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1.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(8): e2120456, 2021 08 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34379123

RESUMO

Importance: Prior studies on COVID-19 and pregnancy have reported higher rates of cesarean delivery and preterm birth and increased morbidity and mortality. Additional data encompassing a longer time period are needed. Objective: To examine characteristics and outcomes of a large US cohort of women who underwent childbirth with vs without COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study compared characteristics and outcomes of women (age ≥18 years) who underwent childbirth with vs without COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021, at 499 US academic medical centers or community affiliates. Follow-up was limited to in-hospital course and discharge destination. Childbirth was defined by clinical classification software procedural codes of 134-137. A diagnosis of COVID-19 was identified using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis of U07.1. Data were analyzed from April 1 to April 30, 2021. Exposures: The presence of a COVID-19 diagnosis using ICD-10. Main Outcomes and Measures: Analyses compared demographic characteristics, gestational age, and comorbidities. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included hospital length of stay, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and discharge status. Continuous variables were analyzed using t test, and categorical variables were analyzed using χ2. Results: Among 869 079 women, 18 715 (2.2%) had COVID-19, and 850 364 (97.8%) did not. Most women were aged 18 to 30 years (11 550 women with COVID-19 [61.7%]; 447 534 women without COVID-19 [52.6%]) and were White (8060 White women [43.1%] in the COVID-19 cohort; 499 501 White women (58.7%) in the non-COVID-19 cohort). There was no significant increase in cesarean delivery among women with COVID-19 (6088 women [32.5%] vs 273 810 women [32.3%]; P = .57). Women with COVID-19 were more likely to have preterm birth (3072 women [16.4%] vs 97 967 women [11.5%]; P < .001). Women giving birth with COVID-19, compared with women without COVID-19, had significantly higher rates of ICU admission (977 women [5.2%] vs 7943 women [0.9%]; odds ratio [OR], 5.84 [95% CI, 5.46-6.25]; P < .001), respiratory intubation and mechanical ventilation (275 women [1.5%] vs 884 women [0.1%]; OR, 14.33 [95% CI, 12.50-16.42]; P < .001), and in-hospital mortality (24 women [0.1%] vs 71 [<0.01%]; OR, 15.38 [95% CI, 9.68-24.43]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This retrospective cohort study found that women with COVID-19 giving birth had higher rates of mortality, intubation, ICU admission, and preterm birth than women without COVID-19.


Assuntos
COVID-19/mortalidade , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Nascimento Prematuro/epidemiologia , Centros Médicos Acadêmicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , COVID-19/terapia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Cesárea/estatística & dados numéricos , Bases de Dados Factuais , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Intubação Intratraqueal/estatística & dados numéricos , Tempo de Internação/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Gravidez , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/mortalidade , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/terapia , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
2.
PLoS One ; 16(7): e0254066, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34242273

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a global threat, with tremendous resources invested into identifying risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness. The objective of this study was to analyze the characteristics and outcomes of male compared to female adults with COVID-19 who required hospitalization within US academic centers. METHODS: Using the Vizient clinical database, discharge records of adults with a diagnosis of COVID-19 between March 1, 2020 and November 30, 2020 were reviewed. Outcome measures included demographics, characteristics, length of hospital stay, rate of respiratory intubation and mechanical ventilation, and rate of in-hospital mortality of male vs female according to age, race/ethnicity, and presence of preexisting comorbidities. RESULTS: Among adults with COVID-19, 161,206 were male while 146,804 were female. Adult males with COVID-19 were more likely to have hypertension (62.1% vs 59.6%, p <0.001%), diabetes (39.2% vs 36.0%, p <0.001%), renal failure (22.3% vs 18.1%, p <0.001%), congestive heart failure (15.3% vs 14.6%, p <0.001%), and liver disease (5.9% vs 4.5%, p <0.001%). Adult females with COVID-19 were more likely to be obese (32.3% vs 25.7%, p<0.001) and have chronic pulmonary disease (23.7% vs 18.1%, p <0.001). Gender was significantly different among races (p<0.001), and there was a lower proportion of males versus females in African American patients with COVID-19. Comparison in outcomes of male vs. female adults with COVID-19 is depicted in Table 2. Compared to females, males with COVID-19 had a higher rate of in-hospital mortality (13.8% vs 10.2%, respectively, p <0.001); a higher rate of respiratory intubation (21.4% vs 14.6%, p <0.001); and a longer length of hospital stay (9.5 ± 12.5 days vs. 7.8 ± 9.8 days, p<0.001). In-hospital mortality analyzed according to age groups, race/ethnicity, payers, and presence of preexisting comorbidities consistently showed higher death rate among males compared to females (Table 2). Adult males with COVID-19 were associated with higher odds of mortality compared to their female counterparts across all age groups, with the effect being most pronounced in the 18-30 age group (OR, 3.02 [95% CI, 2.41-3.78]). CONCLUSION: This large analysis of 308,010 COVID-19 adults hospitalized at US academic centers showed that males have a higher rate of respiratory intubation and longer length of hospital stay compared to females and have a higher death rate even when compared across age groups, race/ethnicity, payers, and comorbidity.


