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1.
Environ Int ; 132: 105064, 2019 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31419765

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Evidence remains equivocal regarding the association of inflammation, a precursor to cardiovascular disease, and acute exposures to ambient air pollution from traffic-related particulate matter. Though youth with type 1 diabetes are at higher risk for cardiovascular disease, the relationship of inflammation and ambient air pollution exposures in this population has received little attention. OBJECTIVES: Using five geographically diverse US sites from the racially- and ethnically-diverse SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Cohort, we examined the relationship of acute exposures to PM2.5 mass, Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling System (ADMS)-Roads traffic-related PM concentrations near roadways, and elemental carbon (EC) with biomarkers of inflammation including interleukin-6 (IL-6), c-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and fibrinogen. METHODS: Baseline questionnaires and blood were obtained at a study visit. Using a spatio-temporal modeling approach, pollutant exposures for 7 days prior to blood draw were assigned to residential addresses. Linear mixed models for each outcome and exposure were adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors identified a priori. RESULTS: Among the 2566 participants with complete data, fully-adjusted models showed positive associations of EC average week exposures with IL-6 and hs-CRP, and PM2.5 mass exposures on lag day 3 with IL-6 levels. Comparing the 25th and 75th percentiles of average week EC exposures resulted in 8.3% higher IL-6 (95%CI: 2.7%,14.3%) and 9.8% higher hs-CRP (95%CI: 2.4%,17.7%). We observed some evidence of effect modification for the relationships of PM2.5 mass exposures with hs-CRP by gender and with IL-6 by race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Indicators of inflammation were associated with estimated traffic-related air pollutant exposures in this study population of youth with type 1 diabetes. Thus youth with type 1 diabetes may be at increased risk of air pollution-related inflammation. These findings and the racial/ethnic and gender differences observed deserve further exploration.

2.
Am Heart J ; 216: 30-41, 2019 Jun 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31386936

RESUMO

In patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), guidelines recommend statins as first-line lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) with addition of nonstatin agents in those with persistently elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. METHODS: To estimate the cardiovascular (CV) risk reduction implications of treatment intensification, we used a previously reported simulation model with enhancements. An ASCVD cohort was developed from a US claims database. A Cox model was used to estimate baseline risk of CV events: myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, unstable angina hospitalization, elective coronary revascularization, or cardiovascular death. Patients were sampled with replacement (bootstrapping) and entered the simulation model, which applied stepwise LLT intensification logic, with a goal of achieving low-density lipoprotein cholesterol less than 70 mg/dL at each step. CV risk reduction assumptions were based on published data. Two treatment intensification scenarios were investigated: ideal and real-world (which accounted for statin intolerance, nonadherence, and payer restrictions). RESULTS: In a cohort of 1,000 patients with ASCVD, approximately 813 (809-818) would require treatment intensification with LLT under an ideal treatment intensification scenario. Before treatment intensification, 183 (179-187) events would be expected to occur over 5 years. With treatment intensification, 40 (34-45) of these events could be avoided. In a real-world scenario, about 818 (813-823) patients require treatment intensification with LLT, resulting in 29 (24-34) events avoided over 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Intensification of LLT in an ASCVD population translates into a substantial number of CV events avoided. This simulation-based model could assist in assessing the potential benefits of various types of population-level LLT interventions.

3.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 8(11): e012366, 2019 Jun 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31433717

RESUMO

Background Early rapid declines of kidney function may occur in patients with atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis with institution of medical therapy. The causes and consequences are not well understood. Methods and Results Patients enrolled in the medical therapy-only arm of the CORAL (Cardiovascular Outcomes With Renal Artery Lesions) study were assessed for a rapid decline (RD) in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), defined as a ≥30% decrease from baseline to either 3 months, 6 months, or both. In the medical therapy-only cohort, eGFR was available in 359 subjects at all time points, the subjects were followed for a median of 4.72 years, and 66 of 359 (18%) subjects experienced an early RD. Baseline log cystatin C (odds ratio, 1.78 [1.11-2.85]; P=0.02), age (odds ratio, 1.04 [1.00-1.07]; P<0.05), and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine eGFR (odds ratio, 1.86 [1.15-3.0]; P=0.01) were associated with an early RD. Despite continued medical therapy only, the RD group had an improvement in eGFR at 1 year (6.9%; P=0.04). The RD and nondecline groups were not significantly different for clinical events and all-cause mortality (P=0.78 and P=0.76, respectively). Similarly, renal replacement therapy occurred in 1 of 66 (1.5%) of the RD patients and in 6 of 294 (2%) of the nondecline patients. The regression to the mean of improvement in eGFR at 1 year in the RD group was estimated at 5.8±7.1%. Conclusions Early rapid declines in kidney function may occur in patients with renal artery stenosis when medical therapy is initiated, and their clinical outcomes are comparable to those without such a decline, when medical therapy only is continued.

