Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 43
Filtrar
Mais filtros










Base de dados
Intervalo de ano de publicação
1.
Curr Biol ; 29(19): R1008-R1020, 2019 Oct 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31593660

RESUMO

If current trends continue, the tropical forests of the Anthropocene will be much smaller, simpler, steeper and emptier than they are today. They will be more diminished in size and heavily fragmented (especially in lowland wet forests), have reduced structural and species complexity, be increasingly restricted to steeper, less accessible areas, and be missing many heavily hunted species. These changes, in turn, will greatly reduce the quality and quantity of ecosystem services that tropical forests can provide. Driving these changes will be continued clearance for farming and monoculture forest plantations, unsustainable selective logging, overhunting, and, increasingly, climate change. Concerted action by local and indigenous communities, environmental groups, governments, and corporations can reverse these trends and, if successful, provide future generations with a tropical forest estate that includes a network of primary forest reserves robustly defended from threats, recovering logged and secondary forests, and resilient community forests managed for the needs of local people. Realizing this better future for tropical forests and people will require formalisation of land tenure for local and indigenous communities, better-enforced environmental laws, the widescale roll-out of payments for ecosystem service schemes, and sustainable intensification of under-yielding farmland, as well as global-scale societal changes, including reduced consumerism, meat consumption, fossil fuel reliance, and population growth. But the time to act is now, while the opportunity remains to protect a semblance of intact, hyperdiverse tropical forests.

2.
Curr Biol ; 29(19): R977-R982, 2019 Oct 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31593680

RESUMO

The last decade has transformed the field of artificial intelligence, with deep learning at the forefront of this development. With its ability to 'self-learn' discriminative patterns directly from data, deep learning is a promising computational approach for automating the classification of visual, spatial and acoustic information in the context of environmental conservation. Here, we first highlight the current and future applications of supervised deep learning in environmental conservation. Next, we describe a number of technical and implementation-related challenges that can potentially impede the real-world adoption of this technology in conservation programmes. Lastly, to mitigate these pitfalls, we discuss priorities for guiding future research and hope that these recommendations will help make this technology more accessible to environmental scientists and conservation practitioners.

3.
Sci Rep ; 8(1): 15672, 2018 10 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30353034

RESUMO

The integration of Bayesian analysis into existing great ape survey methods could be used to generate precise and reliable population estimates of Bornean orang-utans. We used the Marked Nest Count (MNC) method to count new orang-utan nests at seven previously undocumented study sites in Sarawak, Malaysia. Our survey teams marked new nests on the first survey and revisited the plots on two more occasions; after about 21 and 42 days respectively. We used the N-mixture models to integrate suitability, abundance and detection models which account for zero inflation and imperfect detection for the analysis. The result was a combined estimate of 355 orang-utans with the 95% highest density interval (HDI) of 135 to 602 individuals. We visually inspected the posterior distributions of our parameters and compared precisions between study sites. We subsequently assess the strength or reliability of the generated estimates using identifiability tests. Only three out of the seven estimates had <35% overlap to indicate strong reliability. We discussed the limitations and advantages of our study design, and made recommendations to improve the sampling scheme. Over the course of this research, two of the study sites were gazetted as extensions to the Lanjak-Entimau Wildlife Sanctuary for orang-utan conservation.


Assuntos
Pongo pygmaeus , Animais , Animais Selvagens/fisiologia , Teorema de Bayes , Ecossistema , Malásia , Pongo pygmaeus/fisiologia , Densidade Demográfica
4.
R Soc Open Sci ; 5(9): 181168, 2018 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30839691

RESUMO

The relationship between ß-diversity and latitude still remains to be a core question in ecology because of the lack of consensus between studies. One hypothesis for the lack of consensus between studies is that spatial scale changes the relationship between latitude and ß-diversity. Here, we test this hypothesis using tree data from 15 large-scale forest plots (greater than or equal to 15 ha, diameter at breast height ≥ 1 cm) across a latitudinal gradient (3-30o) in the Asia-Pacific region. We found that the observed ß-diversity decreased with increasing latitude when sampling local tree communities at small spatial scale (grain size ≤0.1 ha), but the observed ß-diversity did not change with latitude when sampling at large spatial scales (greater than or equal to 0.25 ha). Differences in latitudinal ß-diversity gradients across spatial scales were caused by pooled species richness (γ-diversity), which influenced observed ß-diversity values at small spatial scales, but not at large spatial scales. Therefore, spatial scale changes the relationship between ß-diversity, γ-diversity and latitude, and improving sample representativeness avoids the γ-dependence of ß-diversity.

