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1.
Circulation ; 140(10): 831-835, 2019 Sep 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31479321
2.
Elife ; 82019 Sep 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31526476

RESUMO

Intelligence and education are predictive of better physical and mental health, socioeconomic position (SEP), and longevity. However, these associations are insufficient to prove that intelligence and/or education cause these outcomes. Intelligence and education are phenotypically and genetically correlated, which makes it difficult to elucidate causal relationships. We used univariate and multivariable Mendelian randomization to estimate the total and direct effects of intelligence and educational attainment on mental and physical health, measures of socioeconomic position, and longevity. Both intelligence and education had beneficial total effects. Higher intelligence had positive direct effects on income and alcohol consumption, and negative direct effects on moderate and vigorous physical activity. Higher educational attainment had positive direct effects on income, alcohol consumption, and vigorous physical activity, and negative direct effects on smoking, BMI and sedentary behaviour. If the Mendelian randomization assumptions hold, these findings suggest that both intelligence and education affect health.

3.
Int J Epidemiol ; 2019 Sep 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31549173

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation changes in peripheral blood have recently been identified in relation to lung cancer risk. Some of these changes have been suggested to mediate part of the effect of smoking on lung cancer. However, limitations with conventional mediation analyses mean that the causal nature of these methylation changes has yet to be fully elucidated. METHODS: We first performed a meta-analysis of four epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of lung cancer (918 cases, 918 controls). Next, we conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis, using genetic instruments for methylation at CpG sites identified in the EWAS meta-analysis, and 29 863 cases and 55 586 controls from the TRICL-ILCCO lung cancer consortium, to appraise the possible causal role of methylation at these sites on lung cancer. RESULTS: Sixteen CpG sites were identified from the EWAS meta-analysis [false discovery rate (FDR) < 0.05], for 14 of which we could identify genetic instruments. Mendelian randomization provided little evidence that DNA methylation in peripheral blood at the 14 CpG sites plays a causal role in lung cancer development (FDR > 0.05), including for cg05575921-AHRR where methylation is strongly associated with both smoke exposure and lung cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS: The results contrast with previous observational and mediation analysis, which have made strong claims regarding the causal role of DNA methylation. Thus, previous suggestions of a mediating role of methylation at sites identified in peripheral blood, such as cg05575921-AHRR, could be unfounded. However, this study does not preclude the possibility that differential DNA methylation at other sites is causally involved in lung cancer development, especially within lung tissue.

4.
J Bone Miner Res ; 2019 Sep 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31525280

RESUMO

Novel anabolic drug targets are needed to treat osteoporosis. Having established a large national cohort with unexplained high bone mass (HBM), we aimed to identify a novel monogenic cause of HBM and provide insight into a regulatory pathway potentially amenable to therapeutic intervention. We investigated a pedigree with unexplained HBM in whom previous sequencing had excluded known causes of monogenic HBM. Whole exome sequencing identified a rare (minor allele frequency 0.0023), highly evolutionarily conserved, missense mutation in SMAD9 (c.65T>C, p.Leu22Pro) segregating with HBM in this autosomal dominant family. The same mutation was identified in another two unrelated individuals both with HBM. In-silico protein modelling predicts the mutation severely disrupts the MH1 DNA-binding domain of SMAD9. Affected individuals have bone mineral density [BMD] Z-Scores +3 to +5, mandible enlargement, a broad frame, torus palatinus/ mandibularis, pes planus, increased shoe size and a tendency to sink when swimming. Peripheral quantitative computer tomography (pQCT) measurement demonstrates increased trabecular volumetric BMD and increased cortical thickness conferring greater predicted bone strength; bone turnover markers are low/normal. Notably, fractures and nerve compression are not seen. Both genome-wide, and gene-based association testing involving estimated-BMD measured at the heel in 362,924 white British subjects from the UK Biobank Study showed strong associations with SMAD9 (PGWAS = 6 x 10-16 ; PGENE = 8 × 10-17 ). Furthermore, we found Smad9 to be highly expressed in both murine cortical bone derived osteocytes and skeletal elements of zebrafish larvae. Our findings support SMAD9 as a novel HBM gene, and a potential novel osteoanabolic target for osteoporosis therapeutics. SMAD9 is thought to inhibit bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) dependent target gene transcription to reduce osteoblast activity. Thus, we hypothesise SMAD9 c.65T>C is a loss-of-function mutation reducing BMP inhibition. Lowering SMAD9 as a potential novel anabolic mechanism for osteoporosis therapeutics warrants further investigation.

