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1.
Chaos ; 31(2): 023142, 2021 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33653035

RESUMO

Medical practice in the intensive care unit is based on the assumption that physiological systems such as the human glucose-insulin system are predictable. We demonstrate that delay within the glucose-insulin system can induce sustained temporal chaos, rendering the system unpredictable. Specifically, we exhibit such chaos for the ultradian glucose-insulin model. This well-validated, finite-dimensional model represents feedback delay as a three-stage filter. Using the theory of rank one maps from smooth dynamical systems, we precisely explain the nature of the resulting delay-induced uncertainty (DIU). We develop a framework one may use to diagnose DIU in a general oscillatory dynamical system. For infinite-dimensional delay systems, no analog of the theory of rank one maps exists. Nevertheless, we show that the geometric principles encoded in our DIU framework apply to such systems by exhibiting sustained temporal chaos for a linear shear flow. Our results are potentially broadly applicable because delay is ubiquitous throughout mathematical physiology.

2.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33554609

RESUMO

Background - Type 2 diabetes (DM2) is one of the most common chronic disorders worldwide and is an important cause of cardiovascular disease. Studies investigating the risk of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias in diabetic patients taking different oral diabetes medications are sparse. Methods - We used IBM MarketScan® Medicare Supplemental Database to examine the risk of arrhythmias for patients on different oral diabetes medications by propensity score matching. Results - We found that patients on metformin monotherapy had significantly reduced risk of atrial arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation, compared to monotherapy with DPP4 or TZD medications. Patients on metformin monotherapy had significantly reduced risk of atrial arrhythmias, ventricular arrhythmias, and bradycardia compared to monotherapy with sulfonylureas. Combination therapy with sulfonylureas and metformin had an increased risk of atrial arrhythmias compared to some other combinations. Conclusions - Different oral diabetes medications have significantly different long-term risk of arrhythmia. Specifically, metformin is associated with reduced risk of atrial fibrillation and ventricular arrhythmias compared to sulfonylureas.

3.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33585936

RESUMO

Clinicians often attribute much of their burnout experience to use of the electronic health record, the adoption of which was greatly accelerated by the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act of 2009. That same year, AMIA's Policy Meeting focused on possible unintended consequences associated with rapid implementation of electronic health records, generating 17 potential consequences and 15 recommendations to address them. At the 2020 annual meeting of the American College of Medical Informatics (ACMI), ACMI fellows participated in a modified Delphi process to assess the accuracy of the 2009 predictions and the response to the recommendations. Among the findings, the fellows concluded that the degree of clinician burnout and its contributing factors, such as increased documentation requirements, were significantly underestimated. Conversely, problems related to identify theft and fraud were overestimated. Only 3 of the 15 recommendations were adjudged more than half-addressed.

