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BMJ Open ; 9(2): e024708, 2019 02 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30772855


OBJECTIVE: To examine the total non-accidental mortality burden attributable to ambient temperatures and assess the effect modification of the burden by specific causes of death and individual characteristics in a high plateau area in southwest China. METHODS: Using daily mortality and meteorological data from 2009 to 2016, we applied a quasi-Poisson model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the temperature-mortality association with the assessment of attributable fraction and number. We calculated attributable fractions and deaths with 95% empirical CIs (eCIs), that were due to cold and heat, defined as temperatures below and above the median temperature, and for mild and extreme temperatures, defined by cut-offs at the 2.5th and 97.5th temperature percentiles. RESULTS: We analysed 89 467 non-accidental deaths; 4131 were attributable to overall temperatures, with an attributable fraction of 4.75% (95% eCI 2.33% to 6.79%). Most of the mortality burden was caused by cold (4.08%; 0.86% to 7.12%), whereas the burden due to heat was low and non-significant (0.67%; -2.44% to 3.64%). Extreme cold (1.17%; 0.58% to 1.69%) was responsible for 24.6% (ie, 1.17% divided by 4.75%) of the total death burden. In the stratification analyses, attributable risk due to cold was higher for cardiovascular than respiratory disease (6.18% vs 3.50%). We found a trend of risk of increased death due to ambient temperatures with increasing age, with attributable fractions of 1.83%, 2.27% and 6.87% for age ≤64, 65-74 and ≥75 years old, respectively. The cold-related burden was slightly greater for females, farmers, ethnic minorities and non-married individuals than their corresponding categories. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the burden of death was attributable to cold, and specific causes and individual characteristics might modify the mortality burden attributable to ambient temperatures. The results may help make preventive measures to confront climate change for susceptible population in this region.

Environ Res ; 150: 431-7, 2016 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27376930


BACKGROUND: Consistent evidence has shown excess mortality associated with cold temperature, but some important details of the cold-mortality association (e.g. slope and threshold) have not been adequately investigated and few studies focused on the cold effect in high-altitude areas of developing countries. We attempted to quantify the cold effect on mortality, identify the details, and evaluate effect modification in the distinct subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, a high plateau region in southwest China. METHODS: From daily mortality and meteorological data during 2009-2014, we used a quasi-Poisson model combined with a "natural cubic spline-natural cubic spline" distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the temperature-mortality relationship and then a simpler "hockey-stick" model to investigate the cold effect and details. RESULTS: Cold temperature was associated with increased mortality, and the relative risk of cold effect (1st relative to 10th temperature percentile) on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality for lag 0-21 days was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.66), 1.61 (1.28-2.02), and 1.13 (0.78-1.64), respectively. A 1°C decrease below a cold threshold of 9.1°C (8th percentile) for lags 0-21 was associated with a 7.35% (3.75-11.09%) increase in non-accidental mortality. The cold-mortality association was not significantly affected by cause-specific mortality, gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, occupation, or previous history of hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: There is an adverse impact of cold on mortality in Yuxi, China, and a temperature of 9.1°C is an important cut-off for cold-related mortality for residents.

Temperatura Baixa , Mortalidade , Idoso , China/epidemiologia , Clima , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino
Sci Total Environ ; 544: 627-34, 2016 Feb 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26674692


BACKGROUND: Consistent evidence has shown that high diurnal temperature range (DTR) is associated with excess mortality, but little is known about the subgroups in the association. We aimed to identify the effect modifiers, including individual characteristics and specific mortality causes, of the association in a high plateau region with large DTR and extensive ethnic minorities in China. METHODS: We conducted a case-only analysis in 77,319 non-accidental deaths in Yuxi during 2007-2014, and evaluated the effect modifiers of the association of high DTR exposure and mortality. All non-accidental deaths were divided into cardiovascular, respiratory, and "other" causes. High DTR days were defined as ≥ 90th percentile of DTR. RESULTS: Risk of mortality on high DTR days was associated with age 75-84 years (odds ratio 1.07; 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.14) and ≥ 85 years (1.16; 1.08-1.24) as compared with age ≤ 64 years. The risk of the association was less for the Dai ethnic minority than Chinese Han (0.85; 0.75-0.96). Farmers (1.08; 1.03-1.14) and people with hypertension (1.09; 1.02-1.16) showed greater risk of dying on high DTR days than non-farmers and people without hypertension, respectively. Compared with "other" mortality causes, the risk was greater with cardiovascular causes (1.09; 1.04-1.15), notably ischemic heart disease (1.16; 1.08-1.25) and myocardial infarction (1.18; 1.08-1.29) in heart disease (1.11; 1.04-1.17), and ischemic stroke (1.17; 1.06-1.28) in stroke deaths (1.09; 1.03-1.15), as well as chronic bronchitis (1.22; 1.11-1.33) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.12; 1.05-1.20) in respiratory deaths (1.11; 1.04-1.18). CONCLUSIONS: Individual characteristics and specific mortality causes can modify the association of high DTR and mortality. This knowledge may help in better targeting the vulnerable populations and developing more effective intervention strategies.

Exposição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Temperatura Alta , Mortalidade/tendências , Idoso , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Doenças Respiratórias/mortalidade