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1.
Tob Control ; 2019 Sep 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31484800

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In jurisdictions in which electronic cigarettes are currently prohibited, policy makers must weigh the potentially lower risk compared with conventional cigarettes against the risk of initiation of e-cigarettes among non-smokers. METHODS: We simulated a synthetic population over a 50-year time horizon with an open cohort model using data from Singapore, a country where e-cigarettes are currently prohibited, and data from the USA, the UK and Japan. Using the smoking prevalence and the quality-adjusted life year gained calculated, we compared tobacco control policies without e-cigarettes-namely, raising the minimum legal age (MLA), introducing a smoke-free generation (SFG) and tax rises on tobacco consumption-with policies legalising e-cigarettes, either taking a laissez-faire approach or under some form of restriction. We also evaluated combinations of these policies. RESULTS: Regardless of the country informing the transition probabilities to and from e-cigarette use in Singapore, a laissez-faire e-cigarette policy could reduce the smoking prevalence in the short term, but it is not as effective as other policies in the long term. The most effective single policies evaluated were SFG and aggressive tax rises; the most effective combination of policies considered was MLA plus moderate tax rises and e-cigarettes on prescription. CONCLUSION: Policy makers in jurisdictions in which e-cigarettes are not yet established may be advised not to prioritise e-cigarettes in their tobacco end-game strategy, unless their use can be restricted to current smokers seeking to quit.

2.
J R Soc Interface ; 16(155): 20180604, 2019 Jun 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31213175

RESUMO

Singapore experienced its first known Zika outbreak in 2016. Given the lack of herd immunity, the suitability of the climate for pathogen transmission, and the year-round presence of the vector- Aedes aegypti-Zika had the potential to become endemic, like dengue. Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly are severe complications associated elsewhere with Zika and the risk of these complications makes understanding its spread imperative. We investigated the spatio-temporal spread of locally transmitted Zika in Singapore and assessed the relevance of non-residential transmission of Zika virus infections, by inferring the possible infection tree (i.e. who-infected-whom-where) and comparing inferences using geographically resolved data on cases' home, their work, or their home and work. We developed a spatio-temporal model using time of onset and both addresses of the Zika-confirmed cases between July and September 2016 to estimate the infection tree using Bayesian data augmentation. Workplaces were involved in a considerable fraction (64.2%) of infections, and homes and workplaces may be distant relative to the scale of transmission, allowing ambulant infected persons may act as the 'vector' infecting distant parts of the country. Contact tracing is a challenge for mosquito-borne diseases, but inferring the geographically structured transmission tree sheds light on the spatial transmission of Zika to immunologically naive regions of the country.

3.
Am J Epidemiol ; 188(8): 1529-1538, 2019 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31062837

RESUMO

National data on dengue notifications do not capture all dengue infections and do not reflect the true intensity of disease transmission. To assess the true dengue infection rate and disease control efforts in Singapore, we conducted age-stratified serosurveys among residents after a 2013 outbreak that was the largest dengue outbreak on record. The age-weighted prevalence of dengue immunoglobulin G among residents was 49.8% (95% confidence interval: 48.4, 51.1) in 2013 and 48.6% (95% confidence interval: 47.0, 50.0) in 2017; prevalence increased with age. Combining these data with those from previous serosurveys, the year-on-year estimates of the dengue force of infection from 1930 to 2017 revealed a significant decrease from the late 1960s to the mid-1990s, after which the force of infection remained stable at approximately 10 per 1,000 persons per year. The reproduction number (R0) had also declined since the 1960s. The reduction in dengue transmission may be attributed to the sustained national vector program and partly to a change in the age structure of the population. The improved estimated ratio of notified cases to true infections, from 1:14 in 2005-2009 to 1:6 in 2014-2017, signifies that the national notification system, which relies on diagnosed cases, has improved over time. The data also suggest that the magnitudes of dengue epidemics cannot be fairly compared across calendar years and that the current disease control program remains applicable.