4.
Lancet Digit Health ; 3(2): e98-e114, 2021 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33342753

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have been postulated to affect susceptibility to COVID-19. Observational studies so far have lacked rigorous ascertainment adjustment and international generalisability. We aimed to determine whether use of ACEIs or ARBs is associated with an increased susceptibility to COVID-19 in patients with hypertension. METHODS: In this international, open science, cohort analysis, we used electronic health records from Spain (Information Systems for Research in Primary Care [SIDIAP]) and the USA (Columbia University Irving Medical Center data warehouse [CUIMC] and Department of Veterans Affairs Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership [VA-OMOP]) to identify patients aged 18 years or older with at least one prescription for ACEIs and ARBs (target cohort) or calcium channel blockers (CCBs) and thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics (THZs; comparator cohort) between Nov 1, 2019, and Jan 31, 2020. Users were defined separately as receiving either monotherapy with these four drug classes, or monotherapy or combination therapy (combination use) with other antihypertensive medications. We assessed four outcomes: COVID-19 diagnosis; hospital admission with COVID-19; hospital admission with pneumonia; and hospital admission with pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury, or sepsis. We built large-scale propensity score methods derived through a data-driven approach and negative control experiments across ten pairwise comparisons, with results meta-analysed to generate 1280 study effects. For each study effect, we did negative control outcome experiments using a possible 123 controls identified through a data-rich algorithm. This process used a set of predefined baseline patient characteristics to provide the most accurate prediction of treatment and balance among patient cohorts across characteristics. The study is registered with the EU Post-Authorisation Studies register, EUPAS35296. FINDINGS: Among 1 355 349 antihypertensive users (363 785 ACEI or ARB monotherapy users, 248 915 CCB or THZ monotherapy users, 711 799 ACEI or ARB combination users, and 473 076 CCB or THZ combination users) included in analyses, no association was observed between COVID-19 diagnosis and exposure to ACEI or ARB monotherapy versus CCB or THZ monotherapy (calibrated hazard ratio [HR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·84-1·14) or combination use exposure (1·01, 0·90-1·15). ACEIs alone similarly showed no relative risk difference when compared with CCB or THZ monotherapy (HR 0·91, 95% CI 0·68-1·21; with heterogeneity of >40%) or combination use (0·95, 0·83-1·07). Directly comparing ACEIs with ARBs demonstrated a moderately lower risk with ACEIs, which was significant with combination use (HR 0·88, 95% CI 0·79-0·99) and non-significant for monotherapy (0·85, 0·69-1·05). We observed no significant difference between drug classes for risk of hospital admission with COVID-19, hospital admission with pneumonia, or hospital admission with pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury, or sepsis across all comparisons. INTERPRETATION: No clinically significant increased risk of COVID-19 diagnosis or hospital admission-related outcomes associated with ACEI or ARB use was observed, suggesting users should not discontinue or change their treatment to decrease their risk of COVID-19. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Janssen Research & Development, IQVIA, South Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare Republic, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and European Health Data and Evidence Network.

5.
medRxiv ; 2020 Nov 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33269355

RESUMO

Objective: Patients with autoimmune diseases were advised to shield to avoid COVID-19, but information on their prognosis is lacking. We characterised 30-day outcomes and mortality after hospitalisation with COVID-19 among patients with prevalent autoimmune diseases, and compared outcomes after hospital admissions among similar patients with seasonal influenza. Design: Multinational network cohort study. Setting: Electronic health records data from Columbia University Irving Medical Center (CUIMC) (NYC, United States [US]), Optum [US], Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) (US), Information System for Research in Primary Care-Hospitalisation Linked Data (SIDIAP-H) (Spain), and claims data from IQVIA Open Claims (US) and Health Insurance and Review Assessment (HIRA) (South Korea). Participants: All patients with prevalent autoimmune diseases, diagnosed and/or hospitalised between January and June 2020 with COVID-19, and similar patients hospitalised with influenza in 2017-2018 were included. Main outcome measures: 30-day complications during hospitalisation and death. Results: We studied 133,589 patients diagnosed and 48,418 hospitalised with COVID-19 with prevalent autoimmune diseases. The majority of participants were female (60.5% to 65.9%) and aged ≥50 years. The most prevalent autoimmune conditions were psoriasis (3.5 to 32.5%), rheumatoid arthritis (3.9 to 18.9%), and vasculitis (3.3 to 17.6%). Amongst hospitalised patients, Type 1 diabetes was the most common autoimmune condition (4.8% to 7.5%) in US databases, rheumatoid arthritis in HIRA (18.9%), and psoriasis in SIDIAP-H (26.4%).Compared to 70,660 hospitalised with influenza, those admitted with COVID-19 had more respiratory complications including pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome, and higher 30-day mortality (2.2% to 4.3% versus 6.3% to 24.6%). Conclusions: Patients with autoimmune diseases had high rates of respiratory complications and 30-day mortality following a hospitalization with COVID-19. Compared to influenza, COVID-19 is a more severe disease, leading to more complications and higher mortality. Future studies should investigate predictors of poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients with autoimmune diseases. What is already known about this topic: Patients with autoimmune conditions may be at increased risk of COVID-19 infection andcomplications.There is a paucity of evidence characterising the outcomes of hospitalised COVID-19 patients with prevalent autoimmune conditions. What this study adds: Most people with autoimmune diseases who required hospitalisation for COVID-19 were women, aged 50 years or older, and had substantial previous comorbidities.Patients who were hospitalised with COVID-19 and had prevalent autoimmune diseases had higher prevalence of hypertension, chronic kidney disease, heart disease, and Type 2 diabetes as compared to those with prevalent autoimmune diseases who were diagnosed with COVID-19.A variable proportion of 6% to 25% across data sources died within one month of hospitalisation with COVID-19 and prevalent autoimmune diseases.For people with autoimmune diseases, COVID-19 hospitalisation was associated with worse outcomes and 30-day mortality compared to admission with influenza in the 2017-2018 season.