4.
Ann Epidemiol ; 37: 37-42, 2019 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31383511

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Most surveillance efforts in childhood diabetes have focused on incidence, whereas prevalence is rarely reported. This study aimed to assess whether a mathematical illness-death model accurately estimated future prevalence from baseline prevalence and incidence rates in children. METHODS: SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth is an ongoing population-based surveillance study of prevalence and incidence of diabetes and its complications among youth in the United States. We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific SEARCH estimates of the prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in 2001 and incidence from 2002 to 2008. These data were used in a partial differential equation to estimate prevalence in 2009 with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Model-based prevalence was compared with the observed prevalence in 2009. RESULTS: Most confidence intervals for the difference between estimated and observed prevalence included zero, indicating no evidence for a difference between the two methods. The width of confidence intervals indicated high precision for the estimated prevalence when considering all races/ethnicities. In strata with few cases, precision was reduced. CONCLUSIONS: Future prevalence of type I and type II diabetes in youth may be accurately estimated from baseline prevalence and incidence. Diabetes surveillance could benefit from potential cost savings of this method.

6.
EBioMedicine ; 44: 209-224, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31160272

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Administration of amplitude modulated 27·12 MHz radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (AM RF EMF) by means of a spoon-shaped applicator placed on the patient's tongue is a newly approved treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The mechanism of action of tumour-specific AM RF EMF is largely unknown. METHODS: Whole body and organ-specific human dosimetry analyses were performed. Mice carrying human HCC xenografts were exposed to AM RF EMF using a small animal AM RF EMF exposure system replicating human dosimetry and exposure time. We performed histological analysis of tumours following exposure to AM RF EMF. Using an agnostic genomic approach, we characterized the mechanism of action of AM RF EMF. FINDINGS: Intrabuccal administration results in systemic delivery of athermal AM RF EMF from head to toe at levels lower than those generated by cell phones held close to the body. Tumour shrinkage results from differentiation of HCC cells into quiescent cells with spindle morphology. AM RF EMF targeted antiproliferative effects and cancer stem cell inhibiting effects are mediated by Ca2+ influx through Cav3·2 T-type voltage-gated calcium channels (CACNA1H) resulting in increased intracellular calcium concentration within HCC cells only. INTERPRETATION: Intrabuccally-administered AM RF EMF is a systemic therapy that selectively block the growth of HCC cells. AM RF EMF pronounced inhibitory effects on cancer stem cells may explain the exceptionally long responses observed in several patients with advanced HCC. FUND: Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Cancer Institute's Cancer Centre Support Grant award number P30CA012197 issued to the Wake Forest Baptist Comprehensive Cancer Centre (BP) and by funds from the Charles L. Spurr Professorship Fund (BP). DWG is supported by R01 AA016852 and P50 AA026117.

7.
Stat Med ; 38(20): 3817-3831, 2019 Sep 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31211443

RESUMO

When comparing performances of two risk prediction models, several metrics exist to quantify prognostic improvement, including the change in the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, the Integrated Discrimination Improvement, the Net Reclassification Index at event rate, the change in Standardized Net Benefit, the change in Brier score, and the change in scaled Brier score. We explore the behavior and interrelationships between these metrics under multivariate normality in nested and nonnested model comparisons. We demonstrate that, within the framework of linear discriminant analysis, all six statistics are functions of squared Mahalanobis distance, a robust metric that properly measures discrimination by quantifying the separation between the risk scores of events and nonevents. These relationships are important for overall interpretability and clinical usefulness. Through simulation, we demonstrate that the performance of the theoretical estimators under normality is comparable or superior to empirical estimation methods typically used by investigators. In particular, the theoretical estimators for the Net Reclassification Index and the change in Standardized Net Benefit exhibit less variability in their estimates as compared to their empirically estimated counterparts. Finally, we explore how these metrics behave with potentially nonnormal data by applying these methods in a practical example based on the sex-specific cardiovascular disease risk models from the Framingham Heart Study. Our findings aim to give greater insight into the behavior of these measures and the connections existing among them and to provide additional estimation methods with less variability for the Net Reclassification Index and the change in Standardized Net Benefit.

