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1.
medRxiv ; 2021 Nov 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34751273

RESUMO

The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma's spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma's detection, and were largely transient after Gamma's detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil's COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Note: The following manuscript has appeared as 'Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals' at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 . One sentence summary: COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity.

2.
Viruses ; 13(9)2021 Sep 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34578423

RESUMO

Recent years have witnessed the discovery of several new viruses belonging to the family Arteriviridae, expanding the known diversity and host range of this group of complex RNA viruses. Although the pathological relevance of these new viruses is not always clear, several well-studied members of the family Arteriviridae are known to be important animal pathogens. Here, we report the complete genome sequences of four new arterivirus variants, belonging to two putative novel species. These new arteriviruses were discovered in African rodents and were given the names Lopma virus and Praja virus. Their genomes follow the characteristic genome organization of all known arteriviruses, even though they are only distantly related to currently known rodent-borne arteriviruses. Phylogenetic analysis shows that Lopma virus clusters in the subfamily Variarterivirinae, while Praja virus clusters near members of the subfamily Heroarterivirinae: the yet undescribed forest pouched giant rat arterivirus and hedgehog arterivirus 1. A co-divergence analysis of rodent-borne arteriviruses confirms that they share similar phylogenetic patterns with their hosts, with only very few cases of host shifting events throughout their evolutionary history. Overall, the genomes described here and their unique clustering with other arteriviruses further illustrate the existence of multiple rodent-borne arterivirus lineages, expanding our knowledge of the evolutionary origin of these viruses.

3.
Cell ; 184(20): 5189-5200.e7, 2021 09 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34537136

RESUMO

The independent emergence late in 2020 of the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 lineages of SARS-CoV-2 prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionary capacity of this virus to overcome public health interventions and rising population immunity. Here, by examining patterns of synonymous and non-synonymous mutations that have accumulated in SARS-CoV-2 genomes since the pandemic began, we find that the emergence of these three "501Y lineages" coincided with a major global shift in the selective forces acting on various SARS-CoV-2 genes. Following their emergence, the adaptive evolution of 501Y lineage viruses has involved repeated selectively favored convergent mutations at 35 genome sites, mutations we refer to as the 501Y meta-signature. The ongoing convergence of viruses in many other lineages on this meta-signature suggests that it includes multiple mutation combinations capable of promoting the persistence of diverse SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the face of mounting host immune recognition.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Evolução Molecular , Mutação , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Sequência de Aminoácidos/genética , COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/virologia , Códon/genética , Genes Virais , Deriva Genética , Adaptação ao Hospedeiro/genética , Humanos , Evasão da Resposta Imune , Filogenia , Saúde Pública
4.
PLoS Genet ; 17(9): e1009820, 2021 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34570761

RESUMO

Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strain ATCC14028s is commercially available from multiple national type culture collections, and has been widely used since 1960 for quality control of growth media and experiments on fitness ("laboratory evolution"). ATCC14028s has been implicated in multiple cross-contaminations in the laboratory, and has also caused multiple laboratory infections and one known attempt at bioterrorism. According to hierarchical clustering of 3002 core gene sequences, ATCC14028s belongs to HierCC cluster HC20_373 in which most internal branch lengths are only one to three SNPs long. Many natural Typhimurium isolates from humans, domesticated animals and the environment also belong to HC20_373, and their core genomes are almost indistinguishable from those of laboratory strains. These natural isolates have infected humans in Ireland and Taiwan for decades, and are common in the British Isles as well as the Americas. The isolation history of some of the natural isolates confirms the conclusion that they do not represent recent contamination by the laboratory strain, and 10% carry plasmids or bacteriophages which have been acquired in nature by HGT from unrelated bacteria. We propose that ATCC14028s has repeatedly escaped from the laboratory environment into nature via laboratory accidents or infections, but the escaped micro-lineages have only a limited life span. As a result, there is a genetic gap separating HC20_373 from its closest natural relatives due to a divergence between them in the late 19th century followed by repeated extinction events of escaped HC20_373.