6.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 3346, 2019 Aug 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31431621

RESUMO

Predicting longer-term mortality risk requires collection of clinical data, which is often cumbersome. Therefore, we use a well-standardized metabolomics platform to identify metabolic predictors of long-term mortality in the circulation of 44,168 individuals (age at baseline 18-109), of whom 5512 died during follow-up. We apply a stepwise (forward-backward) procedure based on meta-analysis results and identify 14 circulating biomarkers independently associating with all-cause mortality. Overall, these associations are similar in men and women and across different age strata. We subsequently show that the prediction accuracy of 5- and 10-year mortality based on a model containing the identified biomarkers and sex (C-statistic = 0.837 and 0.830, respectively) is better than that of a model containing conventional risk factors for mortality (C-statistic = 0.772 and 0.790, respectively). The use of the identified metabolic profile as a predictor of mortality or surrogate endpoint in clinical studies needs further investigation.

7.
Hum Genet ; 2019 Jul 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31363835

RESUMO

In the original article publication, there is an incorrect impression that Fig. 1 formed a formal Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) by describing it as a causal model. However, it was not correct if interpreted in this way.

8.
PLoS Med ; 16(8): e1002893, 2019 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31390370

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Various risk factors have been associated with epithelial ovarian cancer risk in observational epidemiological studies. However, the causal nature of the risk factors reported, and thus their suitability as effective intervention targets, is unclear given the susceptibility of conventional observational designs to residual confounding and reverse causation. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses genetic variants as proxies for risk factors to strengthen causal inference in observational studies. We used MR to evaluate the association of 12 previously reported risk factors (reproductive, anthropometric, clinical, lifestyle, and molecular factors) with risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, invasive epithelial ovarian cancer histotypes, and low malignant potential tumours. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Genetic instruments to proxy 12 risk factors were constructed by identifying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were robustly (P < 5 × 10-8) and independently associated with each respective risk factor in previously reported genome-wide association studies. These risk factors included genetic liability to 3 factors (endometriosis, polycystic ovary syndrome, type 2 diabetes) scaled to reflect a 50% higher odds liability to disease. We obtained summary statistics for the association of these SNPs with risk of overall and histotype-specific invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (22,406 cases; 40,941 controls) and low malignant potential tumours (3,103 cases; 40,941 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). The OCAC dataset comprises 63 genotyping project/case-control sets with participants of European ancestry recruited from 14 countries (US, Australia, Belarus, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Canada, Poland, UK, Spain, Netherlands, and Sweden). SNPs were combined into multi-allelic inverse-variance-weighted fixed or random effects models to generate effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Three complementary sensitivity analyses were performed to examine violations of MR assumptions: MR-Egger regression and weighted median and mode estimators. A Bonferroni-corrected P value threshold was used to establish strong evidence (P < 0.0042) and suggestive evidence (0.0042 < P < 0.05) for associations. In MR analyses, there was strong or suggestive evidence that 2 of the 12 risk factors were associated with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 8 of the 12 were associated with 1 or more invasive epithelial ovarian cancer histotypes. There was strong evidence that genetic liability to endometriosis was associated with an increased risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (odds ratio [OR] per 50% higher odds liability: 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.15; P = 6.94 × 10-7) and suggestive evidence that lifetime smoking exposure was associated with an increased risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (OR per unit increase in smoking score: 1.36, 95% CI 1.04-1.78; P = 0.02). In analyses examining histotypes and low malignant potential tumours, the strongest associations found were between height and clear cell carcinoma (OR per SD increase: 1.36, 95% CI 1.15-1.61; P = 0.0003); age at natural menopause and endometrioid carcinoma (OR per year later onset: 1.09, 95% CI 1.02-1.16; P = 0.007); and genetic liability to polycystic ovary syndrome and endometrioid carcinoma (OR per 50% higher odds liability: 0.89, 95% CI 0.82-0.96; P = 0.002). There was little evidence for an association of genetic liability to type 2 diabetes, parity, or circulating levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and sex hormone binding globulin with ovarian cancer or its subtypes. The primary limitations of this analysis include the modest statistical power for analyses of risk factors in relation to some less common ovarian cancer histotypes (low grade serous, mucinous, and clear cell carcinomas), the inability to directly examine the association of some ovarian cancer risk factors that did not have robust genetic variants available to serve as proxies (e.g., oral contraceptive use, hormone replacement therapy), and the assumption of linear relationships between risk factors and ovarian cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our comprehensive examination of possible aetiological drivers of ovarian carcinogenesis using germline genetic variants to proxy risk factors supports a role for few of these factors in invasive epithelial ovarian cancer overall and suggests distinct aetiologies across histotypes. The identification of novel risk factors remains an important priority for the prevention of epithelial ovarian cancer.