8.
EBioMedicine ; 44: 194-208, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31129098

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Brain metastases are a major cause of death in patients with metastatic breast cancer. While surgical resection and radiation therapy are effective treatment modalities, the majority of patients will succumb from disease progression. We have developed a novel therapy for brain metastases that delivers athermal radiofrequency electromagnetic fields that are amplitude-modulated at breast cancer specific frequencies (BCF). METHODS: 27.12 MHz amplitude-modulated BCF were administered to a patient with a breast cancer brain metastasis by placing a spoon-shaped antenna on the anterior part of the tongue for three one-hour treatments every day. In preclinical models, a BCF dose, equivalent to that delivered to the patient's brain, was administered to animals implanted with either brain metastasis patient derived xenografts (PDXs) or brain-tropic cell lines. We also examined the efficacy of combining radiation therapy with BCF treatment. Additionally, the mechanistic underpinnings associated with cancer inhibition was identified using an agnostic approach. FINDINGS: Animal studies demonstrated a significant decrease in growth and metastases of brain-tropic cell lines. Moreover, BCF treatment of PDXs established from patients with brain metastases showed strong suppression of their growth ability. Importantly, BCF treatment led to significant and durable regression of brain metastasis of a patient with triple negative breast cancer. The tumour inhibitory effect was mediated by Ca2+ influx in cancer cells through CACNA1H T-type voltage-gated calcium channels, which, acting as the cellular antenna for BCF, activated CAMKII/p38 MAPK signalling and inhibited cancer stem cells through suppression of ß-catenin/HMGA2 signalling. Furthermore, BCF treatment downregulated exosomal miR-1246 level, which in turn decreased angiogenesis in brain environment. Therefore, targeted growth inhibition of breast cancer metastases was achieved through CACNA1H. INTERPRETATION: We demonstrate that BCF, as a single agent or in combination with radiation, is a novel treatment approach to the treatment of brain metastases. This paradigm shifting modality warrants further clinical trials for this unmet medical need.

9.
Eur Radiol ; 29(11): 6140-6148, 2019 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31049733

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between directly measured density and morphology of coronary artery calcium (CAC) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, using computed tomography (CT). METHODS: Framingham Heart Study (FHS) participants with CAC in noncontrast cardiac CT (2002-2005) were included and followed until 2016. Participants with known CVD or uninterpretable CT scans were excluded. We assessed and correlated (Spearman) CAC density, CAC volume, and the number of calcified segments. Moreover, we counted morphology features including shape (cylindrical, spherical, semi-tubular, and spotty), location (bifurcation, facing pericardium, or facing myocardium), and boundary regularity. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, we associated all CAC characteristics with CVD events (CVD-death, myocardial infarction, stroke). RESULTS: Among 1330 included participants (57.8 ± 11.7 years; 63% male), 73 (5.5%) experienced CVD events in a median follow-up of 9.1 (7.8-10.1) years. CAC density correlated strongly with CAC volume (Spearman's ρ = 0.75; p < 0.001) and lower number of calcified segments (ρ = - 0.86; p < 0.001; controlled for CAC volume). In the survival analysis, CAC density was associated with CVD events independent of Framingham risk score (HR (per SD) = 2.09; 95%CI, 1.30-3.34; p = 0.002) but not after adjustment for CAC volume (p = 0.648). The extent of spherically shaped and pericardially sided calcifications was associated with fewer CVD events accounting for the number of calcified segments (HR (per count) = 0.55; 95%CI, 0.31-0.98; p = 0.042 and HR = 0.66; 95%CI, 0.45-0.98; p = 0.039, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Directly measured CAC density does not predict CVD events due to the strong correlation with CAC volume. The spherical shape and pericardial-sided location of CAC are associated with fewer CVD events and may represent morphological features related to stable coronary plaques. KEY POINTS: • Coronary calcium density may not be independently associated with cardiovascular events. • Coronary calcium density correlates strongly with calcium volume. • Spherical shape and pericardial-sided location of CAC are associated with fewer CVD events.

