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1.
Malar J ; 19(1): 119, 2020 Mar 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32197619

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Drug safety assessments in clinical trials present unique analytical challenges. Some of these include adjusting for individual follow-up time, repeated measurements of multiple outcomes and missing data among others. Furthermore, pre-specifying appropriate analysis becomes difficult as some safety endpoints are unexpected. Although existing guidelines such as CONSORT encourage thorough reporting of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials, they provide limited details for safety data analysis. The limited guidelines may influence suboptimal analysis by failing to account for some analysis challenges above. A typical example where such challenges exist are trials of anti-malarial drugs for malaria prevention during pregnancy. Lack of proper standardized evaluation of the safety of antimalarial drugs has limited the ability to draw conclusions about safety. Therefore, a systematic review was conducted to establish the current practice in statistical analysis for preventive antimalarial drug safety in pregnancy. METHODS: The search included five databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Malaria in Pregnancy Library and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) to identify original English articles reporting Phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on anti-malarial drugs for malaria prevention in pregnancy published from January 2010 to July 2019. RESULTS: Eighteen trials were included in this review that collected multiple longitudinal safety outcomes including AEs. Statistical analysis and reporting of the safety outcomes in all the trials used descriptive statistics; proportions/counts (n = 18, 100%) and mean/median (n = 2, 11.1%). Results presentation included tabular (n = 16, 88.9%) and text description (n = 2, 11.1%). Univariate inferential methods were reported in most trials (n = 16, 88.9%); including Chi square/Fisher's exact test (n = 12, 66.7%), t test (n = 2, 11.1%) and Mann-Whitney/Wilcoxon test (n = 1, 5.6%). Multivariable methods, including Poisson and negative binomial were reported in few trials (n = 3, 16.7%). Assessment of a potential link between missing efficacy data and safety outcomes was not reported in any of the trials that reported efficacy missing data (n = 7, 38.9%). CONCLUSION: The review demonstrated that statistical analysis of safety data in anti-malarial drugs for malarial chemoprevention in pregnancy RCTs is inadequate. The analyses insufficiently account for multiple safety outcomes potential dependence, follow-up time and informative missing data which can compromise anti-malarial drug safety evidence development, based on the available data.

2.
PLoS One ; 15(3): e0229576, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32134933

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in women worldwide. The cardiovascular risk profile deteriorates after women enter menopause. By definition, women diagnosed with premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) experience menopause before 40 years of age, which may render these women even more susceptible to develop CVD later in life. However, prospective long-term follow up data of well phenotyped women with POI are scarce. In the current study we compare the CVD profile and risk of middle aged women previously diagnosed with POI, to a population based reference group matched for age and BMI. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compared 123 women (age 49.0 (± 4.3) years) and diagnosed with POI 8.1 (IQR: 6.8-9.6) years earlier, with 123 population controls (age 49.4 (± 3.9) years). All women underwent an extensive standardized cardiovascular screening. We assessed CVD risk factors including waist circumference, BMI, blood pressure, lipid profile, pulse wave velocity (PWV), and the prevalence of diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome (MetS) and carotid intima media thickness (cIMT), in both women with POI and controls. We calculated the 10-year CVD Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and the American Heart Association's suggested cardiovascular health score (CHS). Waist circumference (90.0 (IQR: 83.0-98.0) versus 80.7 (IQR: 75.1-86.8), p < 0.01), waist-to-hip ratio (0.90 (IQR: 0.85-0.93) versus 0.79 (IQR: 0.75-0.83), p < 0.01), systolic blood pressure (124 (IQR 112-135) versus 120 (IQR109-131), p < 0.04) and diastolic blood pressure (81 (IQR: 76-89) versus 78 (IQR: 71-86), p < 0.01), prevalence of hypertension (45 (37%) versus 21 (17%), p < 0.01) and MetS (19 (16%) versus 4 (3%), p < 0.01) were all significantly increased in women with POI compared to healthy controls. Other risk factors, however, such as lipids, glucose levels and prevalence of diabetes were similar comparing women with POI versus controls. The arterial stiffness assessed by PWV was also similar in both populations (8.1 (IQR: 7.1-9.4) versus 7.9 (IQR: 7.1-8.4), p = 0.21). In addition, cIMT was lower in women with POI compared to controls (550 µm (500-615) versus 684 µm (618-737), p < 0.01). The calculated 10-year CVD risk was 5.9% (IQR: 3.7-10.6) versus 6.0% (IQR: 3.9-9.0) (p = 0.31) and current CHS was 6.1 (1.9) versus 6.5 (1.6) (p = 0.07), respectively in POI versus controls. CONCLUSIONS: Middle age women with POI presented with more unfavorable cardiovascular risk factors (increased waist circumference and a higher prevalence of hypertension and MetS) compared to age and BMI matched population controls. In contrast, the current study reveals a lower cIMT and similar 10-year cardiovascular disease risk and cardiovascular health score. In summary, neither signs of premature atherosclerosis nor a worse cardiovascular disease risk or health score were observed among middle age women with POI compared to population controls. Longer-term follow-up studies of women of more advanced age are warranted to establish whether women with POI are truly at increased risk of developing CVD events later in life. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02616510.