5.
Rev Med Virol ; : e2284, 2021 Sep 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34543489

RESUMO

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major health problem. A better understanding of the geographical and temporal dynamics of RSV circulation will assist in tracking resistance against therapeutics currently under development. Since 2015, the field of RSV molecular epidemiology has evolved rapidly with around 20-30 published articles per year. The objective of this systematic review is to identify knowledge gaps in recent RSV genetic literature to guide global molecular epidemiology research. We included 78 studies published between 2015 and 2020 describing 12,998 RSV sequences of which 8,233 (63%) have been uploaded to GenBank. Seventeen (22%) studies were performed in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and seven (9%) studies sequenced whole-genomes. Although most reported polymorphisms for monoclonal antibodies in clinical development (nirsevimab, MK-1654) have not been tested for resistance in neutralisation essays, known resistance was detected at low levels for the nirsevimab and palivizumab binding site. High resistance was found for the suptavumab binding site. We present the first literature review of an enormous amount of RSV genetic data. The need for global monitoring of RSV molecular epidemiology becomes increasingly important in evaluating the effectiveness of monoclonal antibody candidates as they reach their final stages of clinical development. We have identified the following three knowledge gaps: whole-genome data to study global RSV evolution, data from LMICs and data from global surveillance programs.

6.
mBio ; 12(4): e0074521, 2021 08 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34253060

RESUMO

The ectodomain of matrix protein 2 (M2e) of influenza A viruses is a universal influenza A vaccine candidate. Here, we report potential evasion strategies of influenza A viruses under in vivo passive anti-M2e IgG immune selection pressure in severe combined immune-deficient (SCID) mice. A/Puerto Rico/8/34-infected SCID mice were treated with the M2e-specific mouse IgG monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) MAb 65 (IgG2a) or MAb 37 (IgG1), which recognize amino acids 5 to 15 in M2e, or with MAb 148 (IgG1), which binds to the invariant N terminus of M2e. Treatment of challenged SCID mice with any of these MAbs significantly prolonged survival compared to isotype control IgG treatment. Furthermore, M2e-specific IgG2a protected significantly better than IgG1, and even resulted in virus clearance in some of the SCID mice. Deep sequencing analysis of viral RNA isolated at different time points after treatment revealed that the sequence variation in M2e was limited to P10H/L and/or I11T in anti-M2e MAb-treated mice. Remarkably, in half of the samples isolated from moribund MAb 37-treated mice and in all MAb 148-treated mice, virus was isolated with a wild-type M2 sequence but with nonsynonymous mutations in the polymerases and/or the hemagglutinin genes. Some of these mutations were associated with delayed M2 and other viral gene expression and with increased resistance to anti-M2e MAb treatment of SCID mice. Treatment with M2e-specific MAbs thus selects for viruses with limited variation in M2e. Importantly, influenza A viruses may also undergo an alternative escape route by acquiring mutations that result in delayed wild-type M2 expression. IMPORTANCE Broadly protective influenza vaccine candidates may have a higher barrier to immune evasion compared to conventional influenza vaccines. We used Illumina MiSeq deep sequence analysis to study the mutational patterns in A/Puerto Rico/8/34 viruses that evolve in chronically infected SCID mice that were treated with different M2e-specific MAbs. We show that under these circumstances, viruses emerged in vivo with mutations in M2e that were limited to positions 10 and 11. Moreover, we discovered an alternative route for anti-M2e antibody immune escape, in which a virus is selected with wild-type M2e but with mutations in other gene segments that result in delayed M2 and other viral protein expression. Delayed expression of the viral antigen that is targeted by a protective antibody thus represents an influenza virus immune escape mechanism that does not involve epitope alterations.

7.
Virus Evol ; 7(1): veab036, 2021 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34221451

RESUMO

Hepatitis C virus (HCV; genus Hepacivirus) represents a major public health problem, infecting about three per cent of the human population. Because no animal reservoir carrying closely related hepaciviruses has been identified, the zoonotic origins of HCV still remain unresolved. Motivated by recent findings of divergent hepaciviruses in rodents and a plausible African origin of HCV genotypes, we have screened a large collection of small mammals samples from seven sub-Saharan African countries. Out of 4,303 samples screened, eighty were found positive for the presence of hepaciviruses in twenty-nine different host species. We, here, report fifty-six novel genomes that considerably increase the diversity of three divergent rodent hepacivirus lineages. Furthermore, we provide strong evidence for hepacivirus co-infections in rodents, which were exclusively found in four sampled species of brush-furred mice. We also detect evidence of recombination within specific host lineages. Our study expands the available hepacivirus genomic data and contributes insights into the relatively deep evolutionary history of these pathogens in rodents. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of rodents as a potential hepacivirus reservoir and as models for investigating HCV infection dynamics.

