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Q J R Meteorol Soc ; 145(Suppl 1): 176-209, 2019 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31787783


Since the first International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) multi-model ensemble (MME) study, the number of ICAP global operational aerosol models has increased from five to nine. An update of the current ICAP status is provided, along with an evaluation of the performance of ICAP-MME over 2012-2017, with a focus on June 2016-May 2017. Evaluated with ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and data assimilation quality MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieval products, the ICAP-MME AOD consensus remains the overall top-scoring and most consistent performer among all models in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias and correlation for total, fine- and coarse-mode AODs as well as dust AOD; this is similar to the first ICAP-MME study. Further, over the years, the performance of ICAP-MME is relatively stable and reliable compared to more variability in the individual models. The extent to which the AOD forecast error of ICAP-MME can be predicted is also examined. Leading predictors are found to be the consensus mean and spread. Regression models of absolute forecast errors were built for AOD forecasts of different lengths for potential applications. ICAP-MME performance in terms of modal AOD RMSEs of the 21 regionally representative sites over 2012-2017 suggests a general tendency for model improvements in fine-mode AOD, especially over Asia. No significant improvement in coarse-mode AOD is found overall for this time period.

Atmos Chem Phys ; 18(14): 10199-10218, 2018 Jul 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30450115


The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives. This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition. This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100 × 100 m2 within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined. Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20 % reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat.

Sci Total Environ ; 390(2-3): 323-40, 2008 Feb 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18045658


The high levels of air pollutants over the North-Western Mediterranean (NWM) exceed the thresholds set in current air quality regulations. They demand a detailed diagnosis of those areas where the exceedances of thresholds related to human health are found. In this sense, there is a need for modelling studies for the specific area of the NWM that take into account the annual cycle to address the diagnosis of air pollution. A new approach to the modelling of air quality in the NWM has been adopted by combining the WRF-EMICAT-CMAQ-DREAM modelling system to diagnose the current status of the levels of photochemical air pollution (focusing on ozone, O(3); nitrogen dioxide, NO(2); carbon monoxide, CO; and particulate matter, PM10) in the area during an annual cycle (year 2004). The complexity of the area of study requires the application of high spatial and temporal resolution (2 km and 1 h). The annual simulations need to cover the complex different meteorological situations and types of episodes of air pollution in the area of study. The outputs of the modelling system are evaluated against observations from 52 meteorological and 59 air quality stations belonging to the Environmental Department of the Catalonia Government (Spain), which involve a dense and accurate spatial distribution of stations in the territory (32,215 km(2)). The results indicate a good behaviour of the model in both coastal and inland areas of the NWM, with a slight trend to the overestimation of tropospheric O(3) concentrations and the underestimation of other photochemical pollutants (NO(2), CO and PM10). The modelling diagnosis indicates that the main air quality-related problems in the NWM are the exceedances of the 1-hr O(3) information threshold set in the Directive 2002/3/EC (180 microg m(-3)) as a consequence of the transport of O(3) precursors downwind the Barcelona Greater Area (BGA); and the exceedances of the annual value for the protection of human health for NO(2) and PM10 (40 microg m(-3), Directive 1999/30/EC), both in the BGA, as a consequence of the high traffic-related emissions.

Poluentes Atmosféricos , Modelos Teóricos , Movimentos do Ar , Monóxido de Carbono , Dispositivos de Armazenamento em Computador , Conceitos Meteorológicos , Dióxido de Nitrogênio , Ozônio , Material Particulado , Espanha