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1.
Glob Chang Biol ; 2020 May 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32415896

RESUMO

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20o N, 156o W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (P < 0.01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing-down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing-down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing-down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO2 fertilization. This challenges the view that CO2 fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land-atmosphere CO2 flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.

2.
Glob Chang Biol ; 26(2): 807-822, 2020 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31437337

RESUMO

A multitude of disturbance agents, such as wildfires, land use, and climate-driven expansion of woody shrubs, is transforming the distribution of plant functional types across Arctic-Boreal ecosystems, which has significant implications for interactions and feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems and climate in the northern high-latitude. However, because the spatial resolution of existing land cover datasets is too coarse, large-scale land cover changes in the Arctic-Boreal region (ABR) have been poorly characterized. Here, we use 31 years (1984-2014) of moderate spatial resolution (30 m) satellite imagery over a region spanning 4.7 × 106  km2 in Alaska and northwestern Canada to characterize regional-scale ABR land cover changes. We find that 13.6 ± 1.3% of the domain has changed, primarily via two major modes of transformation: (a) simultaneous disturbance-driven decreases in Evergreen Forest area (-14.7 ± 3.0% relative to 1984) and increases in Deciduous Forest area (+14.8 ± 5.2%) in the Boreal biome; and (b) climate-driven expansion of Herbaceous and Shrub vegetation (+7.4 ± 2.0%) in the Arctic biome. By using time series of 30 m imagery, we characterize dynamics in forest and shrub cover occurring at relatively short spatial scales (hundreds of meters) due to fires, harvest, and climate-induced growth that are not observable in coarse spatial resolution (e.g., 500 m or greater pixel size) imagery. Wildfires caused most of Evergreen Forest Loss and Evergreen Forest Gain and substantial areas of Deciduous Forest Gain. Extensive shifts in the distribution of plant functional types at multiple spatial scales are consistent with observations of increased atmospheric CO2 seasonality and ecosystem productivity at northern high-latitudes and signal continental-scale shifts in the structure and function of northern high-latitude ecosystems in response to climate change.

3.
Environ Sci Technol ; 53(16): 9636-9645, 2019 Aug 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31347357

RESUMO

California methane (CH4) emissions are quantified for three years from two tower networks and one aircraft campaign. We used backward trajectory simulations and a mesoscale Bayesian inverse model, initialized by three inventories, to achieve the emission quantification. Results show total statewide CH4 emissions of 2.05 ± 0.26 (at 95% confidence) Tg/yr, which is 1.14 to 1.47 times greater than the anthropogenic emission estimates by California Air Resource Board (CARB). Some of differences could be biogenic emissions, superemitter point sources, and other episodic emissions which may not be completely included in the CARB inventory. San Joaquin Valley (SJV) has the largest CH4 emissions (0.94 ± 0.18 Tg/yr), followed by the South Coast Air Basin, the Sacramento Valley, and the San Francisco Bay Area at 0.39 ± 0.18, 0.21 ± 0.04, and 0.16 ± 0.05 Tg/yr, respectively. The dairy and oil/gas production sources in the SJV contribute 0.44 ± 0.36 and 0.22 ± 0.23 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. This study has important policy implications for regulatory programs, as it provides a thorough multiyear evaluation of the emissions inventory using independent atmospheric measurements and investigates the utility of a complementary multiplatform approach in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of CH4 emissions in the state and identifies opportunities for the expansion and applications of the monitoring network.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Metano , Aeronaves , Teorema de Bayes , California , São Francisco
4.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30297462

RESUMO

In early 2016, we predicted that the annual rise in carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa would be the largest on record. Our forecast used a statistical relationship between observed and forecast sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region and the annual CO2 rise. Here, we provide a formal verification of that forecast. The observed rise of 3.4 ppm relative to 2015 was within the forecast range of 3.15 ± 0.53 ppm, so the prediction was successful. A global terrestrial biosphere model supports the expectation that the El Niño weakened the tropical land carbon sink. We estimate that the El Niño contributed approximately 25% to the record rise in CO2, with 75% due to anthropogenic emissions. The 2015/2016 CO2 rise was greater than that following the previous large El Niño in 1997/1998, because anthropogenic emissions had increased. We had also correctly predicted that 2016 would be the first year with monthly mean CO2 above 400 ppm all year round. We now estimate that atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa would have remained above 400 ppm all year round in 2016 even if the El Niño had not occurred, contrary to our previous expectations based on a simple extrapolation of previous trends.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Sequestro de Carbono , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Temperatura , Atmosfera/análise , Modelos Teóricos
5.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 114(39): 10361-10366, 2017 09 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28893986

RESUMO

A decrease in the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 has been documented by direct observations since 1978 and from ice core measurements since the industrial revolution. This decrease, known as the 13C-Suess effect, is driven primarily by the input of fossil fuel-derived CO2 but is also sensitive to land and ocean carbon cycling and uptake. Using updated records, we show that no plausible combination of sources and sinks of CO2 from fossil fuel, land, and oceans can explain the observed 13C-Suess effect unless an increase has occurred in the 13C/12C isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis. A trend toward greater discrimination under higher CO2 levels is broadly consistent with tree ring studies over the past century, with field and chamber experiments, and with geological records of C3 plants at times of altered atmospheric CO2, but increasing discrimination has not previously been included in studies of long-term atmospheric 13C/12C measurements. We further show that the inferred discrimination increase of 0.014 ± 0.007‰ ppm-1 is largely explained by photorespiratory and mesophyll effects. This result implies that, at the global scale, land plants have regulated their stomatal conductance so as to allow the CO2 partial pressure within stomatal cavities and their intrinsic water use efficiency to increase in nearly constant proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration.