Assuntos
COVID-19/tratamento farmacológico , COVID-19/mortalidade , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Hospitalização , Caracteres Sexuais , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores Sexuais , Estados Unidos
4.
Emerg Med Australas ; 31(6): 974-981, 2019 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30983137

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The aims of the present study were to derive and validate a clinical decision rule (CDR) to rule out the need for computed tomography of the brain (CTB) in non-traumatic patients who present to the ED. METHODS: This is a retrospective review of non-traumatic patients who presented to the EDs in two urban hospitals and received CTB from January 2014 to December 2016. Data from one hospital were used to develop a CDR for clinically significant CTB findings. Clinically significant CTB findings were defined as acute infarction, intracranial neoplasm, intracranial haemorrhage, acute hydrocephalus, cerebral oedema and intracranial infection. Patients from another hospital were used as a validation cohort to evaluate the CDR and compare it to four previously derived CDRs. RESULTS: There were 5296 cases in the derivation cohort, with 345 (6.5%) clinically significant CTB findings. Identified risk factors were: focal neurological deficit (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6-4.4), Glasgow Coma Scale <15 (adjusted OR 3.5, 95% CI 2.6-4.6), history of malignancy (adjusted OR 3.2, 95% CI 2.4-4.2), nausea and/or vomiting (adjusted OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.1), headache (adjusted OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.9-1.5) and coagulopathy (adjusted OR 9.2, 95% CI 2.1-41.5). These criteria and four pre-existing CDRs were applied to the validation cohort of 5098 patients from the second hospital, which had 338 (6.6%) clinically significant CTB findings. Our criteria were found to have a sensitivity of 99.7% (95% CI 99.1-100.0) and a specificity of 11.0% (95% CI 10.1-11.9). The risk of having a clinically significant CTB finding is 0.3% if patients do not meet any of the criteria. CONCLUSION: The CDR derived in the present study achieved the highest sensitivity and a moderate specificity when compared with four other pre-existing CDRs for non-traumatic brain injury patients.


Assuntos
Encefalopatias/diagnóstico por imagem , Regras de Decisão Clínica , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco
5.
Clin Toxicol (Phila) ; 57(7): 638-643, 2019 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30585517

RESUMO

Introduction: In our previous study on chronic digoxin poisoning, there was a minor improvement after treatment with digoxin-specific antibody (digoxin-Fab). We hypothesised patients with elevated digoxin concentrations may derive little benefit from digoxin-Fab because their presenting complaint was more closely related to their multiple co-morbidities. We aimed to compare the outcome of patients who were initially treated with digoxin-Fab with those that received supportive care. Method: Patients were prospectively recruited to the study if they had an elevated digoxin concentration, signs or symptoms of toxicity thought to be from digoxin. Patients who were initially managed with digoxin-Fab were compared with those not initially receiving digoxin-Fab (observation group). Patients presented with ventricular arrhythmias before initial assessment were excluded from the analysis. Primary outcome was mortality. Secondary outcomes were length of stay (LOS), change in heart rate (HR) and potassium concentration. Results: From September 2013 to January 2018, 128 patients were recruited of which 78 (61%) received initial digoxin-Fab. Digoxin-Fab and supportive care groups had an initial median heart rate of 46 (range: 20-120) vs 52 bpm (range: 29-91) (p = .06), systolic blood pressure of 110 mmHg (range: 65-180) vs 125 mmHg (range: 90-184) (p = .009), respectively. Digoxin concentrations 4.4 nmol/L (range: 3.3-9) vs 4.2 (range: 2-11.2) (p = .42) and potassium concentrations 5.4 mmol/L (range: 3-11) vs 5.1 mmol/L (range: 3.5-8.2) (p = .33) were similar. Median dose of digoxin-Fab used was 1.5 vials (IQR: 1-2). There were 9 (12%) deaths in the Fab group compared to 7 (14%) in those treated with supportive care (risk difference -2.5%; 95% CI: -14 to 9%; p = .68). The median LOS was six days in both groups. Mean changes in potassium concentration [-0.5 ± 0.1 vs. -0.4 ± 0.1 mmol/L; difference -0.1 (95% CI: -.02, 0.4), p = .70] and HR within 4 h [8 ± 1 vs. 7 ± 3 bpm; difference -1.0 (95% CI: -6.7, 4.8), p = 0.74] were similar in the two groups. Conclusions: This study did not appear to show any benefit from the routine use of digoxin-Fab in patients thought to have chronic digoxin poisoning. These patients have multiple co-morbidities that may be contributing to their clinical features, other treatments are often equally effective.


