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1.
Gut ; 70(5): 865-875, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33753421

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Antitumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) drugs impair protective immunity following pneumococcal, influenza and viral hepatitis vaccination and increase the risk of serious respiratory infections. We sought to determine whether infliximab-treated patients with IBD have attenuated serological responses to SARS-CoV-2 infections. DESIGN: Antibody responses in participants treated with infliximab were compared with a reference cohort treated with vedolizumab, a gut-selective anti-integrin α4ß7 monoclonal antibody that is not associated with impaired vaccine responses or increased susceptibility to systemic infections. 6935 patients were recruited from 92 UK hospitals between 22 September and 23 December 2020. RESULTS: Rates of symptomatic and proven SARS-CoV-2 infection were similar between groups. Seroprevalence was lower in infliximab-treated than vedolizumab-treated patients (3.4% (161/4685) vs 6.0% (134/2250), p<0.0001). Multivariable logistic regression analyses confirmed that infliximab (vs vedolizumab; OR 0.66 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.87), p=0.0027) and immunomodulator use (OR 0.70 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.92), p=0.012) were independently associated with lower seropositivity. In patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, seroconversion was observed in fewer infliximab-treated than vedolizumab-treated patients (48% (39/81) vs 83% (30/36), p=0.00044) and the magnitude of anti-SARS-CoV-2 reactivity was lower (median 0.8 cut-off index (0.2-5.6) vs 37.0 (15.2-76.1), p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Infliximab is associated with attenuated serological responses to SARS-CoV-2 that were further blunted by immunomodulators used as concomitant therapy. Impaired serological responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection might have important implications for global public health policy and individual anti-TNF-treated patients. Serological testing and virus surveillance should be considered to detect suboptimal vaccine responses, persistent infection and viral evolution to inform public health policy. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN45176516.

2.
Genet Epidemiol ; 45(3): 338-350, 2021 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33527565

RESUMO

A key assumption in Mendelian randomisation is that the relationship between the genetic instruments and the outcome is fully mediated by the exposure, known as the exclusion restriction assumption. However, in epidemiological studies, the exposure is often a coarsened approximation to some latent continuous trait. For example, latent liability to schizophrenia can be thought of as underlying the binary diagnosis measure. Genetically driven variation in the outcome can exist within categories of the exposure measurement, thus violating this assumption. We propose a framework to clarify this violation, deriving a simple expression for the resulting bias and showing that it may inflate or deflate effect estimates but will not reverse their sign. We then characterise a set of assumptions and a straight-forward method for estimating the effect of SD increases in the latent exposure. Our method relies on a sensitivity parameter which can be interpreted as the genetic variance of the latent exposure. We show that this method can be applied in both the one-sample and two-sample settings. We conclude by demonstrating our method in an applied example and reanalysing two papers which are likely to suffer from this type of bias, allowing meaningful interpretation of their effect sizes.

3.
Int J Cardiol ; 330: 214-220, 2021 May 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33592239

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Observational data have reported that being overweight or obese, compared to being normal weight, is associated with a lower risk for death - the "obesity paradox". We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate causal effects of body mass index (BMI) on mortality risks in people with coronary heart disease (CHD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) or malignancy in whom this paradox has been often reported. METHODS: We studied 457,746 White British UK Biobank participants including three subgroups with T2DM (n = 19,737), CHD (n = 21,925) or cancer (n = 42,612) at baseline and used multivariable-adjusted Cox models and MR approaches to describe relationships between BMI and mortality risk. RESULTS: Observational Cox models showed J-shaped relationships between BMI and mortality risk including within disease subgroups in which the BMI values associated with minimum mortality risk were within overweight/obese ranges (26.5-32.5 kg/m2). In all participants, MR analyses showed a positive linear causal effect of BMI on mortality risk (HR for mortality per unit higher BMI: 1.05; 95% CI: 1.03-1.08), also evident in people with CHD (HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.01-1.14). Point estimates for hazard ratios across all BMI values in participants with T2DM and cancer were consistent with overall positive linear effects but confidence intervals included the null. CONCLUSION: These data support the idea that population efforts to promote intentional weight loss towards the normal BMI range would reduce, not enhance, mortality risk in the general population including, importantly, individuals with CHD.

