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Epidemiol Infect ; 148: e270, 2020 11 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33143799


In this study, an analysis of the Chilean public health response to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 is presented. The analysis is based on the daily transmission rate (DTR). The Chilean response has been based on dynamic quarantines, which are established, lifted or prolonged based on the percentage of infected individuals in the fundamental administrative sections, called communes. This analysis is performed at a national level, at the level of the Metropolitan Region (MR) and at the commune level in the MR according to whether the commune did or did not enter quarantine between late March and mid-May of 2020. The analysis shows a certain degree of efficacy in controlling the pandemic using the dynamic quarantine strategy. However, it also shows that apparent control has only been partially achieved to date. With this policy, the control of the DTR partially falls to 4%, where it settles, and the MR is the primary vector of infection at the country level. For this reason, we can conclude that the MR has not managed to control the disease, with variable results within its own territory.

Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Quarentena , Betacoronavirus , Chile/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão
J Med Virol ; 92(10): 1988-1994, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32330297


Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has reached unprecedented pandemic levels and is affecting almost every country in the world. Ramping up the testing capacity of a country supposes an essential public health response to this new outbreak. A pool testing strategy where multiple samples are tested in a single reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) kit could potentially increase a country's testing capacity. The aim of this study is to propose a simple mathematical model to estimate the optimum number of pooled samples according to the relative prevalence of positive tests in a particular healthcare context, assuming that if a group tests negative, no further testing is done whereas if a group tests positive, all the subjects of the group are retested individually. The model predicts group sizes that range from 11 to 3 subjects. For a prevalence of 10% of positive tests, 40.6% of tests can be saved using testing groups of four subjects. For a 20% prevalence, 17.9% of tests can be saved using groups of three subjects. For higher prevalences, the strategy flattens and loses effectiveness. Pool testing individuals for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is a valuable strategy that could considerably boost a country's testing capacity. However, further studies are needed to address how large these groups can be, without losing sensitivity on the RT-PCR. The strategy best works in settings with a low prevalence of positive tests. It is best implemented in subgroups with low clinical suspicion. The model can be adapted to specific prevalences, generating a tailored to the context implementation of the pool testing strategy.

Epidemiol Infect ; 149: e9, 2020 12 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33436132


Amplifying the testing capacity and making better use of testing resources is a crucial measure when fighting any pandemic. A pooled testing strategy for SARS-CoV-2 has theoretically been shown to increase the testing capacity of a country, especially when applied in low prevalence settings. Experimental studies have shown that the sensitivity of reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction is not affected when implemented in small groups. Previous models estimated the optimum group size as a function of the historical prevalence; however, this implies a homogeneous distribution of the disease within the population. This study aimed to explore whether separating individuals by age groups when pooling samples results in any further savings on test kits or affects the optimum group size estimation compared to Dorfman's pooling, based on historical prevalence. For this evaluation, age groups of interest were defined as 0-19 years, 20-59 years and over 60 years old. Generalisation of Dorfman's pooling was performed by adding statistical weight to the age groups based on the number of confirmed cases and tests performed in the segment. The findings showed that when the pooling samples are based on age groups, there is a decrease in the number of tests per subject needed to diagnose one subject. Although this decrease is minuscule, it might account for considerable savings when applied on a large scale. In addition, the savings are considerably higher in settings where there is a high standard deviation among the positivity rate of the age segments of the general population.

/métodos , /diagnóstico , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Estatísticos , Adulto Jovem