4.
Sex Transm Infect ; 2019 May 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31073092

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To develop a localised instrument and Bayesian statistical method to generate size estimates-adjusted for transmission error and barrier effects-of at-risk populations in Singapore. METHODS: We conducted indepth interviews and focus group to guide the development of the survey questionnaire. The questionnaire was administered between July and August 2017 in Singapore. Using the network scale-up method (NSUM), we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the number of individuals in four hidden populations at risk of HIV. The method accounted for both transmission error and barrier effects using social acceptance measures and demographics. RESULTS: The adjusted size estimate of the population of male clients of female sex workers was 72 000 (95% CI 51 000 to 100 000), of female sex workers 4200 (95% CI 1600 to 10 000), of men who have sex with men 210 000 (95% CI 140 000 to 300 000) and of intravenous drug users 11 000 (95% CI 6500 to 17 000). CONCLUSIONS: The NSUM with adjustment for attitudes and demographics allows national-level estimates of multiple priority populations to be determined from simple surveys of the general population, even in relatively conservative societies.

5.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 116(19): 9303-9311, 2019 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30988199

RESUMO

The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female live births) imbalance in parts of the world over the past few decades is a direct consequence of sex-selective abortion, driven by the coexistence of son preference, readily available technology of prenatal sex determination, and fertility decline. Estimation of the degree of SRB imbalance is complicated because of unknown SRB reference levels and because of the uncertainty associated with SRB observations. There are needs for reproducible methods to construct SRB estimates with uncertainty, and to assess SRB inflation due to sex-selective abortion. We compile an extensive database from vital registration systems, censuses and surveys with 10,835 observations, and 16,602 country-years of information from 202 countries. We develop Bayesian methods for SRB estimation for all countries from 1950 to 2017. We model the SRB regional and national reference levels, the fluctuation around national reference levels, and the inflation. The estimated regional reference levels range from 1.031 (95% uncertainty interval [1.027; 1.036]) in sub-Saharan Africa to 1.063 [1.055; 1.072] in southeastern Asia, 1.063 [1.054; 1.072] in eastern Asia, and 1.067 [1.058; 1.077] in Oceania. We identify 12 countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB imbalance during 1970-2017, resulting in 23.1 [19.0; 28.3] million missing female births globally. The majority of those missing female births are in China, with 11.9 [8.5; 15.8] million, and in India, with 10.6 [8.0; 13.6] million.

6.
BMJ Open ; 9(3): e023859, 2019 Mar 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30842108

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To study the correlation between knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) of antibiotic consumption with epidemiology and molecular characteristics of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE) carriage, in order to identify modifiable factors and public health interventions to reduce prevalence of multidrug-resistant organism colonisation in the community. DESIGN: Cross-sectional questionnaire of KAP towards antibiotic use and collection of stool samples or rectal swabs. ESBL-PE isolates obtained underwent whole genome sequencing to identify resistance genes. SETTING: A densely populated community in Singapore. PARTICIPANTS: There were 693 healthy community-dwelling questionnaire respondents. Out of which, 305 provided stool samples or rectal swabs. RESULTS: The overall knowledge of antibiotic use was poor (mean score 4.6/10, IQR 3.0-6.0). 80 participants (80/305, 26.2%) carried at least one ESBL-PE isolate. The most common ESBL-PE was Escherichia coli sequence type 131 carrying CTX-M type beta-lactamases (11/71, 15.5%). Living overseas for >1 year (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.6 to 6.9) but not short-term travel, recent hospitalisation or antibiotic intake was associated with ESBL-PE carriage. Interestingly, higher knowledge scores (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.03 to 3.9) and having no leftover antibiotics (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 4.9) were independent factors associated with ESBL-PE carriage in the multivariate logistic regression model. CONCLUSIONS: While the role of trans-border transmission of antimicrobial resistance is well known, we may have to examine the current recommendation that all antibiotics courses have to be completed. Clinical trials to determine the optimum duration of treatment for common infections are critically important.

7.
J Infect Dis ; 219(12): 1913-1923, 2019 May 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30722024

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Few studies have evaluated the relative cross-protection conferred by infection with different groups of viruses through studies of sequential infections in humans. We investigated the presence of short-lived relative cross-protection conferred by specific prior viral infections against subsequent febrile respiratory illness (FRI). METHODS: Men enlisted in basic military training between December 2009 and December 2014 were recruited, with the first FRI as the study entry point. ResPlex II assays and real-time polymerase chain reaction assays were used to detect viral pathogens in nasal wash samples, and survival analyses were performed to determine whether infection with particular viruses conferred short-lived relative cross-protection against FRI. RESULTS: Prior infection with adenovirus (hazard ratio [HR], 0.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], .14-.44) or influenza virus (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, .38-.73) conferred relative protection against subsequent FRI episode. Results were statistically significant even after adjustment for the interval between enlistment and FRI (P < .001). Adenovirus-positive participants with FRI episodes tended to be protected against subsequent infection with adenovirus, coronavirus, enterovirus/rhinovirus, and influenza virus (P = .062-.093), while men with influenza virus-positive FRI episodes tended be protected against subsequent infection with adenovirus (P = .044) and influenza virus (P = .081). CONCLUSION: Prior adenovirus or influenza virus infection conferred cross-protection against subsequent FRI episodes relative to prior infection due to other circulating viruses.

