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1.
Sci Data ; 7(1): 54, 2020 02 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32054849

RESUMO

Despite China's emissions having plateaued in 2013, it is still the world's leading energy consumer and CO2 emitter, accounting for approximately 30% of global emissions. Detailed CO2 emission inventories by energy and sector have great significance to China's carbon policies as well as to achieving global climate change mitigation targets. This study constructs the most up-to-date CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces, as well as their energy inventories for the years 2016 and 2017. The newly compiled inventories provide key updates and supplements to our previous emission dataset for 1997-2015. Emissions are calculated based on IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) administrative territorial scope that covers all anthropogenic emissions generated within an administrative boundary due to energy consumption (i.e. energy-related emissions from 17 fossil fuel types) and industrial production (i.e. process-related emissions from cement production). The inventories are constructed for 47 economic sectors consistent with the national economic accounting system. The data can be used as inputs to climate and integrated assessment models and for analysis of emission patterns of China and its regions.

2.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci ; 378(2168): 20190209, 2020 Apr 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32063166

RESUMO

Multiple natural disasters are becoming ever more frequent around the world, with both climate change and rapid urbanization increasing the risk of such disasters in human society. Comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of multiple disasters on the industrial and economic system has become an urgent and essential part of urban recovery and sustainable development. However, there is a lack of studies that focus on assessing the indirect economic impacts resulting from such multiple events, and thereafter providing a common quantitative approach within their assessment. With the concept of flood footprint and input-output theory, this study proposes a more externally oriented methodology (flood footprint model) for indirect flood footprint (IFF) accounting and offers various extensive sensitivity analyses based on a hypothetical two-flood event. Based on the two-flood case, we conclude that the total flood footprint of a multi-flood within a given region is larger than the sum of individual flood footprints and this is the same for the IFF due to the combination effect, while the flood footprint is highly constrained by factors such as occurrence time and physical damage caused by the ensuing disaster. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.

3.
J Environ Manage ; 255: 109892, 2020 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31790871

RESUMO

The Paris Agreement aims to increase global participation in climate change actions, yet attentions are not equally given among countries. The knowledge gap remains in understanding the structure and drivers of the emission in small developing countries. Eighteen countries have failed to ratify their Intended National Determined Contributions (INDCs) as an officially recognized emission target. Among these countries, we chose Kyrgyzstan as a case to construct its emission inventories from both production-based and consumption-based perspectives and to identify the drivers of emission changes using structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The empirical results revealed that CO2 emissions in Kyrgyzstan depicted a wavelike rise from 2007 to 2015, whilst the production structure contributed to 14% of the production-based CO2 emission growth from 2012 to 2015. As a net emission importer, Kyrgyzstan transferred large quantities of CO2 emissions to China and Russia through imports. However, if all manufacturing imports were produced within Kyrgyzstan, the emission would be over five times compared to the current level. It is helpful to reduce global emissions for Kyrgyzstan to import goods from other countries whose carbon intensities are lower. Overall, this study highlights the need to focus on these countries' failure to ratify INDCs while calling the Paris Agreement to provide a better understanding and mitigation mechanism for these small developing countries.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , Carbono , China , Quirguistão , Paris , Federação Russa
4.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 5473, 2019 11 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31784564

RESUMO

Although the physical effects of air pollution on humans are well documented, there may be even greater impacts on the emotional state and health. Surveys have traditionally been used to explore the impact of air pollution on people's subjective well-being (SWB). However, the survey techniques usually take long periods to properly match the air pollution characteristics from monitoring stations to each respondent's SWB at both disaggregated spatial and temporal levels. Here, we used air pollution data to simulate fixed-scene images and psychophysical process to examine the impact from only air pollution on SWB. Findings suggest that under the atmospheric conditions in Beijing, negative emotions occur when PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 µm) increases to approximately 150 AQI (air quality index). The British observers have a stronger negative response under severe air pollution compared with Chinese observers. People from different social groups appear to have different sensitivities to SWB when air quality index exceeds approximately 200 AQI.