8.
Viruses ; 13(6)2021 06 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34207490

RESUMO

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) resulted in an extraordinary global public health crisis. In early 2020, Cyprus, among other European countries, was affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and adopted lockdown measures in March 2020 to limit the initial outbreak on the island. In this study, we performed a comprehensive retrospective molecular epidemiological analysis (genetic, phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses) of SARS-CoV-2 isolates in Cyprus from April 2020 to January 2021, covering the first ten months of the SARS-CoV-2 infection epidemic on the island. The primary aim of this study was to assess the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Cyprus. Whole SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences were generated from 596 clinical samples (nasopharyngeal swabs) obtained from community-based diagnostic testing centers and hospitalized patients. The phylogenetic analyses revealed a total of 34 different lineages in Cyprus, with B.1.258, B.1.1.29, B.1.177, B.1.2, B.1 and B.1.1.7 (designated a Variant of Concern 202012/01, VOC) being the most prevalent lineages on the island during the study period. Phylodynamic analysis showed a highly dynamic epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with three consecutive surges characterized by specific lineages (B.1.1.29 from April to June 2020; B.1.258 from September 2020 to January 2021; and B.1.1.7 from December 2020 to January 2021). Genetic analysis of whole SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences of the aforementioned lineages revealed the presence of mutations within the S protein (L18F, ΔH69/V70, S898F, ΔY144, S162G, A222V, N439K, N501Y, A570D, D614G, P681H, S982A and D1118H) that confer higher transmissibility and/or antibody escape (immune evasion) upon the virus. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that the majority of imports and exports were to and from the United Kingdom (UK), although many other regions/countries were identified (southeastern Asia, southern Europe, eastern Europe, Germany, Italy, Brazil, Chile, the USA, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Finland, Switzerland and Pakistan). Taken together, these findings demonstrate that the SARS-CoV-2 infection epidemic in Cyprus is being maintained by a continuous influx of lineages from many countries, resulting in the establishment of an ever-evolving and polyphyletic virus on the island.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Genoma Viral , Filogenia , SARS-CoV-2/genética , COVID-19/transmissão , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Chipre/epidemiologia , Evolução Molecular , Humanos , Mutação , Nasofaringe/virologia , Filogeografia , RNA Viral/genética , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2/classificação , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação
9.
J Comput Graph Stat ; 30(1): 11-24, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34168419

RESUMO

Big Bayes is the computationally intensive co-application of big data and large, expressive Bayesian models for the analysis of complex phenomena in scientific inference and statistical learning. Standing as an example, Bayesian multidimensional scaling (MDS) can help scientists learn viral trajectories through space-time, but its computational burden prevents its wider use. Crucial MDS model calculations scale quadratically in the number of observations. We partially mitigate this limitation through massive parallelization using multi-core central processing units, instruction-level vectorization and graphics processing units (GPUs). Fitting the MDS model using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, GPUs can deliver more than 100-fold speedups over serial calculations and thus extend Bayesian MDS to a big data setting. To illustrate, we employ Bayesian MDS to infer the rate at which different seasonal influenza virus subtypes use worldwide air traffic to spread around the globe. We examine 5392 viral sequences and their associated 14 million pairwise distances arising from the number of commercial airline seats per year between viral sampling locations. To adjust for shared evolutionary history of the viruses, we implement a phylogenetic extension to the MDS model and learn that subtype H3N2 spreads most effectively, consistent with its epidemic success relative to other seasonal influenza subtypes. Finally, we provide MassiveMDS, an open-source, stand-alone C++ library and rudimentary R package, and discuss program design and high-level implementation with an emphasis on important aspects of computing architecture that become relevant at scale.