10.
J Am Coll Cardiol ; 73(17): 2135-2145, 2019 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31047001

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Concentrations of circulating apolipoproteins are strongly linked to risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative importance of the additional knowledge of apolipoprotein concentrations within specific lipoprotein species for CAD risk prediction is limited. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the performance of a high-density lipoprotein (HDL) apolipoproteomic score, based on targeted mass spectrometry of HDL-associated apolipoproteins, for the detection of angiographic CAD and outcomes. METHODS: HDL-associated apolipoprotein (apo) A-1, apoC-1, apoC-2, apoC-3, and apoC-4 were measured in 943 participants without prevalent myocardial infarction (MI) referred for coronary angiography in the CASABLANCA (Catheter Sampled Blood Archive in Cardiovascular Diseases) study. A composite HDL apolipoproteomic score (pCAD) was associated with likelihood of obstructive CAD (≥70% lesion in ≥1 vessel) and with incident cardiovascular outcomes over 4-year follow-up. RESULTS: There were 587 (62.2%) patients with coronary stenosis. The pCAD score was associated with the presence of obstructive CAD (odds ratio: 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14 to 1.69; p < 0.001), independently of conventional cardiovascular risk factors including circulating plasma apoA-1 and apoB. The C-index for pCAD was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.59 to 0.67) for the presence of obstructive CAD. Although pCAD was not associated with cardiovascular mortality among all individuals (hazard ratio: 1.24; 95% CI: 0.93 to 1.66; p = 0.15), there was evidence of association for individuals with obstructive CAD (hazard ratio: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.07 to 2.05; p = 0.019). CONCLUSIONS: An HDL apolipoproteomic score is associated with the presence of CAD, independent of circulating apoA-1 and apoB concentrations and other conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Among individuals with CAD, this score may be independently associated cardiovascular death. (The CASABLANCA Study: Catheter Sampled Blood Archive in Cardiovascular Diseases [CASABLANCA]; NCT00842868).

11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30869772

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Lack of consensus on how to diagnose sarcopenia has limited the ability to diagnose this condition and hindered drug development. The Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium (SDOC) was formed to develop evidence-based diagnostic cut-points for lean mass and/or muscle strength that identify people at increased risk of mobility disability. We describe here the proceedings of a meeting of SDOC and other experts to discuss strategic considerations in the development of evidence-based sarcopenia definition. METHODS: Presentations and panel discussions reviewed the usefulness of sarcopenia as a biomarker, the analytical approach used by SDOC to establish cut-points, preliminary findings, and provided strategic direction to develop an evidence-based definition of sarcopenia. RESULTS: The SDOC assembled data from 8 Epidemiologic Cohorts consisting of 18,831 participants; clinical populations from 10 randomized trials and observational studies; and 2 nationally representative cohorts. In preliminary assessments, grip strength or grip strength/body mass index (BMI) were identified as discriminators of risk for mobility disability (walking speed<0.8 m/sec), while DXA-derived lean mass measures were not good discriminators of mobility disability. Candidate definitions based on grip strength variables were associated with increased risk of mortality, falls, mobility disability and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) disability. The prevalence of low grip strength increased with age. The attendees recommended the establishment of an International Expert panel to review a series of position statements on sarcopenia definition that are informed by the findings of the SDOC analyses and synthesis of literature. CONCLUSIONS: International consensus on an evidence-based definition of sarcopenia is needed. Grip strength - absolute or adjusted for BMI - is an important discriminator of mobility disability and other endpoints. Additional research is needed to develop a predictive risk model that takes into account sarcopenia components as well as age, sex, and race, and comorbidities.