Assuntos
Antiarrítmicos/envenenamento , Digoxina/envenenamento , Frequência Cardíaca/efeitos dos fármacos , Fragmentos Fab das Imunoglobulinas/administração & dosagem , Potássio/metabolismo , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Antiarrítmicos/administração & dosagem , Doença Crônica , Digoxina/administração & dosagem , Feminino , Humanos , Tempo de Internação , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos
6.
Suicide Life Threat Behav ; 49(1): 293-302, 2019 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29498087

RESUMO

The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between alcohol co-ingestion in an index deliberate self-poisoning (DSP) episode with repeated DSP and subsequent suicide. A retrospective cohort study was conducted involving 5,669 consecutive index presentations to a toxicology service following DSP between January 1, 1996, and October 31, 2010. Records were probabilistically matched to National Coronial Information System data to identify subsequent suicide. Index DSPs were categorized on co-ingestion of alcohol, and primary outcomes analyzed were repetition of any DSP, rates of repeated DSP, time to first repeat DSP, and subsequent suicide. Co-ingestion of alcohol occurred in 35.9% of index admissions. There was no difference between those who co-ingested alcohol (ALC+) and those who did not co-ingest alcohol (ALC-) in terms of proportion of repeat DSP, number of DSP events, or time to first repeat DSP event. Forty-one (1.0%) cases were probabilistically matched to a suicide death; there was no difference in the proportion of suicide between ALC+ and ALC- at 1 or 3 years. There was no significant relationship between the co-ingestion of alcohol in an index DSP and subsequent repeated DSP or suicide. Clinically, this highlights the importance of mental health assessment of patients that present after DSP, irrespective of alcohol co-ingestion at the time of event.


Assuntos
Etanol/envenenamento , Comportamento Autodestrutivo/psicologia , Tentativa de Suicídio/psicologia , Suicídio/psicologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Feminino , Hospitalização , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Adulto Jovem
7.
Clin Toxicol (Phila) ; 56(9): 810-819, 2018 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29451045

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Modified-release (MR) paracetamol is available in many countries as 665 mg tablets of which 69% is MR and 31% is immediate release. There are concerns that MR paracetamol overdose has higher rates of liver injury despite standard treatment algorithms. The objective of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of acute MR paracetamol overdose. METHODS: Prospective observational study, recruiting patients from January 2013 to June 2017, from five clinical toxicology units and calls to two Poisons Information Centres in Australia. Included were patients >14 years who ingested ≥10 g or 200 mg/kg (whichever is less) of MR paracetamol. Data collected included demographics, ingestion history, pathology results, treatments, and outcomes including hepatotoxicity (ALT >1000 U/L). RESULTS: In total, 116 patients were recruited, 85(73%) were female. The median dose ingested was 32 g (IQR: 20-49 g) and median time to presentation was 3 h (IQR: 2-9 h). 78(67%) had an initial paracetamol concentration above the nomogram line (150 mg/L at 4 h). A further 12(10%) crossed the nomogram after repeat paracetamol measurements, of which five crossed after two non-toxic levels 4 h apart. Six had a double paracetamol peak, in three occurring >24 h post-ingestion. 113(97%) received acetylcysteine of which 67 received prolonged treatment beyond the standard 21 h. This was because of an elevated paracetamol concentration at the completion of acetylcysteine in 39 (median paracetamol concentration 25 mg/L, IQR: 16-62 mg/L). 21 (18%) developed hepatotoxicity, including six treated within 8 h of ingestion. Activated charcoal and double doses of acetylcysteine did not significantly decrease the risk of hepatotoxicity. CONCLUSIONS: Drug regulatory authorities are considering restrictions on MR paracetamol preparations. Following an acute MR paracetamol overdose, this study found that many patients had a persistently elevated paracetamol concentrations, many required prolonged treatment and some developed liver injury despite early acetylcysteine treatment. Furthermore, activated charcoal and increased acetylcysteine did not appear to significantly alter the risk of liver injury. Hence, research into better treatment strategies is required. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian Toxicology Monitoring (ATOM) Study - Australian Paracetamol Project: ACTRN12612001240831 (ANZCTR) Date of registration: 23/11/2012.


Assuntos
Acetaminofen/envenenamento , Analgésicos não Narcóticos/envenenamento , Carvão Vegetal/uso terapêutico , Doença Hepática Induzida por Substâncias e Drogas/tratamento farmacológico , Doença Hepática Induzida por Substâncias e Drogas/etiologia , Preparações de Ação Retardada/envenenamento , Overdose de Drogas/tratamento farmacológico , Adulto , Austrália , Relação Dose-Resposta a Droga , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Adulto Jovem
8.
Clin Toxicol (Phila) ; 55(10): 1055-1065, 2017 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28644687