Assuntos
Atmosfera/análise , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Mudança Climática , Plantas/metabolismo , Água/metabolismo , Ciclo do Carbono/fisiologia , Isótopos de Carbono/análise , Combustíveis Fósseis/análise , Fotossíntese/fisiologia
7.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30984251

RESUMO

We report continuous surface observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from the Los Angeles (LA) Megacity Carbon Project during 2015. We devised a calibration strategy, methods for selection of background air masses, calculation of urban enhancements, and a detailed algorithm for estimating uncertainties in urban-scale CO2 and CH4 measurements. These methods are essential for understanding carbon fluxes from the LA megacity and other complex urban environments globally. We estimate background mole fractions entering LA using observations from four "extra-urban" sites including two "marine" sites located south of LA in La Jolla (LJO) and offshore on San Clemente Island (SCI), one "continental" site located in Victorville (VIC), in the high desert northeast of LA, and one "continental/mid-troposphere" site located on Mount Wilson (MWO) in the San Gabriel Mountains. We find that a local marine background can be established to within ~1 ppm CO2 and ~10 ppb CH4 using these local measurement sites. Overall, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are highly variable across Los Angeles. "Urban" and "suburban" sites show moderate to large CO2 and CH4 enhancements relative to a marine background estimate. The USC (University of Southern California) site near downtown LA exhibits median hourly enhancements of ~20 ppm CO2 and ~150 ppb CH4 during 2015 as well as ~15 ppm CO2 and ~80 ppb CH4 during mid-afternoon hours (12:00-16:00 LT, local time), which is the typical period of focus for flux inversions. The estimated measurement uncertainty is typically better than 0.1 ppm CO2 and 1 ppb CH4 based on the repeated standard gas measurements from the LA sites during the last 2 years, similar to Andrews et al. (2014). The largest component of the measurement uncertainty is due to the single-point calibration method; however, the uncertainty in the background mole fraction is much larger than the measurement uncertainty. The background uncertainty for the marine background estimate is ~10 and ~15 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement near downtown LA for CO2 and CH4, respectively. Overall, analytical and background uncertainties are small relative to the local CO2 and CH4 enhancements; however, our results suggest that reducing the uncertainty to less than 5 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement will require detailed assessment of the impact of meteorology on background conditions.

8.
Science ; 351(6274): 696-9, 2016 Feb 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26797146

RESUMO

Atmospheric monitoring of high northern latitudes (above 40°N) has shown an enhanced seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide (CO2) since the 1960s, but the underlying mechanisms are not yet fully understood. The much stronger increase in high latitudes relative to low ones suggests that northern ecosystems are experiencing large changes in vegetation and carbon cycle dynamics. We found that the latitudinal gradient of the increasing CO2 amplitude is mainly driven by positive trends in photosynthetic carbon uptake caused by recent climate change and mediated by changing vegetation cover in northern ecosystems. Our results underscore the importance of climate-vegetation-carbon cycle feedbacks at high latitudes; moreover, they indicate that in recent decades, photosynthetic carbon uptake has reacted much more strongly to warming than have carbon release processes.


Assuntos
Ciclo do Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Mudança Climática , Plantas/metabolismo , Atmosfera , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental , Fotossíntese , Estações do Ano
9.
Nature ; 477(7366): 579-82, 2011 Sep 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21956330

RESUMO

The stable isotope ratios of atmospheric CO(2) ((18)O/(16)O and (13)C/(12)C) have been monitored since 1977 to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle, because biosphere-atmosphere exchange fluxes affect the different atomic masses in a measurable way. Interpreting the (18)O/(16)O variability has proved difficult, however, because oxygen isotopes in CO(2) are influenced by both the carbon cycle and the water cycle. Previous attention focused on the decreasing (18)O/(16)O ratio in the 1990s, observed by the global Cooperative Air Sampling Network of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. This decrease was attributed variously to a number of processes including an increase in Northern Hemisphere soil respiration; a global increase in C(4) crops at the expense of C(3) forests; and environmental conditions, such as atmospheric turbulence and solar radiation, that affect CO(2) exchange between leaves and the atmosphere. Here we present 30 years' worth of data on (18)O/(16)O in CO(2) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography global flask network and show that the interannual variability is strongly related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. We suggest that the redistribution of moisture and rainfall in the tropics during an El Niño increases the (18)O/(16)O ratio of precipitation and plant water, and that this signal is then passed on to atmospheric CO(2) by biosphere-atmosphere gas exchange. We show how the decay time of the El Niño anomaly in this data set can be useful in constraining global gross primary production. Our analysis shows a rapid recovery from El Niño events, implying a shorter cycling time of CO(2) with respect to the terrestrial biosphere and oceans than previously estimated. Our analysis suggests that current estimates of global gross primary production, of 120 petagrams of carbon per year, may be too low, and that a best guess of 150-175 petagrams of carbon per year better reflects the observed rapid cycling of CO(2). Although still tentative, such a revision would present a new benchmark by which to evaluate global biospheric carbon cycling models.