12.
Circ Heart Fail ; 12(3): e005234, 2019 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30871347

RESUMO

Background Anthracycline chemotherapeutics, such as doxorubicin, are used widely in the treatment of numerous malignancies. The primary dose-limiting adverse effect of anthracyclines is cardiotoxicity that often presents as heart failure due to dilated cardiomyopathy years after anthracycline exposure. Recent data from animal studies indicate that anthracyclines cause cardiac atrophy. The timing of onset and underlying mechanisms are not well defined, and the relevance of these findings to human disease is unclear. Methods and Results Wild-type mice were sacrificed 1 week after intraperitoneal administration of doxorubicin (1-25 mg/kg), revealing a dose-dependent decrease in cardiac mass ( R2=0.64; P<0.0001) and a significant decrease in cardiomyocyte cross-sectional area (336±29 versus 188±14 µm2; P<0.0001). Myocardial tissue analysis identified a dose-dependent upregulation of the ubiquitin ligase, MuRF1 (muscle ring finger-1; R2=0.91; P=0.003) and a molecular profile of muscle atrophy. To investigate the determinants of doxorubicin-induced cardiac atrophy, we administered doxorubicin 20 mg/kg to mice lacking MuRF1 (MuRF1-/-) and wild-type littermates. MuRF1-/- mice were protected from cardiac atrophy and exhibited no reduction in contractile function. To explore the clinical relevance of these findings, we analyzed cardiac magnetic resonance imaging data from 70 patients in the DETECT-1 cohort and found that anthracycline exposure was associated with decreased cardiac mass evident within 1 month and persisting to 6 months after initiation. Conclusions Doxorubicin causes a subacute decrease in cardiac mass in both mice and humans. In mice, doxorubicin-induced cardiac atrophy is dependent on MuRF1. These findings suggest that therapies directed at preventing or reversing cardiac atrophy might preserve the cardiac function of cancer patients receiving anthracyclines.

14.
Clin Pharmacol Ther ; 105(4): 857-866, 2019 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30610746

RESUMO

Efficacy trials, designed to gain regulatory marketing approval, evaluate drugs in optimally selected patients under advantageous conditions for relatively short time periods. Effectiveness trials, designed to evaluate use in usual practice, assess treatments among more typical patients in real-world conditions with longer follow-up periods. In "efficacy-to-effectiveness (E2E) trials," if the initial efficacy trial component is positive, the trial seamlessly transitions to an effectiveness trial component to efficiently yield both types of evidence. Yet more time could be saved by simultaneously addressing efficacy and effectiveness in an "efficacy and effectiveness too (EE2) trial." Additionally, hybrids of the E2E and EE2 approaches with differing degrees of overlap of the two components could allow flexibility for specific drug development needs. In planning EE2 trials, each stakeholder's current and future needs, incentives, and perspective must be considered. Although challenging, the ultimate benefits to stakeholders, the health system, and the public should justify this effort.

15.
Am Heart J ; 209: 36-46, 2019 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30641399

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Kidney injury is common in patients with cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVES: We determined whether blood measurement of kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), would predict kidney outcomes in patients undergoing angiographic procedures for various indications. METHODS: One thousand two hundred eight patients undergoing coronary and/or peripheral angiography were prospectively enrolled; blood was collected for KIM-1 measurement. Peri-procedural acute kidney injury (AKI) was defined as AKI within 48 hours of contrast exposure. Non-procedural AKI was defined as AKI beyond 48 hours. Development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as progression to an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 milliliters/minute/1.73 m2 by study conclusion. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of non-procedural AKI, while univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate peri-procedural AKI and predictors of progression to CKD. RESULTS: During mean follow up of 4 years, peri-procedural AKI occurred in 5.0%, non-procedural AKI in 27.3%, and 12.4% developed new reduction in eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Higher KIM-1 concentrations were associated with prevalent comorbidities associated with risk in cardiovascular disease and worse left ventricular function. In adjusted analyses, elevated pre- and post-procedural KIM-1 concentrations predicted not only peri-procedural AKI (odds ratio [OR] 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-2·18, P = .01 and OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.10-2.15, P = .01, respectively) and non-procedural AKI (hazard ratio [HR] 1·49, 95% CI 1·24-1·78, P < .001 and HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.23-1.74, P < .001, respectively), but also progression to CKD (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.32-2.99, P = .001 and OR 2·02, 95% CI 1·35-3·03, P = .001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In a typical at-risk population undergoing coronary and/or peripheral angiography, blood concentrations of KIM-1 may predict incident peri-procedural and non-procedural AKI, as well as progression to CKD.