RESUMO

CONTEXT: Paracetamol is commonly taken in overdose, with increasing concerns that those taking "massive" overdoses have higher rates of hepatotoxicity and may require higher doses of acetylcysteine. The objective was to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of "massive" (≥ 40 g) paracetamol overdoses. METHODS: Patients were identified through the Australian Paracetamol Project, a prospective observational study through Poisons Information Centres in NSW and Queensland, over 3 and 1.5 years, respectively, and retrospectively from three clinical toxicology unit databases (over 2.5 to 20 years). Included were immediate-release paracetamol overdoses ≥ 40 g ingested over ≤ 8 h. Outcomes measured included paracetamol ratio[defined as the ratio of the first paracetamol concentration taken 4-16 h post-ingestion to the standard (150 mg/L at 4 h) nomogram line at that time] and hepatotoxicity (ALT >1000 U/L). RESULTS: Two hundred paracetamol overdoses were analysed, reported median dose ingested was 50 g (interquartile range (IQR): 45-60 g) and median paracetamol ratio 1.9 (IQR: 1.4-2.9, n = 173). One hundred and ninety-three received acetylcysteine at median time of 6.3 h (IQR: 4-9.3 h) post-ingestion. Twenty-eight (14%) developed hepatotoxicity, including six treated within 8 h of ingestion. Activated charcoal was administered to 49(25%), at median of 2 h post-ingestion (IQR:1.5-5 h). Those receiving activated charcoal (within 4 h of ingestion), had significantly lower paracetamol ratio versus those who did not: 1.4 (n = 33, IQR: 1.1-1.6) versus 2.2 (n = 140, IQR: 1.5-3.0) (p < .0001) (paracetamol concentration measured ≥ 1 h after charcoal). Furthermore, they had lower rates of hepatotoxicity [unadjusted OR: 0.12 (95% CI: <0.001-0.91); adjusted for time to acetylcysteine OR: 0.20 (95%CI: 0.002-1.74)]. Seventy-nine had a paracetamol ratio ≥2, 43 received an increased dose of acetylcysteine in the first 21 h; most commonly a double dose in the last bag (100 to 200 mg/kg/16 h). Those receiving increased acetylcysteine had a significant decrease risk of hepatotoxicity [OR:0.27 (95% CI: 0.08-0.94)]. The OR remained similar after adjustment for time to acetylcysteine and paracetamol ratio. CONCLUSION: Massive paracetamol overdose can result in hepatotoxicity despite early treatment. Paracetamol concentrations were markedly reduced in those receiving activated charcoal within 4 h. In those with high paracetamol concentrations, treatment with increased acetylcysteine dose within 21 h was associated with a significant reduction in hepatotoxicity.


Assuntos
Acetaminofen/envenenamento , Acetilcisteína/uso terapêutico , Carvão Vegetal/uso terapêutico , Doença Hepática Induzida por Substâncias e Drogas/etiologia , Overdose de Drogas/tratamento farmacológico , Acetilcisteína/administração & dosagem , Adulto , Austrália/epidemiologia , Carvão Vegetal/administração & dosagem , Doença Hepática Induzida por Substâncias e Drogas/epidemiologia , Doença Hepática Induzida por Substâncias e Drogas/prevenção & controle , Bases de Dados Factuais , Relação Dose-Resposta a Droga , Intervenção Médica Precoce , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Centros de Controle de Intoxicações , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Resultado do Tratamento
9.
Clin Infect Dis ; 62(3): 313-319, 2016 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26565010

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) is a major cause of allograft loss post-lung transplantation. Prior studies have examined the association between respiratory virus infection (RVI) and CLAD were limited by older diagnostic techniques, study design, and case numbers. We examined the association between symptomatic RVI and CLAD using modern diagnostic techniques in a large contemporary cohort of lung transplant recipients (LTRs). METHODS: We retrospectively assessed clinical variables including acute rejection, cytomegalovirus pneumonia, upper and lower RVI, and the primary endpoint of CLAD (determined by 2 independent reviewers) in 250 LTRs in a single university transplantation program. Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to analyze the relationship between RVI and CLAD in a time-dependent manner, incorporating different periods of risk following RVI diagnosis. RESULTS: Fifty patients (20%) were diagnosed with CLAD at a median of 95 weeks post-transplantation, and 79 (32%) had 114 episodes of RVI. In multivariate analysis, rejection and RVI were independently associated with CLAD (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) 2.2 (1.2-3.9), P = .01 and 1.9 (1.1-3.5), P = .03, respectively. The association of RVI with CLAD was stronger the more proximate the RVI episode: 4.8 (1.9-11.6), P < .01; 3.4 (1.5-7.5), P < .01; and 2.4 (1.2-5.0), P = .02 in multivariate analysis for 3, 6, and 12 months following RVI, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Symptomatic RVI is independently associated with development of CLAD, with increased risk at shorter time periods following RVI. Prospective studies to characterize the virologic determinants of CLAD and define the underlying mechanisms are warranted.


Assuntos
Aloenxertos , Rejeição de Enxerto/epidemiologia , Rejeição de Enxerto/etiologia , Transplante de Pulmão , Infecções Respiratórias/complicações , Transplantados , Viroses/complicações , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Hospitais Universitários , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infecções Respiratórias/virologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Adulto Jovem
10.
Crit Care Med ; 43(7): 1415-22, 2015 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25821919