3.
Hum Reprod Update ; 26(1): 103-117, 2020 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31867675

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) suffer from an unfavorable cardiometabolic risk profile, which is already established by child-bearing age. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: The aim of this systematic review along with an individual participant data meta-analysis is to evaluate whether cardiometabolic features in the offspring (females and males aged 1-18 years) of women with PCOS (OPCOS) are less favorable compared to the offspring of healthy controls. SEARCH METHODS: PubMed, Embase and gray literature databases were searched by three authors independently (M.N.G., M.A.W and J.C.) (last updated on 1 February 2018). Relevant key terms such as 'offspring' and 'PCOS' were combined. Outcomes were age-specific standardized scores of various cardiometabolic parameters: BMI, blood pressure, glucose, insulin, lipid profile and the sum scores of various cardiometabolic features (metabolic sum score). Linear mixed models were used for analyses with standardized beta (ß) as outcome. OUTCOMES: Nine relevant observational studies could be identified, which jointly included 1367 children: OPCOS and controls, originating from the Netherlands, Chile and the USA. After excluding neonates, duplicate records and follow-up screenings, a total of 885 subjects remained. In adjusted analyses, we observed that OPCOS (n = 298) exhibited increased plasma levels of fasting insulin (ß = 0.21(95%CI: 0.01-0.41), P = 0.05), insulin-resistance (ß = 0.21(95%CI: 0.01-0.42), P = 0.04), triglycerides (ß = 0.19(95%CI: 0.02-0.36), P = 0.03) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol concentrations (ß = 0.31(95%CI: 0.08-0.54), P < 0.01), but a reduced birthweight (ß = -116(95%CI: -195 to 38), P < 0.01) compared to controls (n = 587). After correction for multiple testing, however, differences in insulin and triglycerides lost their statistical significance. Interaction tests for sex revealed differences between males and females when comparing OPCOS versus controls. A higher 2-hour fasting insulin was observed among female OPCOS versus female controls (estimated difference for females (ßf) = 0.45(95%CI: 0.07 to 0.83)) compared to the estimated difference between males ((ßm) = -0.20(95%CI: -0.58 to 0.19)), with interaction-test: P = 0.03. Low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol differences in OPCOS versus controls were lower among females (ßf = -0.39(95%CI: -0.62 to 0.16)), but comparable between male OPCOS and male controls (ßm = 0.27(95%CI: -0.03 to 0.57)), with interaction-test: P < 0.01. Total cholesterol differences in OPCOS versus controls were also lower in females compared to the difference in male OPCOS and male controls (ßf = -0.31(95%CI: -0.57 to 0.06), ßm = 0.28(95%CI: -0.01 to 0.56), interaction-test: P = 0.01). The difference in HDL-cholesterol among female OPCOS versus controls (ßf = 0.53(95%CI: 0.18-0.88)) was larger compared to the estimated mean difference among OPCOS males and the male controls (ßm = 0.13(95%CI: -0.05-0.31), interaction-test: P < 0.01). Interaction test in metabolic sum score revealed a significant difference between females (OPCOS versus controls) and males (OPCOS versus controls); however, sub analyses performed in both sexes separately did not reveal a difference among females (OPCOS versus controls: ßf = -0.14(95%CI: -1.05 to 0.77)) or males (OPCOS versus controls: ßm = 0.85(95%CI: -0.10 to 1.79)), with P-value < 0.01. WIDER IMPLICATIONS: We observed subtle signs of altered cardiometabolic health in OPCOS. Therefore, the unfavorable cardiovascular profile of women with PCOS at childbearing age may-next to a genetic predisposition-influence the health of their offspring. Sensitivity analyses revealed that these differences were predominantly observed among female offspring aged between 1 and 18 years. Moreover, studies with minimal risk of bias should elucidate the influence of a PCOS diagnosis in mothers on both sexes during fetal development and subsequently during childhood.

4.
Hum Reprod ; 2019 Dec 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31838515

RESUMO

In IVF/ICSI treatment, the FSH starting dose is often increased in predicted low responders from the belief that it improves the chance of having a baby by maximizing the number of retrieved oocytes. This intervention has been evaluated in several randomized controlled trials, and despite a slight increase in the number of oocytes-on average one to two more oocytes in the high versus standard dose group-no beneficial impact on the probability of a live birth has been demonstrated (risk difference, -0.02; 95% CI, -0.11 to 0.06). Still, many clinicians and researchers maintain a highly ingrained belief in 'the more oocytes, the better'. This is mainly based on cross-sectional studies, where the positive correlation between the number of retrieved oocytes and the probability of a live birth is interpreted as a direct causal relation. If the latter would be present, indeed, maximizing the oocyte number would benefit our patients. The current paper argues that the use of high FSH doses may not actually improve the probability of a live birth for predicted low responders undergoing IVF/ICSI treatment and exemplifies the flaws of directly using cross-sectional data to guide FSH dosing in clinical practice. Also, difficulties in the de-implementation of the increased FSH dosing strategy are discussed, which include the prioritization of intermediate outcomes (such as cycle cancellations) and the potential biases in the interpretation of study findings (such as confirmation or rescue bias).

