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1.
JAMA Oncol ; 2019 Oct 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31580391

RESUMO

Importance: Moving to multigene testing for all women with breast cancer (BC) could identify many more mutation carriers who can benefit from precision prevention. However, the cost-effectiveness of this approach remains unaddressed. Objective: To estimate incremental lifetime effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of multigene testing of all patients with BC compared with the current practice of genetic testing (BRCA) based on family history (FH) or clinical criteria. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cost-effectiveness microsimulation modeling study compared lifetime costs and effects of high-risk BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2 (multigene) testing of all unselected patients with BC (strategy A) with BRCA1/BRCA2 testing based on FH or clinical criteria (strategy B) in United Kingdom (UK) and US populations. Data were obtained from 11 836 patients in population-based BC cohorts (regardless of FH) recruited to 4 large research studies. Data were collected and analyzed from January 1, 2018, through June 8, 2019. The time horizon is lifetime. Payer and societal perspectives are presented. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analyses evaluate model uncertainty. Interventions: In strategy A, all women with BC underwent BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2 testing. In strategy B, only women with BC fulfilling FH or clinical criteria underwent BRCA testing. Affected BRCA/PALB2 carriers could undertake contralateral preventive mastectomy; BRCA carriers could choose risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO). Relatives of mutation carriers underwent cascade testing. Unaffected relative carriers could undergo magnetic resonance imaging or mammography screening, chemoprevention, or risk-reducing mastectomy for BC risk and RRSO for ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and compared with standard £30 000/QALY and $100 000/QALY UK and US thresholds, respectively. Incidence of OC, BC, excess deaths due to heart disease, and the overall population effects were estimated. Results: BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2 multigene testing for all patients detected with BC annually would cost £10 464/QALY (payer perspective) or £7216/QALY (societal perspective) in the United Kingdom or $65 661/QALY (payer perspective) or $61 618/QALY (societal perspective) in the United States compared with current BRCA testing based on clinical criteria or FH. This is well below UK and US cost-effectiveness thresholds. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, unselected multigene testing remained cost-effective for 98% to 99% of UK and 64% to 68% of US health system simulations. One year's unselected multigene testing could prevent 2101 cases of BC and OC and 633 deaths in the United Kingdom and 9733 cases of BC and OC and 2406 deaths in the United States. Correspondingly, 8 excess deaths due to heart disease occurred in the United Kingdom and 35 in the United States annually. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found unselected, high-risk multigene testing for all patients with BC to be extremely cost-effective compared with testing based on FH or clinical criteria for UK and US health systems. These findings support changing current policy to expand genetic testing to all women with BC.

2.
Br J Cancer ; 121(6): 455-463, 2019 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31409912

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In the English pilot of primary cervical screening with high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), we exploited natural viral clearance over 24 months to minimise unnecessary referral of HR-HPV+ women with negative cytology. Three laboratories were permitted to use 16/18 genotyping to select women for referral at 12-month recall. We estimated the clinical impact of this early genotyping referral. METHODS: The observed numbers of women referred to colposcopy and with detected high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+), and of women who did not attend early recall in the three laboratories were compared with those estimated to represent a situation without an early genotyping referral. The 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the differences between the protocols were calculated by using a parametric bootstrap. RESULTS: Amongst 127,238 screened women, 16,097 (13%) had HR-HPV infections. The genotyping protocol required 5.9% (95% CI: 4.4-7.7) additional colposcopies and led to a detection of 1.2% additional CIN2+ (95% CI: 0.6-2.0), while 2.3% (95% CI: 2.1-2.5) fewer HR-HPV+/cytology- women did not attend the early recall compared with the non-genotyping protocol. CONCLUSIONS: In a screening programme with high quality of triage cytology and high adherence to early recall,16/18 genotyping of persistent HPV infections does not substantially increase CIN2+ detection.