10.
Nature ; 595(7869): 713-717, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34192736

RESUMO

After the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting in late summer 2020 that was deadlier and more difficult to contain1. Relaxed intervention measures and summer travel have been implicated as drivers of the second wave2. Here we build a phylogeographical model to evaluate how newly introduced lineages, as opposed to the rekindling of persistent lineages, contributed to the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe. We inform this model using genomic, mobility and epidemiological data from 10 European countries and estimate that in many countries more than half of the lineages circulating in late summer resulted from new introductions since 15 June 2020. The success in onward transmission of newly introduced lineages was negatively associated with the local incidence of COVID-19 during this period. The pervasive spread of variants in summer 2020 highlights the threat of viral dissemination when restrictions are lifted, and this needs to be carefully considered in strategies to control the current spread of variants that are more transmissible and/or evade immunity. Our findings indicate that more effective and coordinated measures are required to contain the spread through cross-border travel even as vaccination is reducing disease burden.


Assuntos
COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/virologia , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Genoma Viral/genética , Humanos , Incidência , Locomoção , Filogenia , Filogeografia , SARS-CoV-2/classificação , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , Fatores de Tempo , Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos
11.
Antimicrob Agents Chemother ; 65(8): e0234920, 2021 07 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34001508

RESUMO

Here, we identified a novel class of compounds which demonstrated good antiviral activity against dengue and Zika virus infection. These derivatives constitute intermediates in the synthesis of indole (ervatamine-silicine) alkaloids and share a tetracyclic structure, with an indole and a piperidine fused to a seven-membered carbocyclic ring. Structure-activity relationship studies indicated the importance of substituent at position C-6 and especially the presence of a benzyl ester for the activity and cytotoxicity of the molecules. In addition, the stereochemistry at C-7 and C-8, as well as the presence of an oxazolidine ring, influenced the potency of the compounds. Mechanism of action studies with two analogues of this family (compounds 22 and trans-14) showed that this class of molecules can suppress viral infection during the later stages of the replication cycle (RNA replication/assembly). Moreover, a cell-dependent antiviral profile of the compounds against several Zika strains was observed, possibly implying the involvement of a cellular factor(s) in the activity of the molecules. Sequencing of compound-resistant Zika mutants revealed a single nonsynonymous amino acid mutation (aspartic acid to histidine) at the beginning of the predicted transmembrane domain 1 of NS4B protein, which plays a vital role in the formation of the viral replication complex. To conclude, our study provides detailed information on a new class of NS4B-associated inhibitors and strengthens the importance of identifying host-virus interactions in order to tackle flavivirus infections.


Assuntos
Dengue , Infecção por Zika virus , Zika virus , Humanos , Alcaloides Indólicos , Proteínas não Estruturais Virais , Replicação Viral , Infecção por Zika virus/tratamento farmacológico
12.
Microbiol Resour Announc ; 10(18)2021 May 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33958404

RESUMO

We report here the complete genome sequence of ruloma virus, a novel paramyxovirus detected in a Machangu's brush-furred rat from Tanzania. Ruloma virus has the longest orthoparamyxovirus genome reported to date and forms a sister clade to all currently known members of the genus Jeilongvirus.

13.
Curr Protoc ; 1(4): e98, 2021 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33836121

RESUMO

Advances in sequencing technologies have tremendously reduced the time and costs associated with sequence generation, making genomic data an important asset for routine public health practices. Within this context, phylogenetic and phylogeographic inference has become a popular method to study disease transmission. In a Bayesian context, these approaches have the benefit of accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty, and popular implementations provide the possibility to parameterize the transition rates between locations as a function of epidemiological and ecological data to reconstruct spatial spread while simultaneously identifying the main factors impacting the spatial spread dynamics. Recent developments enable researchers to make use of travel history data of infected individuals in the reconstruction of pathogen spread, offering increased inference accuracy and mitigating sampling bias. Here, we describe a detailed workflow to reconstruct the spatial spread of a pathogen through Bayesian phylogeographic analysis in discrete space using these novel approaches, implemented in BEAST. The individual protocols focus on how to incorporate molecular data, covariates of spread, and individual travel history data into the analysis. © 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC. Basic Protocol 1: Creating a SARS-CoV-2 MSA using sequences from GISAID Basic Protocol 2: Setting up a discrete trait phylogeographic reconstruction in BEAUti Basic Protocol 3: Phylogeographic reconstruction incorporating travel history information Basic Protocol 4: Visualizing ancestral spatial trajectories for specific taxa.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/virologia , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19/genética , COVID-19/transmissão , Biologia Computacional/métodos , Bases de Dados de Ácidos Nucleicos , Humanos , Filogenia , Filogeografia/métodos , SARS-CoV-2/classificação , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Análise de Sequência de DNA/métodos , Software , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
14.
medRxiv ; 2021 Jul 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33688681