5.
ERJ Open Res ; 5(4)2019 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31687368

RESUMO

Our study presents findings on a previously developed standard set of clinical outcome data for pulmonary sarcoidosis patients. We aimed to assess whether changes in outcome varied between the different centres and to evaluate the feasibility of collecting the standard set retrospectively. This retrospective observational comparative benchmark study included six interstitial lung disease expert centres based in the Netherlands, Belgium, the UK and the USA. The standard set of outcome measures included 1) mortality, 2) changes in pulmonary function (forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 s, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide), 3) soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R) change, 4) weight changes, 5) quality-of-life (QoL) measures, 6) osteoporosis and 7) clinical outcome status (COS). Data collection was considered feasible if the data were collected in ≥80% of all patients. 509 patients were included in the retrospective cohort. In total six patients died, with a mean survival of 38±23.4 months after the diagnosis. Centres varied in mean baseline FVC, ranging from 110 (95% CI 92-124)% predicted to 99 (95% CI 97-123)% pred. Mean baseline body mass index (BMI) of patients in the different centres varied between 27 (95% CI 23.6-29.4) kg·m-2 and 31.8 (95% CI 28.1-35.6) kg·m-2. 310 (60.9%) patients were still on systemic therapy 2 years after the diagnosis. It was feasible to measure mortality, changes in pulmonary function, weight changes and COS. It is not (yet) feasible to retrospectively collect sIL-2R, osteoporosis and QoL data internationally. This study shows that data collection for the standard set of outcome measures for pulmonary sarcoidosis was feasible for four out of seven outcome measures. Trends in pulmonary function and BMI were similar for different hospitals when comparing different practices.

6.
Res Synth Methods ; 2019 Nov 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31759339

RESUMO

Many randomized trials evaluate an intervention effect on time-to-event outcomes. Individual participant data (IPD) from such trials can be obtained and combined in a so-called IPD meta-analysis (IPD-MA), to summarize the overall intervention effect. We performed a narrative literature review to provide an overview of methods for conducting an IPD-MA of randomized intervention studies with a time-to-event outcome. We focused on identifying good methodological practice for modeling frailty of trial participants across trials, modeling heterogeneity of intervention effects, choosing appropriate association measures, dealing with (trial differences in) censoring and follow-up times, and addressing time-varying intervention effects and effect modification (interactions).We discuss how to achieve this using parametric and semi-parametric methods, and describe how to implement these in a one-stage or two-stage IPD-MA framework. We recommend exploring heterogeneity of the effect(s) through interaction and non-linear effects. Random effects should be applied to account for residual heterogeneity of the intervention effect. We provide further recommendations, many of which specific to IPD-MA of time-to-event data from randomized trials examining an intervention effect.We illustrate several key methods in a real IPD-MA, where IPD of 1225 participants from 5 randomized clinical trials were combined to compare the effects of Carbamazepine and Valproate on the incidence of epileptic seizures.

7.
Pharmacogenomics J ; 2019 Oct 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31624333

RESUMO

Genetic mutations related to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) act through distinct pathophysiological pathways, which may lead to varying treatment responses. Here we assess the genetic interaction between C9orf72, UNC13A, and MOBP with creatine and valproic acid treatment in two clinical trials. Genotypic data was available for 309 of the 338 participants (91.4%). The UNC13A genotype affected mortality (p = 0.012), whereas C9orf72 repeat-expansion carriers exhibited a faster rate of decline in overall (p = 0.051) and bulbar functioning (p = 0.005). A dose-response pharmacogenetic interaction was identified between creatine and the A allele of the MOBP genotype (p = 0.027), suggesting a qualitative interaction in a recessive model (HR 3.96, p = 0.015). Not taking genetic information into account may mask evidence of response to treatment or be an unrecognized source of bias. Incorporating genetic data could help investigators to identify critical treatment clues in patients with ALS.

8.
J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry ; 90(12): 1331-1337, 2019 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31292200

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Funding and resources for low prevalent neurodegenerative disorders such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are limited, and optimising their use is vital for efficient drug development. In this study, we review the design assumptions for pivotal ALS clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints and provide optimised settings for future trials. METHODS: We extracted design settings from 13 completed placebo-controlled trials. Optimal assumptions were estimated using parametric survival models in individual participant data (n=4991). Designs were compared in terms of sample size, trial duration, drug use and costs. RESULTS: Previous trials overestimated the hazard rate by 18.9% (95% CI 3.4% to 34.5%, p=0.021). The median expected HR was 0.56 (range 0.33-0.66). Additionally, we found evidence for an increasing mean hazard rate over time (Weibull shape parameter of 2.03, 95% CI 1.93 to 2.15, p<0.001), which affects the design and planning of future clinical trials. Incorporating accrual time and assuming an increasing hazard rate at the design stage reduced sample size by 33.2% (95% CI 27.9 to 39.4), trial duration by 17.4% (95% CI 11.6 to 23.3), drug use by 14.3% (95% CI 9.6 to 19.0) and follow-up costs by 21.2% (95% CI 15.6 to 26.8). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing distributional knowledge and incorporating accrual at the design stage could achieve large gains in the efficiency of ALS clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints. We provide an open-source platform that helps investigators to make more accurate sample size calculations and optimise the use of their available resources.

