Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 45
Filtrar
1.
R Soc Open Sci ; 8(11): 210704, 2021 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34737873

RESUMO

Pooling is a method of simultaneously testing multiple samples for the presence of pathogens. Pooling of SARS-CoV-2 tests is increasing in popularity, due to its high testing throughput. A popular pooling scheme is Dorfman pooling: test N individuals simultaneously, if the test is positive, each individual is then tested separately; otherwise, all are declared negative. Most analyses of the error rates of pooling schemes assume that including more than a single infected sample in a pooled test does not increase the probability of a positive outcome. We challenge this assumption with experimental data and suggest a novel and parsimonious probabilistic model for the outcomes of pooled tests. As an application, we analyse the false-negative rate (i.e. the probability of a negative result for an infected individual) of Dorfman pooling. We show that the false-negative rates under Dorfman pooling increase when the prevalence of infection decreases. However, low infection prevalence is exactly the condition when Dorfman pooling achieves highest throughput efficiency. We therefore urge the cautious use of pooling and development of pooling schemes that consider correctly accounting for tests' error rates.

2.
EClinicalMedicine ; 41: 101158, 2021 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34693234

RESUMO

Background: Trials of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine showed 95% efficacy in preventing symptomatic disease; however, the trials excluded immunocompromised patients (ICPs). We aim at analyzing antibody response in ICPs. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted at Sheba Medical Center, Israel, between January and April 2020, in 1274 participants who received the vaccine, including 1002 ICPs and 272 immunocompetent healthcare workers (HCWs). Antibodies were measured two-four weeks after vaccination by SARS-CoV-2 anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibodies (RBD IgG) and pseudo-virus neutralization assays. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with vaccine-induced antibody response. Adverse events (AEs) were monitored. Findings: RBD-IgG antibodies were detected in 154/156 (98.7%) of patients with HIV, 75/90 (83.3%) with solid malignancies, 149/187 (79.7%) with myeloma, 83/111 (74.8%) following hematopoietic stem cell transplants, 25/36 (69.4%) following liver transplantation, 26/43 (60.5%) with myelodysplastic syndrome, 96/188 (51.0%) with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, 50/110 (45.5%) following kidney transplantation, 15/80 (18.8%) following heart transplantation, and 269/272 (98.9%) in controls. There was a significant correlation r = 0.74 (95%CI 0.69,0.78) between RBD-binding IgG and neutralizing antibodies in all groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age > 65 years (OR 0.41,95%CI 0.30,0.57) and underlying immunosuppression (OR 0.02,95%CI 0.01,0.07) were significantly associated with a non-reactive response of IgG antibodies. HIV patients showed a similar immunological response as healthy adults. The vaccine was safe without any episodes of rejection, graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) or allergy. Immunocompetent HCWs experienced significantly more AEs than ICPs. Interpretation: Antibody response to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was highly variable among different ICPs; thus, individual recommendations should be provided for the different immunosuppression states.

3.
N Engl J Med ; 2021 Oct 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34706170

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In December 2020, Israel began a mass vaccination campaign against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) by administering the BNT162b2 vaccine, which led to a sharp curtailing of the outbreak. After a period with almost no cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, a resurgent Covid-19 outbreak began in mid-June 2021. Possible reasons for the resurgence were reduced vaccine effectiveness against the delta (B.1.617.2) variant and waning immunity. The extent of waning immunity of the vaccine against the delta variant in Israel is unclear. METHODS: We used data on confirmed infection and severe disease collected from an Israeli national database for the period of July 11 to 31, 2021, for all Israeli residents who had been fully vaccinated before June 2021. We used a Poisson regression model to compare rates of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe Covid-19 among persons vaccinated during different time periods, with stratification according to age group and with adjustment for possible confounding factors. RESULTS: Among persons 60 years of age or older, the rate of infection in the July 11-31 period was higher among persons who became fully vaccinated in January 2021 (when they were first eligible) than among those fully vaccinated 2 months later, in March (rate ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 2.0). Among persons 40 to 59 years of age, the rate ratio for infection among those fully vaccinated in February (when they were first eligible), as compared with 2 months later, in April, was 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4 to 2.1). Among persons 16 to 39 years of age, the rate ratio for infection among those fully vaccinated in March (when they were first eligible), as compared with 2 months later, in May, was 1.6 (95% CI, 1.3 to 2.0). The rate ratio for severe disease among persons fully vaccinated in the month when they were first eligible, as compared with those fully vaccinated in March, was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 2.9) among persons 60 years of age or older and 2.2 (95% CI, 0.6 to 7.7) among those 40 to 59 years of age; owing to small numbers, the rate ratio could not be calculated among persons 16 to 39 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that immunity against the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 waned in all age groups a few months after receipt of the second dose of vaccine.