5.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 4337, 2019 09 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31554811

RESUMO

Substantial quantities of air pollution and related health impacts are ultimately attributable to household consumption. However, how consumption pattern affects air pollution impacts remains unclear. Here we show, of the 1.08 (0.74-1.42) million premature deaths due to anthropogenic PM2.5 exposure in China in 2012, 20% are related to household direct emissions through fuel use and 24% are related to household indirect emissions embodied in consumption of goods and services. Income is strongly associated with air pollution-related deaths for urban residents in which health impacts are dominated by indirect emissions. Despite a larger and wealthier urban population, the number of deaths related to rural consumption is higher than that related to urban consumption, largely due to direct emissions from solid fuel combustion in rural China. Our results provide quantitative insight to consumption-based accounting of air pollution and related deaths and may inform more effective and equitable clean air policies in China.


Assuntos
Poluição do Ar/análise , Exposição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade Prematura/tendências , Saúde da População Rural/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Saúde da População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Asiático/estatística & dados numéricos , China , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Política Ambiental/legislação & jurisprudência , Política Ambiental/tendências , Características da Família , Humanos , Mortalidade Prematura/etnologia , Material Particulado/análise
6.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 116(35): 17193-17200, 2019 Aug 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31405979

RESUMO

In recent years, air pollution has caused more than 1 million deaths per year in China, making it a major focus of public health efforts. However, future climate change may exacerbate such human health impacts by increasing the frequency and duration of weather conditions that enhance air pollution exposure. Here, we use a combination of climate, air quality, and epidemiological models to assess future air pollution deaths in a changing climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). We find that, assuming pollution emissions and population are held constant at current levels, climate change would adversely affect future air quality for >85% of China's population (∼55% of land area) by the middle of the century, and would increase by 3% and 4% the population-weighted average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, respectively. As a result, we estimate an additional 12,100 and 8,900 Chinese (95% confidence interval: 10,300 to 13,800 and 2,300 to 14,700, respectively) will die per year from PM2.5 and ozone exposure, respectively. The important underlying climate mechanisms are changes in extreme conditions such as atmospheric stagnation and heat waves (contributing 39% and 6%, respectively, to the increase in mortality). Additionally, greater vulnerability of China's aging population will further increase the estimated deaths from PM2.5 and ozone in 2050 by factors of 1 and 3, respectively. Our results indicate that climate change and more intense extremes are likely to increase the risk of severe pollution events in China. Managing air quality in China in a changing climate will thus become more challenging.

7.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 116(34): 16773-16780, 2019 Aug 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31383761

RESUMO

In addition to many recent actions taken to reduce emissions from energy production, industry, and transportation, a new campaign substituting residential solid fuels with electricity or natural gas has been launched in Beijing, Tianjin, and 26 other municipalities in northern China, aiming at solving severe ambient air pollution in the region. Quantitative analysis shows that the campaign can accelerate residential energy transition significantly, and if the planned target can be achieved, more than 60% of households are projected to remove solid fuels by 2021, compared with fewer than 20% without the campaign. Emissions of major air pollutants will be reduced substantially. With 60% substitution realized, emission of primary PM2.5 and contribution to ambient PM2.5 concentration in 2021 are projected to be 30% and 41% of those without the campaign. With 60% substitution, average indoor PM2.5 concentrations in living rooms in winter are projected to be reduced from 209 (190 to 230) µg/m3 to 125 (99 to 150) µg/m3 The population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations can be reduced from 140 µg/m3 in 2014 to 78 µg/m3 or 61 µg/m3 in 2021 given that 60% or 100% substitution can be accomplished. Although the original focus of the campaign was to address ambient air quality, exposure reduction comes more from improved indoor air quality because ∼90% of daily exposure of the rural population is attributable to indoor air pollution. Women benefit more than men.

8.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 3405, 2019 07 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31363099

RESUMO

Rural residential energy consumption in China is experiencing a rapid transition towards clean energy, nevertheless, solid fuel combustion remains an important emission source. Here we quantitatively evaluate the contribution of rural residential emissions to PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) and the impacts on health and climate. The clean energy transitions result in remarkable reductions in the contributions to ambient PM2.5, avoiding 130,000 (90,000-160,000) premature deaths associated with PM2.5 exposure. The climate forcing associated with this sector declines from 0.057 ± 0.016 W/m2 in 1992 to 0.031 ± 0.008 W/m2 in 2012. Despite this, the large remaining quantities of solid fuels still contributed 14 ± 10 µg/m3 to population-weighted PM2.5 in 2012, which comprises 21 ± 14% of the overall population-weighted PM2.5 from all sources. Rural residential emissions affect not only rural but urban air quality, and the impacts are highly seasonal and location dependent.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar em Ambientes Fechados/análise , Fontes Geradoras de Energia , Poluição do Ar , Características da Família , Habitação/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Material Particulado/análise , Saúde da População Rural/estatística & dados numéricos
9.
J Environ Manage ; 249: 109393, 2019 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31450200