9.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31271047

RESUMO

Objective: Spirometry is commonly used as screening tool for respiratory insufficiency in neuromuscular diseases. Despite the well-known effects of reference standards on spirometric outcomes, its standardization is overlooked in current guidelines. We aim to illustrate the effect of spirometric reference values on prognostication, medical decision-making, and trial eligibility in the applied setting of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Methods: We selected 4,651 patients with 32,022 FVC measurements from the PRO-ACT dataset. The FVC estimates were standardized according to five reference standards: Knudson '76, Knudson '83, ECSC, NHANES III, and GLI-2012. (Generalized) linear mixed-effects and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate longitudinal patterns and time-to-event outcomes. Results: The mean population %predicted FVC varied between 78.5% (95% CI 78.0-79.1) and 88.5% (95% CI 87.9-89.1). The unstandardized liters provided the worst fit on the survival data (AIC 20573, c-index 0.760), whereas the GLI provided the best fit (AIC 20374, c-index 0.780, p < 0.001). The mean population rate of decline in %predicted FVC could vary as much as 11.4% between reference standards. The median time-to-50% predicted FVC differed by 2.9 months between recent (14.5 months, 95% CI 14.4-16.1) and early reference standards (17.4 months, 95% CI 16.1-18.2). Conclusion: Independent of technique, device, or evaluator, spirometric reference values affect the utility of spirometry in ALS. Standardization of reference values is of the utmost importance to optimize clinical decision-making, improve prognostication, enhance between-center comparison and unify patient selection for clinical trials.

10.
J Neurol ; 266(10): 2387-2395, 2019 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31187191

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The extensive heterogeneity between patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) complicates the quantification of disease progression. In this study, we determine the value of remote, accelerometer-based monitoring of physical activity in patients with ALS. METHODS: This longitudinal cohort study was conducted in a home-based setting; all study materials were sent by mail. Patients wore the ActiGraph during waking hours for 7 days every 2-3 months and provided information regarding their daily functioning (ALSFRS-R). We defined four accelerometer-based endpoints that either reflect the average daily activity or quantify the patient's physical capacity. RESULTS: A total of 42 patients participated; the total valid monitoring period was 9288 h with a 93.0% adherence rate. At baseline, patients were active 27.9% (range 11.6-52.4%) of their time; this declined by 0.64% (95% 0.43-0.86, p < 0.001) per month. Accelerometer-based endpoints were strongly associated with the ALSFRS-R (r 0.78, 95% CI 0.63-0.92, p < 0.001), but showed less variability over time than the ALSFRS-R (coefficient of variation 0.64-0.81 vs. 1.06, respectively). Accelerometer-based endpoints could reduce sample size by 30.3% for 12-month trials and 44.6% for 18-month trials; for trials lasting less than 9 months, the ALSFRS-R resulted in smaller sample sizes. CONCLUSION: Accelerometry is an objective method for quantifying disease progression, which could obtain real-world insights in the patient's physical functioning and may personalize the delivery of care. In addition, remote monitoring provides patients with the opportunity to participate in clinical trials from home, paving the way to a patient-centric clinical trial model.


Assuntos
Acelerometria/normas , Esclerose Amiotrófica Lateral/diagnóstico , Esclerose Amiotrófica Lateral/fisiopatologia , Progressão da Doença , Exercício , Monitorização Ambulatorial/normas , Idoso , Exercício/fisiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
11.
Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand ; 98(10): 1332-1340, 2019 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31127607