3.
J Pathol ; 249(3): 332-342, 2019 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31259422

RESUMO

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has a 5-year survival rate of less than 4% and desperately needs novel effective therapeutics. Integrin αvß6 has been linked with poor prognosis in cancer but its potential as a target in PDAC remains unclear. We report that transcriptional expression analysis revealed that high levels of ß6 mRNA correlated strongly with significantly poorer survival (n = 491 cases, p = 3.17 × 10-8 ). In two separate cohorts, we showed that over 80% of PDACs expressed αvß6 protein and that paired metastases retained αvß6 expression. In vitro, integrin αvß6 promoted PDAC cell growth, survival, migration, and invasion. Treatment of both αvß6-positive human PDAC xenografts and transgenic mice bearing αvß6-positive PDAC with the αvß6 blocking antibody 264RAD, combined with gemcitabine, significantly reduced tumour growth (p < 0.0001) and increased survival (log-rank test, p < 0.05). Antibody therapy was associated with suppression of tumour cell activity (suppression of pErk growth signals, increased apoptosis seen as activated caspase-3) and suppression of the pro-tumourigenic microenvironment (suppression of TGFß signalling, fewer αSMA-positive myofibroblasts, decreased blood vessel density). These data show that αvß6 promotes PDAC growth through both tumour cell and tumour microenvironment mechanisms and represents a valuable target for PDAC therapy. © 2019 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

4.
Int J Cancer ; 2019 Jun 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31251818

RESUMO

Panels of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) stratify risk for breast cancer in women from the general population, but studies are needed assess their use in a fully comprehensive model including classical risk factors, mammographic density and more than 100 SNPs associated with breast cancer. A case-control study was designed (1,668 controls, 405 cases) in women aged 47-73 years attending routine screening in Manchester UK, and enrolled in a wider study to assess methods for risk assessment. Risk from classical questionnaire risk factors was assessed using the Tyrer-Cuzick model; mean percentage visual mammographic density was scored by two independent readers. DNA extracted from saliva was genotyped at selected SNPs using the OncoArray. A predefined polygenic risk score based on 143 SNPs was calculated (SNP143). The odds ratio (OR, and 95% confidence interval, CI) per interquartile range (IQ-OR) of SNP143 was estimated unadjusted and adjusted for Tyrer-Cuzick and breast density. Secondary analysis assessed risk by oestrogen receptor (ER) status. The primary polygenic risk score was well calibrated (O/E OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.86-1.34) and accuracy was retained after adjustment for Tyrer-Cuzick risk and mammographic density (IQ-OR unadjusted 2.12, 95% CI% 1.75-2.42; adjusted 2.06, 95% CI 1.75-2.42). SNP143 was a risk factor for ER+ and ER- breast cancer (adjusted IQ-OR, ER+ 2.11, 95% CI 1.78-2.51; ER- 1.81, 95% CI 1.16-2.84). In conclusion, polygenic risk scores based on a large number of SNPs improve risk stratification in combination with classical risk factors and mammographic density, and SNP143 was similarly predictive for ER-positive and ER-negative disease.

5.
Breast Cancer Res Treat ; 176(1): 141-148, 2019 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30941651

RESUMO

PURPOSE: To improve breast cancer risk stratification to enable more targeted early detection/prevention strategies that will better balance risks and benefits of population screening programmes. METHODS: 9362 of 57,902 women in the Predicting-Risk-Of-Cancer-At-Screening (PROCAS) study who were unaffected by breast cancer at study entry and provided DNA for a polygenic risk score (PRS). The PRS was analysed alongside mammographic density (density-residual-DR) and standard risk factors (Tyrer-Cuzick-model) to assess future risk of breast cancer based on tumour stage receptor expression and pathology. RESULTS: 195 prospective incident breast cancers had a prediction based on TC/DR/PRS which was informative for subsequent breast cancer overall [IQ-OR 2.25 (95% CI 1.89-2.68)] with excellent calibration-(0.99). The model performed particularly well in predicting higher stage stage 2+ IQ-OR 2.69 (95% CI 2.02-3.60) and ER + BCs (IQ-OR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93-2.89)). DR was most predictive for HER2+ and stage 2+ cancers but did not discriminate as well between poor and extremely good prognosis BC as either Tyrer-Cuzick or PRS. In contrast, PRS gave the highest OR for incident stage 2+ cancers, [IQR-OR 1.79 (95% CI 1.30-2.46)]. CONCLUSIONS: A combined approach using Tyrer-Cuzick/DR/PRS provides accurate risk stratification, particularly for poor prognosis cancers. This provides support for reducing the screening interval in high-risk women and increasing the screening interval in low-risk women defined by this model.

