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1.
Ann Rheum Dis ; 2021 Feb 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33568386

RESUMO

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 2019 classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus system showed high specificity, while attaining also high sensitivity. We hereby analysed the performance of the individual criteria items and their contribution to the overall performance of the criteria. METHODS: We combined the EULAR/ACR derivation and validation cohorts for a total of 1197 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and n=1074 non-SLE patients with a variety of conditions mimicking SLE, such as other autoimmune diseases, and calculated the sensitivity and specificity for antinuclear antibodies (ANA) and the 23 specific criteria items. We also tested performance omitting the EULAR/ACR criteria attribution rule, which defines that items are only counted if not more likely explained by a cause other than SLE. RESULTS: Positive ANA, the new entry criterion, was 99.5% sensitive, but only 19.4% specific, against a non-SLE population that included other inflammatory rheumatic, infectious, malignant and metabolic diseases. The specific criteria items were highly variable in sensitivity (from 0.42% for delirium and 1.84% for psychosis to 75.6% for antibodies to double-stranded DNA), but their specificity was uniformly high, with low C3 or C4 (83.0%) and leucopenia <4.000/mm³ (83.8%) at the lowest end. Unexplained fever was 95.3% specific in this cohort. Applying the attribution rule improved specificity, particularly for joint involvement. CONCLUSIONS: Changing the position of the highly sensitive, non-specific ANA to an entry criterion and the attribution rule resulted in a specificity of >80% for all items, explaining the higher overall specificity of the criteria set.

2.
Lupus ; : 961203320983445, 2021 Jan 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33402036

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Despite increased physician's awareness and improved diagnostic and serological testing in the recent years, the interval between the initial symptoms and the diagnosis of Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is still very long. Our aim was to study this delay and its association to the outcome of the disease. METHODS: Information on demographics, onset of first symptoms, first physicians visit and time of diagnosis was assessed by self-reported questionnaires among SLE patients in Germany (LuLa cohort, n = 585) in the year 2012. Disease activity (Systemic Lupus Activity Questionnaire; SLAQ), disease related damage (Brief Index of Lupus Damage; BILD), health related quality of life (Short Form 12) and fatigue (FSS) were chosen as proxies for outcome. Linear regression analysis was used to analyze the association of the delay in diagnosis to the outcome, adjusted for age, disease duration and sex. RESULTS: Mean duration between the onset of symptoms and the diagnosis of SLE was 47 months (SD 73). The longer the time to diagnosis, the higher the disease activity (ß = 0.199, p < 0.0001), the disease-related damage (ß = 0.137, p = 0.002) and fatigue (ß 0.145, p = 0.003) and the lower the health-related quality of life (physical ß = -0.136, p = 0.004, mental ß = -0.143, p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: In systemic lupus erythematosus, longer time to diagnosis was associated with worse outcome. Concepts in care with the intention to shorten the time to diagnosis are needed to improve the long-term outcome of the disease.

3.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33455907

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: As a population-wide intervention, it has been proposed to raise taxes on unhealthy products to prevent diseases such as type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect of tax policy interventions in 2020 on the projected prevalence and number of people with type 2 diabetes in the German adult population in 2040. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We applied an illness-death model and the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) to project the prevalence and number of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany under a base case scenario and under a tax policy intervention scenario. For the base case scenario, we assumed constant age-specific incidence rates between 2020 and 2040. For the intervention scenario, we assumed a 50% price increase for sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and red meat products in the year 2020. Based on price elasticities, we estimated the impact on these risk factors alone and in combination, and calculated subsequent reductions in the age-specific and sex-specific GDRS. These reductions were used to determine reductions in the incidence rate and prevalence using a partial differential equation. RESULTS: Compared with the base case scenario, combined tax interventions in 2020 resulted in a 0.95 percentage point decrease in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (16.2% vs 17.1%), which corresponds to 640 000 fewer prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes and a relative reduction by 6%. CONCLUSIONS: Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco products and red meat by 50% modestly lowered the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040. Raising taxes on unhealthy products as a stand-alone measure may not be enough to attenuate the future rise of type 2 diabetes.