8.
Skin Appendage Disord ; 4(4): 281-285, 2018 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30410897

RESUMO

Background: Demographic studies of hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) in Western countries have found an association with the female gender and with co-morbidities, such as the metabolic syndrome. There are few studies in an Asian context. Objective: This study examines the characteristics of HS at a Singaporean institute and compares them to those of existing studies in the West. Methods: We report a series of 58 patients with HS seen at the University Dermatological Clinic, National University Hospital, Singapore, over a 13-year period between January 2004 and December 2016. Results: Of 58 patients, 34 were male (58.6%). The axilla was the most common site affected, followed by the groin and buttocks. We did not find significant differences in disease characteristics between males and females, such as disease severity or location of disease. Metabolic co-morbidities were common, although paediatric-onset HS patients were less likely to be overweight, obese or smokers. Conclusion: The higher proportion of male HS patients in our cohort compared to the West may reflect differences in the prevalence of obesity and smoking in the 2 populations. Metabolic co-morbidities were similarly prevalent in both adult and paediatric HS patients. These findings offer insight into the factors influencing the development of HS.

9.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 2018 Oct 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30350767

RESUMO

Singapore implements school closure policy for institutional hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks, but there is a lack of empirical evidence on the effect of closure on HFMD transmission. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 197,207 cases of HFMD over the period 2003-2012 at the national level and of 57,502 cases in 10,080 institutional outbreaks over the period 2011-2016 in Singapore. The effects of school closure due to 1) institutional outbreaks, 2) public holidays, and 3) school vacations were assessed using a Bayesian time series modeling approach. School closure was associated with a reduction in HFMD transmission rate. During public holidays, average numbers of secondary cases having onset the week after dropped by 53% (95% credible interval 44-62%), and during school vacations, the number of secondary cases dropped by 7% (95% credible interval 3-10%). Schools being temporarily closed in response to an institutional outbreak reduced the average number of new cases to 1,204 (95% credible interval 1,140-1,297). Despite the positive effect in reducing transmission, the effect of school closure is relatively small and may not justify the routine use of this measure.

10.
BMJ Glob Health ; 3(4): e000801, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30233829

RESUMO

Background: Responsible for considerable global human morbidity and mortality, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of several important human diseases, including dengue and yellow fever. Although numerous variables that affect mosquito survival and reproduction have been recorded at the local and regional scales, many remain untested at the global level, potentially confounding mapping efforts to date. Methods: We develop a modelling ensemble of boosted regression trees and maximum entropy models using sets of variables previously untested at the global level to examine their performance in predicting the global distribution of these two vectors. The results show that accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperature are consistently the strongest predictors of mosquito presence. Both vectors are similar in their response to accessibility and humidity, but exhibit individual profiles for temperature. Their mapped ranges are therefore similar except at peripheral latitudes, where the range of Ae. albopictus extends further, a finding consistent with ongoing trapping studies. We show that variables previously identified as being relevant, including maximum and mean temperatures, enhanced vegetation index, relative humidity and population density, are comparatively weak performers. Results: The variables identified represent three key biological mechanisms. Cold tolerance is a critical biological parameter, controlling both species' distribution northwards, and to a lesser degree for Ae. albopictus which has consequent greater inland suitability in North America, Europe and East Asia. Absolute humidity restricts the distribution of both vectors from drier areas, where moisture availability is very low, and increases their suitability in coastal areas. The latter is exacerbated by accessibility with increased likelihood of vector importation due to greater potential for human and trade movement. Conclusion: Accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperatures were the strongest and most robust global predictors of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus presence, which should be considered in control efforts and future distribution projections.