4.
Br J Cancer ; 2020 Nov 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33235313

RESUMO

MR-PHeWAS is a powerful new design for discovering causal mechanisms between a disease and its many candidate risk factors in a hypothesis-free manner. This technique has great potential in the field of cancer research, provided that both powerful and principled statistical approaches are used.

5.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 2020 Oct 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33017050

RESUMO

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Delirium is common in older adults, especially following hospitalization. Because low vitamin D levels may be associated with increased delirium risk, we aimed to determine the prognostic value of blood vitamin D levels, extending our previous genetic analyses of this relationship. DESIGN: Prospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Community-based cohort study of adults from 22 cities across the United Kingdom (the UK Biobank). PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 60 and older by the end of follow-up in the linked hospital inpatient admissions data, up to 14 years after baseline (n = 351,320). MEASUREMENTS: At baseline, serum vitamin D (25-OH-D) levels were measured. We used time-to-event models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between vitamin D deficiency and incident hospital-diagnosed delirium, adjusted for age, sex, assessment month, assessment center, and ethnicity. We performed Mendelian randomization genetic analysis in European participants to further investigate vitamin D and delirium risk. RESULTS: A total of 3,634 (1.03%) participants had at least one incident hospital-diagnosed delirium episode. Vitamin D deficiency (<25 nmol/L) predicted a large incidence in delirium (HR = 2.49; 95% CI = 2.24-2.76; P = 3*10-68 , compared with >50 nmol/L). Increased risk was not limited to the deficient group: insufficient levels (25-50 nmol/L) were also at increased risk (HR = 1.38; 95% CI = 1.28-1.49; P = 4*10-18 ). The association was independent of calcium levels, hospital-diagnosed fractures, dementia, and other relevant cofactors. In genetic analysis, participants carrying more vitamin D-increasing variants had a reduced likelihood of incident delirium diagnosis (HR = .80 per standard deviation increase in genetically instrumented vitamin D: .73-.87; P = 2*10-7 ). CONCLUSION: Progressively lower vitamin D levels predicted increased risks of incident hospital-diagnosed delirium, and genetic evidence supports a shared causal pathway. Because low vitamin D levels are simple to detect and inexpensive and safe to correct, an intervention trial to confirm these results is urgently needed.

7.
Res Synth Methods ; 11(3): 397-412, 2020 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32092231

RESUMO

Meta-analyses based on systematic literature reviews are commonly used to obtain a quantitative summary of the available evidence on a given topic. However, the reliability of any meta-analysis is constrained by that of its constituent studies. One major limitation is the possibility of small-study effects, when estimates from smaller and larger studies differ systematically. Small-study effects may result from reporting biases (ie, publication bias), from inadequacies of the included studies that are related to study size, or from reasons unrelated to bias. We propose two estimators based on the median and mode to increase the reliability of findings in a meta-analysis by mitigating the influence of small-study effects. By re-examining data from published meta-analyses and by conducting a simulation study, we show that these estimators offer robustness to a range of plausible bias mechanisms, without making explicit modelling assumptions. They are also robust to outlying studies without explicitly removing such studies from the analysis. When meta-analyses are suspected to be at risk of bias because of small-study effects, we recommend reporting the mean, median and modal pooled estimates.

8.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 3503, 2019 08 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31409809

RESUMO

Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) affects 10-20% of the population and is associated with substantial functional deficits. Here, we identify 42 loci for self-reported daytime sleepiness in GWAS of 452,071 individuals from the UK Biobank, with enrichment for genes expressed in brain tissues and in neuronal transmission pathways. We confirm the aggregate effect of a genetic risk score of 42 SNPs on daytime sleepiness in independent Scandinavian cohorts and on other sleep disorders (restless legs syndrome, insomnia) and sleep traits (duration, chronotype, accelerometer-derived sleep efficiency and daytime naps or inactivity). However, individual daytime sleepiness signals vary in their associations with objective short vs long sleep, and with markers of sleep continuity. The 42 sleepiness variants primarily cluster into two predominant composite biological subtypes - sleep propensity and sleep fragmentation. Shared genetic links are also seen with obesity, coronary heart disease, psychiatric diseases, cognitive traits and reproductive ageing.