4.
Lupus ; : 961203320965690, 2020 Oct 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33081589

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To comprehensively assess associations of site-specific CD4+-T-cell hypomethylation of the CD40-Ligand gene (CD40L) with disease activity of women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: CpG-sites within the DNA of the promotor and two enhancer regions (n = 22) of CD40L were identified and numbered consecutively. The rate of methylated DNA in isolated CD4+-T-cells of women with SLE were quantified for each methylation site by MALDI-TOF. Disease activity was assessed by SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI). Associations of site-specific methylation rates with the SLEDAI scores were assessed by linear regression modelling. P values were adjusted according to Bonferroni-Holm as indicated. RESULTS: 60 female SLE patients participated in the study (age 45.7 ± 11.1 years, disease duration 17.0 ± 8.3 years). Significant associations to the SLEDAI were noted for CpG22 hypomethylation of the promotor (ß = -40.1, p = 0.017, adjusted p = 0.027), trends were noted for CpG17 hypomethylation of the promotor (ß = -30.5, p = 0.032, adjusted p = 0.6), and for CpG11 hypermethylation of the second enhancer (ß = 15.0, p = 0.046, adjusted p = 0.8). CONCLUSION: Site-specific hypomethylation of the CD40L promotor in CD4+-T-cells show associations with disease activity in female SLE patients.

6.
Skeletal Radiol ; 2020 Aug 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32845377

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Because of overlapping phenotypical presentations, the diagnostic differentiation of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) remains challenging. Thus, this study aimed to examine the diagnostic value of distinct imaging features obtained by high-resolution 3-T MRI for the diagnostic differentiation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Seventeen patients with PsA and 28 patients with RA were imaged at high resolution using 3-T MRI scanners and a dedicated 16-channel hand coil. All images were analyzed according to the outcome measures in rheumatology clinical trials' (OMERACT) RAMRIS (Rheumatoid Arthritis Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score) and PsAMRIS (Psoriatic Arthritis Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score) for the presence and intensity of synovitis, flexor tenosynovitis, bone edema, bone erosion, periarticular inflammation, bone proliferation, and joint space narrowing. Next, odds ratios (OR) were calculated to determine the strength of the associations between these imaging features, demographic characteristics, and the outcome RA vs. PsA. RESULTS: PsA could be differentiated from RA by extracapsular inflammatory changes (PsAMRIS sub-score "periarticular inflammation"), with low odds for the presence of RA (OR of 0.06, p < 0.01) at all metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints. A prediction model informed by the items that were strongest associated with the presence of RA or PsA demonstrated excellent differentiating capability with an area under the curve of 98.1%. CONCLUSION: High-resolution imaging is beneficial for the identification of relevant imaging features that may assist the clinical differentiation of inflammatory conditions of the hand. At the MCP level, extracapsular inflammatory changes were strongly associated with PsA and may consequently allow the imaging differentiation of PsA and RA.

7.
Ann Rheum Dis ; 79(10): 1333-1339, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32816709

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 2019 Classification Criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have been validated with high sensitivity and specificity. We evaluated the performance of the new criteria with regard to disease duration, sex and race/ethnicity, and compared its performance against the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) 2012 and ACR 1982/1997 criteria. METHODS: Twenty-one SLE centres from 16 countries submitted SLE cases and mimicking controls to form the validation cohort. The sensitivity and specificity of the EULAR/ACR 2019, SLICC 2012 and ACR 1982/1997 criteria were evaluated. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of female (n=1098), male (n=172), Asian (n=118), black (n=68), Hispanic (n=124) and white (n=941) patients; with an SLE duration of 1 to <3 years (n=196) and ≥5 years (n=879). Among patients with 1 to <3 years disease duration, the EULAR/ACR criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria (97% vs 81%). The EULAR/ACR criteria performed well in men (sensitivity 93%, specificity 96%) and women (sensitivity 97%, specificity 94%). Among women, the EULAR/ACR criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria (97% vs 83%) and better specificity than the SLICC criteria (94% vs 82%). Among white patients, the EULAR/ACR criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria (95% vs 83%) and better specificity than the SLICC criteria (94% vs 83%). The EULAR/ACR criteria performed well among black patients (sensitivity of 98%, specificity 100%), and had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria among Hispanic patients (100% vs 86%) and Asian patients (97% vs 77%). CONCLUSIONS: The EULAR/ACR 2019 criteria perform well among patients with early disease, men, women, white, black, Hispanic and Asian patients. These criteria have superior sensitivity than the ACR criteria and/or superior specificity than the SLICC criteria across many subgroups.


