhere releases in terms of slowing the evolution of resistance, which, in the first experiment, largely prevented the evolution of resistance. In contrast to predictions, heterogeneous whack-a-mole releases were no more effective under heterogeneous selection pressure. Heterogeneous selection pressure did, however, reduce total insect population sizes.Whack-a-mole releases provided early population suppression, indistinguishable from homogeneous everywhere releases. However, insect population densities tracked the evolution of resistance in this system, as phenotypic resistance provides access to additional diet containing the toxin Cry1Ac. Thus, as resistance levels diverged between treatments, carrying capacities and population sizes increased under the whack-a-mole approach. Synthesis and applications. Spatially density-dependent releases of transgenic insects, particularly those targeting source populations at a landscape level, could suppress pest populations in the absence of blanket area-wide releases. The benefits of self-limiting transgenic insects were reduced in spatially localized releases, suggesting that they are not ideal for "spot" treatment of resistance problems. Nevertheless, spatially homogeneous or heterogeneous releases could be used to support other resistance management interventions.

13.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 15(4): e1006913, 2019 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31026273

RESUMO

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is a recently identified process where older patients accumulate distinct subclones defined by recurring somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells. CHIP's implications for stem cell transplantation have been harder to identify due to the high degree of mutational heterogeneity that is present within the genetically distinct subclones. In order to gain a better understanding of CHIP and the impact of clonal dynamics on transplantation outcomes, we created a mathematical model of clonal competition dynamics. Our analyses highlight the importance of understanding competition intensity between healthy and mutant clones. Importantly, we highlight the risk that CHIP poses in leading to dominance of precancerous mutant clones and the risk of donor derived leukemia. Furthermore, we estimate the degree of competition intensity and bone marrow niche decline in mice during aging by using our modeling framework. Together, our work highlights the importance of better characterizing the ecological and clonal composition in hematopoietic donor populations at the time of stem cell transplantation.


Assuntos
Hematopoese/fisiologia , Células-Tronco Hematopoéticas , Modelos Biológicos , Transplante de Células-Tronco/estatística & dados numéricos , Animais , Biologia Computacional , Células-Tronco Hematopoéticas/citologia , Células-Tronco Hematopoéticas/fisiologia , Humanos , Camundongos
14.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 3262, 2019 Mar 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30824756

RESUMO

Can early warning systems be developed to predict influenza epidemics? Using Australian influenza surveillance and local internet search query data, this study investigated whether seasonal influenza epidemics in China, the US and the UK can be predicted using empirical time series analysis. Weekly national number of respiratory cases positive for influenza virus infection that were reported to the FluNet surveillance system in Australia, China, the US and the UK were obtained from World Health Organization FluNet surveillance between week 1, 2010, and week 9, 2018. We collected combined search query data for the US and the UK from Google Trends, and for China from Baidu Index. A multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was developed to track influenza epidemics using Australian influenza and local search data. Parameter estimates for this model were generally consistent with the observed values. The inclusion of search metrics improved the performance of the model with high correlation coefficients (China = 0.96, the US = 0.97, the UK = 0.96, p < 0.01) and low Maximum Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) values (China = 16.76, the US = 96.97, the UK = 125.42). This study demonstrates the feasibility of combining (Australia) influenza and local search query data to predict influenza epidemics a different (northern hemisphere) scales.

15.
J Math Biol ; 78(6): 1821-1839, 2019 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30734075

RESUMO

Vector-borne diseases are a major public health concern inflicting high levels of disease morbidity and mortality. Vector control is one of the principal methods available to manage infectious disease burden. One approach, releasing modified vectors (such as sterile or GM mosquitoes) Into the wild population has been suggested as an effective method of vector control. However, the effects of dispersal and the spatial distribution of disease vectors (such as mosquitoes) remain poorly studied. Here, we develop a novel mathematical framework using an integrodifference equation (discrete in time and continuous in space) approach to understand the impact of releasing sterile insects into the wild population in a spatially explicit environment. We prove that an optimal release strategy exists and show how it may be characterized by defining a sensitivity variable and an adjoint system. Using simulations, we show that the optimal strategy depends on the spatially varying carrying capacity of the environment.

16.
Ecol Evol ; 9(3): 914-924, 2019 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30805130

RESUMO

A sixth great mass extinction is ongoing due to the direct and indirect effects of human pressures. However, not all lineages are affected equally. From an anthropocentric perspective, it is often purported that humans hold a unique place on Earth. Here, we show that our current impacts on the natural world risk realizing that expectation. We simulated species loss on the mammalian phylogenetic tree, informed by species current extinction risks. We explored how Homo sapiens could become isolated in the tree if species currently threatened with extinction disappeared. We analyzed correlates of mammal extinctions risks that may drive this isolation pattern. We show that, within mammals, and more particularly within primates, extinction risks increase with the number of known threat types, and decrease with geographic range size. Extinctions increase with species body mass, trophic level, and the median longitudinal extent of each species range in mammals but not within primates. The risks of extinction are frequently high among H. sapiens close relatives. Pruning threatened primates, including apes (Hominidae, Hylobatidae), from the tree of life will lead to our species being among those with the fewest close relatives. If no action is taken, we will thus not only lose crucial biodiversity for the preservation of Earth ecosystems, but also a key living reference to what makes us human.

