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1.
Lancet Glob Health ; 2020 Feb 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32087815

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018. METHODS: We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. FINDINGS: In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109·5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63·1-190·6), 10·1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6·8-15·1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION: A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

3.
Glob Health Action ; 12(1): 1680068, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31648624

RESUMO

Half of the world's deaths and their causes pass unrecorded by routine registration systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Verbal autopsy (VA) collects information on medical signs, symptoms and circumstances from witnesses of a death that is used to assign likely medical causes. To further contextualise information on mortality, understanding underlying determinants, such as logistics, barriers to service utilisation and health systems responses, is important for health planning. Adding systematic methods for categorising circumstantial determinants of death to conventional VA tools is therefore important. In this context, the World Health Organization (WHO) leads the development of international standards for VA, and added questions on the social and health systems circumstances of death in 2012. This paper introduces a pragmatic and scalable approach for assigning relevant Circumstances Of Mortality CATegories (COMCATs) within VA tools, and examines their consistency, reproducibility and plausibility for health policy making, as well as assessing additional effort and cost to the routine VA process. This innovative COMCAT model is integrated with InterVA-5 software (which processes WHO-2016 VA data), for assigning numeric likelihoods to six circumstantial categories for each death. VA data from 4,116 deaths in the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa from 2012 to 2016 were used to demonstrate proof of principle for COMCATs. Lack of resources to access health care, poor recognition of diseases and inadequate health systems responses ranked highest among COMCATs in the demonstration dataset. COMCATs correlated plausibly with age, sex, causes of death and local knowledge of the demonstration population. The COMCAT approach appears to be plausible, feasible and enhances the functionality of routine VA to account for critical limiting circumstances at and around the time of death. It is a promising tool for evaluating progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals and the roll-out of Universal Health Coverage.

4.
Bull World Health Organ ; 97(9): 589-596, 2019 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31474771

RESUMO

Objective: To investigate whether the key metric for monitoring progress towards sustainable development goal target 3.4 that is measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality (deaths among people aged 30-69 years), is ageist. Methods: To examine the relationship between premature noncommunicable disease mortality and noncommunicable disease mortality in older people, a database of mortality rates for cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes in people aged 30 to 69 years and 70 to 89 years was compiled using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The data covered 195 countries, six time-points and both sexes, giving 2340 instances. The World Health Organization's (WHO's) life-table method for the premature noncommunicable disease mortality metric was applied to the data. Findings: There was a strong correlation between noncommunicable disease mortality patterns in the premature and older age groups, which suggests that measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality is informative about such mortality in later life. Neither time nor geographical location had a substantial effect on this correlation. However, there were female-to-male differences in age-specific probabilities of death due to noncommunicable disease, implying that noncommunicable disease mortality should be assessed using a sex-disaggregated approach. Conclusion: As the established WHO metric for premature noncommunicable disease mortality was predictive of noncommunicable disease mortality in older people, the metric should not be construed as ageist. Focusing resources on measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality will be appropriate, particularly in settings without universal civil death registration. This approach should not prejudice the provision of health services throughout the life-course.

5.
BMJ Glob Health ; 4(3): e001377, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31263583

RESUMO

Background: South Africa is a semiarid country where 5 million people, mainly in rural areas, lack access to water. Despite legislative and policy commitments to the right to water, cooperative governance and public participation, many authorities lack the means to engage with and respond to community needs. The objectives were to develop local knowledge on health priorities in a rural province as part of a programme developing community evidence for policy and planning. Methods: We engaged 24 participants across three villages in the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System and codesigned the study. This paper reports on lack of clean, safe water, which was nominated in one village (n=8 participants) and in which women of reproductive age were nominated as a group whose voices are excluded from attention to the issue. On this basis, additional participants were recruited (n=8). We then held a series of consensus-building workshops to develop accounts of the problem and actions to address it using Photovoice to document lived realities. Thematic analysis of narrative and visual data was performed. Results: Repeated and prolonged periods when piped water is unavailable were reported, as was unreliable infrastructure, inadequate service delivery, empty reservoirs and poor supply exacerbated by droughts. Interconnected social, behavioural and health impacts were documented combined with lack of understanding, cooperation and trust between communities and authorities. There was unanimity among participants for taps in houses as an overarching goal and strategies to build an evidence base for planning and advocacy were developed. Conclusion: In this setting, there is willingness among community stakeholders to improve water security and there are existing community assemblies to support this. Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance Systems provide important opportunities to routinely connect communities to resource management and service delivery. Developing learning platforms with government and non-government organisations may offer a means to enable more effective public participation in decentralised water governance.