RESUMO

The emergence and rapid rise in prevalence of three independent SARS-CoV-2 "501Y lineages", B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1, in the last three months of 2020 prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionary capacity of SARS-CoV-2 to adapt to both rising population immunity, and public health interventions such as vaccines and social distancing. Viruses giving rise to the different 501Y lineages have, presumably under intense natural selection following a shift in host environment, independently acquired multiple unique and convergent mutations. As a consequence, all have gained epidemiological and immunological properties that will likely complicate the control of COVID-19. Here, by examining patterns of mutations that arose in SARSCoV-2 genomes during the pandemic we find evidence of a major change in the selective forces acting on various SARS-CoV-2 genes and gene segments (such as S, nsp2 and nsp6), that likely coincided with the emergence of the 501Y lineages. In addition to involving continuing sequence diversification, we find evidence that a significant portion of the ongoing adaptive evolution of the 501Y lineages also involves further convergence between the lineages. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring how members of these known 501Y lineages, and others still undiscovered, are convergently evolving similar strategies to ensure their persistence in the face of mounting infection and vaccine induced host immune recognition.

15.
PLoS Biol ; 19(3): e3001115, 2021 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33711012

RESUMO

Virus host shifts are generally associated with novel adaptations to exploit the cells of the new host species optimally. Surprisingly, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has apparently required little to no significant adaptation to humans since the start of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and to October 2020. Here we assess the types of natural selection taking place in Sarbecoviruses in horseshoe bats versus the early SARS-CoV-2 evolution in humans. While there is moderate evidence of diversifying positive selection in SARS-CoV-2 in humans, it is limited to the early phase of the pandemic, and purifying selection is much weaker in SARS-CoV-2 than in related bat Sarbecoviruses. In contrast, our analysis detects evidence for significant positive episodic diversifying selection acting at the base of the bat virus lineage SARS-CoV-2 emerged from, accompanied by an adaptive depletion in CpG composition presumed to be linked to the action of antiviral mechanisms in these ancestral bat hosts. The closest bat virus to SARS-CoV-2, RmYN02 (sharing an ancestor about 1976), is a recombinant with a structure that includes differential CpG content in Spike; clear evidence of coinfection and evolution in bats without involvement of other species. While an undiscovered "facilitating" intermediate species cannot be discounted, collectively, our results support the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 being capable of efficient human-human transmission as a consequence of its adaptive evolutionary history in bats, not humans, which created a relatively generalist virus.


Assuntos
COVID-19/virologia , Quirópteros/virologia , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Zoonoses Virais/virologia , Animais , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/transmissão , Evolução Molecular , Genoma Viral , Especificidade de Hospedeiro , Humanos , Pandemias , Filogenia , Receptores Virais/genética , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , Seleção Genética , Zoonoses Virais/genética , Zoonoses Virais/transmissão
16.
Res Sq ; 2021 Feb 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33594355

RESUMO

Following the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting late summer that was deadlier and more difficult to contain. Relaxed intervention measures and summer travel have been implicated as drivers of the second wave. Here, we build a phylogeographic model to evaluate how newly introduced lineages, as opposed to the rekindling of persistent lineages, contributed to the COVID-19 resurgence in Europe. We inform this model using genomic, mobility and epidemiological data from 10 West European countries and estimate that in many countries more than 50% of the lineages circulating in late summer resulted from new introductions since June 15th. The success in onwards transmission of these lineages is predicted by SARS-CoV-2 incidence during this period. Relatively early introductions from Spain into the United Kingdom contributed to the successful spread of the 20A.EU1/B.1.177 variant. The pervasive spread of variants that have not been associated with an advantage in transmissibility highlights the threat of novel variants of concern that emerged more recently and have been disseminated by holiday travel. Our findings indicate that more effective and coordinated measures are required to contain spread through cross-border travel.