RESUMO

The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol came to an end in 2012 and more developing countries began to participate in the new phase of world carbon emission reduction. Kazakhstan is an important energy export country and a pivot of the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI). Despite its emissions are relatively small compared with huge emitters such as China and the US, Kazakhstan also faces great pressure in terms of CO2 emission reduction and green development. Accurately accounting CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan from both production and consumption perspectives is the first step for further emissions control actions. This paper constructs production-based CO2 emission inventories for Kazakhstan from 2012 to 2016, and then further analyses the demand-driven emissions within the domestic market and international trade (exports and imports) using environmentally extended input-output analysis. The production-based inventory includes 43 energy products and 30 sectors to provide detailed data for CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan. The consumption-based accounting results showed that certain sectors like construction drive more emissions and that the fuel consumption in different sectors varies. Furthermore, Russia and China are major consumers of Kazakhstan's energy and associated emissions, with the construction sector playing the most important role in it. The results suggested that both technology and policy actions should be taken into account to reduce CO2 emissions and that the BRI is also a good chance for Kazakhstan to develop a "Green Economy".


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , Comércio , China , Internacionalidade , Cazaquistão
10.
Nat Commun ; 10(1): 3281, 2019 07 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31337754

RESUMO

Black carbon (BC) aerosols constitute unique and important anthropogenic climate forcers that potentially accelerate the retreat of glaciers over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau (HTP). Here we show that a large amount of BC emissions produced in India and China-a region of BC emissions  to which the HTP is more vulnerable compared with other regions-are related to the consumption of goods and services in the USA and Europe through international trade. These processes lead to a virtual transport pathway of BC from distant regions to the HTP glaciers. From a consumption perspective, the contribution from India to the HTP glaciers shows a rapid increasing trend while the contributions from the USA, Europe, and China decreased over the last decade. International trade aggravates the BC pollution over the HTP glaciers and may cause significant climate change there. Global efforts toward reducing the cascading of BC emissions to Asia, especially the Indian subcontinent, are urgently needed.

11.
Water Res ; 163: 114848, 2019 Oct 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31352242

RESUMO

At times, certain areas of China suffering from water shortages. While China's government is spurring innovation and infrastructure to help head off such problems, it may be that some water conservation could help as well. It is well-known that water is embodied in traded goods-so called "virtual water trade" (VWT). In China, it seems that many water-poor areas are perversely engaged in VWT. Further, China is engaging in the global trend of fragmentation in production, even as an interregional phenomenon. Perhaps something could be learned about conserving or reducing VWT, if we knew where and how it is practiced. Given some proximate causes, perhaps viable policies could be formulated. To this end, we employ China's multiregional input-output tables straddling two periods to trace the trade of a given region's three types of goods: local final goods, local intermediate goods, and goods that shipped to other regions and countries. We find that goods traded interregionally in China in 2012 embodied 30.4% of all water used nationwide. Nationwide, water use increased substantially over 2007-2012 due to greater shipment volumes of water-intensive products. In fact, as suspected, the rise in value chain-related trade became a major contributing factor. Coastal areas tended to be net receivers of VWT from interior provinces, although reasons differed, e.g. Shanghai received more to fulfill final demand (67.8% of net inflow) and Zhejiang for value-chain related trade (40.2% of net inflow). In sum, the variety of our findings reveals an urgent need to consider trade types and water scarcity when developing water resource allocation and conservation policies.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Hídricos , Recursos Hídricos , China , Água , Abastecimento de Água
12.
Proc Math Phys Eng Sci ; 475(2224): 20180871, 2019 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31105460

