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Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34355622


Objective: To evaluate how Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) patients' mortality rates change, based on different levels of forced vital capacity (FVC) and disease duration, providing a scheme of mortality rates of a real population of ALS patients to improve the design of future RCTs. Methods: One random spirometry for each ALS patient was selected during four time intervals from disease onset: (1) ≤12 months; (2) ≤18 months; (3) ≤24 months; (4) ≤36 months. Date of spirometry corresponded to date of trial entry, while time interval onset-spirometry to disease duration at enrollment. Mortality rates from inclusion were computed at different time intervals. Based on progression rates, patients were stratified in slow, intermediate and fast progressors. Survival from recruitment was calculated depending on FVC, disease duration and progression rate. Results: We included 659 patients in group 1, 888 in group 2, 1019 in group 3 and 1102 in group 4. Mortality rates were higher in each group at reducing the FVC cutoff used for recruitment (p < 0.001). Median survival decreased when lowering FVC and disease duration cutoffs (p < 0.001); a higher median disease progression rate of included patients led to lower median survival from recruitment. The proportion of recruited fast progressors raised when shortening disease duration and lowering FVC cutoff. Conclusions: This is a simple model for setting eligibility criteria, based on mortality rates of patients depending on FVC and disease duration, to select the best population for RCTs, tailored to trials' primary endpoints and duration.

Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34151660


Objective: To assess amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) prevalence and to analyze how this estimate vary according to the historical depth of data collection. Methods: Data from the PARALS register have been used. Crude prevalence ratio was estimated on 31 December 2015 for the period 2015-2013 and then repeated extending the time interval by 3 years each time. For each time interval, prevalence ratio was calculated globally and stratified by sex, age at diagnosis, and phenotype. Prevalence was also calculated considering patients who underwent tracheostomy during the same study period. Results: Prevalence ratios increased proportionally to the length of the time period considered, ranging from 6 (95% CI 5.3-6.7) for a 3-year period to 12.1 (95% CI 11.1-13.1) per 100,000 population for a 21-year period. Prevalence ratio increase was inversely proportional to age at diagnosis, being null in the >85 years class and maximal in the 25-35 age class (+1700%). Among phenotypes, predominant UMN showed the highest increase (from 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.8, to 2.1, 95% CI 1.7 - 2.6, +320%). Discussion: Because of the variability of ALS survival, prevalence ratio strongly depends on the length of the follow-up period. A 12-year period should be sufficient to get a reliable estimate of ALS prevalence including long-survival patients.

JAMA Neurol ; 74(9): 1097-1104, 2017 09 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28692730


Importance: This study reports the long-term epidemiologic trends of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) based on a prospective register. Objective: To examine the 20-year epidemiologic trends of ALS in the Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta regions of Italy. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta Register for ALS (PARALS) is an epidemiologic prospective register that covers 2 Italian regions (population of 4 476 931 inhabitants according to the 2011 census) from January 1, 1995, through December 31, 2014. Case ascertainment is based on multiple sources (neurologic departments, hospital discharge archives, and mortality records). Incidence rates are age and sex standardized for the Italian population of the 2011 census. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was performed using a Poisson regression model. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary study outcomes were long-term incidence and prevalence rates of ALS using a prospective design and their determinants. Results: During the study period, a total of 2702 patients (mean [SD] age at onset, 65.7 [11.1] years; 1246 [46.1%] female and 1456 [53.9%] male) received a diagnosis of ALS between 1995 and 2014, corresponding to a crude annual incidence rate of 3.03 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 2.85-3.23) and an adjusted incidence rate of 2.78 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 2.57-2.96). The age-adjusted incidence rate increased in the 2 decades of the study (1995-2004: 2.66; 95% CI, 2.50-2.83; 2005-2014: 2.89; 95% CI, 2.71-3.07; P = .04), mostly in women. The adjusted rate ratio of men to women decreased from 1.27:1 (1995-2004) to 1.17:1 (2005-2014). The analysis of deviance for the APC regression models indicated that the drift variable is relevant in explaining the variation of ALS incidence rates over time in the overall population (change in deviance, 4.6553; P = .03) and in women (change in deviance, 3.8821; P = .05) but not in men (change in deviance, 0.77215; P = .38). A total of 479 patients with ALS were alive and had not undergone tracheostomy at the prevalence day (December 31, 2014), corresponding to a crude prevalence rate of 10.54 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 9.64-11.52). Conclusions and Relevance: During the 1995 to 2014 period, the crude and adjusted incidences of ALS increased in Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta, mostly in women. The APC model revealed that the increase of ALS incidence is attributable to a birth cohort effect in women, with a peak in the 1930 cohort. The different increase of ALS incidence in men and women points to an effect of exogenous factors with a differential effect on the 2 sexes, acting on a genetic background.

Esclerose Amiotrófica Lateral/epidemiologia , Sistema de Registros/estatística & dados numéricos , Idade de Início , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Itália/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores Sexuais
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28616937


OBJECTIVE: To assess the prognostic influence of pre-morbid type 2 diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension and cardiovascular (CV) risk profile on ALS phenotype and outcome in a population-based cohort of Italian patients. METHODS: A total of 650 ALS patients from the Piemonte/Valle d'Aosta Register for ALS, incident in the 2007-2011 period, were recruited. Information about premorbid presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension was collected at the time of diagnosis. Patients' CV risk profile was calculated according to the Joint British Societies' guidelines on prevention of cardiovascular disease in clinical practice (JBS2). RESULTS: At the univariate analysis, the presence of pre-morbid arterial hypertension was associated with a higher age at onset of ALS and a shorter survival, and patients with a high CV risk profile had a worse prognosis than those with a low CV risk profile. The Cox multivariable analysis did not confirm such findings. Type 2 diabetes mellitus did not modify either the phenotype or the prognosis of ALS patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study performed on a large population-based cohort of ALS patients has demonstrated that arterial hypertension, type 2 diabetes and CV risk factors, calculated using the Framingham equation, do not influence ALS phenotype and prognosis.