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The OPTIMIST trial revealed that for women starting in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment, no substantial differences exist in first cycle and cumulative live birth rates between an antral follicle count (AFC)-based individualized follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) dose and a standard dose. Female age and body weight have been suggested to cause heterogeneity in the effect of FSH dose individualization. The objective of the current study is to evaluate whether these patient characteristics modify the effect of AFC-based individualized FSH dosing in IVF/ICSI treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A secondary data-analysis of the OPTIMIST trial. Women initiating IVF/ICSI treatment were classified as predicted poor (AFC 0-7), suboptimal (AFC 8-10) or hyper responders (AFC >15), and randomly allocated to a standard FSH dose (150 IU/d) or an individualized FSH dose (450, 225 or 100 IU/d for predicted poor, suboptimal and hyper responders, respectively). In each predicted response category, logistic regression models with interaction terms were used to evaluate the presence of effect modification. The first cycle was analyzed, and the primary outcomes were first complete cycle live birth rate (including fresh plus frozen-thawed embryo transfers) and ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) risks. RESULTS: No effect modification was revealed in the predicted poor (n = 234) and suboptimal (n = 277) responders. In the predicted hyper responders (n = 521), the effect of the individualized FSH dose on the first cycle live birth rate was modified by female age (P = 0.02) and the effect on OHSS risks was modified by body weight (P = 0.02). A dose reduction from 150 to 100 IU/d generally decreased the OHSS risks in predicted hyper responders, but also reduced the chance of a live birth in young women, and had no beneficial impact on OHSS risks in women with a relatively low body weight. CONCLUSIONS: In women with a predicted hyper response undergoing IVF/ICSI treatment, female age and body weight seem to modify the effect of FSH dose individualization. Although a reduced FSH starting dose generally decreases the OHSS risks, it may also reduce the chance of a live birth, specifically for young women. Future studies could consider these findings when investigating the optimal approach to reduce OHSS risks while maintaining the probability of a live birth for predicted hyper responders in IVF/ICSI treatment.

12.
Hum Reprod ; 34(6): 1030-1041, 2019 Jun 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31125412

RESUMO

STUDY QUESTION: Do cumulative live birth rates (CLBRs) over multiple IVF/ICSI cycles confirm the low prognosis in women stratified according to the POSEIDON criteria? SUMMARY ANSWER: The CLBR of low-prognosis women is ~56% over 18 months of IVF/ICSI treatment and varies between the POSEIDON groups, which is primarily attributable to the impact of female age. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The POSEIDON group recently proposed a new stratification for low-prognosis women in IVF/ICSI treatment, with the aim to define more homogenous populations for clinical trials and stimulate a patient-tailored therapeutic approach. These new criteria combine qualitative and quantitative parameters to create four groups of low-prognosis women with supposedly similar biologic characteristics. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This study analyzed the data of a Dutch multicenter observational cohort study including 551 low-prognosis women, aged <44 years, who initiated IVF/ICSI treatment between 2011 and 2014 and were treated with a fixed FSH dose of 150 IU/day in the first treatment cycle. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Low-prognosis women were categorized into one of the POSEIDON groups based on their age (younger or older than 35 years), anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level (above or below 0.96 ng/ml), and the ovarian response (poor or suboptimal) in their first cycle of standard stimulation. The primary outcome was the CLBR over multiple complete IVF/ICSI cycles, including all subsequent fresh and frozen-thawed embryo transfers, within 18 months of treatment. Cumulative incidence curves were obtained using an optimistic and a conservative analytic approach. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The CLBR of the low-prognosis women was on average ~56% over 18 months of IVF/ICSI treatment. Younger unexpected poor (n = 38) and suboptimal (n = 179) responders had a CLBR of ~65% and ~68%, respectively, and younger expected poor responders (n = 65) had a CLBR of ~59%. The CLBR of older unexpected poor (n = 41) and suboptimal responders (n = 102) was ~42% and ~54%, respectively, and of older expected poor responders (n = 126) ~39%. For comparison, the CLBR of younger (n = 164) and older (n = 78) normal responders with an adequate ovarian reserve was ~72% and ~58% over 18 months of treatment, respectively. No large differences were observed in the number of fresh treatment cycles between the POSEIDON groups, with an average of two fresh cycles per woman within 18 months of follow-up. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Small numbers in some (sub)groups reduced the precision of the estimates. However, our findings provide the first relevant indication of the CLBR of low-prognosis women in the POSEIDON groups. Small FSH dose adjustments between cycles were allowed, inducing therapeutic disparity. Yet, this is in accordance with current daily practice and increases the generalizability of our findings. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The CLBRs vary between the POSEIDON groups. This heterogeneity is primarily determined by a woman's age, reflecting the importance of oocyte quality. In younger women, current IVF/ICSI treatment reaches relatively high CLBR over multiple complete cycles, despite reduced quantitative parameters. In older women, the CLBR remains relatively low over multiple complete cycles, due to the co-occurring decline in quantitative and qualitative parameters. As no effective interventions exist to counteract this decline, clinical management currently relies on proper counselling. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): No external funds were obtained for this study. J.A.L. is supported by a Research Fellowship grant and received an unrestricted personal grant from Merck BV. S.C.O., T.C.v.T., and H.L.T. received an unrestricted personal grant from Merck BV. C.B.L. received research grants from Merck, Ferring, and Guerbet. K.F. received unrestricted research grants from Merck Serono, Ferring, and GoodLife. She also received fees for lectures and consultancy from Ferring and GoodLife. A.H. declares that the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University Medical Centre Groningen received an unrestricted research grant from Ferring Pharmaceuticals BV, the Netherlands. J.S.E.L. has received unrestricted research grants from Ferring, Zon-MW, and The Dutch Heart Association. He also received travel grants and consultancy fees from Danone, Euroscreen, Ferring, AnshLabs, and Titus Healthcare. B.W.J.M. is supported by an National Health and Medical Research Council Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548) and reports consultancy work for ObsEva, Merck, and Guerbet. He also received a research grant from Merck BV and travel support from Guerbet. F.J.M.B. received monetary compensation as a member of the external advisory board for Merck Serono (the Netherlands) and Ferring Pharmaceuticals BV (the Netherlands) for advisory work for Gedeon Richter (Belgium) and Roche Diagnostics on automated AMH assay development, and for a research cooperation with Ansh Labs (USA). All other authors have nothing to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable.