9.
PLoS Med ; 16(8): e1002868, 2019 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31398184

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: High body mass index (BMI) is associated with mortality, but the pervasive problem of confounding and reverse causality in observational studies limits inference about the direction and magnitude of causal effects. We aimed to obtain estimates of the causal association of BMI with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a record-linked, intergenerational prospective study from the general population of Sweden, we used two-sample instrumental variable (IV) analysis with data from 996,898 fathers (282,407 deaths) and 1,013,083 mothers (153,043 deaths) and their sons followed up from January 1, 1961, until December 31, 2004. Sons' BMI was used as the instrument for parents' BMI to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for risk of mortality per standard deviation (SD) higher parents' BMI. Using offspring exposure as an instrument for parents' exposure is unlikely to be affected by reverse causality (an important source of bias in this context) and reduces confounding. IV analyses supported causal associations between higher BMI and greater risk of all-cause mortality (HR [95% confidence interval (CI)] per SD higher fathers' BMI: 1.29 [1.26-1.31] and mothers' BMI: 1.39 [1.35-1.42]) and overall cancer mortality (HR per SD higher fathers' BMI: 1.20 [1.16-1.24] and mothers' BMI: 1.29 [1.24-1.34]), including 9 site-specific cancers in men (bladder, colorectum, gallbladder, kidney, liver, lung, lymphatic system, pancreas, and stomach) and 11 site-specific cancers in women (gallbladder, kidney, liver, lung, lymphatic system, ovaries, pancreas, stomach, uterus, cervix, and endometrium). There was evidence supporting causal associations between higher BMI in mothers and greater risk of mortality from kidney disease (HR: 2.17 [1.68-2.81]) and lower risk of mortality from suicide (HR: 0.77 [0.65-0.90]). In both sexes, there was evidence supporting causal associations between higher BMI and mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), stroke, diabetes, and respiratory diseases. We were unable to test the association between sons' and mothers' BMIs (as mothers' data were unavailable) or whether the instrument was independent of unmeasured or residual confounding; however, the associations between parents' mortality and sons' BMI were negligibly influenced by adjustment for available confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with previous large-scale meta-analyses and reviews, results supported the causal role of higher BMI in increasing the risk of several common causes of death, including cancers with increasing global incidence. We also found positive effects of BMI on mortality from respiratory disease, prostate cancer, and lung cancer, which has been inconsistently reported in the literature, suggesting that the causal role of higher BMI in mortality from these diseases may be underestimated. Furthermore, we expect different patterns of bias in the current observational and IV analyses; therefore, the similarities between our findings from both methods increases confidence in the results. These findings support efforts to understand the mechanisms underpinning these effects to inform targeted interventions and develop population-based strategies to reduce rising obesity levels for disease prevention.