6.
Br J Cancer ; 120(6): 647-657, 2019 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30787463

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: We examined the associations between germline variants and breast cancer mortality using a large meta-analysis of women of European ancestry. METHODS: Meta-analyses included summary estimates based on Cox models of twelve datasets using ~10.4 million variants for 96,661 women with breast cancer and 7697 events (breast cancer-specific deaths). Oestrogen receptor (ER)-specific analyses were based on 64,171 ER-positive (4116) and 16,172 ER-negative (2125) patients. We evaluated the probability of a signal to be a true positive using the Bayesian false discovery probability (BFDP). RESULTS: We did not find any variant associated with breast cancer-specific mortality at P < 5 × 10-8. For ER-positive disease, the most significantly associated variant was chr7:rs4717568 (BFDP = 7%, P = 1.28 × 10-7, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.84-0.92); the closest gene is AUTS2. For ER-negative disease, the most significant variant was chr7:rs67918676 (BFDP = 11%, P = 1.38 × 10-7, HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.16-1.39); located within a long intergenic non-coding RNA gene (AC004009.3), close to the HOXA gene cluster. CONCLUSIONS: We uncovered germline variants on chromosome 7 at BFDP < 15% close to genes for which there is biological evidence related to breast cancer outcome. However, the paucity of variants associated with mortality at genome-wide significance underpins the challenge in providing genetic-based individualised prognostic information for breast cancer patients.

7.
Am J Hum Genet ; 104(1): 21-34, 2019 01 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30554720

RESUMO

Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57-1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628-0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama/classificação , Neoplasias da Mama/genética , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Herança Multifatorial/genética , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Neoplasias da Mama/diagnóstico , Neoplasias da Mama/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Humanos , Anamnese , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único/genética , Receptores Estrogênicos/metabolismo , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Medição de Risco
10.
Int J Cancer ; 2018 Nov 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30412281

RESUMO

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical cancer screening requires triage of HPV positive women to identify those at risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) or worse. We conducted a blinded case-control study within the HPV FOCAL randomized cervical cancer screening trial of women aged 25-65 to examine whether baseline methylation testing using the S5 classifier provided triage performance similar to an algorithm relying on cytology and HPV genotyping. Groups were randomly selected from 257 women with known HPV/cytology results and pathology outcomes. Group 1: 104 HPV positive (HPV+), abnormal cytology (54 CIN2/3; 50

11.
Breast Cancer Res ; 20(1): 103, 2018 Sep 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30180877

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Several prognostic signatures for early oestrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer have been established with a 10-year follow-up. We tested the hypothesis that signatures optimised for 0-5-year and 5-10-year follow-up separately are more prognostic than a single signature optimised for 10 years. METHODS: Genes previously identified as prognostic or associated with endocrine resistance were tested in publicly available microarray data set using Cox regression of 747 ER+/HER2- samples from post-menopausal patients treated with 5 years of endocrine therapy. RNA expression of the selected genes was assayed in primary ER+/HER2- tumours from 948 post-menopausal patients treated with 5 years of anastrozole or tamoxifen in the TransATAC cohort. Prognostic signatures for 0-10, 0-5 and 5-10 years were derived using a penalised Cox regression (elastic net). Signature comparison was performed with likelihood ratio statistics. Validation was done by a case-control (POLAR) study in 422 samples derived from a cohort of 1449. RESULTS: Ninety-three genes were selected by the modelling of microarray data; 63 of these were significantly prognostic in TransATAC, most similarly across each time period. Contrary to our hypothesis, the derived early and late signatures were not significantly more prognostic than the 18-gene 10-year signature. The 18-gene 10-year signature was internally validated in the TransATAC validation set, showing prognostic information similar to that of Oncotype DX Recurrence Score, PAM50 risk of recurrence score, Breast Cancer Index and IHC4 (score based on four IHC markers), as well as in the external POLAR case-control set. CONCLUSIONS: The derived 10-year signature predicts risk of metastasis in patients with ER+/HER2- breast cancer similar to commercial signatures. The hypothesis that early and late prognostic signatures are significantly more informative than a single signature was rejected.

12.
Breast Cancer Res ; 20(1): 49, 2018 Jun 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29884207

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The percentage of mammographic dense tissue (PD) defined by pixel value threshold is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer. Recently there has been some evidence to suggest that an increased threshold based on visual assessment could improve risk prediction. It is unknown, however, whether this also applies to volumetric density using digital raw mammograms. METHOD: Two case-control studies nested within a screening cohort (ages of participants 46-73 years) from Manchester UK were used. In the first study (317 cases and 947 controls) cases were detected at the first screen; whereas in the second study (318 cases and 935 controls), cases were diagnosed after the initial mammogram. Volpara software was used to estimate dense tissue height at each pixel point, and from these, volumetric and area-based PD were computed at a range of thresholds. Volumetric and area-based PDs were evaluated using conditional logistic regression, and their predictive ability was assessed using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and matched concordance index (mC). RESULTS: The best performing volumetric PD was based on a threshold of 5 mm of dense tissue height (which we refer to as VPD5), and the best areal PD was at a threshold level of 6 mm (which we refer to as APD6), using pooled data and in both studies separately. VPD5 showed a modest improvement in prediction performance compared to the original volumetric PD by Volpara with ΔAIC = 5.90 for the pooled data. APD6, on the other hand, shows much stronger evidence for better prediction performance, with ΔAIC = 14.52 for the pooled data, and mC increased slightly from 0.567 to 0.577. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that imposing a 5 mm threshold on dense tissue height for volumetric PD could result in better prediction of cancer risk. There is stronger evidence that area-based density with a 6 mm threshold gives better prediction than the original volumetric density metric.