Assuntos
Loci Gênicos , Sono/genética , Sonolência , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Conjuntos de Dados como Assunto , Feminino , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Polissonografia , Autorrelato/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Sexuais , Adulto Jovem
9.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 2949, 2019 07 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31270314

RESUMO

Recent analyses have shown educational attainment to be associated with a number of health outcomes. This association may, in part, be due to an effect of educational attainment on smoking behaviour. In this study, we apply a multivariable Mendelian randomisation design to determine whether the effect of educational attainment on smoking behaviour is due to educational attainment or general cognitive ability. We use individual data from the UK Biobank study (N = 120,050) and summary data from large GWA studies of educational attainment, cognitive ability and smoking behaviour. Our results show that more years of education are associated with a reduced likelihood of smoking that is not due to an effect of general cognitive ability on smoking behaviour. Given the considerable physical harms associated with smoking, the effect of educational attainment on smoking is likely to contribute to the health inequalities associated with differences in educational attainment.


Assuntos
Cognição/fisiologia , Escolaridade , Análise da Randomização Mendeliana , Fumar/genética , Viés , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Razão de Chances
10.
PLoS One ; 14(5): e0216222, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31075152

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Fibrinogen is an essential hemostatic factor and cardiovascular disease risk factor. Early attempts at evaluating the causal effect of fibrinogen on coronary heart disease (CHD) and myocardial infraction (MI) using Mendelian randomization (MR) used single variant approaches, and did not take advantage of recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) or multi-variant, pleiotropy robust MR methodologies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated evidence for a causal effect of fibrinogen on both CHD and MI using MR. We used both an allele score approach and pleiotropy robust MR models. The allele score was composed of 38 fibrinogen-associated variants from recent GWAS. Initial analyses using the allele score used a meta-analysis of 11 European-ancestry prospective cohorts, free of CHD and MI at baseline, to examine incidence CHD and MI. We also applied 2 sample MR methods with data from a prevalent CHD and MI GWAS. Results are given in terms of the hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratio (OR), depending on the study design, and associated 95% confidence interval (CI). In single variant analyses no causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD or MI was observed. In multi-variant analyses using incidence CHD cases and the allele score approach, the estimated causal effect (HR) of a 1 g/L higher fibrinogen concentration was 1.62 (CI = 1.12, 2.36) when using incident cases and the allele score approach. In 2 sample MR analyses that accounted for pleiotropy, the causal estimate (OR) was reduced to 1.18 (CI = 0.98, 1.42) and 1.09 (CI = 0.89, 1.33) in the 2 most precise (smallest CI) models, out of 4 models evaluated. In the 2 sample MR analyses for MI, there was only very weak evidence of a causal effect in only 1 out of 4 models. CONCLUSIONS: A small causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD is observed using multi-variant MR approaches which account for pleiotropy, but not single variant MR approaches. Taken together, results indicate that even with large sample sizes and multi-variant approaches MR analyses still cannot exclude the null when estimating the causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD, but that any potential causal effect is likely to be much smaller than observed in epidemiological studies.


Assuntos
Doença das Coronárias/epidemiologia , Fibrinogênio/farmacologia , Análise da Randomização Mendeliana , Alelos , Doença das Coronárias/etiologia , Pleiotropia Genética , Variação Genética , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Incidência , Modelos Genéticos , Análise Multivariada , Infarto do Miocárdio/epidemiologia , Infarto do Miocárdio/etiologia , Razão de Chances
11.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 1100, 2019 03 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30846698