11.
Int J Epidemiol ; 2019 Jul 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31325357

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: A link between suboptimal fetal growth and higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well documented. It has been difficult to assess the contribution of environmental versus genetic factors to the association, as these factors are closely connected in nuclear families. We investigated the association between offspring birthweight and CVD mortality in parents, aunts and uncles, and examined whether these associations are explained by CVD risk factors. METHODS: We linked Norwegian data from the Medical Birth Registry, the Cause of Death Registry and cardiovascular surveys. A total of 1 353 956 births (1967-2012) were linked to parents and one maternal and one paternal aunt/uncle. Offspring birthweight and CVD mortality association among all relationships was assessed by hazard ratios (HR) from Cox regressions. The influence of CVD risk factors on the associations was examined in a subgroup. RESULTS: Offspring birthweight was inversely associated with CVD mortality among parents and aunts/uncles. HR of CVD mortality for one standard deviation (SD) increase in offspring birthweight was 0.72 (0.69-0.75) in mothers and 0.89 (0.86-0.92) in fathers. In aunts/uncles, the HRs were between 0.90 (0.86-0.95) and 0.93 (0.91-0.95). Adjustment for CVD risk factors in a subgroup attenuated all the associations. CONCLUSIONS: Birthweight was associated with increased risk of CVD in parents and in aunts/uncles. These associations were largely explained by CVD risk factors. Our findings suggest that associations between offspring birthweight and CVD in adult relatives involve both behavioural variables (especially smoking) and shared genetics relating to established CVD risk factors.

12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31315910

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The 5-year mortality rate for pancreatic cancer is amongst the highest of all cancers. Greater understanding of underlying causes could inform population-wide intervention strategies for prevention. Summary genetic data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have become available for thousands of phenotypes. These data can be exploited in Mendelian randomization (MR) phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) to efficiently screen the phenome for potential determinants of disease risk. METHODS: We conducted an MR-PheWAS of pancreatic cancer using 486 phenotypes, proxied by 9124 genetic variants, and summary genetic data from a GWAS of pancreatic cancer (7,110 cancer cases; 7,264 controls). Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals per 1 SD increase in each phenotype were generated. RESULTS: We found evidence that previously reported risk factors of body mass index (1.46; 1.20 to 1.78) and hip circumference (1.42; 1.21 to 1.67) were associated with pancreatic cancer. We also found evidence of novel associations with metabolites that have not previously been implicated in pancreatic cancer: fibrinogen-cleavage peptide (1.60; 1.31 to 1.95) and O-sulfo-L-tyrosine (0.58; 0.46 to 0.74). An inverse association was also observed with lung adenocarcinoma (0.63; 0.54 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Markers of adiposity (BMI and hip circumference) are potential intervention targets for pancreatic cancer prevention. Further clarification of the causal relevance of fibrinogen cleavage peptides and O-sulfo-L-tyrosine in pancreatic cancer aetiology is required, as is the basis of our observed association with lung adenocarcinoma. IMPACT: For pancreatic cancer, MR-PheWAS can augment existing risk factor knowledge and generate novel hypotheses to investigate.