Assuntos
Lúpus Eritematoso Sistêmico/classificação , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Seleção de Pacientes , Sensibilidade e Especificidade
8.
Arthritis Res Ther ; 22(1): 167, 2020 07 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32631453

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the diagnostic potential of IgG antibodies to citrullinated and corresponding native autoantigens in early arthritis. METHODS: IgG autoantibodies to 390 distinct unmodified and corresponding in vitro citrullinated recombinant proteins were measured by a multiplex assay in baseline blood samples from a German multicenter national cohort of 411 early arthritis patients (56.5 ± 14.6 years, 62.8% female). The cohort was randomly split into a training cohort (n = 329, 28.6% ACPA positive) and a validation cohort (n = 82, 32.9% ACPA pos.). The diagnostic properties of candidate antibodies to predict a subsequent diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as opposed to a non-RA diagnosis were assessed by receiver operating characteristics analysis and generalized linear modeling (GLM) with Bonferroni correction in comparison to clinically determined IgM rheumatoid factor (RF) and citrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA) status. RESULTS: Of 411 patients, 309 (75.2%) were classified as RA. Detection rates of antibody responses to citrullinated and uncitrullinated forms of the proteins were weakly correlated (Spearman's r = 0.13 (95% CI 0.029-0.22), p = 0.01). The concentration of 34 autoantibodies (32 to citrullinated and 2 to uncitrullinated antigens) was increased at least 2-fold in RA patients and further assessed. In the training cohort, a significant association of citrullinated "transformer 2 beta homolog" (cTRA2B)-IgG with RA was observed (OR 5.3 × 103, 95% CI 0.8 × 103-3.0 × 106, p = 0.047). Sensitivity and specificity of cTRA2B-IgG (51.0%/82.9%) were comparable to RF (30.8%/91.6%) or ACPA (32.1%/94.7%). Similar results were obtained in the validation cohort. The addition of cTRA2B-IgG to ACPA improved the diagnostic performance over ACPA alone (p = 0.026 by likelihood ratio test). CONCLUSIONS: cTRA2B-IgG has the potential to improve RA diagnosis in conjunction with RF and ACPA in early arthritis.

9.
Arthritis Res Ther ; 22(1): 124, 2020 05 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32471515

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Even though cartilage loss is a known feature of psoriatic arthritis (PsA), little is known about its role in the pathogenesis of PsA. Using delayed gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging of cartilage (dGEMRIC) as a non-invasive marker of the tissue's proteoglycan content, such early (i.e., pre-morphological) changes have been associated with inflammation in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Yet, this association has not been studied before in PsA. METHODS: The metacarpophalangeal (MCP), proximal interphalangeal (PIP), and distal interphalangeal (DIP) joints of 17 patients with active PsA were evaluated by high-resolution clinical standard morphological and dGEMRIC sequences using a 3T MRI scanner (Magnetom Skyra, Siemens) and a dedicated 16-channel hand coil. Images were analyzed by two independent raters for dGEMRIC indices, PsA MRI scores (PsAMRIS), and total cartilage thickness (TCT). Kendall tau correlation coefficients (τ) were calculated. RESULTS: We found significant negative correlations between dGEMRIC indices and total PsAMRIS (τ = - 0.5, p = 0.012), synovitis (τ = - 0.56, p = 0.006), flexor tenosynovitis (τ = - 0.4, p = 0.049), and periarticular inflammation (τ = - 0.72, p < 0.001). Significant positive correlations were found between TCT and dGEMRIC indices at all joint levels (τ = 0.43, p < 0.001). No significant correlations were determined between dGEMRIC indices and bone erosion, bone edema, or bone proliferation. CONCLUSION: In PsA, proteoglycan loss as assessed by dGEMRIC is associated with periarticular inflammation, synovitis, and flexor tenosynovitis, but not with bone erosion or proliferation. Thereby, these findings contribute to in vivo concepts of the disease's pathophysiology. Beyond morphology, advanced MRI techniques may be used to assess cartilage composition in PsA and to identify early changes in the cartilage as an imaging biomarker with potential application in detection, monitoring, and prediction of outcomes of PsA. TRIAL REGISTRATION: 2014123117, December 2014.