13.
Br J Cancer ; 118(12): 1559-1570, 2018 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29736009

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Mammography is less effective in detecting cancer in dense than in fatty breasts. METHODS: We undertook a systematic search in PubMed to identify studies on women with dense breasts who underwent screening with mammography supplemented with ultrasound. A meta-analysis was undertaken on the proportion of cancers detected only by ultrasound, out of all screen-detected cancers, and the proportion of women with negative mammography who were referred for assessment following ultrasound screening. RESULTS: Twenty-nine studies satisfied our inclusion criteria. The proportion of total cancers detected only by ultrasound was 0.29 (95% CI: 0.27-0.31), consistent with an approximately 40% increase in the detection of cancers compared to mammography. In the studied populations, this translated into an additional 3.8 (95% CI: 3.4-4.2) screen-detected cases per 1000 mammography-negative women. About 13% (32/248) of cancers were in situ from 17 studies with information on this subgroup. Ultrasound approximately doubled the referral for assessment in three studies with these data. CONCLUSIONS: Studies have consistently shown an increased detection of breast cancer by supplementary ultrasound screening. An inclusion of supplementary ultrasound into routine screening will need to consider the availability of ultrasound and diagnostic assessment capacities.

14.
JAMA Oncol ; 4(9): e180174, 2018 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29621362

RESUMO

Importance: Accurate long-term breast cancer risk assessment for women attending routine screening could help reduce the disease burden and intervention-associated harms by personalizing screening recommendations and preventive interventions. Objective: To report the accuracy of risk assessment for breast cancer during a period of 19 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study of the Kaiser Permanente Washington breast imaging registry included women without previous breast cancer, aged 40 to 73 years, who attended screening from January 1, 1996, through December 31, 2013. Follow-up was completed on December 31, 2014, and data were analyzed from March 2, 2016, through November 13, 2017. Exposures: Risk factors from a questionnaire and breast density from the Breast Imaging and Reporting Data System at entry; primary risk was assessed using the Tyrer-Cuzick model. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incidence of invasive breast cancer was estimated with and without breast density. Follow-up began 6 months after the entry mammogram and extended to the earliest diagnosis of invasive breast cancer, censoring at 75 years of age, 2014, diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ, death, or health plan disenrollment. Observed divided by expected (O/E) numbers of cancer cases were compared using exact Poisson 95% CIs. Hazard ratios for the top decile of 10-year risk relative to the middle 80% of the study population were estimated. Constancy of relative risk calibration during follow-up was tested using a time-dependent proportional hazards effect. Results: In this cohort study of 132 139 women (median age at entry, 50 years; interquartile range, 44-58 years), 2699 invasive breast cancers were subsequently diagnosed after a median 5.2 years of follow-up (interquartile range, 2.4-11.1 years; maximum follow-up, 19 years; annual incidence rate [IR] per 1000 women, 2.9). Observed number of cancer diagnoses was close to the expected number (O/E for the Tyrer-Cuzick model, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.98-1.06]; O/E for the Tyrer-Cuzick model with density, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.94-1.02]). The Tyrer-Cuzick model estimated 2554 women (1.9%) to be at high risk (10-year risk of ≥8%), of whom 147 subsequently developed invasive breast cancer (O/E, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.93; IR per 1000 women, 8.7). The Tyrer-Cuzick model with density estimated more women to be at high risk (4645 [3.5%]; 273 cancers [10.1%]; O/E, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.69-0.88; IR per 1000 women, 9.2). The hazard ratio for the highest risk decile compared with the middle 80% was 2.22 (95% CI, 2.02-2.45) for the Tyrer-Cuzick model and 2.55 (95% CI, 2.33-2.80) for the Tyrer-Cuzick model with density. Little evidence was found for a decrease in relative risk calibration throughout follow-up for the Tyrer-Cuzick model (age-adjusted slope, -0.003; 95% CI, -0.018 to 0.012) or the Tyrer-Cuzick model with density (age-adjusted slope, -0.008; 95% CI, -0.020 to 0.004). Conclusions and Relevance: Breast cancer risk assessment combining classic risk factors with mammographic density may provide useful data for 10 years or more and could be used to guide long-term, systematic, risk-adapted screening and prevention strategies.