13.
Clin Endocrinol (Oxf) ; 91(2): 314-322, 2019 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31049984

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Women with premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) enter menopause before age 40. Early menopause was associated with increased risk for coronary artery disease (CAD), death from cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. We compared the prevalence of CAD between middle-aged women on average 10 years following the initial POI diagnosis, with a population-based cohort. DESIGN: Cross-sectional case-control study. PARTICIPANTS: Women from two Dutch University Medical Centers above 45 years of age previously diagnosed with POI (n = 98) were selected and compared with age- and race-matched controls from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was detectable coronary artery calcium (CAC) determined by coronary computed tomography (CCT). RESULTS: Women with POI had significantly higher blood pressure, cholesterol and glucose, despite lower BMI compared to controls. Similar proportions of detectable CAC (CAC score >0 Agatston Units) were observed in women with POI and controls (POI n = 16 (16%), controls n = 52 (18%), P = 0.40 and Padj  = 0.93). In women with POI separately, we were not able to identify associations between CVD risk factors and CAC. The following CVD risk factors in controls were positively associated with CAC: age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and LDL cholesterol. HRT use was negatively associated with CAC in controls. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of CAC did not differ significantly in women with POI around 50 years of age, compared to an age- and race-matched control group. We observe no increased calcified coronary disease in POI patients, despite the presence of unfavourable cardiovascular risk factors in these women.

14.
J Clin Endocrinol Metab ; 104(11): 5024-5031, 2019 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31006802

RESUMO

CONTEXT: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels are used worldwide as a screening tool for the duration of the female reproductive lifespan. Although AMH levels are associated with age at menopause, individual predictions of menopause with a single AMH measurement are unreliable. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated whether individual AMH decline patterns can improve the prediction of menopause compared with a single measurement. DESIGN: The study population comprised 2434 premenopausal women from the population-based Doetinchem Cohort Study. Participants were followed up every 5 years for a total of 20 years, and AMH was measured in 6699 plasma samples with the picoAMH assay. Longitudinal statistical modeling was combined with time varying Cox modeling, to integrate multiple AMH measurements per woman. RESULTS: The mean age at menopause was 50 years, and 7.4% of the women who reached menopause during follow-up did so before age 45 years. For a 25-year-old, the AMH decline rate between ages 20 and 25 years increased the C-statistic of menopause prediction from 0.64 to 0.69. Beyond that age, the AMH decline rate did not improve predictions of menopause or early menopause. For women younger than age 30 years, for whom menopause prediction is arguably most relevant, the models underestimated the risk of early menopause. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that knowledge of the AMH decline rate does not improve the prediction of menopause. Based on the low discriminative ability and underestimation of the risk of early menopause, the use of AMH as a screening method for the timing of menopause cannot currently be advocated.

15.
Neurology ; 2019 Jan 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30626653

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of eligibility criteria on exclusion rates, generalizability, and outcome heterogeneity in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) clinical trials and to assess the value of a risk-based inclusion criterion. METHODS: A literature search was performed to summarize the eligibility criteria of clinical trials. The extracted criteria were applied to an incidence cohort of 2,904 consecutive patients with ALS to quantify their effects on generalizability and outcome heterogeneity. We evaluated the effect of a risk-based selection approach on trial design using a personalized survival prediction model. RESULTS: We identified 38 trials. A large variability exists between trials in all patient characteristics for enrolled patients (p < 0.001), except for the proportion of men (p = 0.21). Exclusion rates varied widely (from 14% to 95%; mean 59.8%; 95% confidence interval 52.6%-66.7%). Stratification of the eligible populations into prognostic subgroups showed that eligibility criteria lead to exclusion of patients in all prognostic groups. Eligibility criteria neither reduce heterogeneity in survival time (from 22.0 to 20.5 months, p = 0.09) nor affect between-patient variability in functional decline (from 0.62 to 0.65, p = 0.25). In none of the 38 trials were the eligibility criteria found to be more efficient than the prediction model in optimizing sample size and eligibility rate. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients with ALS are excluded from trial participation, which questions the generalizability of trial results. Eligibility criteria only minimally improve homogeneity in trial endpoints. An individualized risk-based criterion could be used to balance the gains in trial design and loss in generalizability.