10.
BMC Res Notes ; 13(1): 216, 2020 Apr 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32299486

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the numerical properties of two recently published estimation techniques for excess mortality based on aggregated data about diabetes in Germany. RESULTS: Application of the new methods to the claims data yields implausible findings for the excess mortality of type 2 diabetes in ages below 50 years of age.

12.
Arthritis Res Ther ; 22(1): 40, 2020 03 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32122392

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the value of 3 Tesla (T) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) changes of flexor tendon pulleys for the differentiation of psoriatic (PsA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA), using a novel 16-channel high-resolution hand coil. METHODS: Seventeen patients with active PsA, 20 patients with active RA, and 16 healthy controls (HC) underwent high-resolution 3 T MRI using the dedicated 16-channel hand coil. Images were analyzed by three independent readers for the degree of inflammatory changes, thickness of flexor tendon pulleys, and comparison to the outcome measures for RA clinical trials (OMERACT) PsA MRI score (PsAMRIS) and to its sub-scores. For correlation analyses, Spearman rho correlation was calculated. RESULTS: Flexor tendon pulleys were thicker in PsA than in RA patients (mean difference 0.16 mm, p < 0.001) and HC (mean difference 0.2 mm, p < 0.001) and showed a higher degree of associated inflammatory changes (mean difference from RA 4.7, p = 0.048; mean difference from HC 14.65, p < 0.001). Additionally, there was a strong correlation of accessory pulley inflammation and PsAMRIS and its acute-inflammatory sub-scores, flexor tenosynovitis, synovitis, and periarticular inflammation (for the second digit synovitis ρ = 0.72, flexor tenosynovitis ρ = 0.7, overall PsAMRIS ρ = 0.72, p < 0.01). Similar robust correlations were evident in digits 3-5. Weaker correlations were evident in RA (synovitis ρ = 0.49, flexor tenosynovitis ρ = 0.49, periarticular inflammation ρ = 0.4). CONCLUSION: The assessment of MRI changes of flexor tendon pulleys is potentially beneficial for disease detection in PsA, as well as for its distinction from RA and HC. TRIAL REGISTRATION: 2014123117, December 2014.


Assuntos
Artrite Psoriásica/diagnóstico por imagem , Artrite Reumatoide/diagnóstico por imagem , Imagem por Ressonância Magnética/instrumentação , Imagem por Ressonância Magnética/métodos , Tendões/diagnóstico por imagem , Adulto , Idoso , Artrite Psoriásica/patologia , Artrite Reumatoide/patologia , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Feminino , Mãos , Humanos , Interpretação de Imagem Assistida por Computador , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Tendões/patologia
13.
Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken) ; 72(12): 1820-1826, 2020 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31560454

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: A project aimed at developing new classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is based on weighted criteria that include both laboratory and clinical items. Combinations of certain symptoms may occur commonly in SLE, which provides an argument against independently counting these items. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the interrelationship between candidate criteria items in the International Early SLE cohort and in the Euro-Lupus cohort. METHODS: The International Early SLE cohort included 389 patients, who were diagnosed within 3 years prior to the study. Data on the ACR's 1997 update of the SLE revised criteria, the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics 2012 criteria, and on 30 additional items were collected. To evaluate the interrelationship of the criteria, a tetrachoric correlation was used to assess the degree of association between different manifestations in the same organ system. The correlations identified in the International Early SLE cohort were validated in the Euro-Lupus cohort. RESULTS: A few relevant correlations were observed among specific clinical cutaneous manifestations (in particular, malar rash correlated with photosensitivity, alopecia, and oral ulcers) and serologic manifestations (anti-Sm and anti-double-stranded DNA and anti-RNA polymerase, anti-Ro and anti-La, and antiphospholipid antibodies), and these results were validated in the Euro-Lupus cohort. The associations within the mucocutaneous domain, hematologic and the specific autoantibodies suggest that within a single domain only the highest ranking item should be counted to avoid overrepresentation. CONCLUSION: Some of the candidate SLE criteria cluster within domains. Given these interrelationships, multiple criteria within a domain should not be independently counted. These results are important to consider for the structure of new SLE classification criteria.