4.
J Clin Epidemiol ; 2021 Oct 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34715314

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of the Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine against the SARS-Cov-2 Beta variant. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Israel's mass vaccination program, using two doses of the Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine, successfully curtailed the alpha variant outbreak during winter 2020-21, However, the virus may mutate and partially evade the immune system. To monitor this, sequencing of selected positive swab samples of interest was initiated. Comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated PCR positive persons, we estimated the odds ratio for a vaccinated case to have the Beta versus the Alpha variant, using logistic regression, controlling for important confounders. RESULTS: There were 19 cases of Beta variant (3.2%) among those vaccinated more than 14 days before the positive sample and 79 (3.4%) among the unvaccinated. The estimated odds ratio was 1.26 [95% CI: 0.65-2.46]. Assuming the effectiveness against the Alpha variant to be 95%, the estimated effectiveness against the Beta variant was 94% [95% CI: 88-98%]. CONCLUSION: Despite concerns over the Beta variant, the BNT162b2 vaccine seemed to provide substantial immunity against both that Beta and the Alpha variants. From 14 days following the second vaccine dose the effectiveness of BNT162b2 vaccine was at most marginally affected by the Beta variant.

5.
N Engl J Med ; 385(15): 1393-1400, 2021 10 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34525275

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: On July 30, 2021, the administration of a third (booster) dose of the BNT162b2 messenger RNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) was approved in Israel for persons who were 60 years of age or older and who had received a second dose of vaccine at least 5 months earlier. Data are needed regarding the effect of the booster dose on the rate of confirmed coronavirus 2019 disease (Covid-19) and the rate of severe illness. METHODS: We extracted data for the period from July 30 through August 31, 2021, from the Israeli Ministry of Health database regarding 1,137,804 persons who were 60 years of age or older and had been fully vaccinated (i.e., had received two doses of BNT162b2) at least 5 months earlier. In the primary analysis, we compared the rate of confirmed Covid-19 and the rate of severe illness between those who had received a booster injection at least 12 days earlier (booster group) and those who had not received a booster injection (nonbooster group). In a secondary analysis, we evaluated the rate of infection 4 to 6 days after the booster dose as compared with the rate at least 12 days after the booster. In all the analyses, we used Poisson regression after adjusting for possible confounding factors. RESULTS: At least 12 days after the booster dose, the rate of confirmed infection was lower in the booster group than in the nonbooster group by a factor of 11.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4 to 12.3); the rate of severe illness was lower by a factor of 19.5 (95% CI, 12.9 to 29.5). In a secondary analysis, the rate of confirmed infection at least 12 days after vaccination was lower than the rate after 4 to 6 days by a factor of 5.4 (95% CI, 4.8 to 6.1). CONCLUSIONS: In this study involving participants who were 60 years of age or older and had received two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine at least 5 months earlier, we found that the rates of confirmed Covid-19 and severe illness were substantially lower among those who received a booster (third) dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Imunização Secundária , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Bases de Dados Factuais , Feminino , Humanos , Israel/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Gravidade do Paciente , Distribuição de Poisson , SARS-CoV-2
6.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34343285