17.
Mol Biol Evol ; 38(8): 3486-3493, 2021 07 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33528560

RESUMO

Spatially explicit phylogeographic analyses can be performed with an inference framework that employs relaxed random walks to reconstruct phylogenetic dispersal histories in continuous space. This core model was first implemented 10 years ago and has opened up new opportunities in the field of phylodynamics, allowing researchers to map and analyze the spatial dissemination of rapidly evolving pathogens. We here provide a detailed and step-by-step guide on how to set up, run, and interpret continuous phylogeographic analyses using the programs BEAUti, BEAST, Tracer, and TreeAnnotator.


Assuntos
Filogeografia/métodos , Software , Teorema de Bayes , Evolução Biológica
18.
Syst Biol ; 70(2): 258-267, 2021 Feb 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32687171

RESUMO

Relaxed random walk (RRW) models of trait evolution introduce branch-specific rate multipliers to modulate the variance of a standard Brownian diffusion process along a phylogeny and more accurately model overdispersed biological data. Increased taxonomic sampling challenges inference under RRWs as the number of unknown parameters grows with the number of taxa. To solve this problem, we present a scalable method to efficiently fit RRWs and infer this branch-specific variation in a Bayesian framework. We develop a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler to approximate the high-dimensional, correlated posterior that exploits a closed-form evaluation of the gradient of the trait data log-likelihood with respect to all branch-rate multipliers simultaneously. Our gradient calculation achieves computational complexity that scales only linearly with the number of taxa under study. We compare the efficiency of our HMC sampler to the previously standard univariable Metropolis-Hastings approach while studying the spatial emergence of the West Nile virus in North America in the early 2000s. Our method achieves at least a 6-fold speed increase over the univariable approach. Additionally, we demonstrate the scalability of our method by applying the RRW to study the correlation between five mammalian life history traits in a phylogenetic tree with $3650$ tips.[Bayesian inference; BEAST; Hamiltonian Monte Carlo; life history; phylodynamics, relaxed random walk.].

19.
Syst Biol ; 70(1): 181-189, 2021 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32415977

RESUMO

Markov models of character substitution on phylogenies form the foundation of phylogenetic inference frameworks. Early models made the simplifying assumption that the substitution process is homogeneous over time and across sites in the molecular sequence alignment. While standard practice adopts extensions that accommodate heterogeneity of substitution rates across sites, heterogeneity in the process over time in a site-specific manner remains frequently overlooked. This is problematic, as evolutionary processes that act at the molecular level are highly variable, subjecting different sites to different selective constraints over time, impacting their substitution behavior. We propose incorporating time variability through Markov-modulated models (MMMs), which extend covarion-like models and allow the substitution process (including relative character exchange rates as well as the overall substitution rate) at individual sites to vary across lineages. We implement a general MMM framework in BEAST, a popular Bayesian phylogenetic inference software package, allowing researchers to compose a wide range of MMMs through flexible XML specification. Using examples from bacterial, viral, and plastid genome evolution, we show that MMMs impact phylogenetic tree estimation and can substantially improve model fit compared to standard substitution models. Through simulations, we show that marginal likelihood estimation accurately identifies the generative model and does not systematically prefer the more parameter-rich MMMs. To mitigate the increased computational demands associated with MMMs, our implementation exploits recent developments in BEAGLE, a high-performance computational library for phylogenetic inference. [Bayesian inference; BEAGLE; BEAST; covarion, heterotachy; Markov-modulated models; phylogenetics.].

20.
Virus Evol ; 6(2): veaa085, 2020 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33343925

RESUMO

Pathogen-driven selection and past interbreeding with archaic human lineages have resulted in differences in human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-allele frequencies between modern human populations. Whether or not this variation affects pathogen subtype diversification is unknown. Here we show a strong positive correlation between ethnic diversity in African countries and both human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 p24gag and subtype diversity. We demonstrate that ethnic HLA-allele differences between populations have influenced HIV-1 subtype diversification as the virus adapted to escape common antiviral immune responses. The evolution of HIV Subtype B (HIV-B), which does not appear to be indigenous to Africa, is strongly affected by immune responses associated with Eurasian HLA variants acquired through adaptive introgression from Neanderthals and Denisovans. Furthermore, we show that the increasing and disproportionate number of HIV-infections among African Americans in the USA drive HIV-B evolution towards an Africa-centric HIV-1 state. Similar adaptation of other pathogens to HLA variants common in affected populations is likely.

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