14.
J Rheumatol ; 47(1): 15-19, 2020 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30877219

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess associations of synovial perfusion, cartilage quality, and outcome in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Synovial perfusion and cartilage quality were assessed by dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging in metacarpophalangeal joints of 28 treatment-naive patients with RA at baseline and at 3 and 6 months after methotrexate. Analysis was by linear mixed modeling. RESULTS: Synovial perfusion variables were associated with remission (p < 0.05) and cartilage quality (p < 0.004). Maximum synovial enhancement was associated to European League Against Rheumatism response (p < 0.05). Synovial perfusion improved in nonresponders over time (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Synovial perfusion relates to remission, response, and cartilage quality in a cohort of therapy-naive patients with early RA.

16.
Clin Exp Rheumatol ; 38(4): 691-698, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31858962

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: It is still controversial whether autoantibody (AAb) serum levels have a value for response monitoring in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Therefore, we retrospectively investigated a real-life outpatient RA cohort to determine which factors are associated with change in serum AAb levels and RA disease activity. The primary goal of the study was to determine predictors for changes in DAS28 and autoantibodies over time and identify traits of non-rituximab treated patients, which would define strong association of disease activity with changes in AAb-levels. METHODS: Seventy-eight patients with seropositive RA were monitored for DAS28, CRP, ESR, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptides (CCP), anti-mutated citrullinated vimentin (MCV), and rheumatoid factor (RF). Using linear mixed regression modelling, factors influencing DAS28 and serum AAb were determined. Patients showing above (good correlators) and below (bad correlators) average correlation of serum AAb with DAS28 were further characterised. RESULTS: In non-rituximab treated patients (88.5%), associations of changes in AAb and DAS28 were strengthened with more morning stiffness (p=0.002), DMARD use (p=0.02), tender joints (p=0.01), swollen joints (p<0.01), higher ESR (p<0.01) and VAS (p<0.001) at baseline. Decrease of anti-CCP was also predicted by longer disease duration (-4.4 U/ml per year disease duration, p=0.048) and/or no erosions (-2.0 U/ml/month, p<0.01) at baseline, whereas erosive disease predicted an increase (+1.4 U/ml/month, p=0.015) in anti-CCP. Conversely, patients with erosive disease showed a trend to decrease RF (-1.9 U/ml/month, p=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: In non-rituximab treated RA patients, the association between disease activity and change in autoantibody levels is not static, but strengthens with increase in signs of inflammation (ESR, VAS, swollen joints, tender joints, morning stiffness) at baseline. Therefore, studies of changes in AAb need to consider baseline inflammation as confounder.


Assuntos
Artrite Reumatoide , Peptídeos Cíclicos , Autoanticorpos , Biomarcadores , Humanos , Inflamação , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fator Reumatoide
17.
PLoS One ; 14(12): e0226554, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31846478

RESUMO

Recently, we developed a partial differential equation (PDE) that relates the age-specific prevalence of a chronic disease with the age-specific incidence and mortality rates in the illness-death model (IDM). With a view to planning population-wide interventions, the question arises how prevalence can be calculated if the distribution of a risk-factor in the population shifts. To study the impact of such possible interventions, it is important to deal with the resulting changes of risk-factors that affect the rates in the IDM. The aim of this work is to show how the PDE can be used to study such effects on the age-specific prevalence of a chronic disease, to demonstrate its applicability and to compare the results to a discrete event simulation (DES), a frequently used simulation technique. This is done for the first time based on the PDE which only needs data on population-wide epidemiological indices and is related to the von Foerster equation. In a simulation study, we analyse the effect of a hypothetical intervention against type 2 diabetes. We compare the age-specific prevalence obtained from a DES with the results predicted from modifying the rates in the PDE. The DES is based on 10000 subjects and estimates the effect of changes in the distributions of risk-factors. With respect to the PDE, the change of the distribution of risk factors is synthesized to an effective rate that can be used directly in the PDE. Both methods, DES and effective rate method (ERM) are capable of predicting the impact of the hypothetical intervention. The age-specific prevalences resulting from the DES and the ERM are consistent. Although DES is common in simulating effects of hypothetical interventions, the ERM is a suitable alternative. ERM fits well into the analytical theory of the IDM and the related PDE and comes with less computational effort.