5.
Biol Lett ; 13(5)2017 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28539462

RESUMO

Large tracts of tropical rainforests are being converted into intensive agricultural lands. Such anthropogenic disturbances are known to reduce species turnover across horizontal distances. But it is not known if they can also reduce species turnover across vertical distances (elevation), which have steeper climatic differences. We measured turnover in birds across horizontal and vertical sampling transects in three land-use types of Sri Lanka: protected forest, reserve buffer and intensive-agriculture, from 90 to 2100 m a.s.l. Bird turnover rates across horizontal distances were similar across all habitats, and much less than vertical turnover rates. Vertical turnover rates were not similar across habitats. Forest had higher turnover rates than the other two habitats for all bird species. Buffer and intensive-agriculture had similar turnover rates, even though buffer habitats were situated at the forest edge. Therefore, our results demonstrate the crucial importance of conserving primary forest across the full elevational range available.


Assuntos
Aves , Agricultura , Animais , Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Florestas , Árvores , Clima Tropical
6.
J Plant Res ; 130(5): 829-844, 2017 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28444520

RESUMO

Despite decades of research, ecologists continue to debate how spatial patterns of species richness arise across elevational gradients on the Earth. The equivocal results of these studies could emanate from variations in study design, sampling effort and data analysis. In this study, we demonstrate that the richness patterns of 2,781 (2,197 non-endemic and 584 endemic) angiosperm species along an elevational gradient of 300-5,300 m in the Eastern Himalaya are hump-shaped, spatial scale of extent (the proportion of elevational gradient studied) dependent and growth form specific. Endemics peaked at higher elevations than non-endemics across all growth forms (trees, shrubs, climbers, and herbs). Richness patterns were influenced by the proportional representation of the largest physiognomic group (herbs). We show that with increasing spatial scale of extent, the richness patterns change from a monotonic to a hump-shaped pattern and richness maxima shift toward higher elevations across all growth forms. Our investigations revealed that the combination of ambient energy (air temperature, solar radiation, and potential evapo-transpiration) and water availability (soil water content and precipitation) were the main drivers of elevational plant species richness patterns in the Himalaya. This study highlights the importance of factoring in endemism, growth forms, and spatial scale when investigating elevational gradients of plant species distributions and advances our understanding of how macroecological patterns arise.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Fenômenos Fisiológicos Vegetais , Plantas , Altitude , Ecossistema , Geografia , Índia , Desenvolvimento Vegetal , Dispersão Vegetal , Temperatura Ambiente
7.
Trends Ecol Evol ; 32(6): 438-451, 2017 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28359572

RESUMO

Forest canopies are dynamic interfaces between organisms and atmosphere, providing buffered microclimates and complex microhabitats. Canopies form vertically stratified ecosystems interconnected with other strata. Some forest biodiversity patterns and food webs have been documented and measurements of ecophysiology and biogeochemical cycling have allowed analyses of large-scale transfer of CO2, water, and trace gases between forests and the atmosphere. However, many knowledge gaps remain. With global research networks and databases, and new technologies and infrastructure, we envisage rapid advances in our understanding of the mechanisms that drive the spatial and temporal dynamics of forests and their canopies. Such understanding is vital for the successful management and conservation of global forests and the ecosystem services they provide to the world.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Florestas , Atmosfera , Ecossistema , Árvores
8.
PLoS One ; 11(6): e0156481, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27276218