16.
Circulation ; 139(13): 1603-1611, 2019 Mar 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30586759

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: To optimize preventive strategies for coronary heart disease (CHD), it is essential to understand and appropriately quantify the contribution of its key risk factors. Our objective was to compare the associations of key modifiable CHD risk factors-specifically lipids, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes mellitus, and smoking-with incident CHD events based on their prognostic performance, attributable risk fractions, and treatment benefits, overall and by age. METHODS: Pooled participant-level data from 4 observational cohort studies sponsored by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute were used to create a cohort of 22 626 individuals aged 45 to 84 years who were initially free of cardiovascular disease. Individuals were followed for 10 years from baseline evaluation for incident CHD. Proportional hazards regression was used to estimate metrics of prognostic model performance (likelihood ratio, C index, net reclassification, discrimination slope), hazard ratios, and population attributable fractions for SBP, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), diabetes mellitus, and smoking. Expected absolute risk reductions for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment were assessed. RESULTS: Age, sex, and race capture 63% to 80% of the prognostic performance of cardiovascular risk models. In contrast, adding either SBP, non-HDL-C, diabetes mellitus, or smoking to a model with other risk factors increases the C index by only 0.004 to 0.013. However, primordial prevention could have a substantial effect as demonstrated by population attributable fractions of 28% for SBP≥130 mm Hg and 17% for non-HDL-C≥130 mg/dL. Similarly, lowering the SBP of all individuals to <130 mm Hg or lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 30% would be expected to lower a baseline 10-year CHD risk of 10.7% to 7.0 and 8.0, respectively (absolute risk reductions: 3.7% and 2.7%, respectively). Prognostic performance decreases with age (C indices for age groups 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84 are 0.75, 0.72, 0.66, and 0.62, respectively), whereas absolute risk reductions increase (SBP: 1.1%, 2.3%, 5.4%, 10.3%, respectively; non-HDL-C: 1.1%, 2.0%, 3.7%, 5.9%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Although individual modifiable CHD risk factors contribute only modestly to prognostic performance, our models indicate that eliminating or controlling these individual factors would lead to substantial reductions in total population CHD events. Metrics used to judge importance of risk factors should be tailored to the research objectives.

17.
Clin Neurol Neurosurg ; 176: 10-14, 2018 Nov 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30468997

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the driving factors for increased cost of brain metastasis management when using upfront stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). PATIENT AND METHODS: 737 patients treated with upfront SRS without whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). Patients were evaluated for use of craniotomy, length of hospital stay, need for rehabilitation or facility placement, and use of salvage SRS or salvage WBRT. Costs of care of these interventions were estimated based on 2013 Medicare reimbursements. Multiple linear regression was performed to determine factors that predicted for higher cost of treatment per month of life, as well as highest cumulative cost of care for brain metastasis. RESULTS: Mean cost of brain metastasis management per patient was $42,658, and $4673 per month of life. Upfront SRS represented the greatest contributor of total cost of brain metastasis management over a lifetime (49%), followed by use of any salvage SRS (21%), use of initial surgery (14%), use of salvage surgery (10%), hospitalization (3%) and cost of salvage WBRT (3%). Multiple linear regression identified brain metastasis velocity (BMV) (p < 0.001), use of cavity-directed SRS (<0.001), and CNS symptoms at time of presentation (p = 0.005) as factors that increased costs of care per month of survival. Use of salvage WBRT decreased per month cost of care in patients requiring salvage (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The cost of upfront SRS is the greatest contributor to cost of brain metastasis management when using upfront SRS. Higher BMV, progressive systemic disease and presence of symptoms are associated with increased cost of care.