6.
PLoS One ; 14(6): e0218101, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31194787

RESUMO

Despite the significant reductions seen in under-5 child mortality in Ethiopia over the last two decades, more than 10,000 children still die each year in Tigray Region alone, of whom 75% die from preventable diseases. Using an equity lens, this study aimed to investigate the social determinants of child health in one particularly vulnerable district as a means of informing the health policy decision-making process. An exploratory qualitative study design was adopted, combining focus group discussions and qualitative interviews. Seven Focus Group Discussions with mothers of young children, and 21 qualitative interviews with health workers were conducted in Wolkayit district in May-June 2015. Data were subjected to thematic analysis. Mothers' knowledge regarding the major causes of child mortality appeared to be good, and they also knew about and trusted the available child health interventions. However, utilization and practice of these interventions was limited by a range of issues, including cultural factors, financial shortages, limited female autonomy on financial resources, seasonal mobility, and inaccessible or unaffordable health services. Our findings pointed to the importance of a multi-sectoral strategy to improve child health equity and reduce under-5 mortality in Wolkayit. Recommendations include further decentralizing child health services to local-level Health Posts, and increasing the number of Health Facilities based on local topography and living conditions.

7.
BMJ Open ; 9(6): e027576, 2019 06 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31167869

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Injury burden is highest in low-income and middle-income countries. To reduce avoidable deaths, it is necessary to identify health system deficiencies preventing timely, quality care. We developed criteria to use verbal autopsy (VA) data to identify avoidable deaths and associated health system deficiencies. SETTING: Agincourt, a rural Bushbuckridge municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. PARTICIPANTS: Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System and healthcare providers (HCPs) from local hospitals. METHODS: A literature review to explore definitions of avoidable deaths after trauma and barriers to access to care using the 'three delays framework' (seeking, reaching and receiving care) was performed. Based on these definitions, this study developed criteria, applicable for use with VA data, for identifying avoidable death and which of the three delays contributed to avoidable deaths. These criteria were then applied retrospectively to the VA-defined category external injury deaths (EIDs-a subset of which are trauma deaths) from 2012 to 2015. The findings were validated by external expert review. Key informant interviews (KIIs) with HCPs were performed to further explore delays to care. RESULTS: Using VA data, avoidable death was defined with a focus on survivability, using level of consciousness at the scene and ability to seek care as indicators. Of 260 EIDs (189 trauma deaths), there were 104 (40%) avoidable EIDs and 78 (30%) avoidable trauma deaths (41% of trauma deaths). Delay in receiving care was the largest contributor to avoidable EIDs (61%) and trauma deaths (59%), followed by delay in seeking care (24% and 23%) and in reaching care (15% and 18%). KIIs revealed context-specific factors contributing to the third delay, including difficult referral systems. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of EIDs and trauma deaths were avoidable, mainly occurring due to facility-based delays in care. Interventions, including strengthening referral networks, may substantially reduce trauma deaths.