6.
medRxiv ; 2020 Nov 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33269356

RESUMO

Objective: To estimate the proportion of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who undergo dialysis, tracheostomy, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Design: A network cohort study. Setting: Six databases from the United States containing routinely-collected patient data: HealthVerity, Premier, IQVIA Open Claims, Optum EHR, Optum SES, and VA-OMOP. Patients: Patients hospitalized with a clinical diagnosis or a positive test result for COVID-19. Interventions: Dialysis, tracheostomy, and ECMO. Measurements and Main Results: 240,392 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were included (22,887 from HealthVerity, 139,971 from IQVIA Open Claims, 29,061 from Optum EHR, 4,336 from OPTUM SES, 36,019 from Premier, and 8,118 from VA-OMOP). Across the six databases, 9,703 (4.04% [95% CI: 3.96% to 4.11%]) patients received dialysis, 1,681 (0.70% [0.67% to 0.73%]) had a tracheostomy, and 398 (0.17% [95% CI: 0.15% to 0.18%]) patients underwent ECMO over the 30 days following hospitalization. Use of ECMO was generally concentrated among patients who were younger, male, and with fewer comorbidities except for obesity. Tracheostomy was used for a similar proportion of patients regardless of age, sex, or comorbidity. While dialysis was used for a similar proportion among younger and older patients, it was more frequent among male patients and among those with chronic kidney disease. Conclusion: Use of dialysis among those hospitalized with COVID-19 is high at around 4%. Although less than one percent of patients undergo tracheostomy and ECMO, the absolute numbers of patients who have undergone these interventions is substantial and can be expected to continue grow given the continuing spread of the COVID-19.

7.
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak ; 20(Suppl 10): 296, 2020 12 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33319713

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Summarization networks are compact summaries of ontologies. The "Big Picture" view offered by summarization networks enables to identify sets of concepts that are more likely to have errors than control concepts. For ontologies that have outgoing lateral relationships, we have developed the "partial-area taxonomy" summarization network. Prior research has identified one kind of outlier concepts, concepts of small partials-areas within partial-area taxonomies. Previously we have shown that the small partial-area technique works successfully for four ontologies (or their hierarchies). METHODS: To improve the Quality Assurance (QA) scalability, a family-based QA framework, where one QA technique is potentially applicable to a whole family of ontologies with similar structural features, was developed. The 373 ontologies hosted at the NCBO BioPortal in 2015 were classified into a collection of families based on structural features. A meta-ontology represents this family collection, including one family of ontologies having outgoing lateral relationships. The process of updating the current meta-ontology is described. To conclude that one QA technique is applicable for at least half of the members for a family F, this technique should be demonstrated as successful for six out of six ontologies in F. We describe a hypothesis setting the condition required for a technique to be successful for a given ontology. The process of a study to demonstrate such success is described. This paper intends to prove the scalability of the small partial-area technique. RESULTS: We first updated the meta-ontology classifying 566 BioPortal ontologies. There were 371 ontologies in the family with outgoing lateral relationships. We demonstrated the success of the small partial-area technique for two ontology hierarchies which belong to this family, SNOMED CT's Specimen hierarchy and NCIt's Gene hierarchy. Together with the four previous ontologies from the same family, we fulfilled the "six out of six" condition required to show the scalability for the whole family. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that the small partial-area technique can be potentially successful for the family of ontologies with outgoing lateral relationships in BioPortal, thus improve the scalability of this QA technique.