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Testing individuals for the presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the pathogen causing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is crucial for curtailing transmission chains. Moreover, rapidly testing many potentially infected individuals is often a limiting factor in controlling COVID-19 outbreaks. Hence, pooling strategies, wherein individuals are grouped and tested simultaneously, are employed. Here, we present a novel pooling strategy that builds on the Bayesian D-optimal experimental design criterion. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our strategy, called DOPE (D-Optimal Pooling Experimental design), is built on a novel Bayesian formulation of pooling. DOPE defines optimal pooled tests as those maximizing the mutual information between data and infection states. We estimate said mutual information via Monte-Carlo sampling and employ a discrete optimization heuristic to maximize it. RESULTS: We compare DOPE to other, commonly used pooling strategies, as well as to individual testing. DOPE dominates the other strategies as it yields lower error rates while utilizing fewer tests. We show that DOPE maintains this dominance for a variety of infection prevalence values. DISCUSSION: DOPE has several additional advantages over common pooling strategies: it provides posterior distributions of the probability of infection, rather than only binary classification outcomes; it naturally incorporates prior information of infection probabilities and test error rates; and finally, it can be easily extended to include other, newly discovered information regarding COVID-19. CONCLUSION: DOPE can substantially improve accuracy and throughput over current pooling strategies. Hence, DOPE can facilitate rapid testing and aid the efforts of combating COVID-19 and other future pandemics.

7.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34438069

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: The immunogenicity and safety of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in people living with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (PLWH) are unknown. We aimed to assess the immunogenicity and safety of this vaccine in PLWH. METHODS: In this prospective open study, we enrolled 143 PLWH, aged ≥18 years, who attended our clinic and 261 immunocompetent health-care workers (HCWs). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG and neutralizing antibodies were measured. Adverse events, viral load and CD4 cell counts were monitored. RESULTS: At a median of 18 days (interquartile range 14-21 days) after the second dose, anti-RBD-IgG was positive in 139/141 (98%) PLWH. Among HCWs, 258/261 (98.9%) developed anti-RBD-IgG at a median of 26 days (interquartile range 24-27 days) after the second dose. Following the second dose, immune sera neutralized SARS-CoV-2 pseudo-virus in 97% and 98% of PLWH and HCWs, respectively. Adverse events were reported in 60% of PLWH, mainly pain at the injection site, fatigue and headache. AIDS-related adverse events were not reported. Human immunodeficiency virus load increased in 3/143 (2%) patients from <40 copies/mL to ≤100 copies/mL. CD4+ T-cell count decreased from a geometric mean of 700 cells/µL (95% CI 648-757 cells/µL) to 633.8 cells/µL (95% CI 588-683 cells/µL) (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine appears immunogenic and safe in PLWH who are on antiretroviral therapy with unsuppressed CD4 count and suppressed viral load.