8.
Health Policy Plan ; 34(6): 418-429, 2019 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31243457

RESUMO

Following 50 years of apartheid, South Africa introduced visionary health policy committing to the right to health as part of a primary health care (PHC) approach. Implementation is seriously challenged, however, in an often-dysfunctional health system with scarce resources and a complex burden of avoidable mortality persists. Our aim was to develop a process generating evidence of practical relevance on implementation processes among people excluded from access to health systems. Informed by health policy and systems research, we developed a collaborative learning platform in which we worked as co-researchers with health authorities in a rural province. This article reports on the process and insights brought by health systems stakeholders. Evidence gaps on under-five mortality were identified with a provincial Directorate after which we collected quantitative and qualitative data. We applied verbal autopsy to quantify levels, causes and circumstances of deaths and participatory action research to gain community perspectives on the problem and priorities for action. We then re-convened health systems stakeholders to analyse and interpret these data through which several systems issues were identified as contributory to under-five deaths: staff availability and performance; service organization and infrastructure; multiple parallel initiatives; and capacity to address social determinants. Recommendations were developed ranging from immediate low- and no-cost re-organization of services to those where responses from higher levels of the system or outside were required. The process was viewed as acceptable and relevant for an overburdened system operating 'in the dark' in the absence of local data. Institutional infrastructure for evidence-based decision-making does not exist in many health systems. We developed a process connecting research evidence on rural health priorities with the means for action and enabled new partnerships between communities, authorities and researchers. Further development is planned to understand potential in deliberative processes for rural PHC.

9.
BMC Med ; 17(1): 102, 2019 05 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31146736

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy is an increasingly important methodology for assigning causes to otherwise uncertified deaths, which amount to around 50% of global mortality and cause much uncertainty for health planning. The World Health Organization sets international standards for the structure of verbal autopsy interviews and for cause categories that can reasonably be derived from verbal autopsy data. In addition, computer models are needed to efficiently process large quantities of verbal autopsy interviews to assign causes of death in a standardised manner. Here, we present the InterVA-5 model, developed to align with the WHO-2016 verbal autopsy standard. This is a harmonising model that can process input data from WHO-2016, as well as earlier WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats, to generate standardised cause-specific mortality profiles for diverse contexts. The software development involved building on the earlier InterVA-4 model, and the expanded knowledge base required for InterVA-5 was informed by analyses from a training dataset drawn from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration verbal autopsy reference dataset, as well as expert input. RESULTS: The new model was evaluated against a test dataset of 6130 cases from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration and 4009 cases from the Afghanistan National Mortality Survey dataset. Both of these sources contained around three quarters of the input items from the WHO-2016, WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats. Cause-specific mortality fractions across all applicable WHO cause categories were compared between causes assigned in participating tertiary hospitals and InterVA-5 in the test dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.92 for children and 0.86 for adults. The InterVA-5 model's capacity to handle different input formats was evaluated in the Afghanistan dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.97 and 0.96 between the WHO-2016 and the WHO-2012 format for children and adults respectively, and 0.92 and 0.87 between the WHO-2016 and the Tariff-2 format respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the inherent difficulties of determining "truth" in assigning cause of death, these findings suggest that the InterVA-5 model performs well and succeeds in harmonising across a range of input formats. As more primary data collected under WHO-2016 become available, it is likely that InterVA-5 will undergo minor re-versioning in the light of practical experience. The model is an important resource for measuring and evaluating cause-specific mortality globally.


Assuntos
Autopsia/métodos , Simulação por Computador , Processamento Eletrônico de Dados , Entrevistas como Assunto , Integração de Sistemas , Adulto , Afeganistão/epidemiologia , Autopsia/normas , Causas de Morte , Criança , Simulação por Computador/normas , Conjuntos de Dados como Assunto , Processamento Eletrônico de Dados/métodos , Processamento Eletrônico de Dados/normas , Feminino , Humanos , Entrevistas como Assunto/métodos , Entrevistas como Assunto/normas , Masculino , Saúde da População , Indicadores de Qualidade em Assistência à Saúde , Software , Centros de Atenção Terciária , Incerteza , Comportamento Verbal , Organização Mundial da Saúde
10.
Glob Health Action ; 12(1): 1608013, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31092155