13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31353626

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Masked hypertension is associated with increased cardiovascular risk but is undetectable by clinic blood pressure (BP). Elevated systolic BP responses to submaximal exercise reveal the presence of masked hypertension in adults, but it is unknown whether this is the case during adolescence. We aimed to determine if exercise BP was raised in adolescents with masked hypertension, and its association with cardiovascular risk markers. METHODS: A total of 657 adolescents (aged 17.7 ± 0.3 years; 41.9% male) from the Avon longitudinal study of parents and children (ALSPAC) completed a step-exercise test with pre-, post-, and recovery-exercise BP, clinic BP and 24-hour ambulatory BP. Masked hypertension was defined as clinic BP <140/90 mm Hg and 24-hour ambulatory BP ≥130/80 mm Hg. Assessment of left-ventricular (LV) mass index and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (aortic PWV) was also undertaken. Thresholds of clinic, pre-, post-, and recovery-exercise systolic BP were explored from ROC analysis to identify masked hypertension. RESULTS: Fifty participants (7.8%) were classified with masked hypertension. Clinic, pre-, post-, and recovery-exercise systolic BP were associated with masked hypertension (AUC ≥ 0.69 for all, respectively), with the clinic systolic BP threshold of 115 mm Hg having high sensitivity and specificity and exercise BP thresholds of 126, 150, and 130 mm Hg, respectively, having high specificity and negative predictive value (individually or when combined) for ruling out the presence of masked hypertension. Additionally, this exercise systolic BP above the thresholds was associated with greater left-ventricular mass index and aortic PWV. CONCLUSIONS: Submaximal exercise systolic BP is associated with masked hypertension and adverse cardiovascular structure in adolescents. Exercise BP may be useful in addition to clinic BP for screening of high BP and cardiovascular risk in adolescents.

14.
Am J Psychiatry ; 176(8): 635-642, 2019 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31256611

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Irritability, which is strongly associated with impairment and negative outcomes, is a common reason for referral to mental health services but is a nosological and treatment challenge. A major issue is how irritability should be conceptualized. The authors used a developmental approach to test the hypothesis that there are several forms of irritability, including a "neurodevelopmental/ADHD-like" type, with onset in childhood, and a "depression/mood" type, with onset in adolescence. METHODS: Data were analyzed from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a prospective U.K. population-based cohort. Irritability trajectory classes were estimated for 7,924 individuals with data at multiple time points across childhood and adolescence (four possible time points from approximately ages 7 to 15). Psychiatric diagnoses were assessed at approximately ages 7 and 15. Psychiatric genetic risk was indexed by polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and depression, derived using large genome-wide association study results. RESULTS: Five irritability trajectory classes were identified: low (81.2%), decreasing (5.6%), increasing (5.5%), late-childhood limited (5.2%), and high-persistent (2.4%). The early-onset high-persistent trajectory was associated with male preponderance, childhood ADHD (odds ratio=108.64, 95% CI=57.45-204.41), and ADHD PRS (odds ratio=1.31, 95% CI=1.09-1.58). The adolescent-onset increasing trajectory was associated with female preponderance, adolescent depression (odds ratio=5.14, 95% CI=2.47-10.73), and depression PRS (odds ratio=1.20, 95% CI=1.05-1.38). Both the early-onset high-persistent and adolescent-onset increasing trajectory classes were associated with adolescent depression diagnosis and ADHD PRS. CONCLUSIONS: The developmental context of irritability may be important in its conceptualization: early-onset persistent irritability may be more neurodevelopmental/ADHD-like and later-onset irritability more depression/mood-like. These findings have implications for treatment as well as nosology.

15.
Int J Epidemiol ; 48(3): 887-898, 2019 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31257439

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There is mounting evidence that our environment and lifestyle has an impact on epigenetic regulatory mechanisms, such as DNA methylation. It has been suggested that these molecular processes may mediate the effect of risk factors on disease susceptibility, although evidence in this regard has been challenging to uncover. Using genetic variants as surrogate variables, we have used two-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR) to investigate the potential implications of putative changes to DNA methylation levels on disease susceptibility. METHODS: To illustrate our approach, we identified 412 CpG sites where DNA methylation was associated with prenatal smoking. We then applied 2SMR to investigate potential downstream effects of these putative changes on 643 complex traits using findings from large-scale genome-wide association studies. To strengthen evidence of mediatory mechanisms, we used multiple-trait colocalization to assess whether DNA methylation, nearby gene expression and complex trait variation were all influenced by the same causal genetic variant. RESULTS: We identified 22 associations that survived multiple testing (P < 1.89 × 10-7). In-depth follow-up analyses of particular note suggested that the associations between DNA methylation at the ASPSCR1 and REST/POL2RB gene regions, both linked with reduced lung function, may be mediated by changes in gene expression. We validated associations between DNA methylation and traits using independent samples from different stages across the life course. CONCLUSION: Our approach should prove valuable in prioritizing CpG sites that may mediate the effect of causal risk factors on disease. In-depth evaluations of findings are necessary to robustly disentangle causality from alternative explanations such as horizontal pleiotropy.