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Human herpesvirus 6 is associated with a variety of complications in immunocompromised patients, but no studies have systematically and comprehensively assessed the impact of human herpesvirus 6 reactivation, and its interaction with cytomegalovirus, in ICU patients. DESIGN: We prospectively assessed human herpesvirus 6 and cytomegalovirus viremia by twice-weekly plasma polymerase chain reaction in a longitudinal cohort study of 115 adult, immunocompetent ICU patients. The association of human herpesvirus 6 and cytomegalovirus reactivation with death or continued hospitalization by day 30 (primary endpoint) was assessed by multivariable logistic regression analyses. SETTING: This study was performed in trauma, medical, surgical, and cardiac ICUs at two separate hospitals of a large tertiary care academic medical center. PATIENTS: A total of 115 cytomegalovirus seropositive, immunocompetent adults with critical illness were enrolled in this study. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Human herpesvirus 6 viremia occurred in 23% of patients at a median of 10 days. Human herpesvirus 6B was the species detected in eight samples available for testing. Most patients with human herpesvirus 6 reactivation also reactivated cytomegalovirus (70%). Severity of illness was not associated with viral reactivation. Mechanical ventilation, burn ICU, major infection, human herpesvirus 6 reactivation, and cytomegalovirus reactivation were associated with the primary endpoint in unadjusted analyses. In a multivariable model adjusting for mechanical ventilation and ICU type, only coreactivation of human herpesvirus 6 and cytomegalovirus was significantly associated with the primary endpoint (adjusted odds ratio, 7.5; 95% CI, 1.9-29.9; p = 0.005) compared to patients with only human herpesvirus 6, only cytomegalovirus, or no viral reactivation. CONCLUSIONS: Coreactivation of both human herpesvirus 6 and cytomegalovirus in ICU patients is associated with worse outcome than reactivation of either virus alone. Future studies should define the underlying mechanism(s) and determine whether prevention or treatment of viral reactivation improves clinical outcome.


Assuntos
Citomegalovirus/fisiologia , Herpesvirus Humano 6/fisiologia , Viremia/virologia , Ativação Viral , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estado Terminal , Citomegalovirus/isolamento & purificação , Feminino , Herpesvirus Humano 6/isolamento & purificação , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Adulto Jovem
11.
PLoS One ; 9(9): e108540, 2014.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25265291

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend incorporating life expectancy (LE) into clinical decision-making for preventive interventions such as cancer screening. Previous research focused on mortality risk (e.g. 28% at 4 years) which is more difficult to interpret than LE (e.g. 7.3 years) for both patients and clinicians. Our objective was to utilize the Gompertz Law of Human Mortality which states that mortality risk doubles in a fixed time interval to transform the Lee mortality index into a LE calculator. METHODS: We examined community-dwelling older adults age 50 and over enrolled in the nationally representative 1998 wave of the Health and Retirement Study or HRS (response rate 81%), dividing study respondents into development (n = 11701) and validation (n = 8009) cohorts. In the development cohort, we fit proportional hazards Gompertz survival functions for each of the risk groups defined by the Lee mortality index. We validated our LE estimates by comparing our predicted LE with observed survival in the HRS validation cohort and an external validation cohort from the 2004 wave of the English Longitudinal Study on Ageing or ELSA (n = 7042). RESULTS: The ELSA cohort had a lower 8-year mortality risk (14%) compared to our HRS development (23%) and validation cohorts (25%). Our model had good discrimination in the validation cohorts (Harrell's c 0.78 in HRS and 0.80 in the ELSA). Our predicted LE's were similar to observed survival in the HRS validation cohort without evidence of miscalibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow, p = 0.2 at 8 years). However, our predicted LE's were longer than observed survival in the ELSA cohort with evidence of miscalibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow, p<0.001 at 8 years) reflecting the lower mortality rate in ELSA. CONCLUSION: We transformed a previously validated mortality index into a LE calculator that incorporated patient-level risk factors. Our LE calculator may help clinicians determine which preventive interventions are most appropriate for older US adults.


Assuntos
Expectativa de Vida , Longevidade , Mortalidade , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Envelhecimento , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Fatores de Risco
12.
Neurology ; 83(4): 312-9, 2014 Jul 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24966406

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is common in military personnel, and there is growing concern about the long-term effects of TBI on the brain; however, few studies have examined the association between TBI and risk of dementia in veterans. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 188,764 US veterans aged 55 years or older who had at least one inpatient or outpatient visit during both the baseline (2000-2003) and follow-up (2003-2012) periods and did not have a dementia diagnosis at baseline. TBI and dementia diagnoses were determined using ICD-9 codes in electronic medical records. Fine-Gray proportional hazards models were used to determine whether TBI was associated with greater risk of incident dementia, accounting for the competing risk of death and adjusting for demographics, medical comorbidities, and psychiatric disorders. RESULTS: Veterans were a mean age of 68 years at baseline. During the 9-year follow-up period, 16% of those with TBI developed dementia compared with 10% of those without TBI (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval: 1.35-1.83). There was evidence of an additive association between TBI and other conditions on risk of dementia. CONCLUSIONS: TBI in older veterans was associated with a 60% increase in the risk of developing dementia over 9 years after accounting for competing risks and potential confounders. Our results suggest that TBI in older veterans may predispose toward development of symptomatic dementia and raise concern about the potential long-term consequences of TBI in younger veterans and civilians.


Assuntos
Lesões Encefálicas/epidemiologia , Demência/epidemiologia , Veteranos , Idoso , Lesões Encefálicas/complicações , Demência/etiologia , Suscetibilidade a Doenças , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Militares , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Estudos Retrospectivos , Risco , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
13.
Alzheimers Dement ; 10(3 Suppl): S236-41, 2014 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24924674

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether prisoners of war (POWs) are more likely to develop dementia independently of the effects of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in 182,879 U.S. veterans age 55 years and older, and examined associations between POW status and PTSD at baseline (October 1, 2000-September 30, 2003), and incident dementia during follow-up (October 1, 2003-September 30, 2012). RESULTS: A total of 484 veterans (0.3%) reported being POWs, of whom 150 (31.0%) also had PTSD. After adjusting for demographics, medical and psychiatric comorbidities, period of service, and the competing risk of death, the risk of dementia was increased in veterans who were POWs only (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-1.98) or had PTSD only (HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.41-1.64) and was greatest in veterans who were POWs and also had PTSD (HR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.72-2.92). CONCLUSIONS: POW status and PTSD increase risk of dementia in an independent, additive manner in older veterans.


