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Surgery ; 170(3): 797-805, 2021 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33926706


BACKGROUND: The radiographic finding of pneumatosis intestinalis can indicate a spectrum of underlying processes ranging from a benign finding to a life-threatening condition. Although radiographic pneumatosis intestinalis is relatively common, there is no validated clinical tool to guide surgical management. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort of 300 pneumatosis intestinalis cases from a single institution, we developed 3 machine learning models for 2 clinical tasks: (1) the distinction of benign from pathologic pneumatosis intestinalis cases and (2) the determination of patients who would benefit from an operation. The 3 models are (1) an imaging model based on radiomic features extracted from computed tomography scans, (2) a clinical model based on clinical variables, and (3) a combination model using both the imaging and clinical variables. RESULTS: The combination model achieves an area under the curve of 0.91 (confidence interval: 0.87-0.94) for task I and an area under the curve of 0.84 (confidence interval: 0.79-0.88) for task II. The combination model significantly (P < .05) outperforms the imaging model and the clinical model for both tasks. The imaging model achieves an area under the curve of 0.72 (confidence interval: 0.57-0.87) for task I and 0.68 (confidence interval: 0.61-0.74) for task II. The clinical model achieves an area under the curve of 0.87 (confidence interval: 0.83-0.91) for task I and 0.76 (confidence interval: 0.70-0.81) for task II. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that combined radiographic and clinical features can identify pathologic pneumatosis intestinalis and aid in patient selection for surgery. This tool may better inform the surgical decision-making process for patients with pneumatosis intestinalis.

Aprendizado de Máquina , Pneumatose Cistoide Intestinal/diagnóstico , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Estatísticos , Pneumatose Cistoide Intestinal/diagnóstico por imagem , Pneumatose Cistoide Intestinal/patologia , Pneumatose Cistoide Intestinal/cirurgia , Curva ROC , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Estudos Retrospectivos , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X
J Surg Res ; 261: 58-66, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33418322


BACKGROUND: Surgical risk calculators (SRCs) have been developed for estimation of postoperative complications but do not directly inform decision-making. Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a method for evaluating prediction models, measuring their utility in guiding decisions. We aimed to analyze the utility of SRCs to guide both preoperative and postoperative management of patients undergoing hepatopancreaticobiliary surgery by using DCA. METHODS: A single-institution, retrospective review of patients undergoing hepatopancreaticobiliary operations between 2015 and 2017 was performed. Estimation of postoperative complications was conducted using the American College of Surgeons SRC [ACS-SRC] and the Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk (POTTER) calculator; risks were compared with observed outcomes. DCA was used to model optimal patient selection for risk prevention strategies and to compare the relative performance of the ACS-SRC and POTTER calculators. RESULTS: A total of 994 patients were included in the analysis. C-statistics for the ACS-SRC prediction of 12 postoperative complications ranged from 0.546 to 0.782. DCA revealed that an ACS-SRC-guided readmission prevention intervention, when compared with an all-or-none approach, yielded a superior net benefit for patients with estimated risk between 5% and 20%. Comparison of SRCs for venous thromboembolism intervention demonstrated superiority of the ACS-SRC for thresholds for intervention between 2% and 4% with the POTTER calculator performing superiorly between 4% and 8% estimated risk. CONCLUSIONS: SRCs can be used not only to predict complication risk but also to guide risk prevention strategies. This methodology should be incorporated into external validations of future risk calculators and can be applied for institution-specific quality improvement initiatives to improve patient outcomes.

Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos do Sistema Digestório/estatística & dados numéricos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos do Sistema Digestório/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pennsylvania/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco
J Am Coll Surg ; 231(5): 536-545.e4, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32822886


BACKGROUND: Incisional hernia develops in up to 20% of patients undergoing abdominal operations. We sought to identify characteristics associated with poor outcomes after acute incisional hernia incarceration. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with incisional hernias undergoing elective repair or with acute incarceration between 2010 and 2017. The primary end point was 30-day mortality. Logistic regression was used to determine adjusted odds associated with 30-day mortality. The American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator was used to estimate outcomes had these patients undergone elective repair. RESULTS: A total of 483 patients experienced acute incarceration; 30-day mortality was 9.52%. Increasing age (adjusted odds ratio 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.08) and bowel resection (adjusted odds ratio 3.18; 95% CI, 1.45 to 6.95) were associated with mortality. Among those with acute incarceration, 231 patients (47.9%) had no documentation of an earlier surgical evaluation and 252 (52.2%) had been evaluated but had not undergone elective repair. Among patients 80 years and older, 30-day mortality after emergent repair was high (22.9%) compared with estimated 30-day mortality for elective repair (0.73%), based on the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator. Estimated mortality was comparable with observed elective repair mortality (0.82%) in an age-matched cohort. Similar mortality trends were noted for patients younger than 60 years and aged 60 to 79 years. CONCLUSIONS: Comparison of predicted elective repair and observed emergent repair mortality in patients with acute incarceration suggests that acceptable outcomes could have been achieved with elective repair. Almost one-half of acute incarceration patients had no earlier surgical evaluation, therefore, targeted interventions to address surgical referral can potentially result in fewer incarceration-related deaths.

Abdome/cirurgia , Herniorrafia , Hérnia Incisional/mortalidade , Hérnia Incisional/cirurgia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/mortalidade , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/cirurgia , Doença Aguda , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Taxa de Sobrevida