RESUMO

In this paper we focus on the 'Christmas' flood in York (UK), 2015. The case is special in the sense that little infrastructure was lost or damaged, while a single industry (IT services) was completely knocked out for a limited time. Due to these characteristics, the standard modelling techniques are no longer appropriate. An alternative option is provided by the Hypothetical Extraction Method, or HEM. However, there are restrictions in using the HEM, one being that no realistic substitutes exist for inputs from industries that were affected. In this paper we discuss these restrictions and show that the HEM performs well in the York flood case. In the empirical part of this paper we show that a three-day shutdown of the IT services caused a £3.24 m to £4.23 m loss in York, which is equivalent to 10% of the three days' average GVA (Gross Value Added) of York city. The services sector (excluding IT services) sustained the greatest loss at £0.80 m, where the business support industry which was predominantly hit. This study is the first to apply a HEM in this type of flood on a daily basis.

13.
Environ Sci Technol ; 53(10): 5545-5558, 2019 05 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31042367

RESUMO

Carbon accounting results for the same city can differ due to differences in protocols, methods, and data sources. A critical review of these differences and the connection among them can help to bridge our knowledge between university-based researchers and protocol practitioners in accounting and taking further mitigation actions. The purpose of this study is to provide a review of published research and protocols related to city carbon accounting, paying attention to both their science and practical actions. To begin with, the most cited articles in this field are identified and analyzed by employing a citation network analysis to illustrate the development of city-level carbon accounting from three perspectives. We also reveal the relationship between research methods and accounting protocols. Furthermore, a timeline of relevant organizations, protocols, and projects is provided to demonstrate the applications of city carbon accounting in practice. The citation networks indicate that the field is dominated by pure-geographic production-based and community infrastructure-based accounting; however, emerging models that combine economic system analysis from a consumption-based perspective are leading to new trends in the field. The emissions accounted for by various research methods consist essentially of the scope 1-3, as defined in accounting protocols. The latest accounting protocols include consumption-based accounting, but most cities still limit their accounting and reporting from pure-geographic production-based and community infrastructure-based perspectives. In conclusion, we argue that protocol practitioners require support in conducting carbon accounting, so as to explore the potential in mitigation and adaptation from a number of perspectives. This should also be a priority for future studies.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , Carbono , Cidades
14.
Sci Data ; 6: 190027, 2019 02 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30806637

RESUMO

As the centre of human activity and being under the threat of climate change, cities are considered to be major components in the implementation of climate change mitigation and CO2 emission reduction strategies. Inventories of cities' emissions serve as the foundation for the analysis of emissions characteristics and policymaking. China is the world's top energy consumer and CO2 emitter, and it is facing great potential harm from climate change. Consequently, China is taking increasing responsibility in the fight against global climate change. Many energy/emissions control policies have been implemented in China, most of which are designed at the national level. However, cities are at different stages of industrialization and have distinct development pathways; they need specific control policies designed based on their current emissions characteristics. This study is the first to construct emissions inventories for 182 Chinese cities. The inventories are constructed using 17 fossil fuels and 47 socioeconomic sectors. These city-level emissions inventories have a scope and format consistent with China's national/provincial inventories. Some socioeconomic data of the cities, such as GDP, population, industrial structures, are included in the datasets as well. The dataset provides transparent, accurate, complete, comparable, and verifiable data support for further city-level emissions studies and low-carbon/sustainable development policy design. The dataset also offers insights for other countries by providing an emissions accounting method with limited data.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , China , Cidades , Mudança Climática , Humanos , Fatores Socioeconômicos
15.
J Environ Manage ; 231: 989-995, 2019 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30602260

RESUMO

China's household energy demands' life-cycle water uses from 2002 to 2015 are quantified with an Input-Output analysis disaggregating rural and urban impacts. 9.73 and 1.60 km3 of water was withdrawn and consumed respectively in the life cycle of Chinese household energy demands in 2015, which was dominated by power and heat uses. An average urbanite's household energy uses, including coal, gas, petroleum products, power and heat, require about four times of life-cycle water uses than its rural counterpart. Among all upstream sectors, while agricultural sectors accounted for the largest shares for all energy uses, oil and gas extraction made significant contributions to petroleum products and gas consumption. A Structural Decomposition Analysis is conducted to disentangle the impacts of four driving factors, i.e. population, demand, economic structure and technology. Population change reduced energy consumption's life-cycle water use for rural households but increased that for urban households. Each economic sector's water intensity decreases, which represent technology advancement, played the dominant role curbing household energy consumption's life-cycle water uses. While power and heat dominates the household energy use profile, urbanization is accompanied by household consumption shifting from coal to gas and petroleum products. In order to reduce household energy consumption's impacts and reliance on water resources, it is imperative to reduce energy production's water use by adopting water-saving technologies, such as air cooling, as well as to reduce upstream sectors' water intensities, such as by promoting drip irrigation.