Assuntos
Ontologias Biológicas , Humanos , Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine
8.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33367863

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Concern has been raised in the rheumatology community regarding recent regulatory warnings that HCQ used in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic could cause acute psychiatric events. We aimed to study whether there is risk of incident depression, suicidal ideation or psychosis associated with HCQ as used for RA. METHODS: We performed a new-user cohort study using claims and electronic medical records from 10 sources and 3 countries (Germany, UK and USA). RA patients ≥18 years of age and initiating HCQ were compared with those initiating SSZ (active comparator) and followed up in the short (30 days) and long term (on treatment). Study outcomes included depression, suicide/suicidal ideation and hospitalization for psychosis. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate database-specific calibrated hazard ratios (HRs), with estimates pooled where I2 <40%. RESULTS: A total of 918 144 and 290 383 users of HCQ and SSZ, respectively, were included. No consistent risk of psychiatric events was observed with short-term HCQ (compared with SSZ) use, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.96 (95% CI 0.79, 1.16) for depression, 0.94 (95% CI 0.49, 1.77) for suicide/suicidal ideation and 1.03 (95% CI 0.66, 1.60) for psychosis. No consistent long-term risk was seen, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.94 (95% CI 0.71, 1.26) for depression, 0.77 (95% CI 0.56, 1.07) for suicide/suicidal ideation and 0.99 (95% CI 0.72, 1.35) for psychosis. CONCLUSION: HCQ as used to treat RA does not appear to increase the risk of depression, suicide/suicidal ideation or psychosis compared with SSZ. No effects were seen in the short or long term. Use at a higher dose or for different indications needs further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered with EU PAS (reference no. EUPAS34497; http://www.encepp.eu/encepp/viewResource.htm? id=34498). The full study protocol and analysis source code can be found at https://github.com/ohdsi-studies/Covid19EstimationHydroxychloroquine2.

9.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33164065

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Real-world data (RWD), defined as routinely collected healthcare data, can be a potential catalyst for addressing challenges faced in clinical trials. We performed a scoping review of database-specific RWD applications within clinical trial contexts, synthesizing prominent uses and themes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Querying 3 biomedical literature databases, research articles using electronic health records, administrative claims databases, or clinical registries either within a clinical trial or in tandem with methodology related to clinical trials were included. Articles were required to use at least 1 US RWD source. All abstract screening, full-text screening, and data extraction was performed by 1 reviewer. Two reviewers independently verified all decisions. RESULTS: Of 2020 screened articles, 89 qualified: 59 articles used electronic health records, 29 used administrative claims, and 26 used registries. Our synthesis was driven by the general life cycle of a clinical trial, culminating into 3 major themes: trial process tasks (51 articles); dissemination strategies (6); and generalizability assessments (34). Despite a diverse set of diseases studied, <10% of trials using RWD for trial process tasks evaluated medications or procedures (5/51). All articles highlighted data-related challenges, such as missing values. DISCUSSION: Database-specific RWD have been occasionally leveraged for various clinical trial tasks. We observed underuse of RWD within conducted medication or procedure trials, though it is subject to the confounder of implicit report of RWD use. CONCLUSION: Enhanced incorporation of RWD should be further explored for medication or procedure trials, including better understanding of how to handle related data quality issues to facilitate RWD use.

10.
medRxiv ; 2020 Oct 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33140068

RESUMO

Early identification of symptoms and comorbidities most predictive of COVID-19 is critical to identify infection, guide policies to effectively contain the pandemic, and improve health systems' response. Here, we characterised socio-demographics and comorbidity in 3,316,107persons tested and 219,072 persons tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 since January 2020, and their key health outcomes in the month following the first positive test. Routine care data from primary care electronic health records (EHR) from Spain, hospital EHR from the United States (US), and claims data from South Korea and the US were used. The majority of study participants were women aged 18-65 years old. Positive/tested ratio varied greatly geographically (2.2:100 to 31.2:100) and over time (from 50:100 in February-April to 6.8:100 in May-June). Fever, cough and dyspnoea were the most common symptoms at presentation. Between 4%-38% required admission and 1-10.5% died within a month from their first positive test. Observed disparity in testing practices led to variable baseline characteristics and outcomes, both nationally (US) and internationally. Our findings highlight the importance of large scale characterization of COVID-19 international cohorts to inform planning and resource allocation including testing as countries face a second wave.