8.
Lancet Reg Health Eur ; 7: 100150, 2021 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34250518

RESUMO

Background: BNT162b2 was shown to be 92% effective in preventing COVID-19. Prioritizing vaccine rollout, and achievement of herd immunity depend on SARS-CoV-2 transmission reduction. The vaccine's effect on infectivity is thus a critical priority. Methods: Among all 9650 HCW of a large tertiary medical center in Israel, we calculated the prevalence of positive SARS-CoV-2 qRT-PCR cases with asymptomatic presentation, tested following known or presumed exposure and the infectious subset (N-gene-Ct-value<30) of these. Additionally, infection incidence rates were calculated for symptomatic cases and infectious (Ct<30) cases. Vaccine effectiveness within three months of vaccine rollout was measured as one minus the relative risk or rate ratio, respectively. To further assess infectiousness, we compared the mean Ct-value and the proportion of infections with a positive SARS-CoV-2 antigen test of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. The correlation between IgG levels within the week before detection and Ct level was assessed. Findings: Reduced prevalence among fully vaccinated HCW was observed for (i) infections detected due to exposure, with asymptomatic presentation (VE(i)=65.1%, 95%CI 45-79%), (ii) the presumed infectious (Ct<30) subset of these (VE(ii)=69.6%, 95%CI 43-84%) (iii) never-symptomatic infections (VE(iii)=72.3%, 95%CI 48-86%), and (iv) the presumed infectious (Ct<30) subset (VE(iv)=83.0%, 95%CI 51-94%).Incidence of (v) symptomatic and (vi) symptomatic-infectious cases was significantly lower among fully vaccinated vs. unvaccinated individuals (VE(v)= 89.7%, 95%CI 84-94%, VE(vi)=88.1%, 95%CI 80-95%).The mean Ct-value was significantly higher in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated (27.3±1.2 vs. 22.2±1.0, p<0.001) and the proportion of positive SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests was also significantly lower among vaccinated vs. unvaccinated PCR-positive HCW (80% vs. 31%, p<0.001). Lower infectivity was correlated with higher IgG concentrations (R=0.36, p=0.01). Interpretation: These results suggest that BNT162b2 is moderately to highly effective in reducing infectivity, via preventing infection and through reducing viral shedding. Funding: Sheba Medical Center, Israel.

9.
Lancet Respir Med ; 9(9): 999-1009, 2021 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34224675

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Concurrent with the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in Israel initiated on Dec 19, 2020, we assessed the early antibody responses and antibody kinetics after each vaccine dose in health-care workers of different ages and sexes, and with different comorbidities. METHODS: We did a prospective, single-centre, longitudinal cohort study at the Sheba Medical Centre (Tel-Hashomer, Israel). Eligible participants were health-care workers at the centre who had a negative anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay before receiving the first dose of the intramuscular vaccine, and at least one serological antibody test after the first dose of the vaccine. Health-care workers with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test before vaccination, a positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG serology test before vaccination, or infection with COVID-19 after vaccination were excluded from the study. Participants were followed up weekly for 5 weeks after the first vaccine dose; a second dose was given at week 3. Serum samples were obtained at baseline and at each weekly follow-up, and antibodies were tested at 1-2 weeks after the first vaccine dose, at week 3 with the administration of the second vaccine dose, and at weeks 4-5 (ie, 1-2 weeks after the second vaccine dose). Participants with comorbidities were approached to participate in an enriched comorbidities subgroup, and at least two neutralising assays were done during the 5 weeks of follow-up in those individuals. IgG assays were done for the entire study population, whereas IgM, IgA, and neutralising antibody assays were done only in the enriched comorbidities subgroup. Concentrations of IgG greater than 0·62 sample-to-cutoff (s/co) ratio and of IgA greater than 1·1 s/co, and titres of neutralising antibodies greater than 10 were considered positive. Scatter plot and correlation analyses, logistic and linear regression analyses, and linear mixed models were used to investigate the longitudinal antibody responses. FINDINGS: Between Dec 19, 2020, and Jan 30, 2021, we obtained 4026 serum samples from 2607 eligible, vaccinated participants. 342 individuals were included in the enriched comorbidities subgroup. The first vaccine dose elicited positive IgG and neutralising antibody responses at week 3 in 707 (88·0%) of 803 individuals, and 264 (71·0%) of 372 individuals, respectively, which were rapidly increased at week 4 (ie, 1 week after the second vaccine dose) in 1011 (98·4%) of 1027 and 357 (96·5%) of 370 individuals, respectively. Over 4 weeks of follow-up after vaccination, a high correlation (r=0·92) was detected between IgG against the receptor-binding domain and neutralising antibody titres. First-dose induced IgG response was significantly lower in individuals aged 66 years and older (ratio of means 0·25, 95% CI 0·19-0·31) and immunosuppressed individuals (0·21, 0·14-0·31) compared with individuals aged 18·00-45·99 years and individuals with no immunosuppression, respectively. This disparity was partly abrogated following the second dose. Overall, endpoint regression analysis showed that lower antibody concentrations were consistently associated with male sex (ratio of means 0·84, 95% CI 0·80-0·89), older age (ie, ≥66 years; 0·64, 0·58-0·71), immunosuppression (0·44, 0·33-0·58), and other specific comorbidities: diabetes (0·88, 0·79-0·98), hypertension (0·90, 0·82-0·98), heart disease (0·86, 0·75-1·00), and autoimmune diseases (0·82, 0·73-0·92). INTERPRETATION: BNT162b2 vaccine induces a robust and rapid antibody response. The significant correlation between receptor-binding domain IgG antibodies and neutralisation titres suggests that IgG antibodies might serve as a correlate of neutralisation. The second vaccine dose is particularly important for older and immunosuppressed individuals, highlighting the need for timely second vaccinations and potentially a revaluation of the long gap between doses in some countries. Antibody responses were reduced in susceptible populations and therefore they might be more prone to breakthrough infections. FUNDING: Sheba Medical Center, Israel Ministry of Health.