17.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 2949, 2019 07 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31270314

RESUMO

Recent analyses have shown educational attainment to be associated with a number of health outcomes. This association may, in part, be due to an effect of educational attainment on smoking behaviour. In this study, we apply a multivariable Mendelian randomisation design to determine whether the effect of educational attainment on smoking behaviour is due to educational attainment or general cognitive ability. We use individual data from the UK Biobank study (N = 120,050) and summary data from large GWA studies of educational attainment, cognitive ability and smoking behaviour. Our results show that more years of education are associated with a reduced likelihood of smoking that is not due to an effect of general cognitive ability on smoking behaviour. Given the considerable physical harms associated with smoking, the effect of educational attainment on smoking is likely to contribute to the health inequalities associated with differences in educational attainment.


Assuntos
Cognição/fisiologia , Escolaridade , Análise da Randomização Mendeliana , Fumar/genética , Viés , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Razão de Chances
18.
Eur J Endocrinol ; 2019 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31325907

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The identification of new causal risk factors has the potential to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction and the development of new treatments to reduce CVD deaths. In the general population, we sought to determine whether cortisol is a causal risk factor for CVD and coronary heart disease (CHD). DESIGN AND METHODS: Three approaches were adopted to investigate the association between cortisol and CVD/CHD. First, we used multivariable regression in two prospective nested case-control studies (total 798 participants, 313 incident CVD/CHD with complete data). Second, a random-effects meta-analysis of these data and previously published prospective associations was performed (total 6680 controls, 696 incident CVD/CHD). Finally, one- and two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses were performed (122,737 CHD cases, 547,261 controls for two-sample analyses). RESULTS: In the two prospective nested case-control studies, logistic regression adjusting for sex, age, body mass index, smoking and time of sampling, demonstrated a positive association between morning plasma cortisol and incident CVD (OR 1.28 per 1 SD higher cortisol, 95% CI 1.06-1.54). In the meta-analysis of prospective studies the equivalent result was OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06-1.31. Results from the two-sample Mendelian randomization were consistent with these positive associations: OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.98-1.15. CONCLUSIONS: All three approaches demonstrated a positive association between morning plasma cortisol and incident CVD. Together these findings suggest that elevated morning cortisol is a causal risk factor for CVD. The current data suggest strategies targeted at lowering cortisol action should be evaluated for their effects on CVD.

19.
Int J Epidemiol ; 48(3): 661-664, 2019 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31326987
20.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 8986, 2019 Jun 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31222129

RESUMO

High systolic blood pressure (SBP) causes cardiovascular disease (CVD) and is associated with mortality from other causes, but conventional multivariably-adjusted results may be confounded. Here we used a son's SBP (>1 million Swedish men) as an instrumental variable for parental SBP and examined associations with parents' cause-specific mortality, avoiding reverse causation. The hazard ratio for CVD mortality per SD (10.80 mmHg) of SBP was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.56); SBP was positively associated with coronary heart disease and stroke. SBP was also associated positively with all-cause, diabetes and kidney cancer mortality, and negatively with external causes. Negative associations with respiratory-related mortality were probably confounded by smoking. Hazard ratios for other causes were imprecise or null. Diastolic blood pressure gave similar results to SBP. CVD hazard ratios were intermediate between those from conventional multivariable studies and Mendelian randomization and stronger than those from clinical trials, approximately consistent with an effect of exposure duration on effect sizes. Plots of parental mortality against offspring SBP were approximately linear, supporting calls for lower SBP targets. Results suggest that conventional multivariable analyses of mortality and SBP are not substantially confounded by reverse causation and confirm positive effects of SBP on all-cause, CVD and diabetes mortality.

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