RESUMO

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to avoid forest conversion to alternative land-uses through financial incentives. Oil-palm has high opportunity costs, which according to current literature questions the financial competitiveness of REDD+ in tropical lowlands. To understand this more, we undertook regional fine-scale and coarse-scale analyses (through carbon mapping and economic modelling) to assess the financial viability of REDD+ in safeguarding unprotected forest (30,173 ha) in the Lower Kinabatangan floodplain in Malaysian Borneo. Results estimate 4.7 million metric tons of carbon (MgC) in unprotected forest, with 64% allocated for oil-palm cultivations. Through fine-scale mapping and carbon accounting, we demonstrated that REDD+ can outcompete oil-palm in regions with low suitability, with low carbon prices and low carbon stock. In areas with medium oil-palm suitability, REDD+ could outcompete oil palm in areas with: very high carbon and lower carbon price; medium carbon price and average carbon stock; or, low carbon stock and high carbon price. Areas with high oil palm suitability, REDD+ could only outcompete with higher carbon price and higher carbon stock. In the coarse-scale model, oil-palm outcompeted REDD+ in all cases. For the fine-scale models at the landscape level, low carbon offset prices (US $3 MgCO2e) would enable REDD+ to outcompete oil-palm in 55% of the unprotected forests requiring US $27 million to secure these areas for 25 years. Higher carbon offset price (US $30 MgCO2e) would increase the competitiveness of REDD+ within the landscape but would still only capture between 69%-74% of the unprotected forest, requiring US $380-416 million in carbon financing. REDD+ has been identified as a strategy to mitigate climate change by many countries (including Malaysia). Although REDD+ in certain scenarios cannot outcompete oil palm, this research contributes to the global REDD+ debate by: highlighting REDD+ competitiveness in tropical floodplain landscapes; and, providing a robust approach for identifying and targeting limited REDD+ funds.


Assuntos
Arecaceae/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/economia , Produção Agrícola/economia , Florestas , Bornéu
9.
Curr Biol ; 26(10): R404-5, 2016 05 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27218843

RESUMO

The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), colloquially referred to as 'drones', for biological field research is increasing [1-3]. Small, civilian UAVs are providing a viable, economical tool for ecology researchers and environmental managers. UAVs are particularly useful for wildlife observation and monitoring as they can produce systematic data of high spatial and temporal resolution [4]. However, this new technology could also have undesirable and unforeseen impacts on wildlife, the risks of which we currently have little understanding [5-7]. There is a need for a code of best practice in the use of UAVs to mitigate or alleviate these risks, which we begin to develop here.


Assuntos
Aeronaves , Animais Selvagens , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento Remoto/instrumentação , Animais
10.
Sci Rep ; 6: 23954, 2016 Apr 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27040604

RESUMO

Forests managed for timber have an important role to play in conserving global biodiversity. We evaluated the most common timber production systems worldwide in terms of their impact on local species richness by conducting a categorical meta-analysis. We reviewed 287 published studies containing 1008 comparisons of species richness in managed and unmanaged forests and derived management, taxon, and continent specific effect sizes. We show that in terms of local species richness loss, forest management types can be ranked, from best to worse, as follows: selection and retention systems, reduced impact logging, conventional selective logging, clear-cutting, agroforestry, timber plantations, fuelwood plantations. Next, we calculated the economic profitability in terms of the net present value of timber harvesting from 10 hypothetical wood-producing Forest Management Units (FMU) from around the globe. The ranking of management types is altered when the species loss per unit profit generated from the FMU is considered. This is due to differences in yield, timber species prices, rotation cycle length and production costs. We thus conclude that it would be erroneous to dismiss or prioritize timber production regimes, based solely on their ranking of alpha diversity impacts.


Assuntos
Agricultura Florestal/economia , Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Análise Custo-Benefício , Florestas , Densidade Demográfica
11.
Am J Primatol ; 77(10): 1122-34, 2015 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26179423