Assuntos
Anticorpos Neutralizantes/sangue , Anticorpos Antivirais/sangue , Vacinas contra COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Pessoal de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Anticorpos Neutralizantes/imunologia , Anticorpos Antivirais/imunologia , Anticorpos Antivirais/isolamento & purificação , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/virologia , Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Imunidade Humoral , Imunogenicidade da Vacina , Israel/epidemiologia , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Estudos Prospectivos , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , Vacinação/métodos , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem
10.
Nat Med ; 27(8): 1379-1384, 2021 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34127854

RESUMO

The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is highly effective against SARS-CoV-2. However, apprehension exists that variants of concern (VOCs) may evade vaccine protection, due to evidence of reduced neutralization of the VOCs B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 by vaccine sera in laboratory assays. We performed a matched cohort study to examine the distribution of VOCs in infections of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccinees from Clalit Health Services (Israel) using viral genomic sequencing, and hypothesized that if vaccine effectiveness against a VOC is reduced, its proportion among breakthrough cases would be higher than in unvaccinated controls. Analyzing 813 viral genome sequences from nasopharyngeal swabs, we showed that vaccinees who tested positive at least 7 days after the second dose were disproportionally infected with B.1.351, compared with controls. Those who tested positive between 2 weeks after the first dose and 6 days after the second dose were disproportionally infected by B.1.1.7. These findings suggest reduced vaccine effectiveness against both VOCs within particular time windows. Our results emphasize the importance of rigorously tracking viral variants, and of increasing vaccination to prevent the spread of VOCs.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , COVID-19/virologia , RNA Mensageiro/genética , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
11.
FEMS Microbiol Ecol ; 97(5)2021 04 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33739375

RESUMO

Bdellovibrio and like organisms (BALOs) are obligate predatory bacteria commonly encountered in the environment. In dual predator-prey cultures, prey accessibility ensures optimal feeding and replication and rapid BALO population growth. However, the environmental prey landscape is complex, as it also incorporates non-prey cells and other particles. These may act as decoys, generating unproductive encounters which in turn may affect both predator and prey population dynamics. In this study, we hypothesized that increasing decoy:prey ratios would bring about increasing costs on the predator's reproductive fitness. We also tested the hypothesis that different BALOs and decoys would have different effects. To this end, we constructed prey landscapes including periplasmic or epibiotic predators including two types of decoy under a large range of initial decoy:prey ratio, and mixed cultures containing multiple predators and prey. We show that as decoy:prey ratios increase, the maximal predator population sizes is reduced and the time to reach it significantly increases. We found that BALOs spent less time handling non-prey (including superinfection-immune invaded prey) than prey cells, and did not differentiate between efficient and less efficient prey. This may explain why in multiple predator and prey cultures, less preferred prey appear to act as decoy.