15.
Breast Cancer Res ; 20(1): 10, 2018 02 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29402289

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: High mammographic density is associated with both risk of cancers being missed at mammography, and increased risk of developing breast cancer. Stratification of breast cancer prevention and screening requires mammographic density measures predictive of cancer. This study compares five mammographic density measures to determine the association with subsequent diagnosis of breast cancer and the presence of breast cancer at screening. METHODS: Women participating in the "Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening" (PROCAS) study, a study of cancer risk, completed questionnaires to provide personal information to enable computation of the Tyrer-Cuzick risk score. Mammographic density was assessed by visual analogue scale (VAS), thresholding (Cumulus) and fully-automated methods (Densitas, Quantra, Volpara) in contralateral breasts of 366 women with unilateral breast cancer (cases) detected at screening on entry to the study (Cumulus 311/366) and in 338 women with cancer detected subsequently. Three controls per case were matched using age, body mass index category, hormone replacement therapy use and menopausal status. Odds ratios (OR) between the highest and lowest quintile, based on the density distribution in controls, for each density measure were estimated by conditional logistic regression, adjusting for classic risk factors. RESULTS: The strongest predictor of screen-detected cancer at study entry was VAS, OR 4.37 (95% CI 2.72-7.03) in the highest vs lowest quintile of percent density after adjustment for classical risk factors. Volpara, Densitas and Cumulus gave ORs for the highest vs lowest quintile of 2.42 (95% CI 1.56-3.78), 2.17 (95% CI 1.41-3.33) and 2.12 (95% CI 1.30-3.45), respectively. Quantra was not significantly associated with breast cancer (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.67-1.54). Similar results were found for subsequent cancers, with ORs of 4.48 (95% CI 2.79-7.18), 2.87 (95% CI 1.77-4.64) and 2.34 (95% CI 1.50-3.68) in highest vs lowest quintiles of VAS, Volpara and Densitas, respectively. Quantra gave an OR in the highest vs lowest quintile of 1.32 (95% CI 0.85-2.05). CONCLUSIONS: Visual density assessment demonstrated a strong relationship with cancer, despite known inter-observer variability; however, it is impractical for population-based screening. Percentage density measured by Volpara and Densitas also had a strong association with breast cancer risk, amongst the automated measures evaluated, providing practical automated methods for risk stratification.

16.
BMC Public Health ; 18(1): 178, 2018 01 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29370783

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The differences between breast cancer risk factors in white British/Irish and Asian women attending screening in the UK are not well documented. METHODS: Between 2009-15 ethnicity and traditional breast cancer risk factors were self-identified by a screening cohort from Greater Manchester, with follow up to 2016. Risk factors and incidence rates were compared using age-standardised statistics (European standard population). RESULTS: Eight hundred and seventy-nine Asian women and 51,779 unaffected white British/Irish women aged 46-73 years were recruited. Asian women were at lower predicted breast cancer risk from hormonal and reproductive risk factors than white British/Irish women (mean 10 year risk 2.6% vs 3.1%, difference 0.4%, 95%CI 0.3-0.5%). White British/Irish women were more likely to have had a younger age at menarche, be overweight or obese, taller, used hormone replacement therapy and not to have had children.. However, despite being less overweight Asian women had gained more weight from age 20 years and were less likely to undertake moderate physical activity. Asian women also had a slightly higher mammographic density. Asian age-standardised incidence was 3.2 (95%CI 1.6-5.2, 18 cancers) per thousand women/year vs 4.5 (95%CI 4.2-4.8, 1076 cancers) for white British/Irish women. CONCLUSIONS: Asian women attending screening in Greater Manchester are likely to have a lower risk of breast cancer than white British/Irish women, but they undertake less physical activity and have more adult weight gain.