RESUMO

Monitoring of animal populations is essential for conservation management. Various techniques are available to assess spatiotemporal patterns of species distribution and abundance. Nest surveys are often used for monitoring great apes. Quickly developing technologies, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can be used to complement these ground-based surveys, especially for covering large areas rapidly. Aerial surveys have been used successfully to detect the nests of orang-utans. It is unknown if such an approach is practical for African apes, which usually build their nests at lower heights, where they might be obscured by forest canopy. In this 2-month study, UAV-derived aerial imagery was used for two distinct purposes: testing the detectability of chimpanzee nests and identifying fruiting trees used by chimpanzees in Loango National Park (Gabon). Chimpanzee nest data were collected through two approaches: we located nests on the ground and then tried to detect them in UAV photos and vice versa. Ground surveys were conducted using line transects, reconnaissance trails, and opportunistic sampling during which we detected 116 individual nests in 28 nest groups. In complementary UAV images we detected 48% of the individual nests (68% of nest groups) in open coastal forests and 8% of individual nests (33% of nest groups) in closed canopy inland forests. The key factor for nest detectability in UAV imagery was canopy openness. Data on fruiting trees were collected from five line transects. In 122 UAV images 14 species of trees (N = 433) were identified, alongside 37 tree species (N = 205) in complementary ground surveys. Relative abundance of common tree species correlated between ground and UAV surveys. We conclude that UAVs have great potential as a rapid assessment tool for detecting chimpanzee presence in forest with open canopy and assessing fruit tree availability. UAVs may have limited applicability for nest detection in closed canopy forest.


Assuntos
Frutas , Comportamento de Nidação , Pan troglodytes/fisiologia , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento Remoto/métodos , Animais , Ecossistema , Florestas , Gabão , Árvores
12.
Proc Biol Sci ; 282(1808): 20150164, 2015 Jun 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25994673

RESUMO

Selective logging is one of the most common forms of forest use in the tropics. Although the effects of selective logging on biodiversity have been widely studied, there is little agreement on the relationship between life-history traits and tolerance to logging. In this study, we assessed how species traits and logging practices combine to determine species responses to selective logging, based on over 4000 observations of the responses of nearly 1000 bird species to selective logging across the tropics. Our analysis shows that species traits, such as feeding group and body mass, and logging practices, such as time since logging and logging intensity, interact to influence a species' response to logging. Frugivores and insectivores were most adversely affected by logging and declined further with increasing logging intensity. Nectarivores and granivores responded positively to selective logging for the first two decades, after which their abundances decrease below pre-logging levels. Larger species of omnivores and granivores responded more positively to selective logging than smaller species from either feeding group, whereas this effect of body size was reversed for carnivores, herbivores, frugivores and insectivores. Most importantly, species most negatively impacted by selective logging had not recovered approximately 40 years after logging cessation. We conclude that selective timber harvest has the potential to cause large and long-lasting changes in avian biodiversity. However, our results suggest that the impacts can be mitigated to a certain extent through specific forest management strategies such as lengthening the rotation cycle and implementing reduced impact logging.


Assuntos
Aves/fisiologia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Agricultura Florestal/métodos , Animais , Biodiversidade , Cadeia Alimentar , Florestas , Modelos Teóricos , Clima Tropical
14.
Curr Biol ; 24(16): 1893-8, 2014 Aug 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25088557

RESUMO

Primary tropical forests are lost at an alarming rate, and much of the remaining forest is being degraded by selective logging. Yet, the impacts of logging on biodiversity remain poorly understood, in part due to the seemingly conflicting findings of case studies: about as many studies have reported increases in biodiversity after selective logging as have reported decreases. Consequently, meta-analytical studies that treat selective logging as a uniform land use tend to conclude that logging has negligible effects on biodiversity. However, selectively logged forests might not all be the same. Through a pantropical meta-analysis and using an information-theoretic approach, we compared and tested alternative hypotheses for key predictors of the richness of tropical forest fauna in logged forest. We found that the species richness of invertebrates, amphibians, and mammals decreases as logging intensity increases and that this effect varies with taxonomic group and continental location. In particular, mammals and amphibians would suffer a halving of species richness at logging intensities of 38 m(3) ha(-1) and 63 m(3) ha(-1), respectively. Birds exhibit an opposing trend as their total species richness increases with logging intensity. An analysis of forest bird species, however, suggests that this pattern is largely due to an influx of habitat generalists into heavily logged areas while forest specialist species decline. Our study provides a quantitative analysis of the nuanced responses of species along a gradient of logging intensity, which could help inform evidence-based sustainable logging practices from the perspective of biodiversity conservation.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Agricultura Florestal , Florestas , Animais , Invertebrados , Clima Tropical , Vertebrados
15.
Curr Biol ; 24(14): 1659-1663, 2014 Jul 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25017207