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Understanding socioeconomic disparities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality can help inform prevention and treatment strategies. OBJECTIVES: To quantify cause-specific mortality rates by socioeconomic status across seven health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) in five countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Nigeria) in the INDEPTH Network in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We linked demographic residence data with household survey data containing living standards and education information we used to create a poverty index. Person-years lived and deaths between 2003 and 2016 (periods varied by HDSS) were stratified in each HDSS by age, sex, year, and number of deprivations on the poverty index (0-8). Causes of death were assigned to each death using the InterVA-4 model based on responses to verbal autopsy questionnaires. We estimated rate ratios between socioeconomic groups (2-4 and 5-8 deprivations on our poverty index compared to 0-2 deprivations) for specific causes of death and calculated life expectancy for the deprivation groups. RESULTS: Our pooled data contained almost 3.5 million person-years of observation and 25,038 deaths. All-cause mortality rates were higher among people in households with 5-8 deprivations on our poverty index compared to 0-2 deprivations, controlling for age, sex, and year (rate ratios ranged 1.42 to 2.06 across HDSS sites). The poorest group had consistently higher death rates in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions (rate ratios ranged 1.34-4.05) and for non-communicable diseases in several sites (1.14-1.93). The disparities in mortality between 5-8 deprivation groups and 0-2 deprivation groups led to lower life expectancy in the higher-deprivation groups by six years in all sites and more than 10 years in five sites. CONCLUSIONS: We show large disparities in mortality on the basis of socioeconomic status across seven HDSS in sub-Saharan Africa due to disparities in communicable disease mortality and from non-communicable diseases in some sites. Life expectancy gaps between socioeconomic groups within sites were similar to the gaps between high-income and lower-middle-income countries. Prevention and treatment efforts can benefit from understanding subpopulations facing higher mortality from specific conditions.


Assuntos
Causas de Morte , Demografia/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Expectativa de Vida , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , Classe Social , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Adolescente , Adulto , Etiópia , Feminino , Humanos , Quênia , Malaui , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Moçambique , Nigéria , Vigilância da População , Inquéritos e Questionários
11.
AIDS Care ; 31(10): 1271-1281, 2019 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30957540

RESUMO

Services that aim to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) can simultaneously reduce the overall impact of HIV infection in a population while also improving maternal and child health outcomes. By taking a health equity perspective, this retrospective case control study aimed to compare the health status of under-5 children born to HIV-positive and HIV-negative mothers in Tigray Region, Ethiopia. Two hundred and thirteen HIV-positive women (cases), and 214 HIV-negative women (controls) participated through interviews regarding their oldest children. Of the children born to HIV-positive mothers, 24% had not been tested, and 17% of those who had been tested were HIV-positive themselves. Only 29% of the HIV-positive children were linked to an ART programme. Unexpectedly, exposed HIV-negative children had fewer reports of perceived poor health as compared to unexposed children. Over 90% of all the children, regardless of maternal HIV status, were breastfed and up-to-date with the recommended immunizations. The high rate of HIV infection among the babies of HIV-positive women along with their low rates of antiretroviral treatment raises serious concerns about the quality of outreach to pregnant women in Tigray Region, and of the follow-up for children who have been exposed to HIV via their mothers.