16.
Stat Med ; 38(9): 1601-1619, 2019 04 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30614028

RESUMO

Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) has been advocated for developing clinical prediction models that distinguish between three or more unordered outcomes. We present a full-factorial simulation study to examine the predictive performance of MLR models in relation to the relative size of outcome categories, number of predictors and the number of events per variable. It is shown that MLR estimated by Maximum Likelihood yields overfitted prediction models in small to medium sized data. In most cases, the calibration and overall predictive performance of the multinomial prediction model is improved by using penalized MLR. Our simulation study also highlights the importance of events per variable in the multinomial context as well as the total sample size. As expected, our study demonstrates the need for optimism correction of the predictive performance measures when developing the multinomial logistic prediction model. We recommend the use of penalized MLR when prediction models are developed in small data sets or in medium sized data sets with a small total sample size (ie, when the sizes of the outcome categories are balanced). Finally, we present a case study in which we illustrate the development and validation of penalized and unpenalized multinomial prediction models for predicting malignancy of ovarian cancer.

17.
Epidemiology ; 30(1): 120-129, 2019 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30198936

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Several epidemiologic designs allow studying fecundability, the monthly probability of pregnancy occurrence in noncontracepting couples in the general population. These designs may, to varying extents, suffer from attenuation bias and other biases. We aimed to compare the main designs: incident and prevalent cohorts, pregnancy-based, and current duration approaches. METHODS: A realistic simulation model produced individual reproductive lives of a fictitious population. We drew random population samples according to each study design, from which the cumulative probability of pregnancy was estimated. We compared the abilities of the designs to highlight the impact of an environmental factor influencing fecundability, relying on the Cox model with censoring after 12 or 6 months. RESULTS: Regarding the estimation of the cumulative probability of pregnancy, the pregnancy-based approach was the most prone to bias. When we considered a hypothetical factor associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of pregnancy of 0.7, the estimated HR was in the 0.78-0.85 range, according to designs. This attenuation bias was largest for the prevalent cohort and smallest for the current duration approach, which had the largest variance. The bias could be limited in all designs by censoring durations at 6 months. CONCLUSION: Attenuation bias in HRs cannot be ignored in fecundability studies. Focusing on the effect of exposures during the first 6 months of unprotected intercourse through censoring removes part of this bias. For risk factors that can accurately be assessed retrospectively, retrospective fecundity designs, although biased, are not much more strongly so than logistically more intensive designs entailing follow-up.


Assuntos
Fertilidade , Adulto , Viés , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Transversais , Coleta de Dados , Feminino , Humanos , Gravidez , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Projetos de Pesquisa , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Adulto Jovem
18.
J Clin Endocrinol Metab ; 104(3): 809-818, 2019 03 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30590587

RESUMO

Context: Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) are at increased risk for obstetric and perinatal complications. At present, it is unknown how characteristics of PCOS relate to the likelihood of these complications. Objective: To evaluate which preconception features are associated with obstetric and perinatal disease among infertile women with PCOS. Design: Data from two prospective cohort studies completed from January 2004 until January 2014 were linked to Dutch Perinatal national registry outcomes. Setting: Two Dutch university medical centers. Participants: 2768 women diagnosed with PCOS were included. Participants underwent an extensive standardized preconception screening. Exclusion criteria included: age <18 years or >45 years, language barrier, or failure to meet PCOS criteria. Interventions: None. Main Outcome Measures: Outcome measures were obtained from the Dutch Perinatal national registry and included: preeclampsia, preterm delivery, small for gestational age (SGA), low Apgar score, and any adverse outcome. Results: 1715 (62% of participants) women with PCOS were identified as undergoing a pregnancy with live birth after screening. In fully adjusted models, prepregnancy free androgen index was associated with subsequent preeclampsia [OR (95% CI), 1.1 (1.0 to 1.1)]. Fasting glucose [1.4 (1.2 to 1.7)] and testosterone [1.5 (1.2 to 1.7)] predicted preterm delivery. Fasting insulin [1.003 (1.001 to 1.005)], and testosterone [1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)] predicted any adverse outcome. SGA was only predicted by features nonspecific to PCOS. Conclusions: Primary disease characteristics of PCOS, chiefly hyperandrogenism and impaired glucose tolerance, predict suboptimal obstetric and neonatal outcomes. Increased surveillance during pregnancy should focus on women with PCOS and these features to help mitigate disease risk.


Assuntos
Intolerância à Glucose/epidemiologia , Hiperandrogenismo/epidemiologia , Síndrome do Ovário Policístico/complicações , Pré-Eclâmpsia/diagnóstico , Nascimento Prematuro/diagnóstico , Adulto , Feminino , Intolerância à Glucose/etiologia , Humanos , Hiperandrogenismo/etiologia , Recém-Nascido , Recém-Nascido Pequeno para a Idade Gestacional , Saúde Materna/estatística & dados numéricos , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Pré-Eclâmpsia/etiologia , Gravidez , Resultado da Gravidez , Nascimento Prematuro/etiologia , Prognóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Sistema de Registros/estatística & dados numéricos , Medição de Risco , Adulto Jovem
19.
Lancet Psychiatry ; 5(10): 797-807, 2018 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30115598