Assuntos
Demência/epidemiologia , Prisioneiros de Guerra , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/epidemiologia , Veteranos , Idoso , Bases de Dados Factuais , Seguimentos , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Estados Unidos , United States Department of Veterans Affairs
14.
Urology ; 83(3): 599-605, 2014 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24439009

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To determine the distribution of screening prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values in older men, and how different PSA thresholds affect the proportion of white, black, and Latino men who would have an abnormal screening result across advancing age groups. METHODS: We used linked national Veterans Affairs and Medicare data to determine the value of the first screening PSA test (ng/mL) of 327,284 men older than 65 years who underwent PSA screening in the Veterans Affairs health care system in 2003. We calculated the proportion of men with an abnormal PSA result based on age, race, and common PSA thresholds. RESULTS: Among men older than 65 years, 8.4% had a PSA >4.0 ng/mL. The percentage of men with a PSA >4.0 ng/mL increased with age and was highest in black men (13.8%) vs white (8.0%) or Latino men (10.0%) (P <.001). Combining age and race, the probability of having a PSA >4.0 ng/mL ranged from 5.1% of Latino men aged 65-69 years to 27.4% of black men older than 85 years. Raising the PSA threshold from >4.0 ng/mL to >10.0 ng/mL reclassified the greatest percentage of black men older than 85 years (18.3% absolute change) and the lowest percentage of Latino men aged 65-69 years (4.8% absolute change) as being under the biopsy threshold (P <.001). CONCLUSION: Age, race, and PSA threshold together affect the pretest probability of an abnormal screening PSA result. Based on screening PSA distributions, stopping screening among men whose PSA <3 ng/mL means more than 80% of white and Latino men older than 70 years would stop further screening, and increasing the biopsy threshold to >10 ng/mL has the greatest effect on reducing the number of older black men who will face biopsy decisions after screening.


Assuntos
Afro-Americanos/estatística & dados numéricos , Grupo com Ancestrais do Continente Europeu/estatística & dados numéricos , Hispano-Americanos/estatística & dados numéricos , Antígeno Prostático Específico/sangue , Neoplasias da Próstata/sangue , Neoplasias da Próstata/etnologia , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , Masculino , Probabilidade , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
15.
JAMA Intern Med ; 173(10): 866-73, 2013 May 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23588999

RESUMO

IMPORTANCE: Despite ongoing controversies surrounding prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, many men 65 years or older undergo screening. However, few data exist that quantify the chain of events following screening in clinical practice to better inform decisions. OBJECTIVE: To quantify 5-year downstream outcomes following a PSA screening result exceeding 4.0 ng/mL in older men. DESIGN AND SETTING: Longitudinal cohort study in the national Veterans Affairs health care system. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 295,645 men 65 years or older who underwent PSA screening in the Veterans Affairs health care system in 2003 and were followed up for 5 years using national Veterans Affairs and Medicare data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Among men whose index screening PSA level exceeded 4.0 ng/mL, we determined the number who underwent prostate biopsy, were diagnosed as having prostate cancer, were treated for prostate cancer, and were treated for prostate cancer and were alive at 5 years according to baseline characteristics. Biopsy and treatment complications were also assessed. RESULTS: In total, 25,208 men (8.5%) had an index PSA level exceeding 4.0 ng/mL. During the 5-year follow-up period, 8313 men (33.0%) underwent at least 1 prostate biopsy, and 5220 men (62.8%) who underwent prostate biopsy were diagnosed as having prostate cancer, of whom 4284 (82.1%) were treated for prostate cancer. Performance of prostate biopsy decreased with advancing age and worsening comorbidity (P < .001), whereas the percentage treated for biopsy-detected cancer exceeded 75% even among men 85 years or older, those with a Charlson-Deyo Comorbidity Index of 3 or higher, and those having low-risk cancer. Among men with biopsy-detected cancer, the risk of death from non-prostate cancer causes increased with advancing age and worsening comorbidity (P < .001). In total, 468 men (5.6%) had complications within 7 days after prostate biopsy. Complications of prostate cancer treatment included new urinary incontinence in 584 men (13.6%) and new erectile dysfunction 588 men (13.7%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Performance of prostate biopsy is uncommon in older men with abnormal screening PSA levels and decreases with advancing age and worsening comorbidity. However, once cancer is detected on biopsy, most men undergo immediate treatment regardless of advancing age, worsening comorbidity, or low-risk cancer. Understanding downstream outcomes in clinical practice should better inform individualized decisions among older men considering PSA screening.