RESUMO

Expansion of oil palm plantations has led to extensive wildlife habitat conversion in Southeast Asia [1]. This expansion is driven by a global demand for palm oil for products ranging from foods to detergents [2], and more recently for biofuels [3]. The negative impacts of oil palm development on biodiversity [1, 4, 5], and on orangutans (Pongo spp.) in particular, have been well documented [6, 7] and publicized [8, 9]. Although the oil palm is of African origin, Africa's production historically lags behind that of Southeast Asia. Recently, significant investments have been made that will likely drive the expansion of Africa's oil palm industry [10]. There is concern that this will lead to biodiversity losses similar to those in Southeast Asia. Here, we analyze the potential impact of oil palm development on Africa's great apes. Current great ape distribution in Africa substantially overlaps with current oil palm concessions (by 58.7%) and areas suitable for oil palm production (by 42.3%). More importantly, 39.9% of the distribution of great ape species on unprotected lands overlaps with suitable oil palm areas. There is an urgent need to develop guidelines for the expansion of oil palm in Africa to minimize the negative effects on apes and other wildlife. There is also a need for research to support land use decisions to reconcile economic development, great ape conservation, and avoiding carbon emissions.


Assuntos
Agricultura/métodos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Meio Ambiente , África , Animais , Biodiversidade , Biocombustíveis , Ecossistema , Gorilla gorilla , Óleo de Palmeira , Pan paniscus , Pan troglodytes , Óleos Vegetais , Pongo , Árvores
16.
PeerJ ; 1: e188, 2013.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24255807

RESUMO

The human population is expected to reach ∼9 billion by 2050. The ensuing demands for water, food and energy would intensify land-use conflicts and exacerbate environmental impacts. Therefore we urgently need to reconcile our growing consumptive needs with environmental protection. Here, we explore the potential of a land-use optimisation strategy to increase global agricultural production on two major groups of crops: cereals and oilseeds. We implemented a spatially-explicit computer simulation model across 173 countries based on the following algorithm: on any cropland, always produce the most productive crop given all other crops currently being produced locally and the site-specific biophysical, economic and technological constraints to production. Globally, this strategy resulted in net increases in annual production of cereal and oilseed crops from 1.9 billion to 2.9 billion tons (46%), and from 427 million to 481 million tons (13%), respectively, without any change in total land area harvested for cereals or oilseeds. This thought experiment demonstrates that, in theory, more optimal use of existing farmlands could help meet future crop demands. In practice there might be cultural, social and institutional barriers that limit the full realisation of this theoretical potential. Nevertheless, these constraints have to be weighed against the consequences of not producing enough food, particularly in regions already facing food shortages.

17.
Trends Ecol Evol ; 28(9): 531-40, 2013 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23764258

RESUMO

In 2004, Navjot Sodhi and colleagues warned that logging and agricultural conversion of Southeast Asia's forests were leading to a biodiversity disaster. We evaluate this prediction against subsequent research and conclude that most of the fauna of the region can persist in logged forests. Conversely, conversion of primary or logged forests to plantation crops, such as oil palm, causes tremendous biodiversity loss. This loss is exacerbated by increased fire frequency. Therefore, we conclude that preventing agricultural conversion of logged forests is essential to conserving the biodiversity of this region. Our analysis also suggests that, because Southeast Asian forests are tightly tied to global commodity markets, conservation payments commensurate with combined returns from logging and subsequent agricultural production may be required to secure long-term forest protection.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Agricultura Florestal , Ásia Sudeste , Ecossistema
18.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 110(19): 7601-6, 2013 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23589860