RESUMO

Sleep is an essential state of decreased activity and alertness but molecular factors regulating sleep duration remain unknown. Through genome-wide association analysis in 446,118 adults of European ancestry from the UK Biobank, we identify 78 loci for self-reported habitual sleep duration (p < 5 × 10-8; 43 loci at p < 6 × 10-9). Replication is observed for PAX8, VRK2, and FBXL12/UBL5/PIN1 loci in the CHARGE study (n = 47,180; p < 6.3 × 10-4), and 55 signals show sign-concordant effects. The 78 loci further associate with accelerometer-derived sleep duration, daytime inactivity, sleep efficiency and number of sleep bouts in secondary analysis (n = 85,499). Loci are enriched for pathways including striatum and subpallium development, mechanosensory response, dopamine binding, synaptic neurotransmission and plasticity, among others. Genetic correlation indicates shared links with anthropometric, cognitive, metabolic, and psychiatric traits and two-sample Mendelian randomization highlights a bidirectional causal link with schizophrenia. This work provides insights into the genetic basis for inter-individual variation in sleep duration implicating multiple biological pathways.


Assuntos
Loci Gênicos , Sono/genética , Acelerometria , Adulto , Idoso , Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Europeu , Feminino , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Desequilíbrio de Ligação , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Esquizofrenia/genética , Esquizofrenia/fisiopatologia , Autorrelato , Sono/fisiologia , Reino Unido
12.
Res Synth Methods ; 10(4): 486-496, 2019 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30861319

RESUMO

Mendelian randomization (MR) uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to infer whether a risk factor causally affects a health outcome. Meta-analysis has been used historically in MR to combine results from separate epidemiological studies, with each study using a small but select group of genetic variants. In recent years, it has been used to combine genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data for large numbers of genetic variants. Heterogeneity among the causal estimates obtained from multiple genetic variants points to a possible violation of the necessary instrumental variable assumptions. In this article, we provide a basic introduction to MR and the instrumental variable theory that it relies upon. We then describe how random effects models, meta-regression, and robust regression are being used to test and adjust for heterogeneity in order to improve the rigor of the MR approach.


Assuntos
Análise da Randomização Mendeliana/métodos , Metanálise como Assunto , Projetos de Pesquisa/normas , Variação Genética , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Internet , Estudos Observacionais como Assunto , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Análise de Regressão , Fatores de Risco , Software
13.
Nat Genet ; 51(3): 387-393, 2019 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30804566

RESUMO

Insomnia is a common disorder linked with adverse long-term medical and psychiatric outcomes. The underlying pathophysiological processes and causal relationships of insomnia with disease are poorly understood. Here we identified 57 loci for self-reported insomnia symptoms in the UK Biobank (n = 453,379) and confirmed their effects on self-reported insomnia symptoms in the HUNT Study (n = 14,923 cases and 47,610 controls), physician-diagnosed insomnia in the Partners Biobank (n = 2,217 cases and 14,240 controls), and accelerometer-derived measures of sleep efficiency and sleep duration in the UK Biobank (n = 83,726). Our results suggest enrichment of genes involved in ubiquitin-mediated proteolysis and of genes expressed in multiple brain regions, skeletal muscle, and adrenal glands. Evidence of shared genetic factors was found between frequent insomnia symptoms and restless legs syndrome, aging, and cardiometabolic, behavioral, psychiatric, and reproductive traits. Evidence was found for a possible causal link between insomnia symptoms and coronary artery disease, depressive symptoms, and subjective well-being.


Assuntos
Predisposição Genética para Doença/genética , Distúrbios do Início e da Manutenção do Sono/genética , Sono/genética , Adulto , Idoso , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Feminino , Expressão Gênica/genética , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Proteólise , Autorrelato , Ubiquitina/genética
14.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 343, 2019 01 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30696823

RESUMO

Being a morning person is a behavioural indicator of a person's underlying circadian rhythm. Using genome-wide data from 697,828 UK Biobank and 23andMe participants we increase the number of genetic loci associated with being a morning person from 24 to 351. Using data from 85,760 individuals with activity-monitor derived measures of sleep timing we find that the chronotype loci associate with sleep timing: the mean sleep timing of the 5% of individuals carrying the most morningness alleles is 25 min earlier than the 5% carrying the fewest. The loci are enriched for genes involved in circadian regulation, cAMP, glutamate and insulin signalling pathways, and those expressed in the retina, hindbrain, hypothalamus, and pituitary. Using Mendelian Randomisation, we show that being a morning person is causally associated with better mental health but does not affect BMI or risk of Type 2 diabetes. This study offers insights into circadian biology and its links to disease in humans.