Assuntos
Biomarcadores Tumorais/sangue , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/efeitos adversos , Antígeno Prostático Específico/sangue , Neoplasias da Próstata/diagnóstico , Neoplasias da Próstata/terapia , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Biópsia , Comorbidade , Tomada de Decisões , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/normas , Disfunção Erétil/epidemiologia , Disfunção Erétil/etiologia , Reações Falso-Positivas , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento , Registro Médico Coordenado , Medicare , Medicina de Precisão , Neoplasias da Próstata/imunologia , Neoplasias da Próstata/prevenção & controle , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Análise de Sobrevida , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , United States Department of Veterans Affairs , Procedimentos Desnecessários , Incontinência Urinária/epidemiologia , Incontinência Urinária/etiologia
16.
J Gen Intern Med ; 28(2): 261-8, 2013 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23054919

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Many older adults become dependent in one or more activities of daily living (ADLs: dressing, bathing, transferring, eating, toileting) when hospitalized, and their prognosis after discharge is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic index to estimate one-year probabilities of recovery, dependence or death in older hospitalized patients who are discharged with incident ADL dependence. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: 449 adults aged ≥ 70 years hospitalized for acute illness and discharged with incident ADL dependence. MAIN MEASURES: Potential predictors included demographics (age, sex, race, education, marital status), functional measures (ADL dependencies, instrumental activities of daily living [IADL] dependencies, walking ability), chronic conditions (e.g., congestive heart failure, dementia, cancer), reason for admission (e.g., neurologic, cardiovascular), and laboratory values (creatinine, albumin, hematocrit). Multinomial logistic regression was used to develop a prognostic index for estimating the probabilities of recovery, disability or death over 1 year. Discrimination of the index was assessed for each outcome based on the c statistic. KEY RESULTS: During the year following hospitalization, 36 % of patients recovered, 27 % remained dependent and 37 % died. Key predictors of recovery, dependence or death were age, sex, number of IADL dependencies 2 weeks prior to admission, number of ADL dependencies at discharge, dementia, cancer, number of other chronic conditions, reason for admission, and creatinine levels. The final prognostic index had good to excellent discrimination for all three outcomes based on the c statistic (recovery: 0.81, dependence: 0.72, death: 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: This index accurately estimated the probabilities of recovery, dependence or death in adults aged 70 years or older who were discharged with incident disability following hospitalization. This tool may be useful in clinical settings to guide care discussions and inform decision-making related to post-hospitalization care.


Assuntos
Doença Aguda/reabilitação , Avaliação Geriátrica/métodos , Hospitalização , Atividades Cotidianas , Doença Aguda/mortalidade , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Alta do Paciente , Readmissão do Paciente , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estados Unidos
17.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 60(12): 2254-62, 2012 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23176725

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between depressive symptoms after hospitalization and survival and functional outcomes. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study. SETTING: General medical service of two urban, teaching hospitals in Ohio. PARTICIPANTS: Hospitalized individuals aged 70 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Ten depressive symptoms, instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), and basic activities of daily living (ADLs) were measured at hospital discharge and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months later. Participant-specific changes in depressive symptoms (slopes) were determined using all data points. Four groups were also defined according to number of depressive symptoms (≤3 symptoms, low; 4-10 symptoms, high) at discharge and follow-up: low-low, low-high, high-low, and high-high. Mortality was measured 3, 6, and 12 months after hospital discharge. RESULTS: Participant-specific discharge depressive symptoms and change in depressive symptoms over time (slopes) were associated (P < .05) with functional and mortality outcomes. At 1 year, more participants in the low-low depressive symptom group (49%) were alive and independent in IADLs and ADLs than in the low-high group (37%, P = .02), and more participants in the high-low group (39%) were alive and independent in IADLs and ADLs than in the high-high group (19%, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Number of depressive symptoms and change in number of depressive symptoms during the year after discharge were associated with functional and mortality outcomes in hospitalized older adults. Fewer participants with persistently high or increasing depressive symptoms after hospitalization were alive and functionally independent 1 year later than participants with decreasing or persistently low symptoms, respectively.


Assuntos
Depressão/diagnóstico , Hospitalização , Mortalidade , APACHE , Atividades Cotidianas , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Atitude Frente a Saúde , Depressão/etiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Alta do Paciente , Recuperação de Função Fisiológica
18.
J Gen Intern Med ; 27(6): 653-60, 2012 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22180196

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Although guidelines recommend against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening in elderly men with limited life expectancy, screening is common. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify medical center characteristics associated with screening in this population. DESIGN/PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a prospective study of 622,262 screen-eligible men aged 70+ seen at 104 VA medical centers in 2003. MAIN MEASURES: Primary outcome was the percentage of men at each center who received PSA screening in 2003, based on VA data and Medicare claims. Men were stratified into life expectancy groups ranging from favorable (age 70-79 with Charlson score = 0) to limited (age 85+ with Charlson score ≥1 or age 70+ with Charlson score ≥4). Medical center characteristics were obtained from the 1999-2000 VA Survey of Primary Care Practices and publicly available VA data sources. KEY RESULTS: Among 123,223 (20%) men with limited life expectancy, 45% received PSA screening in 2003. Across 104 VAs, the PSA screening rate among men with limited life expectancy ranged from 25-79% (median 43%). Higher screening was associated with the following center characteristics: no academic affiliation (50% vs. 43%, adjusted RR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.25), a ratio of midlevel providers to physicians ≥3:4 (55% vs. 45%, adjusted RR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.32) and location in the South (49% vs. 39% in the West, adjusted RR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.12-1.40). Use of incentives and high scores on performance measures were not independently associated with screening. Within centers, the percentages of men screened with limited and favorable life expectancies were highly correlated (r = 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial practice variation exists for PSA screening in older men with limited life expectancy across VAs. The high center-specific correlation of screening among men with limited and favorable life expectancies indicates that PSA screening is poorly targeted according to life expectancy.


Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Expectativa de Vida , Antígeno Prostático Específico/sangue , Neoplasias da Próstata/diagnóstico , Saúde dos Veteranos/normas , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/normas , Fidelidade a Diretrizes/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Atenção Primária à Saúde/normas , Atenção Primária à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Prática Profissional/normas , Prática Profissional/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Saúde dos Veteranos/estatística & dados numéricos
19.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 59(7): 1206-16, 2011 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21649616

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Many older adults who are independent prior to hospitalization develop a new disability by hospital discharge. Early risk stratification for new-onset disability may improve care. Thus, this study's objective was to develop and validate a clinical index to determine, at admission, risk for new-onset disability among older, hospitalized adults at discharge. DESIGN: Data analyses derived from two prospective studies. SETTING: Two teaching hospitals in Ohio. PARTICIPANTS: Eight hundred eighty-five patients aged 70 years and older were discharged from a general medical service at a tertiary care hospital (mean age 78, 59% female) and 753 patients discharged from a separate community teaching hospital (mean age 79, 63% female). All participants reported being independent in five activities of daily living (ADLs: bathing, dressing, transferring, toileting, and eating) 2 weeks before admission. MEASUREMENTS: New-onset disability, defined as a new need for personal assistance in one or more ADLs at discharge in participants who were independent 2 weeks before hospital admission. RESULTS: Seven independent risk factors known on admission were identified and weighted using logistic regression: age (80-89, 1 point; ≥90, 2 points); dependence in three or more instrumental ADLs at baseline (2 points); impaired mobility at baseline (unable to run, 1 point; unable to climb stairs, 2 points); dependence in ADLs at admission (2-3 ADLs, 1 point; 4-5 ADLs, 3 points); acute stroke or metastatic cancer (2 points); severe cognitive impairment (1 point); and albumin less than 3.0 g/dL (2 points). New-onset disability occurred in 6%, 13%, 18%, 34%, 35%, 45%, 50%, and 87% of participants with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 or more points, respectively, in the derivation cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=0.784), and in 8%, 10%, 27%, 38%, 44%, 45%, 58%, and 83%, respectively, in the validation cohort (AUC=0.784). The risk score also predicted (P<.001) disability severity, nursing home placement, and long-term survival. CONCLUSION: This clinical index determines risk for new-onset disability in hospitalized older adults and may inform clinical care.


Assuntos
Atividades Cotidianas , Pacientes Internados/classificação , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Transtornos Cognitivos/complicações , Feminino , Hospitalização , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Limitação da Mobilidade , Neoplasias/complicações , Admissão do Paciente , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/complicações
20.
Arch Intern Med ; 171(15): 1344-51, 2011 Aug 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21555655

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In the United States, older adults have low rates of follow-up colonoscopy after a positive fecal occult blood test (FOBT) result. The long-term outcomes of these real world practices and their associated benefits and burdens are unknown. METHODS: Longitudinal cohort study of 212 patients 70 years or older with a positive FOBT result at 4 Veteran Affairs (VA) facilities in 2001 and followed up through 2008. We determined the frequency of downstream outcomes during the 7 years of follow-up, including procedures, colonoscopic findings, outcomes of treatment, complications, and mortality based on chart review and national VA and Medicare data. Net burden or benefit from screening and follow-up was determined according to each patient's life expectancy. Life expectancy was classified into 3 categories: best (age, 70-79 years and Charlson-Deyo comorbidity index [CCI], 0), average, and worst (age, 70-84 years and CCI, ≥4 or age, ≥85 years and CCI, ≥1). RESULTS: Fifty-six percent of patients received follow-up colonoscopy (118 of 212), which found 34 significant adenomas and 6 cancers. Ten percent experienced complications from colonoscopy or cancer treatment (12 of 118). Forty-six percent of those without follow-up colonoscopy died of other causes within 5 years of FOBT (43 of 94), while 3 died of colorectal cancer within 5 years. Eighty-seven percent of patients with worst life expectancy experienced a net burden from screening (26 of 30) as did 70% with average life expectancy (92 of 131) and 65% with best life expectancy (35 of 51) (P = .048 for trend). CONCLUSIONS: Over a 7-year period, older adults with best life expectancy were less likely to experience a net burden from current screening and follow-up practices than are those with worst life expectancy. The net burden could be decreased by better targeting FOBT screening and follow-up to healthy older adults.


Assuntos
Adenoma/prevenção & controle , Colonoscopia/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias Colorretais/prevenção & controle , Continuidade da Assistência ao Paciente , Sangue Oculto , Avaliação de Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Expectativa de Vida , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Análise de Sobrevida , Estados Unidos , Veteranos/estatística & dados numéricos
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