11.
JAMA ; 324(16): 1640-1650, 2020 10 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33107944

RESUMO

Importance: Current guidelines recommend ticagrelor as the preferred P2Y12 platelet inhibitor for patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), primarily based on a single large randomized clinical trial. The benefits and risks associated with ticagrelor vs clopidogrel in routine practice merits attention. Objective: To determine the association of ticagrelor vs clopidogrel with ischemic and hemorrhagic events in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ACS in clinical practice. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study of patients with ACS who underwent PCI and received ticagrelor or clopidogrel was conducted using 2 United States electronic health record-based databases and 1 nationwide South Korean database from November 2011 to March 2019. Patients were matched using a large-scale propensity score algorithm, and the date of final follow-up was March 2019. Exposures: Ticagrelor vs clopidogrel. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was net adverse clinical events (NACE) at 12 months, composed of ischemic events (recurrent myocardial infarction, revascularization, or ischemic stroke) and hemorrhagic events (hemorrhagic stroke or gastrointestinal bleeding). Secondary outcomes included NACE or mortality, all-cause mortality, ischemic events, hemorrhagic events, individual components of the primary outcome, and dyspnea at 12 months. The database-level hazard ratios (HRs) were pooled to calculate summary HRs by random-effects meta-analysis. Results: After propensity score matching among 31 290 propensity-matched pairs (median age group, 60-64 years; 29.3% women), 95.5% of patients took aspirin together with ticagrelor or clopidogrel. The 1-year risk of NACE was not significantly different between ticagrelor and clopidogrel (15.1% [3484/23 116 person-years] vs 14.6% [3290/22 587 person-years]; summary HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.00-1.10]; P = .06). There was also no significant difference in the risk of all-cause mortality (2.0% for ticagrelor vs 2.1% for clopidogrel; summary HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.81-1.16]; P = .74) or ischemic events (13.5% for ticagrelor vs 13.4% for clopidogrel; summary HR, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.98-1.08]; P = .32). The risks of hemorrhagic events (2.1% for ticagrelor vs 1.6% for clopidogrel; summary HR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.13-1.61]; P = .001) and dyspnea (27.3% for ticagrelor vs 22.6% for clopidogrel; summary HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.17-1.26]; P < .001) were significantly higher in the ticagrelor group. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with ACS who underwent PCI in routine clinical practice, ticagrelor, compared with clopidogrel, was not associated with significant difference in the risk of NACE at 12 months. Because the possibility of unmeasured confounders cannot be excluded, further research is needed to determine whether ticagrelor is more effective than clopidogrel in this setting.


Assuntos
Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/cirurgia , Clopidogrel/efeitos adversos , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea , Antagonistas do Receptor Purinérgico P2Y/efeitos adversos , Ticagrelor/efeitos adversos , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/mortalidade , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Algoritmos , Aspirina/administração & dosagem , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Causas de Morte , Clopidogrel/administração & dosagem , Bases de Dados Factuais/estatística & dados numéricos , Dispneia/induzido quimicamente , Feminino , Hemorragia/induzido quimicamente , Humanos , Isquemia/induzido quimicamente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infarto do Miocárdio/epidemiologia , Metanálise em Rede , Pontuação de Propensão , Antagonistas do Receptor Purinérgico P2Y/administração & dosagem , Recidiva , República da Coreia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Ticagrelor/administração & dosagem , Estados Unidos
13.
J Am Med Inform Assoc ; 27(12): 1968-1976, 2020 Dec 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33120430