Assuntos
Doença Crônica/epidemiologia , Morte , Modelos Estatísticos , Humanos , Incidência , Prevalência , Fatores de Risco
18.
Patient Prefer Adherence ; 13: 1889-1894, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31806937

RESUMO

Purpose: Since the launch of belimumab in 2011, the BLyS antibody has been increasingly used in the therapy of systemic Lupus erythematosus (SLE). Comparative studies showed that the intravenous (i.v.) and subcutaneous (s.c.) administration forms do not differ in their efficacy. Since the approval of the s.c. therapy, many patients have been switched from i.v. to s.c. administration. The clinical course of these patients and their satisfaction regarding the drug have not yet been investigated. Methods: A total of 9 patients with SLE were switched from i.v. to s.c. belimumab between 12/2017 and 03/2018. We assessed a self-developed questionnaire on drug satisfaction, disease activity (SLEDAI-2k), serological activity (leukocytes, DNA antibodies, complement), disease damage (SLICC/ACR damage index) and functional status (health-assessment questionnaire) at switching (T0) and after 6 months (T1). Association of the questionnaires with the form of administration (i.v. vs s.c.) was analyzed for each variable separately by linear regression analyses, adjusted for age, gender and disease duration. Results: At switching, disease activity of all patients was well controlled (median SLEDAI-2k = 2 [Interquartile range 0-4]) and the patients were mainly satisfied with their therapy. No evidence for any difference in disease activity, disease damage or patient satisfaction 6 months after switching was found. In tendency, patients were more satisfied with the s.c. administration. Conclusion: The switch from i.v. to s.c. belimumab was successful in all cases and had no effect on disease activity or patient satisfaction. Despite the small sample size, s.c. belimumab seems to offer a good alternative to i.v. application.

19.
BMC Med Res Methodol ; 19(1): 213, 2019 11 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31775635

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: We recently introduced a system of partial differential equations (PDEs) to model the prevalence of chronic diseases with a possibly prolonged state of asymptomatic, undiagnosed disease preceding a diagnosis. Common examples for such diseases include coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes or cancer. Widespread application of the new method depends upon mathematical treatment of the system of PDEs. METHODS: In this article, we study the existence and the uniqueness of the solution of the system of PDEs. To demonstrate the usefulness and importance of the system, we model the age-specific prevalence of hypertension in the US 1999-2010. RESULTS: The examinations of mathematical properties provide a way to solve the systems of PDEs by the method of characteristics. In the application to hypertension, we obtain a good agreement between modeled and surveyed age-specific prevalences. CONCLUSIONS: The described system of PDEs provides a practical way to examine the epidemiology of chronic diseases with a state of undiagnosed disease preceding a diagnosis.


Assuntos
Hipertensão/diagnóstico , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , Computação Matemática , Modelos Estatísticos , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Doença Crônica , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
20.
Ann Epidemiol ; 37: 37-42, 2019 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31383511

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Most surveillance efforts in childhood diabetes have focused on incidence, whereas prevalence is rarely reported. This study aimed to assess whether a mathematical illness-death model accurately estimated future prevalence from baseline prevalence and incidence rates in children. METHODS: SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth is an ongoing population-based surveillance study of prevalence and incidence of diabetes and its complications among youth in the United States. We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific SEARCH estimates of the prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in 2001 and incidence from 2002 to 2008. These data were used in a partial differential equation to estimate prevalence in 2009 with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Model-based prevalence was compared with the observed prevalence in 2009. RESULTS: Most confidence intervals for the difference between estimated and observed prevalence included zero, indicating no evidence for a difference between the two methods. The width of confidence intervals indicated high precision for the estimated prevalence when considering all races/ethnicities. In strata with few cases, precision was reduced. CONCLUSIONS: Future prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in youth may be accurately estimated from baseline prevalence and incidence. Diabetes surveillance could benefit from potential cost savings of this method.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Distribuição por Idade , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/etnologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/etnologia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Masculino , Modelos Teóricos , Prevalência , Distribuição por Sexo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
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