11.
BMC Med ; 16(1): 129, 2018 08 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30078378

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dengue, a vector-borne infectious disease caused by the dengue virus, has spread through tropical and subtropical regions of the world. All four serotypes of dengue viruses are endemic in the equatorial city state of Singapore, and frequent localised outbreaks occur, sometimes leading to national epidemics. Vector control remains the primary and most effective measure for dengue control and prevention. The objective of this study is to develop a novel framework for producing a spatio-temporal dengue forecast at a neighbourhood level spatial resolution that can be routinely used by Singapore's government agencies for planning of vector control for best efficiency. METHODS: The forecasting algorithm uses a mixture of purely spatial, purely temporal and spatio-temporal data to derive dynamic risk maps for dengue transmission. LASSO-based regression was used for the prediction models and separate sub-models were constructed for each forecast window. Data were divided into training and testing sets for out-of-sample validation. Neighbourhoods were categorised as high or low risk based on the forecast number of cases within the cell. The predictive accuracy of the categorisation was measured. RESULTS: Close concordance between the projections and the eventual incidence of dengue were observed. The average Matthew's correlation coefficient for a classification of the upper risk decile (operational capacity) is similar to the predictive performance at the optimal 30% cut-off. The quality of the spatial predictive algorithm as a classifier shows areas under the curve at all forecast windows being above 0.75 and above 0.80 within the next month. CONCLUSIONS: Spatially resolved forecasts of geographically structured diseases like dengue can be obtained at a neighbourhood level in highly urban environments at a precision that is suitable for guiding control efforts. The same method can be adapted to other urban and even rural areas, with appropriate adjustment to the grid size and shape.


Assuntos
Dengue/epidemiologia , Previsões/métodos , Humanos , Incidência , Singapura/epidemiologia
12.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 24(8): 1565-1568, 2018 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30016242

RESUMO

Dengue virus and Zika virus coexist in tropical regions in Asia where healthcare resources are limited; differentiating the 2 viruses is challenging. We showed in a case-control discovery cohort, and replicated in a validation cohort, that the diagnostic indices of conjunctivitis, platelet count, and monocyte count reliably distinguished between these viruses.

13.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 12(6): e0006587, 2018 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29912940

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Singapore experiences endemic dengue, with 2013 being the largest outbreak year known to date, culminating in 22,170 cases. Given the limited resources available, and that vector control is the key approach for prevention in Singapore, it is important that public health professionals know where resources should be invested in. This study aims to stratify the spatial risk of dengue transmission in Singapore for effective deployment of resources. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Random Forest was used to predict the risk rank of dengue transmission in 1km2 grids, with dengue, population, entomological and environmental data. The predicted risk ranks are categorized and mapped to four color-coded risk groups for easy operation application. The risk maps were evaluated with dengue case and cluster data. Risk maps produced by Random Forest have high accuracy. More than 80% of the observed risk ranks fell within the 80% prediction interval. The observed and predicted risk ranks were highly correlated ([Formula: see text]≥0.86, P <0.01). Furthermore, the predicted risk levels were in excellent agreement with case density, a weighted Kappa coefficient of more than 0.80 (P <0.01). Close to 90% of the dengue clusters occur in high risk areas, and the odds of cluster forming in high risk areas were higher than in low risk areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the potential of Random Forest and its strong predictive capability in stratifying the spatial risk of dengue transmission in Singapore. Dengue risk map produced using Random Forest has high accuracy, and is a good surveillance tool to guide vector control operations.


Assuntos
Aedes/virologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Modelos Estatísticos , Animais , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Dengue/transmissão , Dengue/virologia , Humanos , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Saúde Pública , Risco , Singapura/epidemiologia
14.
BMJ Glob Health ; 3(1): e000442, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29564154