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: A growing body of observational data enabled its secondary use to facilitate clinical care for complex cases not covered by the existing evidence. We conducted a scoping review to characterize clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) that generate new knowledge to provide guidance for such cases in real time. MATERIALS AND METHODS: PubMed, Embase, ProQuest, and IEEE Xplore were searched up to May 2020. The abstracts were screened by 2 reviewers. Full texts of the relevant articles were reviewed by the first author and approved by the second reviewer, accompanied by the screening of articles' references. The details of design, implementation and evaluation of included CDSSs were extracted. RESULTS: Our search returned 3427 articles, 53 of which describing 25 CDSSs were selected. We identified 8 expert-based and 17 data-driven tools. Sixteen (64%) tools were developed in the United States, with the others mostly in Europe. Most of the tools (n = 16, 64%) were implemented in 1 site, with only 5 being actively used in clinical practice. Patient or quality outcomes were assessed for 3 (18%) CDSSs, 4 (16%) underwent user acceptance or usage testing and 7 (28%) functional testing. CONCLUSIONS: We found a number of CDSSs that generate new knowledge, although only 1 addressed confounding and bias. Overall, the tools lacked demonstration of their utility. Improvement in clinical and quality outcomes were shown only for a few CDSSs, while the benefits of the others remain unclear. This review suggests a need for a further testing of such CDSSs and, if appropriate, their dissemination.

14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33114631

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Spatial epidemiology is used to evaluate geographical variations and disparities in health outcomes; however, constructing geographic statistical models requires a labor-intensive process that limits the overall utility. We developed an open-source software for spatial epidemiological analysis and demonstrated its applicability and quality. METHODS: Based on standardized geocode and observational health data, the Application of Epidemiological Geographic Information System (AEGIS) provides two spatial analysis methods: disease mapping and detecting clustered medical conditions and outcomes. The AEGIS assesses the geographical distribution of incidences and health outcomes in Korea and the United States, specifically incidence of cancers and their mortality rates, endemic malarial areas, and heart diseases (only the United States). RESULTS: The AEGIS-generated spatial distribution of incident cancer in Korea was consistent with previous reports. The incidence of liver cancer in women with the highest Moran's I (0.44; p < 0.001) was 17.4 (10.3-26.9). The malarial endemic cluster was identified in Paju-si, Korea (p < 0.001). When the AEGIS was applied to the database of the United States, a heart disease cluster was appropriately identified (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: As an open-source, cross-country, spatial analytics solution, AEGIS may globally assess the differences in geographical distribution of health outcomes through the use of standardized geocode and observational health databases.

15.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 5009, 2020 10 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33024121

RESUMO

Comorbid conditions appear to be common among individuals hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but estimates of prevalence vary and little is known about the prior medication use of patients. Here, we describe the characteristics of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 and compare them with influenza patients. We include 34,128 (US: 8362, South Korea: 7341, Spain: 18,425) COVID-19 patients, summarising between 4811 and 11,643 unique aggregate characteristics. COVID-19 patients have been majority male in the US and Spain, but predominantly female in South Korea. Age profiles vary across data sources. Compared to 84,585 individuals hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19, COVID-19 patients have more typically been male, younger, and with fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. While protecting groups vulnerable to influenza is likely a useful starting point in the response to COVID-19, strategies will likely need to be broadened to reflect the particular characteristics of individuals being hospitalised with COVID-19.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Hospitalização , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos de Coortes , Comorbidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/tratamento farmacológico , Feminino , Humanos , Influenza Humana/tratamento farmacológico , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pneumonia Viral/tratamento farmacológico , Prevalência , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Fatores Sexuais , Espanha/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
16.
Mayo Clin Proc ; 95(10): 2099-2109, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33012341