Assuntos
Bdellovibrio , Gammaproteobacteria
12.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 17(2): e1008559, 2021 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33571188

RESUMO

One of the significant unanswered questions about COVID-19 epidemiology relates to the role of children in transmission. This study uses data on infections within households in order to estimate the susceptibility and infectivity of children compared to those of adults. The data were collected from households in the city of Bnei Brak, Israel, in which all household members were tested for COVID-19 using PCR (637 households, average household size of 5.3). In addition, serological tests were performed on a subset of the individuals in the study. Inspection of the PCR data shows that children are less likely to be tested positive compared to adults (25% of children positive over all households, 44% of adults positive over all households, excluding index cases), and the chance of being positive increases with age. Analysis of joint PCR/serological data shows that there is under-detection of infections in the PCR testing, which is more substantial in children. However, the differences in detection rates are not sufficient to account for the differences in PCR positive rates in the two age groups. To estimate relative transmission parameters, we employ a discrete stochastic model of the spread of infection within a household, allowing for susceptibility and infectivity parameters to differ among children and adults. The model is fitted to the household data using a simulated maximum likelihood approach. To adjust parameter estimates for under-detection of infections in the PCR results, we employ a multiple imputation procedure using estimates of under-detection in children and adults, based on the available serological data. We estimate that the susceptibility of children (under 20 years old) is 43% (95% CI: [31%, 55%]) of the susceptibility of adults. The infectivity of children was estimated to be 63% (95% CI: [37%, 88%]) relative to that of adults.


Assuntos
COVID-19/transmissão , Características da Família , Adolescente , Adulto , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/virologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Israel/epidemiologia , Funções Verossimilhança , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Processos Estocásticos , Adulto Jovem
13.
ISME J ; 15(1): 109-123, 2021 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32884113

RESUMO

The small size of bacterial cells necessitates rapid adaption to sudden environmental changes. In Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus, an obligate predator of bacteria common in oligotrophic environments, the non-replicative, highly motile attack phase (AP) cell must invade a prey to ensure replication. AP cells swim fast and respire at high rates, rapidly consuming their own contents. How the predator survives in the absence of prey is unknown. We show that starvation for prey significantly alters swimming patterns and causes exponential decay in prey-searching cells over hours, until population-wide swim-arrest. Swim-arrest is accompanied by changes in energy metabolism, enabling rapid swim-reactivation upon introduction of prey or nutrients, and a sweeping change in gene expression and gene regulation that largely differs from those of the paradigmatic stationary phase. Swim-arrest is costly as it imposes a fitness penalty in the form of delayed growth. We track the control of the swim arrest-reactivation process to cyclic-di-GMP (CdG) effectors, including two motility brakes. CRISPRi transcriptional inactivation, and in situ localization of the brakes to the cell pole, demonstrated their essential role for effective survival under prey-induced starvation. Thus, obligate predators evolved a unique CdG-controlled survival strategy, enabling them to sustain their uncommon lifestyle under fluctuating prey supply.


Assuntos
Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus , Bdellovibrio , Ciclo Celular
14.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 5518, 2020 11 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33139704

RESUMO

Full genome sequences are increasingly used to track the geographic spread and transmission dynamics of viral pathogens. Here, with a focus on Israel, we sequence 212 SARS-CoV-2 sequences and use them to perform a comprehensive analysis to trace the origins and spread of the virus. We find that travelers returning from the United States of America significantly contributed to viral spread in Israel, more than their proportion in incoming infected travelers. Using phylodynamic analysis, we estimate that the basic reproduction number of the virus was initially around 2.5, dropping by more than two-thirds following the implementation of social distancing measures. We further report high levels of transmission heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 spread, with between 2-10% of infected individuals resulting in 80% of secondary infections. Overall, our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of social distancing measures for reducing viral spread.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/genética , Doenças Transmissíveis Importadas/virologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Genoma Viral/genética , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Sequência de Bases , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , COVID-19 , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Doenças Transmissíveis Importadas/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Israel/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Filogenia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Distância Psicológica , RNA Viral/genética , SARS-CoV-2 , Análise de Sequência de RNA , Estados Unidos , Adulto Jovem
15.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(23): 13138-13144, 2020 06 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32457142