RESUMO

Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) affects millions of children across Asia annually, leading to an increase in implemented control policies such as surveillance, isolation and social distancing in affected jurisdictions. However, limited knowledge of disease burden and severity causes difficulty in policy optimisation as the associated economic cost cannot be easily estimated. We use a data synthesis approach to provide a comprehensive picture of HFMD disease burden, estimating infection risk, symptomatic rates, the risk of complications and death, and overall disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) losses, along with associated uncertainties. Methods: Complementary data from a variety of sources were synthesised with mathematical models to obtain estimates of severity of HFMD. This includes serological and other data extracted through a systematic review of HFMD epidemiology previously published by the authors, and laboratory investigations and sentinel reports from Singapore's surveillance system. Results: HFMD is estimated to cause 96 900 (95% CI 40 600 to 259 000) age-weighted DALYs per annum in eight high-burden countries in East and Southeast Asia, with the majority of DALYs attributed to years of life lost. The symptomatic case hospitalisation rate of HFMD is 6% (2.8%-14.9%), of which 18.7% (6.7%-31.5%) are expected to develop complications. 5% (2.9%-7.4%) of such cases are fatal, bringing the overall case fatality ratio to be 52.3 (24.4-92.7) per 100 000 symptomatic infections. In contrast, the EV-A71 case fatality ratio is estimated to be at least 229.7 (75.4-672.1) per 100 000 symptomatic cases. Asymptomatic rate for EV-A71 is 71.4% (68.3%-74.3%) for ages 1-4, the years of greatest incidence. Conclusion: Despite the high incidence rate of HFMD, total DALY due to HFMD is limited in comparison to other endemic diseases in the region, such as dengue and upper respiratory tract infection. With the majority of DALY caused by years of life lost, it is possible to mitigate most with increased EV-A71 vaccine coverage.

15.
J Biomed Inform ; 81: 16-30, 2018 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29496631

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Accurate and timely prediction for endemic infectious diseases is vital for public health agencies to plan and carry out any control methods at an early stage of disease outbreaks. Climatic variables has been identified as important predictors in models for infectious disease forecasts. Various approaches have been proposed in the literature to produce accurate and timely predictions and potentially improve public health response. METHODS: We assessed how the machine learning LASSO method may be useful in providing useful forecasts for different pathogens in countries with different climates. Separate LASSO models were constructed for different disease/country/forecast window with different model complexity by including different sets of predictors to assess the importance of different predictors under various conditions. RESULTS: There was a more apparent cyclicity for both climatic variables and incidence in regions further away from the equator. For most diseases, predictions made beyond 4 weeks ahead were increasingly discrepant from the actual scenario. Prediction models were more accurate in capturing the outbreak but less sensitive to predict the outbreak size. In different situations, climatic variables have different levels of importance in prediction accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: For LASSO models used for prediction, including different sets of predictors has varying effect in different situations. Short term predictions generally perform better than longer term predictions, suggesting public health agencies may need the capacity to respond at short-notice to early warnings.

16.
Support Care Cancer ; 26(8): 2815-2824, 2018 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29511953

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Workability is of increasing importance especially in Asia given the increasing incidence rates and young age of onset of breast cancer. This study explores the determinants of employment and suboptimal workability. And evaluate the association between workability and patient-reported physical, psychological, and social outcomes. METHODS: In a hospital-based cross-sectional study, 327 breast cancer survivors, < 65 years of age and > 1 year post-diagnosis were recruited. Employed survivors filled out the workability index, which measures a person's capacity to meet work demands in relation to current health status. The EORTC-QLQ-C30, EORTC-QLQ-BR23, hospital anxiety and depression scale, multidimensional fatigue inventory, and brief pain index were administered. Fisher's exact test and Kruskal-Wallis test were used to test for associations of workability and employment status with demographic, clinical characteristics, and patient-reported outcomes. Linear models with standardised scores for patient-reported outcomes were fitted to study the associations of workability with patient-reported outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 327 survivors, < 65 years of age (working age), 140 (43%) were in full-time and 34 (10%) in part-time employment. Employed survivors were younger at time of diagnosis and at time of survey. Employment status was not associated with time since diagnosis, ethnicity, or clinical characteristics. Suboptimal workability was present in 37% of employed survivors of the working age, and more common in jobs that include physical work activities. Higher level of depression, financial difficulty and physical fatigue, more breast symptoms, and poorer global health status were independently associated with poorer workability. CONCLUSIONS: Lower employment and reduced workability in breast cancer survivors is common, and reduced workability is associated with higher levels of depression, financial difficulty and physical fatigue, more breast symptoms, and poorer global health status. Longitudinal research on psychosocial support with workability in Asia may find tailored approach to improve or maintain workability in employed breast cancer patients.

