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Breast Cancer Res ; 23(1): 22, 2021 Feb 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33588869


BACKGROUND: The Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) and the Tyrer-Cuzick breast cancer risk prediction models are commonly used in clinical practice and have recently been extended to include polygenic risk scores (PRS). In addition, BOADICEA has also been extended to include reproductive and lifestyle factors, which were already part of Tyrer-Cuzick model. We conducted a comparative prospective validation of these models after incorporating the recently developed 313-variant PRS. METHODS: Calibration and discrimination of 5-year absolute risk was assessed in a nested case-control sample of 1337 women of European ancestry (619 incident breast cancer cases) aged 23-75 years from the Generations Study. RESULTS: The extended BOADICEA model with reproductive/lifestyle factors and PRS was well calibrated across risk deciles; expected-to-observed ratio (E/O) at the highest risk decile :0.97 (95 % CI 0.51 - 1.86) for women younger than 50 years and 1.09 (0.66 - 1.80) for women 50 years or older. Adding reproductive/lifestyle factors and PRS to the BOADICEA model improved discrimination modestly in younger women (area under the curve (AUC) 69.7 % vs. 69.1%) and substantially in older women (AUC 64.6 % vs. 56.8%). The Tyrer-Cuzick model with PRS showed evidence of overestimation at the highest risk decile: E/O = 1.54(0.81 - 2.92) for younger and 1.73 (1.03 - 2.90) for older women. CONCLUSION: The extended BOADICEA model identified women in a European-ancestry population at elevated breast cancer risk more accurately than the Tyrer-Cuzick model with PRS. With the increasing availability of PRS, these analyses can inform choice of risk models incorporating PRS for risk stratified breast cancer prevention among women of European ancestry.

Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33097496


BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests etiologic heterogeneity among breast cancer subtypes. Previous studies with six-marker IHC classification of intrinsic subtypes included small numbers of black women. METHODS: Using centralized laboratory results for estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor, HER2, proliferation marker, Ki-67, EGFR, and cytokeratin (CK)5/6, we estimated case-only and case-control ORs for established breast cancer risk factors among cases (n = 2,354) and controls (n = 2,932) in the African American Breast Cancer Epidemiology and Risk (AMBER) consortium. ORs were estimated by ER status and intrinsic subtype using adjusted logistic regression. RESULTS: Case-only analyses by ER status showed etiologic heterogeneity by age at menarche, parity (vs. nulliparity), and age at first birth. In case-control analyses for intrinsic subtype, increased body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) were associated with increased risk of luminal A subtype, whereas older age at menarche and parity, regardless of breastfeeding, were associated with reduced risk. For basal-like cancers, parity without breastfeeding and increasing WHR were associated with increased risk, whereas breastfeeding and age ≥25 years at first birth were associated with reduced risk among parous women. Basal-like and ER-/HER2+ subtypes had earlier age-at-incidence distribution relative to luminal subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer subtypes showed distinct etiologic profiles in the AMBER consortium, a study of more than 5,000 black women with centrally assessed tumor biospecimens. IMPACT: Among black women, high WHR and parity without breastfeeding are emerging as important intervention points to reduce the incidence of basal-like breast cancer.

Nat Commun ; 11(1): 3353, 2020 07 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32620889


Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the identification of hundreds of susceptibility loci across cancers, but the impact of further studies remains uncertain. Here we analyse summary-level data from GWAS of European ancestry across fourteen cancer sites to estimate the number of common susceptibility variants (polygenicity) and underlying effect-size distribution. All cancers show a high degree of polygenicity, involving at a minimum of thousands of loci. We project that sample sizes required to explain 80% of GWAS heritability vary from 60,000 cases for testicular to over 1,000,000 cases for lung cancer. The maximum relative risk achievable for subjects at the 99th risk percentile of underlying polygenic risk scores (PRS), compared to average risk, ranges from 12 for testicular to 2.5 for ovarian cancer. We show that PRS have potential for risk stratification for cancers of breast, colon and prostate, but less so for others because of modest heritability and lower incidence.

Predisposição Genética para Doença , Modelos Genéticos , Herança Multifatorial , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Animais , Feminino , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Neoplasias/genética , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Medição de Risco/métodos , Fatores de Risco