RESUMO

Regions with insufficient vaccination have hindered worldwide poliomyelitis eradication, as they are vulnerable to sporadic outbreaks through reintroduction of the disease. Despite Israel's having been declared polio-free in 1988, a routine sewage surveillance program detected polio in 2013. To curtail transmission, the Israel Ministry of Health launched a vaccine campaign to vaccinate children-who had only received the inactivated polio vaccine-with the oral polio vaccine (OPV). Determining the degree of prosocial motivation in vaccination behavior is challenging because vaccination typically provides direct benefits to the individual as well as indirect benefits to the community by curtailing transmission. However, the Israel OPV campaign provides a unique and excellent opportunity to quantify and model prosocial vaccination as its primary objective was to avert transmission. Using primary survey data and a game-theoretical model, we examine and quantify prosocial behavior during the OPV campaign. We found that the observed vaccination behavior in the Israeli OPV campaign is attributable to prosocial behavior and heterogeneous perceived risk of paralysis based on the individual's comprehension of the prosocial nature of the campaign. We also found that the benefit of increasing comprehension of the prosocial nature of the campaign would be limited if even 24% of the population acts primarily from self-interest, as greater vaccination coverage provides no personal utility to them. Our results suggest that to improve coverage, communication efforts should also focus on alleviating perceived fears surrounding the vaccine.


Assuntos
Altruísmo , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Vacinação em Massa/psicologia , Poliomielite/prevenção & controle , Vacina Antipólio Oral/uso terapêutico , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Teoria do Jogo , Humanos , Programas de Imunização/métodos , Programas de Imunização/estatística & dados numéricos , Israel/epidemiologia , Vacinação em Massa/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Neurológicos , Poliomielite/epidemiologia , Poliomielite/virologia , Poliovirus/isolamento & purificação , Vacina Antipólio de Vírus Inativado/uso terapêutico , Esgotos/virologia , Inquéritos e Questionários , Cobertura Vacinal/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem
16.
Environ Microbiol ; 22(2): 694-704, 2020 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31814273

RESUMO

Natural landscapes are both fragmented and heterogeneous, affecting the distribution of organisms, and their interactions. While predation in homogeneous environments increases the probability of population extinction, fragmentation/heterogeneity promotes coexistence and enhances community stability as shown by experimentation with animals and microorganisms, and supported by theory. Patch connectivity can modulate such effects but how microbial predatory interactions are affected by water-driven connectivity is unknown. In soil, patch habitability by microorganisms, and their connectivity depend upon the water saturation degree (SD). Here, using the obligate bacterial predator Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus, and a Burkholderia prey, we show that soil spatial heterogeneity profoundly affects predatory dynamics, enhancing long-term co-existence of predator and prey in a SD-threshold dependent-manner. However, as patches and connectors cannot be distinguished in these soil matrices, metapopulations cannot be invoked to explain the dynamics of increased persistence. Using a set of experiments combined with statistical and physical models we demonstrate and quantify how under full connectivity, predation is independent of water content but depends on soil microstructure characteristics. In contrast, the SD below which predation is largely impaired corresponds to a threshold below which the water network collapses and water connectivity breaks down, preventing the bacteria to move within the soil matrix.


Assuntos
Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus/fisiologia , Burkholderia/fisiologia , Interações Microbianas/fisiologia , Comportamento Predatório/fisiologia , Animais , Modelos Teóricos , Microbiologia do Solo
17.
Environ Microbiol ; 21(8): 2997-3010, 2019 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31136086