17.
BMJ Open ; 8(2): e017355, 2018 02 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29453294

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: When faced with an emergent epidemic with high mortality and morbidity potential, policy makers must decide what public health interventions to deploy at different stages of the outbreak. However, almost nothing is known about how the public view these interventions or how they trade off risks (of disease) with inconvenience (of interventions). In this paper, we aim to understand public perceptions on pandemic interventions, as well as to identify if there are any distinct respondent preference classes. DESIGN: A discrete choice experiment. SETTING: This study was fielded in Singapore between November 2012 and February 2013. PARTICIPANTS: A random sample of 500 Singapore residents aged 21 and over, including 271 women and 229 men, was analysed. OUTCOME MEASURES: Demographic information was collected from each participant. Participants were also shown a series of pairs of alternatives, each combining interventions and morbidity, mortality and cost outcomes and declared a preference for one combination. A random utility model was developed to determine the individual's preference for interventions and a hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to identify distinct respondent preference classes. RESULTS: On average, participants preferred more intense interventions, and preferred scenarios with fewer deaths and lower tax. The number of infections did not significantly influence respondents' responses. We identified two broad classes of respondents: those who were mortality averse and those who were expenditure averse. Education was found to be a predictor of group membership. CONCLUSION: Overall, there was considerable support for government interventions to prevent or mitigate outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, including those that greatly restricted individual liberties, as long as the restrictions showed a reasonable chance of reducing the adverse health effects of the outbreak.


Assuntos
Atitude Frente a Saúde , Comportamento de Escolha , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/prevenção & controle , Saúde Pública/métodos , Adulto , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/mortalidade , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Formulação de Políticas , Saúde Pública/economia , Opinião Pública , Medição de Risco/métodos , Singapura , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adulto Jovem
18.
Am J Epidemiol ; 187(1): 135-143, 2018 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29309522

RESUMO

Seasonal influenza epidemics occur year-round in the tropics, complicating the planning of vaccination programs. We built an individual-level longitudinal model of baseline antibody levels, time of infection, and the subsequent rise and decay of antibodies postinfection using influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 data from 2 sources in Singapore: 1) a noncommunity cohort with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed infections and at least 1 serological sample collected from each participant between May and October 2009 (n = 118) and 2) a community cohort with up to 6 serological samples collected between May 2009 and October 2010 (n = 760). The model was hierarchical, to account for interval censoring and interindividual variation. Model parameters were estimated via a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm using custom-designed R (https://www.r-project.org/) and C++ (https://isocpp.org/) code. After infection, antibody levels peaked at 4-7 weeks, with a half-life of 26.5 weeks, followed by a slower decrease up to 1 year to approximately preinfection levels. After the third wave, the seropositivity rate and the population-level antibody titer dropped to the same level as they were at the end of the first pandemic wave. The results of this analysis are consistent with the hypothesis that the population-level effect of individuals' waxing and waning antibodies influences influenza seasonality in the tropics.

19.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 24(1)2018 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29260679

RESUMO

In contrast with northern Australia and Thailand, in Singapore the incidence of melioidosis and co-incidence of melioidosis and pneumonia have declined. Burkholderia pseudomallei deep abscesses increased 20.4% during 2003-2014. These trends could not be explained by the environmental and climatic factors conventionally ascribed to melioidosis.


Assuntos
Burkholderia pseudomallei/isolamento & purificação , Melioidose/epidemiologia , Melioidose/microbiologia , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Clima , Meio Ambiente , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Singapura , Adulto Jovem
20.
Int J Infect Dis ; 67: 46-51, 2018 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29253709

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Between February 2012 and May 2016, six residents of an 11-storey apartment block were diagnosed with MDR-TB. Based on initial tests, all isolates had similar genotypic profiles, although there were no identifiable epidemiological transmission patterns between three cases. We present findings from the cluster investigation and results of a mass screening exercise. DESIGN: Free voluntary TB screening was offered to past and current residents of the apartment block, comprising an interview, Chest X-Ray, and Interferon Gamma Release Assay or Tuberculin skin test. Expected latent TB proportions were calculated using a reference population, and whole genome sequencing (WGS) was performed. RESULTS: The index case was involved in a separate gaming centre outbreak involving five patrons. 241 current (67.9% of 355 residents) and 18 past residents were screened. The latent TB proportion was 19.9%, which was at the higher end of the expected range. WGS confirmed relatedness of cases' MDR-TB isolates- eight of 10 isolates were genetically identical, while the remaining two were one Single Nucleotide Polymorphism apart. CONCLUSION: With WGS, TB clusters not apparent through regular activity-based contact tracing may be detected. Mass screening may help inform the extent of transmission, but is limited by participation and difficulties in interpretation.


Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Análise por Conglomerados , Feminino , Genótipo , Habitação , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genética , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Singapura/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/diagnóstico , Sequenciamento Completo do Genoma , Adulto Jovem
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