Assuntos
Carvão Mineral , Água , China , Características da Família , Humanos , Urbanização
17.
Nat Plants ; 4(11): 964-973, 2018 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30323183

RESUMO

Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in the global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption (for example, -32% in Argentina) and increases in beer prices (for example, +193% in Ireland). Although not the most concerning impact of future climate change, climate-related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer.


Assuntos
Cerveja/provisão & distribução , Secas , Calor Extremo , Mudança Climática , Produção Agrícola , Hordeum/crescimento & desenvolvimento
18.
Nat Commun ; 9(1): 3581, 2018 09 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30181616

RESUMO

Traditional consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounting attributed the gap between consumption-based and production-based emissions to international trade. Yet few attempts have analyzed the temporal deviation between current emissions and future consumption, which can be explained through changes in capital stock. Here we develop a dynamic model to incorporate capital stock change in consumption-based accounting. The new model is applied using global data for 1995-2009. Our results show that global emissions embodied in consumption determined by the new model are smaller than those obtained from the traditional model. The emissions embodied in global capital stock increased steadily during the period. However, capital plays very different roles in shaping consumption-based emissions for economies with different development characteristics. As a result, the dynamic model yields similar consumption-based emissions estimation for many developed countries comparing with the traditional model, but it highlights the dynamics of fast-developing countries.


Assuntos
Países em Desenvolvimento , Gases de Efeito Estufa , Modelos Teóricos , Comércio , Países em Desenvolvimento/economia , Economia
19.
Sci Data ; 5: 180155, 2018 08 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30084849

RESUMO

Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) models are one of the most widely used approaches to analyse the economic interdependence between different regions. We utilised the latest socioeconomic datasets to compile a Chinese MRIO table for 2012 based on the modified gravity model. The MRIO table provides inter-regional and inter-sectoral economic flows among 30 economic sectors in China's 30 regions for 2012. This is the first MRIO table to reflect China's economic development pattern after the 2008 global financial crisis. The Chinese MRIO table can be used to analyse the production and consumption structure of provincial economies and the inter-regional trade pattern within China, as well as function as a tool for both national and regional economic planning. The Chinese MRIO table also provides a foundation for extensive research on environmental impacts by linking industrial and regional output to energy use, carbon emissions, environmental pollutants, and satellite accounts.

20.
Environ Sci Technol ; 52(18): 10416-10425, 2018 09 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30118598

RESUMO

Although PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm) in the air originates from emissions, its concentrations are often affected by confounding meteorological effects. Therefore, direct comparisons of PM2.5 concentrations made across two periods, which are commonly used by environmental protection administrations to measure the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, can be misleading. Here, we developed a two-step method to distinguish the significance of emissions and meteorological factors and assess the effectiveness of emission mitigation efforts. We modeled ambient PM2.5 concentrations from 1980 to 2014 based on three conditional scenarios: realistic conditions, fixed emissions, and fixed meteorology. The differences found between the model outputs were analyzed to quantify the relative contributions of emissions and meteorological factors. Emission-related gridded PM2.5 concentrations excluding the meteorological effects were predicted using multivariate regression models, whereas meteorological confounding effects on PM2.5 fluctuations were characterized by probabilistic functions. When the regression models and probabilistic functions were combined, fluctuations in the PM2.5 concentrations induced by emissions and meteorological factors were quantified for all model grid cells and regions. The method was then applied to assess the historical and future trends of PM2.5 concentrations and potential fluctuations on global, national, and city scales. The proposed method may thus be used to assess the effectiveness of mitigation actions.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Cidades , Monitoramento Ambiental , Conceitos Meteorológicos , Material Particulado
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