Assuntos
Ritmo Circadiano , Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Europeu/genética , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Adulto , Idoso , AMP Cíclico/metabolismo , Feminino , Loci Gênicos , Ácido Glutâmico/metabolismo , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Sono , Reino Unido
15.
Res Synth Methods ; 10(1): 83-98, 2019 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30067315

RESUMO

Studies combined in a meta-analysis often have differences in their design and conduct that can lead to heterogeneous results. A random-effects model accounts for these differences in the underlying study effects, which includes a heterogeneity variance parameter. The DerSimonian-Laird method is often used to estimate the heterogeneity variance, but simulation studies have found the method can be biased and other methods are available. This paper compares the properties of nine different heterogeneity variance estimators using simulated meta-analysis data. Simulated scenarios include studies of equal size and of moderate and large differences in size. Results confirm that the DerSimonian-Laird estimator is negatively biased in scenarios with small studies and in scenarios with a rare binary outcome. Results also show the Paule-Mandel method has considerable positive bias in meta-analyses with large differences in study size. We recommend the method of restricted maximum likelihood (REML) to estimate the heterogeneity variance over other methods. However, considering that meta-analyses of health studies typically contain few studies, the heterogeneity variance estimate should not be used as a reliable gauge for the extent of heterogeneity in a meta-analysis. The estimated summary effect of the meta-analysis and its confidence interval derived from the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman method are more robust to changes in the heterogeneity variance estimate and show minimal deviation from the nominal coverage of 95% under most of our simulated scenarios.


Assuntos
Metanálise como Assunto , Projetos de Pesquisa , Algoritmos , Análise de Variância , Simulação por Computador , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Humanos , Funções Verossimilhança , Modelos Estatísticos , Razão de Chances , Probabilidade , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Viés de Seleção , Software , Revisões Sistemáticas como Assunto
16.
Int J Epidemiol ; 48(3): 702-712, 2019 06 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30462199

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomization (MR) has developed into an established method for strengthening causal inference and estimating causal effects, largely due to the proliferation of genome-wide association studies. However, genetic instruments remain controversial, as horizontal pleiotropic effects can introduce bias into causal estimates. Recent work has highlighted the potential of gene-environment interactions in detecting and correcting for pleiotropic bias in MR analyses. METHODS: We introduce MR using Gene-by-Environment interactions (MRGxE) as a framework capable of identifying and correcting for pleiotropic bias. If an instrument-covariate interaction induces variation in the association between a genetic instrument and exposure, it is possible to identify and correct for pleiotropic effects. The interpretation of MRGxE is similar to conventional summary MR approaches, with a particular advantage of MRGxE being the ability to assess the validity of an individual instrument. RESULTS: We investigate the effect of adiposity, measured using body mass index (BMI), upon systolic blood pressure (SBP) using data from the UK Biobank and a single weighted allelic score informed by data from the GIANT consortium. We find MRGxE produces findings in agreement with two-sample summary MR approaches. Further, we perform simulations highlighting the utility of the approach even when the MRGxE assumptions are violated. CONCLUSIONS: By utilizing instrument-covariate interactions in MR analyses implemented within a linear-regression framework, it is possible to identify and correct for horizontal pleiotropic bias, provided the average magnitude of pleiotropy is constant across interaction-covariate subgroups.