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To study whether combining vital signs and electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis can improve early prognostication. METHODS: This study analyzed 1258 adults with coronavirus disease 2019 who were seen at three hospitals in New York in March and April 2020. Electrocardiograms at presentation to the emergency department were systematically read by electrophysiologists. The primary outcome was a composite of mechanical ventilation or death 48 hours from diagnosis. The prognostic value of ECG abnormalities was assessed in a model adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, and vital signs. RESULTS: At 48 hours, 73 of 1258 patients (5.8%) had died and 174 of 1258 (13.8%) were alive but receiving mechanical ventilation with 277 of 1258 (22.0%) patients dying by 30 days. Early development of respiratory failure was common, with 53% of all intubations occurring within 48 hours of presentation. In a multivariable logistic regression, atrial fibrillation/flutter (odds ratio [OR], 2.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.2), right ventricular strain (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.3 to 6.1), and ST segment abnormalities (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.5 to 3.8) were associated with death or mechanical ventilation at 48 hours. In 108 patients without these ECG abnormalities and with normal respiratory vitals (rate <20 breaths/min and saturation >95%), only 5 (4.6%) died or required mechanical ventilation by 48 hours versus 68 of 216 patients (31.5%) having both ECG and respiratory vital sign abnormalities. CONCLUSION: The combination of abnormal respiratory vital signs and ECG findings of atrial fibrillation/flutter, right ventricular strain, or ST segment abnormalities accurately prognosticates early deterioration in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and may assist with patient triage.


Assuntos
Arritmias Cardíacas/diagnóstico por imagem , Infecções por Coronavirus/fisiopatologia , Eletrocardiografia/estatística & dados numéricos , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/fisiopatologia , Tempo para o Tratamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Betacoronavirus , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Prognóstico
17.
Lancet Rheumatol ; 2(11): e698-e711, 2020 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32864627

RESUMO

Background: Hydroxychloroquine, a drug commonly used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, has received much negative publicity for adverse events associated with its authorisation for emergency use to treat patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. We studied the safety of hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with azithromycin, to determine the risk associated with its use in routine care in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Methods: In this multinational, retrospective study, new user cohort studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 18 years or older and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared with those initiating sulfasalazine and followed up over 30 days, with 16 severe adverse events studied. Self-controlled case series were done to further establish safety in wider populations, and included all users of hydroxychloroquine regardless of rheumatoid arthritis status or indication. Separately, severe adverse events associated with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin (compared with hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin) were studied. Data comprised 14 sources of claims data or electronic medical records from Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate calibrated hazard ratios (HRs) according to drug use. Estimates were pooled where the I 2 value was less than 0·4. Findings: The study included 956 374 users of hydroxychloroquine, 310 350 users of sulfasalazine, 323 122 users of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, and 351 956 users of hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin. No excess risk of severe adverse events was identified when 30-day hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine use were compared. Self-controlled case series confirmed these findings. However, long-term use of hydroxychloroquine appeared to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 1·65 [95% CI 1·12-2·44]). Addition of azithromycin appeared to be associated with an increased risk of 30-day cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 2·19 [95% CI 1·22-3·95]), chest pain or angina (1·15 [1·05-1·26]), and heart failure (1·22 [1·02-1·45]). Interpretation: Hydroxychloroquine treatment appears to have no increased risk in the short term among patients with rheumatoid arthritis, but in the long term it appears to be associated with excess cardiovascular mortality. The addition of azithromycin increases the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular mortality even in the short term. We call for careful consideration of the benefit-risk trade-off when counselling those on hydroxychloroquine treatment. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Senior Research Fellowship programme, US National Institutes of Health, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Janssen Research and Development, IQVIA, Korea Health Industry Development Institute through the Ministry of Health and Welfare Republic of Korea, Versus Arthritis, UK Medical Research Council Doctoral Training Partnership, Foundation Alfonso Martin Escudero, Innovation Fund Denmark, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council Open Fund Large Collaborative Grant, VINCI, Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking, EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations.