Assuntos
Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Asiático/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias da Mama/etnologia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Europeu/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Neoplasias da Mama/diagnóstico , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de Risco , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
17.
JAMA Oncol ; 4(4): 476-482, 2018 Apr 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29346471

RESUMO

Importance: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have demonstrated an association with breast cancer susceptibility, but there is limited evidence on how to incorporate them into current breast cancer risk prediction models. Objective: To determine whether a panel of 18 SNPs (SNP18) may be used to predict breast cancer in combination with classic risk factors and mammographic density. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study enrolled a subcohort of 9363 women, aged 46 to 73 years, without a previous breast cancer diagnosis from the larger prospective cohort of the PROCAS study (Predicting Risk of Cancer at Screening) specifically to evaluate breast cancer risk-assessment methods. Enrollment took place from October 2009 through June 2015 from multiple population-based screening centers in Greater Manchester, England. Follow-up continued through January 5, 2017. Exposures: Genotyping of 18 SNPs, visual-assessment percentage mammographic density, and classic risk assessed by the Tyrer-Cuzick risk model from a self-completed questionnaire at cohort entry. Main Outcomes and Measures: The predictive ability of SNP18 for breast cancer diagnosis (invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ) was assessed using logistic regression odds ratios per interquartile range of the predicted risk. Results: A total of 9363 women were enrolled in this study (mean [range] age, 59 [46-73] years). Of these, 466 were found to have breast cancer (271 prevalent; 195 incident). SNP18 was similarly predictive when unadjusted or adjusted for mammographic density and classic factors (odds ratios per interquartile range, respectively, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.38-1.77 and 1.53; 95% CI, 1.35-1.74), with observed risks being very close to expected (adjusted observed-to-expected odds ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.69-1.28). A combined risk assessment indicated 18% of the subcohort to be at 5% or greater 10-year risk, compared with 30% of all cancers, 35% of interval-detected cancers, and 42% of stage 2+ cancers. In contrast, 33% of the subcohort were at less than 2% risk but accounted for only 18%, 17%, and 15% of the total, interval, and stage 2+ breast cancers, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: SNP18 added substantial information to risk assessment based on the Tyrer-Cuzick model and mammographic density. A combined risk is likely to aid risk-stratified screening and prevention strategies.

18.
Stat Methods Med Res ; 27(8): 2359-2373, 2018 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27920368

RESUMO

The concordance index is often used to measure how well a biomarker predicts the time to an event. Estimators of the concordance index for predictors of right-censored data are reviewed, including those based on censored pairs, inverse probability weighting and a proportional-hazards model. Predictive and prognostic biomarkers often lose strength with time, and in this case the aforementioned statistics depend on the length of follow up. A semi-parametric estimator of the concordance index is developed that accommodates converging hazards through a single parameter in a Pareto model. Concordance index estimators are assessed through simulations, which demonstrate substantial bias of classical censored-pairs and proportional-hazards model estimators. Prognostic biomarkers in a cohort of women diagnosed with breast cancer are evaluated using new and classical estimators of the concordance index.

19.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev ; 27(1): 58-66, 2018 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29097444

RESUMO

Background: Ovarian suppression in premenopausal women is known to reduce breast cancer risk. This study aimed to assess uptake and compliance with ovarian suppression using the luteinizing hormone releasing hormone (LHRH) analogue, goserelin, with add-back raloxifene, as a potential regimen for breast cancer prevention.Methods: Women at ≥30% lifetime risk breast cancer were approached and randomized to mammographic screening alone (C-Control) or screening in addition to monthly subcutaneous injections of 3.6 mg goserelin and continuous 60 mg raloxifene daily orally (T-Treated) for 2 years. The primary endpoint was therapy adherence. Secondary endpoints were toxicity/quality of life, change in bone density, and mammographic density.Results: A total of 75/950 (7.9%) women approached agreed to randomization. In the T-arm, 20 of 38 (52%) of women completed the 2-year period of study compared with the C-arm (27/37, 73.0%). Dropouts were related to toxicity but also the wish to have established risk-reducing procedures and proven chemoprevention. As relatively few women completed the study, data are limited, but those in the T-arm reported significant increases in toxicity and sexual problems, no change in anxiety, and less cancer worry. Lumbar spine bone density declined by 7.0% and visually assessed mammographic density by 4.7% over the 2-year treatment period.Conclusions: Uptake is somewhat lower than comparable studies with tamoxifen for prevention with higher dropout rates. Raloxifene may preserve bone density, but reduction in mammographic density reversed after treatment was completed.Impact: This study indicates that breast cancer risk reduction may be possible using LHRH agonists, but reducing toxicity and preventing bone changes would make this a more attractive option. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(1); 58-66. ©2017 AACR.

20.
Oncotarget ; 8(59): 99211-99212, 2017 Nov 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29245890
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