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1.
NPJ Breast Cancer ; 6(1): 60, 2020 Nov 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33298933

RESUMO

We aimed to assess contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk in patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) compared with invasive breast cancer (BC). Women diagnosed with DCIS (N = 28,003) or stage I-III BC (N = 275,836) between 1989 and 2017 were identified from the nationwide Netherlands Cancer Registry. Cumulative incidences were estimated, accounting for competing risks, and hazard ratios (HRs) for metachronous invasive CBC. To evaluate effects of adjuvant systemic therapy and screening, separate analyses were performed for stage I BC without adjuvant systemic therapy and by mode of first BC detection. Multivariable models including clinico-pathological and treatment data were created to assess CBC risk prediction performance in DCIS patients. The 10-year cumulative incidence of invasive CBC was 4.8% for DCIS patients (CBC = 1334). Invasive CBC risk was higher in DCIS patients compared with invasive BC overall (HR = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-1.17), and lower compared with stage I BC without adjuvant systemic therapy (HR = 0.87; 95% CI = 0.82-0.92). In patients diagnosed ≥2011, the HR for invasive CBC was 1.38 (95% CI = 1.35-1.68) after screen-detected DCIS compared with screen-detected invasive BC, and was 2.14 (95% CI = 1.46-3.13) when not screen-detected. The C-index was 0.52 (95% CI = 0.50-0.54) for invasive CBC prediction in DCIS patients. In conclusion, CBC risks are low overall. DCIS patients had a slightly higher risk of invasive CBC compared with invasive BC, likely explained by the risk-reducing effect of (neo)adjuvant systemic therapy among BC patients. For support of clinical decision making more information is needed to differentiate CBC risks among DCIS patients.

2.
Int J Cancer ; 2020 Nov 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33252836

RESUMO

This study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of trends in incidence, survival, mortality and treatment of first primary invasive breast cancer (BC), according to age, stage and receptor subtype in the Netherlands between 1989-2017. Data from all women diagnosed with first primary stage I-IV breast cancer (N=320,249) were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. BC mortality and general population data were retrieved from Statistics Netherlands. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated with annual and average annual percentage change statistics (APC and AAPC). The relative survival (RS) was used as estimator for disease-specific survival. The BC incidence for all BC patients combined increased until 2013 from 126 to 158 per 100,000 person-years, after which a declining trend was observed. Surgery became less extensive, but (neo)adjuvant systemic treatments and their combinations were given more frequently. The RS improved for all age groups and for most stages and receptor subtypes, but remained stable for all subtypes since 2012-2013 and since 2000-2009 for stage IV BC at 15-years of follow-up. Overall, the five- and ten-year RS increased from 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]:76.1, 77.4) and 55.9% (95%CI:54.7, 57.1) in 1989-1999 to 91.0% (95%CI:90.5, 91.5) and 82.9% (95%CI:82.2, 83.5), respectively, in 2010-2016. BC mortality improved regardless of age and overall decreased from 57 to 35 per 100,000 person-years between 1989-2017. In conclusion, the BC incidence in the Netherlands has steadily increased since 1989, but the latest trends show promising declines. Survival improved markedly for most patients and the mortality decreased regardless of age. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

3.
Am J Hum Genet ; 107(5): 837-848, 2020 11 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33022221

RESUMO

Previous research has shown that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can be used to stratify women according to their risk of developing primary invasive breast cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the association between a recently validated PRS of 313 germline variants (PRS313) and contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk. We included 56,068 women of European ancestry diagnosed with first invasive breast cancer from 1990 onward with follow-up from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Metachronous CBC risk (N = 1,027) according to the distribution of PRS313 was quantified using Cox regression analyses. We assessed PRS313 interaction with age at first diagnosis, family history, morphology, ER status, PR status, and HER2 status, and (neo)adjuvant therapy. In studies of Asian women, with limited follow-up, CBC risk associated with PRS313 was assessed using logistic regression for 340 women with CBC compared with 12,133 women with unilateral breast cancer. Higher PRS313 was associated with increased CBC risk: hazard ratio per standard deviation (SD) = 1.25 (95%CI = 1.18-1.33) for Europeans, and an OR per SD = 1.15 (95%CI = 1.02-1.29) for Asians. The absolute lifetime risks of CBC, accounting for death as competing risk, were 12.4% for European women at the 10th percentile and 20.5% at the 90th percentile of PRS313. We found no evidence of confounding by or interaction with individual characteristics, characteristics of the primary tumor, or treatment. The C-index for the PRS313 alone was 0.563 (95%CI = 0.547-0.586). In conclusion, PRS313 is an independent factor associated with CBC risk and can be incorporated into CBC risk prediction models to help improve stratification and optimize surveillance and treatment strategies.