RESUMO

Bdellovibrio and like organisms (BALOs) are largely distributed in soils and in water bodies obligate predators of gram-negative bacteria that can affect bacterial communities. Potential applications of BALOs include biomass reduction, their use against pathogenic bacteria in agriculture, and in medicine as an alternative against antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Such different environments and uses mean that BALOs should be active under a range of viscosities. In this study, the predatory behaviour of two strains of the periplasmic predator B. bacteriovorus and of the epibiotic predator Micavibrio aeruginosavorus was examined in viscous polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) solutions at 28 and at 37°C, using fluorescent markers and plate counts to track predator growth and prey decay. We found that at high viscosities, although swimming speed was largely decreased, the three predators reduced prey to levels similar to those of non-viscous suspensions, albeit with short delays. Prey motility and clumping did not affect the outcome. Strikingly, under low initial predator concentrations, predation dynamics were faster with increasing viscosity, an effect that dissipated with increasing predator concentrations. Changes in swimming patterns and in futile predator-predator encounters with viscosity, as revealed by path analysis under changing viscosities, along with possible PVP-mediated crowding effects, may explain the observed phenomena.


Assuntos
Bdellovibrio/fisiologia , Viscosidade , Animais
18.
Bull Math Biol ; 80(11): 3038-3067, 2018 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30229426

RESUMO

The recent Zika virus outbreak has been spreading rapidly all over the world, expanding its traditionally geographical affected regions, making it a global public health hazard and endangering millions of people. One unique property of the Zika virus compared to most vector-borne diseases is the fact that the virus is transmitted both by mosquitoes and by direct sexual contact. In the present manuscript, we formulate and analyze five mathematical compartmental models of Zika transmission. We model both transmission routes (i.e., vector-borne and sexual transmission). In order to make the model more realistic, heterogeneity in the sexual transmission is modeled in several ways. We fitted the five different models to data, inferred the parameters and selected the most appropriated model, which describes the Zika outbreak in Columbia. For all the models, we estimate the reproduction numbers, namely direct (sexual) transmission, vector transmission and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]. The analysis revealed that the sexual transmission contribution to [Formula: see text] is highest [15.36% (95% CI 12.83-17.4)] for the model which stratifies each gender to high-risk and low-risk individuals in their sexual behavior. For this model, the estimated [Formula: see text] is 1.89 (95% CI 1.21-2.13), the direct transmission reproduction number is 0.42 (95% CI 0.29-0.64), and the vector transmission reproduction number is 1.51 (95% CI 1.23-1.87). The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the value of [Formula: see text] depends on three controllable parameters: the biting rate, the sexual transmission rate and the average ratio of mosquito to human.


Assuntos
Modelos Biológicos , Infecção por Zika virus/transmissão , Animais , Número Básico de Reprodução , Teorema de Bayes , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Funções Verossimilhança , Masculino , Cadeias de Markov , Conceitos Matemáticos , Método de Monte Carlo , Mosquitos Vetores/virologia , Gravidez , Comportamento Sexual , Infecção por Zika virus/epidemiologia
20.
Stat Methods Med Res ; 27(7): 1999-2014, 2018 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29260611

RESUMO

Age-dependent dynamics is an important characteristic of many infectious diseases. Age-group epidemic models describe the infection dynamics in different age-groups by allowing to set distinct parameter values for each. However, such models are highly nonlinear and may have a large number of unknown parameters. Thus, parameter estimation of age-group models, while becoming a fundamental issue for both the scientific study and policy making in infectious diseases, is not a trivial task in practice. In this paper, we examine the estimation of the so-called next-generation matrix using incidence data of a single entire outbreak, and extend the approach to deal with recurring outbreaks. Unlike previous studies, we do not assume any constraints regarding the structure of the matrix. A novel two-stage approach is developed, which allows for efficient parameter estimation from both statistical and computational perspectives. Simulation studies corroborate the ability to estimate accurately the parameters of the model for several realistic scenarios. The model and estimation method are applied to real data of influenza-like-illness in Israel. The parameter estimates of the key relevant epidemiological parameters and the recovered structure of the estimated next-generation matrix are in line with results obtained in previous studies.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças , Incidência , Modelos Estatísticos , Distribuição por Idade , Algoritmos , Simulação por Computador , Humanos
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA
...