18.
J Am Med Inform Assoc ; 27(8): 1331-1337, 2020 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32909033

RESUMO

Evidence derived from existing health-care data, such as administrative claims and electronic health records, can fill evidence gaps in medicine. However, many claim such data cannot be used to estimate causal treatment effects because of the potential for observational study bias; for example, due to residual confounding. Other concerns include P hacking and publication bias. In response, the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics international collaborative launched the Large-scale Evidence Generation and Evaluation across a Network of Databases (LEGEND) research initiative. Its mission is to generate evidence on the effects of medical interventions using observational health-care databases while addressing the aforementioned concerns by following a recently proposed paradigm. We define 10 principles of LEGEND that enshrine this new paradigm, prescribing the generation and dissemination of evidence on many research questions at once; for example, comparing all treatments for a disease for many outcomes, thus preventing publication bias. These questions are answered using a prespecified and systematic approach, avoiding P hacking. Best-practice statistical methods address measured confounding, and control questions (research questions where the answer is known) quantify potential residual bias. Finally, the evidence is generated in a network of databases to assess consistency by sharing open-source analytics code to enhance transparency and reproducibility, but without sharing patient-level information. Here we detail the LEGEND principles and provide a generic overview of a LEGEND study. Our companion paper highlights an example study on the effects of hypertension treatments, and evaluates the internal and external validity of the evidence we generate.

19.
JAMIA Open ; 3(2): 281-289, 2020 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32734169

RESUMO

Objective: The study sought to explore information needs arising from a gap in clinicians' knowledge that is not met by current evidence and identify possible areas of use and target groups for a future clinical decision support system (CDSS), which will guide clinicians in cases where no evidence exists. Materials and Methods: We interviewed 30 physicians in a large academic medical center, analyzed transcripts using deductive thematic analysis, and developed a set of themes of information needs related to a gap in knowledge unmet by current evidence. We conducted additional statistical analyses to identify the correlation between clinical experience, clinical specialty, settings of clinical care, and the characteristics of the needs. Results: This study resulted in a set of themes and subthemes of information needs arising from a gap in current evidence. Experienced physicians and inpatient physicians had more questions and the number of questions did not decline with clinical experience. The main areas of information needs included patients with comorbidities, elderly and children, new drugs, and rare disorders. To address these questions, clinicians most often used a commercial tool, guidelines, and PubMed. While primary care physicians preferred the commercial tool, specialty physicians sought more in-depth knowledge. Discussion: The current medical evidence appeared to be inadequate in covering specific populations such as patients with multiple comorbidities and elderly, and was sometimes irrelevant to complex clinical scenarios. Our findings may suggest that experienced and inpatient physicians would benefit from a CDSS that generates evidence in real time at the point of care. Conclusions: We found that physicians had information needs, which arose from the gaps in current medical evidence. This study provides insights on how the CDSS that aims at addressing these needs should be designed.

20.
J Am Med Inform Assoc ; 27(8): 1268-1277, 2020 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32827027

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate the application of the Large-scale Evidence Generation and Evaluation across a Network of Databases (LEGEND) principles described in our companion article to hypertension treatments and assess internal and external validity of the generated evidence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: LEGEND defines a process for high-quality observational research based on 10 guiding principles. We demonstrate how this process, here implemented through large-scale propensity score modeling, negative and positive control questions, empirical calibration, and full transparency, can be applied to compare antihypertensive drug therapies. We assess internal validity through covariate balance, confidence-interval coverage, between-database heterogeneity, and transitivity of results. We assess external validity through comparison to direct meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). RESULTS: From 21.6 million unique antihypertensive new users, we generate 6 076 775 effect size estimates for 699 872 research questions on 12 946 treatment comparisons. Through propensity score matching, we achieve balance on all baseline patient characteristics for 75% of estimates, observe 95.7% coverage in our effect-estimate 95% confidence intervals, find high between-database consistency, and achieve transitivity in 84.8% of triplet hypotheses. Compared with meta-analyses of RCTs, our results are consistent with 28 of 30 comparisons while providing narrower confidence intervals. CONCLUSION: We find that these LEGEND results show high internal validity and are congruent with meta-analyses of RCTs. For these reasons we believe that evidence generated by LEGEND is of high quality and can inform medical decision-making where evidence is currently lacking. Subsequent publications will explore the clinical interpretations of this evidence.

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