12.
J Glob Health ; 9(1): 010901, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30820319

RESUMO

Background: Under-five and maternal mortality were halved in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) era, with slower reductions for 2.6 million neonatal deaths and 2.6 million stillbirths. The Every Newborn Action Plan aims to accelerate progress towards national targets, and includes an ambitious Measurement Improvement Roadmap. Population-based household surveys, notably Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, are major sources of population-level data on child mortality in countries with weaker civil registration and vital statistics systems, where over two-thirds of global child deaths occur. To estimate neonatal/child mortality and pregnancy outcomes (stillbirths, miscarriages, birthweight, gestational age) the most common direct methods are: (1) the standard DHS-7 with Full Birth History with additional questions on pregnancy losses in the past 5 years (FBH+) or (2) a Full Pregnancy History (FPH). No direct comparison of these two methods has been undertaken, although descriptive analyses suggest that the FBH+ may underestimate mortality rates particularly for stillbirths. Methods: This is the protocol paper for the Every Newborn-INDEPTH study (INDEPTH Network, International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Every Newborn, Every Newborn Action Plan), aiming to undertake a randomised comparison of FBH+ and FPH to measure pregnancy outcomes in a household survey in five selected INDEPTH Network sites in Africa and South Asia (Bandim in urban and rural Guinea-Bissau; Dabat in Ethiopia; IgangaMayuge in Uganda; Kintampo in Ghana; Matlab in Bangladesh). The survey will reach >68 000 pregnancies to assess if there is ≥15% difference in stillbirth rates. Additional questions will capture birthweight, gestational age, birth/death certification, termination of pregnancy and fertility intentions. The World Bank's Survey Solutions platform will be tailored for data collection, including recording paradata to evaluate timing. A mixed methods assessment of barriers and enablers to reporting of pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcomes will be undertaken. Conclusions: This large-scale study is the first randomised comparison of these two methods to capture pregnancy outcomes. Results are expected to inform the evidence base for survey methodology, especially in DHS, regarding capture of stillbirths and other outcomes, notably neonatal deaths, abortions (spontaneous and induced), birthweight and gestational age. In addition, this study will inform strategies to improve health and demographic surveillance capture of neonatal/child mortality and pregnancy outcomes.


Assuntos
Mortalidade Infantil , Vigilância da População/métodos , Natimorto/epidemiologia , África/epidemiologia , Ásia/epidemiologia , Características da Família , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Gravidez , Inquéritos e Questionários
13.
Glob Health Action ; 12(1): 1569847, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30727852
14.
Lancet Glob Health ; 7(4): e404-e405, 2019 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30799145
15.
Glob Health Action ; 11(1): 1549930, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30560735

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever persists as a major global disease burden, and may increase as a consequence of climate change. Along with other measures, research actions to improve diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models are highly relevant. The European Commission funded the DengueTools consortium to lead a major initiative in these areas, and this review synthesises the outputs and findings of this work conducted from 2011 to 2016. Research areas: DengueTools organised its work into three research areas, namely [1] Early warning and surveillance systems; [2] Strategies to prevent dengue in children; and [3] Predictive models for the global spread of dengue. Research area 1 focused on case-studies undertaken in Sri Lanka, including developing laboratory-based sentinel surveillance, evaluating economic impact, identifying drivers of transmission intensity, evaluating outbreak prediction capacity and developing diagnostic capacity. Research area 2 addressed preventing dengue transmission in school children, with case-studies undertaken in Thailand. Insecticide-treated school uniforms represented an intriguing potential approach, with some encouraging results, but which were overshadowed by a lack of persistence of insecticide on the uniforms with repeated washing. Research area 3 evaluated potential global spread of dengue, particularly into dengue-naïve areas such as Europe. The role of international travel, changing boundaries of vectors, developing models of vectorial capacity under different climate change scenarios and strategies for vector control in outbreaks was all evaluated. CONCLUDING REMARKS: DengueTools was able to make significant advances in methods for understanding and controlling dengue transmission in a range of settings. These will have implications for public health agendas to counteract dengue, including vaccination programmes. OUTLOOK: Towards the end of the DengueTools project, Zika virus emerged as an unexpected epidemic in the central and southern America. Given the similarities between the dengue and Zika viruses, with vectors in common, some of the DengueTools thinking translated readily into the Zika situation.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Inseticidas/administração & dosagem , Vigilância de Evento Sentinela , Aedes , Animais , Dengue/diagnóstico , Surtos de Doenças , Epidemias , Humanos , Insetos Vetores/virologia , Internacionalidade , Sri Lanka , Tailândia , Viagem
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