Assuntos
Adiposidade/genética , Pressão Sanguínea/genética , Interação Gene-Ambiente , Análise da Randomização Mendeliana , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Viés , Bancos de Espécimes Biológicos , Índice de Massa Corporal , Simulação por Computador , Pleiotropia Genética , Humanos , Obesidade/genética
17.
Int J Epidemiol ; 48(3): 713-727, 2019 06 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30535378

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomization (MR) is a powerful tool in epidemiology that can be used to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of unobserved confounding, by utilizing genetic variants that are instrumental variables (IVs) for the exposure. This has been extended to multivariable MR (MVMR) to estimate the effect of two or more exposures on an outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: We use simulations and theory to clarify the interpretation of estimated effects in a MVMR analysis under a range of underlying scenarios, where a secondary exposure acts variously as a confounder, a mediator, a pleiotropic pathway and a collider. We then describe how instrument strength and validity can be assessed for an MVMR analysis in the single-sample setting, and develop tests to assess these assumptions in the popular two-sample summary data setting. We illustrate our methods using data from UK Biobank to estimate the effect of education and cognitive ability on body mass index. CONCLUSION: MVMR analysis consistently estimates the direct causal effect of an exposure, or exposures, of interest and provides a powerful tool for determining causal effects in a wide range of scenarios with either individual- or summary-level data.


Assuntos
Índice de Massa Corporal , Cognição , Escolaridade , Análise da Randomização Mendeliana/métodos , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Análise dos Mínimos Quadrados , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Econométricos , Análise Multivariada
18.
Int J Epidemiol ; 48(3): 728-742, 2019 06 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30561657

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization (MR) incorporating multiple genetic variants within a meta-analysis framework is a popular technique for assessing causality in epidemiology. If all genetic variants satisfy the instrumental variable (IV) and necessary modelling assumptions, then their individual ratio estimates of causal effect should be homogeneous. Observed heterogeneity signals that one or more of these assumptions could have been violated. METHODS: Causal estimation and heterogeneity assessment in MR require an approximation for the variance, or equivalently the inverse-variance weight, of each ratio estimate. We show that the most popular 'first-order' weights can lead to an inflation in the chances of detecting heterogeneity when in fact it is not present. Conversely, ostensibly more accurate 'second-order' weights can dramatically increase the chances of failing to detect heterogeneity when it is truly present. We derive modified weights to mitigate both of these adverse effects. RESULTS: Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the modified weights outperform first- and second-order weights in terms of heterogeneity quantification. Modified weights are also shown to remove the phenomenon of regression dilution bias in MR estimates obtained from weak instruments, unlike those obtained using first- and second-order weights. However, with small numbers of weak instruments, this comes at the cost of a reduction in estimate precision and power to detect a causal effect compared with first-order weighting. Moreover, first-order weights always furnish unbiased estimates and preserve the type I error rate under the causal null. We illustrate the utility of the new method using data from a recent two-sample summary-data MR analysis to assess the causal role of systolic blood pressure on coronary heart disease risk. CONCLUSIONS: We propose the use of modified weights within two-sample summary-data MR studies for accurately quantifying heterogeneity and detecting outliers in the presence of weak instruments. Modified weights also have an important role to play in terms of causal estimation (in tandem with first-order weights) but further research is required to understand their strengths and weaknesses in specific settings.


Assuntos
Pressão Sanguínea/genética , Doença das Coronárias/epidemiologia , Análise da Randomização Mendeliana/métodos , Humanos , Método de Monte Carlo , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único
20.
Am J Epidemiol ; 187(12): 2681-2685, 2018 12 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30188969

RESUMO

Mendelian randomization (MR) is gaining in recognition and popularity as a method for strengthening causal inference in epidemiology by utilizing genetic variants as instrumental variables. Concurrently with the explosion in empirical MR studies, there has been the steady production of new approaches for MR analysis. The recently proposed "global and individual tests for direct effects" (GLIDE) approach fits into a family of methods that aim to detect horizontal pleiotropy-at the individual single nucleotide polymorphism level and at the global level-and to adjust the analysis by removing outlying single nucleotide polymorphisms. In this commentary, we explain how existing methods can (and indeed are) being used to detect pleiotropy at the individual and global levels, although not explicitly using this terminology. By doing so, we show that the true comparator for GLIDE is not MR-Egger regression (as Dai et al., the authors of the accompanying article (Am J Epidemiol. 2018;187(12):2672-2680), claim) but rather the humble heterogeneity statistic.


Assuntos
Análise da Randomização Mendeliana , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único
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