18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30409691

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: One in three adolescents and young adults with type 1 diabetes have at least one early diabetes-related complication or comorbidity. We aimed to examine the prevalence and pattern of co-occurring complications in this population, as well as the related risk factors. METHODS: This observational cohort study includes data from individuals diagnosed with type 1 diabetes before age 20 years who participated in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study across five sites in the USA. We assessed sociodemographic and metabolic risk factors at baseline and at follow-up, and diabetes complications at follow-up. A frequency analysis was done to examine the difference in observed versus expected prevalence (calculated using a contingency table assuming independence across cells) of co-occurring complications or comorbidities. A cluster analysis was done to identify unique clusters of participants based on demographic characteristics and metabolic risk factors. FINDINGS: 1327 participants who completed the follow-up visit were included in the frequency analysis. The mean age was 10·1 (SD 3·9) years at the time of type 1 diabetes diagnosis and 18·0 (4·1) years at follow-up. At a mean diabetes duration of 7·8 [SD 1·9] years, co-occurrence of any two or more complications was observed in 78 (5·9%) participants, more frequently than expected by chance alone (58 [4·4%], p=0·015). Specifically, the complications that co-occurred more frequently than expected were retinopathy and diabetic kidney disease (11 [0·8%] vs three [0·2%]; p=0·0007), retinopathy and arterial stiffness (13 [1·0%] vs four [0·3%]; p=0·0016), and arterial stiffness and cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy (24 [1·8%] vs 13 [1·0%]; p=0·015). We identified four unique clusters characterised by progressively worsening metabolic risk factor profiles (longer duration of diabetes and higher glycated haemoglobin, non-HDL cholesterol, and waist-to-height ratio). The prevalence of at least two complications increased across the clusters (six [2·3%] of 261 in the low-risk cluster, 32 [6·3%] of 509 in the moderate-risk cluster, 28 [8%] of 348 in the high-risk cluster, and five [20·8%] of 24 in the highest-risk cluster). Compared with the low-risk and moderate-risk clusters, the high-risk and highest-risk clusters were characterised by a lower proportion of participants who were non-Hispanic white, and a higher proportion of participants who had a household income below US$50 000 and did not have private health insurance. INTERPRETATION: Early complications co-occur in adolescents and young adults with type 1 diabetes more frequently than expected. Identification of individuals with adverse risk factors could enable targeted behavioural or medical interventions that reduce the likelihood of early development of lifelong diabetes-related morbidity. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US National Institutes of Health.

19.
JACC Heart Fail ; 6(12): 1023-1032, 2018 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30414819

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine the prevalence of American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Foundation (AHA/ACCF) heart failure (HF) stages after potentially cardiotoxic chemotherapy was initiated. BACKGROUND: For individuals receiving potentially cardiotoxic chemotherapy, the frequency of transitioning from Stage A to more advanced HF stages is not well described. METHODS: In 143 Stage A HF patients with breast cancer, lymphoma and leukemia, renal cell carcinoma, or sarcoma prior to and then at 3, 6, and 12 to 24 months after potentially cardiotoxic chemotherapy was initiated, we obtained blinded cardiac magnetic resonance measurements of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). RESULTS: Three months after potentially cardiotoxic chemotherapy was initiated, 18.9% of patients transitioned from Stage A to Stage B HF. A total of 83% and 80% of patients with Stage A HF at 3 months, respectively, exhibited Stage A HF at 6 and 12 to 24 months; 68% and 56% of those with Stage B HF at 3 months, respectively, exhibited Stage B HF at 6 and 12 to 24 months (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.026, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Transitioning from Stage A to Stage B or remaining in Stage A HF 3 months after potentially cardiotoxic chemotherapy was initiated relates to longer-term (6 to 24 months post-treatment) assessments of HF stage.

20.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 7(16): e009217, 2018 Aug 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30369323

RESUMO

Background In patients with vascular disease, risk models may support decision making on novel risk reducing interventions, such as proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors or anti-inflammatory agents. We developed and validated an innovative model to estimate life expectancy without recurrent cardiovascular events for individuals with coronary, cerebrovascular, and/or peripheral artery disease that enables estimation of preventive treatment effect in lifetime gained. Methods and Results Study participants originated from prospective cohort studies: the SMART (Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease) cohort and REACH (Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health) cohorts of 14 259 ( REACH Western Europe), 19 170 ( REACH North America) and 6959 ( SMART , The Netherlands) patients with cardiovascular disease. The SMART-REACH model to estimate life expectancy without recurrent events was developed in REACH Western Europe as a Fine and Gray competing risk model incorporating cardiovascular risk factors. Validation was performed in REACH North America and SMART . Outcomes were (1) cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular death) and (2) noncardiovascular death. Predictors were sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, creatinine, number of cardiovascular disease locations, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure. Calibration plots showed high agreement between estimated and observed prognosis in SMART and REACH North America. C-statistics were 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.70) in SMART and 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.68) in REACH North America. Performance of the SMART-REACH model was better compared with existing risk scores and adds the possibility of estimating lifetime gained by novel therapies. Conclusions The externally validated SMART-REACH model could be used for estimation of anticipated improvements in life expectancy without recurrent cardiovascular events in individual patients with cardiovascular disease in Western Europe and North America.

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