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: No established treatment algorithm exists for patients with schizophrenia. Whether switching antipsychotics or early use of clozapine improves outcome in (first-episode) schizophrenia is unknown. METHODS: This three-phase study was done in 27 centres, consisting of general hospitals and psychiatric specialty clinics, in 14 European countries and Israel. Patients aged 18-40 years who met criteria of the DSM-IV for schizophrenia, schizophreniform disorder, or schizoaffective disorder were treated for 4 weeks with up to 800 mg/day amisulpride orally in an open-label design (phase 1). Patients who did not meet symptomatic remission criteria at 4 weeks were randomly assigned to continue amisulpride or switch to olanzapine (≤20 mg/day) during a 6-week double-blind phase, with patients and staff masked to treatment allocation (phase 2). Randomisation was done online by a randomisation website; the application implemented stratification by site and sex, and applied the minimisation method for randomisation. Patients who were not in remission at 10 weeks were given clozapine (≤900 mg/day) for an additional 12 weeks in an open-label design (phase 3). The primary outcome was the number of patients who achieved symptomatic remission at the final visits of phases 1, 2, and 3, measured by intention-to-treat analysis. Data were analysed with a generalised linear mixed model, with a logistic link and binomial error distribution. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01248195, and closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between May 26, 2011, and May 15, 2016, we recruited 481 participants who signed informed consent. Of the 446 patients in the intention-to-treat sample, 371 (83%) completed open-label amisulpride treatment, and 250 (56%) achieved remission after phase 1. 93 patients who were not in remission continued to the 6-week double-blind switching trial, with 72 (77%) patients completing the trial (39 on olanzapine and 33 on amisulpride); 15 (45%) patients on amisulpride versus 17 (44%) on olanzapine achieved remission (p=0·87). Of the 40 patients who were not in remission after 10 weeks of treatment, 28 (70%) started on clozapine; 18 (64%) patients completed the 12-week treatment, and five (28%) achieved remission. The number of serious adverse events did not differ between the treatment arms in phase 2: one patient on olanzapine was admitted to hospital because of an epileptic seizure, and one patient on amisulpride was admitted to hospital twice because of exacerbations of psychotic symptoms. Over the course of the trial, two serious suicide attempts were reported. INTERPRETATION: For most patients in the early stages of schizophrenia, symptomatic remission can be achieved using a simple treatment algorithm comprising the sequential administration of amisulpride and clozapine. Since switching to olanzapine did not improve outcome, clozapine should be used after patients fail a single antipsychotic trial-not until two antipsychotics have been tried, as is the current recommendation. FUNDING: European Commission Seventh Framework Program.


Assuntos
Amissulprida/uso terapêutico , Antipsicóticos/uso terapêutico , Clozapina/uso terapêutico , Olanzapina/uso terapêutico , Esquizofrenia/tratamento farmacológico , Adolescente , Adulto , Antipsicóticos/efeitos adversos , Europa (Continente) , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Resultado do Tratamento , Adulto Jovem
20.
Fertil Steril ; 109(4): 594-600.e1, 2018 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29605405

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between estrogen (E) exposure and deficiency and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among women with primary ovarian insufficiency (POI). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study conducted between 1996 and 2016. SETTING: Tertiary referral centers. PATIENT(S): A total of 385 women with POI, defined by amenorrhea and FSH levels ≥40 IU/L before 40 years of age, were recruited. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Women underwent a standardized intake questionnaire including data on menstrual cyclicity. Lifetime E exposure and E-free period were assessed. Serum was analyzed for endocrine and CVD profiles. The Framingham 30-year risk of CVD was calculated. RESULT(S): Lifetime E exposure (mean ± SD) was 19.3 ± 7.0 years, E-free period was 3.1 ± 4.1 years, and age at screening was 34.8 ± 7.4 years. In multivariate models E-free interval associated positively with estimated risk of hard and general CVD events (ß 0.18 [95% confidence interval 0.08, 0.29]; 0.20 [0.05, 0.35], respectively), and lifetime E exposure associated negatively with estimated risk of hard and general CVD events (-0.15 [-0.24, -0.05]; -0.16 [-0.29, -0.03], respectively), as well as low density lipoprotein cholesterol (-0.03 [-0.06, 0.00]) and non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (-0.04 [-0.07, 0.00]). CONCLUSION(S): Prolonged E deprivation is associated with an increased estimated risk of CVD, whereas prolonged E exposure is associated with a reduced estimated risk. These results support the policy of early and continued use of E replacement therapy in women with POI. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT0230904.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Estradiol/deficiência , Terapia de Reposição de Estrogênios , Insuficiência Ovariana Primária/tratamento farmacológico , Adulto , Biomarcadores/sangue , Doenças Cardiovasculares/sangue , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Estradiol/sangue , Terapia de Reposição de Estrogênios/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Humanos , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Insuficiência Ovariana Primária/sangue , Insuficiência Ovariana Primária/epidemiologia , Prognóstico , Fatores de Proteção , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo
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