4.
Breast Cancer Res Treat ; 181(2): 423-434, 2020 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32279280

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Three tools are currently available to predict the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to compare the performance of the Manchester formula, CBCrisk, and PredictCBC in patients with invasive breast cancer (BC). METHODS: We analyzed data of 132,756 patients (4682 CBC) from 20 international studies with a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Prediction performance included discrimination, quantified as a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary BC, and calibration, quantified as the expected-observed (E/O) ratio at 5 and 10 years and the calibration slope. RESULTS: The AUC at 10 years was: 0.58 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.57-0.59) for CBCrisk; 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for the Manchester formula; 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.66) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.56-0.62) for PredictCBC-1A (for settings where BRCA1/2 mutation status is available) and PredictCBC-1B (for the general population), respectively. The E/O at 10 years: 0.82 (95% CI 0.51-1.32) for CBCrisk; 1.53 (95% CI 0.63-3.73) for the Manchester formula; 1.28 (95% CI 0.63-2.58) for PredictCBC-1A and 1.35 (95% CI 0.65-2.77) for PredictCBC-1B. The calibration slope was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.50) for CBCrisk; 0.90 (95% CI 0.79-1.02) for PredictCBC-1A; 0.81 (95% CI 0.63-0.99) for PredictCBC-1B, and 0.39 (95% CI 0.34-0.43) for the Manchester formula. CONCLUSIONS: Current CBC risk prediction tools provide only moderate discrimination and the Manchester formula was poorly calibrated. Better predictors and re-calibration are needed to improve CBC prediction and to identify low- and high-CBC risk patients for clinical decision-making.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Tomada de Decisão Clínica , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/patologia , Medição de Risco/métodos , Adulto , Neoplasias da Mama/metabolismo , Neoplasias da Mama/cirurgia , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Agências Internacionais , Mastectomia , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/metabolismo , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/cirurgia , Prognóstico , Receptor ErbB-2/metabolismo , Receptores Estrogênicos/metabolismo , Fatores de Risco
5.
Breast Cancer Res ; 21(1): 144, 2019 12 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31847907

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer survivors are at risk for contralateral breast cancer (CBC), with the consequent burden of further treatment and potentially less favorable prognosis. We aimed to develop and validate a CBC risk prediction model and evaluate its applicability for clinical decision-making. METHODS: We included data of 132,756 invasive non-metastatic breast cancer patients from 20 studies with 4682 CBC events and a median follow-up of 8.8 years. We developed a multivariable Fine and Gray prediction model (PredictCBC-1A) including patient, primary tumor, and treatment characteristics and BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, accounting for the competing risks of death and distant metastasis. We also developed a model without BRCA1/2 mutation status (PredictCBC-1B) since this information was available for only 6% of patients and is routinely unavailable in the general breast cancer population. Prediction performance was evaluated using calibration and discrimination, calculated by a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary breast cancer, and an internal-external cross-validation procedure. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of the model to quantify clinical utility. RESULTS: In the multivariable model, BRCA1/2 germline mutation status, family history, and systemic adjuvant treatment showed the strongest associations with CBC risk. The AUC of PredictCBC-1A was 0.63 (95% prediction interval (PI) at 5 years, 0.52-0.74; at 10 years, 0.53-0.72). Calibration-in-the-large was -0.13 (95% PI: -1.62-1.37), and the calibration slope was 0.90 (95% PI: 0.73-1.08). The AUC of Predict-1B at 10 years was 0.59 (95% PI: 0.52-0.66); calibration was slightly lower. Decision curve analysis for preventive contralateral mastectomy showed potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-1A between thresholds of 4-10% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a reasonably calibrated model to predict the risk of CBC in women of European-descent; however, prediction accuracy was moderate. Our model shows potential for improved risk counseling, but decision-making regarding contralateral preventive mastectomy, especially in the general breast cancer population where limited information of the mutation status in BRCA1/2 is available, remains challenging.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Neoplasias da Mama/etiologia , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/epidemiologia , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/etiologia , Área Sob a Curva , Proteína BRCA1/genética , Proteína BRCA2/genética , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Neoplasias da Mama/terapia , Tomada de Decisão Clínica , Gerenciamento Clínico , Suscetibilidade a Doenças , Feminino , Mutação em Linhagem Germinativa , Humanos , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/patologia , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/prevenção & controle , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Prognóstico , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco
6.
J Natl Cancer Inst ; 111(7): 709-718, 2019 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30698719

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of breast cancer (BC) survivors are at risk of developing contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to investigate the influence of various adjuvant systemic regimens on, subtype-specific, risk of CBC. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included female patients diagnosed with first invasive BC between 2003 and 2010; follow-up was complete until 2016. Clinico-pathological data were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and additional data on receptor status through linkage with PALGA: the Dutch Pathology Registry. Cumulative incidences (death and distant metastases as competing risk) and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated for all invasive metachronous CBC and CBC subtypes. RESULTS: Of 83 144 BC patients, 2816 developed a CBC; the 10-year cumulative incidence was 3.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.7% to 4.0%). Overall, adjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.80), endocrine therapy (HR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.41 to 0.52), and trastuzumab with chemotherapy (HR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.73) were strongly associated with a reduced CBC risk. Specifically, taxane-containing chemotherapy (HR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.62) and aromatase inhibitors (HR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.23 to 0.44) were associated with a large CBC risk reduction. More detailed analyses showed that endocrine therapy statistically significantly decreased the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive CBC (HR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.47) but not ER-negative CBC (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.93) compared with no endocrine therapy. Patients receiving chemotherapy for ER-negative first BC had a higher risk of ER-negative CBC from 5 years of follow-up (HR = 2.84, 95% CI = 1.62 to 4.99) compared with patients not receiving chemotherapy for ER-negative first BC. CONCLUSION: Endocrine therapy, chemotherapy, as well as trastuzumab with chemotherapy reduce CBC risk. However, each adjuvant therapy regimen had a different impact on the CBC subtype distribution. Taxane-containing chemotherapy and aromatase inhibitors were associated with the largest CBC risk reduction.


Assuntos
Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapêutico , Inibidores da Aromatase/uso terapêutico , Neoplasias da Mama/tratamento farmacológico , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/tratamento farmacológico , Adulto , Idoso , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/efeitos adversos , Inibidores da Aromatase/efeitos adversos , Neoplasias da Mama/genética , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Hidrocarbonetos Aromáticos com Pontes/uso terapêutico , Quimioterapia Adjuvante/efeitos adversos , Terapia Combinada , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/genética , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/patologia , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Receptores Estrogênicos/genética , Fatores de Risco , Taxoides/uso terapêutico , Trastuzumab/uso terapêutico
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