Assuntos
Atmosfera/química , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Dióxido de Carbono/química , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Isótopos de Oxigênio/análise , Ciclo do Carbono/fisiologia , Produtos Agrícolas/metabolismo , Umidade , Chuva , Solo/análise , Solo/química , Árvores/metabolismo , Água/metabolismo
10.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci ; 369(1943): 1885-90, 2011 May 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21502164

RESUMO

What do we need to know about greenhouse gases? Over the next 20 years, how should scientists study the role of greenhouse gases in the Earth system and the changes that are taking place? These questions were addressed at a Royal Society scientific Discussion Meeting in London on 22-23 February 2010, with over 300 participants.

11.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci ; 369(1943): 2113-32, 2011 May 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21502179

RESUMO

Compared with other industrial processes, carbon capture and storage (CCS) will have an unusual impact on atmospheric composition by reducing the CO(2) released from fossil-fuel combustion plants, but not reducing the associated O(2) loss. CO(2) that leaks into the air from below-ground CCS sites will also be unusual in lacking the O(2) deficit normally associated with typical land CO(2) sources, such as from combustion or ecosystem exchanges. CCS may also produce distinct isotopic changes in atmospheric CO(2). Using simple models and calculations, we estimate the impact of CCS or leakage on regional atmospheric composition. We also estimate the possible impact on global atmospheric composition, assuming that the technology is widely adopted. Because of its unique signature, CCS may be especially amenable to monitoring, both regionally and globally, using atmospheric observing systems. Measurements of the O(2)/N(2) ratio and the CO(2) concentration in the proximity of a CCS site may allow detection of point leaks of the order of 1000 ton CO(2) yr(-1) from a CCS reservoir up to 1 km from the source. Measurements of O(2)/N(2) and CO(2) in background air from a global network may allow quantification of global and hemispheric capture rates from CCS to the order of ±0.4 Pg C yr(-1).

12.
Ann Rev Mar Sci ; 2: 199-229, 2010.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21141663

RESUMO

Ocean warming and increased stratification of the upper ocean caused by global climate change will likely lead to declines in dissolved O2 in the ocean interior (ocean deoxygenation) with implications for ocean productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon cycling, and marine habitat. Ocean models predict declines of 1 to 7% in the global ocean O2 inventory over the next century, with declines continuing for a thousand years or more into the future. An important consequence may be an expansion in the area and volume of so-called oxygen minimum zones, where O2 levels are too low to support many macrofauna and profound changes in biogeochemical cycling occur. Significant deoxygenation has occurred over the past 50 years in the North Pacific and tropical oceans, suggesting larger changes are looming. The potential for larger O2 declines in the future suggests the need for an improved observing system for tracking ocean 02 changes.


Assuntos
Aquecimento Global , Oxigênio/química , Água do Mar/química , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental , Oceanos e Mares
13.
Adv Mar Biol ; 56: 1-150, 2009.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19895974

RESUMO

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Movimentos do Ar , Animais , Regiões Antárticas , Regiões Árticas , Atmosfera , Dióxido de Carbono , Ecossistema , Oceanografia , Oceanos e Mares , Movimentos da Água
14.
Science ; 319(5871): 1771-2, 2008 Mar 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18369129
15.
Science ; 316(5830): 1440-1, 2007 Jun 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17495137
16.
Science ; 316(5825): 709, 2007 May 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17272686

RESUMO

We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.

17.
Science ; 311(5766): 1429, 2006 Mar 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16527973

RESUMO

The separation of atmospheric constituents by gravity has been proposed theoretically for almost two centuries. However, turbulent mixing has prevented the detection of this phenomenon in the lower atmosphere. By using precise measurements of the Ar/N2 ratio of air samples taken under strong nocturnal inversions, we have detected such separation in near-surface layers. The effect is shown to be consistent with combined influence of thermal and gravimetric separation, with the thermal contribution being more important.

18.
19.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 99(12): 7848-53, 2002 Jun 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12048249

RESUMO

Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O(2) inventory and an associated O(2) outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial, natural O(2) flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol of O(2) per joule of warming, with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and over longer time scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O(2) solubility, indicating that most of the O(2) exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O(2) inventory through the 1990s is estimated to be 0.3 +/- 0.4 x 10(14) mol of O(2) per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O(2) flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O(2)/N(2) ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon.


Assuntos
Efeito Estufa , Oxigênio/análise , Água do Mar/análise , Temperatura
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