Esclerose Amiotrófica Lateral/mortalidade , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/mortalidade , Cardiopatias/mortalidade , Hipertensão/mortalidade , Sistema de Registros , Idade de Início , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Esclerose Amiotrófica Lateral/diagnóstico , Comorbidade , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/diagnóstico , Feminino , Cardiopatias/diagnóstico , Humanos , Hipertensão/diagnóstico , Itália/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Prognóstico , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Fatores de Risco , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Análise de Sobrevida , Taxa de Sobrevida
J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry ; 87(11): 1229-1233, 2016 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27656044


OBJECTIVE: To assess the prognostic influence of premorbid smoking habits and vascular risk profile on amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) phenotype and outcome in a population-based cohort of Italian patients. METHODS: A total of 650 patients with ALS from the Piemonte/Valle d'Aosta Register for ALS, incident in the 2007-2011 period, were recruited. Information about premorbid cigarette smoking habits and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were collected at the time of diagnosis. RESULTS: Current smokers had a significantly shorter median survival (1.9 years, IQR 1.2-3.4) compared with former (2.3 years, IQR 1.5-4.2) and never smokers (2.7 years, IQR 1.8-4.6) (p=0.001). Also COPD adversely influenced patients' prognosis. Both smoking habits and CODP were retained in Cox multivariable model. CONCLUSIONS: This study has demonstrated in a large population-based cohort of patients with ALS that cigarette smoking is an independent negative prognostic factor for survival, with a dose-response gradient. Its effect is not related to the presence of COPD or to respiratory status at time of diagnosis. The understanding of the mechanisms, either genetic or epigenetic, through which exogenous factors influence disease phenotype is of major importance towards a more focused approach to cure ALS.

Esclerose Amiotrófica Lateral/mortalidade , Fumar/efeitos adversos , Fumar/mortalidade , Atividades Cotidianas/classificação , Idade de Início , Idoso , Esclerose Amiotrófica Lateral/diagnóstico , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fenótipo , Prognóstico , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/complicações , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/mortalidade , Análise de Sobrevida
JAMA Neurol ; 71(9): 1134-42, 2014 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25048026


IMPORTANCE: There is an urgent need to identify reliable biomarkers of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) progression for clinical practice and pharmacological trials. OBJECTIVES: To correlate several hematological markers evaluated at diagnosis with ALS outcome in a population-based series of patients (discovery cohort) and replicate the findings in an independent validation cohort from an ALS tertiary center. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The discovery cohort included 712 patients with ALS from the Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta Register for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2011. The validation cohort comprised 122 patients with ALS at different stages of disease consecutively seen at an ALS tertiary center between January 1, 2007, and January 1, 2009. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The following hematological factors were investigated and correlated with survival: total leukocytes, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, glucose, creatinine, uric acid, albumin, bilirubin, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, creatine kinase, thyroid-stimulating hormones, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate; all analyses were performed separately by sex. The patient of the validation cohort also underwent bioelectrical impedance analysis for the calculation of fat-free mass. RESULT: Of the 712 patients in the examined period in Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta, 638 (89.6%) were included in the study. Only serum albumin (men: ≤ 4.3 vs >4.3 mg/dL, P < .001; women: ≤ 4.3 vs >4.3 mg/dL, P < .001) and creatinine levels (men: ≤ 0.82 vs >0.82 mg/dL, P = .004; women: ≤ 0.65 vs >0.05 mg/dL, P = .004) and lymphocyte count (men: ≤ 1700 vs >1700/µL, P = .04; women: ≤ 1700 vs >1700/µL, P = .02) were significantly associated with ALS outcome in both sexes with a dose-response effect (better survival with increasing levels). These findings were confirmed in the validation cohort. Multivariable analysis showed that serum albumin (men: hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.05-1.90; P = .02; women: HR, 1.73; 95 % CI, 1.35-2.39; P = .001) and creatinine (men: HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.11-1.95; P = .007; women: HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.07-2.05; P = .02) were independent predictors of survival in both sexes; no other hematological factor was retained in the model. In patients with ALS, serum albumin was correlated with markers of inflammatory state while serum creatinine was correlated with fat-free mass, which is a marker of muscle mass. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In ALS, serum albumin and creatinine are independent markers of outcome in both sexes. Creatinine reflects the muscle waste whereas albumin is connected with inflammatory state. Both creatinine and albumin are reliable markers of the severity of clinical status in patients with ALS and can be used in defining prognosis at the time of diagnosis.

Esclerose Amiotrófica Lateral/sangue , Creatinina/sangue , Albumina Sérica/análise , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Esclerose Amiotrófica Lateral/mortalidade , Esclerose Amiotrófica Lateral/patologia , Biomarcadores/sangue , Estudos de Coortes , Progressão da Doença , Feminino , Humanos , Itália , Contagem de Linfócitos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Avaliação de Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Prognóstico , Sensibilidade e Especificidade