17.
J Evol Biol ; 32(4): 310-319, 2019 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30672052

RESUMO

The growth and virulence of the bacteria Bacillus thuringiensis depend on the production of Cry toxins, which are used to perforate the gut of its host. Successful invasion of the host relies on producing a threshold amount of toxin, after which there is no benefit from producing more toxin. Consequently, the production of Cry toxin appears to be a different type of social problem compared with the public goods scenarios that bacteria usually encounter. We show that selection for toxin production is a volunteer's dilemma. We make specific predictions that (a) selection for toxin production depends upon an interplay between the number of bacterial cells that each host ingests and the genetic relatedness between those cells; (b) cheats that do not produce toxin gain an advantage when at low frequencies, and at high bacterial density, allowing them to be maintained in a population alongside toxin-producing cells. More generally, our results emphasize the diversity of the social games that bacteria play.

18.
Ecol Appl ; 29(2): e01851, 2019 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30656770

RESUMO

Ecological decision problems, such as those encountered in agriculture, often require managing conflicts between short-term costs and long-term benefits. Dynamic programming is an ideal method for optimally solving such problems but agricultural problems are often subject to additional complexities that produce state spaces intractable to exact solutions. In contrast, look-ahead policies, a class of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm, may attempt to solve problems of arbitrary magnitude. However, these algorithms focus on a temporally truncated caricature of the full decision problem over a defined planning horizon and as such are not guaranteed to suggest optimal actions. Thus, look-ahead policies may offer promising means of addressing detail-rich ecological decision problems but may not be capable of fully utilizing the information available to them, especially in scenarios where the best short- and long-term solutions may differ. We constructed and applied look-ahead policies to the management of a hypothetical, stage-structured, continually reproducing, agricultural insect pest. The management objective was to minimize the combined costs of management actions and crop damage over a 16-week growing season. The manager could elect to utilize insecticidal sprays or one of six release ratios of male-selecting transgenic insects where the release ratio determines the number of transgenic insects to be released for each wild-type male insect in the population. Complicating matters was the expression of insecticide resistance at non-trivial frequencies in the pest population. We assessed the extent to which look-ahead policies were able to recognize the potential threat of insecticide resistance and successfully integrate insecticides and transgenic releases to capitalize upon their respective benefits. Look-ahead policies were competent at anticipating and responding to ecological and economic information. Policies with longer planning horizons made fewer, better-timed insecticidal sprays and made more frequent transgenic releases, which consequently facilitated lower resistance allele frequencies. However, look-ahead policies were ultimately inefficient resistance managers, and directly responded to resistance only when it was dominant and prevalent. Effective long-term agricultural management requires the capacity to anticipate and respond to the evolution of resistance. Look-ahead policies can accommodate all the information pertinent to making the best long-term decision but may lack the perspective to actually do so.


Assuntos
Controle de Insetos , Inseticidas , Agricultura , Animais , Insetos , Resistência a Inseticidas , Masculino , Controle Biológico de Vetores , Plantas Geneticamente Modificadas
19.
Mar Pollut Bull ; 135: 636-647, 2018 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30301083

RESUMO

The Chagos Archipelago is geographically remote and isolated from most direct anthropogenic pressures. Here, we quantify the abundance and diversity of decapod crustaceans inhabiting dead coral colonies, representing a standardised microhabitat, across the Archipelago. Using morphological and molecular techniques we recorded 1868 decapods from 164 nominal species within 54 dead coral colonies, but total species estimates (Chao1 estimator) calculate at least 217 species. Galatheids were the most dominant taxa, though alpheids and hippolytids were also very abundant. 32% of species were rare, and 46% of species were found at only one atoll. This prevalence of rarer species has been reported in other cryptofauna studies, suggesting these assemblages maybe comprised of low-abundance species. This study provides the first estimate of diversity for reef cryptofauna in Chagos, which will serve as a useful baseline for global comparisons of coral reef biodiversity.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Animais , Antozoários/classificação , Recifes de Corais , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental , Oceano Índico , Ilhas do Oceano Índico
20.
Proc Biol Sci ; 285(1884)2018 08 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30068675

RESUMO

An understanding of the balance of interspecific competition and the physical environment in structuring organismal communities is crucial because those communities structured primarily by their physical environment typically exhibit greater sensitivity to environmental change than those structured predominantly by competitive interactions. Here, using detailed phylogenetic and functional information, we investigate this question in macrofaunal assemblages from Northwest Atlantic Ocean continental slopes, a high seas region projected to experience substantial environmental change through the current century. We demonstrate assemblages to be both phylogenetically and functionally under-dispersed, and thus conclude that the physical environment, not competition, may dominate in structuring deep-ocean communities. Further, we find temperature and bottom trawling intensity to be among the environmental factors significantly related to assemblage diversity. These results hint that deep-ocean communities are highly sensitive to their physical environment and vulnerable to environmental perturbation, including by direct disturbance through fishing, and indirectly through the changes brought about by climate change.


Assuntos
Organismos Aquáticos , Ecossistema , Pesqueiros , Animais , Oceano Atlântico , Mudança Climática , Filogenia , Temperatura
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