RESUMO

The supposition that agricultural intensification results in land sparing for conservation has become central to policy formulations across the tropics. However, underlying assumptions remain uncertain and have been little explored in the context of conservation incentive schemes such as policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, conservation, sustainable management, and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+). Incipient REDD+ forest carbon policies in a number of countries propose agricultural intensification measures to replace extensive "slash-and-burn" farming systems. These may result in conservation in some contexts, but will also increase future agricultural land rents as productivity increases, creating new incentives for agricultural expansion and deforestation. While robust governance can help to ensure land sparing, we propose that conservation incentives will also have to increase over time, tracking future agricultural land rents, which might lead to runaway conservation costs. We present a conceptual framework that depicts these relationships, supported by an illustrative model of the intensification of key crops in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a leading REDD+ country. A von Thünen land rent model is combined with geographic information systems mapping to demonstrate how agricultural intensification could influence future conservation costs. Once postintensification agricultural land rents are considered, the cost of reducing forest sector emissions could significantly exceed current and projected carbon credit prices. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering escalating conservation costs from agricultural intensification when designing conservation initiatives.


Assuntos
Agricultura/economia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/economia , Agricultura/métodos , Biodiversidade , Carbono/química , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Produtos Agrícolas , República Democrática do Congo , Ecossistema , Modelos Estatísticos , Árvores , Zea mays
19.
Ann N Y Acad Sci ; 1249: 137-50, 2012 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22168380

RESUMO

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) provides financial compensation to land owners who avoid converting standing forests to other land uses. In this paper, we review the main opportunities and challenges for REDD+ implementation, including expectations for REDD+ to deliver on multiple environmental and societal cobenefits. We also highlight a recent case study, the Norway-Indonesia REDD+ agreement and discuss how it might be a harbinger of outcomes in other forest-rich nations seeking REDD+ funds. Looking forward, we critically examine the fundamental assumptions of REDD+ as a solution for the atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gas emissions and tropical deforestation. We conclude that REDD+ is currently the most promising mechanism driving the conservation of tropical forests. Yet, to emerge as a true game changer, REDD+ must still demonstrate that it can access low transaction cost and high-volume carbon markets or funds, while also providing or complimenting a suite of nonmonetary incentives to encourage a developing nation's transition from forest losing to forest gaining, and align with, not undermine, a globally cohesive attempt to mitigate anthropogenic climate change.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Biodiversidade , Dióxido de Carbono , Mudança Climática/economia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/economia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/tendências , Efeito Estufa/economia , Efeito Estufa/prevenção & controle , Indonésia , Noruega , Política , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Árvores
20.
Glob Chang Biol ; 18(10): 3087-3099, 2012 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28741819

RESUMO

Policy makers across the tropics propose that carbon finance could provide incentives for forest frontier communities to transition away from swidden agriculture (slash-and-burn or shifting cultivation) to other systems that potentially reduce emissions and/or increase carbon sequestration. However, there is little certainty regarding the carbon outcomes of many key land-use transitions at the center of current policy debates. Our meta-analysis of over 250 studies reporting above- and below-ground carbon estimates for different land-use types indicates great uncertainty in the net total ecosystem carbon changes that can be expected from many transitions, including the replacement of various types of swidden agriculture with oil palm, rubber, or some other types of agroforestry systems. These transitions are underway throughout Southeast Asia, and are at the heart of REDD+ debates. Exceptions of unambiguous carbon outcomes are the abandonment of any type of agriculture to allow forest regeneration (a certain positive carbon outcome) and expansion of agriculture into mature forest (a certain negative carbon outcome). With respect to swiddening, our meta-analysis supports a reassessment of policies that encourage land-cover conversion away from these [especially long-fallow] systems to other more cash-crop-oriented systems producing ambiguous carbon stock changes - including oil palm and rubber. In some instances, lengthening fallow periods of an existing swidden system may produce substantial carbon benefits, as would conversion from intensely cultivated lands to high-biomass plantations and some other types of agroforestry. More field studies are needed to provide better data of above- and below-ground carbon stocks before informed recommendations or policy decisions can be made regarding which land-use regimes optimize or increase carbon sequestration. As some transitions may negatively impact other ecosystem services, food security, and local livelihoods, the entire carbon and noncarbon benefit stream should also be taken into account before prescribing transitions with ambiguous carbon benefits.

SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA